Posted on 04/21/2016 8:20:11 AM PDT by Responsibility2nd
Before we begin debunking, let’s start with the obvious: It was undoubtedly a good night for Trump and unsurprisingly so, as NR’s Henry Olsen predicted on election eve.
Trump looks to have taken 90 delegates and 60 percent of the vote, somewhat better than projections, although most election-eve forecasts had him taking at least 85 or so of New York’s 95 delegates (Olsen had him pegged for 87).
But despite his victory, Trump got only a very modest bump from New York last night. And despite the breathless TV and print commentary from our New York–centered media, he still faces huge obstacles if he wants to get a sufficient number of delegates to be nominated on the first ballot. And if he is not nominated on the first ballot, given Cruz’s wildly successful delegate strategy, it is unlikely he will be nominated at all.
In fact, according to the analysis of the widely-respected 538.com, Trump actually fell just short of the number of delegates he needed in New York to put himself on the path to the magic number of 1,237.
And, though he should have a good week next week when Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island vote, he will need a New York–level performance, not just a victory, if he wants to substantially improve his nomination odds.
New York and the five states voting next Tuesday are all part of the Democrats’ “blue wall.” Democrats have won all of these states in each of the last six elections. Only one of these states (Pennsylvania) has given more than 45 percent of its vote to the GOP candidate in any of the last six elections. New York and Rhode Island have never even given 40 percent to GOP candidates during this time.
(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...
Input from The National Review.
NR is in the tank against Trump.
But, if on Tuesday the 26th Trump picks up another 100 delegates (and I believe he will, if not more), then he is going to be closing in on 950+ delegates.
That will leave him about 280 short...with still 500 more to go. I believe he will get the 53% of those he needs.
He has the only path to the nomination before the convention, and at this stage, short of a major fumble, I believe he is on track to get it.
This is why I, as a Cruz supporter, wrote the following:
My Open Letter to Ted Cruz after the NY Primary
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3422900/posts
Although Ted now has no path to the nomination prior to the convention, Ted does have the power to unite the party and drive the stake through the GOPe’s heart.
I hope he will.
No wonder Trump’s afraid to debate Cruz.
Can you imagine the hit he’d take if Cruz asked him, “So, Donald, should men use men’s bathrooms and women use women’s bathrooms?”
If Trump can’t get that right, how badly would he mangle the rest of it?
“The exits showed that Kasich dominated among the #NeverTrump crowd in New York. Among the 24 percent of voters who said they would not vote for Trump if he were the GOP nominee, Kasich won a staggering 72 percent of them, far better than he had ever previously done with this demographic.”
Running against 16 people, Trump as acquired 48.85% of the awarded delegates right now. That is pretty amazing.
Here are his numbers. Notice how they change over the next week.
date
delegates awarded
his delegate count
his percentage of delegates obtained of those awarded
his percentage of delegates he must have
delegates he still needs
percentage of remaining delegates he must obtain
04/19: 1798, 0846, 48.85% 68.39% 391 58.01%
04/26: 1970, 0981, 51.17% 79.30% 256 51.00%
Notice how his delegates obtained percentage falls in line with his delegates needed percentage.
It moves from 48.85% / 58.01% to 51.17% / 51.00%.
After 04/26 Trump will need to get 51.00% of the remaining delegates.
Up until 04/26 he will have gotten 51.17% of awarded delegates.
If he continues to perform as he has, he will get 1237.
Trump won 61% of the whole pie.
Kasich won 72% of a slice of the pie.
24% vs 61%. Poor Kasich...
Even poorer Cruz...
Don’t these idiots hope it. Trump cannot be stopped for the 1237 or more.
Trump for President.
Wow, just wow. Donald Trump is dead in the water. He’s out of it. Finished. Kaput. Destroyed. Contested Convention here we come. Ted Cruz is the ONLY candidate who will win because of his vaunted ground game in deciding states like .... Utah. How did I not see this before? Oh, wait, yes that’s it. I’m part of a cult because I support Trump. /sarc
Hilarious!
No, what they are doing is a “circle mental self gratification.” Then again the result is no more substantial.
Can you show me the documentation of his plan to raise taxes on the wealthy as you state? Thanks.
Sort of like a Cruzealot ... only sane (as the primary results continue to roll in.)
The Baghdad Bob of the 2016 Republican Primary Season...
Whistling past the graveyard
Oh my gosh, I love, love this picture. I had this with the same man throughout history from the Trojan Horse to the Barbarians at the Gate. Too funny.
How in the world do “so called Blue” states have any
input in republican primaries? That may matter in the
general but doesn’t mean a thing right now.
Trump has these establishment flaks running scared,
from both parties too.
So now you love Jesus and America?
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