Posted on 10/08/2022 1:05:38 PM PDT by nuconvert
Iranian Regime national tv Channel One hacked about an hour ago. During a broadcast of Khamenie speech, a red crosshair appeared over his face and chanting of Women. Life. Freedom. There was writing to the side saying "Rise up. Join us". Also 4 photos at the bottom of the screen of young people killed and additional writing: "The blood of our youth is dropping from your paws".
Also, there was a huge banner in the middle of Tehran highway today that read: We are no longer afraid of you. We will fight.
Also, attempted attack on IRI ambassador in Denmark. Her bodyguard was stabbed. Diplomatic Security intervened before the attacker could stab the ambassador.
The US Air Force deployed six air-to-air refueling aircraft to California and Hawaii. The aircraft support combat operations by enhancing the ability of aircraft to project force.
Israel has continued to strike Iranian air defense and missile forces. These strikes have helped Israel achieve air superiority over parts of Iran and preempt Iranian missile attacks.
Israel has continued to strike the Iranian internal security apparatus, which could degrade the ability of the regime to repress its people.
Iran has continued to fire drones at Israel, but these attacks are relatively ineffective due to the amount of time Israel has to react to Iranian drone attacks. The drones employed by Iran to target Israel take roughly nine hours to reach Israel, which enables Israel to scramble aircraft or direct aircraft on combat air patrol to intercept incoming projectiles. The IDF has intercepted four drones targeting Israel since CTP-ISW’s 5:00 PM ET data cutoff on June 19.[22] The IDF intercepted an Iranian drone over Haifa in northern Israel.[23] The IDF also intercepted three Iranian drones over the Dead Sea.[24] These drone interceptions occurred in three separate waves that were reported at 5:20 PM ET, 8:05 PM ET, and 8:38 PM ET.[25] None of the three waves appears calibrated to enter Israeli airspace at the same time as the ballistic missile attack mentioned above, which was reported at 10:48 PM ET.[26] This means that the drones presumably failed to strain Israeli air defense bandwidth like they would if the drones entered Israeli airspace at the same time as the ballistic missiles.
Iran Update Special Report, June 20, 2025, Evening Edition
Information Cutoff: 5:00 PM ET
Iran is attempting to impose a dilemma on the United States and the international community: accept Iranian terms in nuclear negotiations or risk a long and challenging hunt for hidden Iranian nuclear material. This dilemma is likely designed to harden Iran's nuclear program against destruction either by securing an agreement on Iranian terms (which would presumably allow Iran to continue enrichment) or protecting Iranian nuclear material by hiding the material, thus making a US or Israeli effort to destroy the material more difficult.
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Mohsen Rezaei stated during an interview on June 20 that Iran has relocated its enriched material to a secure location to prevent it from being destroyed.[1] This statement is presumably intended to suggest to a Western audience that destroying all of Iran's nuclear material would require a long, challenging, and possibly futile hunt for hidden material and that, therefore, the West should negotiate with Iran. Iranian officials have expressed their interest in negotiating a nuclear deal with the United States, but have not moderated their negotiating position from before the conflict.[2]
Iran remains committed to preserving its stated “right” to enrich uranium.[3] These Iranian demands over enrichment have been a non-starter for the United States and Israel in the ongoing negotiations, suggesting Rezaei’s statement is designed to increase the pressure on the United States and Israel to relax their positions. The United States and Israel have rejected Iranian demands and maintained that Iran will not be permitted to enrich uranium on Iranian soil.[4] Israel launched its air campaign on June 12 to “degrade, destroy, and remove [the] threat” of Iranian weaponization of its nuclear program, and a senior Israeli official said that enrichment remains a red line.[5] US President Donald Trump has threatened to support an air campaign targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure if Iran fails to meet US demands for zero enrichment.[6]
International Atomic Energy Agency Director Rafael Grossi warned of a dangerous degradation of nuclear security at Iranian nuclear sites due to Israeli strikes.[26] Grossi addressed the United Nations Security Council on June 20 to present the IAEA’s findings on nuclear security concerns amid the Israeli air campaign. He noted that further damage to Iranian nuclear facilities could result in radiological leaks that could endanger surrounding populations. Grossi noted that Israeli airstrikes targeting the Natanz enrichment site on June 13 destroyed electricity infrastructure and seriously damaged underground nuclear cascade facility. He noted that there was no observed radioactivity outside the facility following the strikes, but suggested that there could be contamination within the facility. Grossi stated that Israeli airstrikes on June 13 also damaged the central chemical laboratory, a uranium conversion plant, the Tehran reactor-fuel manufacturing plant, and the enriched uranium metal processing facility at the Esfahan nuclear site. Grossi confirmed that the Khondab Heavy Water Research Reactor in Arak, Markazi Province, was not operational at the time of Israel's June 19 airstrike. Grossi issued a strong warning that any damage to the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant could result in a “very high” release of radioactivity into the environment. Grossi stated that a strike that destabilized power to the facility could cause the reactor's core to melt and release radioactivity into the environment. He explained that damage to the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant would require relocating the nearby population several hundred kilometers away from the facility and providing iodine tablets to prevent radiation poisoning.
What’s Going on With Middle East Tankers | Oil Freight & War Risk Rates Jump | Iran Empties Out Oil
June 19, 2025 In this episode, Sal Mercogliano — a maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner — discusses what’s going on with Middle East tankers as Iran and Israel exchange blows.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aLCFUSk9Os
14 min
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
Israel continued its strike campaign targeting Iranian air defenses, missile forces, and nuclear sites. These sites include one in Esfahan that produced centrifuges.
Israel struck and killed senior officers in the IRGC Aerospace Force and Quds Force, which may impose a temporary disruption upon Iranian command-and-control.
An Iranian drone struck a populated area in Israel for the first time during this war. This is not indicative of a systematic breakdown in Israeli air defenses. Integrated air defense systems are not perfect, and some projectiles will impact their targets.
Iran conducted another ballistic missile attack targeting Israel. It consisted of five missiles, all of which the IDF intercepted.
