Its been 23 years and we’ve forgotten. . . . . .
Yesterday got hit by other events. Doubling up today
Terrorism - Moderate THREAT as of Sep 2, 2024
Remembering 9/11 - as far too many have no clue.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
NBC September 25?
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
Dust settling after last night’s “debate”. ABC getting hammered for the gross bias of their so called ‘moderators’, essentially making it a 3 on 1 event. Folks, trump knew he was entering the lions den last night, he’s no fool. By doing so he exposed the shallowness of harris, who hid behind the moderators as well as exposed the media bias to the country. Most rate as a draw, while the far left claim a victory for harris. If the needle moves it will affect independents and undecided towards Trump more than harris just due to the gross unfairness of the ganging up on trump. It will certainly galvanize Trump’s base.
Whether or not the debate on the 25 is still a go or no is still in the air. harris will likely attempt to run as far away from it as possible after last night, but may be forced back if her polls sinks
Illegal Immigration –
Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua have reportedly taken over a hotel in El Paso, TX.
The El Paso County Attorney’s office just filed a restraining order against the hotel. They allege the owner has allowed illegal activity to go on for months. Police have been called there over 700 times in 2 years.
OBSERVATION - These events will continue to grow as these and other criminal gangs establish themselves deeper into the US - especially under the protective blanket of ‘sanctuary ‘ cities and states.
North/South Korea –
North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un gave a speech on Monday in which he vowed an “exponential” increase in North Korea’s nuclear arsenal to meet “the various threats posed by the United States and its followers.”
Kim said the United States and “its followers” (by which he presumably meant South Korea) pose a “grave threat” to the security of his Communist dictatorship with their policies of “reckless expansion.”
“The obvious conclusion is that the nuclear force of the DPRK and the posture capable of properly using it for ensuring the state’s right to security in any time should be more thoroughly perfected,” Kim said in a speech commemorating the 76th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean state.
OBSERVATION - A rather typical speech by Kim echoing his pasts calls to increase the country’s nuclear capabilities. Perhaps a little more strident this year since ties to Russia have increased through the supply of arms for the Ukraine war.
Russia -
*****
Kremlin says Moscow will respond if Kyiv uses US ATACMS missiles to strike Russia
Logistics –
Beijing is giving Moscow “very substantial” help to beef up its war machine, and in return Russia is handing over its closely guarded military tech on submarines and missiles, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range, fair but with scattered light rain.
NOTE - Longer range forecasts show the summer high pressure ridge over Europe breaking down and a significant storm developing over N Italy and into the Balkans. This potentially severe wet weather mass may eventually be headed towards Ukraine.
RUMINT –
Barely rumint. There are growing reports from multiple angles and sources that the US and Britain are going to give Ukraine the green light to used western weapons systems to strike deeper and harder into Russia. One piece of evidence is the focus on Iranian missiles being delivered to Russia - one source of justification for the policy change. Unclear as to just how much free hand Ukraine will have.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy drone wars
Yesterday - Ukrainian air defense shot down 38/46 Shahed drones
0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
0/1 Kh-31P anti-radar missileRussia faced
Additionally, 3 Shahed drones left Ukrainian territory and three more were lost, likely due to EW measures.
Overnight, Russia launched another missile and drone attack on Ukraine.
Shot down:
0/6 Kh-31P anti radar missiles
0/2 S-300 ballistic missiles
0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missile
20/25 Shahed drones
Another 5 Shahed drones fell independently, likely due to EW measures.
Reports of drone strikes overnight against Russia. An estimated 150 Ukraine drones were launched over much of Russia. Explosions reported at the Domodedovo and Sheremetyevo airports in Moscow along with explosions in the Bryansk, Smolensk, and Tula regions. For the first time, Ukrainian drones are striking Domodedovo International Airport in Moscow. It’s the second-largest airport in Moscow after Sheremetyevo Airport.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Situation appears to be static, though Russian claims a counter offensive is underway, most likely propaganda.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces are pressing the attack all across the axis.
