here’s a handy little video explaining estimating cases
KHAN ACADEMY-12min video
Estimating actual COVID 19 cases (novel corona virus infections) in an area based on deaths
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCa0JXEwDEk
Things to remember:
Covid-19 has taken over 6,500 lives in approx. 3 months, between Dec 2019 and Mar 15, 2020, or about 2K a month
the 2019-20 flu season has taken approx. 20K lives, in approx. 6 months between Sep 2019 and Mar 2020, or about 3K a month (approx. 60% H1N1)
In 2014, H1N1 took 6,600 lives over approx. 5 months, between Oct and Feb, or about 1K per month.
In 2009, the H1N1 pandemic took between 8,870 and 18,300 lives in the US and up to 203K lives worldwide over approximately 8 months, or between 1-30K per month.
In 2003, Sars took 8,000 lives over approx. 9 months, between Nov 2002 and July 2003, or about 1K a month
Thanks! I love Khan Academy - helped out a lot while trying to get the kids up to speed on things.
The one point I’ll make before looking at the video - all of those other events are finished. Covid-19 isn’t yet. Regardless - it doesn’t seem as bad as some of the others. So why the huge reaction to it by the Chinese - and now all of the other countries.
Sometimes I think it is a HUGE deal and will be terrible (and am treating it that way - heck - the effect it is having already are terrible). But then other times I wonder why China, and the rest of us are reacting to it so strongly when it doesn’t seem much worse than previous viruses?
I really hope that I am wrong and I (and mainly my wife) can look back on it and laugh. Along with some of the stuff that I did in preparation for Y2K (mostly my wife laughs at me about that - she isn’t now with regard to the virus.)