Posted on 10/23/2007 5:50:12 PM PDT by GraniteStateConservative
vs.
Curt Schilling vs. Ubaldo Jimenez
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for every World Series game for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one play at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios.
Boston winning 66.8 percent of World Series simulations
AccuScore simulates each playoff game and the entire playoff series 10,000 times. This season, the team that has won over 50 percent of series simulations won their series with one exception: New York won 51 percent of simulations over Cleveland. AccuScore correctly projected Colorado to upset both Philadelphia and Arizona, but in simulations vs. Boston, the Red Sox ride home-field advantage and the dominant pitching of Josh Beckett to win 66.8 percent of series simulations.
The forecast below is based on the designated starters and was run on data available as of October 23. AccuScore's proprietary algorithm weights each game's data, and as each game is played the simulation winning percentages will change. The simulation winning percentages also will change if the projected starters change.
| Game | Starters | COL | BOS | |
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| Game 1 | Francis vs. Beckett | 31.2% | 68.8% | |
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| Game 2 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 3 | Matsuzaka vs. Fogg | 52.1% | 49.2% | |
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| Game 4 | Lester vs. Cook | 56.3% | 43.7% | |
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| Game 5 | Beckett vs. Francis | 45.9% | 54.1% | |
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| Game 6 | Jimenez vs. Schilling | 35.7% | 64.3% | |
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| Game 7 | Fogg vs. Matsuzaka | 39.0% | 61.0% |
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| WIN SERIES | 33.2% | 66.8% |
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PITCHERS (11): Josh Beckett, Manny Delcarmen, Eric Gagne, Jon Lester, Javier Lopez, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Hideki Okajima, Jonathan Papelbon, Curt Schilling, Kyle Snyder, Mike Timlin.
CATCHERS (2): Doug Mirabelli, Jason Varitek.
INFIELDERS (7): Alex Cora, Eric Hinske, Mike Lowell, Julio Lugo, David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis.
OUTFIELDERS (5): Coco Crisp, J.D. Drew, Jacoby Ellsbury, Bobby Kielty, Manny Ramirez.
CATCHERS (2): Chris Iannetta, Yorvit Torrealba.
INFIELDERS (5): Garrett Atkins, Jamey Carroll, Todd Helton, Kazuo Matsui, Troy Tulowitzki.
OUTFIELDERS (7): Jeff Baker, Brad Hawpe, Matt Holliday, Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Cory Sullivan, Willy Taveras.
I think they do Beer Barrel Polka in Milwaukee...
I guess they do “Thank God I’m a Country Boy” because people can clap their hands along with it. So, when the series
goes to Denver, will we hear the audience sing along with that rockin’ tune...
“Rocky Mountain High....Colorado...” ?
And in NY, you have Cotton Eyed Joe, an old folk song
remade in the 90s (see below) being played at Yankees
games. The book “The Devil Wears Pinstripes” took
the Yanks to task for that.
Wikipedia:
>>In 1994, Swedish eurodance band Rednex covered the song as “Cotton Eye Joe”, combining their style with traditional American instruments, such as banjos, fiddles, and harmonicas. The version released by Rednex is often played in the US.
It was nice to see the sox hold a one run lead for 5 innings. Although a blowout is easier to sit through, I think winning these types is important. lets face it most of the games in the playoffs we have either blown them out or lost tight ones.
Youkilis is odd man out in Game 3
With DH option out, Red Sox go with Big Papi at first base
By Ian Browne / MLB.com
DENVER — One hitter that the Red Sox rely on heavily was going to have to sit in Game 3 of the World Series. There was simply no way around it. Under National League rules, the Red Sox no longer have a designated hitter, which has forced manager Terry Francona into moving star slugger David Ortiz to first base.
Mike Lowell will stay at third, which means that red-hot Kevin Youkilis — Boston’s everyday first baseman who can also play the hot corner — will open Game 3 on the bench.
Francona isn’t sure whether he’ll stick with the same alignment for Game 4.
“Well, I think David is a really good hitter, and I think Mike Lowell is a really good hitter, and I actually think Youk is a really good hitter,” said Francona, “but they won’t let us play all three of them. So we’ll go with this. The hope would be we’d have a lead, we’ll put Youk in late. It doesn’t always work perfect, but we’ll do the best we can.”
