Threat Matrix 2024

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy

- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.

Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.

Back from a long weekend soaking in hot springs in the mountains of the Redoubt. Bit smoky but still beautiful.

Very little earthshaking happened but the continuous drumbeat of multiple threats to the US and its citizens. Now closing in on the last couple months before the elections, things continue to get more intense.

Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future

The Workers’ Party (PT), the ruling party of Brazil and the party of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, continues to post on X to promote its candidates in the upcoming elections despite a judicial order banning the platform in the country.

This week, Brazil implemented a nationwide ban on X, threatening fines of roughly $8,900 for individuals who access the platform via VPN. The decision followed Elon Musk’s refusal to appoint a legal representative in Brazil and the closure of X’s offices there. This comes after his previous legal representative fled the country rather than face arrest at the nation’s highest court took aim at X, eventually outlawing it entirely.

https://humanevents.com/2024/09/01/brazils-ruling-party-continues-to-post-on-x-despite-lulas-regime-banning-platform#google_vignette

(Amir Tsarfati ) - Elon Musk warns that free speech may not exist if Kamala Harris, who was a strong supporter of removing Trump from Twitter, gets into office.

Here are some attacks on free speech that have taken place this past month:

1. Brazil announces anyone using a VPN to access X will be fined up to $8,874 a day. They have also demanded Apple and Amazon remove the X app from their stores.

2. German podcast hosts of ‘Hoss and Hopf’ face a €250,000 fine and jail time in Germany after they “misgendered” a bald transgender person.

3. Telegram founder Pavel Durov is arrested in France for not censoring users.

4. UK arrests a 55-year-old woman for sharing “misinformation” online.

5. UK looks to move forward with new legislation that would label misogyny as a form of extremism.

6. EU Commissioner Thierry Breton sent Elon Musk a letter, demanding that he comply with their censorship laws.

7. Rumble CEO Chris Pavlovski fled Europe, citing threats from the French government.

8. META CEO Mark Zuckerberg released a letter, detailing how the Biden-Harris administration and the FBI worked to censor content on META platforms.

OBSERVATION - More on the threat against free speech and expression by globalist leaders. Those following the Brazil aspects note that it is the court, not the administration, that is leading the policy attacks on free speech. What is also being noted is that there has been essentially no push back by the US govt. As noted with fakebook’s Zuckerberg faux apology, the US govt is actively pursuing similar censorship behind the scenes.
Bottom line is conditions are going to be pressed further and further as the globalists well know that they cannot implement their plans if there is free exchange of ideas out there - they cannot handle the competition .

Also - a lot of people are advocating getting VPN and using it now. While this may be a short term workaround, the powers that be may then shut down the internet even further or all together to silence the flow of views and information. Conspiracy theory or just common sense seeing what the govts have already done the past few years.

RELATED -
A five-member panel of Brazil’s Supreme Court will vote on Monday whether to uphold Justice Alexandre de Moraes’ ruling to shut down social media platform X in the country.

Moraes, whom X owner Elon Musk has labeled a “dictator,” has called a virtual session of the court’s first chamber — of which he is a member — so peers can review his decision.

Brazil’s Supreme Court has 11 justices split between two chambers of five members each, not including the chief justice. They can vote to maintain or reject decisions by a single judge.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/brazil-x-ban/2024/09/02/id/1178705/

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.

***
Also associated with illegal immigration - the rising crisis of Venezuelan gangs in Aurora is forcing the hand of the Gov of Colorado to finally hint that there is a problem. The mayor is now more open of the ongoing crime wave.

What puzzles me is the signifiant delay in action to nip this in the bud and conduct massive closures of areas and sweeps for these gangsters. The conventional, progressive lack of enforcement and even traditional enforcement measures are not working or even being applied. This gang is getting entrenched quickly and will expand its territory to other areas around Denver, Colorado and the rest of the country.

This expansion may well encounter resistance if it ventures into much redder portions of the country, and it won’t be pretty.

***
Some college campus protest in support of Hamas have popped up, but are no where near the size and intensity of those this past spring.

Terrorism - Moderate THREAT as of Sep 2, 2024
Downgrade of threat as Iran appears to be backpedaling on escalating the crisis with Israel.

AQ and ISIS rhetorically continue to call for terror strikes on the west.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

Americans’ average personal savings rate fell to its lowest monthly level in more than two years in July, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Friday.

At 2.9%, the personal savings rate for July was down from June’s 3.1% rate. It was also the lowest savings rate since June of 2022 (2.7%).

Since April of 2008, when it was 2.4%, the monthly savings rate has been less than 3.0% only these two times, both under the Biden Administration. Under the previous administration, the personal savings rate more than doubled, from 5.6% to 12.8%.

Meanwhile, the BEA reported that it revised U.S. personal disposable income (DPI) growth from May to June down from 0.2% to 0.1%.

In July, U.S. disposable personal income (personal income less personal current taxes) increased $54.8 billion (0.3%). But, personal outlays (the sum of personal consumption expenditures, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments) increased nearly twice that much: $103.3 billion (0.5).

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/us-personal-savings-rate-falls-lowest-level-more-two-years

OBSERVATION - The dems continue the attempt to gaslight Americans into thinking the economy is the best it has ever been. Americans look at their bank account and see right through that farce.
What is critical is that Americans have fewer resources to fall back on in the event of a major recession and that could make matters worse by causing spending to drop even more dramatically along with more loan and credit defaults.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Oct 2- 5: International Bird Flu Summit in DC

Nearly 10% of people in Japan who reported having myocarditis or pericarditis after receiving an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine died from the condition within 64 days after they received the vaccine, a new peer-reviewed study found. Fatality rates were highest among men under 30.

However, the study authors downplayed the finding by reporting that “overall outcomes were good,” according to Dr. Peter McCullough — a cardiologist and author of more than 1,000 publications — who analyzed the study on his Substack.

“In the COVID-19 crisis,” McCullough said, “we have learned to look at the data and the analyses ourselves because there are usually very important results downplayed by the authors — this time it is vaccine myopericarditis mortality.”
McCullough combined the numbers from the study’s results for myocarditis and pericarditis cases to show that 97 of the 1,014 (9.6%) myopericarditis cases were fatal.

Myopericarditis is an umbrella term for myocarditis, inflammation of the heart, and pericarditis, inflammation of the tissue surrounding the heart.
“A 9.6% case fatality rate for a vaccine side effect largely in young healthy men is astronomical and clinically unacceptable,” he said.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/08/study-finds-9-6-fatality-rate-among-people-who-reported-myocarditis-or-pericarditis-after-an-mrna-covid-vaccine/

OBSERVATION - Absurd - “overall outcomes were good,” !!! A 9.6% mortality rate far exceeds the mortality rate of the disease itself!

POLITICAL FRONT –

Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

Remember the axiom above. There is the appearance that polling is shifting back to trumps favor. There have been some released by clearly democrat/partisan polling firms that show harris with a substantial lead, but those have a history of being wildly wrong. Speaking of history, now that we are post labor day, pollsters are likely to be more ‘conservative’ in their polling because if they are off by too much by the election, they lose ‘credibility’ and with that future business. So I expect a slow but steady regrowth of trumps lead in the weeks to come.

Dems and Reps have been going at it hammer and tongs this weekend. The fallout from Harris/Walz disastrous ‘interview’ continue to rumble and more policy flip flops are coming forward by harris. Walz is facing even more criticism over his lying on his past. Even his brother reportedly is set to come out with details that won’t be pleasant.

Dems have amassed a very large coffer of funds to flood ads from national to local level races. If my TV survives getting something thrown at it in reflex to the BS these adds spew it will be a miracle.

Biden / Harris Watch –

biden is now onto 3 weeks of vacation - who’s running the country?

Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Sep 1, 2024

Things cooling off between Iran and Israel driver in lower threat.

Illegal Immigration –

Mexico increasing bussing of illegals from the southern areas of its nation to the border. These illegals have finagled the immigration app to get preference of entrance.

See CW2 above, increased crime organizations / cartel activity is increasing.

China –

See Philippines below.

Japan –

Chinese drones entered Japan defense zone on several occasions over the weekend. This is an increase in activity.

Phillipines –

Chinese forces surrounded and rammed the flagship of the Philippine Coast Guard today at Escoda Shoal in the seventh scuffle this month between Beijing and Manila in the South China Sea.

BRP Teresa Magbanua (MRRV-9701), the Philippine Coast Guard’s flagship and largest patrol ship, was rammed three times by China Coast Guard vessel 5205 around noon. The collisions punched a hole in the Teresa Magbanua’s hull and caused other damage. Multiple Chinese vessels surrounded the 97-meter-long Japanese-made patrol ship, during the fracas, including two Type 837 tugs from the People’s Liberation Army Navy.

China also blockaded a Philippine resupply mission and rammed three Philippine ships in August across the disputed region that China claims under the Ten-Dash Line. There were also three disputed aerial incidents.

https://news.usni.org/2024/08/31/chinese-vessels-ram-surround-philippine-coast-guard-flagship-in-south-china-sea

OBSERVATION - Aggression by China is escalating and one of these times guns will ring out. Continued talks about joint escorts involving US naval vessels - developing.

Russia -

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Russia will change its nuclear doctrine based on an analysis of recent conflicts and the West’s actions, - Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov

The existing nuclear doctrine, set out in a decree by President Vladimir Putin in 2020, says Russia may use nuclear weapons in the event of a nuclear attack by an enemy or a conventional attack that threatens the existence of the state. Some hawks among Russia’s military analysts have urged Putin to lower the threshold for nuclear use in order to “sober up” Russia’s enemies in the west. Ryabkov’s comments on Sunday were the clearest statement yet that changes would indeed be made. “The work is at an advanced stage, and there is a clear intent to make corrections,” state news agency Tass cited Ryabkov as saying. The decision was “connected with the escalation course of our western adversaries” in connection with the Ukraine conflict.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/sep/02/ukraine-war-briefing-russia-says-it-will-change-nuclear-doctrine-due-to-western-escalation-in-ukraine

OBSERVATION - The war against Ukraine has resulted in many of the “red lines” drawn by Russia being soundly crossed and putin’s nuclear threats seen as toothless upon crossing them.

