Posted on 05/28/2025 2:28:50 PM PDT by Miami Rebel
In a still-early look at the likely November gubernatorial matchup, Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 43%-26%, according to the Roanoke College Poll. The Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College interviewed 658 Virginia residents between May 12 and May 19, 2025. The survey has a weighted margin of error of 5.25%.
More than a quarter (28%) of registered voters are undecided, and 3% said they would vote for someone else. These results are within the margin of error of the February poll. Regarding favorable/unfavorable ratings, about one in five doesn’t know enough about either candidate to have an opinion about them.
Job Approval, Favorable/Unfavorable, and Directions of Virginia and Nation
For the first time in eight years of polling, a majority (51%) thinks things in Virginia have gotten off on the wrong track, while two-thirds (66%) say the same about the country. President Donald Trump’s job disapproval rating (65%) is the worst it has been, including during his first term, while his 31% approval rating is low, but not his worst. Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s job approval rating (46%) is his lowest and down seven points from November.
Youngkin’s unfavorable rating (44% favorable/50% unfavorable) is also his worst showing, while Trump’s is close to his most negative (33% favorable/64% unfavorable). Spanberger’s rating (41% favorable/40% unfavorable) is similar to November, while Earle-Sears’ numbers have fallen in that time (32% favorable/48% unfavorable), with about one-fifth of respondents not offering an opinion. Mark Warner, whose U.S. Senate seat is up for election in 2026, comes in at 51% favorable, about where he stood five years ago. While the Democratic Party is not seen in a positive light (51% unfavorable), the Republican Party fares even worse (63% unfavorable). All these questions show significant partisan differences (see topline).
Political Anxiety and Politics
The overall index of 89.41 is up 13 points since November 2024. While that increase is minimal, it masks significant changes within political parties. Democrats jumped from -10.39 in May 2024 to 101.77 in November 2024, and their current anxiety index stands at 153.35. During the same period, Republicans dropped from 166.59 (May) to 13.52 (November), and are now at -30.10. Political anxiety is closely tied to party control of the White House and Congress.
Most respondents trust the government in Washington to do what is right only sometimes (62%) or never (24%), but a slight majority (52%) thinks that ordinary citizens can influence the federal government. Most Virginians (62%) think their side has been losing more than winning on important issues. A plurality (43%) of those polled is dissatisfied with how the federal government is working, and 31% are angry, which is the highest measure of anger in the eight years we have been asking it. Half (50%) now think the country’s best years are behind us, but 48% think the best years lie ahead.
Democrats have become much more pessimistic about the federal government, while Republicans are more positive. The greatest party differences on the questions that comprise the index can be seen in “winning more than losing,” “dissatisfied/angry with how government is working,” and “best years ahead.” Those results can be found in the crosstabs at the conclusion of the topline.
A large majority (84%) of Virginians see the nation as divided regarding the important issues facing it. More than half (56%) think the federal government makes their life worse, as opposed to the 40% who think the government makes their life better.
Deficit/Debt
The Roanoke College Poll also examined perceptions of the national debt and annual deficit. A large majority of Virginians say they are very concerned (42%) or somewhat concerned (40%) about the deficit and debt. A majority thinks the deficit is a result of spending too much (61%) versus not raising enough money in taxes (34%).
Asked to make choices to address the issues, the largest group favors raising taxes for those making more than $400,000 annually (74%), but 82% oppose raising taxes for everyone. A large majority (71%) likewise oppose across-the-board spending cuts. More than half (56%) oppose cutting programs other than defense, Social Security, and Medicare; 55% oppose cutting defense; and 73% oppose significantly modifying Social Security and Medicare to save money. If forced to choose an option that would impact them or their family, 29% would prefer increased taxes, 28% picked fewer services, and 15% boldly chose both. More than a quarter (27%) picked neither because they think the debt and deficit aren’t that big of a problem.
Analysis
“Six months in a gubernatorial election season is an eternity in politics, but one would prefer to be ahead by 17 points,” said Dr. Harry Wilson, interim director for IPOR and professor emeritus of political science at Roanoke College. “More than a quarter of Virginians are undecided, and there is good news for both candidates. Spanberger is obviously leading at this point, and she leads among independents, but a large number of Republicans are undecided, and they will most likely end up voting for Earle-Sears. The favorable rating for Earle-Sears, however, should be cause for concern.”
“Both Trump and Youngkin are taking some hits in terms of job approval and favorable ratings. Most of that comes from Democrats and independents, but some Republicans have soured on both as well. That could be related to internal squabbles in the Republican Party, statewide and nationally, but we do not have data on that.”
“With regard to the deficit and debt, most see them as a problem, but not as many seem to be willing to pay the piper.”
Methodology
Interviewing for the Roanoke College Poll was conducted by the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research (IPOR) at Roanoke College in Salem, Virginia, between May 12 and May 19, 2025. A total of 658 completed interviews came from random telephone calls and texts to 384 Virginians, and 274 responses were drawn from a proprietary online panel of Virginians. Interviews were conducted in English. Cellphones constituted 39% of the completed phone and text to web interviews.
The phone sampling frame was provided by Marketing Systems Group with the landline sample generated by random digit phone numbers with area and exchange code coverage in proportion to the population density in Virginia; the cellular sampling frame was randomly divided so that half of the potential respondents would receive a text message with an invitation to complete the survey on their own before we would call them, and the other half would be called and interviewed over the phone by a live agent and sent a text message afterwards with an invitation if the respondent was not available when we called. Cint USA, Inc, facilitated the online panel with completion time and attention check questions used for quality control. IPOR regularly uses bootstrap analysis of post-survey results to control for quality within the blended frames.
