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Influence of the Peltzman effect on the recurrent COVID-19 waves in Europe (are the vaxxed feeling 'free' and fueling infection via risky behavior?)
Postgraduate Medical Journal ^ | April 29, 2021 | Kumar Jain, Raju Vaishya, Rajesh Botchu, Pranav Ish, Karthikeyan P Iyengar

Posted on 07/24/2021 8:26:16 AM PDT by DoodleBob

The Peltzman effect is named after Sam Peltzman, professor of economics at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. It describes the concept of ‘Risk Compensation’...that people become more careful where they sense greater risk and lesser careful if they feel more protected....He proposed that though people felt safer driving with a seat belt, it probably led to a phenomenon of driving with less attentiveness or higher speed causing an increased risk of run-off-road crashes or similar accidents.

...

COVID-19 vaccination triggering Peltzman effect—An analysis of Peltzman effect reveals four main factors contributing to risk compensation, all of which appear to be present in the current COVID-19 pandemic....Risk compensation is more likely to occur if people have a ‘motivation’ to take on a risky behaviour...The final factor, the overall effectiveness of the intervention, in this case of the COVID-19 vaccine, is being increasingly recognised worldwide. This is highly desirable, increasing the likelihood of vaccine-acquired ‘herd immunity’. However, for the Peltzman effect, this high efficacy is likely to reduce adherence to other safety precautions. Vaccination drives in most European countries started in late December 2020, after which the rise of cases was seen. Thus, people’s complacency and a false sense of increased security after vaccination may have been the possible reasons for people to abandon protective and preventive behavioural strategies.

(Excerpt) Read more at pmj.bmj.com ...


TOPICS: Health/Medicine; Society
KEYWORDS: covid19; peltzmaneffect; vaccines
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1 posted on 07/24/2021 8:26:16 AM PDT by DoodleBob
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To: DoodleBob

“Risky behavior” — I got so tired of hearing that during the AIDs epidemic.

What is “risky behavior” today? Not wearing a porous condom over your mouth and nose?


2 posted on 07/24/2021 8:30:20 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom (“Criminal democrats kill babies. Do you think anything else is a problem for them?” ~ joma89)
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To: DoodleBob
(are the vaxxed feeling 'free' and fueling infection via risky behavior?)

Are they still using the PCR test and getting far too many false positives with it?

3 posted on 07/24/2021 8:31:39 AM PDT by Robert DeLong
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To: DoodleBob
He proposed that though people felt safer driving with a seat belt, it probably led to a phenomenon of driving with less attentiveness or higher speed causing an increased risk of run-off-road crashes or similar accidents.

That is the most stupid remark ever. He's saying that accidents (which would lead to increased injury and death) went UP after seat belts were introduced. Given the sheer stupidity of that claim, nothing else he says should be believed.


4 posted on 07/24/2021 8:33:07 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom (“Criminal democrats kill babies. Do you think anything else is a problem for them?” ~ joma89)
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To: Jane Long; cpdiii; Grampa Dave; metmom; mewzilla; logi_cal869
For your consideration.

Maybe it isn't solely the unvaxxed masses that are causing the case rises. Maybe people - who have and have NOT gotten the shots - are feeling "normal" again and have stopped washing hands frequently and with soap, are shaking hands as they go back to work, are no longer wiping down grocery carts, are going to movies, are going on vacation, are attending parties, and licking doorknobs etc.

In other words, because of the "seat belt" effect of vaccinations, people are effectively "driving faster" again.

This isn't to say we should go back to mandates. But it DOES suggest that you can't blame just one class of people.

5 posted on 07/24/2021 8:33:31 AM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: DoodleBob

or no one is making anti-bodies and the body is spending all it’s time fighting the vaccine


6 posted on 07/24/2021 8:33:46 AM PDT by butlerweave
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To: DoodleBob

Sweden is really looking like it handled this thing better more and more everyday


7 posted on 07/24/2021 8:35:20 AM PDT by Fai Mao (I don't think we have enough telephone poles.)
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To: DoodleBob

The people I know who have had one of the jabs (I use that word because I do not believe they meet the traditional definition of vaccines) think and act as if they have an impenetrable armor. The TV has told them they won’t get sick.


8 posted on 07/24/2021 8:38:59 AM PDT by LostInBayport (When there are more people riding in the cart than there are pulling it, the cart stops moving...)
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To: LostInBayport

The TV has told them they won’t get sick.


So has their poser Prez. 🙃


9 posted on 07/24/2021 8:41:27 AM PDT by Jane Long (America, Bless God....blessed be the Nation.)
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To: ProtectOurFreedom
Here is the longer-term trend. We could argue that the aging of the planet is begetting lower fatalities from this chart.

