Ebola Surveillance Thread

Free Republic Threads ^ | August 10, 2014 | Legion

[Smokin' Joe]

I have spent a little time compiling links to threads about the Ebola outbreak in the interest of having all the links in one thread for future reference.

Please add links to new threads and articles of interest as the situation develops.

Thank You all for you participation.

[editor-surveyor]

>> Book published in 1999 about man arriving in Dallas with Ebola to start pandemic. <<

.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3217108/posts?page=1

[Smokin' Joe]

EBOLA: Obama fast-tracks Ebola-zone visas to U.S.

Ebola czar thinks global warming causes increased tornadoes and hurricanes

Judicial Watch: Obama Plans to Transfer Ebola-infected Foreigners to U.S. for Treatment

US Army Handbook From 2011 Confirms Airborne Ebola Cases

General: US Troops Who Contract Ebola Will Be Quarantined in Liberia

116 being monitored in Ohio for Ebola symptoms

FDA halts Dallas hospital from using Ebola-screening device

Mutant Ebola warning:LeadingU.S.scientist warns deadlyvirus is already changing to become more contagious...

NIH official firm in opposition to travel ban

A Conversation With Dr. Ben Carson About Ebola

Nurse Amber Vinson May Have Had Worse Case of Ebola: Airline

WHO Says It Won't Discuss Ebola Mistakes Document (Abbott & Costello:Who Is On First?)

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If you want to live, ignore the CDC

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Fauci tries to calm US after missteps on Ebola, amid concerns Americans have lost faith

2001 Video Of Obama’s Ebola Czar

101st Airborne Won’t Get Full Protective Hazmat Suits for Ebola Mission in West Africa

Washington’s Action Plan for Ebola: Squalid Waste and Pork-Barrel Spending by the CDC and NIH

Ebola: Politics, Failure, And Opportunism

Ebola outbreak: How Nigeria is beating the killer virus

[Smokin' Joe]

DART: Woman ill at train station not on Ebola list

[Vortex]

With all the various timelines, I wanted to get a image of where we are, so here's my attempt at that.

I limited this to just confirmed cases and key exposure events.

I think I've got the dates correct, but please feel free to correct me or make a suggestion. I also added a current day potential exposure (at the bottom) of the chart.

RISK TIMELINE
		OCTOBER																															NOVEMBER																														DECEMBER
Person	Event	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29
Dr. Kent Brantly	Released (08/21)	41	42
Nancy Writebol	Released (08/21)	41	42
Anon WHO Dr	Transferred to Emery (09/09)	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42
Dr. Rick Sacra	Released (09/25)	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42
Thomas Duncan	Arrives @ DFW (09/20)	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42
Thomas Duncan	Symptomatic (09/24)	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42
Thomas Duncan	First Trip to ER (09/25)	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42
Thomas Duncan	Admitted to Hospital (09/28)	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42
Thomas Duncan	Died (10/08)									1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42
Thomas Duncan	Cremated (10/09)										1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42
Ashuka Mukpo	Transferred to Nebraska (10/05)						1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42
Nina Pham	Symptomatic (10/10)											1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42
Nina Pham	Transferred to Bethesda (10/16)																	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42
Amber Vinson	Symptomatic? Flight DFW/CLE (10/10)											1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42
Amber Vinson	Flight CLE/DFW (10/13)														1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42
Amber Vinson	Admitted to Hospital (10/14)															1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42
Amber Vinson	Transferred to Emory (10/15)																1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42
Anyone	Exposed Today (10/19)																				1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32	33	34	35	36	37	38	39	40	41	42

[Smokin' Joe]

Book published in 1999 about man arriving in Dallas with Ebola to start pandemic.

[ElenaM]

Great visual, thanks!

I’d add the sexual transmission numbers for males, however. Ebola is found in semen at minimum 60 days after the patient tests negative for the virus after recovering symptomatically.

[ElenaM]

Spanish nurse tests clear of virus in first post-symtpomatic test.

Spanish Ebola nurse appears clear of disease, says government

Tests on Teresa Romero, 44, hospitalized earlier this month with a high fever and treated in an isolation unit in a specially-adapted hospital in central Madrid, gave a negative result for the virus on Sunday, it said in a statement.

Usually patients must take another test within 72 hours to be given the all-clear from the disease, which has killed thousands in West Africa. The hospital will take another test in a few hours' time, the government statement said.