Iran Update Special Report, June 21, 2025, Evening Edition
Information Cutoff: 5:00 PM ET
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has begun implementing emergency succession measures in response to escalating Israeli strikes and the potential for US military involvement.[1] Unspecified Iranian sources told the New York Times on June 21 that Khamenei has relocated to a secure bunker, suspended digital communications, and now communicates with senior commanders only through a trusted aide.[2] Sources added that Khamenei named three senior clerics as candidates to replace him if he is killed.[3] Khamanei also reportedly named replacements for top military commanders and ordered senior officials to work from underground offices and avoid using cellphones.[4] These steps mark the first reported instance of Khamenei directly selecting potential successors outside the formal process of the Assembly of Experts. Khamenei likely took these steps amid heightened assassination fears, as some Israeli officials, including Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, have openly threatened Khamenei’s life.[5] Two unspecified US officials told Reuters on June 15 that the US President Donald Trump vetoed an Israeli plan to kill Khamenei, however.[6] Trump separately stated on June 17 that the United States knows “exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding” but would not “take him out, at least not for now.”[7]
Khamenei’s previous actions indicate that the three possible replacements are almost certainly equally as ideological as he is. Khamenei previously met with the Assembly of Experts members in November 2024 and emphasized that the next Supreme Leader must “embody the revolution” and implement Islam in Iranian society.[8] Khamenei did not name a successor at the meeting, however. Esfahan interim Friday Prayer Leader and Assembly of Experts member Abdolhasan Mahdavi confirmed a week after Khamenei’s meeting in November 2024 that the assembly had confidentially identified and prioritized three candidates for succession and framed it as “a routine responsibility.”[9] The Assembly of Experts is an 88-member elected clerical body tasked with appointing, supervising, and—at least in theory—removing the Supreme Leader, though in practice it has never challenged the position and plays a limited role in day-to-day politics.[10] The only previous leadership transition in Iran occurred in 1989 under different political conditions. The current assembly was elected in March 2024 and will serve until 2032.[11]
It remains unclear who Khamenei selected as his potential successor. Unspecified sources added that Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei’s son and frequently rumored successor, is not among the designated candidates, however.[12] Former President Ebrahim Raisi, another widely speculated figure, died in a helicopter crash in May 2024 and is no longer in consideration.[13] Khamenei’s decision reflects his concerns about external threats and potential instability after his death, as the regime expects opposition groups and anti-regime actors to exploit any leadership vacuum.[14] Opposition groups and anti-regime actors are more likely to try to exploit such a vacuum during a war.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director Rafael Grossi reported that renewed Israeli strikes targeting the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) on June 21 caused additional damage to the facility.[59] The IDF previously struck the ENTC on June 13, which damaged the central chemical laboratory, a uranium conversion facility, a reactor fuel manufacturing plant, and an enriched uranium metal processing facility. Grossi stated that the renewed Israeli strikes on June 21 damaged six other buildings at the ENTC. Grossi stated that the Israeli airstrikes damaged a natural and depleted uranium metal production facility that was not operational at the time of Israel's June 21 airstrike. Grossi noted that the Israeli airstrikes on June 21 also damaged a fuel rod production facility, a building with low-enriched uranium pellet production, a laboratory and nuclear material storage, another laboratory building, a workshop handling contaminated equipment, and an office building with no nuclear material. Grossi noted that the targeted facilities either contained no nuclear material or small quantities of natural or low-enrichment uranium. Grossi assessed that there is no risk of off-site contamination.
Iran Update Special Report, June 22, 2025, Morning Edition
The United States conducted strikes targeting three nuclear facilities with bunker-buster bombs and Tomahawk cruise missiles. The US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said all three sites sustained “extreme damage.” Israeli officials echoed that statement, though they added the Fordow nuclear facility was “not destroyed.”
Iran began taking steps to retaliate against the United States, including by threatening shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran likely interfered with GPS signals in the Strait of Hormuz on June 22.
Israel continued its air campaign against Iran.
Iran Update Special Report, June 22, 2025, Evening Edition
Information Cutoff: 5:00 PM ET
Iranian leaders uncharacteristically gave no explicit vow of retaliation against the United States. The closest was an IRGC statement warning of “regrettable responses.” This absence of coordinated threats may reflect the extent to which Iranian leaders are struggling to communicate with one another, as they isolate themselves to evade Israeli strikes.
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi will travel to Moscow and meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 23. The Kremlin condemned the US strikes and issued veiled threats that are likely meant to stoke panic among Western audiences, including key decision makers.
Israel continued its strike campaign against Iran, targeting missile, drone, and air defense capabilities. One of the strikes targeted equipment that Iran uses to produce solid fuel for ballistic missiles, which will likely disrupt further the Iranian ability to reconstitute its degraded missile forces.
Iran International’s live blog for the latest updates on the Israeli operation against Iran.
https://www.iranintl.com/en/liveblog/202506232386
“They’re trying”
Pray that they’re successful.
(Why can’t someone here hack the crawl at the bottom of the screens of MSNBC, CNN etc.?)
The Israeli Air Force (IAF) conducted airstrikes on June 23 targeting roads leading to the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) in order to “disrupt” access to the site. Israeli strikes on access roads to Fordow may prevent Iran from being able to assess damage at Fordow or move materials from the site to another location.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has continued to target Iranian internal security and social control institutions in Tehran. The IDF targeted the Basij headquarters in Tehran. The IDF also struck Evin Prison, which is Iran's primary facility for holding regime dissidents. An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported that the IDF struck the prison's entrances to facilitate the escape of regime dissidents.
Iran Update Special Report, June 23, 2025, Evening Edition
Information Cutoff: 5:00 PM ET
US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, beginning the evening of June 23. A senior Iranian official confirmed to Reuters that the ceasefire would occur following Qatari mediation.
Iran conducted a missile attack targeting the US al Udeid Airbase in Qatar in retaliation for the US strikes on the Iranian nuclear program. The attack was largely symbolic and inflicted no casualties or damage, however.
Iranian elite, including some moderate leaders, have reportedly tried to pressure Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to accept a ceasefire or sideline him entirely. It is unclear what role these individuals played in the US-announced ceasefire.
Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Policy Majid Takht Ravanchi announced that Iran will remain a member of the NPT. Iranian officials have previously threatened to withdraw from the NPT in response to US and Israeli strikes.
IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi confirmed that the United States likely inflicted “very significant damage” in its strikes on the Fordow nuclear site. Iran may have moved some of its nuclear material to undisclosed locations beforehand, however.
Iran's retaliatory attack resembles Iran's last direct attack on US forces in 2020, but Iran appears to have assumed less risk that the United States would respond forcefully to this attack than it did in its 2020 attack. Iran launched between 15 and 22 ballistic missiles at Ain al Asad Airbase and another US site in Iraq in January 2020 in retaliation for the United States killing former IRGC Quds Force Commander Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad.[15] The attack injured at least 64 US servicemembers at Ain al Asad Airbase, even though the United States received similar advanced warning that allowed personnel to enter bunkers.[16] The Qatari Foreign Ministry confirmed on June 23 that al Udeid Airbase in Qatar “had been evacuated [before the attack],” which suggests that there was limited risk to US servicemembers during the attack.[17] Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 17 showed that unsheltered US aircraft at al Udeid Airbase relocated to an unspecified location, further suggesting that there was limited risk to US assets as well as personnel.[18] Iran's decision to strike an evacuated US base suggests that Iran designed the attack to try to prevent further escalation. Iranian leaders accept a certain level of risk when conducting any attack on US interests, as such an attack could harm or kill US servicemembers, however. Trump warned prior to the Iranian attack on al Udeid Airbase that the United States would respond to Iran if it harmed US personnel.
There appear to be internal fissures within the Iranian regime over how to respond to the conflict with the United States and Israel. Opposition media reported on June 21 that former moderate Iranian President Hassan Rouhani reportedly met with senior clerics in Qom in recent days to persuade them to pressure Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to concede to key US and Israeli demands, including the suspension of uranium enrichment.[29] The clerics included Mousa Shobeyri, Hossein Vahid Khorasani, and Nasser Makarem Shirazi. Rouhani framed the meetings as an effort to “save” the Islamic Republic. It is unclear how the clerics responded to Rouhani’s requests. IRGC-affiliated media claimed on June 19 that a “few suspicious and disreputable” individuals within the regime were trying to convince clerics in Qom to push for a compromise with Israel.[30] Rouhani, as well as Supreme Leader adviser Ali Larijani and Expediency Discernment Council head Sadegh Amoli Larijani, have reportedly unsuccessfully tried to contact Khamenei in recent days to advocate for renewed negotiations with the United States.[31] Ali Larijani’s reported support for negotiations is notable given that he made threats to US forces in the region in a post on X on June 23.[32]
Unspecified Iranian leaders have reportedly developed a contingency plan to govern Iran without Khamenei in the event that Khamenei is killed or informally sidelined.[33] The individuals developing this plan have agreed that a leadership committee would functionally replace Khamenei and negotiate a ceasefire with the United States and Israel. The individuals have considered Rouhani for a “key role” in the leadership committee. Some military officials involved in the plan have engaged Gulf countries to try to gain support for such political change in Iran. It is very notable that senior Iranian military, political, and religious leaders are discussing a potential post-Khamenei leadership structure in Iran. Reuters reported on June 23 that there have been increased efforts to appoint a successor for Khamenei, citing five insiders with knowledge of the discussions.[34] These efforts suggest that senior officials are highly concerned about the stability of the regime and seek to ensure regime survival in the event that Khamenei is killed or removed.
The Washington Post revealed that Israel conducted an intelligence operation to intimidate and divide senior Iranian military officials as part of its campaign against Iran.[49] Persian-speaking Israeli intelligence operatives called more than 20 senior Iranian leaders on their cellphones after Israel killed key Iranian military leaders on June 13.[50] The Israeli intelligence operatives threatened to kill Iranian leaders and their families unless they ceased their support for the Iranian regime and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.[51] In an audio recording obtained by the Washington Post, an Israeli intelligence operative called an unspecified senior IRGC official and told the official that he and his family would be killed unless he sent a video disavowing the Iranian regime to the Israeli intelligence operative within 12 hours.[52] Three unspecified Israeli sources told the Washington Post that the official is still believed to be alive and that the primary objective of the operation was to deter and confuse the Iranian leadership.[53]
Iran may have moved some materials from its nuclear facilities to other locations ahead of US or Israeli strikes. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi sent Grossi a letter on June 13 in which he stated that Iran would “adopt special measures to protect our nuclear equipment and materials.”[63] Israeli officials told the New York Times on June 22 that Iran may have moved materials and equipment from Fordow ahead of the US strikes.[64] CTP-ISW reported in its June 23 Morning Update that Israel conducted airstrikes on June 23 targeting roads leading to Fordow in order to “disrupt” access to the site, which may prevent Iran from being able to assess damage at Fordow or move materials from the site to other locations.[65]
Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 23, reportedly to request Russian assistance for Iran. An Iranian delegation led by Araghchi met with Putin, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov, and Chief of the General Staff's Main Directorate Igor Kostykov.[68] Iranian Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali and Deputy Foreign Minister for International and Legal Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi also attended the meeting.[69] An unspecified senior source told Reuters that Araghchi was expected to deliver a letter from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to Putin that sought “more help” from Russia.[70] Unspecified Iranian sources said that Iran has been unsatisfied with Russian support for Iran against the United States and Israel.[71] Putin stated that Russia is “making efforts” to assist Iran, according to a Kremlin readout.[72] Putin also said that “unprovoked” attacks against Iran have “no justification.”[73] Iran's reported dissatisfaction with Russian support likely reflects Russian constraints in its ability to provide direct support to Iran due to its war in Ukraine, and also showcases the immediate limitations of the Russo-Iranian strategic relationship.[74] Iran and Russia's recent Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement notably lacks a mutual defense clause.[75] Russia has likely resigned itself to providing diplomatic overtures and declarations of support for Iran, which underscores the limited benefits that Russia can provide its partners as it focuses on fighting Ukraine.[76]
⭕️ The Israeli army will operate in these areas, as it has done in recent days throughout Iran to attack the Iranian regime's military infrastructure.
⭕️ Dear citizens, for your safety and health, we ask that you immediately leave the areas designated on the map and do not approach them in the coming hours.
⭕️ Your presence in these areas puts your life at risk.
