Finally got a reasonable night’s sleep :)
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future
(End of the American Dream)—The UN wants much more control over global affairs, and “the Pact for the Future” which is scheduled to be adopted during “the Summit of the Future” that will be held on September 22nd and 23rd will go a long way toward making that a reality. But even though “the Summit of the Future” is just days away, hardly anyone is talking about it and the mainstream media is almost entirely ignoring it. Enormous decisions that could dramatically affect the future of everyone on the entire planet are about to be made, and just about the entire population has absolutely no idea what is going on.
This is exactly how the globalists like it. They don’t want the general population to even be aware of their agenda as they relentlessly push it forward. . . .
One of the most disturbing things about “the Pact for the Future” is that it appears to give the UN a central role during any future “global shocks”…
The 3rd draft of the Pact for the Future was released on August 27 and is currently being reviewed by UN member states. This draft continues the discussion around “global shocks” and how these shocks will require a global response.
For example, one section titled “We will strengthen the international response to complex global shocks”, states that there is a need for a “coordinated and multidimensional international response to complex global shocks and the central role of the United Nations in this regard.”
The UN defines “complex global shocks” as events that “have severely disruptive and adverse consequences for a significant proportion of countries and the global population”. These shocks would require a “multidimensional multistakeholder, and whole of government, whole of society response.”
For a moment, try to imagine what it would be like for the UN to be calling the shots during the next global pandemic.
I don’t think that is something that any of us want.
During a “global shock”, apparently the UN would be granted emergency powers “for a finite period”…
“These potential shocks would necessitate the activation of “emergency platforms” which could grant the UN more power to respond to these apparent emergencies. The document says the UN will present member states with “protocols for convening and operationalizing emergency platforms based on flexible approaches to respond to a range of different complex global shocks”.
While the UN claims these emergency platforms will only be “convened for a finite period”, and will not be a standing institution or entity with respect to national sovereignty, critics of the UN fear that these emergency platforms will be seized upon and used to grant the UN new legal powers.
If the Pact for the Future is adopted, the UN will be the one to determine when a “global shock” occurs.
And the UN would also be the one to determine when it should be granted emergency powers and for how long those emergency powers should be in force. Needless to say, this is a nightmare waiting to happen.
OBSERVATION - Much like the usurpation of national authority the WHO’s finagling of the treaty with the insertion of its globalist control agenda, the UN is manipulating the similar treaties to leverage global control over these ambitious “global shocks” (hint - WEF just recently put out a report of pending “global shocks” - coincidence?) All of this is setting the stage for the real global attack - either by virus/disease, war or some other ‘global’ catastrophe.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
***
Hard to place some of these illegal related issue because they span several topic areas, but I’ll place the following here because they relate to the growing CW2 pressures.
Venezuelan gangs are turning parts of US cities into no-go zones. Now we have 20k of Haitians turning Springfield Ohio into a little Haiti. Residents are pleading to the local govt to get control of their visitors - who are out killing pets, geese at the local park, trashing the city etc -acting like . . . . well Haitians.
Like the Venezuelans and other groups who’ve illegal come to America, they have little interest in adapting to our culture or appreciating our society - only interested in what they can get for free. It won’t take much before some areas self defense groups (which the leftists will call vigilantes) form to push back these hordes. Now place into the picture a trump victory in November and he moves to mass deport these illegals. They are already prone to violence and lawlessness (they are being allowed to essentially get away with anything now) as forces come to round them up - you think they will go peacefully? And they’ll have allies in Antifa and other communist/socialist elements. And it will go down hard - to the point that citizens in metro areas where these illegals are concentrated will face the wrath of these rampaging illegals. And in smaller towns like Springfield (pop around 60K) where the regime has deliberately imported them, even rural areas are threatened.
As a commentator at the “burning platform” clearly noted “This is all coming to a head like a giant pustule, and it’s going to burst. “ - especially if harris loses. There will no longer be any restraints.
***
Interesting view on wilderwealthwise this morning in regards to Merchan’s sudden change of sentencing of trump over the bogus inditement.