Romero was treated with a drip of human serum containing antibodies from Ebola sufferers who had survived the disease and other drugs which a government spokeswoman declined to name. One was the experimental anti-viral medicine favipiravir, El Mundo newspaper said.

[Covenantor]

It occurs to me to wonder once again where and what the natural resevoir of EVD is.

How did this particular strain get to West Africa which has never had an Ebola outbreak that was ever detected?

Have any of you encountered any new guesses from researchers?

The time span and scattered earlier outbreaks suggests it might not lie totally in bats or other mammals. If it’s not carried in mammals for a period of time then any guesses as to where this tiny monster lurks and thrives?

And if fruit bats are a natural carrier, how do they acquire it?

Where was it before 1976?

If viruses can’t travel or even move on their own what sustains it between being acquired by bats or whatever?

The burn out of the previous outbreaks was not due to human efforts but because of a natural break in the chain of contact and IIRC the reduced virulence of x generations of the transmitted virus.

I guess I assumed that the current transmission vector via diarrhea was because of virus contaminated blood in the feces but now, maybe not.

One very ugly mystery.

[greeneyes]

Do we know the date that Duncan carried the pregnant Ebola patient that died? I think that would be useful info.

[greeneyes]

While there has been investigations into the question What is the reservoir since 1976, the answer is still a mystery.

As to the current outbreak, IIRC, someone who was exposed and developed the disease, traveled to a heavily populated area which also have International travel.

At one point the fight turned the curve, people thought they were out of the woods, dismantled a lot of the temporary treatment centers, and in started spreading again.
I also read about a number of false negatives, where people tested negative for Ebola and were sent home, only to return a few days later after exposing more people and returning later even sicker.

When contact is not sufficiently restricted, the virus can spread exponentially, and quickly get out of hand. Old fashioned quarantines work. No one in or out. With no space in hospitals, that should mean the old fashioned method of marking the houses, and making people quarantine in place.

That is clearly not happening either in the countries where it is out of hand, and in preventing its spread to the USA - there’s no quarantine from the countries involved to stop entry from the USA.

Earlier outbreaks were in rather isolated villages, quarantines were easily enforced, and eventually the contagion was brought to a halt.

[Shelayne]

It was September 15.

[Shelayne]

That is a great chart! Thank you so much!

[Tennessee Nana]

BookMark

Thankyouverymuch !!!!

[Shelayne]

I forgot to post a source for Septhember 15 date.

here is one—

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/02/us/after-ebola-case-in-dallas-health-officials-seek-those-who-had-contact-with-patient.html?_r=0

[SE Mom]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrandonToddFOX4/status/523961415212601345

Per Fox- Amber Vinson’s parents have asked that he condition not be made public.

[SE Mom]

*her

[greeneyes]

No problem. Thanks for the date. He was right on the mark for when symptoms develop from exposure.

[Shelayne]

Speculation has been that her infection was more advanced than initially thought. It sounds as if she may not be doing well. Her family must be so worried.

I wonder if she is getting any blood serum or experimental drugs.

[ElenaM]

That is my impression as well. If she were conscious/capable of communicating, she would be making those decisions, not her parents.

[ElenaM]

I've not seen anything new regarding the host. The candidates are so numerous and varied, it's hard to even speculate.

I am intrigued by the canine link. Although it's only one study, it seems to me that a dog scavenging for food (they don't feed Blue Buffalo or anything else in that part of the world) and consuming an infected animal, then returning to the village and interacting with humans is a more likely scenario than many I've heard. I've read speculation that this outbreak began when the two year old index case supposedly ate a fruit that had been dropped by an infected bat. Which is more likely: a two year old picking up that one bit of infected fruit among many uninfected fruits or a two year old playing with a dog that had eaten an infected animal? I think the dog is the more likely scenario but don't know anything definitive.

Others speculate that the mother splashed the two year old with bat blood while butchering. We'll never know what happened because the mother, sister and grandmother are all dead of Ebola.

The dog intermediary is speculation, of course.

Where was it before 1976?

Quite likely, Ebola has been infecting people in isolated central African villages for much longer than we know. The discovery came about due to Belgians who brought the outside world in to investigate.

There is still doubt about where any virus originated. I've seen scientists speculate that viruses are bits of genetic material shed by humans/animals that just happen to have the right combination of genes to result in replication when engulfed by cells. No one really knows.

There is much we don't know about the microscopic world.