Posted on 01/28/2025 6:10:32 AM PST by MtnClimber
Last month, during the thick of the holidays, I found myself in a rare though not totally unprecedented predicament: I wasn’t sure which way to bet on the stock market in the year ahead.
In my December column, I told you there were three possible 2025 outcomes – all of them seemingly likely, and to a vexingly similar degree. I also told you that I’d come back to you when I could conclude which is, in fact, the most likely.
Well, I’m back – and with an answer that has surprised me in more ways than one.
Recall the three possible outcomes I had outlined: A minor decline, a small single-digit positive year, or another big year like 2023’s and 2024’s gains. I also said the latter was the least expected and would shock the most people because three big years in a row is legendarily rare.
Now, I dare say – brace for the legendarily rare. That’s because I believe that what is most likely is a stock market gain of 15% to 25% – maybe slightly bigger.
There is, however, also one major twist here that came even less expected for me – and which hence may be even more universally shocking. The twist is that European stocks should lead, quietly but strongly, as my forecast above is for the MSCI World index. The S&P 500 should lag Europe.
What has changed since year-end? As I said then, I would keep researching for signs of sentiment that would swing direction and that the swing would happen soon.
I also told you that US investors were optimistic while foreign ones were pessimistic. As it turns out, the overseas pessimism is extreme – vastly more depressed overall than Americans are optimistic. Hence, even a moderate year...SNIP
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
“The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”
John Kenneth Galbraith
Risk is required, and I’m very low risk and diversified. 2009 was a great buying opportunity.
Oh, and I don’t own any his stuff. He’s just another predicter and he has a good track record. This has been another good month even with the selloff. I’d take this gain every That’s great you had to go back that far to find a big loss, and we all took that one and it came out fine buy just sticking with the long-term plan.
Stock market is up!
Reason?
Inflation. More worthless paper chasing other paper.
... my point was, I doubt ANY senior in the big audience was happy looking at their statement and he answered that he expected it to be a sharp V. I wouldn’t pay him to take that kind of downside risk especially in retirement. ANY 8% loss is historically more than market noise and time to have a sell strategy to preserve capital! ....ymmv
I put my money w/Fisher Investments five years ago and could hardly be happier.
“what a genius”
Ken Fisher is a billionaire.
Ah yes, that’s a risk-level setting problem. Everyone is different on that one.
If people could actually predict this stuff with accuracy, there would be no market. Everything would be priced at its proper value all the time and prices wouldn’t move enough to matter.
“According to the latest TipRanks data, approximately 92.23% of ASML Holding (ASML) stock is held by retail investors. Who owns the most shares of ASML Holding (ASML)? Ken Fisher owns the most shares of ASML Holding (ASML).”
ASML Holding NV
683.35 USD (yesterday’s close)
Closed: Jan 29, 8:56 AM EST
Pre-market 721.10 +37.75 (5.52%)
So are the Kardashians...
No kidding, nobody can reliably predict the market ups and downs, foolish.
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