Outlook —
Though Russia has redeployed some critical assets deeper into Russia, primarily aircraft, the lumbering behemoth of its logistics and other support assets likely remains clustered in highly targetable sites well within range of western weapons. Part of it may be denial that Ukraine will be allowed to act, part may well be that Russian planners are having enough problems just sustaining the logistic train to the front lines to have to now suddenly disrupt that train to disperse these facilities into smaller, more survivable elements.
We’ve seen throughout this war that Russia’s logistics are extremely vulnerable and when cut off, the troops become vulnerable to Ukraine attacks. Deep strikes will increase this vulnerability .
Now potential targets are not likely restricted to military only, but infrastructure and industry. Oil refineries and other facilities, power generation, rail network and yes, the Kerch Strait Bridge all will have bullseyes on them. Russia’s air defenses, already stretched, will find it more difficult to protect from and even survive Ukraine attacks. Even now, with simpler drone attacks, Ukraine is having success penetrating to Moscow.
This brings us to Moscow’s response and a lot depends on the targets hit and how close to Moscow they come. putin has lost some of the PR against deep strikes just by his attacks on civilian targets of late as well as his non-action when previous red lines have been ‘crossed’. I have little doubt that once Ukraine deep strikes occur that Russia will redouble large missile/drone attacks (likely drawing upon the Iranian and remaining NK missile) aimed at govt and civilian targets. There will be nuclear saber rattling too, but I think that will be all he will do. Were putin to order a tactical nuke strike(s) on Ukraine, multiple NATO countries like Poland, Romania and the Baltics would respond. All heck would ensue afterwards.
On the ground, an aspect I’ve noticed, but not really tracked, is the substantial drop in the numbers of Russian tanks and APCs reportedly being destroyed on the front. Some OSINT analysts are noting two trends, the biggest is that those elements are in very short supply and reserved for major operations and two, because they are in short supply, Russian is relying on meat attack and alternative transportation of the troops to the front (hence the ATVs, motor cycles and more civilian vehicles racing to the drop-off points for the ground assaults. Russian glide bombing support has also been a game changer in providing more firepower to an attack than its dwindling artillery elements can provide. These are standoff munitions which means the Russian jets don’t have to be significantly exposed to Ukraine ADA assets.
The critical fight to watch is the Pokrovsk axis, as it has Russia’s highest priority. Ukraine is reinforcing the sector with seasoned, remanned and rearmed brigades and will make the Russian efforts very difficult to achieve.
Europe / NATO General –
(FO) The Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, called on NATO to have a joint response to Russian drones entering Latvian and Romanian airspace over the weekend. The Latvian defense ministry recalled an agreement at the NATO Washington Summit this summer to “strengthen air defense on NATO’s eastern flank by introducing a more active rotational air defense model.”
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Intense airstrikes in S Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
IDF Spokesman:
Earlier today, IDF forces detained a convoy of UN vehicles in northern Gaza, due to intelligence that a number of Palestinian suspects were present in the convoy.
IDF forces delayed the convoy in order to question the suspects.
UN later statement said “Our staff held by Israel in Gaza have been released.”
Speaking to troops during a drill simulating a ground offensive in Lebanon, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel is moving its focus to the northern front as it aims to soon achieve its objectives in the Gaza Strip. “The center of gravity is moving to the north, we are nearing the completion of our missions in the south, but we have a task here that has not been carried out, and this mission is to change the security situation and return the residents to their homes”
A probable report indicates Washington has warned Israel that U.S. naval forces cannot remain deployed indefinitely in the West Asia region to protect the country.
The report indicated that the U.S. sent a message urging Israel to reduce tensions with Hezbollah and Iran, as the presence of U.S. aircraft carriers in the area is temporary. “The aircraft carriers will not be able to stay in the area forever,” the report quoted.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continued search and destroy operations.