Youkilis took a team-first attitude.
“I mean, I think people are making this out to be a little bit more than it is,” said Youkilis, who’s hitting .396 in the postseason. “We’re here to try to win a World Series. You can’t be upset. We’re in a great position right now. We’re up two games to none. If you’re worried about your playing time and this and that, I think you’re in the wrong spot. This is the World Series. You’ve just got to be happy to go out and help in any capacity you can.”
Ortiz last played first base on June 24. In all, Ortiz started seven games at first base in 2007 and didn’t make an error. He has no fewer than three gloves to choose from on Saturday night.
“They’re all brand new,” quipped Big Papi.
The only reason Francona had hedged slightly on whether Ortiz would start the three games at Coors Field is because of the right knee that has troubled him all year long.
Ortiz thinks his knee is good enough to get by for, at the most, three days of defense.
“When we’re 2-0, [the knee] feels great,” Ortiz said. “Right now, I have no pain. I have a little bit of swelling, but the pain is not as bad as it gets sometimes. The other day when I was working at first base, when I finished, it felt a little bit crazy. But this is it, bro. After this, there’s no other [series].”
The deciding factor between Lowell and Youkilis was probably the defense of the latter. Lowell is a terrific defender at third, while Youkilis played just 12 games there this season. Also, Lowell drove in 120 runs for the Red Sox during the season, and he’s hitting .333 in the postseason with a homer and 12 RBIs.
!!Beside Ortiz playing first, I expect Ellsbury will bat lead off and Pedrioa bats second.
Ellsbury needs to understand that he needs to get on base and bunting to get on is fine. His manager also needs to turn him lose when he gets there. The Rockies catcher can’t throw anyone out and Ellsbury could be a major source of disruption.
Let’s see if Francona does the smart thing or has Lugo hitting second.
They already announced that Jacoby will lead off and iPod will bat second. Although, Tito did say he reserves the right to change his mind.
Ellsbury is going to have to really develop .OBP talents for next year since he will be the lead off guy and Shorty goes 2nd. With Lowell likely to be moving on Youk will be moved to 6th. If they can get a 1st Baseman with some pop then he’ll hit 7th with Tek and Lugo bringing up the bottom.
I agree. He has the skills to be an excellent lead off hitter but I don’t see him being consistent enough in his approach to be effective in that position. Hopefully for a few games he will be.
I would have preferred they leave Lowell, Youk and Ortiz in the lineup by moving J.D. to center, Youk to right field, and Ortiz at first. I’d have gone with this batting order:
Pedroia 2B
Youkilis RF
Ortiz 1B
Rameriz LF
Lowell 3B
Drew CF
Varitek C
Matsuzaka P
Lugo SS
I’d put Lugo ninth so there is more potential for runners on base in front of Big Papi.
I like that Yankees pic. :-0)
The Colorado Rockies' high-powered offense has cooled off since the start of the World Series. Returning to the comforts of home could help change their fortunes.The Rockies host the first World Series contest in the state of Colorado on Saturday night as they try to cut into the Boston Red Sox's 2-0 series lead and avoid falling in a deeper hole.
Colorado was the hottest team in baseball entering the postseason, winning 21 of 22 games - including its first seven in the playoffs as it swept Philadelphia in the division series and Arizona in the championship series -- to reach the World Series for the first time in franchise history. The Rockies also entered the World Series on a 10-game road winning streak, but were outscored 15-2 in the first two games at Fenway Park.
A frenzied atmosphere, however, awaits them at Coors Field.
"I think that's why they play 81 games at home and 81 games on the road," Rockies starting pitcher Josh Fogg said. "The whole 50,000 people screaming for you, and you get last at-bats. That's the reason why they play them that way.
"That's the advantage. You have a chance to go out there and try to score if their team scores, and it's tough to play with 50,000 people yelling at you. I'm looking forward to them screaming on my side this time."
The Rockies no doubt need a morale boost after being humbled in the first two games. They're batting .180 with 22 strikeouts in the World Series after leading the NL with a .280 batting average in the regular season.
