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Posted on 10/07/2025 1:51:43 PM PDT by Jumper
An analysis of the Russo-Urainian War in 2025. I look at events essentially from the draw down in Kursk to the overall trajectory of the combat lines. Finally, I take a look at constraints on the west and challenges faced.
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Click here: to donate by Credit Card Or here: to donate by PayPal Or by mail to: Free Republic, LLC - PO Box 9771 - Fresno, CA 93794 Thank you very much and God bless you. |
Among bloggers, Big Serge only makes rare updates (every 2 months or so), but I always find them tremendously insightful. Simplicius I consider a bit of an idiot, but a well-informed one who pulls in a ton of information (albeit with a more overt bias), so I keep up with his blog as well. It's a good counterweight to standard MSM programming on any subject related to the SMO.
I am what evolves from the persosnal attacks of zeepers on Free Republic. I have been here since the first year of operation. I served 20 years in the US Army, 5 in civil service and over eight years with the department of state foreign service. I have worked in numerous general officer’s offices, and I have worked in war planning and operations sections.
Today’s piece is written from several months of different reports of which everyday there are many.
Most of the places mentioned in the first half of the piece are now historic and I tried to show how the Russians moved, how the Ukrainians were defeated.
That Russia is winning in 3 of 5 cities they are fighting in, but not exploiting any of the battles, you begin to understand how Russia is keeping all these key logistical fortified cities hot, and how it draws Ukraine across vast distances to fight and die. Russia only moves when Ukraine no longer has ample forces left to defend.
In Kursk, I gave factual figures and the actual NATO/Ukrainian objectives as well as a feel for what happened in the first month there.
I am the ANTI-ZEEPER. I serve to counter the BS they post. It is personal, and I have little respect for them and their constant personal attacks.
One day I believe that everything I have stated to have happened will be validated, and not denied by zeepers under the fog of their propoganda.
Thus, bookmark my comments and someday when the chips have fallen you will see that on balance I will be vindicated.
Zeepers operate like democrats or liberals. From the beginning of Biden’s war they have supported every bit of now proven Ukrainian propoganda passed to Britian and then to the US and repeated verbatim. All the news in the US is recycled from Ukrainian propoganda.
Trump caught between his support for the war, and his desire to end it... gave up on ending it when he realized he was not going to be able to prosecute all the deep state and DNC’ers who used Ukraine to attack both himself (Trump) and Russia.
The libtard education system in the US has producedd a seriously dumbed down product and Zeepers are the type of product that system has endavored to produce. People who wear race, gender, political hate on their sleeves and people who have no intellectual curiosity. Their education has left them satisfied with soundbites of little or no substance. To the Zeeper the government Press is their primary source of correct information.
Zeepers all together do less actual research on Ukraine than anyone who posts something original form non-Uke provided sources.
Thanx, I too follow military summary channel but he is a bit of Ukie homer. I put it 1.75 speed or 2.0 and try to read as it plays. I’ve bookmarked the two references in your second para - got to get to the gym for a run and a swim.
The entire operation has been "draw in and destroy." IMO planned as such. Russia just moved their borders a bit to the left, creating a black hole that sucked up hundreds of billions in NATO money, thousands of tons of equipment and uncountable thousands of Ukrainian lives.
As with all our s**thole wars over the last decades, we have nothing to show for it. Our cbicken-s**t neocons seem to love failure and generational theft.
I agree that Odessa is a likely target.
If the math works, Russia would be foolish, at this point, not to take it. It RUSSIAN.
Zelensky, the NWO and dum-fk American pols could have prevented it, but annexation likely inevitable now.
Sonor 21 by Larry Johnson is on substack. I enjoy MacGregor for his analysis. The Duran is a bit too much but they do take shots at all the leaders in the world; under the surface though they are pro-russian, but Old Alex does seem to have a substantive command of economics, international law, foreign relations in general, and a historical grasp.
I oftentimes go to https://liveuamap.com/ and then jump to Telegram and then I keep asking Telegram for information on whatever reason I’m there for and it is wild. Sometimes I find frontline correpsondants on both sides posting independent of both sides governments.
