Posted on 01/28/2025 6:10:32 AM PST by MtnClimber
Last month, during the thick of the holidays, I found myself in a rare though not totally unprecedented predicament: I wasn’t sure which way to bet on the stock market in the year ahead.
In my December column, I told you there were three possible 2025 outcomes – all of them seemingly likely, and to a vexingly similar degree. I also told you that I’d come back to you when I could conclude which is, in fact, the most likely.
Well, I’m back – and with an answer that has surprised me in more ways than one.
Recall the three possible outcomes I had outlined: A minor decline, a small single-digit positive year, or another big year like 2023’s and 2024’s gains. I also said the latter was the least expected and would shock the most people because three big years in a row is legendarily rare.
Now, I dare say – brace for the legendarily rare. That’s because I believe that what is most likely is a stock market gain of 15% to 25% – maybe slightly bigger.
There is, however, also one major twist here that came even less expected for me – and which hence may be even more universally shocking. The twist is that European stocks should lead, quietly but strongly, as my forecast above is for the MSCI World index. The S&P 500 should lag Europe.
What has changed since year-end? As I said then, I would keep researching for signs of sentiment that would swing direction and that the swing would happen soon.
I also told you that US investors were optimistic while foreign ones were pessimistic. As it turns out, the overseas pessimism is extreme – vastly more depressed overall than Americans are optimistic. Hence, even a moderate year...SNIP
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
The EU green mandates have killed their economy. Is there no where to go, but up? I think the EU could sink Europe even lower.
When these billionaires and talking heads say the market will go up (or down), hold on to your wallet.
They have already committed to their position and they want you to follow along, pushing their assets higher.
They buy low, you buy higher.
They sell high, you sell lower.
Lather, rinse, repeat. And you’re left holding the bag every cycle.
“They have already committed to their position and they want you to follow along”
************
Talking their book.
European populist parties are on the rise.
Europeans are tired of the energy madness, and of the insane rush to destroy their societies with Islamic immigrants.
There is a long way to go up.
Exactly why, investors need to base their trades on fundamentals. Believe your eyes, not the salesman.
Strong sectors, strong management, strong balance sheets, will fuel success.
Pundits, prognosticators, “journalists” & “experts”, will fuel poverty.
Invest wisely. GLTA!
Question: Should I pay off my mortgage while paying a 22% tax on my IRA withdrawal? That would mean betting on the IRA outpacing the 3.62% interest on the mortgage.
“Question: Should I pay off my mortgage while paying a 22% tax on my IRA withdrawal? That would mean betting on the IRA outpacing the 3.62% interest on the mortgage.”
No. Do not pay off the mortgage. A conservative, balanced portfolio (50% equity, 50% fixed) should easily beat a 3.62% return over the long haul.
Their industry is in bad shape so there is a long way to go up if the EU will let them implement changes, mainly to the energy sector. The EU courts are developing a bad habit of invalidating elections if a "far right" candidate wins. I would like to see AfD win in Germany. That would signal that there is hope. I hope Europe can turn things around, but they will have to get rid of millions of criminal immigrants. I hope they have the backbone for that fight.
Up, down or flat - what a genius. Kinda like a securities transaction, 2 out of the 3 entities are GUARANTEED to make money - guess which two. The investor, the stock broker, the securities firm.
I would not pay off your mortgage of 3.62%. If inflation exceeds 3.62%, that is free money. Plus, if the SALT deductions return in some form, that will be a bonus even if inflation does drop.
Ken Fisher is top shelf.
Political risk is hard to predict, and political risk is the dominant long term threat.
Economist predictions should be equally weighed against astrological predictions. Then both ignored.
This guy never heard of naked shorts?
The market will be down substantially in 2025.
I am just now breaking even to December of 2021 and I'm supposed to believe that the market is up for two years? Nope, just recovering .
I wonder if Ken wrote this before or after tech's took a panic dump yesterday?
Finances, financial reporting at least, live only in the moment. Either bouncing off the ceiling or crawling beneath the floors and never taking a long view or reporting it. The report mostly for traders and not for investors.
Never underestimate the ability of statists to ruin their states even further. Europe is still better off than Cuba, so like you said, there is plenty of room for their economies to keep tanking.
Ken did not see much increase in tech/growth stocks. He seemed to think value stocks would outperform other categories.
Swinging for the fence only works out well some of the time but most people remember it longer when it does work out. I don’t favor it. Base hits and 3.7 yards per down.
...if you like risk, clients lost 49% in 2009 and most of the investors are retirees!
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