Economic Impact –

Chinese state banks are shutting down transactions with Russia “en masse” and billions of yuan worth of payments are held up, a source close to the government told Reuters.
This follows threats of secondary sanctions by the US Treasury earlier this summer.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Over the weekend, the missile exchanged continued. overnight, Ukrainian air defense shot down 9/16 Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, 13/14 Kh-101 cruise missiles and 20/23 UAVs. Kyiv region was the primary target zone.

On Sunday, Ukraine launched the largest drone attack on Russia to date. Over 158 drones were sent towards Moscow, successfully hitting two power plants and an oil refinery facility.

Ukraine’s newly acquired F-16s faced their first significant challenge as one of the jets was lost during an engagement against a massive Russian missile barrage on August 26.
It is not clear yet - though many outlets say otherwise - if this was a friendly fire, enemy fire or pilot error caused loss.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Little gains by Ukraine noted.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

The Russian offensive in this region gained traction over the weekend and made significant gains. While the Ukraine Kursk offensive has diverted some units, the Russians have maintained this as their principle war effort on the front and are giving it everything they got.

Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -

More Ukraine trouble here as there were gains in the Chasiv Yar area over the weekend.

Outlook —

The offensive into Kursk is playing out as Ukraine doesn’t have the forces necessary to add to the assault and Russian reinforcements are starting to get organized for defense.

Russian success on the Pokrovsk axis is a growing concern and if successful, they will control a major road and rail center - further disrupting Ukraine defensive efforts. If Ukraine has a trick up its sleeve to stop this assault, they better be playing it sooner rather than later.

The deep game by both sides kicked up a notch this weekend. Ukraine strikes in the Moscow area once again brought the war to the people’s attention. Russian PR may have been successful in sculpting the public perception of the action in Kursk, but they can’t manage direct eyewitness accounts of the attacks. Russia has hammered Ukraine power plants and now is on the receiving end of similar strikes by Ukraine. Though Russian ADA claims of downing Ukraine drones is impressive, now it appears it will have to stretch its assets even more to cover power generation. This will create more holes that Ukraine can exploit.

At this stage, much of the deep war is ebbing for a short stay, though smaller, daily strikes by both sides will continue to be expected.

Poland –

In the face of internal criticism for its lack of response to Russian drones entering Polish airspace unchallenged, Poland scrambled jets to intercept any stray drones or cruise missiles this past weekend.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- One of the six murdered hostages retrieved over the weekend was a dual citizenship American. Another was a Russian citizen.

- Protests and strikes across Israel

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

Hamas deputy leader, Khalil Al-Hayya, says that without Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphi and Netzarim corridors and the Rafah crossing, there will be no agreement

Demonstrations demanding Israel capitulate to Hamas in exchange for remaining hostages, following the recovery of 6 dead hostages found in a tunnel in Rafah. A strike was also initiated in support of protestors, but the Israeli courts ordered a halt.

A staggering 6,000 Gazans infiltrated Israel during the October 7 massacre, nearly double the previously estimated amount, according to a new probe by the Gaza Division that was submitted to IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi and published on Saturday on the N12 News site.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Continued specific strikes taking out hamas cells identified as regrouping along with continued operations to locate tunnels and possible hostages.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah continued to launch rockets into N Israel and Israel response with air and artillery strikes.

Hezbollah envoy in Tehran met Iran FM, discussing the situation in Lebanon, Gaza and West Bank. Iranian FM said Iran’s support for Resistance front will continue

The chairman of the Christian “Free Patriotic Movement”, Gebran Bassil, who is considered a political ally of Hezbollah, said in a speech this weekend that they will not stand by Hezbollah, if it initiates a war against Israel: “We stand by Hezbollah when it comes to defending Lebanon and when Israel attacks us, But we will not stand by your side if you start a war against Israel.” According to Bassil, “We are in favor of a defensive strategy and not an offensive strategy. This does not mean that we want Israel to benefit, but that Lebanon alone cannot start a war against Israel or liberate Palestine.”

Hezbollah spokesmen over the weekend have been touting the ‘success’ of the preempted missile/rocket strike against Israel.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces continue to be very busy in the Jenin region, arresting dozens of suspected terrorists, discovering bomb making sites.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Various nations continue to call for an immediate cease fire and a two-state solution.

——— FORECAST ————————-

The ‘RUMINT’ of an Iranian response I posted before the weekend obviously didn’t pan out. Though still on the table, OSINT indicators are not pointing to an imminent attack, but an effort to backpedal.

Similar backpedaling by Hezbollah indicated by their massive PR effort to claim massive success against Israel as a tool to backpedal from its previous aggressive stances and rhetoric.

Israel for its part continues to eat away at Hezbollah’s capabilities and leadership. Currently, Hezbollah’s general backing off is not giving Israel the justification to launch ground operations.

However, Israel’s strong, preemptive strike against Hezbollah demonstrated that force and the willingness and ability to use it is a deterrent in the arab world.

Hamas demands that Israel the Philadelphi corridor along the Egyptian border and the Netzarim corridor running east to west across central Gaza. As discovered during the Rafah campaign, the Philadelphi corridor was a very substantial avenue of smuggling between Gaza and Egypt. The Netzarim corridor provides Israel with a screening method to disarm any Gaza residents attempting to move back into N Gaza, limiting terrorist movements. These demands, along with others by Hamas, would essentially be a surrender of Israel and a victory for Hamas who will be allowed by Egypt, Qatar and even the US to remain the power broker in Gaza.

biden has reportedly laid out a ‘take it or leave it’ plan, that both sides are likely to leave it. The associated reports suggest that the US will no longer attempt to broker further deals if rejected.

Future cast involves continued soap opera surrounding the ceasefire talks. Combat in Gaza will continue its ebb and flow as Israel continues seek and destroy ops against Hamas as well as searching for hostages.

In the north, Israel will continue to launch pinpoint strikes on Hezbollah (and even IRGC) leaders and key command and logistic sites, with escalated responses to Hezbollah rocket attacks that protest those killings.

Iran looks to remain quiet for the moment. Current Israeli and western defensive readiness will deter Iran apparently now until it can find a window of opportunity, perhaps using an asymmetric strike.

Iran –

Associated with Iran’s ire against Israel is continued rumors that Iran is shifting efforts to make a nuclear breakthrough before any Israeli airstrike can derail the effort. As noted before are reported increased testing of detonation devices along with covert enrichment of uranium to the 90% level. How much technical support Iran has received from Russia, Pakistan and N Korea is unknown, but such aid could accelerate the development of a device. Delivery of such a device to Israel would be another significant technological matter as the components would have to be miniaturized to fit into a warhead that can be fitted probably onto a missile.

The potential re-election of Trump may also be driving the work, as there is a strong chance that Trump will reestablish sanctions and other means to prevent the development of a bomb.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.

***
See “Illegals” RE Venezuelan gangs taking over more turf.

IMHO - The concept of a CW2 is becoming very multifaceted versus the old school comparison to CW1. Not only do we have gross political differences across americans, but we now have other aspects thrown in due to uncontrolled illegal immigration. The most apparent has been the rise of gangs that are beginning to challenge what I would call ‘old school’ gangs, with the potential to kick off new gang wars in some ways similar to the cartel wars in Mexico.

Another area is the increase in radical islamic/moslem threats. We’ve already seen how somali ‘refugees’ have turned parts of Minnesota into copies of their third world garbage dumps. The growth of imported islam displayed its budding strength in the pro-hamas university protests this spring. Shriah law is fundamentally hostile to our Constitutional rights and yet it is being forced into communities.

Finally, we have the rebuild of 60/70s style leftists and anarchists in today’s Antifa and BLM. Here grows simple racism on the BLM front combined with the wanton destructive tendencies of Antifa’s hardened push for leftist control.

Should the leftist democrats finally push things to far and political war goes hot, these other elements will begin to more strongly vie for political and economic control of territory, sometimes teaming up with leftists, other times against - occasionally very fluid associations.

Ground zero for much of this fighting will be major urban areas as more rural areas are far more homogeneous in demographics and more moderate to conservative in general. This doesn’t mean they are immune from internal strife, just more prone to work things out.

Areas closer to urban areas will see the effects of urban fighting working their way out due in part to degradation of resources - food, etc - but many consider that they will be out of their territory with little fall back support. Aurora CO, being a suburb of Denver, would represent the very earliest stage of this outward movement of criminal elements towards more rural areas. Venezuelan gangs will have difficulties blending in areas of wheat fields and cattle rangeland, let alone facing armed citizens that can plunk them at 300-400 yards.

By all factors above plus others such as US military involvement, other illegal immigrant groups (Chinese) etc, a ‘hot’ civil war will be far more fluid and diverse than traditional views. All of these elements seem to be orbiting, seeking a reason and opportunity to hit the go button. Many think the ‘go’ button may revolve around the upcoming election.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Observers are noting that biden’s mental state from yesterday’s campaign appearances with harris have been greatly degraded. Most likely that they are no longer keeping him hyped up with drugs and the natural course is fully taking over.

Illegal Immigration –

Unconfirmed report that a group of 32 armed Venezuelans took over an apartment building in Chicago tonight based on a police scanner call -

6124 S King: caller says 32 Venezuelans are trespassing in the building, they are showing guns in the courtyard and they have motorcycles in the courtyard as well, all stairwells are filled.

OBSERVATION - This kind of action is growing and will likely grow to other major metropolitan areas.

Russia -

Logistics –

European officials expect Iran to deliver ballistic missiles to Russia imminently, a move that could prompt a swift response from Ukraine’s allies, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. They didn’t provide estimates of the type and scope of the deliveries or a timeline, though one of the officials said shipments could begin within a matter of days.

Russia’s acquisition of Ababil or Fateh-360 ballistic missiles would likely allow Russia to strike Ukrainian near-rear targets while preserving Russia’s stockpiles of domestically-produced missiles, such as Iskanders, for deep-rear Ukrainian targets.

