Posted on 01/28/2011 3:01:22 PM PST by MindBender26
As many of you know, am old network TV newsie. Just tapped former proven source, retired VERY senior CIA officer. No Hq paper-pusher type, he is the real deal, a highly successful very senior ME field operator. Retired as ES-4.
From an intel assesment stanspoint, he is a proven source, with access to information, extensive field work in the area, no reason to lie and has always given good data in past.
His assessment (in shorthand:)
1. If Egypt falls, disaster for US. Put succinctly; "the horse we bet all our life savings on may be about to drop dead in the backstretch."
2. If Egypt gmvt falls, radical Muslim Brotherhood will be the new power, totally.
3. If Egypt falls, Jordan and Saudi are in trouble, but not necessarily gone. Even Syria is not safe.
4. Although Muslim Brotherhood would take over, the cause of revolt is not religion but the lack of jobs, horrible standard of living. Saudi and Jordan citizens have somewhat better conditions, so might be saved.
5. Egyptian Army is the absolute key. If Army stays local, Mubarak may be safe. If they falter, he is absolute toast.
6. Problem is, Army does not like Mubarak. They loved Sadat, he was one of them, but they do not like Hosni.
7. If Egypt falls, biggest winners are Iran and Russia. Iran becomes big kid on block. Russia desperately needs crude oil prices to go up to help economy. They prosper at $90 barrel crude. This could create $220, $250 a barrel crude oil prices
8. Big loser? Surprisingly not Israel. Just more enemies... who all know Israel will take war nuc if necessary to save self.... but due to US aid, Egyptian Army has great American equipment.
9. Biggest loser #2; Western Europe
10. Biggest loser #1; USA. Oil prices cripple economy. Even worse, word in every diplomatic circle becomes "See what happens to America's friends."
Bottom line; possible/probable disaster for US
Probably gone too.
I don't give a rip about Yemen or Tunisia, I only ask because they might be an indicator of momentum, will we be seeing a collapse and consolidation of many islamist states?
At the ice cream parlor, losing the future.
I’m impressed.
Egypt has one bank of the Suez canal.
I am getting that Deja Vu thing again....it is kind of strange, but no problem, we've got Super Obama at the helm.
“If gas goes to $5 a gallon, unemployment will be more than 10%.”
Try $6 a gallon and we are already at real 15% unemployment.
People voted for this in 2008.
This is just another example of the efficacy of “Smart Diplomacy”.
thx for the input. For those who think you may be making this up, I recall back in the spring of 2008 when you posted about a meeting you had at the congressional club in DC and how everyone was saying that a little known Governor from AK would be McCain’s VP choice. So, your sources are legit./
It looks like Obama is about to get his “3 AM phone call.”
I have no idea. If I was that smart I’d be president. Well, not neccessarily.
>If gas goes to $5, unemployment will be more than 10%.
Isn’t unemployment more than 10% right now?
I’ll see your speculation and raise ya one! Timing is everything. With any luck, even if $5 a gallon is a bargain in early 2012, 0bama will still be foolish enough to campaign for reelection, though the party bigs will be begging him to withdraw from the contest.
And he’ll lose like Carter.
well there is someone who comes to mind when it comes to energy production. Her husband’s SS code name was driller, after all.
What rule of law? This is America post-2008 - the law only applies to the little people who have no standing.
There is no law. They make it up as they go.
In an era of two-income households, probably higher. More knowledgeable FReepers will correct me if I’m wrong, but I think during the Great Depression, unemployment was around 25% when women traditionally stayed home.
Is is possible that Obama feels, as he looks at his stack of briefing materials which he probably would rather not read tonight, that he still has a trump card of his own to play in order to redeem his position with ME countries now in turmoil and simultaneously strike another blow to his perceived domestic opponents?—As in announcing, “I have returned to the faith of my fathers”?
I absolutely agree 100%
Re 10, Egypt has virtually no oil, is on the Mediterranean, therefore impact to oil production and delivery negligible.
Just say’n. . .
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