The US Air Force deployed six air-to-air refueling aircraft to California and Hawaii. The aircraft support combat operations by enhancing the ability of aircraft to project force.
Israel has continued to strike Iranian air defense and missile forces. These strikes have helped Israel achieve air superiority over parts of Iran and preempt Iranian missile attacks.
Israel has continued to strike the Iranian internal security apparatus, which could degrade the ability of the regime to repress its people.
Iran has continued to fire drones at Israel, but these attacks are relatively ineffective due to the amount of time Israel has to react to Iranian drone attacks. The drones employed by Iran to target Israel take roughly nine hours to reach Israel, which enables Israel to scramble aircraft or direct aircraft on combat air patrol to intercept incoming projectiles. The IDF has intercepted four drones targeting Israel since CTP-ISW’s 5:00 PM ET data cutoff on June 19.[22] The IDF intercepted an Iranian drone over Haifa in northern Israel.[23] The IDF also intercepted three Iranian drones over the Dead Sea.[24] These drone interceptions occurred in three separate waves that were reported at 5:20 PM ET, 8:05 PM ET, and 8:38 PM ET.[25] None of the three waves appears calibrated to enter Israeli airspace at the same time as the ballistic missile attack mentioned above, which was reported at 10:48 PM ET.[26] This means that the drones presumably failed to strain Israeli air defense bandwidth like they would if the drones entered Israeli airspace at the same time as the ballistic missiles.
Iran Update Special Report, June 20, 2025, Evening Edition
Information Cutoff: 5:00 PM ET
Iran is attempting to impose a dilemma on the United States and the international community: accept Iranian terms in nuclear negotiations or risk a long and challenging hunt for hidden Iranian nuclear material. This dilemma is likely designed to harden Iran's nuclear program against destruction either by securing an agreement on Iranian terms (which would presumably allow Iran to continue enrichment) or protecting Iranian nuclear material by hiding the material, thus making a US or Israeli effort to destroy the material more difficult.
Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Mohsen Rezaei stated during an interview on June 20 that Iran has relocated its enriched material to a secure location to prevent it from being destroyed.[1] This statement is presumably intended to suggest to a Western audience that destroying all of Iran's nuclear material would require a long, challenging, and possibly futile hunt for hidden material and that, therefore, the West should negotiate with Iran. Iranian officials have expressed their interest in negotiating a nuclear deal with the United States, but have not moderated their negotiating position from before the conflict.[2]
Iran remains committed to preserving its stated “right” to enrich uranium.[3] These Iranian demands over enrichment have been a non-starter for the United States and Israel in the ongoing negotiations, suggesting Rezaei’s statement is designed to increase the pressure on the United States and Israel to relax their positions. The United States and Israel have rejected Iranian demands and maintained that Iran will not be permitted to enrich uranium on Iranian soil.[4] Israel launched its air campaign on June 12 to “degrade, destroy, and remove [the] threat” of Iranian weaponization of its nuclear program, and a senior Israeli official said that enrichment remains a red line.[5] US President Donald Trump has threatened to support an air campaign targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure if Iran fails to meet US demands for zero enrichment.[6]
International Atomic Energy Agency Director Rafael Grossi warned of a dangerous degradation of nuclear security at Iranian nuclear sites due to Israeli strikes.[26] Grossi addressed the United Nations Security Council on June 20 to present the IAEA’s findings on nuclear security concerns amid the Israeli air campaign. He noted that further damage to Iranian nuclear facilities could result in radiological leaks that could endanger surrounding populations. Grossi noted that Israeli airstrikes targeting the Natanz enrichment site on June 13 destroyed electricity infrastructure and seriously damaged underground nuclear cascade facility. He noted that there was no observed radioactivity outside the facility following the strikes, but suggested that there could be contamination within the facility. Grossi stated that Israeli airstrikes on June 13 also damaged the central chemical laboratory, a uranium conversion plant, the Tehran reactor-fuel manufacturing plant, and the enriched uranium metal processing facility at the Esfahan nuclear site. Grossi confirmed that the Khondab Heavy Water Research Reactor in Arak, Markazi Province, was not operational at the time of Israel's June 19 airstrike. Grossi issued a strong warning that any damage to the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant could result in a “very high” release of radioactivity into the environment. Grossi stated that a strike that destabilized power to the facility could cause the reactor's core to melt and release radioactivity into the environment. He explained that damage to the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant would require relocating the nearby population several hundred kilometers away from the facility and providing iodine tablets to prevent radiation poisoning.
