Haven’t looked at this polls internals but I’m willing to bet big sampling bias going on just looking at the top line numbers
I took a look at them here, but they aren't extensive or deep.
The few things I can gleen (the few policy questions) seem to indicate a tilt of the Independent vote to Democrat, suggesting they might have labeled some Democrats as Independents.
Examples:
Poll Demographics:
Implied demographics with independent leans applied:
Ideology:
The demographic is effectively a D+10 but Conservative+1 in Virginia? I don't believe it.
Looking at the regional breakdowns compared to election results, I used Perplexity Pro AI to give me percentages based on the poll regions:
| Region | Poll % | Pop % | Youngkin % | McCauliffe % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Virginia/Richmond | 18% | 15% | 45-50% | 50-55% |
| Northern Virginia | 31% | 37–40% | 30-40% | 60-70% |
| Shenandoah Valley | 7% | 6-7% | 65-75% | 25-35% |
| Southside | 8% | 4-5% | 60-70% | 30-40% |
| Southwest Virginia | 12% | 3% | 70-80% | 20-30% |
| Tidewater | 25% | 19-20% | 45-55% | 45-55% |
Notice the following biases:
Northern Virginia: McCauliffe's largest win, but the poll undersampled the state's largest region to make room for other oversampling.
Southside: A region Youngkin won that was undersampled by nearly 50%.
Southwest Virginia: Oversampled 400%, was McAulliffe's smallest turnout.
On the few issues crosstabs:
| Issue | Dem | Ind | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very concerned about debt/deficit | 37% | 37% | 74% |
| Favor increase tax above $400,000 | 88% | 72% | 59% |
| Cut spending all programs | 5% | 25% | 55% |
| Cut all but defense, SSI, Medicare | 25% | 39% | 67% |
| Cut defense | 50% | 42% | 36% |
| Modify SSI, Medicare | 12% | 18% | 49% |
| Choice of personal impact: | |||
| Increase taxes | 43% | 28% | 10% |
| Fewer services | 10% | 27% | 53% |
| Both | 13% | 27% | 19% |
| Neither/not big problem | 33% | 30% | 16% |
Independents match Democrats in their LACK of concern about the debt? But the sample is +1 Conservative?
Again, the Independents overwhelmingly favor "taxing the rich?"
Everywhere else, the Independents lean closer to the Democrats than the Republicans, but the poll is somehow Conservative+1?
I think this poll skewed the regional breakdowns to favor McCauliffe voters.
-PJ
This poll suffers a major bias of omission in order to create a favorable headline for Spanberger.
The issues important to Virginians and were the focus of major policy actions by the Youngkin/Earle-Sears administration that were omitted from the poll that would favor Earle-Sears are:
I would dismiss this poll as psyops for the Spanberger campaign that needs a rebuttal from Earle-Sears and Youngkin.
-PJ