Posted on 10/29/2025 4:37:58 AM PDT by Red Badger
* J.D. Power predicts a 60% EV sales drop in October from September levels.
* Decline follows expiration of federal tax credits that boosted affordability.
* EVs will make up 5.2% of new sales, down from September’s record 12.9%.
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There was no getting around the fact that EV sales would take a massive blow without government subsidies. $7,500 is no small amount of cash, and tacking it onto the price of a car will make most vehicles way less appealing.
If J.D. Power is right, the loss of that credit has had an even larger impact on the EV market than many in the industry expected.
How Deep Is The Dip?
The research firm, working with GlobalData, predicts 54,673 EV retail sales for October. If that figure holds, it represents a 43.1 percent decline compared with October 2024, when 96,085 electric vehicles were sold. That would also mean a slide in market share from 8.5 percent to just 5.2 percent.
More: Germany Brings Back EV Incentives To Save Its Auto Industry
That’s a massive drop from the way September went. EVs hit a record 12.9 percent of the market that month, yet if October’s projected 54,673 EV sales come true, it would mark a 59.9 percent drop from September’s 136,211 units.
“The automotive industry is experiencing a significant recalibration in the electric vehicle segment,” said J.D. Power data analyst Tyson Jominy. “The recent EV market correction underscores a critical lesson: Consumers prefer having access to a range of powertrain options.”
Perhaps the wildest bit of this entire thing is that it could’ve been even worse for EVs. Many brands, including Hyundai, GM, and Tesla, rolled out different methods to ease the pain of losing the federal tax credit.
Had they not done those things, like cutting total costs, rolling out new cheaper models, and more… the hit would’ve no doubt been even harder.
Automotive executives also believe the EV market will stabilize and continue to grow over time. Both Ford’s current CEO and former CEO agreed on that point recently. Obviously, only time will tell.
Rising Prices, Fewer Discounts
Another interesting find is that average transaction prices are climbing as the EV share drops. The typical new-vehicle sold in October is expected to hit $46,057, about $1,000 higher than last year. Incentive spending has slipped to $2,674 per vehicle, roughly five percent of MSRP.
Analysts say the pullback in incentives largely stems from fewer EV sales. “EVs usually carry far steeper discounts,” noted one researcher. Average EV discounts rose to $13,161 as brands tried to offset lost tax credits, while non-EV discounts fell to $2,423, helping boost overall profitability despite softer EV demand.
The fad is over.
The September numbers are only that high BECAUSE the credits are expiring.
There’s only one reason any type of product needs to be subsidized.
When Germany ended EV subsidies a couple of years ago, EV sales fell 28% for the following year..
Not just with EVs, BTW.
Hybrids, too...
We saw that with the Inflation Raising Act. That changed the old EV tax credit to include EV's made by car makers who'd already exceeded the old EV tax credit limit (I think it was for the first 200K EV's made by each car manufacturer). So all of a sudden Tesla and GM EV's were eligible for the tax credit again, and all of a sudden Tesla and GM raised the prices. Of course since then, the lagging market for EV's has brought the price down again. And with the EV tax credit going away altogether the prices of EVs will go down even further.
I tell my fellow EV owners all the time (almost all of whom are leftists) that even EV owners are better off if there's less govt "help" and we let the free market do its thing.
I’m guessing when they cut back on production & the price is increased that there will be an effort to cut factory prices. You can guess what this will mean; less features & lower quality. Doesn’t matter to me; maybe they will go back to building something there is a demand for.
relating to your posts:
Musk is removing am/fm radios...trying to get price down... however ?
Gates and other tech giants need mega power for AI which enviro sources can not provide and explains his recent flip. Nukes are back, by necessity.
Not to despair, though. EV's will be ready to compete around the same time Nuclear Fusion becomes commercially viable, on a continually rolling 20 year window!
But I believe people can and should be able to buy and drive EVs if they fit their lifestyle choices, and I believe manufacturers should be free to produce and sell them without government subsidies from my taxes. There are a lot of people to whom and EV makes sense (those who also own an ICE vehicle for long trips, those who only drive a short distance each day and can recharge their car at home, that kind of thing)
I love the concept of EV technology, but doing it without having the underlying infrastructure and energy generation and transmission capability in place, or for STUPID and FAKE reasons such as "protecting the environment" or "reversing or stopping "Climate Change" is a totally abhorrent action.
And your last line: "...even EV owners are better off if there's less govt "help" and we let the free market do its thing..." shows you see the better pathway.
Kudos to you, FRiend...
“There is no worse tyranny than to force a man to pay for what he does not want merely because you think it would be good for him.”
― Robert A. Heinlein, The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress
Looking for a muscle car. Was shocked to learn the new Dodge Charger is ... electric. 😳
But there’s more! It has external speakers to simulate that hemi burble. lol 😂
EV graveyards in China ,https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCh2N0NJ6M4
Well, duuhhh!
What does it mean to the EV charging experience? You get what you pay for. Slow or nonworking chargers. Often no place to use the restroom while it charges. Lines of everybody else wanting the "free" charge.
But if you go to a charger you have to pay for, it's completely different. Last year I drove home from Canada (1,740 miles one way) and all but 2 of my charging stops were done in 10-15 minutes while I used the restroom. Clean restrooms and good food and drinks because you're paying for it -- they want you to have a good charging experience and stop again the next time you drive that way (and post on EV forum apps like Plugshare what your charge speed and experience was like).
One of those longer charging stops was because I let it charge more than usual (it slows way down after reaching 85% and going all the way to 100%) because I wanted to be out of the car for a while and walked across the street to get a bite to eat. So excluding the charging stop that I made take a while, the only charging stop that took longer than I wanted (it wound up being 25 minutes) was the one in Canada on a remote highway with few options (an early adopter at a restaurant and gas station with probably no ability to run a higher amperage power line out to that area).
End result? 32.5 hours of driving/charging/eating time to go 1,740 miles (not counting a 10 hour hotel stay and a half our of stopping to do work on my laptop). Which is about what time it'd take me to do the trip in a gas car. But only because I respected the free market to give me the better driving experience. (And because I researched ahead of time that the trip had plenty of fast chargers along the way, otherwise I would have taken my older gas pickup, same for if I had made the trip up north during the winter.) If I had expected a govt funded trip it would have taken a lot longer.
Team Biden made a crucial error when they attempted to force EVs on the public. Let the free market decide. If and when EVs can compete in price and quality, AND the infrastructure is built for mass charging (both outside and at home), then the consumer will make the choice about what they want.
That’s too bad.
Liberals are very good at spending other people’s money for their virtue grandstand.
‘gold = golf’ ... in this case both are accurate.
Thanks to Pelosi CAFE, the vehicle price inflation has no boundaries.
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