Iran Update, June 26, 2025
Iran has made the recognition of its right to enrich uranium a precondition for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to be able to inspect Iranian nuclear facilities. Iran's Guardian Council approved a bill on June 26 that suspends Iran's cooperation with the IAEA and bars inspectors from accessing Iran's nuclear facilities.[18] The bill requires Iran to suspend cooperation with the IAEA until the IAEA recognizes Iran's right to enrich uranium.[19] The bill also states that the international community must show “full respect...[for the] security of nuclear sites and scientists,” likely to try to protect Iran's nuclear facilities from further US or Israeli strikes.[20] Iran has historically restricted IAEA oversight in Iran, including by withdrawing the certifications of several inspectors in September 2023 and barring other top inspectors in November 2024.[21]
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reiterated on June 26 that Iran will not “surrender” to the United States during his third televised message to the Iranian public since June 12.[22] Khamenei claimed that the United States seeks nothing less than Iran's “surrender” and emphasized that Iran will not give in to this demand.[23] Khamenei claimed that Iran's confrontation with the United States is no longer confined to uranium enrichment and the Iranian nuclear program.[24] Khamenei also claimed that Iran achieved a “victory” over Israel and the United States.[25] Khamenei said that the Iranian attack on al Udeid Airbase in Qatar was a “hard slap” that “can be repeated.”[26]
Moderate elements within the Iranian regime may be using Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s isolation during the Israel-Iran War to try to exert greater political influence in the regime. Unspecified Iranian officials told the New York Times on June 26 that Khamenei is sheltering in a bunker under strict security and with limited communication.[27] Khamenei has not made any public appearances since the start of the Israeli air campaign in Iran on July 12 except for three pre-recorded televised speeches.[28] Khamenei’s isolation has reportedly spurred efforts by more moderate elements of the regime to play a more significant role in regime decision-making.[29] Four unspecified senior Iranian officials said that senior Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, Judiciary Chief Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejei, and Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Abdol Rahim Mousavi, are part of a faction that supports a pragmatic and diplomatic approach to the conflict with the United States and Israel.[30] Ultraconservative politician and Paydari (Stability) Front leader Saeed Jalili and other conservative officials have openly challenged this pragmatic faction and opposed the ceasefire with Israel.[31] Jalili has criticized Pezeshkian and Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi for agreeing to the ceasefire with Israel and signaling openness to renewed nuclear negotiations with the United States.[32] Members of Jalili’s faction include hardliners in the Iranian Parliament and unspecified senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders.
The New York Times report about pragmatic and hardline factions vying for decision-making authority follows earlier indications of internal fissures in the regime. Opposition media reported on June 21 that former President Hassan Rouhani met with senior clerics in Qom to encourage them to persuade Khamenei to drop Iran's demand for uranium enrichment on Iranian soil and accept a ceasefire with Israel. Rouhani reportedly framed these efforts as a way to “save” the Islamic Republic.[33] Supreme Leader adviser Ali Larijani and Expediency Discernment Council head Sadegh Amoli Larijani reportedly attempted to contact Khamenei to advocate for a ceasefire but were unsuccessful.[34] The emergence of moderate elements during Khamenei’s isolation suggests that these elements may be using Khamenei’s absence to try to play a larger and more meaningful role in regime decision-making, particularly as these elements are typically sidelined by hardliners during normal times.