"It's a little shocking," Colorado rookie shortstop Troy Tulowitzki said. "You don't now how to react now. We became used to winning and used to shaking hands, coming into the clubhouse and playing music and celebrating after wins.
"To come in and have it dead quiet? It's like, 'Hey, what's going on here?' It's definitely different."
A major problem for Colorado has been the struggles at the plate from the top of the lineup as Willy Taveras and Kaz Matsui are just 1-for-15 in the series. Taveras, who had missed almost a month with a calf injury before being a surprise addition to the roster for the NLCS, is just 3-for-25 in the postseason and Rockies manager Clint Hurdle may make some changes to his lineup.
"I'm thinking through some things," he said. "Anytime we get challenged offensively, you always need to rethink things and look at your options."
One benefit for the Rockies is that Boston's Kevin Youkilis won't start. With no designated hitter in NL ballparks, Youkilis -- who's reached base five times and scored three runs in the series-- will begin on the bench and David Ortiz will play first base.
Ortiz made 27 appearances at first base over the last three years, mostly in interleague play.
"It's hard to get one of your guys out of the lineup," Ortiz said. "But you've got to do something."
The Red Sox have been doing just about everything right since falling behind 3-1 to Cleveland in the AL championship series. They've outscored their opponents 45-7 in winning their last five games, and also have outscored foes 39-14 during a six-game World Series winning streak dating back to 2004.
Boston's Manny Ramirez has continued his strong 2007 postseason by going 4-for-8 in the World Series. Ramirez is batting .421 (16-for-38) with 16 RBIs in 12 playoff games this year.
Fogg (2-0, 1.13 ERA), a Massachusetts native, will try to remain perfect in the postseason for Colorado. He pitched two scoreless innings of relief to win Game 2 of the NLDS on Oct. 4 and won Game 3 of the NLCS on Oct. 14 by allowing one run over six innings in a 4-1 victory.
The right-hander is 4-0 with a 3.50 ERA in his last eight starts overall.
"Tomorrow is the biggest game of the year for us," Fogg said. "Luckily that's the way we've played the last month, and I think that's the attitude that everybody in that locker room has right now."
Fogg beat Boston on June 13 by yielding two runs in five innings in a 12-2 victory at Fenway Park.
The Rockies will get their first look at Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-1, 5.65), who helped the Red Sox capture the AL pennant by winning Game 7 against Cleveland on Sunday when he gave up two runs and six hits over five innings in an 11-2 victory.
The Japanese right-hander believes that the altitude in Denver may affect how he throws breaking balls on Saturday.
"Playing catch today and just feeling things out, I felt I might have to work a little harder on my command while I'm here, and the one thing that I want to be particularly careful about is leaving the breaking ball up," he said through an interpreter.
Matsuzaka is 0-4 with a 6.75 ERA in his last six road outings, including a 4-2 loss in Game 3 at Cleveland on Oct. 15 when he surrendered four runs over 4 2-3 innings.
The last 11 teams to win the first two games of the World Series at home have gone on to win the title, but Colorado isn't conceding anything yet.
"We need to go home and take care of business," Tulowitzki said. "Being down 2-0, it isn't over. But we've got our work cut out for us."
Taveras is a horrible player.
Not that Cory Sullivan is any better -- good grief!
Ellsbury leading off...unless Francona changes his mind.
J. Ellsbury, cf
D. Pedroia, 2b
D. Ortiz, 1b
M. Ramirez, lf
M. Lowell, 3b
J.D. Drew, rf
J. Varitek, c
J. Lugo, ss
D. Matsuzaka, p
Well yesterday, Taveras did score the Rox's only run. And he got on in the first inning with trickery. Down 0 - 2 in the count, Taveras took advantage of a Shilling high inside fastball swinging a quarter way with his bat and leaned into the ball that glanced off his lower arm and finger(s) to get on base. To sell the snow job, he then went into a stage act by exaggerated shaking his hand up and down for the umpire who awarded him the base.
The ump bought it and so did most of the spectators.
Think maybe i’ll hit a bar for this one. Saw game 7 of the Yankees series at an Irish dive bar here in Norwood, MA back in 04 and it was a seriously great time.
So he's a good actor. He's STILL a horrible player!
I'm Shipping Up to Boston by Dropkick Murphys
Crank it up loud before Game Time!
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