“If Trump wins the election, the prospect of jailing the president-elect of the United States becomes such a high-stakes game that I think Juan will blink and sentence him to probation for a month. Jailing the president-elect is a de facto declaration of Civil War 2.0. That would make a very, very long winter for New York City without electricity and gas and would result in the place looking worse than it did in Escape From New York.”
https://wilderwealthywise.com/
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Economy remains one of, if not the top issue in the presidential campaign. A lot boils down to if the Fed (under some degree of regime direction) has let the economy deflate to the point of the nasty “r” word - recession.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
This is do or die week for harris and her debate with Trump. One has to keep scuttlebutt at bay, but with all the reports that she is flailing with debate prep and demands for last minute changes to rules suggest two scenarios - 1) These ‘leaks’ are designed to drastically lower the expectation bar - even though her big propaganda has been cranking out how good a debater she is - and 2) Things are really going south for her.
***
House Republicans released a continuing resolution (CR) that would fund the government until 28 March 2025, and includes the SAVE Act and some additional requests from the White House.
Lawmakers have just 21 days to come to an agreement to keep the government open before the Sept. 30 funding deadline.
Schumer is threatening a govt shutdown over the addition of the SAVE act.
Chickens playing in the road.
OBSERVATION - Back from the dead, the CR has risen its ugly head. A real budget is a no go at this stage of the election cycle and republicans currently have some leverage over the democrats as far as the PR goes. A shut down won’t help schumer at this stage.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Even some shock being expressed by elements of the MSM that biden has spent over 40% of his time on vacation.
Cyber attacks/warfare – Moderate ALERT as of Sep 1, 2024
(FO) According to a joint cybersecurity advisory, the FBI, National Security Agency (NSA), and Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) assess that Russian General Staff Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU) Unit 29155 hackers are targeting global and U.S. critical infrastructure.
According to the advisory, Unit 29155 has conducted numerous hacks against NATO members in Europe, the U.S., and countries in central Asia and Latin America with the goal of disrupting military aid to Ukraine.
Illegal Immigration –
See CW2 above.
Russia -
Logistics –
Western intel sources state Iran has sent over 200 Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. These missiles, with a range of up to 120 km, are expected to target Ukrainian infrastructure, cities like Kharkiv and Sumy, and military positions along the frontline such as Pokrovsk.
Both Russia and Iran (IRGC) are denying that any missiles have been shipped to Russia. But then they initially made the same claims about the Shahed drones.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range, fair but with scattered light rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Relatively slow in the missile / drone side overnight. Ukrainian air defense shot down 6 Shahed drones and 2 Kh-59/69 missiles overnight
Ukraine forces have pushed further into New York and reclaimed territory lost to Russia.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
A direct hit destroyed the last remaining bridge in the Kursk region. The footage shows the spectacular end of one of the three bridges over the Seym River near the village of Karizh. Ukraine has also been taking out the numerous pontoon bridges Russian has attempted to install to replace these bridges.
There are claims that Russia is mounting a counter attack in the region, but there are no collaboration evidence of such an action.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian attacks increasing along the southern side of the salient in what appears to be an attempt to enclose a Ukrainian pocket that has developed and trap forces there in. Ukraine reportedly in the process of making a staged withdrawal to prevent such an occurrence.
Outlook —
Russian missile / drone attacks have really ebbed overnight and may reflect a slowdown in order to restore stocks for the next big blitz. Similar to Ukraine attacks are down. Fight on the front lines is relatively static with minor gains in some places in the Donbas region.
Unconfirmed reports that Russia has scraped 50K troops to defend Kursk. However, it appears from putin’s commentary that he isn’t placing a high priority on this operation.
Rains are starting to appear on the weather forecasts so military planners and tacticians on both sides should be making plans and positioning for when the ground turns to gumbo.
Finally, under Europe / NATO General below, Russia is having a growing problem with stray Shahed drones and eventually this will result in a major incident. They have intruded into at least three NATO countries (Latvia, Poland and Romania), Moldova and Belarus.
Europe / NATO General –
Yesterday, a Russian drone crashed in Latvia’s Rezekne region. The Latvian Ministry of Defense reported that the drone, which entered Latvian airspace from Belarus, is under investigation to determine the exact circumstances of the incident.
Russian suicide drone violated Romanian airspace. Romanian fighter jets were scrambled but the drone took a turn toward the Black Sea after penetrating 75 km and left Romania
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel hit major Hezbollah/IRGC facility in Syria
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Hamas: We are committed to our demands to permanently stop the war and completely withdraw from Gaza, and these are clear demands.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continued search and destroy operations.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight, Israeli fighter jets struck several sites and a rocket launcher belonging to Hezbollah in southern Lebanon’s Kafr Kila, Taybeh, Hanine, and Yarine, the Israeli army says.A separate strike yesterday in Khirbet Selm targeted a building used by Hezbollah, the military adds.
