Russia forces had noticed the probes and that Ukraine seemed to be planning something, but Russia did not expect Ukraine to amass such significant forces. Due to accumulation of massive forces for this incursion, they were able to literally advance over the bodies of their own fallen as they pushed forward. Ukraine was seeking a media victory as well as battlefield success.
In the first four days, Russia eliminated about a third of Ukraine’s frontline air defense potential, not counting other equipment. Naturally, they failed to reach Kurchatov.
To understand the folly of Ukrainian actions, one must look back to the vaunted Counter Offensive of 2023. During the AFU Counter Offensive they lost up to a thousand soldiers a day. During the Kursk Offensive, Ukraine casualties exceeded those of the Counter Offiensive by stunning numbers up to double or nearly thriple the losses. The Propoganda War was in full swing.
As a result, their advance of about thirty kilometers on a relatively small section of the front cost them approximately sixty thousand personnel. Ukrainian troop losses in equipment were also staggering. In the first days, they lost up to two to three dozen tanks per day.
Ukraine had trained and prepared for months with about 30,000 soldiers for the Kursk Offensive and within a month, they were gone and Ukraine had replaced the Combat Group that began the offensive. Here was the moment grabbing soldiers off the streets became a meme in Ukraine. Ukraine doubled down and replaced initial losses with scarce reserves pulled from everywhere, including freshly mobilized individuals rounded up from the streets.
Once it became apparent that capturing the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, the Ukrainians were counting on Russia to panic and redeploy forces from Pokrovsk to weaken the Russian forces pushing there.
As many had pointed out Ukraine oftentimes times their attacks to coincide with other calendar events, such as US elections, meetings of NATO or the EU, or visits by US officials to Kiev.
After a long winter campaign, by early March 2025 the Ukrainians hold only a few villages near the border and a few ravines where they tried to regroup during their retreat. The diplomacy had never occurred. Russia did not panic nor move soldiers from Pokrovsk. Instead, the Russians were maintianing classic Russian strategy whereby they relentlessly maintain artillery and stand off weapons contact with the retreating forces. The Russians pushed Ukrainian forces out of Kursk into the Sumy region, but did not actually follow up with an actual attack into Ukraine at that moment. The Kursk Offensive ended with Ukrainian losses of 76,000 soldiers, over five thousand pieces of heavy equipment and vehicles, and the bulk of the entirety of Ukraine's Air Defense Forces had been destroyed nation-wide. It also ended with Russian troops at a critical juncture in Sumy near Zhuravka, Novenkoe and Basovka.
The Russian Constant Contact Campaign throughout 2025.
Putin directs Russian forces to create a security zone. From the Kharkov region, where a security zone was already being formed along the line Volchansk–Velykyi Burluk–Kupyansk, adding to the Seversky Donets River and its cascade of reservoirs to the west, creates an ideal security zone. This is probably on the first stage of security zones, and Russia is going to create or negotiate a demilitarized zone extending to the Dnieper River under Russiancontrol, including Odessa and Nikolaev.
Yes Odessa.
The Russian plan is revealing itself to anyone who actually cares to ask, what if, how, and when, if ever at all.
