Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Readint of the Tea Leaves: Project Ukraine
self | 7 Oct 25 | self

Posted on 10/07/2025 1:51:43 PM PDT by Jumper

An analysis of the Russo-Urainian War in 2025. I look at events essentially from the draw down in Kursk to the overall trajectory of the combat lines. Finally, I take a look at constraints on the west and challenges faced.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Conspiracy; History; Military/Veterans
KEYWORDS: briangriffinisadog; gidgetgoestokiev; humorlesszeepers; magic8ball; nato; proxywar; putinthewarpig; readint; russia; russiansuicide; russiantrollfarm; trumpswar; ukraine; usa; vladtheimploder; welfarewar

Click here: to donate by Credit Card

Or here: to donate by PayPal

Or by mail to: Free Republic, LLC - PO Box 9771 - Fresno, CA 93794

Thank you very much and God bless you.


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-48 next last
The Kursk Debacle continues to make itself felt. The Kursk Adventure by Ukraine was a suicide attack, similar to the Battle of the Buldge. Russia has reported Ukrainian probes all across the line from Bryansk into the Belgorod regions. AFU sabotoge and recon groups were active. Ukriane choose to strike the Kursk region with operational plans that called for reaching the Kurchatov Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.

Russia forces had noticed the probes and that Ukraine seemed to be planning something, but Russia did not expect Ukraine to amass such significant forces. Due to accumulation of massive forces for this incursion, they were able to literally advance over the bodies of their own fallen as they pushed forward. Ukraine was seeking a media victory as well as battlefield success.

In the first four days, Russia eliminated about a third of Ukraine’s frontline air defense potential, not counting other equipment. Naturally, they failed to reach Kurchatov. 

To understand the folly of Ukrainian actions, one must look back to the vaunted Counter Offensive of 2023. During the AFU Counter Offensive they lost up to a thousand soldiers a day. During the Kursk Offensive, Ukraine casualties exceeded those of the Counter Offiensive by stunning numbers up to double or nearly thriple the losses. The Propoganda War was in full swing.

As a result, their advance of about thirty kilometers on a relatively small section of the front cost them approximately sixty thousand personnel. Ukrainian troop losses in equipment were also staggering. In the first days, they lost up to two to three dozen tanks per day.

Ukraine had trained and prepared for months with about 30,000 soldiers for the Kursk Offensive and within a month, they were gone and Ukraine had replaced the Combat Group that began the offensive. Here was the moment grabbing soldiers off the streets became a meme in Ukraine. Ukraine doubled down and replaced initial losses with scarce reserves pulled from everywhere, including freshly mobilized individuals rounded up from the streets.

Once it became apparent that capturing the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, the Ukrainians were counting on Russia to panic and redeploy forces from Pokrovsk to weaken the Russian forces pushing there.

As many had pointed out Ukraine oftentimes times their attacks to coincide with other calendar events, such as US elections, meetings of NATO or the EU, or visits by US officials to Kiev.

After a long winter campaign, by early March 2025 the Ukrainians hold only a few villages near the border and a few ravines where they tried to regroup during their retreat. The diplomacy had never occurred. Russia did not panic nor move soldiers from Pokrovsk. Instead, the Russians were maintianing classic Russian strategy whereby they relentlessly maintain artillery and stand off weapons contact with the retreating forces. The Russians pushed Ukrainian forces out of Kursk into the Sumy region, but did not actually follow up with an actual attack into Ukraine at that moment. The Kursk Offensive ended with Ukrainian losses of 76,000 soldiers, over five thousand pieces of heavy equipment and vehicles, and the bulk of the entirety of Ukraine's Air Defense Forces had been destroyed nation-wide. It also ended with Russian troops at a critical juncture in Sumy near Zhuravka, Novenkoe and Basovka.

The Russian Constant Contact Campaign throughout 2025.