International Atomic Energy Agency Director Rafael Grossi stated on June 26 that centrifuges at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP) are “no longer working” due to the US and Israeli strikes on the site.[35] Grossi stated that centrifuges are very “delicate” and that “even small vibrations can destroy them.”[36] The United States dropped 12 30,000-lb GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator (MOP) bunker-buster bombs on Fordow.[37] A GBU-57 MOP can carry 5,000 pounds of explosives.[38] The six entry points of the US bunker-buster bombs at Fordow were above two weak points, and the bombs would have detonated within the facility. The Institute for Science and International Security previously assessed that the bomb blast would have been channeled by the centrifuge cascade hall's side walls, which would have destroyed all of the installed centrifuges in the hall.[39] The IAEA reported in May 2025 that FFEP houses six operating IR-1 and seven operating advanced IR-6 cascades.[40] Each cascade is comprised of approximately 160 to 170 centrifuges. Fordow was responsible for producing nearly 90 percent of Iran's 60 percent enriched uranium stockpile in the last IAEA reporting period from February to May 2025.[41]
Satellite imagery from June 24 showed damage to access roads leading to Fordow due to Israeli strikes.[42] Israel conducted airstrikes on June 23 targeting roads leading to FFEP in order to “disrupt” access to the site.[43] CTP-ISW previously assessed that Israeli strikes on access roads to Fordow may prevent Iran from being able to assess and repair damage at Fordow or move materials from the site to other locations.[44]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-26-2025
Iran Update, June 27, 2025
Information Cutoff: 2:00 PM ET
US and Israeli strikes severely set back Iran's enrichment capabilities, but Iran's enriched uranium stockpile poses a long-term threat. The United States dropped twelve 30,000lb GBU-57 bunker buster bombs on Fordow, directly targeted points above the centrifuge cascade hall, and likely destroyed all six IR-1 and seven IR-6 cascades that produced nearly 90 percent of Iran's 60 percent enriched uranium as of the last IAEA reporting period.[1] IAEA Director Rafael Grossi confirmed on June 26 that the Fordow centrifuges are “no longer working” and emphasized that small vibrations can destroy them.[2] The Institute for Science and International Security assessed that the twelve 30,000lb GBU-57s—over 180 tons of bombs—detonated inside the facility after traveling through the Fordow ventilation shafts.[3] These bombs would have generated a blast wave far more significant than small vibrations.
Iranian enriched uranium stockpiles could pose a threat if Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear program over the following years. Iranian officials have maintained Iran's stated right to enrich uranium on Iranian soil despite the US and Israeli air campaign. Two unspecified officials told the Financial Times on June 26 that Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile “remains largely intact” following the US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities, citing “preliminary intelligence assessments provided to European governments.”[4] The Institute for Science and International Security also noted that Iran still retains stockpiles of 3 to 5 percent, 20 percent, and 60 percent enriched uranium, which Iran would need to enrich further to weapons-grade (90% enrichment).[5] Uranium enrichment is logarithmic, meaning that ”the higher [the concentration of Uranium], the easier it gets” to enrich to higher levels.[6] The destruction of so many centrifuges between June 12 and June 24 will still make enriching from 60 percent to 90 percent much slower. US and Israeli airstrikes on Fordow and other enrichment facilities could have buried enriched uranium underground, which would limit access to the material, but could not have destroyed the material. Conventional explosives cannot destroy enriched uranium. Iran may have moved some enriched uranium from its nuclear facilities to other locations ahead of Israeli strikes, according to some reports.[7] The White House has rejected reports that suggest Iran relocated enriched material ahead of US airstrikes on June 21.[8]
The degradation of Iran's uranium enrichment capabilities will temporarily prevent Iran from enriching to 90 percent weapons-grade uranium, though Iran could enrich to weapons-grade if it can install surviving centrifuges at a new facility.[9] Iran could attempt to build a simple gun-type nuclear bomb, which is similar to the US atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. A gun-type weapon would need at least 25kg of 90 percent enriched uranium. Iran would only be able to deliver such a weapon using an aircraft or other, more rudimentary delivery weapon, however. Iran would also still require the know-how and facilities to build such a weapon. It is unclear if Iran retains the know-how or facilities needed to build a weapon after Israel's decapitation campaign targeting nuclear scientists and the US-Israeli strikes on nuclear facilities.[10] A US weapons expert noted that US and Israeli strikes have “significantly” increased the time required for Iran to even build a non-missile deliverable weapon, such as a nuclear bomb.[11]
