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Can Trump [no] or Cruz [yes] Beat Clinton? The Data Explained
Newsweek ^ | 3/8/16 | Mark Payton and Ole J. Forsberg

Posted on 03/08/2016 10:49:26 AM PST by ConservingFreedom

[...]

Matchup
Republican wins
Democratic wins
Margin of error
Cruz vs. Clinton 50.6 49.4 1.4
[...]
Trump vs. Clinton 46.9 53.1 1.1

[...]

According to our multilevel model, the expected number of electoral votes won by Cruz against Clinton is only 256. [...] According to the model, the expected number of electoral votes won by Trump against Clinton is 236, which is 34 fewer than the 270 needed to win the election. [...]

(Excerpt) Read more at newsweek.com ...


TOPICS: Cheese, Moose, Sister
KEYWORDS: fingersinears; leftist; moosebitnoob; newsweak; propaganda; shootthemessenger; trash
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To: ConservingFreedom
Just win today Trump!

 photo Cc44X35UsAAa1Lz.jpg

21 posted on 03/08/2016 10:56:50 AM PST by rineaux
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To: ConservingFreedom

Lose with Cruz!


22 posted on 03/08/2016 10:57:11 AM PST by Mollypitcher1 (I have not yet begun to fight....John Paul Jones)
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To: ConservingFreedom

I don’t think Cruz’s advantage is real. Most voters don’t yet know how connected he is to the globalist elite agenda.


23 posted on 03/08/2016 10:57:25 AM PST by grania
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To: ConservingFreedom

Because Newsweek is only concerned that the Republicans nominate the best candidate to beat Hillary Clinton... /s


24 posted on 03/08/2016 10:59:05 AM PST by MNGal
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To: ConservingFreedom

This is the same kind of data that had Carter +20 against Reagan before he was chosen as nominee.

Will we ever learn?


25 posted on 03/08/2016 10:59:35 AM PST by Kenny (RED)
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To: ConservingFreedom

Whoever bought Newsweek for $1 got robbed


26 posted on 03/08/2016 11:00:05 AM PST by Donglalinger
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To: ConservingFreedom
Relax! It's early. Hillary is the incumbent.

27 posted on 03/08/2016 11:00:58 AM PST by SubMareener (Save us from Quarterly Freepathons! Become a MONTHLY DONOR!)
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To: DoughtyOne

We have the first real chance to elect a principled-conservative in the White-house since 1984 and he has the ability to defeat the socialists and the Washington cartel. What holds back the reform of the nation back to founding principles is that the nation is fixated on the coarse celebrity with his last minute conversion and evolving principles.


28 posted on 03/08/2016 11:02:09 AM PST by DaveyB (Live free or die!)
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To: ConservingFreedom

LOL Newsweek LOL


29 posted on 03/08/2016 11:02:42 AM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: GrandJediMasterYoda

Yes. It will be like a fight between a bulldozer and a gnat.

Scarborough MSM Won’t Mention Bill Clinton Jeffrey Epstein Connection—But Donald Trump Will
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nCP4EmblCkA


30 posted on 03/08/2016 11:03:40 AM PST by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marilyn vos Savant)
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To: grania
While I have basically been challenging the Trump bashers, the last week, let me return to defend Cruz on this. He does not appear to me to be even remotely connected to a globalist elite agenda. We need both the Trump & Cruz supporters, and that means treating each with respect. Support For Trump & Cruz.

I, as many here, have been very unhappy with the nastiness of the fire-fight between the two Conservatives.

You are of course correct in disregarding this purely fanciful analysis. The key variables for this fall are simply not in play yet.

31 posted on 03/08/2016 11:03:57 AM PST by Ohioan
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To: scooby321

swing states

VA Cruz came third and never won a single county
FL Cruz is third
OH Cruz is third
CO don’t know but I cannot see the demographics going for Cruz.

Cruz is screwed. No wonder he keeps parroting for Rubio to get out and vote for him instead of others.


32 posted on 03/08/2016 11:04:12 AM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: napscoordinator

swing states

VA Cruz came third and never won a single county
FL Cruz is third
OH Cruz is third
CO don’t know but I cannot see the demographics going for Cruz.

Cruz is screwed. No wonder he keeps parroting for Rubio to get out and vote for him instead of others.


33 posted on 03/08/2016 11:04:50 AM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: Mollypitcher1

Cruz is screwed


34 posted on 03/08/2016 11:05:09 AM PST by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: ConservingFreedom

Headline a lil bias is it?


35 posted on 03/08/2016 11:10:01 AM PST by Java4Jay (The evils of government are directly proportional to the tolerance of the people.)
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To: DaveyB

And yet it makes complete sense to you that they focus wrath on the man you think won’t dismantle them.

What do they know about Cruz that you don’t?

There has to be some reason they favor him over Trump.

This isn’t all that hard.

You can figure this out.


36 posted on 03/08/2016 11:12:16 AM PST by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: DaveyB

“and he has the ability to defeat the socialists and the Washington cartel. “

Save us the campaign ad, and key us in on HOW he is going to do anything at this point!!


37 posted on 03/08/2016 11:14:13 AM PST by VanDeKoik
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To: grania

Because he is NOT connected to the globalist elite agenda.


38 posted on 03/08/2016 11:14:43 AM PST by buckeye49
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To: ConservingFreedom

When Trump and Clinton are the official candidates or now?


39 posted on 03/08/2016 11:15:21 AM PST by showme_the_Glory ((ILLEGAL: prohibited by law. ALIEN: Owing political allegiance to another country or government))
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To: napscoordinator
You don’t win the south in the primaries means you are cooked.

Huh?

40 posted on 03/08/2016 11:19:06 AM PST by Fundamentally Fair (Is that just what you have written on your "What Trump Means to Me" chalikboard?)
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