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Corona Virus Daily thread #17
March 15th, 2020

Posted on 03/15/2020 9:49:28 AM PDT by Mariner

Thread #16 is below and it ran for two days...

http://freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3824270/posts?page=2051


TOPICS: Health/Medicine
KEYWORDS: chinavirus; chineseflu; coronavirus; covid19; cvlivethread; livethread; pandemic; testing
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To: Drago

The world leader in pharmaceutical research and one of the top rated healthcare systems on the planet, now has the 2nd highest infection rate per capita in the world. Switzerland will be a major indicator of how the very best healthcare systems in the world will handle COVID-19. I seriously doubt we will do as well as Switzerland, but I hope we can at least benefit from their suffering.


1,061 posted on 03/16/2020 2:22:21 AM PDT by ETCM
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To: abigkahuna

In your post the 2nd-hand account said “Seattle has 12 [ECMO] machines, which is less than what’s needed.”

Farther down in the twitter feed (I just signed on to twitter so not sure what I’m doing!) there was a response that said Evergreen Hospital (Kirkland) has 12 of those ECMO machines.

Evergreen is a great hospital, but not as large as some of the others in Bellevue and Seattle. I would think that Harbor View would have the most ECMO machines, but a quick search didn’t give me any results on their number.


1,062 posted on 03/16/2020 2:25:30 AM PDT by 21twelve (Ever Vigilant. Never Fearful.)
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To: 21twelve; All

here’s a handy little video explaining estimating cases

KHAN ACADEMY-12min video
Estimating actual COVID 19 cases (novel corona virus infections) in an area based on deaths

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCa0JXEwDEk

Things to remember:

Covid-19 has taken over 6,500 lives in approx. 3 months, between Dec 2019 and Mar 15, 2020, or about 2K a month

the 2019-20 flu season has taken approx. 20K lives, in approx. 6 months between Sep 2019 and Mar 2020, or about 3K a month (approx. 60% H1N1)

In 2014, H1N1 took 6,600 lives over approx. 5 months, between Oct and Feb, or about 1K per month.

In 2009, the H1N1 pandemic took between 8,870 and 18,300 lives in the US and up to 203K lives worldwide over approximately 8 months, or between 1-30K per month.

In 2003, Sars took 8,000 lives over approx. 9 months, between Nov 2002 and July 2003, or about 1K a month


1,063 posted on 03/16/2020 2:37:56 AM PDT by blueplum ( ("...this moment is your moment: it belongs to you... " President Donald J. Trump, Jan 20, 2017))
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To: blueplum

Thanks! I love Khan Academy - helped out a lot while trying to get the kids up to speed on things.

The one point I’ll make before looking at the video - all of those other events are finished. Covid-19 isn’t yet. Regardless - it doesn’t seem as bad as some of the others. So why the huge reaction to it by the Chinese - and now all of the other countries.

Sometimes I think it is a HUGE deal and will be terrible (and am treating it that way - heck - the effect it is having already are terrible). But then other times I wonder why China, and the rest of us are reacting to it so strongly when it doesn’t seem much worse than previous viruses?

I really hope that I am wrong and I (and mainly my wife) can look back on it and laugh. Along with some of the stuff that I did in preparation for Y2K (mostly my wife laughs at me about that - she isn’t now with regard to the virus.)


1,064 posted on 03/16/2020 2:50:24 AM PDT by 21twelve (Ever Vigilant. Never Fearful.)
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To: greeneyes

1,065 posted on 03/16/2020 3:27:53 AM PDT by greeneyes ( Moderation In Pursuit of Justice is NO Virtue--LET FREEDOM RING)
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To: 21twelve

I think the strong reaction is because whereas ‘normal’ flu is more an upper respiratory infection, and deaths are usually from a secondary bacterial invasion, COVID is a lower respiratory infection that goes straight for the 02 exchange system. COVID requires a higher level of PPE, and a larger team to provide care. Critical care means induced coma so the person can be intubated. COVID also seems to affect more organs than the lungs. The RO rate is higher than normal flu so it can spread faster. And some can spread the disease for a week or more while remaining asymptomatic.

Those with normal flu can generally take some antivirals, some OTC meds and go back to work. Not so with COVID, because live virus is shed in bodily fluids for some time. Fewer patients can be treated in a hospital because more sick that are sicker longer, take up more hospital resources (manpower and equipment) for a longer period of time ( a few days versus 20+ days = higher risk for cross-contamination to hcw’s).

And probably just as concerning is the age groups affected - what seemed dangerous mainly to 80+, has reduced down into the 20s and 30s, some otherwise healthy with no pre-existing. We’ve seen a few cases involving symptomatic children and also at least two births resulting in infected babies - the long-term effects as yet unknown. Everything about this virus is wacky. And because it’s a RNA virus, and harder to build a vaccine for, it’s much safer to just shut it down than let it burn thru the population and risk worse mutations. But that’s just my viewpoint of course.