A top Israeli official said Israel is preparing to resume operations against Iran if necessary. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on June 27 that he directed the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to prepare plans for additional operations against Iran to preserve Israeli air superiority, prevent reconstruction of Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, and disrupt Iranian support to members of the Axis of Resistance.[16] Iranian officials have repeatedly maintained that Iran has the right to enrich uranium on Iranian soil and have stated their intent to resume operations at nuclear facilities.[17]
Mossad’s Farsi-language X account warned Iranian civilians to take precautions to ensure their safety during Israeli attacks.[18] Mossad warned Iranians to avoid Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) personnel and bases, and regime vehicles. Mossad specifically warned civilians to avoid IRGC personnel who receive calls or messages on their personal devices, which could make IRGC officials less likely to use their communication devices. Israel detonated personal pagers and radios in a coordinated attack on Hezbollah communication systems in September 2025, which resulted in 1,000s of Hezbollah casualties and disruptions to its command and control.[19] Mossad’s warning poses a dilemma for the IRGC by being forced to either disrupt their communications network or accept the risk of such an attack. Mossad’s warning could cause IRGC personnel to disrupt their own communications network by abandoning regular systems to adopt safer but less efficient ways of communicating.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was reportedly not informed of the Israel-Iran ceasefire agreement prior to the Supreme National Security Council's (SNSC) decision to accept the agreement. The SNSC does contain one official whom the supreme leader appoints as a personal representative, however.[22] Unspecified officials cited by IranWire on June 22 claimed that Former Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, former Iranian parliament speaker Ali Larijani, and former head of the Iranian judiciary, Sadegh Larijani, were unable to contact Khamenei to advocate for renewed negotiations with the United States.[23] Unspecified Iranian officials cited by the New York Times on June 23 reported that Khamenei relocated to a secure bunker and only communicated with senior officials via courier.[24] Khamenei’s seclusion very likely inhibited effective communication between senior Iranian officials and Khamenei. Unspecified sources cited by Iranian opposition media on June 27 claimed that the SNSC was unable to reach Khamenei to discuss the ceasefire. The sources added that the SNSC was forced to decide whether or not to accept the US-brokered ceasefire without Khamenei’s input due to time constraints.[25]
The IDF struck internal security and social control centers in Tehran during its air campaign and targeted the Basij headquarters and Evin Prison.
The Iranian regime continues to take counterintelligence steps that likely reflect the regime's paranoia about Israeli infiltration. First Deputy of the Iranian Judiciary Hamzeh Khalili stated on June 27 that the judiciary will pursue Israeli “spies” and called on Iranians to inform the authorities of any dangerous or suspicious activities.[34] Iranian media reported on June 25 that Iranian security forces have arrested at least 700 Iranians on political or security charges since the start of the Israel-Iran War on June 12.[35] The arrests include several individuals whom the regime characterized as “Mossad spies.”[36] CTP-ISW assessed on June 25 that such arrests likely reflect Iranian recognition of the scale of Israeli infiltration and covert operations in Iran, which was revealed during Israel's opening attacks on Israel.[37] Iran has continued to arrest alleged Mossad spies across Iran. Iran's concern about Israeli infiltration and covert operations in Iran may be used as a justification for broader crackdowns on society.
The IDF estimated on June 27 that it killed between 200-300 IRGC and Basij members in strikes targeting IRGC headquarters in Tehran in the 24 hours before the ceasefire went into effect at 12:00 AM ET on June 24.[38] The Basij is a paramilitary organization that recruits and organizes regime loyalists and uses them to produce and disseminate propaganda, suppress internal dissent, and conduct civil defense operations.[39] The IDF struck the Basij headquarters, the IRGC Ground Forces Sarallah Operational Base, and other IRGC headquarters in Tehran on June 23.[40] The IRGC Sarallah Operational Base is responsible for security in Tehran and oversees the 10th Seyyed ol Shohada Operational Division in Karaj, Alborz Province, and the 27th Mohammad Rasoul Ollah Operational Division in Tehran City.[41] An Israeli Army Radio correspondent reported on June 23 that the IDF estimated that it had killed many IRGC personnel in its strikes on IRGC facilities.[42]
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-june-27-2025