Mark, for prayers of strength, for the Iranian people to rise up to reclaim their lives.
Tatt
11h ago: The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia condemns and denounces in the strongest terms the aggression launched by Iran against the sisterly State of Qatar, which constitutes a flagrant violation of international law and the principles of good neighborliness. It is unacceptable and cannot be justified under any circumstances.
https://x.com/KSAMOFA/status/1937206980537393160
Iranian state media said a ceasefire between Iran and Israel came into effect at 7:30 a.m. local time on Tuesday. Iran launched a final round of missile strikes at targets inside Israel just minutes before the ceasefire began, the reports said.
https://x.com/IranIntl_En/status/1937374759270166654
This Is How Iran Is Ruled
The lines of authority in the Islamic republic all stem from the supreme leader. (click on the relevant icons for more information).
https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-leadership-explained-ayatollah-khamenei/33452450.html
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje’i: The Security Candidate
Currently serving as head of Iran's judiciary, Mohseni-Eje’i, 68, is a former intelligence minister and a longtime fixture within the Islamic Republic's hardline establishment. He is known for his unwavering loyalty to the regime and his central role in repressing dissent. Backed by the security elite and closely aligned with Iran's Revolutionary Guard (IRGC), his elevation would represent continuity for Iran's conservative trajectory and further entrench the militarization of governance.
Mohsen Araki: The Traditionalist Voice
A senior clerical figure with influence in Iran's theocratic hierarchy and a former advisor to Khamenei on religious affairs, Araki, 69, has been a prominent advocate for Islamic unity and the preservation of revolutionary ideals. His candidacy emphasizes religious legitimacy and theological orthodoxy. If chosen, Araki would likely reinforce the regime's foundational principles and appeal to more traditionalist factions within the clergy.
Hassan Khomeini: The Heir to a Revolutionary Legacy
As the grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, Iran's first supreme leader and the founder of the Islamic Republic, Hassan Khomeini, 52, carries a name steeped in revolutionary symbolism and historical weight. His family legacy gives him unmatched name recognition and emotional resonance across the Iranian political spectrum. Though his reformist views and political independence have made him a controversial figure among hardliners, many see him as a potential unifier—someone who could invoke the ideals of the republic's founding era while steering the country in a more moderate direction.
Mojtaba Khamenei: The Excluded Heir
Long regarded as a behind-the-scenes power broker, Mojtaba Khamenei, 55—son of Khamenei—was once seen as a likely successor due to his influence over the IRGC and control of key financial networks. However, insiders say he has been excluded from consideration. The decision signals Khamenei’s desire to avoid the appearance of hereditary rule, a principle he has publicly opposed.
https://www.newsweek.com/iran-next-supreme-leader-contenders-2089332
The ceasefire between Iran and Israel appears to be holding despite both Israeli and Iranian claims of violations. Israel has responded to perceived Iranian violations of the ceasefire but has not resumed its campaign at this time.
Iran has conducted at least seven ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel since CTP-ISW’s last data cutoff at 5:00 PM ET on June 23. Iran launched five of the attacks before the ceasefire went into effect at 12:00 AM ET, one attack at 12:06 AM ET, and one attack around 3:25 AM ET. Israel conducted several waves of airstrikes in Tehran on June 23 and 24 before and after the ceasefire went into effect.
An unspecified senior US military official told the Associated Press on June 24 that the United States intercepted drones that targeted Ain al Asad Airbase and another unspecified base near Baghdad Airport overnight on June 23 and 24.
Iran Update Special Report, June 24, 2025, Evening Edition
Information Cutoff: 5:00PM ET
The Institute for Science and International Security assessed that US and Israeli strikes on Iran have “effectively destroyed” Iran's enrichment program.[16] The Institute said it will take a “long time” for Iran to restore its enrichment capabilities to pre-strike levels. This assessment is based on the destruction Iran suffered at Natanz nuclear facility, Fordow nuclear facility, Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center and the elimination of many nuclear scientists.[17] The six entry point craters for the US bunker-buster bombs at Fordow were above two weak points, and the bombs would have detonated within the facility.[18] The Institute for Science and International Security assesses that the bomb blast would have been channeled by the centrifuge cascade hall's side walls, which would have destroyed all of the installed centrifuges there.[19] International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) battle damage assessments indicate that Israeli strikes also likely damaged or destroyed several thousand centrifuges at Natanz.[20] Israel and the United States conducted airstrikes targeting the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant above ground and Fuel Enrichment Plant underground at Natanz, respectively.[21] The IAEA added that it was possible that uranium isotopes may have been dispersed within the facility (though not outside), which would make it difficult to access.[22] This means it may be some time before even the Iranians can determine the true extent of the damage.
The Institute for Science and International Security stated that Iran still retains stockpiles of 3 to 5 percent, 20 percent, and 60 percent enriched uranium, however.[23] Weapons-grade uranium (WGU) is uranium enriched up to 90 percent. The destruction of so many centrifuges will make enriching from 60 percent to 90 percent much slower. A US weapons expert stated that US and Israeli strikes have also made it significantly more difficult and time-consuming for Iran to turn WGU into a usable nuclear weapon.[24] He said the strikes have “significantly” increased the time required for Iran to “even build a non-missile deliverable weapon,“ such as a nuclear bomb. There are significant challenges associated with miniaturizing a nuclear weapon to install it on a ballistic missile warhead.