Hezbollah continues to fire rockets into N Israel. Israel continues to reply with air and artillery strikes.
Israeli PM says he has instructed the military to prepare for battle in north. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that he instructed the IDF to prepare to change the situation in the north after nearly a year of Hezbollah rocket fire. “This situation cannot continue and we are committed to returning the residents of the north safely to their homes,” he said. Netanyahu also said he was considering measures to combat increased terrorism in the West Bank including building a barrier along the eastern border.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israel hit a Syrian facility used by Iran for chemical arms production, described as one of the largest in recent years.
Reports so far of 5 Killed and 15 Injured as a result of last night’s Israeli airstrikes on the Scientific Studies and Research Center, which has previously been used by the Syrian Army and Iranian-Backed Forces to produce chemical weapons, surface-to-surface, and surface-to-air missiles, near the city of Masyaf within the Hama Governorate in Northwestern Syria.
Sky News Arabic: “The research center in Masyaf was manned by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and has suffered enormous damage.” Reports that many of the sites struck are IRGC and Hezbollah.
Reuters sources: The military research center that was bombed in Syria includes a team of Iranian military experts
———WEST BANK——————————-
PA wants UN to order removal of 500,000 Jews from Judea and Samaria The resolution is expected to be brought to a vote at the U.N. General Assembly, which is scheduled to open on Sept. 10. The Palestinian Authority is circulating a draft resolution asking the United Nations General Assembly to urge Israel to withdraw from Judea and Samaria and remove some 500,000 Israeli citizens living in the territory within six months.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Palestinian Jordanians were celebrating passing out candy and fruits as well as shooting off fireworks over the murder of three Israelites at the Allenby crossing this weekend.
Qatari Prime Minister and Foreign Minister: We reject any attempt at demographic or regional change in the Gaza Strip
——— FORECAST ————————-
It seems that Israel has likely set a “D-day” for the ground invasion of S Lebanon. This assessment is also supported by the announced plans to start next level security plans in Gaza and scaling back direct military action. Time is pressing now on Israel and I’m initially thinking that sometime in October is the likely window. Probably the first half. Israel has had plans ready for years and have had time to refine them the past 10 months during the course of the low intensity conflict.
Leadership wise, at a high level, Hezbollah is hurting having lost a lot of senior commanders. On a smaller scale, there may be some skilled and motivated smaller unit commanders, however, reestablishment of the chain of command to coordinate those smaller units will result in gaps and units being defeated in detail.
Israel also has a window of opportunity as Iran currently appears to be inclined to let Hezbollah go it alone. Iran’s nuclear program as this stage is likely at too delicate a stage to act in a way that would invite Israeli strikes.
Iran –
Rafael Grossi, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, on Iran’s nuclear program: “We have lost the “continuity of knowledge” regarding the production and development of centrifuges, rotors, blowers, heavy water, and uranium-lead concentration.
Translation: we know nothing about the Iranian nuclear program. (Amir Tsarfati)
Misc of Note –
Just a few other thoughts about the impact of trump’s mass deportation may have on the country. I think of a domino effect that the democrats have set up with the massive illegal immigration of the past 4 years. We saw a small portion of that capability with the blm/antifa riots in 2020. With 12+ million new illegals (plus the millions before) the democrats may push the button to trigger the doomsday plot to overthrow trump via violence - the deportation riots. Fueled by such a large illegal body and guided/instigated by the antifa elements, such riots could dwarf 2020 by an order of magnitude.
Remember - democrats are willing to burn down the country as long as they can rule over the ashes.
This potential scenario will also be tied to democrat claims of a ‘stolen’ election. Immediate pushback will be expected by those on the right who are not in the mood for this nonsense. The explosion of deportation riots will be tied in some manner to a disputed election.
I would also expect that following the election thru to inauguration day, antifa (fueled by democrats and leftists funds and support) will have a renewed cause to riot. These riots will be used as a recruiting method to start pulling in the illegals via fears of deportation.
