Ebola Surveillance Thread

Free Republic Threads ^ | August 10, 2014 | Legion

[Smokin' Joe]

I have spent a little time compiling links to threads about the Ebola outbreak in the interest of having all the links in one thread for future reference.

Please add links to new threads and articles of interest as the situation develops.

Thank You all for you participation.

[SE Mom]

If this is true- as it seems to be - it’s alarming. I remember you mentioned other HCW’s in your area may be infected and the quiet surrounding it.

At the hospital where I work we had someone tested (within last 4 days) and there was a real concern til the lab tests came back negative. It was not reported in any local news. There are competing interests here. The citizens right to be aware of actual threats to safety and the legitimate desire of officials to keep people from panic. Less than honest poitical agendas weave themselves in and it becomes quite murky.

I must say I’m startled by the sudden silence - it’s as if this didn’t really happen and it seems unlikely - though possible - that Duncan.infected only two.

It’s odd and really unsettling.

[ladyjane]

Those Harvard public health researchers would never get another grant if they didn’t agree with the party line.

Fortunately Harvard itself is restricting travel to and from W Africa.

[Whenifhow]

Brussels Airport Will Screen Baggage Coming From Ebola Areas
http://www.businessinsider.com.au/r-brussels-airport-to-screen-baggage-from-ebola-infected-areas-2014-10

[PA Engineer]

Chicago Hospitals Monitoring 2 Sick Passengers From Liberia, CDC Not Testing For Ebola

[PghBaldy]

He did NOT say there was a “new” case. He probably was referring to Thomas Duncan.

[Whenifhow]

I agree - most likely he referred to Thomas Duncan....
he said 3 total cases - “only one in addition to the two nurses”.

[Dark Wing]

Look very closely at the botton graph from the New England Journal of Medicine article mentioned above.

See link:

http://www.nejm.org/action/showImage?doi=10.1056%2FNEJMoa1411100&iid=f03

There is a cluster of infections in the infection graph at the 36 to 43 day marks in the infection time line.

No wonder this infection keeps going, 21 days is not enough.

The Ebola quarentine has to be at least 43 days and likely 45 to be sure after contact with the Ebola infected.

Given the number of people exposed to Duncan and vincent, we are in the 50-50 chance range for at least one more case in the Duncan cluster popping up in the “cleared from quarentine” people.

[Arthur Wildfire! March]

More Ebola Test Reports Despite AP Blackout [vanity research]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3218171/posts?page=6#6

[Covenantor]

From your referenced graphs not only are infections occurring past the 21 day window but the rate of infections occurring from day one are greater than implied in earlier CDC/WHO literature, if I read them correctly.

This seems consistent with the field lab work which discovered higher and earlier viral loading than earlier strains.

Seems to me that the first triage or arrival examination point under current CDC “guide lines” will be inadequate with actual EVD victims.

First responders to 911 calls may be blind sided in instances where the only presenting symptom is fever assuming that EVD has very low probability of transmission.

Maybe that 911 operators need to ask travel history and then call out a response team and vehicles dedicated to potential EVD victims.
I imagine that in the absence trauma these ambulances wouldn’t need all the std do all kit. Let KISS principal apply. The longer wait at the early stage I think would not seriously affect the patient.

Residence can be quarantined by immediate follow on team.

Stripped down vehicles would be more easily and effectively decontaminated.

These would then be directed external EVD triage points.

Texas pointed to the vulnerability of hospitals that could quickly make them reservoirs of EVD much like in Africa. Just damn stupid to place such health resources at risk.

[Covenantor]

Thanks for the link.

Delay? Maybe OSHA in fact.

PFIF excerpt mentions that new CDC “guidelines” altered MSP protocol involving spray down sluicing of PPEs because of danger of slippery hospital floors. CDC solution, use medical bleach wipes instead.

They get stupider by the day.

They might be waiting for OSHA to define safety yellow floor lines and corridor lanes.

[Black Agnes]

Bleach wipes.

Oh boy!

Because with all the money it costs to treat just ONE secondary infected medical worker, portable hazmat showers are totally out of the question economically /s.

[Covenantor]

Thanks for the info.