Economic Impact –

September 3, 2024: Russian railroads are at the point of collapse. This process began before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. This process was underway before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The covid-19 pandemic disrupted ball bearing production worldwide. When production was back to normal, there were problems providing customers with all the ball bearings they requested. Another problem is that Russia has always imported most of its ball bearings, usually from American and West European manufacturers.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, most western suppliers of ball bearings ceased filling Russian orders. This caused a major shortage of the things in Russia as it was in the process of shifting all of its trains to relatively new coil bearings, none of which were produced in Russia. Since ball bearings are used in automotive equipment, which includes tanks and other armored vehicles, these vehicles received priority because Russia needed weapons for its troops in Ukraine. This was a higher priority that supplying Russian railroads. This ball bearing shortage for Russia’s state owned and operated railroads has, in the last few years gradually reduced service. By 2024 the Russian railroads were much less capable of moving people or freight over the vast Russian railroad system. These disruptions were also felt by essential long-distance routes like the Trans-Siberian line. The net result of all this is a sharp reduction the ability of the Russian military to move men, weapons, equipment and supplies by rail. Trucks, canal boats, high seas shipping and airfreight could not make up for the loss of railroad capacity even if they had enough ball bearings, but they don’t because they now suffer from ball bearing shortages too.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlog/articles/2024090302148.aspx#google_vignette

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Air Defense shot down 27 Shahed drones overnight

Russia is launching Shaheds from Belarus for the first time in the war. This is the equivalent of Ukraine launching missiles at Russia from NATO territory
This is an escalation by Russia

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Ukraine made some gains overnight, but largely the situation is stable.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Fighting continues to go bad for Ukraine as Russian forces continue their advances. Current Russian attacks indicate that they are concerned over their flanks as well as forward progress, now dividing up assaults more to shore up the flanks.

Russian Territory –

The Moscow Oil Refinery has halted half of its operations after a Ukrainian drone strike. The refinery, which supplies a third of Moscow’s gasoline and is the largest kerosene supplier for its airports, had to shut down its Euro+ oil processing unit.

Outlook —

The Russian push in the Donbas continues to be a significant concern. However, it doesn’t appear that Russian has the capabilities to exploit any break throughs because of equipment and personnel issues. The vast amount of new soldiers are headed for this region in spite of Ukraine operations in Kursk. Russian equation is that Kursk is not as critical as the Russian goals and efforts in Donbas.

Firing shaheds from Belarus? That is the latest reports. It is not surprising since Russian staged part of its initial invasion from Belarus and has fired ballistic missiles from there too. It is unlikely that at this time Ukraine will retaliate and hit Belarus launching areas.

Influx of Iranian missiles into the fight may tip the western allies into letting Ukraine use deep strike capabilities into Russia. With shaheds fired from Belarus Russian may face deeper threats. Russian nuclear threats against attacking its territory have been shown so far to be hollow, so escalating the fight to military staging areas may open up finally for Ukraine.

Poland –

Poland and its neighboring partner countries are obligated to intercept Russian missiles in Ukrainian airspace before they enter NATO airspace. This was stated by Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski. He emphasized that while there are concerns about escalating the conflict, NATO members must ensure their own airspace security, as intercepting missiles over Ukrainian territory is a legitimate act of self-defense to protect civilians from potential harm.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas gives instructions to kill hostages if it appears Israel forces are close to finding and releasing them.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

The spokesperson for Hamas’ armed wing al-Qassam Brigades, Abu Ubaida, announced on Monday that the group has issued new instructions to guards on how to handle hostages if Israeli forces approach their locations in Gaza.
On Sunday, the Israeli military reported the recovery of the bodies of six hostages from a tunnel in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, claiming that Hamas was responsible for their deaths. Ubaida said his group holds Israel responsible for the deaths.

He said the new instructions, which he didn’t detail, were given to guards of hostages after a rescue operation by Israel in June. At that time, Israeli forces freed four hostages in a deadly raid in which dozens of Palestinians, including women and children, were killed.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/hamas-israel-hostages/2024/09/02/id/1178778/#ixzz8kiamznYL

NOTE - the instructions are essentially to kill the hostages if Israel forces close on their positions.

RELATED - Hamas has been releasing ‘final word’ videos of some of the hostages as part of a psyops campaign against Israel.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IDF spokesman: Overnight, fighter jets of the Air Force attacked about ten launchers of the Hezbollah, which posed a threat to the citizens of the State of Israel in the areas of Zabkin and Shehin in southern Lebanon. The strike caused some of the rockets to fire randomly and uncontrollably.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security source to Sky News Arabia: We have observed an increase in Iranian efforts to turn the West Bank into a real battlefield

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi military spokesman: We carried out an operation targeting a ship in the Red Sea after it violated the ban on entering Palestinian ports.

Three ships have been hit in the past week

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

British Defense Minister: We are fully committed to defending Israel
NOTE - this comes after the british announcement that they are suspending sales of 30 kinds of munitions to Israel.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Smaller, preemptive strike hit 10 launch areas preparing for an attack. Hezbollah still not doing well and Israel intel is wining.

Hama’s latest order to kill hostages, combined with ever hardening position that Israel must pull out of all Gaza before any more hostages are released has all but stopped any reasonably productive negotiations. It was already a given that hamas was a bunch of cold blooded killers, the order only confirms that.

Iran (and Hezbollah) have otherwise been relatively quiet. Israel continues to have its way attacking Hezbollah leaders and facilities. Iran has grown quieter, but IMHO, potentially more deadly as I strongly suspect that it is going all out to develop a nuclear bomb. The device is unlikely to be mountable on an existing rocket, but could be deployed by other means, such as a cargo container close to US / western ships, etc, for crude targeting. But to project that threat is has to be pretty clear that they have one.

Forecast includes now pretty much routine search and destroy ops in Gaza and continued exchanges of fire in the north.

Syria -

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces, partnered with Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), captured an ISIS leader, who was assessed as helping ISIS fighters after escape from a Raqqah Detention Facility in Syria. During the early morning hours of Sept. 1, CENTCOM forces and SDF captured Khaled Ahmed al-Dandal, an ISIS facilitator assessed to be aiding efforts of detained ISIS fighters to include recently escaped fighters. Previously, on Aug. 29, five ISIS Foreign Terrorist Fighter detainees (Two Russians, two Afghans, and one Libyan) escaped from the Raqqah Detention Facility. SDF recaptured two escapees: Imam Abdulwahed Akhwan (Russian) and Muhammad Noh Muhammad (Libyan). The search continues for the three who remain at large: Timor Talbrken Abdash (Russian) and Shuab Muhammad Al-Abdli and Atal Khaled Zar (both Afghans).

Turkey –

Two US soldiers were physically assaulted by members of a nationalist youth group in western Turkey.
15 assailants have been detained; the soldiers are now safe, confirmed the US embassy in Turkey.

Members of the Turkish Communist Party TKP organized a demonstration in Izmir calling for the expulsion of the American ship USS Wasp docked in Izmir for joint exercises with the Turkish navy.
The background: the aid given by the US military to Israel “against the Palestinian brothers”.
The protesters announced that they will not leave Izmir until the American ship leaves Turkey.

Venezuela -

The United States has seized Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro’s airplane after determining that its acquisition was in violation of US sanctions, among other criminal issues.

***
A Venezuelan court has granted an arrest warrant for opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia for claiming that he won the country’s recent election

Venezuelan socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro called for him to be arrested

The arrest warrant is for “usurpation” of public functions, “forgery” of a public document, incitement to disobedience, sabotage, and “association” with organized crime and financiers of “terrorism.”

OBSERVATION - Sound similar to what has been happening here?

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.

***
Small protest at Colombia U by pro-hamas hanger-ons Otherwise things are relatively calm and no major protests of the level seen this past spring are on the radar.

There are some internet rumors that there may be a major series of protests around Oct 7 - the one year anniversary of the Hamas atrocity and attack on Israel.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

Almost overlooked this. The end of the FY is approaching and last minute scrambles to get the books right will be ensuing at all levels, private and governmental. By far the greatest item being watched is the decision by the Fed on rates. General consensus is that recent jobs data - including the massive correction - have the Fed looking at least a quarter point reduction. Some analysts I’ve read suggest that if the job numbers for August are weak, the fed may drop for a whole half point. That would make some on wall street happy - more money entering the market. OTOH, it would be admitting that the economy is in worst shape than what they’ve been touting, which could send tremors off in other sectors of the market. The political aspect is all of this will be wrapped up in the mantra of the best economy ever, trying to gaslight the public into voting for harris.

Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Oct 2- 5: International Bird Flu Summit in DC

The state of Kansas filed a lawsuit against Pfizer on Monday, alleging that the pharmaceutical giant misled the public about the safety and effectiveness of its COVID-19 vaccine.

The lawsuit, submitted in the District Court of Thomas County, claims that Pfizer violated the Kansas Consumer Protection Act by making false statements and concealing potential risks.

“Pfizer made multiple misleading statements to deceive the public about its vaccine at a time when Americans needed the truth,” Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach said in a statement.

The lawsuit alleges that shortly after the vaccine’s rollout in early 2021, Pfizer concealed evidence linking the shot to pregnancy complications, including miscarriage, as well as inflammation of the heart and surrounding areas, known as myocarditis and pericarditis.

https://caldronpool.com/kansas-attorney-general-sues-pfizer-for-misleading-kansans-on-covid-vaccine/#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - I remember noting that there were covered up reports regarding pregnancy complications, including miscarriage. It was covered up by pseudo medical speech and pushed to the side as conspiracy theory. Now 4 years down the road and this is no longer conspiracy theory but medically validated facts. Pfizer loses protections granted by the emergency use authorization if it is proven that there is fraud in its presentation of the data. Already, via multiple lawsuits Pfizer is losing that protection, this is another block taken out of the protective wall.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - September 18

Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

Caveat above alert - seeing more pollsters like Nate Silver, demonstrating that harris’ leads are relatively quickly fading and in many cases reverting back to Trump. The massively funded PR campaign by the democrats continue to beat the drum on how well their candidate is doing. Remember, she didn’t even get 1% of the vote in her 2020 bid. How much more lipstick can be put on the pig is yet to be seen.