We already know that major metro areas will be ground zero for many of these riots. Smaller towns like Springfield OH will be hammered hard as well. Potential millions of rioters will easily overwhelm local police and even National guard, forcing active duty forces into the fray. This time around, the rioters will be armed and very willing to shoot. Martial law maybe declared before January to not only try to keep some of the genie in but prevent Trump’s swearing in. (this scenario offered by the left to stop the massive violence if trump is prevented from being president is not too absurd, and democrats would be too willing to go with it )
I cringe at the scenario i’ve outlined above. The potential for violence is very high and the fact that way too many illegals that have entered the country are single, military aged men. Examine your own situation / and setting and take appropriate measures to protect yourself and family. In some cases it may mean being prepped to get out of dodge, others may need to establish a degree of support groups for armed self defense.
Its been 23 years and we’ve forgotten. . . . . .
Yesterday got hit by other events. Doubling up today
Terrorism - Moderate THREAT as of Sep 2, 2024
Remembering 9/11 - as far too many have no clue.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
NBC September 25?
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
Dust settling after last night’s “debate”. ABC getting hammered for the gross bias of their so called ‘moderators’, essentially making it a 3 on 1 event. Folks, trump knew he was entering the lions den last night, he’s no fool. By doing so he exposed the shallowness of harris, who hid behind the moderators as well as exposed the media bias to the country. Most rate as a draw, while the far left claim a victory for harris. If the needle moves it will affect independents and undecided towards Trump more than harris just due to the gross unfairness of the ganging up on trump. It will certainly galvanize Trump’s base.
Whether or not the debate on the 25 is still a go or no is still in the air. harris will likely attempt to run as far away from it as possible after last night, but may be forced back if her polls sinks
Illegal Immigration –
Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua have reportedly taken over a hotel in El Paso, TX.
The El Paso County Attorney’s office just filed a restraining order against the hotel. They allege the owner has allowed illegal activity to go on for months. Police have been called there over 700 times in 2 years.
OBSERVATION - These events will continue to grow as these and other criminal gangs establish themselves deeper into the US - especially under the protective blanket of ‘sanctuary ‘ cities and states.
North/South Korea –
North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un gave a speech on Monday in which he vowed an “exponential” increase in North Korea’s nuclear arsenal to meet “the various threats posed by the United States and its followers.”
Kim said the United States and “its followers” (by which he presumably meant South Korea) pose a “grave threat” to the security of his Communist dictatorship with their policies of “reckless expansion.”
“The obvious conclusion is that the nuclear force of the DPRK and the posture capable of properly using it for ensuring the state’s right to security in any time should be more thoroughly perfected,” Kim said in a speech commemorating the 76th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean state.
OBSERVATION - A rather typical speech by Kim echoing his pasts calls to increase the country’s nuclear capabilities. Perhaps a little more strident this year since ties to Russia have increased through the supply of arms for the Ukraine war.
Russia -
*****
Kremlin says Moscow will respond if Kyiv uses US ATACMS missiles to strike Russia
Logistics –
Beijing is giving Moscow “very substantial” help to beef up its war machine, and in return Russia is handing over its closely guarded military tech on submarines and missiles, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range, fair but with scattered light rain.
NOTE - Longer range forecasts show the summer high pressure ridge over Europe breaking down and a significant storm developing over N Italy and into the Balkans. This potentially severe wet weather mass may eventually be headed towards Ukraine.
RUMINT –
Barely rumint. There are growing reports from multiple angles and sources that the US and Britain are going to give Ukraine the green light to used western weapons systems to strike deeper and harder into Russia. One piece of evidence is the focus on Iranian missiles being delivered to Russia - one source of justification for the policy change. Unclear as to just how much free hand Ukraine will have.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy drone wars
Yesterday - Ukrainian air defense shot down 38/46 Shahed drones
0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
0/1 Kh-31P anti-radar missileRussia faced
Additionally, 3 Shahed drones left Ukrainian territory and three more were lost, likely due to EW measures.
Overnight, Russia launched another missile and drone attack on Ukraine.
Shot down:
0/6 Kh-31P anti radar missiles
0/2 S-300 ballistic missiles
0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missile
20/25 Shahed drones
Another 5 Shahed drones fell independently, likely due to EW measures.
Reports of drone strikes overnight against Russia. An estimated 150 Ukraine drones were launched over much of Russia. Explosions reported at the Domodedovo and Sheremetyevo airports in Moscow along with explosions in the Bryansk, Smolensk, and Tula regions. For the first time, Ukrainian drones are striking Domodedovo International Airport in Moscow. It’s the second-largest airport in Moscow after Sheremetyevo Airport.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Situation appears to be static, though Russian claims a counter offensive is underway, most likely propaganda.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces are pressing the attack all across the axis.