Overnight, the Israeli army says it struck prominent Hamas operatives at a command room embedded within the Israeli-designated humanitarian zone in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis. The military says it took steps to mitigate harm to civilians in the strike. Palestinian media report dozens of casualties in the attack, and say that the strikes hit a tent camp for displaced Gazans.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Buildings used by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon were targeted in airstrikes yesterday, the IDF says. The sites were hit by fighter jets in the towns of Ayta ash-Shab, Khiam, and Naqoura.
Hezbollah confirms in an official announcement the death of Muhammad al-Sha’ar, a commander in the Radwan force who was killed this morning in the Bekaa in Lebanon.
Overnight, four different areas in southern Lebanon were attacked.
Air Force fighter jets attacked during the night in the areas of Al Jabin, A-Nakura, Deir Sirin and Zabkin in southern Lebanon, about 30 launchers and military infrastructures of the terrorist organization Hezbollah, which posed a threat to the citizens of the State of Israel.
Also, IDF forces attacked with artillery in the A-Dahira area in southern Lebanon.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Police say they foiled an attempt to smuggle some 74 handguns into Israel from Jordan yesterday via the Rabin Crossing. The incident occurred on the same day as a deadly attack at the Allenby Bridge Crossing between the West Bank and Jordan. Customs inspectors at the Rabin terminal, near Eilat, found 74 Glock pistols and 61 magazines inside a Mitsubishi vehicle that was trying to cross into Israel from Jordan, police say.The driver of the car and a passenger, residents of the Bedouin town of Bir Hadaj and and another Bedouin community near Yeruham, were detained.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The military spokesman of the Houthis announces they shot down another American MQ9 drone - the second in 72 hours and the ninth since the start of the war in Gaza.
Each MQ9 costs about 32 million dollars.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel is establishing end game controls over Gaza which include control of the Phildelphi corridor, a 3 km buffer around the entire territory and control of the Nezarim corridor across the middle of Gaza. In all, this represents about 30% of Gaza. Hamas’ direct threat to Israel has been essentially destroyed, now only the search and destroy operations to further eliminate hamas leadership, followers, facilities and arms/munitions to prohibit hamas from regaining power.
This change in Gaza operations is one of the key indicators I’ve noted months ago that the emphasis is going to switch to Hezbollah. Israeli civilian and military leadership have increasingly over the past week or so, been much more outspoken at the prospect of entering Lebanon, likely preparing the citizens for a much more substantial war.
There seems over the past week to be a greater intensity in IAF strikes on key Hezbollah facilities across Lebanon, designed to significantly degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities. Far more rocket/missile launching sites getting hammered.
Finally, noting that the US has likely informed Israel that it cannot maintain US military presence in the region on standby for very much longer may instigate earlier rather than later attack on Hezbollah. Israel is relying in part on the western military presence to keep Iran in check. War with Hezbollah would likely stir the delayed Iranian revenge response. How long can the US sustain the deployment of forces? The reports out there don’t say but if history is any teacher, I would expect that not much more than another month.
Israel has the capability to initiate operations within a month to key upon the presence of western military elements. Such an all out war would also force these western forces to hold off any planned drawdown of forces. The “October Surprise” may come from an unlikely quarter this year.
Iran hasn’t been all that quiet either. As noted, actions in the West Bank have stepped up lately as Iran attempts to develop another front against Israel there. Terrorist elements are receiving more arms and munitions being smuggled in via Syria/Jordan and increasing attacks on Jews. Israel security forces have been reinforced by drone and IAF strikes - a first for Israel in this situation. What the terrorists in the West Bank lack are the extensive underground facilities Hamas and Hezbollah have as well as the heavier weapons. A different urban setting, but one that won’t divert too many resources away from the Hezbollah operations.