Israel has killed at least 14 Iranian nuclear scientists since June 12 as part of its campaign to delay Iran's ability to weaponize its nuclear capabilities.[31] The IDF killed Sayyed Asghar Hashemi Tabar in Tehran Province on June 20.[32] Hashemi Tabar was a weapons expert at the Shahid Chamran Group, which is a subsidiary of the Iranian Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND), and specialized in pulse power research.[33] Pulsed power is a technology that stores and releases energy in intense bursts to simulate nuclear detonation effects for research, but pulsed power does not trigger actual nuclear explosions.[34] The United States sanctioned the Shahid Chamran Group and Hashemi Tabar in 2019 for research related to Weapon of Mass Destruction (WMD) proliferation.[35] The IDF also killed Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Sadati Ermaki in Tehran Province.[36]
The IDF has targeted Iran's internal security institutions, including the Iranian Law Enforcement Command (LEC), Basij, and IRGC provincial units since June 15.[39] Israeli strikes on regime security institutions continued on June 23 before the ceasefire. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on June 20 that he ordered “intensified” strikes on regime symbols and domestic repression centers in Tehran Province.[40] The IDF struck the IRGC Imam Hassan Mojtaba Corps headquarters in Alborz Province on June 23 and killed at least 23 IRGC members, including Provincial Deputy Commander Brigadier General Mojtaba Karami and Deputy for Social Affairs Brigadier General Akbar Enayati.[41]
The IDF also killed three senior security and intelligence commanders on June 23, including Deputy for social affairs of the Basij Organization Brigadier General Meysam Rezvanpour, LEC Intelligence Organization Deputy Brigadier General Alireza Lotfi and Basij Counterintelligence Commander Mohammad Taghi Yousefvand, likely to degrade the regime's security and intelligence infrastructure.[42] The Iranian regime has maintained social control by violently cracking down on protests and other expressions of popular anti-regime sentiment through internal security organizations like the Basij, LEC, and the IRGC.[43] Basij units have been deployed to support LEC forces during major protest movements like the Mahsa Amini protests and the Iranian Green Movement.[44]
The IDF assessed that Iran launched between 500 and 550 ballistic missiles and more than 1,000 drones targeting Israel during its “Operation True Promise III.”[53] The IDF’s assessment is consistent with CTP-ISW’s observation of 543 Iranian ballistic missiles. CTP-ISW has recorded 43 waves of Iranian ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel since the start of “Operation True Promise III” on June 13. Iran's ballistic missile barrages during “Operation True Promise III” varied in size. Iran used around 40 missiles in its largest barrage and one missile in its smallest barrage.[54] Iran's missile barrages in the recent conflict are much smaller compared to its barrages in its October 2024 attack on Israel when Iran launched around 100 ballistic missiles per barrage in two barrages.[55] An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported on June 24 that Israeli air defense systems successfully intercepted 80 to 90 percent of Iran's ballistic missiles.[56] Israel also reportedly had a 99.99 percent interception rate of Iranian drones, with only one drone making impact.[57]
Preliminary intelligence assessments suggest the US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities caused serious damage to the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP). The New York Times published a June 25 report on a leaked, low-confidence US intelligence assessment of the recent US strikes on the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.[1] The New York Times and other Western media outlets cite very little direct information from the report. Unspecified sources, in their characterization of the assessment, said that the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessed that the US and Israeli strikes.[2] Unspecified officials added that the findings indicated that US bunker-buster bombs sealed entrances to two unspecified nuclear sites but failed to “collapse their underground buildings.”[3]
The destruction of the centrifuges and equipment inside does not necessarily require the collapse of the facility itself. The Institute of Science and International Security, a nuclear nonproliferation think tank that has long studied the Iranian nuclear program, assessed that it was very likely the strikes destroyed or damaged most of the centrifuges at Fordow on the basis of the impact locations and the effects of the blast waves.[4] It is notable in the context of the leaked US assessments that the Institute did not assess the damage on the basis of whether facilities “collapsed.” This is consistent with claims by other unspecified officials to the New York Times, who said that the Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan nuclear facilities had all suffered “moderate to severe damage.”[5] CTP-ISW has no basis for forming an independent assessment of the damage from US and Israeli strikes at these three nuclear facilities.[6] Early Israeli assessments placed more confidence in the damage to enrichment facilities. The Israel Atomic Energy Commission separately assessed that the US strike on Fordow destroyed the site's critical infrastructure and “rendered the enrichment facility inoperable.”[7] US President Donald Trump told reporters on June 25 that Israeli agents concluded that Fordow suffered ”total obliteration” after visiting the site, suggesting that Israeli assessments have been formed with intelligence collected by Israeli agents in Iran. [8]
A conclusive battle damage assessment of nuclear facilities will take time, given the buried nature of Iran's nuclear sites and limited on-site access. A US nuclear weapons expert stated on June 24 that US and Israeli strikes likely destroyed 20,000 centrifuges at Natanz and Fordow and severely damaged weaponization infrastructure.[9] The expert stated that the early, low-confidence assessment ”focused too narrowly” on breakout timelines.[10] Breakout refers to the time required to enrich 90 percent enriched uranium (also known as weapons-grade uranium). Weaponization requires one to build nuclear weapons. Axios reported on June 25 that intercepted communications suggested Iranian military officials have delivered false situation reports to senior Iranian leaders to downplay the extent of the damage, citing an unspecified Israeli source.[11] This fact is notable because the leaked US intelligence assessment reportedly relied in part upon signals intelligence.[12]
Senior Iranian leadership suggested that Iran may not be willing to cooperate with various international organizations and treaties in the future, despite Iran's historic and current non-adherence to such agreements. Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi and other senior Iranian officials have suggested in recent days that Iran may reconsider its stance on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).[13] Araghchi stated that the agreement “failed” to protect Iran's nuclear program despite years of Iran's compliance with the NPT.[14] A May 2025 International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) NPT Safeguards Agreement report found Iran's cooperation with the IAEA ”less than satisfactory” and raised concerns about undeclared Iranian nuclear sites and material.[15] Iran has threatened to withdraw from the NPT repeatedly over the past several years, but has not done so yet.[16]
Iranian parliament passed a bill on June 25 to suspend all cooperation with the IAEA.[17] Iran's parliamentary national security committee claimed on June 24 that the May 2025 IAEA report that accused Iran of failing to cooperate was inaccurate and served as a pretext for the Israeli air campaign. [18]The committee's June 24 statement recommended that Iran suspend cooperation with the IAEA.[19] Iran has already restricted IAEA oversight, including by withdrawing the certifications of several inspectors in September 2023 and barring other top inspectors in November 2024.[20] Iranian parliamentary speaker Mohammed Bagher Ghalibaf stated that Iran could resume cooperation with the IAEA following a report from Iran's Atomic Energy Authority and the national security and foreign affairs committee.[21] The June 25 bill must be approved by Iran's Guardian Council, whose members are appointed by the Iranian Supreme Leader, to be entered into law.