Outlook —
Though Russia has redeployed some critical assets deeper into Russia, primarily aircraft, the lumbering behemoth of its logistics and other support assets likely remains clustered in highly targetable sites well within range of western weapons. Part of it may be denial that Ukraine will be allowed to act, part may well be that Russian planners are having enough problems just sustaining the logistic train to the front lines to have to now suddenly disrupt that train to disperse these facilities into smaller, more survivable elements.
We’ve seen throughout this war that Russia’s logistics are extremely vulnerable and when cut off, the troops become vulnerable to Ukraine attacks. Deep strikes will increase this vulnerability .
Now potential targets are not likely restricted to military only, but infrastructure and industry. Oil refineries and other facilities, power generation, rail network and yes, the Kerch Strait Bridge all will have bullseyes on them. Russia’s air defenses, already stretched, will find it more difficult to protect from and even survive Ukraine attacks. Even now, with simpler drone attacks, Ukraine is having success penetrating to Moscow.
This brings us to Moscow’s response and a lot depends on the targets hit and how close to Moscow they come. putin has lost some of the PR against deep strikes just by his attacks on civilian targets of late as well as his non-action when previous red lines have been ‘crossed’. I have little doubt that once Ukraine deep strikes occur that Russia will redouble large missile/drone attacks (likely drawing upon the Iranian and remaining NK missile) aimed at govt and civilian targets. There will be nuclear saber rattling too, but I think that will be all he will do. Were putin to order a tactical nuke strike(s) on Ukraine, multiple NATO countries like Poland, Romania and the Baltics would respond. All heck would ensue afterwards.
On the ground, an aspect I’ve noticed, but not really tracked, is the substantial drop in the numbers of Russian tanks and APCs reportedly being destroyed on the front. Some OSINT analysts are noting two trends, the biggest is that those elements are in very short supply and reserved for major operations and two, because they are in short supply, Russian is relying on meat attack and alternative transportation of the troops to the front (hence the ATVs, motor cycles and more civilian vehicles racing to the drop-off points for the ground assaults. Russian glide bombing support has also been a game changer in providing more firepower to an attack than its dwindling artillery elements can provide. These are standoff munitions which means the Russian jets don’t have to be significantly exposed to Ukraine ADA assets.
The critical fight to watch is the Pokrovsk axis, as it has Russia’s highest priority. Ukraine is reinforcing the sector with seasoned, remanned and rearmed brigades and will make the Russian efforts very difficult to achieve.
Europe / NATO General –
(FO) The Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, called on NATO to have a joint response to Russian drones entering Latvian and Romanian airspace over the weekend. The Latvian defense ministry recalled an agreement at the NATO Washington Summit this summer to “strengthen air defense on NATO’s eastern flank by introducing a more active rotational air defense model.”
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Intense airstrikes in S Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
IDF Spokesman:
Earlier today, IDF forces detained a convoy of UN vehicles in northern Gaza, due to intelligence that a number of Palestinian suspects were present in the convoy.
IDF forces delayed the convoy in order to question the suspects.
UN later statement said “Our staff held by Israel in Gaza have been released.”
Speaking to troops during a drill simulating a ground offensive in Lebanon, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel is moving its focus to the northern front as it aims to soon achieve its objectives in the Gaza Strip. “The center of gravity is moving to the north, we are nearing the completion of our missions in the south, but we have a task here that has not been carried out, and this mission is to change the security situation and return the residents to their homes”
A probable report indicates Washington has warned Israel that U.S. naval forces cannot remain deployed indefinitely in the West Asia region to protect the country.
The report indicated that the U.S. sent a message urging Israel to reduce tensions with Hezbollah and Iran, as the presence of U.S. aircraft carriers in the area is temporary. “The aircraft carriers will not be able to stay in the area forever,” the report quoted.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continued search and destroy operations.
Overnight, the Israeli army says it struck prominent Hamas operatives at a command room embedded within the Israeli-designated humanitarian zone in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis. The military says it took steps to mitigate harm to civilians in the strike. Palestinian media report dozens of casualties in the attack, and say that the strikes hit a tent camp for displaced Gazans.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Buildings used by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon were targeted in airstrikes yesterday, the IDF says. The sites were hit by fighter jets in the towns of Ayta ash-Shab, Khiam, and Naqoura.
