Up...!!!
Posted on 01/28/2011 3:01:22 PM PST by MindBender26
As many of you know, am old network TV newsie. Just tapped former proven source, retired VERY senior CIA officer. No Hq paper-pusher type, he is the real deal, a highly successful very senior ME field operator. Retired as ES-4.
From an intel assesment stanspoint, he is a proven source, with access to information, extensive field work in the area, no reason to lie and has always given good data in past.
His assessment (in shorthand:)
1. If Egypt falls, disaster for US. Put succinctly; "the horse we bet all our life savings on may be about to drop dead in the backstretch."
2. If Egypt gmvt falls, radical Muslim Brotherhood will be the new power, totally.
3. If Egypt falls, Jordan and Saudi are in trouble, but not necessarily gone. Even Syria is not safe.
4. Although Muslim Brotherhood would take over, the cause of revolt is not religion but the lack of jobs, horrible standard of living. Saudi and Jordan citizens have somewhat better conditions, so might be saved.
5. Egyptian Army is the absolute key. If Army stays local, Mubarak may be safe. If they falter, he is absolute toast.
6. Problem is, Army does not like Mubarak. They loved Sadat, he was one of them, but they do not like Hosni.
7. If Egypt falls, biggest winners are Iran and Russia. Iran becomes big kid on block. Russia desperately needs crude oil prices to go up to help economy. They prosper at $90 barrel crude. This could create $220, $250 a barrel crude oil prices
8. Big loser? Surprisingly not Israel. Just more enemies... who all know Israel will take war nuc if necessary to save self.... but due to US aid, Egyptian Army has great American equipment.
9. Biggest loser #2; Western Europe
10. Biggest loser #1; USA. Oil prices cripple economy. Even worse, word in every diplomatic circle becomes "See what happens to America's friends."
Bottom line; possible/probable disaster for US
My first post. Yes we have enough oil reserves to last generations.
What if we are so smart and thinking years ahead by draining all the oil from the Middle East first ? I know it sound implausible but maybe, just maybe this plan spans many administrations and is “above the pay grade” of all Presidents ? A little turmoil now and we hold all the cards later ? Nah, we aren’t that smart.
_______somehow Sarah Palin’s fault.
I know - and Piper, too. Dang those strong conservative women . . .
The normally very mild mannered and quiet lady at the bank today let lose with her frustration. So did a guy at a store to whom I complained about the know-nothing-don’t-care kid who worked there.
I hope I am right in seeing that the people who pay the taxes, even a little bit, are getting really pissed... and scared. I tell them at every opportunity that they are having their dream taken from them every day and that all they can look forward to is work until they can’t. When their work is over they will be expected to DIE.
Most of the people who have paid in to SS and Medicare for 30 years and maxed out every quarter have put in nearly $400,000 CASH with no interest accumulated. I and my employers have “contributed” $225,000 to SS and $134,000 to Medicare for a total of $359,000. If you are like me, you shouldn’t expect to ever see a DIME of this money.
Note your SS statement. It says: “Your estimated benefits are based on current law. Congress has made changes to the law in the past and can do so at any time. The law governing benefit amount may change because, by 2037, the payroll taxes collected will be enough to pay only about 76 percent of scheduled benefits.”
Lie down, roll over, LIKE IT!
even funnier ;o)
The "Fox All Stars" tonight included Charles Krauthammer, a black woman named Nia-Malika something, and Steve Hayes. Krauthammer and Nia both seemed to think Mubarak would hold on for some time, but Hayes thought he would be gone within days.
If Mubarak can still rely on the army, maybe a strong Tiananmen Square type crackdown might save his regime, but otherwise he looks like a goner. I don't think regimes like his can make reforms at the last moment and survive--cf. Louis XVI and Gorbachev.
Obama Administration Lifts US Ban on Muslim Brotherhood Leader
as I say - watch the OTHER hand
With Obama offering support to the Muslim Brotherhood leader, expect the Egyptian army to give up on Mubarak almost instantly. He’s a goner.
Its 4:30am or so over there, they are saying prayers for another day of protests, the tanks have taken up positions.
The next 6 hours is when the proverbial shiite hits the fan...so to speak.
It's pretty amazing to see otherwise mild-mannered people transform into firebrand patriots when you bring up the subject of what's happened to our beloved country over the last few decades. Some people I've talked to, switch on like a thousand watt stadium light if you give them an opening.
And this has been happening with increasing frequency to me. I can't repeat anything these folks have said to me here. The prairie's on fire.
The Obama people are gambling that Mubarak is going out and they want to be on the right side of the Brotherhood and the New Provisional Government.
Trust me on this. In the ME, this looks craven, and weak.
This will end up like Carter and the Shah. Oil will spike. Big time. That’s what’s coming.
Saudi is next.
Best,
Chris
Tell me, I have this weird feeling like a moth being drawn to a flame that I must go out and loot something!
Seriously it depends on what part of the country you ask the people, here in Alaska we are griping about the increase in gas prices, otherwise most of the brain dead voters up here could care less as long as Murkowski gets more pork for them.
If so, this development will catapult Sarah Palin straight into the White House in 2012.
We've seen this movie before, and the current actors in the leading roles are near-dead ringers for the original cast.
The CIA has never correctly predicted the outcome of world events... so this would be the first time.
I just don't get that. My impression of Alaskans has always been that they're drawn from similar stock as most folks in the frontier West. I'd expect to see a much fiercer response to Odumbo from them.
What to do next?
There is little we can do to influence the outcome.
re: Consolidation
You may be very right. Many of these countries were the results on nothing more than Lord Balfour drawing meaningless lines in the sand in 1926.
Oil would go up on speculation.
Radicals have a way of “rising’ to the top in the ME these days.
In my personal opinion and from what I hear and see a sizable trend for Alaskans is becoming more Libertarian. They view the weak ineptness of the GOP with disregard as they do truly loath the liberal ideology.
Alaska was GOP, still is when it comes to most issues but without a true conservative leader ACTIVELY trying to become a leader, well they just look as if America is...Far far and Away.
I sincerely hope the perception is correct but consider where we live before getting too hopeful. We are in a minority I feel, though have and have not alike here are getting agitated.
I just hope dumbo keeps poking the angry bear with a stick all the way up until November 2012 when I hope the angry bear rips his head off and stuffs it down his neck. If the little lady at my local bank out here in the woods is any indication it’ll be ugly. She just got redder and redder as her voice and blood pressure rose.
Up...!!!
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