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The Sun's Most Powerful Flare in Seven Years Just Erupted
Science Alert ^ | May 16, 2024 | MICHELLE STARR

Posted on 05/16/2024 7:54:47 AM PDT by absalom01

A solar flare measured at X8.7 on the strength scale just emerged from AR 3664, the sunspot region responsible for last weekend's solar storms that sparked vivid auroras.

That's the most powerful solar flare of the current cycle, absolutely the most powerful since 2017, and comfortably within the top 20 solar flares ever measured.

As AR 3664 made its way toward the edge of the Sun's disk, it wasn't just the X8.7 flare on May 14 that erupted from the solar limb. On May 15, an X3.4 flare followed suit, suggesting that the giant sunspot region is going to continue its party on the far side of the Sun, out of view from Earth.

X-class flares are the most powerful eruptions our Sun can manage.

...

Because of the position of both flares, further solar storms from AR 3664 are unlikely. But a sunspot region that is just beyond the limb on the opposite side of the Sun, about to emerge from the far side, spat out an X2.9 flare, also on May 15 – which means we could be in for more interesting times here on Earth in the days ahead.

 


(Excerpt) Read more at sciencealert.com ...


TOPICS: Astronomy; Business/Economy; Computers/Internet; Science
KEYWORDS: ar3664; astronomy; carrington; carringtonevent; catastrophism; cme; coronalmassejection; griddown; michellestarr; science; sida; solarflare
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A "Grid Down" is a classic planning scenario, and there are frequent analogies to the "Carrington Event" in 1859, where currents were induced in telegraph wires strong enough to start fires and shock the telegraphers.

But is that analogy really valid when looking at the modern North American power grid? Long-haul transmission lines are designed to operate at up to 500Kv, and transmit many megawatts of power. Would a CME really give those systems significant problems? Much is made of the regional step up and step down transformers handling all of that load, but surely those also have overcurrent and overheat protection.

Seems that journalists and others are very concerned about this, but the people who design long-range high power transmission systems are notably absent from that conversation.

Still concerned about a "Grid Down", but seems that the real threat would be industrial sabotage/attack of physical infrastructure.

Seriously wondering about this.

1 posted on 05/16/2024 7:54:47 AM PDT by absalom01
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To: absalom01

Stoopid climate change! What can’t it do?


2 posted on 05/16/2024 7:59:37 AM PDT by rktman (Destroy America from within? Check! WTH? Enlisted USN 1967 to end up with this💩? 🚫💉! 🇮🇱👍!)
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To: absalom01

X8.7!

This is the biggest evidence yet for Manmade Climate Crisis! The only solution is more Socialism.


3 posted on 05/16/2024 8:00:02 AM PDT by UnwashedPeasant (The pandemic we suffer from is not COVID. It is Marxist Democrat Leftism.)
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To: absalom01
I heard that Greta Thunberg is out in her backyard yelling at the sun.

No word yet on Al Gore’s response.

4 posted on 05/16/2024 8:08:18 AM PDT by Leaning Right (The steal is real.)
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To: absalom01
From the article: "...The solar cycle is not well understood..."

Profound statement: the solar min's and max's affect Earth's climate more than all the CO2 we can ever produce, which is just 0.043% of the atmosphere.

5 posted on 05/16/2024 8:08:32 AM PDT by budj (Combat vet, second of three generations.)
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To: absalom01

Luckily, I had the prescient ability to get a ham license prior to the wildfires of 2018 when Paradise burned. That being said—if communications go down I can communicate around the state the country and the world. 20watts and a wire will do it. Granted, for the days of actual solar storms I may not get out anywhere with the bands, but that will clear up and I will be able to communicate.


6 posted on 05/16/2024 8:10:40 AM PDT by abigkahuna
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To: absalom01

I’d like to know how long we have been tracking and measuring solar flares. There was the Carrington event, but how strong was that, and others before and after that hit countries that didn’t have telegraph wires strung for many miles. I don’t think we have had the technology for that long, which makes me wonder just how strong a CME can be. A few decades doesn’t give much data at all.


7 posted on 05/16/2024 8:13:22 AM PDT by Omnivore-Dan
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To: rktman

“Stoopid climate change! What can’t it do?”

Wmyn and minorities hardest hit.


