Posted on 07/30/2020 6:04:13 AM PDT by mikelets456
President Donald Trump trails Democrat Joe Biden in Pennsylvania 41% to 50%, according to a new poll.
The poll by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College also found that only 38% of respondents believe Trump is doing an excellent or good job — the same as in January.
But the poll also found only 24% of Pennsylvania respondents believe the United States is “headed in the right direction,” down from 38% in January.
“I’m not going to make an argument Trump can’t win, but he obviously has his work cut out for him,” F&M political scientist G. Terry Madonna said.
(Excerpt) Read more at pennlive.com ...
The poll by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College......
Shocker. America hating college lefties do a “poll”. Trump’s doomed now, finally, we got him now....
For comparison, other fantastic polls done by this group in the last presidential election:
https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/976089416682518756-f-m-poll-release-august-2016-1.pdf
https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/517148503881751921-f-m-poll-release-july-2016.pdf
https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/416992691463386772-f-m-poll-release-october-2016.pdf
(Trump won PA by less than 1%)
at 2m50s, Arroyo speaks about Zogby and another poll with great swing voter and Hispanic numbers for Trump. having trouble re-playing to see if he brought up Zogby poll earlier, so better to watch all:
VIDEO: 5m38s: 29 Jul: Fox News: Laura Ingraham: Media fawn over Joe Biden’s basement-free event
Seen and Unseen: Fox News contributor Raymond Arroyo expose the stories behind the headlines.
https://video.foxnews.com/v/6176473362001
I don’t believe that people are planning to “vote against him”. And I don’t see people enthusiastically lining up to vote for brain-dead Joe Biden.
I do however fear some Trump supporters getting fed-up and staying home.
I’m skeptical of this report, i.e., “lie”. Biden/Bernie plan to get rid of coal, and that’s what brought Trump through in 2016.
BLM gave Trump an opening with Hispanics. An ascendant organization which preaches that ONLY black lives matter meant that their lives do NOT matter. They also began to see Democrats giving away the store to blacks. And Trump was smart enough to exploit it (thanks, Goya!)
Again, this is why I quit doing polls. F&M was among the absolute WORST in 2016 up there with Quinnipiac.
Yet in last two weeks we have
1) Both Trafalgar and Baris, the only two pollsters getting PA (and the 2016 election right) say Trump is ahead Baris) by 2 or down 1 (Trafalgar), yet the head of Trafalgar yesterday said Trump would win PA.
2) We have had the guru of all leftist polling, Nate Cohn at 538 saying if the election were held today, Trump would win.
3) We have many, many sources more than just Trafalgar and Baris saying that the Trump voter this time around is almost impossible to count.
4) PA voter registration has seen Rs shave 100,000 of Ds since 2016.
5) And I haven’t even started on the incredibly high (for an R) black approval of Trump 16-26%, but as high as 41% in Rasmussen, or the astounding crash in student voting (down 1 to 1.5m due to no colleges being opened).
In short, the actual evidence we have (higher R registration), more difficulty polling Rs suggests just the opposite of F&M, that Trump will win.
PA needs to look to their Governor for the problems their state has.
“But the poll also found only 24% of Pennsylvania respondents believe the United States is “headed in the right direction,””
Well, can anyone say that logically? Nothing to do with Trump. The whole world is not headed in the right direction. The driver is the Chinese virus, now.
biased sample weighting
shy Trump voters and
registered vs. likely voters
....you can generally count on a 10 point swing from what's reported.
NPR Battleground Map: Hillary Clinton Solidifies Lead Against Donald Trump
August 16, 20165:05 AM ET
Heard on Morning Edition
Amen. I’m voting Trump, but would vote “wrong direction” because of BLM/ANTIFA marxism, and 1 of our 2 major parties support of same.
It will all depend on how high the enthusiasm of the “vote against Trump” voters is. The “vote for Biden” enthusiasm isn’t that great.
Excerpts from the Philly Inquirer commenting on 2016 polls:
The final F&M Poll of 2016, that picture developed too soon. F&M Poll director G. Terry Madonna now says that survey, which asked its last questions of respondents on Oct. 30, missed significant developments in the final week of the race.
...Madonna said ...The final poll also did not capture much of the public furor that erupted in the closing days of the election when FBI Director James Comey sent congressional leaders an Oct. 28 letter saying he had revived an investigation into Clinton's use of a private email server.
And Madonna says the poll did not register the intensity of Trump support in the state's small towns and rural areas or slippage in Clinton support in urban areas such as Philadelphia.
...Senator Santorum (PA) accused Madonna of being a "Democratic hack" who "has probably singularly gotten more polls wrong than any other person I know in the history of the state."
I think Rick Santorum pretty much sums up the leanings of Terry Madonna.
More propaganda and information warfare from a leftist, criminal media entity.
JoMa
Santorum is correct. Madonna is often on local talk radio in the Harrisburg area. He's a leftist joke, but even the conservative talk heads treat him with respect. That crap has to stop. He is simply one of the enemy that attempts to sway the outcome of elections through his work.
I respect people who strive to be at the top of their professions. Madonna is a pollster and so-called educator. He intentionally strives to deceive and his polls are rarely correct. That is not being at the top of his profession. It is not even professional. Under achievers like this should be made to dig ditches or starve.
110% of the population of Philadelphia will vote for Biden
Sleepy Joe basically pops up in PA makes a speech and goes back to Delaware that’s been his MO for months add to the fact his adds
are on tv every five minutes I can see Biden ahead but not 50-41 probably more 48-45 or so
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