There is already the creation of a security zone along the Volchansk-Kupyansk highway. Russia is carrying out a slow grinding war whereby stand off munitions and weapons are employed to do the bulk of the destruction of the entrenched Ukrainians. Nearly the final stage, there is a well developed cauldron around Kupyansk, where one pincer is near Dvurechnaya, and the other is near Kruglyakovka-Senkovo. (if this were a Viet Nam film, you would be hearing CCR’s Can’t You See). Russian forces have been tiddying up the AFU forces on the (eastern) bank of the Oskol River in the Borovsk direction. This is also part of the Kharkov region. Its significance lies in covering the main supply line to the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration, which runs through Izyum. Russian forces are pursuing the Liman direction broke through in the Ukrainian defense line near Kolodezi. By working to capture Liman it opens the door to Slavyansk from the rear, and cuts off a major supply line to Seversk. Russian forces moved from Belogorovka to the Serebryanka direction. By late August Russian forces captured the Serebryansky/Kremenets Forest, a heavily fortified area near Seversk, marking a significant shift in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This development left the Seversk fortress vulnerable from the north and opens new avenues for Russian offensives towards Slaviansk. In the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR), the last fortress Ukraine held was Chasov Yar. From Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk, the Russians have defeated Ukraine. Now we are witnessing Russian advances in to Toretsk area. The next key area was, of course, Chasov Yar. This was the last fortress of the Ukrainians, covering Konstantinovka and Kramatorsk, which is currently the capital of the occupied part of the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR). Russia took and held the main heights near Chasov Yar allowing the advance advance toward Kramatorsk and the road connecting it to Konstantinovka. The complete liberation of Chasov Yar opens up several directions for us. Cutting off the supply route from Kramatorsk isolates Konstantinovka and, by extension, the Toretsk sector. By mid-summer, almost every settlement near Toretsk was taken.
Pokrovsk was a harder nut to crack, but Russian tactics saw their forces bypass Pokrovsk, cutting off the supply route through Rodinskoe. South of Pokrovsk, is open terrain, where they can move toward the city’s supply line from Pavlograd and into the rear of the AFU grouping on the Zaporozhye direction, all the way to Dnepropetrovsk, through areas without strong fortifications. The vaunted Ukrainian August-September into October Counter Offensive in the local areas north of Pokrovsk collapsed the first week of October. Capturing the Tonenkoe line was followed by Selidovo, and once Ugledar fell, it led to the encirclement of AFU forces near Pokrovsk.
The result of Russian tactics which maintained constant pressure, without actually exploiting any operational breakthrough's by themselves, but rather waiting for the pressure to cause main unified fortified line has been fragmented. Now is the time when Russia will send some diversionary attacks preceeding the opening of actual main attacks. Russia does not actually have to capture every stronghold such as Dnepropetrovsk or as the Uke’s call it Dnipro. It can be blockaded by destroying the bridges. As this occurs Russian forces will move farther into the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions… then Odessa. The literal demands by the west that Russia allow a Cease Fire actually have an ulterior motive, which is to sneak in French, British, Polish, German and other Baltic states soldiers into Ukraine, but the primary reason is to build fortifications. The US is beset by conditions under Trump that were not hindrances for Ukraine under Biden. The US green lighting the overthrow of Syria, the attack on Iran which is apparently not over yet, and the diversion of supplies and equipment to South America for a regime change by military force in Venezuela is underway. Zelinski suffers for these diversions of supplies. The Pivot to China underway since the early 2000s with repositioning from Europe to the Pacific is underway as well. Contrary to popular belief, the US does not have the energy resources itself now in LNG and Oil to support our allies whom are demanded to stop using Russian energy. The energy sector or Oil trade takes time for contracts to change on the world stage. Thus Trump has but one avenue to secure energy for the NATO coalition and that is taking it from Venezuela. Canada has a refinery sitting idle without the oil from Venezuela. Once Trump captures this oil for US Oil companies he can continue his military campaigns. In recent days negotiations between the US and the Maduro government indicated that Trump is demanding the leader leave and the new government hand over all oil to the United States and it’s oil companies. Now Trump must pursue his military option since Maduro rejected his demands of peaceful surrender.
On the US domestic front, we are seeing an increase in the use of military force to secure Trump’s power and control of US DNC cities who are in rebellion. In the case of multiple regional wars, Trump must control the DNC cities if he finds himself at war in Venezula, Iran, Syria… as well as the Baltics or to support Germany in the event of Ukraine war expansion from the EU states who are vocally calling for US intervention into Ukraine with boots on the ground.
The real problem for the NATO alliance is financial. They are in recession. Governments are teetering on the brink of fascism and collapse. While Trump is in no danger in DC, the DNC controlled cities are a dumpster fire waiting to happen with financial purse strings being cut. The EU and US are both/all experiencing the failure of fiat currencies. Trust in western financial institutions has waned over short-sighted misuse of Swift, sanctions, stealing assets, telling countries who they are allowed to trade, and the IMF payment system exploiting or maintianing a third world locked into a poverty cycle – which they are now breaking out from under through a combination of Brics support and expulsion of French, and US forces form Africa and the French in the Asian Pacific.
