Posted on 10/29/2025 4:37:58 AM PDT by Red Badger
* J.D. Power predicts a 60% EV sales drop in October from September levels.
* Decline follows expiration of federal tax credits that boosted affordability.
* EVs will make up 5.2% of new sales, down from September’s record 12.9%.
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There was no getting around the fact that EV sales would take a massive blow without government subsidies. $7,500 is no small amount of cash, and tacking it onto the price of a car will make most vehicles way less appealing.
If J.D. Power is right, the loss of that credit has had an even larger impact on the EV market than many in the industry expected.
How Deep Is The Dip?
The research firm, working with GlobalData, predicts 54,673 EV retail sales for October. If that figure holds, it represents a 43.1 percent decline compared with October 2024, when 96,085 electric vehicles were sold. That would also mean a slide in market share from 8.5 percent to just 5.2 percent.
More: Germany Brings Back EV Incentives To Save Its Auto Industry
That’s a massive drop from the way September went. EVs hit a record 12.9 percent of the market that month, yet if October’s projected 54,673 EV sales come true, it would mark a 59.9 percent drop from September’s 136,211 units.
“The automotive industry is experiencing a significant recalibration in the electric vehicle segment,” said J.D. Power data analyst Tyson Jominy. “The recent EV market correction underscores a critical lesson: Consumers prefer having access to a range of powertrain options.”
Perhaps the wildest bit of this entire thing is that it could’ve been even worse for EVs. Many brands, including Hyundai, GM, and Tesla, rolled out different methods to ease the pain of losing the federal tax credit.
Had they not done those things, like cutting total costs, rolling out new cheaper models, and more… the hit would’ve no doubt been even harder.
Automotive executives also believe the EV market will stabilize and continue to grow over time. Both Ford’s current CEO and former CEO agreed on that point recently. Obviously, only time will tell.
Rising Prices, Fewer Discounts
Another interesting find is that average transaction prices are climbing as the EV share drops. The typical new-vehicle sold in October is expected to hit $46,057, about $1,000 higher than last year. Incentive spending has slipped to $2,674 per vehicle, roughly five percent of MSRP.
Analysts say the pullback in incentives largely stems from fewer EV sales. “EVs usually carry far steeper discounts,” noted one researcher. Average EV discounts rose to $13,161 as brands tried to offset lost tax credits, while non-EV discounts fell to $2,423, helping boost overall profitability despite softer EV demand.
Really only a limited number of people who want overpriced gold carts, just not practical and too expensive for your average citizen.
gold = golf
Several auto makers listed their MSRP before the subsidies were announced. Later when the vehicles hit the showroom, I noticed the MSRPs had jumped commensurate with the subsidy. It’s like Target raising the price of something X% before a sale of X% off. If you want a good example of Net Zero, that’s it.
At Hertz rent a car, you choose your own. We got in an SUV, it turned out to be a half-charged EV. We quickly jumped out and got in a gas-powered car. We certainly do not want to be looking around for a charging station in a city we are not familiar with and hanging around for God knows how long charging up an EV.
I own a 2022 model SUV, but 4 months ago bought a tiny 2010 Fiat 500 with little to no electronics - to zip around town.
I find my big SUV can get comparable fuel efficiency to the 12 years older Fiat.
Cars are improving their fuel efficiency and if you add in hybrids, then there may not be such a BIG market for pure play EVs. I think there will still be a market, but not for all cases.
It’s almost like government subsidies are a false prop for marginal products, products that fail if said props are removed.
I’ll wait until they get ALL the bugs out.................
Kinda like Food Stamps for rich people....................
Or Publix BOGO sales. Double the price then say it’s a ‘sale’......................
“Automotive executives also believe the EV market will stabilize and continue to grow over time. Both Ford’s current CEO and former CEO agreed on that point recently. Obviously, only time will tell.”
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We’ll see, but that’s the way it should have always been.
Let the consumer decide whether there is a market or not.....instead of the federal government shoving them down our throats.
If you're talking about EVs, "getting ALL the bugs out" means the EV runs flawlessly with only a cell phone sized solar panel on the roof that only needs a few minutes sunlight a day to be fully charged.
I'll wait till then.
I would expect the October sales to be well of the mark because ending of subsidies brought demand forward. I think it will take a couple of months before we a better picture of how bad sales will be...
Even with the subsidies these EVs were sold at huge losses for most auto manufacturers. This has been the single biggest factor in the massive price inflation we have seen among ALL vehicles since 2021. These companies ran up their prices on their ICE vehicles just to stay in business.
Exactly!
Car rentals are shining example why NOT to use EV!
You need a car ready for use, and you have no time for looking for charger and charging.
My first check and demand when renting a car: NO EV!
Car rentals, especially in Europe, are trying to push EV on you, sometimes they are very tricky in that endeavor!
Meanwhile. while EV sales are getting battered, Tesla stock closed at a new all time high yesterday high yesterday and is up more than 70% since he left the administration. The best thing Elon did for his pocket is to get out of politics and away from the crazies burning down his franchises.
With Bill Gates announcement that climate change is no longer a priority, there will be even less EV sales.
Last I knew, almost half the existing homes in this country still have a 60A electrical service.
Residential zoning codes will prevent others from plugging in.
That’s gonna limit the market.
We were renting a car in Albuquerque recently and I said we do not want an EV. Counter guy said no problem, we don’t have any as they are not practical here. How about a dodge charger. Done!
And then there are the insurance issues...
And not just if you buy one.
Also for rented EVs, and loaners from dealers.
So not just buyer beware.
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