Putin directs Russian forces to create a security zone. From the Kharkov region, where a security zone was already being formed along the line Volchansk–Velykyi Burluk–Kupyansk, adding to the Seversky Donets River and its cascade of reservoirs to the west, creates an ideal security zone. This is probably on the first stage of security zones, and Russia is going to create or negotiate a demilitarized zone extending to the Dnieper River under Russiancontrol, including Odessa and Nikolaev.

Yes Odessa.

The Russian plan is revealing itself to anyone who actually cares to ask, what if, how, and when, if ever at all.

There is already the creation of a security zone along the Volchansk-Kupyansk highway. Russia is carrying out a slow grinding war whereby stand off munitions and weapons are employed to do the bulk of the destruction of the entrenched Ukrainians. Nearly the final stage, there is a well developed cauldron around Kupyansk, where one pincer is near Dvurechnaya, and the other is near Kruglyakovka-Senkovo. (if this were a Viet Nam film, you would be hearing CCR’s Can’t You See). Russian forces have been tiddying up the AFU forces on the (eastern) bank of the Oskol River in the Borovsk direction. This is also part of the Kharkov region. Its significance lies in covering the main supply line to the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, which runs through Izyum. Russian forces are pursuing the Liman direction broke through in the Ukrainian defense line near Kolodezi. By working to capture Liman it opens the door to Slavyansk from the rear, and cuts off a major supply line to Seversk. Russian forces moved from Belogorovka to the Serebryanka direction. By late August Russian forces captured the Serebryansky/Kremenets Forest, a heavily fortified area near Seversk, marking a significant shift in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This development left the Seversk fortress vulnerable from the north and opens new avenues for Russian offensives towards Slaviansk. In the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), the last fortress Ukraine held was Chasov Yar. From Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk, the Russians have defeated Ukraine. Now we are witnessing Russian advances in to Toretsk area. The next key area was, of course, Chasov Yar. This was the last fortress of the Ukrainians, covering Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk, which is currently the capital of the occupied part of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). Russia took and held the main heights near Chasov Yar allowing the advance advance toward Kramatorsk and the road connecting it to Konstantinovka. The complete liberation of Chasov Yar opens up several directions for us. Cutting off the supply route from Kramatorsk isolates Konstantinovka and, by extension, the Toretsk sector. By mid-summer, almost every settlement near Toretsk was taken.

Pokrovsk was a harder nut to crack, but Russian tactics saw their forces bypass Pokrovsk, cutting off the supply route through Rodinskoe. South of Pokrovsk, is open terrain, where they can move toward the city’s supply line from Pavlograd and into the rear of the AFU grouping on the Zaporozhye direction, all the way to Dnepropetrovsk, through areas without strong fortifications. The vaunted Ukrainian August-September into October Counter Offensive in the local areas north of Pokrovsk collapsed the first week of October. Capturing the Tonenkoe line was followed by Selidovo, and once Ugledar fell, it led to the encirclement of AFU forces near Pokrovsk.

The result of Russian tactics which maintained constant pressure, without actually exploiting any operational breakthrough's by themselves, but rather waiting for the pressure to cause main unified fortified line has been fragmented. Now is the time when Russia will send some diversionary attacks preceeding the opening of actual main attacks. Russia does not actually have to capture every stronghold such as Dnepropetrovsk or as the Uke’s call it Dnipro. It can be blockaded by destroying the bridges. As this occurs Russian forces will move farther into the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions… then Odessa. The literal demands by the west that Russia allow a Cease Fire actually have an ulterior motive, which is to sneak in French, British, Polish, German and other Baltic states soldiers into Ukraine, but the primary reason is to build fortifications. The US is beset by conditions under Trump that were not hindrances for Ukraine under Biden. The US green lighting the overthrow of Syria, the attack on Iran which is apparently not over yet, and the diversion of supplies and equipment to South America for a regime change by military force in Venezuela is underway. Zelinski suffers for these diversions of supplies. The Pivot to China underway since the early 2000s with repositioning from Europe to the Pacific is underway as well. Contrary to popular belief, the US does not have the energy resources itself now in LNG and Oil to support our allies whom are demanded to stop using Russian energy. The energy sector or Oil trade takes time for contracts to change on the world stage. Thus Trump has but one avenue to secure energy for the NATO coalition and that is taking it from Venezuela. Canada has a refinery sitting idle without the oil from Venezuela. Once Trump captures this oil for US Oil companies he can continue his military campaigns. In recent days negotiations between the US and the Maduro government indicated that Trump is demanding the leader leave and the new government hand over all oil to the United States and it’s oil companies. Now Trump must pursue his military option since Maduro rejected his demands of peaceful surrender.