The head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammed Eslami, stated on June 24 that Iran is assessing the damage to its nuclear program and planning to resume operations.[22] Israel destroyed Iranian nuclear facilities and enrichment capacity with US support and killed key nuclear scientists who were critical to the development and weaponization of Iran's program. The Institute for Science and Security assessed that US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran have ”effectively destroyed” Iran's enrichment program and that it will take a ”long time” for Iran to restore its enrichment capabilities to pre-strike levels.[23] IRGC Major General Mohsen Rezaei stated during an interview on June 19 that Iran relocated its enriched material to a secure location to prevent it from being destroyed.[24] The Institute stated that Iran still retains stockpiles of 3 to 5 percent, 20 percent, and 60 percent enriched uranium.[25] The destruction of Iran's enrichment capabilities will make enriching uranium from 60 percent to 90 percent much slower, however.
Trump stated on June 25 that the United States would not allow Iran to rebuild its uranium facilities and that he would be willing to strike Iran again to prevent it from doing so.[26] The United States and Iran have maintained their negotiating positions from before the conflict on Iranian uranium enrichment. Iranian Vice President Mohammed Reza Aref reiterated on June 25 that Iran will not negotiate on Iran‘s right to enrich uranium on Iranian territory.[27] The United States has maintained its demand for Iran to maintain zero uranium enrichment capabilities.[28] The United States and Iran are expected to meet the week of June 29 to discuss a potential nuclear deal.[29] US President Donald Trump suggested that a nuclear deal with Iran may not be necessary due to damage inflicted on the nuclear program.[30]
The Iranian regime has taken steps to securitize the country, which likely reflects the regime's paranoia about Israeli infiltration and signals a shift to prioritization of counterintelligence. Iranian media reported that Iranian security forces have arrested at least 700 Iranians on political or security charges since the start of the Israel-Iran War on June 12.[31] The arrests include several individuals whom the regime characterized as “Mossad spies.”[32] Such arrests likely reflect Iranian recognition of the scale of Israeli infiltration and covert operations in Iran, which was revealed during Israel's opening attacks on Israel. Three Iranian senior officials told Reuters that Iran is concerned about internal unrest, especially in Kurdish areas, and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Basij units have been put on alert.[33] One source said Iranian forces have deployed to Iran's borders with Pakistan, Iraq, and Azerbaijan to prevent the infiltration of “terrorists.”[34] Large Iranian Kurdish separatist factions said that Iranian authorities have arrested several members of the Kurdish groups.[35] A member of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan—one of several large Iranian Kurdish separatist factions—said IRGC units deployed to schools in Kurdish areas of Iran and conducted house searches for suspects and weapons following Israeli airstrikes in Iran on June 12. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei recently appointed Brigadier General Mohammad Karami as the IRGC Ground Forces commander, which further illustrates the regime's concerns about potential domestic unrest, given that Karami was previously involved in suppressing internal dissent.[36]
Iran's efforts to securitize the country (and the particular focus on Kurdish areas) may reflect the regime's concerns that Israel could exploit instability in Kurdish or minority areas to further infiltrate Iran. The Iranian regime has historically been concerned about unrest in Kurdish-dominated areas of northwestern Iran. A significant portion of the protests during the Mahsa Amini Protest movement in December 2022 occurred in cities in Tehran, Esfahan, Kurdistan, and West Azerbaijan provinces.[37] Kurdistan and West Azerbaijan provinces have a large Iranian Kurdish population that resonated with the protest movement. The recent arrests were reportedly concentrated in Kermanshah, Esfahan, Khuzestan, Fars, Lorestan, and Tehran provinces.[38] Iran has historically also accused Kurdish opposition groups and Israel of using Iraqi Kurdistan to facilitate operations into Iran. Iranian state media accused Kurdish opposition groups of helping Israel smuggle military equipment into Iran that Israel used in its January 2023 drone attack on a munitions factory in Esfahan, for example.[39]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-25-2025
“The head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization, Mohammed Eslami, stated on June 24 that Iran is assessing the damage to its nuclear program and planning to resume operations”
Good luck with that.
Iran has made the recognition of its right to enrich uranium a precondition for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to be able to inspect Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran's Guardian Council approved a bill on June 26 that suspends Iran's cooperation with the IAEA and bars inspectors from accessing Iran's nuclear facilities.[18] The bill requires Iran to suspend cooperation with the IAEA until the IAEA recognizes Iran's right to enrich uranium.[19] The bill also states that the international community must show “full respect...[for the] security of nuclear sites and scientists,” likely to try to protect Iran's nuclear facilities from further US or Israeli strikes.[20] Iran has historically restricted IAEA oversight in Iran, including by withdrawing the certifications of several inspectors in September 2023 and barring other top inspectors in November 2024.[21]
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated on June 26 that Iran will not “surrender” to the United States during his third televised message to the Iranian public since June 12.[22] Khamenei claimed that the United States seeks nothing less than Iran's “surrender” and emphasized that Iran will not give in to this demand.[23] Khamenei claimed that Iran's confrontation with the United States is no longer confined to uranium enrichment and the Iranian nuclear program.[24] Khamenei also claimed that Iran achieved a “victory” over Israel and the United States.[25] Khamenei said that the Iranian attack on al Udeid Airbase in Qatar was a “hard slap” that “can be repeated.”[26]
Moderate elements within the Iranian regime may be using Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s isolation during the Israel-Iran War to try to exert greater political influence in the regime. Unspecified Iranian officials told the New York Times on June 26 that Khamenei is sheltering in a bunker under strict security and with limited communication.[27] Khamenei has not made any public appearances since the start of the Israeli air campaign in Iran on July 12 except for three pre-recorded televised speeches.[28] Khamenei’s isolation has reportedly spurred efforts by more moderate elements of the regime to play a more significant role in regime decision-making.[29] Four unspecified senior Iranian officials said that senior Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, and Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi, are part of a faction that supports a pragmatic and diplomatic approach to the conflict with the United States and Israel.[30] Ultraconservative politician and Paydari (Stability) Front leader Saeed Jalili and other conservative officials have openly challenged this pragmatic faction and opposed the ceasefire with Israel.[31] Jalili has criticized Pezeshkian and Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi for agreeing to the ceasefire with Israel and signaling openness to renewed nuclear negotiations with the United States.[32] Members of Jalili’s faction include hardliners in the Iranian Parliament and unspecified senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders.