The propoganda supporting Ukraine and Ukriane is Winning the War google searches is so plentiful and so bogus to anyone who ever dealth with analysing NK propoganda or that of the various Islamic terrorist groups.
I was once given a copy of an actual KKK newspaper - I was directed to read it and determine if it was real. I read the entire thing not realizing that it was actual current KKK newspaper copy. After that experience, I have never encountered any propoganda that tripped me up - but Ukrainian propoganda on many levels is just KKK recycled racist BS too. I posted about the leading presidential candidate to repalce Zelinski - his is the father of AZOV. I don’t think a single Zeeper replied... go figure.
I heard from Alex or Alexander [The Duran] that they’re going Substack - probably to try to get away from the YouBoobs.
Gosh he always goes on for 75 minutes...
I always increase speed for Alexander to 1.75...
Any combat experience among the three of you?
O_O >-< O_O >-< O_O !!!
...and after a few minutes of Google searching key words and phrases, look at what I found.
This is copied and pasted from Marat Khairullin's substack, Russia's Plan for 2025. Khairullin is a another one of many Russian z-Nationalist who has time to make near daily pro-Russian content about Ukraine. It is also on Larry Johnson's Sonar21 and a few other places, none of which are friendly to the US getting in Russia's way. The first of many problems is, this was originally posted on March 19, seven months ago. I am no cultured academic policy expert of the Moscow based Russo-centric variety. Even if I was, this seems a little bit dated to portray as a current assessment of the war.
The more serious issues are the OP presented it as his own and edited it to hide its origins.
That is plagiarism, pure and simple.
The edits are only in this thread, not anywhere else this is posted on Sonar21 or justplainpolitics forum.
Now let's examine some rather curious edits. Khairullin wrote this:
"It is already known that in the first four days, we eliminated about a third of their frontline air defense potential, not counting other equipment. But they were seeking media attention."Jumper posted this, showing edits in bold and underline, and deletions in strike through:"Naturally, they failed to reach Kurchatov. Our military contained their offensive."
"It is already known that In the first four days, Russia eliminated about a third of Ukraine’s frontline air defense potential, not counting other equipment.That is just a few examples of the editing of what is posted here, not in the original or anywhere else it was posted.But they were seeking media attention.""Naturally, they failed to reach Kurchatov.
Our military contained their offensive."
Jumper, since it is clearly not your work despite what you claim in the OP for this thread, did you bother to look up what else Khairullin thinks about the United States or President Trump?
All these pro-invasion, anti-EU, anti-NATO Russian nationalists are only pro-U.S. when we stay out of their way and let them take what they want. Once the U.S. opposes them, we are their enemy #1.
Every. Single. Time.
Good you finally did some research and it it not word for word. He actually attributes to the Russian General staff. I took the essence and put it together with other sources.
Now, can you actually refute it. No. It is a plan that is both in keeping with the objectives a d timelines the Russians stated.
You can clearly see that Ukraine is dancing to the Russian op tempo and advancement timeliness.
The way he presents this is a timeline in motion since March and April 25.
Thus NATO is truly reacting to a conflict Russia is dictating.
But this not all I posted.
Now if you can read and understand, Ukraine has been reduced to bleeding and is already defeated.
Now go do some more research and learn something else on any topic.
--- "...and after a few minutes of Google searching key words and phrases, look at what I found."
Okay. I did that too.
In comment # 31., it is claimed that Jumper posted this, showing edits in bold and underline, and deletions in strike through: "It is already known that in the first four days"One sometimes cribs things, and annotation is the better option.Going to the original post for the thread, as simple to find the text in the OP is easy the check. Start at the top of the page and so the simple search. [ Control + f ] In the OP post it matches none, though Widget places quote around, as if it does.
Another sample -- "we eliminated about a third of their frontline" a phrase appearing in comment # 31 but NOT in the opening post, nor anywhere in the thread excepting that provided by Widget.
When someone makes a paste up of various sources, of course sources can be searched for. So "The Kursk Debacle continues to make itself felt" was searched for through Google.
Here is the result: Google search for "The Kursk Debacle continues to make itself felt." The search yields this Free Republic thread.
Searching for the second sentence: Google search for ""The Kursk Adventure by Ukraine was a suicide attack"
How about towards the end of the article? ""The real problem for the NATO alliance is financial."
Here is the result: Google search for "The real problem for the NATO alliance is financial.." The search yields this Free Republic thread. Only Free Republic.
Placing quotations around a statement tells it is a quote from another source. Seeing that some use it inexpertly -- Jumper and Widget Jr both in this thread -- is less than optimal.
For that and in this thread, I posted some additional "Ukraine" sources. If citing a portion of a sentence from a blogger;s friend in Moscow -- not Khairullin. but some guy who uses the moniker "Zinderneuf" and written last March 19th -- is proof of anything, then here a a number of sources, verifiable and hotlinked to speak to Ukraine in this last week.
In Zelenksy's own words.
Because he is one of them.
No, you plagiarized it and claimed it as your own. Just changing a few words does not make it otherwise.
Face it...you got caught.
"This is copied and pasted from Marat Khairullin's substack, Russia's Plan for 2025."I can see the links on my browser, you can see them on yours.
So how about going to the link for the original that I posted, compare the original to what Jumper posted, and compare the text as I did.
That would be a nightmare trying to hold and they learned their lesson in the Cold War. Long term this drains them (requires constant and permanent expenditure of resources).
They have almost everything they want at this point.
Russia achieved their political goal: prevent NATO accession by Ukraine.
They have achieved their military goals, seize the ethnic Russian areas.
I fairly sure it's not Russia that has been reduced, it's Ukraine.
It's Ukraine that is hard up for troops, chasing kids down on the streets for their army, that has seen their economy contract by 1/3, a damaged infrastructure, canceled elections (essentially is a dictatorship but as so often is the case, when it's a dictator that does our bidding he's suddenly acceptable).
While Russia is mostly relying on contracted soldiers for the Ukraine campaign, their economy didn't collapse (and they aren't getting hundreds of billions in aid like Ukraine is from the EU and US), their infrastructure is fine, the political apparatus is running unaltered.
I also don't think the casualty reports floated in the West are anywhere near accurate. We don't report on Ukrainian casualties and float these inflated dreamed up numbers for Russia. Already when you had the Newsweek leaked documents casualties were reported in our MSM ~1/3 higher for Russia than actual, while Ukraine was reporting none at all. But in the meantime you've had a casualty rich counter offensive and Kursk where Ukraine managed to burn up many of their troops, and Russia reorganized, changed their tactics and is trying to conserve their forces in what they also is a long term war of attrition (they came in wanting to end this fast).
I think we're fed a line of BS because people always want to wear the winning teams jersey / shirt. You have to keep morale up and support would fade even more if people had this idea in their head that Ukraine is losing, which they factually are. So we create new ideas of what defines winning, or move the goal post.
Point being, Russia I don't think is trying all that hard at this point. They already achieved their political and military objectives.
Even worse, Khairullin's article was written in March, about events that happened last year, and you are treating it as current.
Plagiarism and bad faith are not good ways to start honest discussion, let alone demand it after getting caught.
Your ideas are no more yours/original either.
Attacking the person is an admission that you have no argument to counter his.
But your copy and paste: your constant attempts at pretending Russia is the Soviet Union or wants to rebuild their Cold War empire as well as description of how the war is going is ridiculous (not reasonable/feasible) and factually incorrect, not tied to the physical reality.
The true indicator, the one thing that tells you more that anything else is what percent of the economy is under government control (the means of production) and ironically before this war, Russia had a LOWER government economic participation rate than the US!!! LOWER, than almost every Euro zone country:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_government_budget_as_percentage_of_GDP
As we copy and paste to create our own arguments based on ideas we find in the MSM, blogs, whatever, you at least should choose things that are tied to the physical reality around you, not just sound good argument that you really-really wish were true, but then attempt to call someone else out for doing what you, I, and everyone else here does (synthesize an argument based on what we find).
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