Jordan is facing a trying situation. Relatively friendly towards israel, it is facing rising palestinian and radical islamic forces that could threaten the rule of the king. So in part to keep them (temporally) from turning their guns on him, he may be giving a more hands off approach on the regions bordering the West Bank. He will have to eventually deal with the growing, iranian influenced arabs in the region.
Iran –
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken says the US is announcing new sanctions against Iran.
“[These sanctions] will be a significant economic consequences for Tehran’s actions.
US Treasury: Sanctions on Iranian Aviation and Russian Ships
UK foreign office: The UK Government and partners respond to Iran’s transfer of Ballistic Missiles to Russia: UK and E3 partners cancel bilateral arrangements with Iran, which will restrict Iran Air services into the UK and Europe; UK and US announce co-ordinated sanctions against Iranian and Russian individuals and organizations; Russian cargo ships sanctioned for their role in transporting military supplies from Iran to Russia
Iranian Foreign Minister: Tehran did not deliver ballistic missiles to Russia
Just before Thanksgiving. What scum!!!!
Seasons are a changing here in the Redoubt. First major mountain snow warning of the season and my furnace kicked on overnight.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
— Downgrade due to lack of physical activity, but high due to rhetoric.
***
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) claims 30 percent of Republicans refuse to support Democratic Party candidates because of their views on women, race, and LGBTQ issues. Speaking with podcast host Kara Swisher at the 2024 Texas Tribune Festival, the California Democrat insisted that these voters will never cast a ballot for Democrats, which is why the 2024 presidential race between former President Donald J. Trump and Kamala Harris is so close.“There are people who will never be, shall we say, inclined to support Democrats because of – they just have a different orientation toward women, people of color, LGBTQ, you know, they just are not ever going to be there,” Pelosi told Swisher before continuing: ” So, say that’s about like 30 percent or something like that… of the Republicans.”
Pelosi’s remarks are reminiscent of similar comments made by Hillary Clinton during the 2016 presidential election in which she labeled half of Trump’s political base as a “basket of deplorable” and cited similar perceived prejudices listed by the former Speaker.
OBSERVATION - pelosi speaks the core beliefs of the modern, progressive/marxist democrat. This is driving the democrat side of the split developing in the country - demonization of political opponents and relegating them to a form of sub-human existence.
Terrorism - Moderate THREAT as of Sep 2, 2024
9/11 came and gone, and the American people are relatively neutral about the event. Our world has devolved into three minute soundbites and short term memory.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Yesterdays rumblings on Wall St were caused by the release of inflation data.
The Labor Department reported the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% last month, in line with July. Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy components, rose 0.3% on a monthly basis, exceeding economist expectations for a 0.2% rise.
Traders changed their bets to a 85% probability for a 25 basis points cut by the Fed from 66% on Tuesday and the probability of a 50 basis point cut fell to 13% from 34% a day ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
“Maybe the market was looking for a softer inflation print which would give the Fed more reason to cut by 50 basis points next week.” said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager, at Natixis. “This report was in-line to slightly hotter than expectations. As a result, this puts a bit of pressure on the Fed to cut by only 25 basis points.”
OBSERVATIONS - Pesky inflation continues to hang on and the markets earlier bet that recent economic data from other sectors would drive a half point drop in the prime. Now the expectations are solidifying on a quarter point drop. A lot of smoke and mirrors in economic data, especially as the election closes in.
***
Warren Buffett has been raising some eyebrows lately as he has been selling off a considerable number of BoA shares. Reportedly sold 18.7 million shares of the second-largest U.S. bank between Sept. 3 and Sept. 5 to rake in roughly $760 million. Apple shares have also been sold off as well.
There has been no comment from him or his organization on the ‘why’ of the sales, but over the past few months it appears he has been converting more to cash and away from stocks. Some think his actions reflect lack of confidence in the administration’s happy talk of a ‘soft’ landing.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
NBC September 25?
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
Haitian ‘immigrant’s planted in Springfield OH (as well as other locations) proclivity to eat cats/dogs and purloin ducks/geese at local ponds hit the fan bigly over the past few days, spawning shrill denials by democrats attempting to stop the hemorrhage of the bad news about their ‘immigration’ policy. Across the board came the denials and the ‘show me’ claims.
Well, the receipts are coming in and suddenly the MSM are quieting down about it, though the typically deranged democrat ‘influencers’ continue to rant. Eye witnesses and police reports are pouring in showing how our ‘guests ‘ have been behaving. Now even higher level authorities are stepping in. Case in point the Ohio State police are being dispatched to help the locals in Springfield. Now the state AG has weighed in -
Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost announced this week that he has directed officials to begin reviewing ways to stop the Biden-Harris administration from sending large numbers of migrants to communities in the state amid backlash that is brewing over tens of thousands of Haitian illegal aliens who have been brought to a small town in the state.
His office noted that local residents have complained about the illegal aliens “causing car crashes, stealing property – including livestock, squatting in homes and killing wildlife for food.”
***
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., was forced to delay a House-wide vote on his plan to avert a partial government shutdown on Wednesday after a slew of GOP defections put the bill on life support within days of its rollout.
House leaders originally planned to hold the vote late on Wednesday afternoon, though as of earlier in the morning, at least eight Republican lawmakers signaled opposition.
Conservative opponents on Johnson’s right flank who were largely against CRs in general – believing them to be an extension of overbroad “omnibus” spending bills which they oppose – accused House GOP leaders of trying to appease them with a messaging bill that would not ultimately be signed into law.
OBSERVATION - This may well result in a limited shutdown after there end of the FY. The CY retains the massive spending put in place originally by pelosi and schumer as budget busters.
Illegal Immigration –
U.S. law enforcement and immigration officials have launched more than 100 investigations of crimes tied to suspected members of a violent Venezuelan gang, including sex trafficking in Louisiana and the point-blank shooting of two New York City police officers, according to two Department of Homeland Security officials.
The cases involving the Tren de Aragua gang show how hard it is for U.S. border agents to vet the criminal backgrounds of migrants from countries like Venezuela that won’t give the U.S. any help.
More than 330,000 Venezuelans crossed the U.S. border last year, according to Customs and Border Protection data, and Venezuela, like Cuba, China and a handful of other countries, doesn’t provide any criminal history information to U.S. officials.
OBSERVATION - The amount of crime committed by illegals is growing and the amount of gang-related crime is growing even faster yet.
Remember, Trump stated that Venezuela was emptying out its prisons and sending them to the US. Well, they’re here.
North/South Korea –
North Korea fired off multiple short-range ballistic missiles early Thursday, South Korean authorities said
Russia -
Russian FM Lavrov at the meeting with Ambassadors says Russia believes The West had allowed Ukraine to strike the Russia with long-range weapons long time ago, compared western leaders with Hitler and Napoleon
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range, fair but with scattered light rain.
NOTE - Longer range forecasts show the summer high pressure ridge over Europe breaking down and a significant storm developing over N Italy and into the Balkans. This potentially severe wet weather mass may eventually be headed towards Ukraine.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
News being released that approval of deep strikes using western munitions is a done deal, only some boundary conditions remain on their use.
Russian lost an Su-30 over the Black Sea, reported shot down by Ukrainian special ops using a MANPADS missile
Ukrainian air defense shot down 44 of 64 Shahed drones, 3 more returned to Russia, 4 lost over the territory of Ukraine(crashed) and 4 more are still flying
Ukrainian forces successfully struck a Russian ammunition dump outside of Mariupol. . Multiple large fires and secondary explosions could be seen from nearby as the dump cooked off.
A Russian missile targeted a civilian ship carrying wheat for Egypt in the Black Sea today, just after it left Ukrainian waters. Fortunately, there were no reported casualties. This is the first Russian attack on a civilian vessel in over a year.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
The Russian claim of a counter offensive has been documented. Russian forces are striking the western margin of the Ukraine salient and recapturing territory. Other smaller attacks on the northern and eastern margins.