The New York Times report about pragmatic and hardline factions vying for decision-making authority follows earlier indications of internal fissures in the regime. Opposition media reported on June 21 that former President Hassan Rouhani met with senior clerics in Qom to encourage them to persuade Khamenei to drop Iran's demand for uranium enrichment on Iranian soil and accept a ceasefire with Israel. Rouhani reportedly framed these efforts as a way to “save” the Islamic Republic.[33] Supreme Leader adviser Ali Larijani and Expediency Discernment Council head Sadegh Amoli Larijani reportedly attempted to contact Khamenei to advocate for a ceasefire but were unsuccessful.[34] The emergence of moderate elements during Khamenei’s isolation suggests that these elements may be using Khamenei’s absence to try to play a larger and more meaningful role in regime decision-making, particularly as these elements are typically sidelined by hardliners during normal times.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director Rafael Grossi stated on June 26 that centrifuges at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) are “no longer working” due to the US and Israeli strikes on the site.[35] Grossi stated that centrifuges are very “delicate” and that “even small vibrations can destroy them.”[36] The United States dropped 12 30,000-lb GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator (MOP) bunker-buster bombs on Fordow.[37] A GBU-57 MOP can carry 5,000 pounds of explosives.[38] The six entry points of the US bunker-buster bombs at Fordow were above two weak points, and the bombs would have detonated within the facility. The Institute for Science and International Security previously assessed that the bomb blast would have been channeled by the centrifuge cascade hall's side walls, which would have destroyed all of the installed centrifuges in the hall.[39] The IAEA reported in May 2025 that FFEP houses six operating IR-1 and seven operating advanced IR-6 cascades.[40] Each cascade is comprised of approximately 160 to 170 centrifuges. Fordow was responsible for producing nearly 90 percent of Iran's 60 percent enriched uranium stockpile in the last IAEA reporting period from February to May 2025.[41]
Satellite imagery from June 24 showed damage to access roads leading to Fordow due to Israeli strikes.[42] Israel conducted airstrikes on June 23 targeting roads leading to FFEP in order to “disrupt” access to the site.[43] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Israeli strikes on access roads to Fordow may prevent Iran from being able to assess and repair damage at Fordow or move materials from the site to other locations.[44]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-26-2025
US and Israeli strikes severely set back Iran's enrichment capabilities, but Iran's enriched uranium stockpile poses a long-term threat. The United States dropped twelve 30,000lb GBU-57 bunker buster bombs on Fordow, directly targeted points above the centrifuge cascade hall, and likely destroyed all six IR-1 and seven IR-6 cascades that produced nearly 90 percent of Iran's 60 percent enriched uranium as of the last IAEA reporting period.[1] IAEA Director Rafael Grossi confirmed on June 26 that the Fordow centrifuges are “no longer working” and emphasized that small vibrations can destroy them.[2] The Institute for Science and International Security assessed that the twelve 30,000lb GBU-57s—over 180 tons of bombs—detonated inside the facility after traveling through the Fordow ventilation shafts.[3] These bombs would have generated a blast wave far more significant than small vibrations.
Iranian enriched uranium stockpiles could pose a threat if Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear program over the following years. Iranian officials have maintained Iran's stated right to enrich uranium on Iranian soil despite the US and Israeli air campaign. Two unspecified officials told the Financial Times on June 26 that Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile “remains largely intact” following the US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, citing “preliminary intelligence assessments provided to European governments.”[4] The Institute for Science and International Security also noted that Iran still retains stockpiles of 3 to 5 percent, 20 percent, and 60 percent enriched uranium, which Iran would need to enrich further to weapons-grade (90% enrichment).[5] Uranium enrichment is logarithmic, meaning that ”the higher [the concentration of Uranium], the easier it gets” to enrich to higher levels.[6] The destruction of so many centrifuges between June 12 and June 24 will still make enriching from 60 percent to 90 percent much slower. US and Israeli airstrikes on Fordow and other enrichment facilities could have buried enriched uranium underground, which would limit access to the material, but could not have destroyed the material. Conventional explosives cannot destroy enriched uranium. Iran may have moved some enriched uranium from its nuclear facilities to other locations ahead of Israeli strikes, according to some reports.[7] The White House has rejected reports that suggest Iran relocated enriched material ahead of US airstrikes on June 21.[8]
The degradation of Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities will temporarily prevent Iran from enriching to 90 percent weapons-grade uranium, though Iran could enrich to weapons-grade if it can install surviving centrifuges at a new facility.[9] Iran could attempt to build a simple gun-type nuclear bomb, which is similar to the US atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. A gun-type weapon would need at least 25kg of 90 percent enriched uranium. Iran would only be able to deliver such a weapon using an aircraft or other, more rudimentary delivery weapon, however. Iran would also still require the know-how and facilities to build such a weapon. It is unclear if Iran retains the know-how or facilities needed to build a weapon after Israel's decapitation campaign targeting nuclear scientists and the US-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities.[10] A US weapons expert noted that US and Israeli strikes have “significantly” increased the time required for Iran to even build a non-missile deliverable weapon, such as a nuclear bomb.[11]
A top Israeli official said Israel is preparing to resume operations against Iran if necessary. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on June 27 that he directed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to prepare plans for additional operations against Iran to preserve Israeli air superiority, prevent reconstruction of Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and disrupt Iranian support to members of the Axis of Resistance.[16] Iranian officials have repeatedly maintained that Iran has the right to enrich uranium on Iranian soil and have stated their intent to resume operations at nuclear facilities.[17]
Mossad’s Farsi-language X account warned Iranian civilians to take precautions to ensure their safety during Israeli attacks.[18] Mossad warned Iranians to avoid Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) personnel and bases, and regime vehicles. Mossad specifically warned civilians to avoid IRGC personnel who receive calls or messages on their personal devices, which could make IRGC officials less likely to use their communication devices. Israel detonated personal pagers and radios in a coordinated attack on Hezbollah communication systems in September 2025, which resulted in 1,000s of Hezbollah casualties and disruptions to its command and control.[19] Mossad’s warning poses a dilemma for the IRGC by being forced to either disrupt their communications network or accept the risk of such an attack. Mossad’s warning could cause IRGC personnel to disrupt their own communications network by abandoning regular systems to adopt safer but less efficient ways of communicating.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was reportedly not informed of the Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement prior to the Supreme National Security Council's (SNSC) decision to accept the agreement. The SNSC does contain one official whom the supreme leader appoints as a personal representative, however.[22] Unspecified officials cited by IranWire on June 22 claimed that Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, former Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani, and former head of the Iranian judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, were unable to contact Khamenei to advocate for renewed negotiations with the United States.[23] Unspecified Iranian officials cited by the New York Times on June 23 reported that Khamenei relocated to a secure bunker and only communicated with senior officials via courier.[24] Khamenei’s seclusion very likely inhibited effective communication between senior Iranian officials and Khamenei. Unspecified sources cited by Iranian opposition media on June 27 claimed that the SNSC was unable to reach Khamenei to discuss the ceasefire. The sources added that the SNSC was forced to decide whether or not to accept the US-brokered ceasefire without Khamenei’s input due to time constraints.[25]
The IDF struck internal security and social control centers in Tehran during its air campaign and targeted the Basij headquarters and Evin Prison.