What’s Going on With Middle East Tankers | Oil Freight & War Risk Rates Jump | Iran Empties Out Oil
June 19, 2025 In this episode, Sal Mercogliano — a maritime historian at Campbell University (@campbelledu) and former merchant mariner — discusses what’s going on with Middle East tankers as Iran and Israel exchange blows.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6aLCFUSk9Os
14 min
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil
Israel continued its strike campaign targeting Iranian air defenses, missile forces, and nuclear sites. These sites include one in Esfahan that produced centrifuges.
Israel struck and killed senior officers in the IRGC Aerospace Force and Quds Force, which may impose a temporary disruption upon Iranian command-and-control.
An Iranian drone struck a populated area in Israel for the first time during this war. This is not indicative of a systematic breakdown in Israeli air defenses. Integrated air defense systems are not perfect, and some projectiles will impact their targets.
Iran conducted another ballistic missile attack targeting Israel. It consisted of five missiles, all of which the IDF intercepted.
Iran Update Special Report, June 21, 2025, Evening Edition
Information Cutoff: 5:00 PM ET
Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has begun implementing emergency succession measures in response to escalating Israeli strikes and the potential for US military involvement.[1] Unspecified Iranian sources told the New York Times on June 21 that Khamenei has relocated to a secure bunker, suspended digital communications, and now communicates with senior commanders only through a trusted aide.[2] Sources added that Khamenei named three senior clerics as candidates to replace him if he is killed.[3] Khamanei also reportedly named replacements for top military commanders and ordered senior officials to work from underground offices and avoid using cellphones.[4] These steps mark the first reported instance of Khamenei directly selecting potential successors outside the formal process of the Assembly of Experts. Khamenei likely took these steps amid heightened assassination fears, as some Israeli officials, including Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, have openly threatened Khamenei’s life.[5] Two unspecified US officials told Reuters on June 15 that the US President Donald Trump vetoed an Israeli plan to kill Khamenei, however.[6] Trump separately stated on June 17 that the United States knows “exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding” but would not “take him out, at least not for now.”[7]
Khamenei’s previous actions indicate that the three possible replacements are almost certainly equally as ideological as he is. Khamenei previously met with the Assembly of Experts members in November 2024 and emphasized that the next Supreme Leader must “embody the revolution” and implement Islam in Iranian society.[8] Khamenei did not name a successor at the meeting, however. Esfahan interim Friday Prayer Leader and Assembly of Experts member Abdolhasan Mahdavi confirmed a week after Khamenei’s meeting in November 2024 that the assembly had confidentially identified and prioritized three candidates for succession and framed it as “a routine responsibility.”[9] The Assembly of Experts is an 88-member elected clerical body tasked with appointing, supervising, and—at least in theory—removing the Supreme Leader, though in practice it has never challenged the position and plays a limited role in day-to-day politics.[10] The only previous leadership transition in Iran occurred in 1989 under different political conditions. The current assembly was elected in March 2024 and will serve until 2032.[11]
It remains unclear who Khamenei selected as his potential successor. Unspecified sources added that Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei’s son and frequently rumored successor, is not among the designated candidates, however.[12] Former President Ebrahim Raisi, another widely speculated figure, died in a helicopter crash in May 2024 and is no longer in consideration.[13] Khamenei’s decision reflects his concerns about external threats and potential instability after his death, as the regime expects opposition groups and anti-regime actors to exploit any leadership vacuum.[14] Opposition groups and anti-regime actors are more likely to try to exploit such a vacuum during a war.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director Rafael Grossi reported that renewed Israeli strikes targeting the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) on June 21 caused additional damage to the facility.[59] The IDF previously struck the ENTC on June 13, which damaged the central chemical laboratory, a uranium conversion facility, a reactor fuel manufacturing plant, and an enriched uranium metal processing facility. Grossi stated that the renewed Israeli strikes on June 21 damaged six other buildings at the ENTC. Grossi stated that the Israeli airstrikes damaged a natural and depleted uranium metal production facility that was not operational at the time of Israel's June 21 airstrike. Grossi noted that the Israeli airstrikes on June 21 also damaged a fuel rod production facility, a building with low-enriched uranium pellet production, a laboratory and nuclear material storage, another laboratory building, a workshop handling contaminated equipment, and an office building with no nuclear material. Grossi noted that the targeted facilities either contained no nuclear material or small quantities of natural or low-enrichment uranium. Grossi assessed that there is no risk of off-site contamination.