Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
Ellsbury is far more advanced as a hitter than Damon at age 24. Not power-wise, but as a hitter. He could end up like a Pete Rose kind of comp.
He has doubles power and can turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples. He is kind of rough in the OF though. He will get better but we have seen amazing defense from Crisp this year. Hope he fetches us a 1B in a trade this offseason. He’s got 2 years at 5 million a year with an option for a 3rd at 8 million. That’s reasonable coin for his D and speed.
As misterrob said, Theo would have voted against the deal for Beckett if he’d been employed as GM. The Beckett deal was all Larry Lucchino. He championed it and got it approved by John Henry over the objections of other Sox executives. Theo didn’t like to trade away talented Sox minor leaguers. That’s why he did the Schilling deal— we gave up lower tier guys for him and not top guys like Sanchez and Ramirez.
Ramirez will be an All Star but Beckett and Lowell will likely win us a World Series and as a fan that’s what matters. Having seen the futility of the Sox over the years in winning it all this deal will have to be remebered as what made it happen along with a good couple of drafts that gave us Papelbon, Ellsbury and Pedroia.
Any word on when the WS parade might be held?
Theo drafted our Game 4 starter, too: Jon Lester.
Buchholtz as well. I think those two will do okay next year in Boston with Clay having bigger upside since he tends to throw more strikes and has a superior change as a K pitch. Frankly the Sox could take next year as a semi-rebuild while they clear payroll and reload for another run. At the end of 2008 they will wind up dumping about $80 million off of where they started this year. I expect that the past few drafts will have another position player and 2-3 pitchers ready for the big leagues in 2009 with a bunch of money available for FAs to fill out the team.
I was thinking the same thing. The final out of every World Series is a special moment... nobody but Papelbon should be on the mound.
Ugh. This morning came too early. See you all tonight.
Interesting note from Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe this morning:
Only one American League team in 103 years of World Series play has executed a four-game sweep in successive Series appearances. The Yankees have done it on three occasions, the last when Joe Torre was still employed (1998-99).
Three years to the night Keith Foulke flipped to Doug Mientkiewicz for the final out of the 2004 Series, the Sox stand poised to become the second. The Sox took a six-run lead, then held off the Colorado Rockies, 10-5, in Game 3 of the 103d World Series before a crowd of 49,983 blissfully unaware of the real meaning of the white towels they waved with such fervor when this one started.
If Jacoby can turn into a Sizemore-type leadoff player, the Sox will stay at the top for a long time.
He could be the kind of player you NEVER want to give up. He could be that good.
And if they can dump $80 mill in salary, how much better would that be?
Then there is the football team that is winning 45-0. Life must be pretty good in NE these days.
I’m in VA but still love my hometown teams.
52-7 with time running out.
They are spending money on their draft picks to make sure that they get them into the fold. They have also told Selig to screw with his directive to follow a salary slotting system since the Sox already give MLB tens of millions every year in revenue sharing.
The Boston Red Sox survived a scare in their first World Series game at Coors Field, and now are on the verge of their second championship in four years.Aaron Cook throws hard, featuring a fastball that can crank up to 98 mph and a sinker. Lefties like Drew and Ellsbury could have big nights against him.The Red Sox can complete their second straight World Series sweep with a win over the Colorado Rockies in Game 4 on Sunday night at Coors Field.
The 22 previous teams that took a 3-0 World Series lead all went on to win -- including the Red Sox in 2004, when they took four in a row from the St. Louis Cardinals to win their first title since 1918.
And should Boston win this game to secure its seventh World Series title, it also would be the first team to sweep consecutive World Series opponents since the New York Yankees defeated San Diego in 1998 and Atlanta in 1999.
"We're very confident, but at the same time we know Colorado is a great ballclub, and it's going to be a tough one to get the last one," said Jacoby Ellsbury, who along with Dustin Pedroia and Daisuke Matsuzaka helped lead the Red Sox to a 10-5 win on Saturday.
Ellsbury, who got the start in center field in place of Coco Crisp, became the first rookie in 61 years with four hits in a Series game. Fellow rookie Pedroia had three hits, including a bunt single that helped set up a six-run third inning against ineffective Rockies starter Josh Fogg.