Questions answered by the sample of 658 respondents are subject to a weighted error margin (including design effect) of plus or minus 5.25% at a confidence level of 95%. This means that in 95 out of 100 samples such as the one used here, the results should be at most 5.25 percentage points above or below the figure obtained by interviewing all Virginians with a home telephone or a cellphone. Where the results of subgroups are reported, the error margin is higher.
Quotas were used to ensure that different regions of the commonwealth were proportionately represented. The data were statistically weighted for gender, race and age. Weighting was done to match Virginia data in the 2023 one-year American Community Survey (ACS). The design effect was 1.994.
Kamala got 75,000,000 votes 2024, supposedly, Trump 77,000,000. I’ve never seen another republican ever come close to these popular vote totals.
*Spanberger worries me.*
She won in a district Trump won. Blame republicans.
**We need a White candidate.**
Sad but true.
Spanburger is smart and articulate, unlike Kamala.
I wonder how many people here really know much about Winsome Sears.
She’s a strong Conservative with a very good background; and she would be a positive influence for changing the damage that Democrat policies have done to the Black population:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YpxXFsJZVhs
Why sad?
If Trump has any faults to speak of it’s that he’s too nice and he’s a rule follower.
That’s just it, she looks like the kind of candidate that could peel off a lot of Republican votes.
Doesn't mean squat if she can't get elected.
Republicans always want to run blacks at the top of the ticket in statewide races and they almost always lose spectacularly.
Lt. Gov is about the best they can do. A statewide senate or gov race almost never wins.
At this point it's Spanberger's race to lose. She'd have to do something profoundly stupid to blow such a polling lead.
Are you in Virginia?
I think the point is that if it comes down, as T Ruth has suggested, to a binary choice, the people who can actually vote there have to choose between being Trump ‘purists’, and having a chance at winning.
Who would you put up against Spanberger?
Conservatives vote in presidential elections and maybe some midterm elections. The rest they don’t bother. Been that way since 2017. If trumps not on the ballot, we lose most of the elections.
The capital should rotate between states and regions. That boat anchor should be passed around to all the states treading water in this mess. It should be a tent city. If you want the federal employment perks working at the capital you live in the tent city, moving every year or so. It should pay well, but it shouldn’t be cushy and parasitically dominant on any state it happens to border for more than two years. In my opinion.
Freegards
I took a look at them here, but they aren't extensive or deep.
The few things I can gleen (the few policy questions) seem to indicate a tilt of the Independent vote to Democrat, suggesting they might have labeled some Democrats as Independents.
Examples:
Poll Demographics:
Implied demographics with independent leans applied:
Ideology:
The demographic is effectively a D+10 but Conservative+1 in Virginia? I don't believe it.
Looking at the regional breakdowns compared to election results, I used Perplexity Pro AI to give me percentages based on the poll regions:
| Region | Poll % | Pop % | Youngkin % | McCauliffe % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Virginia/Richmond | 18% | 15% | 45-50% | 50-55% |
| Northern Virginia | 31% | 37–40% | 30-40% | 60-70% |
| Shenandoah Valley | 7% | 6-7% | 65-75% | 25-35% |
| Southside | 8% | 4-5% | 60-70% | 30-40% |
| Southwest Virginia | 12% | 3% | 70-80% | 20-30% |
| Tidewater | 25% | 19-20% | 45-55% | 45-55% |
Notice the following biases:
Northern Virginia: McCauliffe's largest win, but the poll undersampled the state's largest region to make room for other oversampling.
Southside: A region Youngkin won that was undersampled by nearly 50%.
Southwest Virginia: Oversampled 400%, was McAulliffe's smallest turnout.
On the few issues crosstabs:
| Issue | Dem | Ind | Rep |
|---|---|---|---|
| Very concerned about debt/deficit | 37% | 37% | 74% |
| Favor increase tax above $400,000 | 88% | 72% | 59% |
| Cut spending all programs | 5% | 25% | 55% |
| Cut all but defense, SSI, Medicare | 25% | 39% | 67% |
| Cut defense | 50% | 42% | 36% |
| Modify SSI, Medicare | 12% | 18% | 49% |
| Choice of personal impact: | |||
| Increase taxes | 43% | 28% | 10% |
| Fewer services | 10% | 27% | 53% |
| Both | 13% | 27% | 19% |
| Neither/not big problem | 33% | 30% | 16% |
Independents match Democrats in their LACK of concern about the debt? But the sample is +1 Conservative?
Again, the Independents overwhelmingly favor "taxing the rich?"
Everywhere else, the Independents lean closer to the Democrats than the Republicans, but the poll is somehow Conservative+1?
I think this poll skewed the regional breakdowns to favor McCauliffe voters.
-PJ
This poll suffers a major bias of omission in order to create a favorable headline for Spanberger.
The issues important to Virginians and were the focus of major policy actions by the Youngkin/Earle-Sears administration that were omitted from the poll that would favor Earle-Sears are:
I would dismiss this poll as psyops for the Spanberger campaign that needs a rebuttal from Earle-Sears and Youngkin.
-PJ
It’s clear that’s it’s skewed 43-26 isn’t remotely in the realm of reality.
Likely oversampled NOVA, or skewed on socioeconomic breakdowns.
This is the kind of numbers you get when you have a scandal ridden or highly unpopular incumbent .. and this doesn’t fit the dynamic of this race at all.
28% undecided seems insanely unlikely as well given the current political climate and atmosphere.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.