Posted on 05/28/2025 2:28:50 PM PDT by Miami Rebel
In a still-early look at the likely November gubernatorial matchup, Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 43%-26%, according to the Roanoke College Poll. The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College interviewed 658 Virginia residents between May 12 and May 19, 2025. The survey has a weighted margin of error of 5.25%.
More than a quarter (28%) of registered voters are undecided, and 3% said they would vote for someone else. These results are within the margin of error of the February poll. Regarding favorable/unfavorable ratings, about one in five doesn’t know enough about either candidate to have an opinion about them.
Job Approval, Favorable/Unfavorable, and Directions of Virginia and Nation
For the first time in eight years of polling, a majority (51%) thinks things in Virginia have gotten off on the wrong track, while two-thirds (66%) say the same about the country. President Donald Trump’s job disapproval rating (65%) is the worst it has been, including during his first term, while his 31% approval rating is low, but not his worst. Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s job approval rating (46%) is his lowest and down seven points from November.
Youngkin’s unfavorable rating (44% favorable/50% unfavorable) is also his worst showing, while Trump’s is close to his most negative (33% favorable/64% unfavorable). Spanberger’s rating (41% favorable/40% unfavorable) is similar to November, while Earle-Sears’ numbers have fallen in that time (32% favorable/48% unfavorable), with about one-fifth of respondents not offering an opinion. Mark Warner, whose U.S. Senate seat is up for election in 2026, comes in at 51% favorable, about where he stood five years ago. While the Democratic Party is not seen in a positive light (51% unfavorable), the Republican Party fares even worse (63% unfavorable). All these questions show significant partisan differences (see topline).
Political Anxiety and Politics
The overall index of 89.41 is up 13 points since November 2024. While that increase is minimal, it masks significant changes within political parties. Democrats jumped from -10.39 in May 2024 to 101.77 in November 2024, and their current anxiety index stands at 153.35. During the same period, Republicans dropped from 166.59 (May) to 13.52 (November), and are now at -30.10. Political anxiety is closely tied to party control of the White House and Congress.
Most respondents trust the government in Washington to do what is right only sometimes (62%) or never (24%), but a slight majority (52%) thinks that ordinary citizens can influence the federal government. Most Virginians (62%) think their side has been losing more than winning on important issues. A plurality (43%) of those polled is dissatisfied with how the federal government is working, and 31% are angry, which is the highest measure of anger in the eight years we have been asking it. Half (50%) now think the country’s best years are behind us, but 48% think the best years lie ahead.
Democrats have become much more pessimistic about the federal government, while Republicans are more positive. The greatest party differences on the questions that comprise the index can be seen in “winning more than losing,” “dissatisfied/angry with how government is working,” and “best years ahead.” Those results can be found in the crosstabs at the conclusion of the topline.
A large majority (84%) of Virginians see the nation as divided regarding the important issues facing it. More than half (56%) think the federal government makes their life worse, as opposed to the 40% who think the government makes their life better.
Deficit/Debt
The Roanoke College Poll also examined perceptions of the national debt and annual deficit. A large majority of Virginians say they are very concerned (42%) or somewhat concerned (40%) about the deficit and debt. A majority thinks the deficit is a result of spending too much (61%) versus not raising enough money in taxes (34%).
Asked to make choices to address the issues, the largest group favors raising taxes for those making more than $400,000 annually (74%), but 82% oppose raising taxes for everyone. A large majority (71%) likewise oppose across-the-board spending cuts. More than half (56%) oppose cutting programs other than defense, Social Security, and Medicare; 55% oppose cutting defense; and 73% oppose significantly modifying Social Security and Medicare to save money. If forced to choose an option that would impact them or their family, 29% would prefer increased taxes, 28% picked fewer services, and 15% boldly chose both. More than a quarter (27%) picked neither because they think the debt and deficit aren’t that big of a problem.
Analysis
“Six months in a gubernatorial election season is an eternity in politics, but one would prefer to be ahead by 17 points,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College. “More than a quarter of Virginians are undecided, and there is good news for both candidates. Spanberger is obviously leading at this point, and she leads among independents, but a large number of Republicans are undecided, and they will most likely end up voting for Earle-Sears. The favorable rating for Earle-Sears, however, should be cause for concern.”
“Both Trump and Youngkin are taking some hits in terms of job approval and favorable ratings. Most of that comes from Democrats and independents, but some Republicans have soured on both as well. That could be related to internal squabbles in the Republican Party, statewide and nationally, but we do not have data on that.”
“With regard to the deficit and debt, most see them as a problem, but not as many seem to be willing to pay the piper.”
Methodology
Interviewing for the Roanoke College Poll was conducted by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College in Salem, Virginia, between May 12 and May 19, 2025. A total of 658 completed interviews came from random telephone calls and texts to 384 Virginians, and 274 responses were drawn from a proprietary online panel of Virginians. Interviews were conducted in English. Cellphones constituted 39% of the completed phone and text to web interviews.