Matsuzaka -- the Red Sox's $103 million Japanese import -- gave up two runs and three hits over 5 1-3 innings, and had a two-run single off Fogg in a six-run third-inning rally for his first major league hit.
"I think that I felt more pressure going into Game 7 of the LCS, so today was easier mentally," Matsuzaka said. "But the team won, and I didn't wind up being the one to stop our momentum. So in that sense, I feel very relieved."
The Red Sox have scored at least six runs in one inning five times this postseason, and their hitters are batting .352 (38-for-108) with 16 doubles in the Series. Boston could set the Series record for highest team batting average, currently held by the 1960 New York Yankees squad, which hit .338 in losing to the Pittsburgh Pirates in seven games.
Colorado, though, made things interesting. Brad Hawpe and Yorvit Torrealba had RBI singles in sixth before Matt Holliday hit a three-run homer in the seventh to make it 6-5. Boston then responded late as Ellsbury doubled home Julio Lugo in the eighth, and Pedroia followed with a two-run double that plated Ellsbury and Crisp.
"Pedroia has been with us all year. He's a veteran. Ellsbury ... plays with a lot of confidence, and there's a reason. He's a good player and he's aware of the situations around him. He prepares," Red Sox manager Terry Francona said. "So it's not just false bravado or acting like he's confident. He should be confident. He's a good player and he knows how to play the game."
Jason Varitek added a sacrifice fly to cap the scoring in the longest nine-inning game in Series history at 4 hours, 19 minutes.
Boston's Jon Lester and Colorado's Aaron Cook each overcame life-threatening illnesses to get back to pitching in the majors. They will square off in what arguably is the biggest game of their respective careers.
Lester overcame cancer that cut short his 2006 season and jeopardized his career. Cook left a home game in 2004 suffering from dizziness, and was in an operating room a month later to remove a rib that was pressing against a vein and causing blood clots in his lungs.
"It's tough enough to get here, and what we've been through, just to keep our focus, keep our faith, and just realize -- I'm sure (Lester) realizes, too, without me talking to him that baseball is not the most important thing, and once you realize that baseball is not the most important thing in the world, you're able to relax, put it back in perspective, play it like a game and just have fun," Cook said.
Lester didn't make his season debut until July 23, and was 4-0 with a 4.72 ERA in 11 starts. He starts in place of Tim Wakefield, who was left off the World Series roster due to a sore left shoulder.
"I'm pretty excited," said Lester, a left-hander, before Game 3. "It really hasn't hit home yet, but I'm sure tomorrow when I wake up and realize that I am pitching that I'll start thinking about it and getting nervous. But right now it really hasn't hit home, and I'm just trying to focus on (Saturday), and hopefully we can pull it out again."
Lester has never faced Colorado in his brief career, but is 6-1 with a 4.75 ERA in 13 career road starts.
Cook was Colorado's opening-day starter, but hasn't taken the mound since Aug. 10, when he suffered a strained left oblique muscle in a loss to the Chicago Cubs. The right-hander went 8-7 with a 4.12 ERA in 25 starts.
"He's the right man for the job right now," Rockies manager Clint Hurdle said. "We'll see what he can give us. I know he's geared up and ready to go. He's been waiting for this opportunity since he was six years old."
In a 2-1 defeat at Fenway Park on June 12, Cook pitched well but took the loss. He allowed two runs and seven hits, walked two and struck out four over 7 1-3 innings.
Colorado had won 21 of 22 games before an eight-day layoff heading into their first World Series, where they've completely fallen apart. The NL champions are hitting only .222 while their starting pitchers have failed to get out of the fifth inning and have an 11.12 ERA.
"We need to go out and win Game 4," Hurdle said. "I don't think you need to overreact or underreact. You just show up, get ready to play and find a way to win Game 4."
Revenue sharing is the biggest scam in pro sports. It is how Peter Angelos makes a profit owning the Baltimore Orioles. His formula is simple. Spend as little as you can on your minor league system and major league club and then pocket the revenue sharing check every year.
"This is a party, why are you in here watching the Red Sox?"
"Are you sure you grew up around here?" (Commie)
Go Sox!!!
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