Posted on 01/08/2024 5:09:10 AM PST by MtnClimber
It’s been almost two years (February 20, 2022) since I added a post to this series. The reason is that global surface temperatures, as measured by NOAA and NASA, had decreased somewhat from 2020 highs, bringing about a hiatus in the otherwise endless drumbeat of propaganda from those agencies claiming “hottest month ever” or “hottest year ever.”
But then a strong El Niño early last year induced a small temperature increase several months later, picked up by the NOAA/NASA thermometer network. Result: From NOAA, October 16, 2023 (“Globally, September 2023 was the warmest September in the 174-year NOAA record. The year-to-date (January–September) global surface temperature ranked as the warmest such period on record.”); NOAA, November 15 (“The planet added another record-breaking month to 2023, with October ranking as the warmest October in the 174-year global climate record.”); Axios, December 14 (“With November ranking as the warmest such month on record, NOAA is projecting greater than 99.5% odds that this year will be the world's warmest since instrument records began in the 19th century.”). Expect the official announcement that 2023 was the “hottest year ever” to come out some time around the middle of this month.
But do the data really establish that the most recent months and year are the hottest? Readers of the prior 30 posts in this series know that the data on which these claims are based have been subject to extensive adjustments by computer algorithms, in every case to lower the temperatures in the earlier years and raise the temperatures in the later years — thus introducing an artificial warming trend that does not exist in the original records. Those 30 prior posts have looked at both unadjusted and adjusted records from dozens of temperature stations around the world, documenting in particular the downward adjustments of the earlier temperatures, and especially those between about 1900 and 1950. As a few examples, this post from July 2013 documented temperature adjustments from the station in New York’s Central Park; this one from July 2014 discussed data adjustment from Kansas and Texas; this one from July 2015 discussed data adjustments from Maine, Ohio and Tennessee; this one from February 2017 discussed a station in Connecticut; this one from August 2017 discussed multiple examples from Australia; this one from January 2018 had multiple examples from upstate New York; and so on and so forth.
The work on which these posts has been based — tracking down unadjusted and adjusted data from particular stations and compiling them into useful graphic presentations — is laborious and time-consuming. It has been done for dozens of stations by a handful of independent researchers, notably, Tony Heller, Joseph D’Aleo, Paul Homewood and Willie Soon. But there are upwards of a thousand stations in the networks that NOAA and NASA use for their world surface temperature announcements. So far as I am aware, nobody has yet undertaken the enormous effort of showing the adjustments at all of those stations.
That may be about to change. Yesterday, at his website Real Climate Science, Heller had a very brief post with the headline “What Did They Do Wrong?” The entire text of the post reads as follows:
I have developed new software to analyze the global temperature record. The party is over for blade of the hockey stick fraud.
In addition to that text, the post also includes a brief ( 2 1/2 minutes) video by Heller, in which he announces his new project. He says that he has now developed software that enables him to quickly analyze the unadjusted and adjusted data for particular temperature stations anywhere in the world, and will be publicizing the results of his analysis over future months.
As a teaser, Heller puts up graphs of the unadjusted and adjusted temperature records for a station at Liberia, Costa Rica, in Central America. As should surprise no one, the adjusted data show substantial downward adjustments to cool earlier data and thus make the current data appear to be the warmest, when in the unadjusted data earlier years are warmer. From Heller’s video, here are the unadjusted data for the Liberia, Costa Rica station:
And here are the adjusted data:
If you compare the two, you will note first that the most recent temperatures are identical in the two graphs. A recent peak in June 2023 is the highest point in the “adjusted” graph, at something just under 86 deg F; and the “unadjusted” data point for the same month is at the exact same level. But if you go back even a few years to the 2015-2019 interval, suddenly the “adjusted” temperatures are all well below the 86.17 deg line, while several of the “unadjusted” temperatures are well above. And the farther back you go the crazier it gets. Between 2005 and 2013 there are 13 months above 86.17 deg in the “unadjusted” record, but none even close to that level in the “adjusted” record. Then, in the period of February 1997 to December 2005, in the “unadjusted” record there are 12 months above the 88.89 deg level, two of which are above 91.61 deg — and all of these data have magically disappeared entirely in the “adjusted” record. Somehow in the “adjusted” record, the temperature of about 86 deg from earlier this year stands as the hottest since the record began, while in the “unadjusted” record there are about two dozen months that have higher temperatures, some by as much as about 6 degrees.
In his video, Heller says that he plans to ask the NOAA temperature adjusters what exactly the Costa Rica weather people did wrong to get all of their readings for this station from 1997 to 2005 deleted. Good luck getting any response to that. Hey, those readings don’t support the official narrative!