***
A former deputy chief of staff to New York Gov. Kathy Hochul was charged Tuesday with acting as an undisclosed agent of the Chinese government, federal prosecutors revealed in a sprawling indictment.
Linda Sun, who held numerous posts in New York state government before rising to the rank of deputy chief of staff for Hochul, was arrested Tuesday morning along with her husband at their $3.5 million home on Long Island.

https://www.kcra.com/article/kathy-hochul-aide-charged-chinese-agent/62045002

OBSERVATION - They are burrowed everywhere and we’ve know it for decades. Their technology grabs and political antics a part and parcel to their long game. Leftists here just think they are best buddies - until it turns out they are ready to knife them in the back.

Biden / Harris Watch –

biden excuses himself from campaigning more because the SS says it is ‘safe’ for him to do so? Is this ‘safe’ an outside threat or from his own decaying health and mental conditions.

Illegal Immigration –

Connecticut Law Enforcement are now being warned about the violent Venezualan gang “Tren de Aragua.”

Police reports already confirmed their presence in 11 states and it’s estimated around 1,000 members are in our country illegally.

***
Across New York, recently arrived migrants are flooding the criminal-justice system — at far higher rates than public officials have acknowledged.
Police sources shared with The Post a staggering estimate that as many as 75% of the people they’ve been arresting in Midtown Manhattan in recent months for crimes like assault, robbery and domestic violence are migrants. In parts of Queens, the figure is more than 60%, sources there estimate.
On any given day, Big Apple criminal court dockets are packed with asylum seekers who have run afoul of the law.

https://redstate.com/bobhoge/2024/09/03/thanks-biden-harriscops-estimate-up-to-75-percent-of-manhattan-crimes-committed-by-illegal-immigrants-n2178853#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - NYC has a double whammy. First being a sanctuary city, second the massively liberal DA/courts system. In a growing number of instances, these are multiple repeat offenders. This is what harris et al are wanting for all of america.

***
(FO) The Mexican government’s National Immigration Institute said it will offer escorted bus rides for non-Mexican immigrants from southern Mexico to the U.S. border.
The Biden administration expanded use of the CBP One app to southern Mexico after pressure from the Mexican government.

OBSERVATION - Official arrests on the border have gone down, but it appears totals are going up as these CBP One passes have gone up. Now the flood via this method is guaranteed to go up with the bussing program.

Russia -

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Russia making more threats to use nukes should Ukraine be allowed to use western missiles to strike deeper into Russia.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range and fair.
NOTE - Operationally, the dry season normally begins to transition to the wet fall season and the return to the Ukraine mud - which will severely limit offensive operations - especially those needing to move across open terrain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Karlivka and Prechystivka villages of Donetsk region of Ukraine

Another large missile and drone attack against Ukraine. Russian cruise missiles, launched by Tu-95MS bombers have entered airspace of Ukraine in Chernihiv region, flying towards Kyiv region
Shahed drones are over western and northern regions

Ukrainian air defense shot down 4 of 6 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 3 of 3 Iskander-K cruise missiles, 22 of 29 Shahed drones. Additionally Russia launched 2 Kh-47m2 Kinzhal missiles and 2 Kh-22 missiles

Another 6 shahed drones were lost and fell independently, probably due to EW measures.

Russian missiles attacked the city of Lviv, western Ukraine overnight, says mayor Andriy Sadovyi and Lviv regional administration head Maksym Kozytskyi. 2 people were killed, 19 injured, including 2 children aged 10 and 15; 15 adults hospitalized and 5 are in serious condition.

According to Ukrainian monitoring resources, at least 4 Shahed-type kamikaze drones flew into Belarus last night. One of them disappeared in the north.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Ukraine general estimates that there is about 2-3 weeks remaining in the window of opportunity to seize more ground in Kursk before Russian reinforcements are organized and set in place for defensive operations.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

At Pokrovsk axis clashes yesterday near Zelene Pole, Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolubivka, Novotroyitske, Selidove, Novohrodivka, Hrodivka and Mykhaylivka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports.

Western / Central Ukraine ——

Death toll of Russian missile strikes in Lviv increased to 7 killed, 42 wounded. Rescue operation is ongoing

Outlook —

Russia continues to keep the pressure on with the deep game in the latest missile/drone strikes. This most likely in response to Ukraine’s recent large drone strikes in the Moscow region. The nasty measure of the Russian strikes are that they appear to indiscriminately target civilian buildings such as apartments and hospitals.

Russia seemingly has redoubled its assaults in the Donbas region, and especially the Pokrovsk axis. Ukraine is losing land, though Russian is paying for it in high casualties. Well over 1000 per day. For now Russia seems to be able to backfill the losses, but doing so at a cost to its economy (loss of workers) and it is running out of fighting age people in balance.

For the near term, I don’t expect to see much change. However, should Russian forces reach Pokrovsk, things could get really dicey for Ukraine and they’ll have to make some serious choices.

Belarus -

More stray Shaheds came into the country from the latest Russian missile/drone attack.

Poland –

Poland reported another “tense” night for its air defense systems due to a Russian attack on Ukraine. In response, Polish military forces scrambled their fighter jets.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Negotiations continue for a hostage release and ceasefire. Hamas continues to regress to harder and harder demands.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

After the murder of the abductees, including an American citizen, the US Department of Justice decided to file charges against a number of senior members of the Hamas terrorist organization responsible for the murder and terrorism on October 7th. Ismail Haniyeh (already eliminated); Yahya Sinwar (stays in Gaza); Muhammad Daf (already eliminated); Marwan Issa (already eliminated); Khaled Mashal (stays in Qatar); Ali Bracha (stays in Lebanon)

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Continued search and destroy operations. Regular Israeli forces being given new orders in regards to operating near areas thought to contain hostages. Forces are to attempt to hold back and let Israeli special ops do their thing. This based on the evidence and reports that the latest murdered hostages were killed because Israeli units were operating in close proximity to the tunnel, in addition to captured orders for the execution of hostages should they be located and rescue efforts attempted.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli army: 60 rockets fired from Lebanon towards northern areas since this morning. Damage was caused to property in Kiryat Shmona, authorities say.

Israel has been responding with elevated numbers of artillery and air strikes across S Lebanon.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Continued high tempo Israeli security operations in and around Jenin and other locations.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed targeting the port of Haifa in Israel, Wednesday, September 4, 2024, using drones.

Israeli media: A number of drones were intercepted over Jordanian airspace before entering Israeli territory

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Egypt denounces Israeli PM Netanyahu’s claim that Hamas receives its weapons from Egypt through the Philadelphia Corridor

Saudi Foreign Ministry: We warn of the consequences of provocative Israeli statements in undermining the efforts of Egyptian, Qatari and American mediation. We condemn the Israeli statements regarding the Philadelphi Corridor and the futile attempts to justify the continued Israeli violations of international laws and norms

Palestinian Presidency: We reject the presence of any Israeli forces on the Philadelphi Corridor or the Rafah Crossing

——— FORECAST ————————-

Though Netanyahu is under great pressure to make deep concessions to hamas to earn the release of hostages, the demands go far beyond what Israel can tolerate at this stage in the game. Demanded concessions would only further strengthen Hamas’ hand with the hostages and more than likely encourage them to break the ceasefire agreement to try to force further concessions in exchange of hostages. Contrary to what some liberal media outlets indicate, support for continued operations remain strong.

Hezbollah has been gradually ramping up its rocket attacks over the past few weeks. I suspect that this is in response to Israel’s constant and successful operations taking out Hezbollah leaders and facilities. However, the levels are not that large to really affect Israeli defenses. In fact, they provide Israel with additional intel on launch procedures/warnings, locations and ammo dumps; which they plow back into the targeting process.

Iran’s response has continued to be relatively silent. In part potentially trying to avoid drawing attention to its apparent weakness in responding. I think on the short term they will continue to hold off until some of the US military presence in the region is draw down and if they can lull Israel into a sense of security mindset. I could be wrong on this because from all appearances, Iran has pushed forward with preparation early on, so that any additional actions may well be minimal.

Turkey –

Turkey has formally requested to join the BRICS group of emerging economies, Bloomberg cited informed sources as saying on Monday.

Ankara “seeks to bolster its global influence and forge new ties beyond its traditional Western allies,” the sources said. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes “that the geopolitical center of gravity is shifting away from developed economies” and that the push to join BRICS “reflects its aspirations to cultivate ties with all sides in a multipolar world, while still fulfilling its obligations as a key member of NATO.”

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in early June that BRICS serves as a good alternative to the EU. Later that month, he confirmed that dialogue between Ankara and BRICS nations was ongoing – coming as Turkish frustration continued to grow due to stalled efforts to join the EU.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/09/turkey-formally-requests-to-join-brics-citing-frustration-in-eu-bid/

OBSERVATION - Turkey continues to move away from the west and gravitating towards Russian/China’s political and economic circles. A great deal of this separation is due to the radical islamic principals Erdogan has fostered in the country and his growing desire to become the renewed caliphate of the region.

Central / South America General-

Brazil continues to be a threat to X and free speech / information. It seems that the chief justice’s soft coup may be hitting a wall both internally and externally.

Heads up - Saturday and Sunday posts may be disrupted due to other events going on in my life.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job openings dropped to a 3-1/2-year low in July, suggesting the labor market was losing steam, but probably not enough for the Federal Reserve to consider a big interest rate cut this month.

The data comes ahead of the crucial August non-farm payrolls numbers due on Friday, which could sway bets on the size of the U.S. central bank’s expected rate cut. (Reuters)

***
U.S. economic activity expanded more slowly from mid July through late August and businesses reported less hiring, signals that underscore why the Federal Reserve is set to lower interest rates later this month.

The U.S. central bank’s latest temperature check on the health of the economy also showed that inflation pressures increased at a modest pace.

“Economic activity grew slightly in three Districts, while the number of Districts that reported flat or declining activity rose from five in the prior period to nine in the current period,” the Fed said on Wednesday in the survey known as the “Beige Book,” which polled business contacts across the central bank’s 12 districts through Aug. 26. “Employers were more selective with their hires and less likely to expand their workforces, citing concerns about demand and an uncertain economic outlook.”

