Posted on 06/02/2016 9:33:22 AM PDT by OneVike
As a hardcore Cruz supporter, I still wish he was our nominee, but he's not. I have said for over a year that regardless of who the nominee is, the Republicans will win the election come November. Now I agree that anything can change over the long hot Summer, but for now it looks like Trump will not just win, but he will will probably win in a landslide we have not seen since Renaldo Maximus won in 1980 & 84.
As usual, when a market economy candidate replaces a socialist Big Government commie in the White House, the economy improves drastically. That being said, even Reagan did not face what Trump is facing will he moves into 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Many things destroyed by Obama will take years to repair, if they ever are completely.
However, the economy will improve greatly I believe. So my question to the panel of Freepers in the know, "What stocks will take off, and which ones will tank"?
We all know that there are many company's that have been targeted by Obama that have struggled, if not shutdown. Along with the big corporations that have taken financial hits, there are millions of smaller companies that have been destroyed which has in effect created huge opportunities for anyone willing invest once the economy starts to improve.
Like the early "80"s when Reagan improved things, so too do I see a recovery. It may not be as great, but it will be a recovery just the same. Or, it could be as great if not greater, but it all depends upon how Trump attacks the biggest drag on any possible recovery, the healthcare industry taken over by Obama.
So, what stocks will take off under a Trump administration, and which will take a hit? By the way, I watch the money shows on cable news, and often read what Zero Hedge for financial information, but I want to know haw my fellow Freepers see things.
Last time I asked this question was in late 2008 when Obama won, and while the advice was mixed, I did do very well on gold.
You post three of the areas I figured would be good, but as for real estate? I doubt that because I can see Trump ending Obama’s continuation of Clinton’s housing for the poor by fiat that got us in trouble in the first place. So I see real estate slowing down until it becomes stable on normal market practices.
I agree with that actually, but companies built on reality will bounce back quickly, if they get effected at all in the first place.
KBR and Bechtel. Best positioned for the large infrastructure projects. Maybe Hochtief (owns Turner) out of Germany. Cintra and several other Spanish players might also be on your ‘look at’ list.
Large building construction real estate???
Pipeline, oil field services, storage and transfer
Credit card debt services -
If Trump is able to get the tax reforms he hinted at on the campaign trail, People will immediately do what they have done - expand their cost of living to match their new income level.
And since most live beyond their means - credit card balances will increase.
Trump, being a real estate developer, will likely want to find ways to energize the real estate development. New construction projects create a lot of good paying jobs quickly and has the widest reach when those projects are in both the public and private sector.
Trump said we are going to rebuild the strength of our armed forces and pay down our national debt. Both would be monumental tasks if handled one at a time. But, handling both while our armed forces are actively engaged in battle would be impossible. Initially, look for military spending for upgrades and replacements. If that happens, a lot of military surplus should be hitting the civilian marketplace.
Trump said he wants to improve foreign trade through new negotiations. I can’t imagine anyone agreeing to renegotiate a contract that benefits them the most. He will have to inspire them to ask for a new deal. That would have to come from changes that cause their good deal to sour. There are a lot of countries hurting. I can imagine some trade deals that cause old trading partners to demand a redo. We could simply say oops, my bad and let the renegotiation begin.
In the end, I think Trump is looking out for his children and his legacy. I’m not saying he’s driven by a huge ego, but it might be his huge ego. Either way, Go Trump.
Both parties should quit complaining about Trump and ask why people are supporting “not them”.
Well people like me, much more trader than investor but able to put on the investor hat never ever ever ever ever allow something to fall 10% under our cost (and the real number is 7-8%)....with the exception of some options, and sometimes, even more than sometimes, those go to zero.
The twin reasons: First is the math. We know that it takes a 100% gain to make up for a 50% loss. It takes a 33% gain to make up for a 25% loss. It takes a 67% gain to make up for a 40% loss. However it only takes an 11% gain to make for a 10% loss. This is immutable math. But we are not, supposedly, in the market to break even. You will read that philosophy in IBD as well.
Second reason: the key to investing is to avoid big losses. That is Buffett’s #1, #2, and #3 rules, if you think I am being too “tradey” for you. Almost everything else takes care of itself. If you never allow more than a single digit loss, it never takes more than a single digit gain to make it up. Again, this is inarguable, immutable math.
People have been saying “rates can’t go lower” for 3+ years and they have been obliterated.
When you listen to “what people say” you’ll be wrong massively more than right.
You can buy TBT here @ 35.6 and place a 50-cent stop loss on it, 1.5%, which is a reasonably big fat move. TLT, its opposite, is +1.07 here (biggish but not enormous) and TBT is down .63 And you can do that SIX TIMES before you reach a 10% loss.
When I take a small loss on a trade, sometimes those are absolutely my best trades. It means I recognize I was wrong, I recognized it early, I did not fall in love, I did not go to stubborn, and I stopped it from whacking me.
Next time. Me: every time.
Netflix. They just signed a yuuge deal with Disney for exclusive rights to show their movies starting in September. Also, it is on a pretty big dip right now. Not to mention they have “Oscillating Fan For Your Home” available on streaming.
Back then the overwhelming market sentiment was negative so the best move ended up being short sales. Officially the word then was that we needed to extend the '03 tax cuts becuase higher taxes restricted econ growth, that a $10T debt was 'unpatriotic', and that marriage was between one man and one woman. Things changed, and the best investments there after were quick loan retailers and job retraining companies.
We don't know and can't know yet what's going to happen w/ Trump because he's got no political track record and everything could very well go either way. We may get reg cut backs like they '80s which would mean decades of investment growth, or we may get big time tariffs like those of 1930 that were followed by stocks losing 7/8ths of their value.
Let's see.
Great news. Thanks for sharing.
Peabody looks good! Up 10% so far today,and nowhere to go but up. BTUUQ is the symbol.
As a Comcast subscriber, what in the world is “Oscillating Fan For Your Home”?
Sorry, I meant Netflix subscriber.
LOL. I could use another one. I just spent Sunday in my 130 degree attic fixing my A/C this past weekend, and realized I could use another good fan.
LOL
Yes, the thing that scares me the most about trumps rhetoric is his protectionism talk.
Investing in more stocks could be the worst move, but I need to be optimistic. I have but 5 years to retirement.
Last I read they were filing for chapter 11.
So whats going on?
Invest now in high-end Canadian real estate, just north of the border - and then sell it to the millionaire hollywood lefties when the exodus begins.
LOL, if only.
LOL
Income's the big worry in retirement planning but I'm finding that income --as important as it my be-- is not the most important key. Seems that for folks that have already retired what becomes even more important is friendships: Silent Killer Among U.S. Retirees, & How to Avoid It.
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