US and Israeli strikes severely set back Iran's enrichment capabilities, but Iran's enriched uranium stockpile poses a long-term threat. The United States dropped twelve 30,000lb GBU-57 bunker buster bombs on Fordow, directly targeted points above the centrifuge cascade hall, and likely destroyed all six IR-1 and seven IR-6 cascades that produced nearly 90 percent of Iran's 60 percent enriched uranium as of the last IAEA reporting period.[1] IAEA Director Rafael Grossi confirmed on June 26 that the Fordow centrifuges are “no longer working” and emphasized that small vibrations can destroy them.[2] The Institute for Science and International Security assessed that the twelve 30,000lb GBU-57s—over 180 tons of bombs—detonated inside the facility after traveling through the Fordow ventilation shafts.[3] These bombs would have generated a blast wave far more significant than small vibrations.
Iranian enriched uranium stockpiles could pose a threat if Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear program over the following years. Iranian officials have maintained Iran's stated right to enrich uranium on Iranian soil despite the US and Israeli air campaign. Two unspecified officials told the Financial Times on June 26 that Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile “remains largely intact” following the US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, citing “preliminary intelligence assessments provided to European governments.”[4] The Institute for Science and International Security also noted that Iran still retains stockpiles of 3 to 5 percent, 20 percent, and 60 percent enriched uranium, which Iran would need to enrich further to weapons-grade (90% enrichment).[5] Uranium enrichment is logarithmic, meaning that ”the higher [the concentration of Uranium], the easier it gets” to enrich to higher levels.[6] The destruction of so many centrifuges between June 12 and June 24 will still make enriching from 60 percent to 90 percent much slower. US and Israeli airstrikes on Fordow and other enrichment facilities could have buried enriched uranium underground, which would limit access to the material, but could not have destroyed the material. Conventional explosives cannot destroy enriched uranium. Iran may have moved some enriched uranium from its nuclear facilities to other locations ahead of Israeli strikes, according to some reports.[7] The White House has rejected reports that suggest Iran relocated enriched material ahead of US airstrikes on June 21.[8]
The degradation of Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities will temporarily prevent Iran from enriching to 90 percent weapons-grade uranium, though Iran could enrich to weapons-grade if it can install surviving centrifuges at a new facility.[9] Iran could attempt to build a simple gun-type nuclear bomb, which is similar to the US atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. A gun-type weapon would need at least 25kg of 90 percent enriched uranium. Iran would only be able to deliver such a weapon using an aircraft or other, more rudimentary delivery weapon, however. Iran would also still require the know-how and facilities to build such a weapon. It is unclear if Iran retains the know-how or facilities needed to build a weapon after Israel's decapitation campaign targeting nuclear scientists and the US-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities.[10] A US weapons expert noted that US and Israeli strikes have “significantly” increased the time required for Iran to even build a non-missile deliverable weapon, such as a nuclear bomb.[11]
A top Israeli official said Israel is preparing to resume operations against Iran if necessary. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on June 27 that he directed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to prepare plans for additional operations against Iran to preserve Israeli air superiority, prevent reconstruction of Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and disrupt Iranian support to members of the Axis of Resistance.[16] Iranian officials have repeatedly maintained that Iran has the right to enrich uranium on Iranian soil and have stated their intent to resume operations at nuclear facilities.[17]
Mossad’s Farsi-language X account warned Iranian civilians to take precautions to ensure their safety during Israeli attacks.[18] Mossad warned Iranians to avoid Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) personnel and bases, and regime vehicles. Mossad specifically warned civilians to avoid IRGC personnel who receive calls or messages on their personal devices, which could make IRGC officials less likely to use their communication devices. Israel detonated personal pagers and radios in a coordinated attack on Hezbollah communication systems in September 2025, which resulted in 1,000s of Hezbollah casualties and disruptions to its command and control.[19] Mossad’s warning poses a dilemma for the IRGC by being forced to either disrupt their communications network or accept the risk of such an attack. Mossad’s warning could cause IRGC personnel to disrupt their own communications network by abandoning regular systems to adopt safer but less efficient ways of communicating.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was reportedly not informed of the Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement prior to the Supreme National Security Council's (SNSC) decision to accept the agreement. The SNSC does contain one official whom the supreme leader appoints as a personal representative, however.[22] Unspecified officials cited by IranWire on June 22 claimed that Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, former Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani, and former head of the Iranian judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, were unable to contact Khamenei to advocate for renewed negotiations with the United States.[23] Unspecified Iranian officials cited by the New York Times on June 23 reported that Khamenei relocated to a secure bunker and only communicated with senior officials via courier.[24] Khamenei’s seclusion very likely inhibited effective communication between senior Iranian officials and Khamenei. Unspecified sources cited by Iranian opposition media on June 27 claimed that the SNSC was unable to reach Khamenei to discuss the ceasefire. The sources added that the SNSC was forced to decide whether or not to accept the US-brokered ceasefire without Khamenei’s input due to time constraints.[25]
The IDF struck internal security and social control centers in Tehran during its air campaign and targeted the Basij headquarters and Evin Prison.