The analysis, released roughly every six weeks, comes as Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have made clear they intend to cut interest rates from the current 5.25%-5.50% range, where they have been for more than a year, at their next policy meeting on Sept. 17-18. The only uncertainty is if weakening labor market conditions merit a quarter percentage point cut or a larger-than-normal half percentage point reduction.

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/fed-u-s-economy-beige/2024/09/04/id/1179070/

OBSERVATION - A “soft” job market will place pressure on the Fed to go beyond the 1/4 point reduction in the prime rate. The August non-farms report is likely to push the fed one direction or the other.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - September 18

Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

Lawfare against Trump is resuming in earnest once again.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Thing are building to the debate on the 10th. However, harris is continuing to squabble over some of the rules. Also, it appears that the bulk of the questions are drifting towards subjects harris is weak on, such as the economy.
Harris is also reportedly using the same team that “helped” her prepare for the 2020 presidential debates. We all remember what a dumpster fire that was for her.

China –

China’s consul general in New York has been expelled from the US after a former assistant to the governor of New York was accused of being a foreign agent of the government in Beijing

North/South Korea –

Kim reportedly ordered the deaths of officials following disastrous flooding that killed many in N K.

Russia -

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Putin threatens with attacks against nuclear power plants, as “mirror response to attacks against Kursk and Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant”

The Russian Foreign Ministry has once again warned NATO countries of a ‘painful response’ if Ukraine repeats aggressive actions. Maria Zakharova stated that Russia wants to warn irresponsible politicians in the EU and NATO that if Kyiv undertakes new aggressive or terrorist actions, Moscow’s response will be immediate and extremely painful.

OBSERVATION - Russia has been rattling the nuclear saber for the past three years or so. Over those years, their ‘red lines’ have repeatedly been crossed with no response. If US/NATO green lite use of long range munitions for deep strikes into Russia, will it be enough for Russia to drop a nuke - and all the associated chaos that would bring into Europe.

Ukraine –

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Wild Shahed night. Ukrainian air defense shot down 60 of 78 Shahed drones overnight, 2 more return to Russia, 1 has gone to Belarus, 15 other crashed somewhere.
That ‘somewhere’ appears to be Belarus. At least 8 Shahed-type kamikaze drones flew into Belarus last night – at least two of them were destroyed.
The first group of 2 drones crossed the border with Belarus at around 01:08 and headed for Homiel. Another group of drones continued to enter the airspace of Belarus: at 02:28, 03:10, 06:47, 06:56 and 07:54.
Some of them returned to Ukraine, while others went deep into Belarus, heading for Mazyr, Khoiniki and Brahin.

Fighters of the Belarusian Air Force from Baranavichy were flying over Homiel region and launching missiles, trying to shoot down the drones

It’s known that the drone fell on a brick building of a warehouse in Homiel on Ilyicha pereulok, as a result of which the warehouse caught fire.

***
The military administration in Sumy Oblast plans to evacuate the residents of Hlukhiv, Esman and Svesa of Shostka District, as well as Manukhivka and Ivanivka of Konotop District

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Situation relatively stable ,no reported significant Ukraine gains.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Mandatory evacuation of families with children has been announced in 31 settlements of Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk districts.

Link to figure depicting status on the Pokrovsk axis
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GWoNWlbWQAEZ3wm.jpg

Reports that at least 3 brigades have come in to reinforce against the push towards Pokrovsk. These are veteran units, reequipped and remanned. How they are being deployed is not clear yet, so unknown if they will be a core counter attack force to try to cut off the salient or just reinforce the existing defensive line.

Outlook —

Looks like Ukraine is taking action in Pokrovsk, which suggests that that fighting in that area will see a substantial increase. Over the past week Russian losses have increased by several hundred beyond the general 1000-1200 reported daily. Going along with this is an increase in loss of Russian armor and other pieces of equipment. How close is Russia to overextending its resources in Pokrovsk? Not certain, since they continue to press forward, but at the current loss rate, they will be running out soon.

Depending on how soon Russia can get Iranian missiles to the battle zone and in any amounts, it looks like Russia is switching back to relying on Shahed drones for its deep game. Key to watch out for are initial use of Iranian missiles. Could give clue as to when Russia’s next big missile attacks will start occurring.

Europe / NATO General –

Lithuania installed new ‘dragon teeth’ anti-tank barriers along the Nemunas river facing Kaliningrad, Russia.

OBSERVATION - Baltic nations are justifiably concerned that Russia has them in the cue to be next after Ukraine.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Hamas rejects latest ceasefire / hostage efforts.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

The IDF found the shaft to the tunnel in which the bodies of the hostages Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Eden Yerushalmi, Carmel Gat, Almog Sarusi, Alexander Lobanov, and Ori Danino, were found Saturday in a children’s yard, the IDF reported on Wednesday.

In a published video, a soldier explained that the IDF received clear intelligence about the location of the tunnel shaft, leading the IDF to operate in that precise location.

“As you can see, the tunnel was hidden in a child’s yard, a place where a child should be safe, and not used as a human shield for Hamas,” the soldier said in the video.

***
Hamas in a statement issued overnight between Wednesday and Thursday rejected any new cease-fire proposals, and claimed that Netanyahu’s insistence on staying on the Philadelphi Corridor was intended to thwart a deal. “Pressure must be put on Netanyahu and his government and they must be bound to what was agreed upon,” Hamas said in a statement, “We warn against falling into Netanyahu’s trap and tricks, as he uses negotiations to prolong the aggression against our people.”

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Overnight, Israeli attack helicopters carried out an airstrike on Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror operatives at a command center embedded within the Israeli-designated humanitarian zone in central Gaza, the Israeli army says. The strike took place in the Deir al-Balah area

***
Israel is in the process of setting up defensive sites all along the Philadelphi corridor indicating that they are not planning on leaving any time soon.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah launched in excess of 80 - 100 rockets yesterday, with some damage reported. The largest attack occurred around noon, when 65 rockets were launched in a short time toward the Upper Galilee region near the city of Kiryat Shmona. Most of the rockets landed in open areas, sparking several fires.

The IAF responded by striking over ten Hezbollah launchers and military infrastructure sites that posed a threat to the citizens of Israel in the areas of Jibbain, Zawtar El Charqiyeh, and Ramia in southern Lebanon.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Continued high tempo Israeli security operations in and around Jenin and other locations.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Hezbollah is continuing to maintain a relatively high rate of rocket fire. Largely ineffective, inviting far more effective Israeli artillery and airstrikes on its facilities and other sites. Overall, Hezbollah is getting the worst of the exchanges.

Gaza continues with search and destroy operations. Israel determination to maintain control of the Philadelphi corridor indicates that they will not allow further arms and material smuggling in from Egypt. This tactic is designed to strangle Hamas of the war materials it needs.

Iran remains like a dormant volcano - we know that at some time it will act, but the exact nature, timing and extent of that action is still obscured.

Iran –

Senior Iranian military officials have continued messaging that they will retaliate for Israel killing Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.

Black Swans -

Solar activity continues to intensify. In August 2024, the average monthly sunspot number exceeded 200 for the first time in 23 years, almost doubling the official forecast.

The current solar cycle (Solar Cycle 25) wasn’t expected to be this strong. When it began in Dec. 2019, experts predicted it would be weak like its immediate predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 may be on pace to rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century. Already in May 2024 we have experienced a century-class geomagnetic storm with auroras sighted in the South Pacific, central America and south Africa.

The last time sunspot counts were this high, in Sept.-Dec. 2001, the sun was winding up to launch the Great Halloween Storms of ‘03, which included the strongest X-ray solar flare ever recorded (X45) and a CME so potent it was felt by Voyager at the edge of the solar system. A repeat is not guaranteed, but current sunspot counts tell us it’s possible.

https://spaceweather.com/
OBSERVATION - The potential threats by nature seem to be pushed aside with all the other violence and political chaos going on. This current cycle was expected to be a replica of the Maunder Minimum, a very low sunspot count. As we see, the sun had different ideas and now has become VERY active. Just how dangerous this may develop is uncertain. We could have anywhere from 15 hours to several day warnings of a major coronal plasma ejection that could disrupt electrical grids across the globe.

Not just the sun, earthquakes, hurricanes, etc all pose potential for massive disasters. Just image the “BIG ONE” hitting in this current political cycle! Readiness cannot focus only on one item, but best if designed to be relatively broad spectrum enough to address other threats.

As usual, life happens and my plans for yesterday and today got washed out by a spat of the flu. Fortunately it seems to be of the 24 hour variety, though still putting up with some aftermath symptoms. I may be able to get a post out on Sunday as well.

Terrorism - Moderate THREAT as of Sep 2, 2024

And we now know why this has quickly dropped off the media’s radar. CNN reports that Colt Gray, the Georgia high school mass shooter, allegedly posted on his Discord account in 2023 expressing a desire to kill and frustrations over transgender issues and acceptance.

***
A Pakistani man living in Canada has been arrested on charges of plotting to carry out an attack on Jews in New York City, the Justice Department said Friday.

Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, 20, also known as Shahzeb Jadoon, was arrested on Wednesday on charges filed in the United States, the department said.

“The defendant is alleged to have planned a terrorist attack in New York City around October 7 of this year with the stated goal of slaughtering, in the name of (the Islamic State), as many Jewish people as possible,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement.

Khan was taken into custody by Canadian authorities in the town of Ormstown some 12 miles from the U.S.-Canada border.
The Justice Department said it will seek his extradition from Canada.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/pakistani-canada-oct-7/2024/09/06/id/1179406/

OBSERVATION - There has been a lot of rumors concerning a pro-hamas action on Oct 7 that could involve terror attacks in addition to mass demonstrations. Monitoring.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

The August jobs report came in far weaker than expected — as the previous two months’ numbers are revised DOWN (again).

Employers added 142,000 jobs in August, continuing a labor market cooling trend that has stoked fears that interest rates have been high for too long.
The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 percent.

Buried within the data is very disturbing information on who is benefitting from the jobs created. Since October 2019, native-born US workers have lost 1.4 million jobs; over the same period foreign-born workers have gained 3 million jobs.

**
(FO) According to the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Purchasing Managers Index, U.S. manufacturing contracted for a fifth consecutive month in August.
According to comments in the ISM report, industries expect the contraction of U.S. manufacturing to continue, and do not expect a rebound until after the November election.

