See the following:
1,671 posted on Friday, September 05, 2014 2:38:25 PM by RinaseaofDs
Slightly reformatted for clarity —
May 1 = 180 cases (actual reported was 243),
June 1 = 375 cases,
July 1 = 750 cases,
Aug 1 = 1500 cases,
Sept 1 = 3000, (projection from here)
Oct 1 = 6000,
Nov 1 = 12,000,
Dec 1 = 24,000.
Now, the WHO is saying 100,000 by Dec 1, right? They believe their numbers are off by a factor of 4 with respect to ACTUAL open cases.
4 * 24,000 = 96,000 or so cases.
I realize it doesnt match the pattern we are seeing in terms of WHO reported cases, but it does in one important way:
May 1 = 375 cases,
July 1 = 750 cases and
Aug 1 = 1500 cases.
We crossed 3000 reported open cases sooner than Sep 1, but not significantly. If we double again Oct 1, then it fits the data WHO is reporting. Essentially, we are doubling cases every 28 to 30 days, give or take a day. Mostly, now, we are taking days - its doubling sooner than when the first of the next month arrives.
Where the math gets scary is in 2015.
Using WHO data:
Dec 1 = 24,000 cases (no 4 x fudge factor - confirmed cases).
Jan 1 = 48K
Feb 1 = 96K
Mar 1 = 200K
Apr 1 = 400K
May 1 = 800K
Jun 1 = 1.6M
Jul 1 = 3.2M
Aug 1 = 6.4M
Sep 1 = 12.8M
Next year, by Labor day, 13 million open cases, reported on the way they are now by WHO.
Say WHO is right and they are off by a factor of 2. That means 25M cases open on Sept 1, 2015. Off by 4? 50 million infected by start of school 2015.
This assumes: no vaccine, no serum, and a clearly crappy field test for the disease like we have today.
If the tests get better, this number will increase. Right now the tests are very poor at actually diagnosing Ebola Guinea. Thats why WHO is guestimating they are off by either 2 or 4.
So, lets go into 2015 - 2016, conservatively, as we are wont to do:
Jan 1, 2016 = 192M cases. By April you are at a billion cases.
We are significantly over RinaseaofDs’ 1 November 2014 projection about four to five days early in terms of Who data.
There will be no significant change in Africa in terms of Ebola treatment unit (ETU) space until Feb 2015.
Given that 1/2 of the current ETU space in Liberia is unused due to cultural burial practice issues. Additional ETU space is irrelevant.
Nothing short of a full military occupation with roughly five infantry divisions in the three effected Ebola countries with forcible Ebola clearance will make any difference, and the decision to do that had to be made last June.
There may be around 250,000 doses of Ebola vaccine of doubtful effectively in May 2015.
There will be over 800K Ebola infected at WHO data reporting rates, that may in fact represent only 20% of the actual total (4 million) on that date of whom at least 35% (1.4 million worse case) will be dead.
It sucks being right.
As an example, a story from yesterday projected 12 MILLION units of vaccine being available from an Iowa company by March 31, 2015. See:
http://news.sciencemag.org/health/2014/10/ebola-vaccine-underdog
Also see this month-old article about vaccine production of 50 million doses in four months after a 4-12 week ramp-up period:
http://www.xconomy.com/raleigh-durham/2014/09/30/zmapp-ebola-drug-production-set-for-texas-possibly-north-carolina/
I have read some concerns on-line about facile reliance upon vaccines saving the day, but those all assume reliance on a single vaccine. I repeat, I know of five under development or already in production using at least three quite different methods. I expect at least one of those will be effective in protecting people from contracting Ebola.
A single .32 pistol round probably won't stop a small bear or large cougar, but a dozen .33 shotgun pellets in a single 12-gauge shotgun round very likely will. "Quantity has a quality all its own."
My current projections are for 1,152,017 cases and 707,203 deaths by May 31, 2015.
I'll try to post my next full round of projections shortly after October's final numbers are reported.
Jim, when you were engaged in the “Winter” scenarios, what was the time lapse between threat identification and finally taking the correct albeit late response? That is if you are not bound by an NDA.
How does that compare to current events?
I was just watching an interview with Joanne Liu, President of MSF, and I was struck by the “official” case numbers at that time. She talked about 4700 cases, and this was just on September 22. The numbers have nearly tripled since then.
Of course, she also said the WHO numbers represented merely 20% of actual cases. Very sobering.
Thank you for the ping!