8 posted on 05/16/2024 8:24:36 AM PDT by MeganC (Ruzzians aren't people. )
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To: Omnivore-Dan

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_Event

They mention some extrapolations of tree rings and ice core that indicate event an order of magnitude larger than Carrington in the past.


9 posted on 05/16/2024 8:30:42 AM PDT by Theophilus (covfefe)
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To: absalom01

I thought the one last week was the strongest in 150 years.


10 posted on 05/16/2024 8:31:11 AM PDT by Steely Tom ([Voter Fraud] == [Civil War])
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To: absalom01

.


11 posted on 05/16/2024 8:32:21 AM PDT by sauropod ("This is a time when people reveal themselves for who they are." James O'Keefe Ne supra crepidam)
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To: Steely Tom

I believe it was.

According to this, the one yesterday was bigger, though it’s not aimed at Earth.

In the past, the only people who ever seemed to pay attention to anything that could cause a “grid down” scenario were preppers, survivalists, some gun movement people falling into one or the other of the first two categories. IOW, people more or less on the right or right/populist side of things. Very much my tribe. But now it’s the other side hyping this, and they sound loopy, imho.

We never really hear about how much energy would be deposited into the elements of the grid that are so breathlessly discussed in the media. I have no idea, but how much additional current could be induced into a long-range transmision line? Would that even bother a system that operates at 500Kv? And even if things could get to damaging overcurrent levels, would it happen so fast that manual and automatic overcurrent protections in the transformers couldn’t kick in? An EMP, maybe I get it, but a CME?

Any high voltage system designers on the board who could shed any light?


12 posted on 05/16/2024 8:54:53 AM PDT by absalom01 (You should do your duty in all things. You cannot do more, and you should never wish to do less.)
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To: 75thOVI; Abathar; agrace; aimhigh; Alice in Wonderland; AnalogReigns; AndrewC; aragorn; ...



13 posted on 05/16/2024 9:07:10 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (Putin should skip ahead to where he kills himself in the bunker.)
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To: SunkenCiv

14 posted on 05/16/2024 9:10:53 AM PDT by Red Badger (Homeless veterans camp in the streets while illegals are put up in 5 Star hotels....................)
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To: absalom01

The most powerful flare on record was in 2003, during the last solar maximum. It was so powerful that it overloaded the sensors measuring it. They cut-out at X17, and the flare was later estimated to be about X45.

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a010000/a010100/a010109/10109_Flares_HTML_Transcript.html


15 posted on 05/16/2024 9:11:35 AM PDT by PIF (They came for me and mine ... now its your turn)
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To: Omnivore-Dan
I’d like to know how long we have been tracking and measuring solar flares.

Not really that long. Prior to the 20th century, we really had very little idea about solar flares, or even sunspots because the evidence of them was indirect at best. Chinese records of sunspots going back quite a way. Hundreds of years of records of sunspots IIRC.

We really have no idea how often really big flares happen. The best evidence would be very indirect, such as noting how far south aurora are visible.

For those interested in the phenomena, the best source on the net IMO is solarham.com, as they don't tend to start running around with their hair on fire about it.

16 posted on 05/16/2024 9:14:54 AM PDT by zeugma (Stop deluding yourself that America is still a free country.)
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To: absalom01

Perhaps Kalifornia might see a “ Grid Up” event that stops that day’s “Brownouts”, just sayin…….

WWG1WGA!


17 posted on 05/16/2024 9:44:11 AM PDT by Billyv ( Ephesians 6:11 for we battle not against flesh and blood...Pray for our leaders and nation )
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To: absalom01

“ According to this, the one yesterday was bigger, though it’s not aimed at Earth.”

Thanks.

Does this mean this one won’t cause the Northern lights to be seen as the recent one did?


18 posted on 05/16/2024 10:25:34 AM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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To: ifinnegan

This is my understanding.


19 posted on 05/16/2024 11:52:32 AM PDT by absalom01 (You should do your duty in all things. You cannot do more, and you should never wish to do less.)
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To: absalom01

Thanks.

I’d like to be able to see it, so that’s too bad.


20 posted on 05/16/2024 12:40:12 PM PDT by ifinnegan (Democrats kill babies and harvest their organs to sell)
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