But a visual correlation doesn't prove causality. Perhaps your chart is, like this one, is measuring the aggregate and continuous enhancement in product safety, driver learning, better road markers, and other things like air bags as well as seat belts.


10 posted on 07/24/2021 8:43:20 AM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: DoodleBob

It’s OK when AIDS perverts do it.


11 posted on 07/24/2021 8:45:50 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("Communism is not love. Communism is a hammer which we use to crush the enemy." ― Mao Zedong)
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To: DoodleBob

No doubt all those things cumulatiively contributed to reduced fatality rates. A 24:1 reduction in 90 years is really astonishing.

There were many product safety improvements that contributed. Many (most?) were mandated by government, too. Sometimes (rarely) the government does a good job.


12 posted on 07/24/2021 8:46:48 AM PDT by ProtectOurFreedom (“Criminal democrats kill babies. Do you think anything else is a problem for them?” ~ joma89)
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To: LostInBayport
Along that line, I posted stores about brides and grooms requiring that guests be vaxxed.

I wonder, in practice, how many vaxxed wedding guests also felt invincible and, thus, didn't wash hands thoroughly after dancing then going to the loo, are drinking out of each other's glasses and taking drags in each other's cigarettes, hooking up, and licking doorknobs?

13 posted on 07/24/2021 8:48:43 AM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: Robert DeLong

The PCR test is being decertified by the CDC
https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert-Changes_CDC_RT-PCR_SARS-CoV-2_Testing_1.html

Talk about a goat rope


14 posted on 07/24/2021 8:53:56 AM PDT by silverleaf (In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act)
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To: DoodleBob

Alarm bells ring in my head when anyone draws the conclusion that the problem is too much freedom. It might be perfectly innocent but historically that isn’t the way to bet.


15 posted on 07/24/2021 8:57:00 AM PDT by Billthedrill
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To: ProtectOurFreedom
I was pressed for space.

I am no fan of lockdowns, masks etc.

One of the few benefits of the pandemic was that kids washed their hands with hot, soapy water for 20-30 seconds. Adults also did that, too. Simple hygiene was re-introduced to the world. I think the slathering of hand sanitizer and wiping down shopping carts was overkill but, on some level, it may have helped keep down pedestrian bacteria etc.

I bet you that many folks - vaxxed and unvaxxed - are back to 3-seconds of cold water after a lav visit. Such is life.

That's not exactly 'risky behavior' but it's the same sentiment.

I'm not going to legislate hygiene. But I bet many leftist would LOVE that.

My personal view is that the mandates were akin to a "risk elimination" mindset that is cost-prohibitive. In investing, there is a concept of risk-minimization whereby you lower your risk of loss or volatility by spreading your eggs across several baskets. However, one risk you cannot diversity away is the "systematic risk" or the risk inherent in the system...call it market risk or whatever, the basic reality is some baseline level of risk will ALWAYS exist, and you can't avoid it.

Laws that support, life, liberty, and property are right and proper. Some laws act as a deterrent and will stop people on the margin from doing bad things...this is akin to diversifying away the non-systematic risk.

However, at some baseline level, in a relatively free society of 330MM people, if this bug is with us forever, you cannot live under constant lockdown. We cannot eliminate the systematic risks in a free society. Some folks won't get the vax. Some folks won't wear masks. People won't wash hands and will make out with strangers at the bar.

That is life. We need to learn to deal with the fact that our neighbors will engage in "risky behavior" and our job is to manage our own lives and MYOB.

16 posted on 07/24/2021 9:08:02 AM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: DoodleBob

If you are vaxxed, how do you spread this virus? Oh yeah, this vaxx doesn’t prevent infection...


17 posted on 07/24/2021 9:08:47 AM PDT by exnavy (grow some thick skin, i do not care for whiners)
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To: DoodleBob

Nice use of a financial analogy.


18 posted on 07/24/2021 9:16:26 AM PDT by Ronaldus Magnus
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To: DoodleBob
There are some people who, after getting vaccinated, feel free to pack themselves into a cross-country party plane without wearing masks.

Dangerous Anti-Science Extremists Hold Super-Spreader Event In D.C.

19 posted on 07/24/2021 9:44:56 AM PDT by Bubba_Leroy (Dementia Joe is Not My President!)
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To: DoodleBob

Well now, we can’t have people “feeling free”, can we? No, we need them to be scared sh*tless and irrational. So much easier to subjugate them when they’re that way.


20 posted on 07/24/2021 10:01:49 AM PDT by Sicon ("All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others." - G. Orwell)
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