Posted on 03/02/2020 2:22:09 PM PST by topher
Hubei Province, China (where the city of Wuhan is) has 2803 deaths with 67,103 confirmed cases.
That is about 42 deaths per 1000 cases of COV-19 virus. So Iran has the highest death rate...
However, Iran has 66 deaths with only 1501 cases. This is about 44 deaths per 1000 REPORTED cases.
Italy only has 52 deaths with 2036 reported cases. This is about 26 deaths per 1000 cases.
There may be more cases in the Seattle area than have been reported. There are 6 deaths there, but only 18 reported cases. 5 deaths in King County and 1 death in Snohomish County. 14 reported cases in King County and 4 cases in Snohomish County.
There may be more cases in the Seattle area than reported. Too few cases for 'statistical analysis' - my opinion. People getting the disease with severe underlying health problems may explain this...
Our domestic enemies are angry at the Market’s performance today.
None of them. They all sucked.
Trump said we’ve got to lick this virus.
Iran said we’ll lick it good.
“Iran’s ignorance of COVID-19 is going to get a lot of people seriously ill there.”
I suspect the ignorant Islamic fundamentalists who are licking monuments and drinking mullah spit won’t be missed.
What I find interesting is that the highest death rates are in three countries where hygiene is terrible. Public urination and open sewers in all those places.
Who knows about reliability of Iran testing, it could be MERS coming back.[/wild spec.]
Are you basically saying it is meaningless to keep track of how many runs a baseball team scores each inning...all that matters is the final score?
What topher and others dividing by number infected-so-far are doing is roughly the equivalent of tracking runs after 1/2 hour of play and calculating that as if it had already been a full 9-inning game to get the total number of runs in a playoff series where the number of games isn’t even fixed.
Deaths/sick-so-far becomes lower the faster the disease spreads regardless of the fatality rate. So that formula means that the MORE infectious the disease, the lower the calculated impact.
.
I understand that many calculations require context. But surely, you’re not saying we shouldn’t do ANY calcs?
Some good can come of this if people realize that we have borders for a reason.
The flu is tracked and yes it is different.
Mortality rates for people who present symptoms of the common flu are typically around .1% to .4%
COVID-19 mortality for people who present symptoms is currently running:
China - 4.1%
Iran - 4.4%
Italy - 2.5%
Which means 10% death rate BEFORE containment and medical procedures that maybe specific to this virus.
Nobody gets this.
Been saying it since late January.
By my calcs on that basis, the Chinese numbers were around a 7% - 8% range for a goodly while. Now that there are Deaths / Confirmed (Deaths + Recoveries), the answer seems to be the same: 7%.
Maybe healthier people and better health systems like Italy (?!) can get you down to 4%. And in the U.S., maybe we can grind that down to 2%. That’s still 20 times more deadly than the flu if you’re optimistic.
So, the question now is: What will the transmission rate be like? If half of people get it, oh my, we’re in for a rough ride. If 10% of people get it, it’ll be nasty, and we’ll get over it well enough. Hummmm….. Who knows? I’m just now done getting ready here in Tacoma, 30 miles south of the dead people in King County, WA.
And then there’s the panic. I’ve planned, and I’m prepared, and I’m done. I’m going to rebuild a long overdue fence. But what about people who don’t have enough food? What about supply chains to grocery stores? I live 10 blocks from EBT card central, where everyone eats Cheetos and gubmint cheese. Man, if they run out of food, there could be a Rodney King sorta thing right here.
Gotta bolt hole I just resupplied today. Wonder if I can get there in a pinch.
Would love to see the source for that.
I don’t doubt you, just want to see their methodology for myself.
For example, almost all stats so far have used the wrong denominator. (Deaths + Recoveries) is the correct denominator, since this is a long-recovery-time virus. Mostly, the denominator has been greatly inflated by people whose disease has not yet run its full course.
“putting all of your economic eggs into the China Basket is a bad idea.”
Ah, diversification.
Stocks aren’t a bad idea. Holding only ONE stock is a bad idea.
In an average flu year 5% to 20% of the US population get the flu. Source: webmd.com https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/flu-statistics
IF this virus spreads ONLY as much of the flu in it's lowest year (5%) that would mean that 18,500,000 in the US alone will get the virus. That means at 5% death rate 925,000 will die from it.
But that's not the real danger. The real danger is that it put from 15% to 20% in the hospital with severe to critical symptoms Those numbers will obliterate our healthcare system. Then we'll go up into the 7% to 10% death rate as there won't be sufficient medical care for those 15% to 20%.
Was talking to my 82 y.o. Mom who lives in an Assisted Living Facility in WA. She’s going to move out of it and live in “the apartments” with her 92 y.o. boyfriend for the duration. I sent them to Costco yesterday, so they have a couple month’s food on hand.
Today, we have no idea what is going to happen. This could be a big nothing burger. Or, it could be a medical and societal catastrophe. Or something in between. It is unknowable.
So, we just get ready, wait and see! Gonna be one helluva ride. Prolly just nothing. But you have to be ready. Whoooeeee!!!!
Hey Doug;
There is pattern in the U.S. Cor.virus mortality numbers Fox reported today.
https://q13fox.com/2020/03/02/king-county-reports-14-confirmed-coronavirus-cases-including-5-deaths/
“These are the new cases, according to the department:
A male in his 50s, hospitalized at Highline Hospital. No known exposures.
A male in his 70s, a resident of LifeCare, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The man had underlying health conditions, and died 3/1/20
A female in her 70s, a resident of LifeCare, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The woman had underlying health conditions, and died 3/1/20
A female in her 80s, a resident of LifeCare, was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth
In addition, a woman in her 80s, who was already reported as in critical condition at Evergreen, has died. She died on 3/1/20”
“10 other cases, already reported earlier by Public Health, include:
A female in her 80s, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. This person has now died, and is reported as such above.
A female in her 90s, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The woman has underlying health conditions, and is in critical condition
A male in his 70s, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth in Kirkland. The man has underlying health conditions, and is in critical condition
A male in his 70s was hospitalized at EvergreenHealth. He had underlying health conditions and died on 2/29/20. A man in his 60s, hospitalized at Valley Medical Center in Renton.
A man in 60s, hospitalized at Virginia Mason Medical Center.
A woman in her 50s, who had traveled to South Korea; recovering at home
A woman in her 70s, who was a resident of LifeCare in Kirkland, hospitalized at EvergreenHealth
A woman in her 40s, employed by LifeCare, who is hospitalized at Overlake Medical Center
A man in his 50s, who was hospitalized and died at EvergreenHealth”
Mostly the elderly. I wonder how many smoked?
I think this is a serious disease, but the U.S. is better prepared for it than most other countries. I don’t know if anyone should try to project outcomes using China as a basis. China and the U.S. have very different public hygiene practices.
(Lets continue the wall and close that border!)
Not surprising....like 50% of the population is over 40 or something like that. Plus it might get skewed to the old end because nursing homes are concentrated old people with communal meals and young people in close contact carrying disease back and forth.
I hope we can handle it.
The chief ‘advisor’ to the Ayatollah Assahola died from it...
If the head honcho goes, this could spur on the rebel alliance.
The US is even higher. We’ve had 6 dead with a little over 100 cases. That’s roughly 60 per thousand!
Close contact in buses, subways, and trains, 3rd world hygiene, third world health care. The USA is like these countries in one way—homeless camps and migrating homeless.
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