Posted on 05/30/2024 9:10:06 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
It's official, the verdict is in, and the deed is done; as RedState's own Susie Moore reported only moments ago, former President Donald John Trump has been found guilty of all counts by a Manhattan jury. The next few days will be filled with discussion of this result and what will happen next. As a certain character in a certain film franchise involving gene-engineered dinosaurs famously repeated: "Hold on to your butts."
One of the biggest questions is this: "How will this affect the 2024 election?" The nominations on both sides are effectively decided. Donald Trump has the delegates sewn up to win the nomination, he has been endorsed (tepidly, in a couple of cases) by his primary GOP primary election challengers. He's the candidate, guilty verdict or not. As it happens, a new poll released Thursday, prior to the verdict being decided, would appear to indicate that there won't be any significant effect:
A new national poll is the latest to indicate that regardless of whether former President Trump is found guilty or acquitted in his criminal trial, the verdict will not have a large impact on voters' perceptions in his 2024 election rematch with President Biden.
Two-thirds of registered voters nationwide questioned in a NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll released on Thursday said a guilty verdict in the trial would make no difference to their vote in the presidential election. Seventeen percent said a conviction of Trump would make them less likely to vote for him and 15% said they'd be more inclined to support the former president at the ballot box.
If Trump is acquitted, three-quarters of those surveyed said it wouldn't impact their vote. Fourteen percent said a not guilty verdict would make them more likely to back Trump, and 9% said they'd be less likely to vote for the former president.
To sum this up:
A guilty verdict - which, as we see, is the case - 67 percent of registered voters say it will make no impact, while 17 percent say they will be less likely to vote for Trump; fifteen percent say they will be more likely to vote for him. This is a statistical wash; although we should note that this poll was taken before the verdict, when all this was hypothetical. At the moment, though, the only indicator we have is that this verdict won't have much effect.
As for the impact of a not-guilty verdict - well, there's little point in discussing that now.
There are a few likely outcomes of all this that we can predict right away, though:
Joe Biden - or rather, his handlers - have the reason they need to pull out of any presidential debates now. Biden can swell up and pontificate that he's not going to debate a "convicted felon," and Democrats will line up to bark and clap like trained seals; this works to the Democrats' advantage, as any debate performance by the clearly-impaired president was bound to be a disaster.
Donald Trump (and this is a guess, but I think it's a pretty good one) will suffer some see-sawing in the polls for a few days, but will continue slowly gaining ground, as he has been doing in recent weeks.
If Donald Trump does win the election, which is perfectly possible as there is nothing in the Constitution prohibiting a convicted felon from running for or being elected president, the left will use this verdict as a reason to screech "Illegitimate President" for four years.
The Trump team, as Susie Moore pointed out in her breaking piece above, will almost certainly file a motion to set aside, followed by an appeal. What's not clear is if any of this will be resolved before the election.
This is the inflection point, as I said in a VIP piece I wrote on Thursday morning. This is where things get interesting. This is the moment where everything has changed.
Only minutes ago, the former President gave his brief and emphatic reply to the verdict:
See Related: WATCH: Donald Trump Reacts to 34-Count Guilty Verdict in NY Case
We are in uncharted territory now, friends. It's anybody's guess what will happen next.
The shitocrats are going to steal the election or die trying. Be prepared for Biden’s miracle comeback on election night.
Duh! What person who supported Trump before the verdict would not support him afterward?
“We are in uncharted territory now, friends. It’s anybody’s guess what will happen next.”
I think it is safe to say the Republic will never be the same. The rabid leftists have unleashed lawfare, something we had never heard or even conceived of a few years ago. They have smashed to pieces our judicial system. Nobody is safe from the bogus judicial system.
Down the road, American history will point to May 30, 2024 as a watershed moment as significant as April 20, 1775, July 4, 1776, the constitutional convention in 1787 and many other key dates. But this one is probably more on par with Southern Secession in 1861. I fear our demise will accelerate from this point forward.
“on election night” and the following ten days.
I think we’re headed for what Czechoslovakia went through after the Soviet invasion of 1968 got rid of Dubcek.
People pretty much just tuned out of all things political and became apathetic.
Someone remarked tonight, “Before this verdict I would have risked my life to vote for Trump. After this verdict you will risk your life trying to stop me from voting for Trump.”
Again, this trial and the over-the-top cartoonish “when did you stop beating your wife” conduct of the New York DA and Court wasn’t about anything but giving the current regime a cudgel to swing around in their own fetid swamp, and defining the November election as not Biden vs Trump, but DC vs America.
You know the verdict is really a result of rigged trial when you have the likes of Senators Susan Collins and Mitch McConnel denouncing it.
The true test will be how much $s my fellow Trump supporters donate to the Trump campaign, he will need ads to persuade the independents and most is going for court costs
Today probably brought aboard a LOT of voters for TRUMP.. I understand the Donations are FLOWING in big time right now.
Yeah right…liberal progressive hopium!
They just handed Trump the election. The only way they can stop him now is to kill him.
D3mocrats will never be apathetic. They are always vindictive.
They are the Communist Party. I'm talking about the rest of the citizens, who will just go along quietly.
“You know the verdict is really a result of rigged trial when you have the likes of Senators Susan Collins and Mitch McConnel denouncing it”
Really? Maybe they finally get it that now the D’s are feeling so righteous, so cock-sure of themselves, and so hyped up and full of Jacobin-like fury that no R is safe, even if that R has secretly been a D. They D’s can gin up something against them and just replace them with a true and overt D.
A measure of more likely to vote for Trump and less likely to vote for Trump gets into the world of how hard a button gets pressed.
Those people may have already made up their minds. Now they are more sure or less sure, but it doesn’t change which chad gets punched, as it were.
A) They will cheat so wildly that you can expect to see 250,000,000 'votes' for Biden.
B) And if A) doesn't work, they will kill him.
I have always maintained that, although Trump won the election in 2016, it caused him and his family more heartaches than it did Hillary. The hex still lives in peace and security while for Trump it has been a traumatic lifetime ever since his win. Am amazed that he still wants to pursue the presidency after all that trouble he went through.
Biden did not speak which means the poll numbers are a disaster after this outrage.
Thankfully, we’ve all been admonished by Jill to vote for the good and not the evil. And I will do just that ... Biden will never get my vote.
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