On the US domestic front, we are seeing an increase in the use of military force to secure Trump’s power and control of US DNC cities who are in rebellion. In the case of multiple regional wars, Trump must control the DNC cities if he finds himself at war in Venezula, Iran, Syria… as well as the Baltics or to support Germany in the event of Ukraine war expansion from the EU states who are vocally calling for US intervention into Ukraine with boots on the ground.

The real problem for the NATO alliance is financial. They are in recession. Governments are teetering on the brink of fascism and collapse. While Trump is in no danger in DC, the DNC controlled cities are a dumpster fire waiting to happen with financial purse strings being cut. The EU and US are both/all experiencing the failure of fiat currencies. Trust in western financial institutions has waned over short-sighted misuse of Swift, sanctions, stealing assets, telling countries who they are allowed to trade, and the IMF payment system exploiting or maintianing a third world locked into a poverty cycle – which they are now breaking out from under through a combination of Brics support and expulsion of French, and US forces form Africa and the French in the Asian Pacific.

1 posted on 10/07/2025 1:51:43 PM PDT by Jumper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Jumper

My opinion is the Russians are wasting lives with their Donetsk efforts.

Ukraine knows the Russians are almost sure to come and is ready to kill them off.


2 posted on 10/07/2025 2:01:46 PM PDT by Brian Griffin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jumper

“The real problem for the NATO alliance is financial.”

The Brits alone made 170 million artillery shells in WW1 I understand.


3 posted on 10/07/2025 2:03:39 PM PDT by Brian Griffin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jumper

“”””””The complete liberation of Chasov Yar opens up several directions for us. Cutting off the supply route from Kramatorsk isolates Konstantinovka and, by extension, the Toretsk sector.””””””

It does? The complete liberation of Chasov Yar opens up several directions for the side that America and our allies supports?


4 posted on 10/07/2025 2:04:02 PM PDT by ansel12 ((NATO warrior under Reagan, and RA under Nixon, bemoaning the pro-Russians from Vietnam to Ukraine.))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jumper

“The EU and US are both/all experiencing the failure of fiat currencies.”

I was in Publix, a Florida-based grocery store chain, last night.

I felt almost like an Italian in the final years of the lira.


5 posted on 10/07/2025 2:06:25 PM PDT by Brian Griffin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jumper

The US military strategy was based on DEI.

The Russian military strategy is based on DIE!

That being said, it is best for Ukraine to get a deal done before the Russians finally get their act together.


6 posted on 10/07/2025 2:15:01 PM PDT by Brian Griffin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jumper

An interesting piece.


7 posted on 10/07/2025 2:15:51 PM PDT by ComputerGuy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jumper
That was a good read. What do you rely on for your primary sources of battlefront information?

My own take is that the operation north of Pokrovsk was designed to draw in and destroy the bulk of remaining Ukrainian assault forces. That appears to be in the mopping-up stages now. With little capacity for manuever and counter-attack in the future, the next stage of the war will devolve into embattled Ukrainian garrisons trying to cope with Russian infiltration in between their major positions, as they are cut off from resupply.

I agree that Odessa is a likely target. Although it wasn't part of the original vision of the SMO, taking the rest of the Black Sea coast will link up Russia with Transnistria. More important, it will eliminate the use of Ukrainian seaports as logistics hubs in the event of a future invasion by NATO. That would force them to rely on overland (rail/road) logistics to support an invasion into the Russian heartland.