1,066 posted on 03/16/2020 3:44:18 AM PDT by blueplum ( ("...this moment is your moment: it belongs to you... " President Donald J. Trump, Jan 20, 2017))
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To: blueplum

“ so this is the week (or two) that we watch everyone fall out that isn’t isolating. And once the non-isolators have self-selected for a Darwin experiment, we know which groups we can fraternize with - those that have been isolating for two weeks. Is that the gist of it?”

That’s how I read it, plus that right now is when the exponential infections begin ramping up, and those getting infected today will still have un unswamped healthcare system but those they infect will not.


1,067 posted on 03/16/2020 4:00:53 AM PDT by BusterDog
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To: BusterDog

In some areas, not all. The decisions should done by the local managers.


1,068 posted on 03/16/2020 4:04:07 AM PDT by bgill (Idiots. CDC site doesn't recommend wearing a mask to protect from COVID-19)
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To: blueplum

Thank you for this great comparison to the regular flu. It’s very helpful.


1,069 posted on 03/16/2020 4:09:59 AM PDT by Em and Brets Mum ("Lips that speak knowledge are a rare jewel." - Proverbs 20:15)
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To: metmom

Jeffers is the big time tv guest preacher there. The other day on FNC, he basically stated screening the service at home was inferior to being inside the church with sick people. His analogy was being in front of a fire place compared to watching a fire on screen but throughout the interview made it clear people should be inside the church building. He’s more worried about the collection plate than his congregation.


1,070 posted on 03/16/2020 4:17:30 AM PDT by bgill (Idiots. CDC site doesn't recommend wearing a mask to protect from COVID-19)
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To: Vermont Lt; BobL; Kartographer; JRandomFreeper; Tilted Irish Kilt; Jane Long; LilFarmer; ...
UPDATE: Sioux City, Heelan, other K-12 schools to close after Iowa governor recommends it due to coronavirus (3/15/20)

Siouxland movie theaters taking steps to prevent spread of coronavirus (3/15/20)

Nebraska officials identify first community spread of virus (3/15/20)

Some Sioux City churches cancel services, activities in response to coronavirus (3/15/20)

Northeast Nebraska schools, including Crofton, to resume classes this week (3/15/20)

Pro Runner’s Viral Coronavirus Tweet Reminds Us to Practice Compassion Toward Older Adults (3/14/20)

Athletes, Coaches React to the Last-Minute Cancellation of the NCAA Indoor Championships (3/14/20)

Everything You Need to Know About Spitting During the Coronavirus Outbreak (3/13/20)

1,071 posted on 03/16/2020 4:19:38 AM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Wu Flu! [when I feel heavy metal] Wu Flu! [when I'm pins and I'm needles] Wu Flu!)
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To: bgill

“His analogy was being in front of a fire place compared to watching a fire on screen...”

Good analogy. Chances of getting burned watching a fire on a screen is zero. ;)


1,072 posted on 03/16/2020 4:22:35 AM PDT by 21twelve (Ever Vigilant. Never Fearful.)
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To: All
The case for shuttering the economy to battle coronavirus (3/15/20)
1,073 posted on 03/16/2020 4:27:38 AM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Wu Flu! [when I feel heavy metal] Wu Flu! [when I'm pins and I'm needles] Wu Flu!)
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To: blueplum

Oh, that’s funny. The guy is trying to buy brownie points from God and the DA’s office. He’s scared. Thou shalt not price gouge your neighbor.


1,074 posted on 03/16/2020 4:32:06 AM PDT by bgill (Idiots. CDC site doesn't recommend wearing a mask to protect from COVID-19)
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To: Trump Girl Kit Cat

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1239243622916259841/photo/1


1,075 posted on 03/16/2020 4:34:49 AM PDT by 9YearLurker
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To: Mariner
If anyone knows...

If you've had the virus and recover, are you immune?
Is there a test for that yet? Showing that?

I think this is the flu I've already had this year.
1,076 posted on 03/16/2020 4:36:43 AM PDT by novemberslady
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To: mrsmith

Seems too well written to be an “off the cuff” observation. Almost seems contrived.


1,077 posted on 03/16/2020 4:40:45 AM PDT by Solson (Trump 2020!)
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To: All
Gov't virus testing will prioritize medical staff, elderly (3/15/20)
1,078 posted on 03/16/2020 4:42:21 AM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks (Wu Flu! [when I feel heavy metal] Wu Flu! [when I'm pins and I'm needles] Wu Flu!)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

Re: 1073 - maybe.

My take - probably tens of millions will be out of work that were not before the shutdown, as businesses fail.

The economic suffering will be substantial. On the level of the Great Depression - maybe.


1,079 posted on 03/16/2020 4:47:40 AM PDT by Fury
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To: greeneyes

Absolutely. One of the lowest maintenance crops I know of.

And certainly worth the garden space.

Since mine has always been limited, I always tended to plant things that make it very cost effective.

No point in planting carrots and onion, which I never had luck with anyways, when they are so cheap in the stores.

Garlic and scallions, OTOH, are way too expensive, take up very little garden space, and are a great deal with you consider the cost of the seeds to the cost of buying the item in the store.


1,080 posted on 03/16/2020 4:53:05 AM PDT by metmom (...fixing our eyes on Jesus, the Author and Perfecter of our faith...)
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