***
Economists largely agree that the labor market is “cooling,” but one recruiting industry veteran says that is a significant understatement.
Brian Howard is the founder and president of the Howard Group, a boutique search firm located in Overland Park, Kansas, that has been in business for more than 30 years, which companies hire to recruit candidates in an array of white-collar positions.

He said the job market is in “bad shape.”

Howard told FOX Business in an interview that he noticed signs of weakening about two years ago that became evident roughly 18 months ago, and he said the market has been slow to poor for the last 10 to 12 months.

https://truthrepublican.com/us-job-market-in-bad-shape-executive-recruiter-says/

OBSERVATION - A lot of going back and forth on the latest job figures. BoA analysts say it is evidence of the so called ‘soft landing’. Others note the continued reduction in employment numbers from previous months, showing a substantially softer market. The politically minded Fed wants desperately to avoid anything resembling a recession prior to the elections. The August numbers were far below projections, and as I’ve said, likely will be revised downward next month. Many analysts place this squarely into recession territory. If the Fed drops the rate by more than a quarter point, it will be an admission that their policy has likely brought us to a recession.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - September 18

Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

New York Judge Juan Merchan just postponed President Trump’s September 18th sentencing until after the election, moving it to November 26th.

RELATED - Kamala Harris’s most recent FEC filing shows she paid Judge Juan Merchan’s daughter’s political firm for services.
Juan Merchan is the far-left, conflicted judge who oversaw Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s Stormy Daniels ‘hush money’ trial against President Trump.

The judge’s daughter, Loren Merchan, is a far-left political operative who worked for the Biden-Harris campaign.

Loren Merchan’s firm, Authentic Campaigns, Inc., has received tens of millions of dollars from Democrats who want to take down Trump.

GOP Congresswoman Elise Stefanik said Kamala Harris paid Loren Merchan’s company!

“Today I filed a new judicial ethics complaint with the New York State Commission because new evidence on Kamala Harris’ most recent FEC filing shows she hired and paid Acting Justice Juan Merchan’s adult daughter’s company,” GOP Congresswoman Elise Stefanik announced on Friday.

“This is a clear violation of the New York State Judicial Code of Conduct which dictates that a judge must recuse from a case where a relative up to and including the sixth degree has a financial interest in the outcome of the case,” she said.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/new-fec-filing-reveals-kamala-harris-paid-judge/

OBSERVATION - These are the same democrats demanding ‘ethics’ from the USSC, yet sweeping actions like this under the rug.

Biden / Harris Watch –

harris and walz continue to face plant into clearly identifiable lies over the past week. With increasing numbers of polls showing her cinderella lead over trump evaporating, she is under considerable stress to perform above expectations in the debate next week. If she performs poorly, pundits think she’ll find some excuse to bail on the second debate and revert to a basement campaign to avoid any unscripted interactions with the press.

Illegal Immigration –

Unconfirmed report that illegal gangs have been targeting the oil industry to steal items that can be resold for various purposes.

***
Democrat gov of Colorado appeared to have back pedaled on the Venezuelan gang takeovers in Aurora, going back to his original claims that such reports are ‘conspiracy’ oriented.

Russia -

Logistics –

WSJ: US has told allies that Iran has sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. So far, hundreds sent. Sanctions being worked up by U.S., EU and partners
NOTE - these missiles are reportedly based on the older SCUD-2 design.

Ukraine –

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Yesterday Ukrainian air defense shot down 27 of 44 Shahed drones, some lost/crashed, some are unaccounted for.
Overnight Ukrainian air defense shot down 58 Shahed drones overnight

Ukrainian Azov brigade launched counterattack at New York axis, and retook part of the town.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Ukrainian special operation forces have destroyed a column of Russian military in Budky village of Kursk region.

Numerous other strikes hitting Russian pontoon bridges.

Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -

Reports that Russia may have established a small bridge head across the canal to the north east of Chasiv Yar. Earlier this summer, Russia managed to get across the canal on the southeast margin of the town but were eventually pushed back.

Russian Territory –

Road Voronezh-Luhansk closed due to explosions at ammunition depot in Soldatskoye village of Ostrogozhsk district. This following a drone strike that set off massive secondary explosions that went on for hours. The village of Soldatskoye was also evacuated.

Outlook —

The Pokrovsk offensive may be on the verge of stalling out. Fresh Ukranian units - combat savvy ones at that, are launching local counter attacks . Russia may finally be seeing the impact of the loss of units stripped off and sent to Kursk.

Kursk is relatively stabilized with Ukraine still managing to out maneuver the Russian forces and gain local tactical advantages.

Russia’s stockpile of Shahed drones must be pretty substantial, as they’ve been throwing a lot of them at Ukraine lately. They’ve also become a headache for Belarus as a number of them have strayed into Belarus during each attack over the past week.

Watching for first clear use of the missiles Iran is reportedly sent to Russia. These missiles based off older SCUD designs are shorter range that more modern Russian missiles. Reality and accuracy are questionable. Original non-nuclear SCUDS were generally an areal weapon, not one with any accuracy. Target a city - ok, but smaller tactical targets - well you had to be lucky. I assume Iran has retrofitted the design to have more modern guidance systems.

Belarus -

At least 8 drones, 7 Shahed drones and 1 Supercam reconnaissance drone, have entered airspace of Belarus overnight. 1 drone reached as far as Navahrudak town of Hrodna region

OBSERVATION - I wonder to the cause of so many Shahed drones getting lost into Belarus. Is it poor target programming or more successful GPS jamming / spoofing. The loss of a Supercam suggests the latter.

ISRAEL –

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

A document on Hamas head Yahya Sinwar’s computer revealed the terror group’s strategy for thwarting negotiations, tarnishing Israel’s image, wearing out the Jewish state militarily, and exerting psychological pressure through abuse of hostages.

The German newspaper Bild published an exclusive report on the document, which was verified by two independent sources.

The document indicated that one of Hamas’s main objectives was “exhausting” Israel’s army, and it doesn’t seek a quick end to the war regardless of the effect on Gazan civilians.

In addition, the terror group discusses ways to mistreat hostages and exert psychological pressure on their families and the media.

The document indicated that, even in the event of a ceasefire agreement, Hamas would continue to find ways to extend the war and re-arm.

“During the negotiations for the second phase (of the ceasefire, ed.), Hamas will allow the Red Cross to visit some of the prisoners as a gesture of goodwill and to convey messages to their relatives,” the document said; however, this concession was intended to increase pressure on Israel to extend the ceasefire and not resume military action.

The document recommended further complicating negotiations, regardless of the costs to Palestinian civilians. “Important clauses in the deal should be improved upon, even if negotiations continue over a longer period of time.”

The terror group will extend the conflict even though its “military capacity has been weakened.”

https://worldisraelnews.com/hamas-document-reveals-negotiation-sabotage-and-psychological-warfare-tactics/

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Continued search and destroy operations and air/artillery strikes on Hamas groups.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The Israeli army says it bombed a Hezbollah weapons depot in the town of Blida, south of Lebanon

Overnight, a barrage of five rockets was fired from Lebanon at the Safed area a short while ago, according to the Israeli army. Two Burkan rockets were included. The rockets struck open areas, the military adds. There are no injuries.

During the night the IDF attacked more than 15 Hezbollah launchers and military infrastructure in southern Lebanon; some of the launchers that were attacked were ready for immediate launch into the northern Israel.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syria: Reports that a truck vehicle was targeted with a precision airstrike earlier today near Al-Bukamal in northeast Syria. All indications are this was likely a drone strike against IRGC weapons movements.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israel has announced the Jenin operation is over after 10 days. Israeli army says it killed 14 militants, arrested more than 30 during the operation. Operations will resume should terror activity resume.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

U.S. Central Command: In the past 24 hours, U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) forces successfully destroyed one Iranian-backed Houthi uncrewed aerial vehicle and one support vehicle in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen

——— FORECAST ————————-

Situation in Gaza remains dynamic in that an Israeli operation can spin up in a very short period. So far Israel is content to deal with Hamas et al by air strikes.

The trend for hezbollah is increasing baseline rocket launches towards Israel. We are now approaching an average of over 100 per day. On the flip side, Israel’s intel has been exceptional in providing time sensitive, actionable intel allowing IAF to hit launch sites with the rockets still in their launchers. Over night was the third occurrence in the past week. Of course, moving the rockets to the launch sites also opens up locating ammo depots, which Israel has obligingly been taking out as well.

Unconfirmed reports that Israel is in the final stages of preparations to enter S Lebanon are increasing. Fundamental point is that Israel cannot maintain a defensive posture and win against Hezbollah, that offense is the best defense. Many have been stating that this ground action has been in the plans and likely to kick off this fall. Action in Gaza has lowered to the extent that operations there would not excessively bleed resources for a Lebanon invasion.
A lot has to do with the US elections. Trump has expressed support to Israel, while harris (and biden) is a crypto-pro hamas supporter. The nearly one year war has impacted Israel’s economy with so many reservists called to duty, business are running short handed, and their families struggling. The drivers are for a sooner than later attack.

Iran remains the dormant volcano. Should they continue to delay, and Israel launches a Lebanese operation, they may be pushed into launching missile/drone attacks - at the risk of all the bad things Israel could do with just a few resources to them.

Iraq -

The United States and Iraq have reached an understanding on plans for the withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces from Iraq, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.

The plan, which has been broadly agreed but requires a final go-ahead from both capitals and an announcement date, would see hundreds of troops leave by September 2025, with the remainder departing by the end of 2026, the sources said.

“We have an agreement, its now just a question of when to announce it,” a senior U.S. official said.

The U.S. and Iraq are also seeking to establish a new advisory relationship that could see some U.S. troops remain in Iraq after the drawdown.

The U.S. has approximately 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in neighboring Syria as part of the coalition formed in 2014 to combat Islamic State as it rampaged through the two countries.

https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/u-s-iraq-troops/2024/09/06/id/1179344/

OBSERVATION - This will impact US/coalition bases in Syria as Iraq has been the support base for those anti ISIS operations. This may result in some serious changes in operations in Syria.