The Iranian regime continues to take counterintelligence steps that likely reflect the regime's paranoia about Israeli infiltration. First Deputy of the Iranian Judiciary Hamzeh Khalili stated on June 27 that the judiciary will pursue Israeli “spies” and called on Iranians to inform the authorities of any dangerous or suspicious activities.[34] Iranian media reported on June 25 that Iranian security forces have arrested at least 700 Iranians on political or security charges since the start of the Israel-Iran War on June 12.[35] The arrests include several individuals whom the regime characterized as “Mossad spies.”[36] CTP-ISW assessed on June 25 that such arrests likely reflect Iranian recognition of the scale of Israeli infiltration and covert operations in Iran, which was revealed during Israel's opening attacks on Israel.[37] Iran has continued to arrest alleged Mossad spies across Iran. Iran's concern about Israeli infiltration and covert operations in Iran may be used as a justification for broader crackdowns on society.
The IDF estimated on June 27 that it killed between 200-300 IRGC and Basij members in strikes targeting IRGC headquarters in Tehran in the 24 hours before the ceasefire went into effect at 12:00 AM ET on June 24.[38] The Basij is a paramilitary organization that recruits and organizes regime loyalists and uses them to produce and disseminate propaganda, suppress internal dissent, and conduct civil defense operations.[39] The IDF struck the Basij headquarters, the IRGC Ground Forces Sarallah Operational Base, and other IRGC headquarters in Tehran on June 23.[40] The IRGC Sarallah Operational Base is responsible for security in Tehran and oversees the 10th Seyyed ol Shohada Operational Division in Karaj, Alborz Province, and the 27th Mohammad Rasoul Ollah Operational Division in Tehran City.[41] An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported on June 23 that the IDF estimated that it had killed many IRGC personnel in its strikes on IRGC facilities.[42]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-27-2025
The timeline for the strike and the ceasefire
Scott Lucas Times Radio https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOaMX3C-mj0
Iran Update, June 28, 2025
Information Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET
US and Israeli airstrikes on the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) between June 12 and 24 reportedly destroyed components of Iran’s nuclear program that would be necessary for weaponization.[1] The strikes destroyed the Uranium Metal Conversion Plant at the ENTC, which Iran could have used to transform uranium gas into dense metal in a process called metallization.[2] This process is one of the last steps required to form the explosive core of an atomic bomb.[3] The Institute for Science and International Security reported on June 24 that the plant was not operational before it was struck.[4] Israel launched an air campaign on June 12 with the stated objective of degrading, disrupting, and removing the threat of the Iranian nuclear program.[5] The destruction of Iran’s metallization process and the loss of several Iranian nuclear scientists would hinder Iran’s ability to turn weapons-grade uranium, or 90 percent enriched uranium, into a usable nuclear weapon. The Israeli campaign has also “effectively destroyed” Iran’s enrichment capacity. [6]
Iran may have begun repair operations at the Natanz Enrichment Complex. Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 27 shows that Iran has filled in a crater that was formed by US GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs. The imagery shows what appears to be two tents and a truck present at the impact site. Israeli media and open-source watchers claimed that Iran may be trying to extract enriched uranium buried at Natanz.[7] CTP-ISW cannot independently verify this claim.
US and Israeli strikes may have targeted Iranian enriched uranium stockpiles at the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC).[10] Israel’s June 13 strike on the ENTC damaged the Tehran Reactor Fuel Manufacturing Plan (FPFP) and the Central Chemical Laboratory. The FPFP produces natural uranium metal and stored approximately 85 percent of Iran’s 20 percent enriched uranium stockpile and 83 percent of Iran’s 60 percent enriched uranium stockpile as of August 2023. It is unclear how much, if any, of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile was at FPFP at the time of US and Israeli strikes. The ENTC includes several uranium conversion facilities, fuel fabrication facilities, natural and enriched uranium storage, and uranium metal production facilities. US and Israeli airstrikes on ENTC and other enrichment facilities could have buried enriched uranium underground, which would limit access to the material, but could not have destroyed the material.
Israeli strikes targeted senior Iranian military and security officials across multiple branches, likely in an effort to degrade Iran’s command and control structure. The IDF targeted Iranian Artesh personnel, including members of the Artesh Air Defense Force, during its air campaign.[11] Iranian media confirmed on June 28 that the IDF killed 56 Artesh members, including at least three Artesh generals and 16 conscript soldiers.[12] The generals include 71st Mechanized Infantry Brigade Commander General Ali Hossein Mohammadi and two senior Air Defense Force officers, General Ali Piri and General Gholam Ali Najafi.[13]
Iranian media confirmed that the IDF killed 41 IRGC members in its June 22 strike on the IRGC Ground Forces Imam Hassan Mojtaba Provincial Unit in Karaj, Alborz Province.[14] CTP-ISW previously reported some of these deaths on June 23.[15]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-28-2025
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