Back in the early seventies there was a film called “The Hellstrom Chronicles” about insects, the overwhelming sheer biomass. All the ugly and deadly ones presented in closeup views on the big screen. Left me stomping, swatting every damn insect I saw for the next month.

Yet the smaller viruse are far more deadly. Shivers.

[Jim Noble]

“More Ebola test reports”

I’d take this with a grain of salt.

I’m screening calls from medical practices for “possible Ebola”, and most of them are ridiculous. In places that are not screening, or screening poorly, these “my Aunt met somebody last month who was in Kenya” are getting on local TV news or in the paper.

The danger is real, and very serious, but most of what makes the five o’clock news is pure crap.

[Dark Wing]

Covenantor,

My concerns here is three fold and largely personal.

1. The entire Duncan infection cluster is still less than 42 days from exposure.

2. There were well over 100 individuals on the flawed CDC/Dallas public health watch list, to include the Dallas Country Judge Jenkins.

3. If any of this infection cluster pops off between now and the middle of November, we are looking at the quarantine shut down of Dallas local area government as well as a significant portion of the DFW area medical system.

The odds at 1-in-20 popping symptoms later than 21 days with over 100 local exposures are that we may see up to 4 or 5 active Ebola infections with G-d knows how many more people quarantined.

Not to mention real public panic at the demonstrated public institution incompetence. And by real panic I mean mass school system closures for 43 days by school officials trying to avoid tar and feathers or hot lead depending on the extend of the “Echo outbreak” getting at local kids.

I and my family are avoiding the public as much possible based on that, but there really is no telling, as many of the people on the Frontier airline flights are scattered across North Texas to include children in four schools in Rockwall county in addition to the four announced schools in DISD.

[Covenantor]

Understood your immediate concerns.

Just pointing out that from that one hundred tertiary infection, If I’ve read your posted charts correctly, there exists the threat of transmission before overt symptoms send the secondaries to seek help. Then we have phantom carriers.

Let’s hope complacency doesn’t take hold among the secondaries.

[Covenantor]

Here’s PFIF pixie’s highlights:

ATLANTA — Oct 20, 2014, 9:06 PM ET
By The Associated Press
http://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/cdc-releases-revised-ebola-gear-guidelines-26330679

Health care workers should be completely covered — no skin exposed — while caring for Ebola patients, according to revised guidelines issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The government agency tightened its guidance after two Dallas nurses became infected with the virus while caring for an Ebola patient.

Highlights of the revised guidelines:

— Use face shield, gown or coverall, boot cover and double gloves

— Wear hood to completely cover the head and neck

— Use respirator, not goggles

— Put on waterproof apron if patient is vomiting or has diarrhea

— Designate area for putting on and taking off gear

— Have trained monitor supervise the putting on and removal of gear

— Use disinfectant wipes on contaminated gear before removing

— Disinfect gloved hands between steps while taking off gear

— Conduct repeated training for using protective gear

::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

On the same page or previous one is the quote justifying the wipes instead of the bleach spraydown.

What a confederation of dunces.

[Whenifhow]

Don’t know if this is accurate - shows transport cases and suspected cases.

Ebola map
http://www.liveebolamap.com/

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

Dark Wing:"There is a cluster of infections in the infection graph at the 36 to 43 day marks in the infection time line.
No wonder this infection keeps going, 21 days is not enough.
The Ebola quarentine has to be at least 43 days and likely 45 to be sure after contact with the Ebola infected."

You saw the repsonse from the CDC upon the two HCW being positive for Ebola - they blamed the nurses.
Question: How long did it take for them to modify their protocols, without formally acknowledging the the failed protocols?
ANSWER : Two and a half 2 1/2 weeks (17 days)to modify even when faced with media criticism and public concern.
They had to deal with two HCW patients who are then known to be active Ebola victims staring them in the face, and the press was on them 'like white on rice'. CDC Analysis : No victim = No problem.
I imagine it would take months for them to modify the length of Quarantine, even though almost everyone acknowledges that this is a different viral critter
than the one they have been studying since 1976.

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

Oh , and I failed to note the most obvious reason for reluctance to modify the length of Quarantine
It isn't what the administration wants !
The administration wants "OPEN BORDERS" - and that would be politically treacherous !!

[Shelayne]

Bleach wipes.

*facepalm*