Misc of Note –

Alternative communications are critical in any disaster scenario. We rely too heavily upon the internet for info and comms that may well fail in any kind of situation - as well as loss of cell comms which rely upon an internet interface to some extent.

I break these requirements into two categories - passive and active comms.

Passive comms include standard, battery powered AM/FM radios for local news as well as short wave radios for glimpses of what is happening nationally and internationally. Timely local news can save your life.
Scanners used to be a biggie for passive comms, but police / fire have locally gone to more digital operations that are further encrypted.

Active comms include the tried and true CB radio, ham radio and the growing GMRS radio groups. Buried in this are the shorter range (and don’t believe their claims of long-range) little walkie talkies. CB’s with a good antenna at permitted power (4 watts) can reach 10 miles or more, those with side band can go farther.

Hams are multi band and capable of a lot of option due to the authorized high power. Local repeaters in the 2 meter band extend comms over a wide range. HF comms can reach 2500 miles or more.

Let me make one note here no Ham comms - they can double as a passive method for those who don’t have a license to operate It is not illegal to own or use them to listen to traffic, only illegal to transmit ( with an exception for am emergency life or death situation).

I’ve just passed my General License requirements and will be entering the HF realm in the next few months. I will not post my call sign here because those calls are searchable on the FCC website and would reveal too much about who I am.

Preparedness is more than beans, bullets, bugout and bandaids folks. Think your situation through and how you would stay in contact with your loved ones and support groups in the event of a disaster of any kind.

Had the fever hit for a second time overnight. The only other time I’ve experienced this was when i likely had wuhan in 2020. Doing better this morning, but moving kinda slow.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

Another point on this past weeks jobs report - govt jobs once again dominated. The least productive sector.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - September 18

Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****

I noted a new axiom because the NYT has come out with its first major national poll showing trump holding a 1 point lead among likely voters. Again, skewed by kalifornia and NY (among other major, predominantly urbanized states).

Biden / Harris Watch –

biden has taken the equivalent of 40 years worth of vacations (for the average joe don’t you know) in the 4 yrs in the WH.

Russia -

*****
Putin has shrugged off the Kursk operation, saying it does nothing to impact his more strategic goal to seize and control all of the Donbas.

Ukraine –

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 15 Shahed drones and a Kh-59 missile overnight

Warehouses with ammunition in the Voronezh region are still detonating. Several hundred NK ballistic KN-23 missiles were now believed to have been stored there.

The Ukrainian 53rd mechanized brigade managed to recaptured the centre of New-York after it was recently occupied by Russian forces. Unconfirmed reports are that the advance of Ukrainian troops in this sector continues

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

No significant gains reported.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

No significant gains reported

Outlook —

Some have noted that at the rate of land capture from this spring/summer Russian offensive, it would take 8 years for Russian to capture all of the remaining Donbas region. There are no evidences of any potential breakouts that would change that assessment. It is very unlikely that Russia has the resources for 8 more years in the meat grinder.

Continued grind along the fronts with nothing significant forseeable. It looks like the Russian missile/drone offensive is on the decline. The next surge may occur once iranian missiles are in country and dispersed to launching locations.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- large protests calling for a ceasefire at any cost in Tel Aviv.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

Tens of thousands filled the streets of Tel Aviv calling for Israel to concede to Hamas demands for the release of hostages and to end the war.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Continued search and destroy operations.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

More than 50 rockets were launched from Lebanon at the Galilee Panhandle and Kiryat Shmona area overnight, the Israeli army says. Some 20 rockets were fired at around 1 a.m. and 2:30 a.m., with the Israeli army reporting that most of the projectiles were intercepted by air defenses, although some some impacted Kiryat Shmona, causing damage. At around 5:30 a.m., a barrage of another 30 rockets were fired from Lebanon, according to the military, which says that some were intercepted and the remainder hit open areas.

***
The Lebanese PM told Al-Jazeera that Israel had passed messages to the Lebanese government that in the event of a ceasefire in Gaza, Israel is NOT interested in also pursuing a ceasefire with Hezbollah. The secret negotiations that the Americans have been running have made zero progress, and Hezbollah is not interested in withdrawing from the border whatsoever.

Israel will have to move them back to the Litani River with a military operation, the timing of which is TBD.

***
Amid ongoing, daily attacks by Hezbollah against Israel, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi warned the terror group that the army is “preparing for offensive moves” inside Lebanon.
Halevi’s threatening statement came during his latest tour of the northern border on Israel’s Golan Heights. “The IDF is very focused on fighting Hezbollah. I think that the number of attacks in the last month, operatives killed, rockets destroyed, infrastructure destroyed, is very large,” Halevi said.
The IDF announced on Friday that over 50 airstrikes last week targeted Hezbollah buildings, infrastructure, weapon depots and rocket launchers in Lebanon.

https://allisrael.com/idf-is-focused-on-fighting-hezbollah-preparing-offensive-actions-in-lebanon-idf-chief-warns

———WEST BANK——————————-

A Jordanian terrorist entered Israel, opening fire and killing three people at the Allenby crossing into Israel. He was ‘neutralized’ by Jordanian (?) forces.
Israeli Army Radio: The army imposes a security cordon on the city of Jericho following the shooting attack at the Allenby crossing

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi claim the downing of another MQ-8 recon drone overnight. This would be the 8th (?) one lost in the past year.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Tempo of attacks/counter strikes between Hezbollah and Israel continue to increase. While an Israeli move into S Lebanon does not appear imminent, it is coming soon as Israel cannot sustain the current status quo tit for tat.

In Gaza, Israel continues to allow hamas to regather and are then quickly exterminated by airstrikes or ground raids.

Iran is still dormant, and may likely seek a terror assassination strike versus a direct military strike on Israel as the way to save face and get their revenge. But even on that aspect, they are appearing to have problems as international intel agencies are keep efforts at bay.

I can’t believe we are still playing around with the Houthi. We have the capability to bomb them back to the stone age and it should have been done months ago.

Turkey –

𝐓𝐮𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐲’𝐬 𝐄𝐫𝐝𝐨𝐠𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐈𝐬𝐥𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 𝐈𝐬𝐫𝐚𝐞𝐥

“The only step that will stop Israel is the alliance of Islamic countries,” Erdogan said at an event near Istanbul.

Erdogan recently improved ties with Egypt and Syria, who share a border with Israel.

Venezuela -

Opposition sources confirm to Caracas Chronicles that Edmundo González Urrutia was granted a safe passage by the Maduro regime and left the country after being granted asylum in Spain. He is currently flying to Madrid.

***
Venezuelan security forces surrounded the Argentine embassy in the capital Caracas on Friday after two opposition members took refuge inside, according to posts by the opposition on social media.
The pair joined four other Venezuelan opposition figures who have taken refuge in the embassy this year.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/07/americas/venezuelan-security-forces-surround-argentine-embassy-intl/index.html

OBSERVATION - There is a saying “you can’t vote your way out of tyranny”. Here is a prime example.

Finally got a reasonable night’s sleep :)

Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future

(End of the American Dream)—The UN wants much more control over global affairs, and “the Pact for the Future” which is scheduled to be adopted during “the Summit of the Future” that will be held on September 22nd and 23rd will go a long way toward making that a reality. But even though “the Summit of the Future” is just days away, hardly anyone is talking about it and the mainstream media is almost entirely ignoring it. Enormous decisions that could dramatically affect the future of everyone on the entire planet are about to be made, and just about the entire population has absolutely no idea what is going on.

This is exactly how the globalists like it. They don’t want the general population to even be aware of their agenda as they relentlessly push it forward. . . .

One of the most disturbing things about “the Pact for the Future” is that it appears to give the UN a central role during any future “global shocks”…

The 3rd draft of the Pact for the Future was released on August 27 and is currently being reviewed by UN member states. This draft continues the discussion around “global shocks” and how these shocks will require a global response.

For example, one section titled “We will strengthen the international response to complex global shocks”, states that there is a need for a “coordinated and multidimensional international response to complex global shocks and the central role of the United Nations in this regard.”

The UN defines “complex global shocks” as events that “have severely disruptive and adverse consequences for a significant proportion of countries and the global population”. These shocks would require a “multidimensional multistakeholder, and whole of government, whole of society response.”

For a moment, try to imagine what it would be like for the UN to be calling the shots during the next global pandemic.

I don’t think that is something that any of us want.

During a “global shock”, apparently the UN would be granted emergency powers “for a finite period”…

“These potential shocks would necessitate the activation of “emergency platforms” which could grant the UN more power to respond to these apparent emergencies. The document says the UN will present member states with “protocols for convening and operationalizing emergency platforms based on flexible approaches to respond to a range of different complex global shocks”.

While the UN claims these emergency platforms will only be “convened for a finite period”, and will not be a standing institution or entity with respect to national sovereignty, critics of the UN fear that these emergency platforms will be seized upon and used to grant the UN new legal powers.

If the Pact for the Future is adopted, the UN will be the one to determine when a “global shock” occurs.

And the UN would also be the one to determine when it should be granted emergency powers and for how long those emergency powers should be in force. Needless to say, this is a nightmare waiting to happen.

https://americafirstreport.com/most-have-no-idea-that-the-summit-of-the-future-will-create-un-2-0-on-september-22nd-and-23rd/

OBSERVATION - Much like the usurpation of national authority the WHO’s finagling of the treaty with the insertion of its globalist control agenda, the UN is manipulating the similar treaties to leverage global control over these ambitious “global shocks” (hint - WEF just recently put out a report of pending “global shocks” - coincidence?) All of this is setting the stage for the real global attack - either by virus/disease, war or some other ‘global’ catastrophe.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.

***
Hard to place some of these illegal related issue because they span several topic areas, but I’ll place the following here because they relate to the growing CW2 pressures.

Venezuelan gangs are turning parts of US cities into no-go zones. Now we have 20k of Haitians turning Springfield Ohio into a little Haiti. Residents are pleading to the local govt to get control of their visitors - who are out killing pets, geese at the local park, trashing the city etc -acting like . . . . well Haitians.