The phone sampling frame was provided by Marketing Systems Group with the landline sample generated by random digit phone numbers with area and exchange code coverage in proportion to the population density in Virginia; the cellular sampling frame was randomly divided so that half of the potential respondents would receive a text message with an invitation to complete the survey on their own before we would call them, and the other half would be called and interviewed over the phone by a live agent and sent a text message afterwards with an invitation if the respondent was not available when we called. Cint USA, Inc, facilitated the online panel with completion time and attention check questions used for quality control. IPOR regularly uses bootstrap analysis of post-survey results to control for quality within the blended frames.
Questions answered by the sample of 658 respondents are subject to a weighted error margin (including design effect) of plus or minus 5.25% at a confidence level of 95%. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples such as the one used here, the results should be at most 5.25 percentage points above or below the figure obtained by interviewing all Virginians with a home telephone or a cellphone. Where the results of subgroups are reported, the error margin is higher.
Quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the commonwealth were proportionately represented. The data were statistically weighted for gender, race and age. Weighting was done to match Virginia data in the 2023 one-year American Community Survey (ACS). The design effect was 1.994.
The “Republican doctrine” is that we need to win by such a large margin that it is “too big to rig”.
I feel like with cheating and republican party self-sabotage that no matter how bad and unpopular democrat policies are they will always be competitive. That’s why we need to DISMANTLE this corrupt system or Trump’s Presidency will be for nothing. We need mass arrests and maybe Martial Law to prevent the future communist takeover of America.
Haven’t looked at this polls internals but I’m willing to bet big sampling bias going on just looking at the top line numbers
VA has gone the way of CA, CO, and CT. Not much chance of holding the governorship unless the opposition can find opposition info on Spanberger
Sadly, VA insisted on more Tim Kaine and wouldn’t vote for a native Vietnam candidate. Minority Republican nominees are endangered species in the once great commonwealth.
I don’t know much about her.
Is her campaign sit inaccurate?:
“Following President Trump’s joint address, where he outlined ushering in an era of commonsense leadership, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is following his lead to bring that vision to Virginia. Earle-Sears’ new video ‘Parade of Horribles’ calls out the Democrats in Richmond for blocking practical solutions and putting woke ideology ahead of the people. She is standing up against the madness and fighting for the values that matter to hardworking Virginians.
“President Donald Trump is fighting tirelessly to protect Americans from out-of-touch policies. Winsome Earle-Sears stands alongside him, defending Virginia from the potential dangers of becoming the next New York or Maryland but the threat remains very real. During her time in Congress, Abigail Spanberger supported the same radical agenda, and now, Winsome Earle-Sears is the only defense against the tide of leftist ideas threatening Virginians. The compelling new video showcased her fight against the far-left policies being pushed by Democrats this past session.”
they can both stick it.
Spanberger worries me. She needs to be nipped in the bud, because come 2032, she could very well be in a position to be POTUS.
I agree the reason the GOP won the White House is because Trump was the candidate; but, unfortunately, I think Kamala would’ve lost to anyone.
Agree...Winsome Sears truly jumped the shark with her Never Trump stance.
I can’t figure VA out .... have they totally gone off the rails with this favoring of Dems?
Can they not see the damage that was done over the past four Dem/Autopen years?
She’s begging for a life line.
Winsome Sears in 2022 ...
“Voters have spoken, and they have said that they want a different leader. And a true leader understands when they have become a liability,” Sears said. “A true leader understands that it’s time to step off the stage, and the voters have given us that very clear message. Because this is about America.”
“So if the party wants to move on or some in the party such as yourself, Lt. Governor, maybe Gov. Youngkin feels the same way, but Donald Trump still makes a speech next week that he wants to run for president, what would you think about that?” Cavuto asked.
“I could not support him. I just couldn’t, because we have seen, for example, in those states where he has endorsed the candidates in fact, Republicans on the same ticket who he did not endorse, over performed whereas his candidates totally underperformed by as much as 10 points. We have a clear mission, and it is time to move on.”
https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4107998/posts
I have absolutely nothing in common with people like her. She’d be the last person I’d look to for leadership. The Republican Party has only themselves to blame. Trump has shown them a winning formula, and they ignore it.
The left keeps pushing and they will look back ans wish for a President Trump
An American Pinochete will rise if necessary. The unhumans are going to have to be delt with. Joe knew, nobody wanted to listen.
Democrats are on a road to lose the Electoral College even if they win every Rust Belt State.
According to the Democrats: Throughout Trump’s First 100 Days, Winsome Earle-Sears Cheered on Trump’s Devastating Agenda Instead of Fighting for Virginians
She's now full-on pro-Trump: Sears Stands with Trump, Calls Out Liberal Extremism in Virginia
Of course, some people will hold a grudge, but they have only a binary choice: not voting for Sears is in effect voting for the insane Democrat.
Yes, and a few weeks ago a Democrat beat a Republican for mayor of Omaha; most special elections go Democrat.
This is the kind of good sense that Freepers sometimes can’t see.
We need a White candidate.
Interesting point. She’s not deserving of it, but your’s is a real possibility.
In a word, no.
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