My opinion is the Russians are wasting lives with their Donetsk efforts.
Ukraine knows the Russians are almost sure to come and is ready to kill them off.
“The real problem for the NATO alliance is financial.”
The Brits alone made 170 million artillery shells in WW1 I understand.
“”””””The complete liberation of Chasov Yar opens up several directions for us. Cutting off the supply route from Kramatorsk isolates Konstantinovka and, by extension, the Toretsk sector.””””””
It does? The complete liberation of Chasov Yar opens up several directions for the side that America and our allies supports?
“The EU and US are both/all experiencing the failure of fiat currencies.”
I was in Publix, a Florida-based grocery store chain, last night.
I felt almost like an Italian in the final years of the lira.
The US military strategy was based on DEI.
The Russian military strategy is based on DIE!
That being said, it is best for Ukraine to get a deal done before the Russians finally get their act together.
An interesting piece.
My own take is that the operation north of Pokrovsk was designed to draw in and destroy the bulk of remaining Ukrainian assault forces. That appears to be in the mopping-up stages now. With little capacity for manuever and counter-attack in the future, the next stage of the war will devolve into embattled Ukrainian garrisons trying to cope with Russian infiltration in between their major positions, as they are cut off from resupply.
I agree that Odessa is a likely target. Although it wasn't part of the original vision of the SMO, taking the rest of the Black Sea coast will link up Russia with Transnistria. More important, it will eliminate the use of Ukrainian seaports as logistics hubs in the event of a future invasion by NATO. That would force them to rely on overland (rail/road) logistics to support an invasion into the Russian heartland.
On the one hand, Russia looks like it’s going to win this thing.
On the other hand, Ukraine looks like it’s going to win this thing.
Interesting that you’ve aroused the ire of the fake soldier chickiemaximus, who you would have slapped around like a little girl when you were in the service.
He’s a true REMF - with the big mouth attached.
O_O >-< O_O >-< O_O !!!
...and after a few minutes of Google searching key words and phrases, look at what I found.
This is copied and pasted from Marat Khairullin's substack, Russia's Plan for 2025. Khairullin is a another one of many Russian z-Nationalist who has time to make near daily pro-Russian content about Ukraine. It is also on Larry Johnson's Sonar21 and a few other places, none of which are friendly to the US getting in Russia's way. The first of many problems is, this was originally posted on March 19, seven months ago. I am no cultured academic policy expert of the Moscow based Russo-centric variety. Even if I was, this seems a little bit dated to portray as a current assessment of the war.
The more serious issues are the OP presented it as his own and edited it to hide its origins.
That is plagiarism, pure and simple.
The edits are only in this thread, not anywhere else this is posted on Sonar21 or justplainpolitics forum.
Now let's examine some rather curious edits. Khairullin wrote this:
"It is already known that in the first four days, we eliminated about a third of their frontline air defense potential, not counting other equipment. But they were seeking media attention."Jumper posted this, showing edits in bold and underline, and deletions in strike through:"Naturally, they failed to reach Kurchatov. Our military contained their offensive."
"It is already known that In the first four days, Russia eliminated about a third of Ukraine’s frontline air defense potential, not counting other equipment.That is just a few examples of the editing of what is posted here, not in the original or anywhere else it was posted.But they were seeking media attention.""Naturally, they failed to reach Kurchatov.
Our military contained their offensive."
Jumper, since it is clearly not your work despite what you claim in the OP for this thread, did you bother to look up what else Khairullin thinks about the United States or President Trump?
All these pro-invasion, anti-EU, anti-NATO Russian nationalists are only pro-U.S. when we stay out of their way and let them take what they want. Once the U.S. opposes them, we are their enemy #1.
Every. Single. Time.