Like the Venezuelans and other groups who’ve illegal come to America, they have little interest in adapting to our culture or appreciating our society - only interested in what they can get for free. It won’t take much before some areas self defense groups (which the leftists will call vigilantes) form to push back these hordes. Now place into the picture a trump victory in November and he moves to mass deport these illegals. They are already prone to violence and lawlessness (they are being allowed to essentially get away with anything now) as forces come to round them up - you think they will go peacefully? And they’ll have allies in Antifa and other communist/socialist elements. And it will go down hard - to the point that citizens in metro areas where these illegals are concentrated will face the wrath of these rampaging illegals. And in smaller towns like Springfield (pop around 60K) where the regime has deliberately imported them, even rural areas are threatened.

As a commentator at the “burning platform” clearly noted “This is all coming to a head like a giant pustule, and it’s going to burst. “ - especially if harris loses. There will no longer be any restraints.

***
Interesting view on wilderwealthwise this morning in regards to Merchan’s sudden change of sentencing of trump over the bogus inditement.
“If Trump wins the election, the prospect of jailing the president-elect of the United States becomes such a high-stakes game that I think Juan will blink and sentence him to probation for a month. Jailing the president-elect is a de facto declaration of Civil War 2.0. That would make a very, very long winter for New York City without electricity and gas and would result in the place looking worse than it did in Escape From New York.”

https://wilderwealthywise.com/

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

Economy remains one of, if not the top issue in the presidential campaign. A lot boils down to if the Fed (under some degree of regime direction) has let the economy deflate to the point of the nasty “r” word - recession.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

This is do or die week for harris and her debate with Trump. One has to keep scuttlebutt at bay, but with all the reports that she is flailing with debate prep and demands for last minute changes to rules suggest two scenarios - 1) These ‘leaks’ are designed to drastically lower the expectation bar - even though her big propaganda has been cranking out how good a debater she is - and 2) Things are really going south for her.

***
House Republicans released a continuing resolution (CR) that would fund the government until 28 March 2025, and includes the SAVE Act and some additional requests from the White House.
Lawmakers have just 21 days to come to an agreement to keep the government open before the Sept. 30 funding deadline.

Schumer is threatening a govt shutdown over the addition of the SAVE act.

Chickens playing in the road.

OBSERVATION - Back from the dead, the CR has risen its ugly head. A real budget is a no go at this stage of the election cycle and republicans currently have some leverage over the democrats as far as the PR goes. A shut down won’t help schumer at this stage.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Even some shock being expressed by elements of the MSM that biden has spent over 40% of his time on vacation.

Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Sep 1, 2024

(FO) According to a joint cybersecurity advisory, the FBI, National Security Agency (NSA), and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) assess that Russian General Staff Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) Unit 29155 hackers are targeting global and U.S. critical infrastructure.
According to the advisory, Unit 29155 has conducted numerous hacks against NATO members in Europe, the U.S., and countries in central Asia and Latin America with the goal of disrupting military aid to Ukraine.

Illegal Immigration –

See CW2 above.

Russia -

Logistics –

Western intel sources state Iran has sent over 200 Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. These missiles, with a range of up to 120 km, are expected to target Ukrainian infrastructure, cities like Kharkiv and Sumy, and military positions along the frontline such as Pokrovsk.

Both Russia and Iran (IRGC) are denying that any missiles have been shipped to Russia. But then they initially made the same claims about the Shahed drones.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range, fair but with scattered light rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Relatively slow in the missile / drone side overnight. Ukrainian air defense shot down 6 Shahed drones and 2 Kh-59/69 missiles overnight

Ukraine forces have pushed further into New York and reclaimed territory lost to Russia.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

A direct hit destroyed the last remaining bridge in the Kursk region. The footage shows the spectacular end of one of the three bridges over the Seym River near the village of Karizh. Ukraine has also been taking out the numerous pontoon bridges Russian has attempted to install to replace these bridges.

There are claims that Russia is mounting a counter attack in the region, but there are no collaboration evidence of such an action.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian attacks increasing along the southern side of the salient in what appears to be an attempt to enclose a Ukrainian pocket that has developed and trap forces there in. Ukraine reportedly in the process of making a staged withdrawal to prevent such an occurrence.

Outlook —

Russian missile / drone attacks have really ebbed overnight and may reflect a slowdown in order to restore stocks for the next big blitz. Similar to Ukraine attacks are down. Fight on the front lines is relatively static with minor gains in some places in the Donbas region.

Unconfirmed reports that Russia has scraped 50K troops to defend Kursk. However, it appears from putin’s commentary that he isn’t placing a high priority on this operation.

Rains are starting to appear on the weather forecasts so military planners and tacticians on both sides should be making plans and positioning for when the ground turns to gumbo.

Finally, under Europe / NATO General below, Russia is having a growing problem with stray Shahed drones and eventually this will result in a major incident. They have intruded into at least three NATO countries (Latvia, Poland and Romania), Moldova and Belarus.

Europe / NATO General –

Yesterday, a Russian drone crashed in Latvia’s Rezekne region. The Latvian Ministry of Defense reported that the drone, which entered Latvian airspace from Belarus, is under investigation to determine the exact circumstances of the incident.

Russian suicide drone violated Romanian airspace. Romanian fighter jets were scrambled but the drone took a turn toward the Black Sea after penetrating 75 km and left Romania

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel hit major Hezbollah/IRGC facility in Syria

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

Hamas: We are committed to our demands to permanently stop the war and completely withdraw from Gaza, and these are clear demands.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Continued search and destroy operations.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Overnight, Israeli fighter jets struck several sites and a rocket launcher belonging to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon’s Kafr Kila, Taybeh, Hanine, and Yarine, the Israeli army says.A separate strike yesterday in Khirbet Selm targeted a building used by Hezbollah, the military adds.

Hezbollah continues to fire rockets into N Israel. Israel continues to reply with air and artillery strikes.

Israeli PM says he has instructed the military to prepare for battle in north. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that he instructed the IDF to prepare to change the situation in the north after nearly a year of Hezbollah rocket fire. “This situation cannot continue and we are committed to returning the residents of the north safely to their homes,” he said. Netanyahu also said he was considering measures to combat increased terrorism in the West Bank including building a barrier along the eastern border.

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israel hit a Syrian facility used by Iran for chemical arms production, described as one of the largest in recent years.

Reports so far of 5 Killed and 15 Injured as a result of last night’s Israeli airstrikes on the Scientific Studies and Research Center, which has previously been used by the Syrian Army and Iranian-Backed Forces to produce chemical weapons, surface-to-surface, and surface-to-air missiles, near the city of Masyaf within the Hama Governorate in Northwestern Syria.

Sky News Arabic: “The research center in Masyaf was manned by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and has suffered enormous damage.” Reports that many of the sites struck are IRGC and Hezbollah.

Reuters sources: The military research center that was bombed in Syria includes a team of Iranian military experts

———WEST BANK——————————-

PA wants UN to order removal of 500,000 Jews from Judea and Samaria The resolution is expected to be brought to a vote at the U.N. General Assembly, which is scheduled to open on Sept. 10. The Palestinian Authority is circulating a draft resolution asking the United Nations General Assembly to urge Israel to withdraw from Judea and Samaria and remove some 500,000 Israeli citizens living in the territory within six months.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Palestinian Jordanians were celebrating passing out candy and fruits as well as shooting off fireworks over the murder of three Israelites at the Allenby crossing this weekend.

Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister: We reject any attempt at demographic or regional change in the Gaza Strip

——— FORECAST ————————-

It seems that Israel has likely set a “D-day” for the ground invasion of S Lebanon. This assessment is also supported by the announced plans to start next level security plans in Gaza and scaling back direct military action. Time is pressing now on Israel and I’m initially thinking that sometime in October is the likely window. Probably the first half. Israel has had plans ready for years and have had time to refine them the past 10 months during the course of the low intensity conflict.

Leadership wise, at a high level, Hezbollah is hurting having lost a lot of senior commanders. On a smaller scale, there may be some skilled and motivated smaller unit commanders, however, reestablishment of the chain of command to coordinate those smaller units will result in gaps and units being defeated in detail.

Israel also has a window of opportunity as Iran currently appears to be inclined to let Hezbollah go it alone. Iran’s nuclear program as this stage is likely at too delicate a stage to act in a way that would invite Israeli strikes.

Iran –

Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, on Iran’s nuclear program: “We have lost the “continuity of knowledge” regarding the production and development of centrifuges, rotors, blowers, heavy water, and uranium-lead concentration.
Translation: we know nothing about the Iranian nuclear program. (Amir Tsarfati)

Misc of Note –

Just a few other thoughts about the impact of trump’s mass deportation may have on the country. I think of a domino effect that the democrats have set up with the massive illegal immigration of the past 4 years. We saw a small portion of that capability with the blm/antifa riots in 2020. With 12+ million new illegals (plus the millions before) the democrats may push the button to trigger the doomsday plot to overthrow trump via violence - the deportation riots. Fueled by such a large illegal body and guided/instigated by the antifa elements, such riots could dwarf 2020 by an order of magnitude.

Remember - democrats are willing to burn down the country as long as they can rule over the ashes.

This potential scenario will also be tied to democrat claims of a ‘stolen’ election. Immediate pushback will be expected by those on the right who are not in the mood for this nonsense. The explosion of deportation riots will be tied in some manner to a disputed election.

I would also expect that following the election thru to inauguration day, antifa (fueled by democrats and leftists funds and support) will have a renewed cause to riot. These riots will be used as a recruiting method to start pulling in the illegals via fears of deportation.

We already know that major metro areas will be ground zero for many of these riots. Smaller towns like Springfield OH will be hammered hard as well. Potential millions of rioters will easily overwhelm local police and even National guard, forcing active duty forces into the fray. This time around, the rioters will be armed and very willing to shoot. Martial law maybe declared before January to not only try to keep some of the genie in but prevent Trump’s swearing in. (this scenario offered by the left to stop the massive violence if trump is prevented from being president is not too absurd, and democrats would be too willing to go with it )

I cringe at the scenario i’ve outlined above. The potential for violence is very high and the fact that way too many illegals that have entered the country are single, military aged men. Examine your own situation / and setting and take appropriate measures to protect yourself and family. In some cases it may mean being prepped to get out of dodge, others may need to establish a degree of support groups for armed self defense.

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