Hezbollah confirms in an official announcement the death of Muhammad al-Sha’ar, a commander in the Radwan force who was killed this morning in the Bekaa in Lebanon.
Overnight, four different areas in southern Lebanon were attacked.
Air Force fighter jets attacked during the night in the areas of Al Jabin, A-Nakura, Deir Sirin and Zabkin in southern Lebanon, about 30 launchers and military infrastructures of the terrorist organization Hezbollah, which posed a threat to the citizens of the State of Israel.
Also, IDF forces attacked with artillery in the A-Dahira area in southern Lebanon.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Police say they foiled an attempt to smuggle some 74 handguns into Israel from Jordan yesterday via the Rabin Crossing. The incident occurred on the same day as a deadly attack at the Allenby Bridge Crossing between the West Bank and Jordan. Customs inspectors at the Rabin terminal, near Eilat, found 74 Glock pistols and 61 magazines inside a Mitsubishi vehicle that was trying to cross into Israel from Jordan, police say.The driver of the car and a passenger, residents of the Bedouin town of Bir Hadaj and and another Bedouin community near Yeruham, were detained.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The military spokesman of the Houthis announces they shot down another American MQ9 drone - the second in 72 hours and the ninth since the start of the war in Gaza.
Each MQ9 costs about 32 million dollars.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel is establishing end game controls over Gaza which include control of the Phildelphi corridor, a 3 km buffer around the entire territory and control of the Nezarim corridor across the middle of Gaza. In all, this represents about 30% of Gaza. Hamas’ direct threat to Israel has been essentially destroyed, now only the search and destroy operations to further eliminate hamas leadership, followers, facilities and arms/munitions to prohibit hamas from regaining power.
This change in Gaza operations is one of the key indicators I’ve noted months ago that the emphasis is going to switch to Hezbollah. Israeli civilian and military leadership have increasingly over the past week or so, been much more outspoken at the prospect of entering Lebanon, likely preparing the citizens for a much more substantial war.
There seems over the past week to be a greater intensity in IAF strikes on key Hezbollah facilities across Lebanon, designed to significantly degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities. Far more rocket/missile launching sites getting hammered.
Finally, noting that the US has likely informed Israel that it cannot maintain US military presence in the region on standby for very much longer may instigate earlier rather than later attack on Hezbollah. Israel is relying in part on the western military presence to keep Iran in check. War with Hezbollah would likely stir the delayed Iranian revenge response. How long can the US sustain the deployment of forces? The reports out there don’t say but if history is any teacher, I would expect that not much more than another month.
Israel has the capability to initiate operations within a month to key upon the presence of western military elements. Such an all out war would also force these western forces to hold off any planned drawdown of forces. The “October Surprise” may come from an unlikely quarter this year.
Iran hasn’t been all that quiet either. As noted, actions in the West Bank have stepped up lately as Iran attempts to develop another front against Israel there. Terrorist elements are receiving more arms and munitions being smuggled in via Syria/Jordan and increasing attacks on Jews. Israel security forces have been reinforced by drone and IAF strikes - a first for Israel in this situation. What the terrorists in the West Bank lack are the extensive underground facilities Hamas and Hezbollah have as well as the heavier weapons. A different urban setting, but one that won’t divert too many resources away from the Hezbollah operations.
Jordan is facing a trying situation. Relatively friendly towards israel, it is facing rising palestinian and radical islamic forces that could threaten the rule of the king. So in part to keep them (temporally) from turning their guns on him, he may be giving a more hands off approach on the regions bordering the West Bank. He will have to eventually deal with the growing, iranian influenced arabs in the region.
Iran –
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken says the US is announcing new sanctions against Iran.
“[These sanctions] will be a significant economic consequences for Tehran’s actions.
US Treasury: Sanctions on Iranian Aviation and Russian Ships
UK foreign office: The UK Government and partners respond to Iran’s transfer of Ballistic Missiles to Russia: UK and E3 partners cancel bilateral arrangements with Iran, which will restrict Iran Air services into the UK and Europe; UK and US announce co-ordinated sanctions against Iranian and Russian individuals and organizations; Russian cargo ships sanctioned for their role in transporting military supplies from Iran to Russia
Iranian Foreign Minister: Tehran did not deliver ballistic missiles to Russia