Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
I'm gonna tell you a story
I'm gonna tell you about my town
I'm gonna tell you a big bad story, baby
Aww, it's all about my town
Yeah, down by the river
Down by the banks of the river Charles (aw, that's what's happenin' baby)
That's where you'll find me
Along with lovers, fuggers, and thieves (aw, but they're cool people)
Well I love that dirty water
Oh, Boston, you're my home (oh, you're the Number One place)
Frustrated women (I mean they're frustrated)
Have to be in by twelve o'clock (oh, that's a shame)
But I'm wishin' and a-hopin, oh
That just once those doors weren't locked (I like to save time for
my baby to walk around)
Well I love that dirty water
Oh, Boston, you're my home (oh, yeah)
Because I love that dirty water
Oh, oh, Boston, you're my home (oh, yeah)
Well, I love that dirty water (I love it, baby)
I love that dirty water (I love Baw-stun)
I love that dirty water (Have you heard about the Strangler?)
I love that dirty water (I'm the man, I'm the man)
I love that dirty water (Owww!)
I love that dirty water (Come on, come on)
Oh, oh, Boston, you're my home.
Chriss I aint even at home and youre heckling me. L0L
I think Jacoby Ellsbury is in the major leagues to stay.
Night all.
Pap only threw 15 pitches. He’s available tomorrow.
Yeah but consider that they have gotten key contributions from Pedroia, Youk, Ellsbury, and Papelbon who were brought up from the minors and Beckett and Lowell were acquired in a trade for prospects. Tek was a trade when he was very young. Ortiz was released by the Twins and the rest were acquired from FA or trades.
The Sox and Yankees are now spending their money on draft picks and getting guys that other teams will stay away from due to fears they cannot sign them. That’s how the Yankees got Hughes and the Chambermaid
see you tomorrow.
Good Night All.
I sure hope so. Absolutely amazing year for Ellsbury... AA to AAA to the Majors.
WOO-HOO!!! Red Sox up 3-0
See you all tomorrow night.
He needs more seasoning in Pawtucket. Definitely.
see you tomorrow!
Sure hope so... I was fearing we'd see GagMe tomorrow night. :-O
Yeah but who’s got innings 7 & 8? I fear we may see Gagne before the night is over and it won’t be because we are that far ahead.
Then again, Colorado had to eat 6 1/3 innings tonight. We had to go 3 and 2/3. Let’s see how they look tomorrow if we knock their SP out early. If they light us up then we can use Snyder and Lopez and Gagne for 5 innings and have Papelbon and Okijima for Game 5 and 3 innings on a night that Beckett starts.
He will likely struggle next year as clubs start to develop a book on him. His speed will always buy him some hits but I would love to see him learn to draw walks and let stuff outside the zone go. He’s got a quick bat though which covers some sins but he needs work. Some scouts think Grady Sizemore when they look at him. If Jacoby can become that good then the Sox are in good shape.
We still might. I only hope it’s to pitch the 8th inning with us up by 6 and Papelbon warming in the pen. Hell, Papelbon should be on the mound when we are about to sew it up no matter what the score.
Think of how other GM’s wish they could be as good as Theo when it comes to evaluating talent. Our Shaprio, and Colorado’s O’Dowd(ex-Indian Asst. GM)are close, but haven’t hit the jackpot as often as Theo has.
Good night all, see ya tomorrow!
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