8 posted on 10/07/2025 2:28:26 PM PDT by EnderWiggin1970
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ansel12; Jumper

He means Russia. This was apparently written by a Russian propagandist. My guess it has been cut and pasted from another work of orc fiction.

Quite the revealing slip about who “Jumper” is, if you ask me.

Nice catch.


9 posted on 10/07/2025 2:29:39 PM PDT by Apparatchik (Русские свиньи, идите домой)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Brian Griffin

“ The real problem for the NATO alliance is financial.”
…………………………………………………………………..
The Brits alone made 170 million artillery shells in WW1 I understand.
***************************************************

So how many artillery shells are they making now? You have to understand that WW1 was over a century ago. Britain today is nothing like WW1 Britain. The ruling elite of Britain today are more interested in promoting a form of national ethnic, cultural and economic suicide than they are in promoting national strength.

Just sayin’.


10 posted on 10/07/2025 2:37:51 PM PDT by House Atreides (I’m now ULTRA-MAGA-PRO-MAX)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Apparatchik
--- "This was apparently written by a Russian propagandist. "

Ukraine is in good hands, so one shouldn't be too concerned....


11 posted on 10/07/2025 2:45:36 PM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: House Atreides; Brian Griffin

Besides, advanced nations don’t rely on artillery as much as Russia/North Korea and Ukraine are in their war.

We want artillery but we don’t intend to and aren’t designed to fight a static blood intensive trench war.


12 posted on 10/07/2025 2:55:51 PM PDT by ansel12 ((NATO warrior under Reagan, and RA under Nixon, bemoaning the pro-Russians from Vietnam to Ukraine.))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Worldtraveler once upon a time

Pretty pathetic attempt to divert away from clear proof that Russian propagandists are accessing this site.

Why are you defending them?


13 posted on 10/07/2025 2:56:39 PM PDT by Apparatchik (Русские свиньи, идите домой)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Worldtraveler once upon a time

The perfect response. 😁🤙


14 posted on 10/07/2025 3:16:27 PM PDT by Robert DeLong
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: Jumper

On the one hand, Russia looks like it’s going to win this thing.

On the other hand, Ukraine looks like it’s going to win this thing.


15 posted on 10/07/2025 3:18:55 PM PDT by lurk (u)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Apparatchik
--- "Pretty pathetic attempt to divert away from clear proof that Russian propagandists are accessing this site. Why are you defending them?"

I had an exchange some days back with another Freeper who asserted something and supplied a single URL. That was enough to track the whole back with verified hotlinks to -- surprise -- the Open Society Foundations and Geoger Soros. That Freeper did not reply in anyway thereafter.

Propaganda is what everybody does. There is Russian propaganda, Ukrainian propaganda, and propaganda eminating from many, many places. Some like one, and some like another.

I like verifiable things, not propaganda. For this I like to crosscheck and tracj back and learn who is behind some messaging.

If you are of the sort that thinks Ukraine is winning, then Ukraine is in "good hands", as that verifiable photo shows.

If you think that Russia is winning, then that historic photo is ironic, at the minimum.

As to the war between non-NATO Ukraine and non-NATO Russia, it will end as it will end. Some predict on its outcome and others predict another. I am not one to make predictions of this nature.

As to current events in this sad situation, here are some hotlinks:

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has alleged that drones and missiles fired by Russia against his country are filled with parts sourced from Western companies.

In a social media post on Monday, Zelenskyy said the hundreds of weapons used in Russian attacks over the previous two nights contained

tens of thousands of components produced by firms in the United States, United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, South Korea, the Netherlands, Taiwan and China."

Source: Ukraine's Zelenskyy says Western parts found in Russian drones, missiles AlJazeera, 6 Oct 2025

" 'During the massive combined strike on Ukraine on the night of October 5, Russia used 549 weapon systems containing 102,785 foreign-made components — from companies in the United States, China and Taiwan, the United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and the Netherlands.'

"Mr Zelensky said Ukraine is preparing new sanctions against those who help Russia, with proposals to curb the supply schemes."