The Iranian regime continues to take counterintelligence steps that likely reflect the regime's paranoia about Israeli infiltration. First Deputy of the Iranian Judiciary Hamzeh Khalili stated on June 27 that the judiciary will pursue Israeli “spies” and called on Iranians to inform the authorities of any dangerous or suspicious activities.[34] Iranian media reported on June 25 that Iranian security forces have arrested at least 700 Iranians on political or security charges since the start of the Israel-Iran War on June 12.[35] The arrests include several individuals whom the regime characterized as “Mossad spies.”[36] CTP-ISW assessed on June 25 that such arrests likely reflect Iranian recognition of the scale of Israeli infiltration and covert operations in Iran, which was revealed during Israel's opening attacks on Israel.[37] Iran has continued to arrest alleged Mossad spies across Iran. Iran's concern about Israeli infiltration and covert operations in Iran may be used as a justification for broader crackdowns on society.
The IDF estimated on June 27 that it killed between 200-300 IRGC and Basij members in strikes targeting IRGC headquarters in Tehran in the 24 hours before the ceasefire went into effect at 12:00 AM ET on June 24.[38] The Basij is a paramilitary organization that recruits and organizes regime loyalists and uses them to produce and disseminate propaganda, suppress internal dissent, and conduct civil defense operations.[39] The IDF struck the Basij headquarters, the IRGC Ground Forces Sarallah Operational Base, and other IRGC headquarters in Tehran on June 23.[40] The IRGC Sarallah Operational Base is responsible for security in Tehran and oversees the 10th Seyyed ol Shohada Operational Division in Karaj, Alborz Province, and the 27th Mohammad Rasoul Ollah Operational Division in Tehran City.[41] An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported on June 23 that the IDF estimated that it had killed many IRGC personnel in its strikes on IRGC facilities.[42]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-27-2025
The timeline for the strike and the ceasefire
Scott Lucas Times Radio https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fOaMX3C-mj0
Iran Update, June 28, 2025
Information Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET
US and Israeli airstrikes on the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) between June 12 and 24 reportedly destroyed components of Iran’s nuclear program that would be necessary for weaponization.[1] The strikes destroyed the Uranium Metal Conversion Plant at the ENTC, which Iran could have used to transform uranium gas into dense metal in a process called metallization.[2] This process is one of the last steps required to form the explosive core of an atomic bomb.[3] The Institute for Science and International Security reported on June 24 that the plant was not operational before it was struck.[4] Israel launched an air campaign on June 12 with the stated objective of degrading, disrupting, and removing the threat of the Iranian nuclear program.[5] The destruction of Iran’s metallization process and the loss of several Iranian nuclear scientists would hinder Iran’s ability to turn weapons-grade uranium, or 90 percent enriched uranium, into a usable nuclear weapon. The Israeli campaign has also “effectively destroyed” Iran’s enrichment capacity. [6]
Iran may have begun repair operations at the Natanz Enrichment Complex. Commercially available satellite imagery captured on June 27 shows that Iran has filled in a crater that was formed by US GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs. The imagery shows what appears to be two tents and a truck present at the impact site. Israeli media and open-source watchers claimed that Iran may be trying to extract enriched uranium buried at Natanz.[7] CTP-ISW cannot independently verify this claim.
US and Israeli strikes may have targeted Iranian enriched uranium stockpiles at the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC).[10] Israel’s June 13 strike on the ENTC damaged the Tehran Reactor Fuel Manufacturing Plan (FPFP) and the Central Chemical Laboratory. The FPFP produces natural uranium metal and stored approximately 85 percent of Iran’s 20 percent enriched uranium stockpile and 83 percent of Iran’s 60 percent enriched uranium stockpile as of August 2023. It is unclear how much, if any, of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile was at FPFP at the time of US and Israeli strikes. The ENTC includes several uranium conversion facilities, fuel fabrication facilities, natural and enriched uranium storage, and uranium metal production facilities. US and Israeli airstrikes on ENTC and other enrichment facilities could have buried enriched uranium underground, which would limit access to the material, but could not have destroyed the material.
Israeli strikes targeted senior Iranian military and security officials across multiple branches, likely in an effort to degrade Iran’s command and control structure. The IDF targeted Iranian Artesh personnel, including members of the Artesh Air Defense Force, during its air campaign.[11] Iranian media confirmed on June 28 that the IDF killed 56 Artesh members, including at least three Artesh generals and 16 conscript soldiers.[12] The generals include 71st Mechanized Infantry Brigade Commander General Ali Hossein Mohammadi and two senior Air Defense Force officers, General Ali Piri and General Gholam Ali Najafi.[13]
Iranian media confirmed that the IDF killed 41 IRGC members in its June 22 strike on the IRGC Ground Forces Imam Hassan Mojtaba Provincial Unit in Karaj, Alborz Province.[14] CTP-ISW previously reported some of these deaths on June 23.[15]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-28-2025