Heller says that he plans to use his new software for many forthcoming posts disclosing the fraudulent data adjustments that result in the regular “warmest month ever” proclamations. If so, I will be happy to amplify his work at this blog to the extent I can.
It seems the most common stories I hear on the local news channel are about LGBTQ+++ and Hottest (day, month, year) stories.
Manhattan Contrarian ping
“The Greatest Scientific Fraud of All Time”
The climate hoax is certainly one of the very biggest frauds in history but personally I would rank evolution as #1.
You would of course be totally wrong
says bert , a true believer in the "Nothing exploded and became everything " cult.
In other words, they are simply lying. As computer programmers say, garbage in, garbage out.
The generally accepted minimal resolvable temperature variation of the Earth is 0.15 degrees Centigrade.
So it follows that the accumulated aggregate temperature increase would be 30X0.15C = 4.5 degrees C.
A 4.5 degree C increase converts to an 8 degree F increase so if the press accounts were accurate we would be seeing an average accumulated temperature rise of 8 degrees F which is simply preposterous.
The global warming fraud is eventually going to come undone because the dire predictions are simply not playing out over an extended period of time.
The triple witching hour of the climate fanatics is 2030 because they have predicted an existential destruction of the world via climate catastrophe due to global warming
On a 4.5 BILLION year old planet that has seen climate variations we can’t even imagine we’re debating one digit temperature fluctuations over a 10 year period. Unbelievable.
There is much misinformation about the normal temperature on Earth. Here is some science that refutes the lies:
Earth historical temperature has both long-term and relatively shorter-term variations. Long term variations last many millions of years and are called ice ages and warm ages. The shorter-term variations are called glacial cycles and interglacial warm cycles and are overlaid on top of the long-term ice and warm ages. Many will be surprised that we are in an ice age, but also in an interglacial warm cycle.
The first graph shows the long-term average global temperature view of warm periods and ice age periods:
Note that Ice ages vary in length, but 50 million years is pretty typical. Warm ages last much longer than ice ages.
The second graph shows temperature variations for the last 450,000 years in our current Ice Age which started about 10 million years ago, depending on exactly where you want to specify the start temperature from graph 1. (The temperature scale on graph 2 is the average temperature at the Antarctica glacier bore site, not the same as the average global temperature from graph 1):
The temperature for the current interglacial warm cycle from ice core data in Greenland is shown in graph 3. Note that the temperature always fluctuates and that the current temperature is not out of the normal range of fluctuations. Also note that on the lower left there is an error. Where it says “End of the last Ice Age” it should say “End of the last Glacial Cycle” because we are still in the last Ice Age, just in an interglacial warm cycle.
I frequently update this writeup to try to make it clearer. If you have a comment or suggestion, please send me a FR-Mail.
BTTT
The triple witching hour of the climate fanatics is 2030 because they have predicted an existential destruction of the world via climate catastrophe due to global warming
I don’t know why you think that.
They have repeatedly moved the goal post in the past.
Why would they not just move the day of destruction again?
I am sure that the Global Warmist will soon announce that we are doomed in 2040.
They are not going to give up on this scam. It just works too well and the people that believe it are never going to believe that is all a lie. It has become a part of their belief system.
The Covid/Covid vaccine hoax is just as large IMHO.
And has killed millions........
“On a 4.5 BILLION year old planet that has seen climate variations we can’t even imagine we’re debating one digit temperature fluctuations over a 10 year period. Unbelievable.”
Morons are in charge. We are allowing the Morons to be in charge.
Temperatures are adjusted every year, in such way that decrease old temperatures and rises recent ones, to show some warming.
The explanation, I found, is that the data are taken mostly by volunteers who are going more sloppy every year!
That is, really, the explanation for the adjustments!
Unbelievable!
Most still claim last year was the hottest year in decades.
It looks like the cycle of SUVs is about 100,000 years. Every 100,000 years SUVs cause mother earth to warm, then taxes are increased and the EVs take over and mother earth cools again.
EC
“The Case for Skepticism on Global Warming”
On January 25, 2005, at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., towering writer, and himself a scientist, Michael Crichton delivered a detailed explanation of why he criticized the consensus view on global warming.
Using published UN data, he argued that claims for catastrophic warming arouse doubt; that reducing CO2 is vastly more difficult than is commonly presumed.
Crichton, a doctor (who does not practice medicine) spoke on why societies are morally unjustified in spending vast sums on a speculative issue when people around the world are dying of starvation and disease.
When tens of trillions of dollars are involved, you will find corruption, and lots of it.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.