Source: British parts discovered in Russian drones used to attack Ukraine Independent UK, 6 October 2025

"Among the components analyzed, three American companies — Texas Instruments, Analog Devices, and Microchip Technology — as well as the Swiss STMicroelectronics — manufactured the most."

Source: 69% of the foreign components retrieved from the drones used by Russia in Ukraine originate from US companies B4Ukraine, n.d.

"Zelenskyy specifies that the strike drones launched contained approximately 100,688 foreign components, the Iskanders contained about 1,500, the Kinzhals contained 192, and the Kalibrs contained 405.

" 'Companies in the United States manufacture converters for Kh-101 missiles and Shahed/Geran-type drones, sensors for those UAVs and for Kinzhal missiles, analog-to-digital converters for drones and missiles, and microelectronics for missiles,' the President says."

Source: Thousands of US, Chinese, and EU components found in Russian drones and missiles — Zelenskyy RBC Ukraine, via MSN, 6 October 2025

Propaganda? Reporting?

When you are ready to provide a URL or more, we can source material to see from which "side" it comes.

16 posted on 10/07/2025 3:26:34 PM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: lurk
--- "On the one hand, Russia looks like it's going to win this thing. On the other hand, Ukraine looks like it's going to win this thing."

Tevye lives for another day! Yeah!

17 posted on 10/07/2025 3:29:53 PM PDT by Worldtraveler once upon a time (Degrow government)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: EnderWiggin1970

You are correct - Pokrosk is a “moth to Light” operation, drawing in whatever Ukraine can find to send.

I follow about two dozen sources. Some are blogs, others are channels, and I search for news on different areas of the front by googling and then reading thru lots of EU news. I don’t read anything form Britian. I follow a couple of youtube channels. Usually I have to google for cities. And yea, I copy stuff into a word document for this and cobbled together a narrative of what has happened from spring thru October for just three areas of the front. This article I wrote comes from about 10 different sources. Almost everything has already happened. My zeeper hater’s seem to never research anything, and have resorted again today with personal attacks. Had it not been for Zeepers and their combination of personal attacks and false information, I would have never gotten interested in finding the truth about this conflict.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pQhw-mnBx-Y

https://liveuamap.com/ a good source everyday - you can then follow primary sources to blogger channels. It is literally a rabbit hunt

Ukraine is constantly under the threat of encirclement. Kupiance will fall in a matter of a wekk or so. From there they will be pushing the uke’s across the Oscal River.

Ukraine is never allowed to retreat.

I used to go directly to the Russian Government website but it is shuf off now, or the links that would give information.

Pokrosk is now 50% under Russian control, and due to their encirclement to the north, the defeat of the Ukrainian counterattacks, and Russia is just happy to bleed Ukraine.

Ukraine is a like a moth to light, and the Russians are moving slowly in Pokrosk, but they are moving faster thru Zaproshiza.


18 posted on 10/07/2025 3:40:55 PM PDT by Jumper
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Jumper

Interesting that you’ve aroused the ire of the fake soldier chickiemaximus, who you would have slapped around like a little girl when you were in the service.

He’s a true REMF - with the big mouth attached.


19 posted on 10/07/2025 3:43:58 PM PDT by kiryandil (No one in AZ that voted for Trump voted for Gallego )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Worldtraveler once upon a time; Jumper

Pretty pathetic attempt by your critics to divert away from clear proof that Ukrainian manpackage-tongue cleaner propagandists are accessing this site.

Little Zelya puffers are accusing you guys of being Russian propagandists.

The Ukraine will collapse soon enough. We’ll get to hear them squeal like pigs and little girls when that happens.

Notice that one of the chief FR spammers for The Ukraine has moved on to vile attacks on India and H1-Bs because the Ukies are in such deep doodoo. Expect more attacks by brainless mouth-breathing simpletons like Apairofpantiesmaximus in the future.


20 posted on 10/07/2025 3:51:01 PM PDT by kiryandil (No one in AZ that voted for Trump voted for Gallego )
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-2021-4041-48 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
General/Chat
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson