Posted on 08/10/2014 12:46:23 AM PDT by Smokin' Joe
I have spent a little time compiling links to threads about the Ebola outbreak in the interest of having all the links in one thread for future reference.
Please add links to new threads and articles of interest as the situation develops.
Thank You all for you participation.
Dr. Bruce Bueler, winner of the 2011 Nobel in medicine, is saying what we've been saying: we simply don't know a lot about Ebola and its transmission.
Christie's controversial Ebola quarantine now embraced by Nobel Prize-winning doctor
I'm afraid current "science" just doesn't work like old time science. Nowadays cooling is caused by warming, a magic form of thermal energy escapes all detection until 2000 meters beneath the surface of the ocean, and Ebola must behave as the CDC demands. Anyone who doesn't believe those statements is, by the definitions of "new science," an anti-science nut.
Wanna bet they include temperature scans?
105 being monitored for Ebola in Pa.
The Flu, TB and Now Ebola: A Rare Legal Remedy Returns (and a fake med worker)
Two people in North Dakota being monitored for Ebola symptoms
But they won't say where in ND...
2016 hopefuls catch Ebola flak
Released Ebola Nurse Kaci Hickox Works For CDC…Her Lawyer Is A White House Visitor
U.S. troops from Africa isolated in Italy [11 Troops]
University of Maryland Medical Center patient tests negative for Ebola
Kaci Hickox Won't Follow Maine Ebola Quarantine Rule,
Jeb Bush: Obama handling of Ebola ‘incompetent’
Christie's controversial Ebola quarantine now embraced by Nobel Prize-winning doctor
I think there were reports very early in this story that the doc lied to authorities about his movements but this confirms it.
That's because they are tolerated. Given an ebola or even possible ebola reservoir in any such population, they would be gone in a few weeks. Apart from a few PETA protestors there will be unanimous support for that action.
This one provides a critical look at the gaping holes in our governments knowledge of ebola, asking many of the same questions that have been raised on FR.
Source:
http://singtomeohmuse.com/viewtopic.php?t=5725&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=4170&sid=2a089aa8af2f8b12666d3ac9f2526703
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https://www.fbo.gov/index?s=opportunity&mode=form&id=4644486179fe1388a4c395d0d0527b5e&tab=core&_cview=0
DEFENSE THREAT REDUCTION AGENCY
BROAD AGENCY ANNOUNCEMENT
HDTRA1-15-EBOLA-BAA
CHEMICAL / BIOLOGICAL TECHNOLOGIES DEPARTMENT
FY2015 – FY2016 Program Build
24 OCTOBER 2014
excrept
2.2.4. Ebola Characterization
The means by which Ebola virus is maintained in nature remains unclear. One reservoir of this zoonotic pathogen is believed to be in bats, but it is unknown what other natural reservoirs exist. Distinct Ebola viral sequences have been identified in infected but healthy mice and shrews. (Pourrut et al., 2005) indicating there may be other unknown reservoirs. A better understanding of Ebola persistence under a variety of environmental conditions may help us identify other possible reservoirs and hosts to research reservoirs and other modes of transmission. While current science indicates the disease can only be transmitted by contact with contaminated body fluids, it remains unclear if other transmission modes are feasible. Filoviruses are able to infect via the respiratory route and are lethal at very low doses in experimental animal models, however the infectious dose is unknown. There is minimal information on how well filoviruses survive within aerosolized particles, and in certain media like the biofilm of sewage systems. Preliminary studies indicate that Ebola is aerostable in an enclosed controlled system in the dark and can survive for long periods in different liquid media and can also be recovered from plastic and glass surfaces at low temperatures for over 3 weeks (Piercy, et al., 2010).
2.2.4.1. Topic: CBS-01, Determination and Understanding of Quantitative Infectious Dose
This topic explores the physical, biological and molecular interactions of Ebola and related filoviruses to determine which of these interactions play a key role in the determination and understanding of quantitative infectious dose. The focus is on proposed efforts that aid in determining how many viable virions are required to cause human illness. Efforts that combine both experimental and computational techniques to explore molecular and physiological interactions and biochemical pathways
2.2.4.2. Topic: CBS-02, Persistence and decay or survival rates in the Environment
The research should generate knowledge on Ebola persistence in the environment and knowledge to help predict potential mutations or changes to the viron. Studies should determine persistence and decay or survival rates of Ebola virus and other filoviruses in the environment. Research areas may include (but are not limited to):
* Assessment under a range of controlled environmental conditions, including, but not limited to the dark, simulated solar radiation, and ranges of temperature and humidity.
* Identification of environmental factors that contribute to persistence
* Assessing persistence of Ebola on fomites/ surfaces after aerosolization
* Assessing persistence in other media such as water, sewage biofilm, and other priority surfaces
2.2.4.3. Topic: CBS-03, Molecular Determinants for Persistence
This topic focuses on understanding the molecular determinants that govern the ecology and environmental persistence of filoviruses. The research should focus on the molecular identities and mechanisms that promote environmental persistence of filoviruses. Research areas may include (but are not limited to):
* Genomic and proteomic analyses to investigate the regulation of genes and proteins upon exposure to varying environmental conditions
* Use of phylogenetics to identify potential genes involved in environmental persistence
* Elucidation of mechanisms that contribute to environmental persistence
* Metagenomic analysis of potential reservoir environments
* Elucidation of mechanisms and environmental conditions that promote mutations in animal reservoirs
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Summarized nicely in Comments by Pixie PFIF:
So the Defense Threat Reduction Agency's Chemical and Biological Defense Program is soliciting research/solutions for the following problems which it does not completely understand about Ebola Zaire including:
• how well do filoviruses survive within aerosolized particles?
• is an aerosol mode of transmission is feasible? (Filoviruses are able to infect via the respiratory tract)
• what is an effective infectious dose? how many viable virons are needed to cause human illness?
• what is the persistence of Ebola on fomites/ surfaces after aerosolization?
• what is the persistence of Ebola in water and sewage?
• is there a disinfecting technology that will prove effective against viral contamination either deposited as an aerosol or heavy contaminated combined with body fluids (e.g. blood, vomit, feces)
? So we don't know much about the virus' natural reservoirs, we don't know much about its aerosolization, we don't know much about how easily it infects or what level of infection causes illness in humans, we don't know how long its fomites or aerosolized particles persist, we don't know how long it survives in water and sewage, and we don't have complete knowledge of the best ways to disinfect either Ebola aerosols or areas heavily contaminated with bodily fluids.
We don't know much, and yet tomorrow President Obama, flanked by Frieden, Fauci, and Klain, will no doubt assure the country in dulcet tones that the Science is Sound and that anyone who does not believe that is a rube, purely a rube. If they as citizens do not have faith that Frieden and Fauci and the rest of the talking heads have it all in hand, have it ALL under control, through SCIENCE!!!, they are just unwashed ignoramuses. There will be a lot of noses in the air. (Wonder if nurse Kaci Hickox will make an appearance as Exhibit A?).
This will be unfurling even as DTRA, just days before, requested research and proposals meant to answer some pretty significant Ebola questions. And it wants those questions answered and those solutions found in time to be able to implement them during this unprecedented outbreak.
So DTRA says they don't know, but they're asking a lot of questions so that they will know, eventually.
The ideologues who are pushing social philosophy over science say they Know Science, they take its name in vain, and laugh at anyone who looks at them skeptically, like the bunch of medieval conjurers they are.
I'll throw in with DTRA. I prefer it when someone says they don't know if they don't know. That means they'll be careful and cautious. And I like careful and cautious when we're talking about Ebola.
I hope this phenomenon is indicative of Ebola burning out but how many times have we seen reports like this that turn out to be either blatantly wrong or due to unseen factors like failure to report? I really hope it’s true but I’m skeptical
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Just so, and here’s a follow up to justify rational skepticism.
It’s following the pattern of previous epidemics, as the disease progress, the information acquires SPOX noise and suppression of data and lack of data.
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Top UN Ebola official: new cases poorly tracked
BY RODNEY MUHUMUZA ASSOCIATED PRESS
10/29/2014 3:47 AM 10/29/2014 3:47 AM
http://www.kansascity.com/living/health-fitness/article3413487.html
KAMPALA, UGANDA — Authorities are having trouble figuring out how many more people are getting Ebola in Liberia and Sierra Leone and where the hot spots are in those countries, harming efforts to get control of the raging, deadly outbreak, the U.N.’s top Ebola official in West Africa said Tuesday.
“The challenge is good information, because information helps tell us where the disease is, how it’s spreading and where we need to target our resources,” Anthony Banbury told The Associated Press by phone from the Ghanaian capital of Accra, where the U.N. Mission for Ebola Emergency Response, or UNMEER, is based.
Health experts say the key to stopping Ebola is breaking the chain of transmission by tracing and isolating those who have had contact with Ebola patients or victims. Health care workers can’t do that if they don’t know where new cases are emerging.
“And unfortunately, we don’t have good data from a lot of areas. We don’t know exactly what is happening,” said Banbury, the chief of UNMEER.
Banbury, who visited the three most affected countries last week, said it was “heartbreaking” to see families torn apart by Ebola as they struggle to care for sick loves ones while also hoping to avoid infection. He said he is hoping for a new approach in Liberia as the U.N. and its partners work to improve the capacity of communities to safely bury victims.
Over the past week, Banbury met with the presidents of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, where the vast majority of the more than 10,000 Ebola cases have occurred, the U.N. said.
Meanwhile, the president of the World Bank, Jim Yong Kim, said the three countries need at least 5,000 more health workers to effectively fight the epidemic.
Kim said Tuesday that he is worried about where those health workers can be found given the widespread fear of Ebola. Quarantining health workers returning to their home countries — as some U.S. states are doing — could also hurt recruitment efforts. The World Bank president spoke alongside U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and African Union Chairwoman Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, where the AU is headquartered.
As more countries close their borders with or severely restrict travel from the affected countries, Liberian President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf pleaded Tuesday with the world to not turn its back on those suffering.
“We’d just like the international community to continue to see this as a global threat, that stigmatization, exclusion, restriction is not the appropriate response to this,” she said.
She spoke alongside Samantha Power, the U.S. ambassador to the U.N. who is also touring the worst-hit countries this week. Power reiterated that the best way to keep Americans safe is to help the West African countries fight the disease.
“We’re not just looking to bend the curve, we’re looking to end the curve,” she added.
Although Western governments and aid groups have stepped up Ebola aid in recent months, the U.N. says more support is needed. The U.N.’s target is to quickly isolate 70 percent of Ebola cases and to achieve a similar percentage for safe Ebola burials.
“They are extremely ambitious (goals), given the geographical spread of the disease, the numbers of people infected, the very poor information on exactly where those infected are and what the transmission patterns are,” Banbury said. “The three things we need the most are people, supplies and money. The most critical right now are people, health workers in particular, trained health care workers . but also people who can manage these Ebola treatment facilities.”
Dlamini-Zuma said African Union states have pledged to send more than 2,000 health care workers to West Africa. She did not say when the workers would arrive.
— [NYT] U.S. Man Flew to Africa and Back to deliberately bring U.S. Ebola —
[Sometimes a different headline helps clear the cobwebs...]
[Actual headline ...]
The Flu, TB and Now Ebola: A Rare Legal Remedy Returns
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3220611/posts
NYT: ... [senior American officials] described how agencies had urgently investigated a man who wrote a bizarre post on social media that he was going to try and contract Ebola in Africa and then return to the United States. According to senior American officials, the man traveled to the West African country of Guinea in the past month in the hopes of working alongside humanitarian assistance organizations treating patients. The organizations quickly determined that the man had no medical expertise and was acting...
... “It’s not that we were trying to prevent him from returning, we were just ensuring that he didn’t pose a health risk to other travelers,” said a senior American official. “When we determined that he didn’t pose a risk we had no issue with him flying home.” [snip]
[So he flew back to U.S. The man is reportedly deeply troubled. I have no idea what his religion is — seriously I don’t.]
Dr Bueler’s sane voice is lost in the noise generated by Obama’s lap dog media.
And oh boy, do some of the comments reveal the success of Obama and the NEA in spreading ignorance.
WH: Army Ebola policy not needed for civilians
Kids, Don't Try This At Home! (caring for an Ebola patient)
Nurse Kaci Hickox 'Will Go to Court' Over Maine Ebola Quarantine Rule
Obama will solve the Ebola problem just like he solved every other problem! :(
Ebola Docs and Nurses Care About Africans, Don’t Care About Americans
Australia's Ebola Travel Ban Criticized By UN, Liberia, Sierra Leone
A big jump in reported Ebola cases is likely due to previous under-reporting, WHO says
By CHRISTINE MAI-DUC
OCTOBER 29, 2014 8:29 AM
http://www.latimes.com/world/africa/la-fg-who-ebola-numbers-20141029-story.html
The World Health Organization says the number of reported Ebola cases has surpassed 13,700, a jump of more than 30% since the last numbers were released four days ago.
Dr. Bruce Aylward, assistant director-general of the WHO, said the big jump in cases is likely due to previous under-reporting.
As of today, there have been 13,703 reported cases of Ebola, the organization tweeted, with 13,676 of those in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, the three most affected countries in this outbreak.
The fatality rate in those countries has remained consistently around 70%, Aylward said.
Speaking to reporters in Geneva, Aylward said there is some indication that safe burials and education efforts in Liberia are improving, but he cautioned against assuming that Ebola was coming under control there or in any of the three countries most affected by the disease.
He noted some encouraging signs, including the opening of the first community care center in Port Loko, Sierra Leone, a smaller facility designed to isolate and provide basic care to potential Ebola patients.
Very noticeable is the lack of mortality numbers.
Using the 13,700 x 70% roughly = 7000 or so deaths. If that’s actually what’s buried in the mumbo-jumbo, a huge jump from 5k in the last report.
Somebody please tell me I’m wrong.
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Scouter, how does this square with your projection?
See the following:
1,671 posted on Friday, September 05, 2014 2:38:25 PM by RinaseaofDs
Slightly reformatted for clarity —
May 1 = 180 cases (actual reported was 243),
June 1 = 375 cases,
July 1 = 750 cases,
Aug 1 = 1500 cases,
Sept 1 = 3000, (projection from here)
Oct 1 = 6000,
Nov 1 = 12,000,
Dec 1 = 24,000.
Now, the WHO is saying 100,000 by Dec 1, right? They believe their numbers are off by a factor of 4 with respect to ACTUAL open cases.
4 * 24,000 = 96,000 or so cases.
I realize it doesn’t match the pattern we are seeing in terms of WHO reported cases, but it does in one important way:
May 1 = 375 cases,
July 1 = 750 cases and
Aug 1 = 1500 cases.
We crossed 3000 reported open cases sooner than Sep 1, but not significantly. If we double again Oct 1, then it fits the data WHO is reporting. Essentially, we are doubling cases every 28 to 30 days, give or take a day. Mostly, now, we are taking days - it’s doubling sooner than when the first of the next month arrives.
Where the math gets scary is in 2015.
Using WHO data:
Dec 1 = 24,000 cases (no 4 x fudge factor - confirmed cases).
Jan 1 = 48K
Feb 1 = 96K
Mar 1 = 200K
Apr 1 = 400K
May 1 = 800K
Jun 1 = 1.6M
Jul 1 = 3.2M
Aug 1 = 6.4M
Sep 1 = 12.8M
Next year, by Labor day, 13 million open cases, reported on the way they are now by WHO.
Say WHO is right and they are off by a factor of 2. That means 25M cases open on Sept 1, 2015. Off by 4? 50 million infected by start of school 2015.
This assumes: no vaccine, no serum, and a clearly crappy field test for the disease like we have today.
If the tests get better, this number will increase. Right now the tests are very poor at actually diagnosing Ebola Guinea. That’s why WHO is guestimating they are off by either 2 or 4.
So, let’s go into 2015 - 2016, conservatively, as we are wont to do:
Jan 1, 2016 = 192M cases. By April you are at a billion cases.
We are significantly over RinaseaofDs’ 1 November 2014 projection about four to five days early in terms of Who data.
There will be no significant change in Africa in terms of Ebola treatment unit (ETU) space until Feb 2015.
Given that 1/2 of the current ETU space in Liberia is unused due to cultural burial practice issues. Additional ETU space is irrelevant.
Nothing short of a full military occupation with roughly five infantry divisions in the three effected Ebola countries with forcible Ebola clearance will make any difference, and the decision to do that had to be made last June.
There may be around 250,000 doses of Ebola vaccine of doubtful effectively in May 2015.
There will be over 800K Ebola infected at WHO data reporting rates, that may in fact represent only 20% of the actual total (4 million) on that date of whom at least 35% (1.4 million worse case) will be dead.
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