Details - The situation in the Kursk region now looks more or less like this. Russians made their way into Snagost’, gained ground near Korenevo, and reportedly occupied Vishnevka, Apanasovka, Byakhove, Vnezapnoe, Viktorovka and Gordeevka. Units believed to be built around veteran VDV forces leading the assaults.
While this was going on, AFU launched attacks near the border.
While Russia is conducting offensive actions, several Russian sources reported that Ukraine was conducting attacks in the rear of the Russian contingent that is attacking Ukrainian units near Snagost.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces continue to press the fight all along the front in this sector. Russian observers noting that the assault is stalling.
Outlook —
Well, we’ll see how effective the Russian counter attack to liberate Kursk will be. Ukraine OPSEC isn’t telling us much and a lot of what is being reported on the Russian side is skewed towards propaganda.
What is apparent is the attack is being pressed by about 50K Russian forces against an estimated 5K Ukraine. Ukraine tactics will have to be seen, but there appears to be evidence that Ukraine is attacking some of the Russian forces from the rear. The next few days should develop the picture better.
On the eastern front, Russia continues to press the attack, but also doesn’t appear to be making there same gains as in previous weeks. Some reports I’ve seen suggest that they are giving more emphasis on consolidating their gains, taking some punch out of the assaults.
How quickly Ukraine will be able to more freely use the long range weapons provided by the west is yet to be seen. I would guess that targeting is ongoing and we could see some sites hit as early as next week (given the bureaucratic US state department’s OK).
ISRAEL –
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continued search and destroy operations.
IAF took out Hamas command cell at a UNRWA school that was also sheltering displaced people in the Nuseirat camp
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanese Foreign Minister: We are committed to implementing Security Council Resolution 1701
NOTE - 1701 requires Hezbollah demilitarize everything south of the Litiani River.
Another 40 more rockets were launched from Lebanon at northern Israel this evening, bringing the total today to over 100. The Israeli army says that some 30 rockets were launched at the Arab al-Aramshe area, and another 10 were fired at Matat. Many of the rockets struck open areas, although some impacted Matat. There were no injuries in the attacks.
Fighter jets struck Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon’s Khraibeh, as well as a rocket launcher in Ayta ash-Shab, and buildings used by the terror group in Houla, Ayta ash-Shab and Marwahin, the Israeli army says
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli bombing targeted a car at the entrance to the village of Khan Arnabah in the Quneitra countryside, southern Syria. Two reportedly killed, likely either Hezbollah or IRGC leaders.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to operate at a high tempo across most of the West Bank.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Qatari Foreign Ministry: We strongly condemn the renewed Israeli bombing of a UNRWA school sheltering displaced people in the Nuseirat camp
***
Jordan’s main Islamist opposition party made significant gains and won 31 out of 138 seats in parliament, according to official results.
The election outcome is the best yet for the Islamic Action Front (IAF) — who were able to capitalize on people’s anger over Israel’s war against Hamas.
The IAF is the political arm of Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood.
Jordan is home to a large Palestinian population.
Although the kingdom is a strong US ally and maintains diplomatic relations with Israel, the general public is widely sympathetic to the Palestinians.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel is moving quickly to finish initial containment and compartmentalizing of Gaza and increasing preparations to engage Hezbollah on the ground. This will be a completely different style of battle than what we’ve observed in Gaza. Gaza was dense, urban fighting, whereas S Lebanon is not densely populated. S Lebanon is also more hilly, vs the coastal plane of Gaza. Hezbollah has deep tunnels in solid rock but those were built for a level and style of warfare that is not likely to happen, nor has been adjusted for Israeli tactics and weapons.
Hezbollah’s military plans also paralleled Hamas - that being a rapid, surprise invasion into Israel. Those plans are out the door now and the state of any operational planning for an Israeli attack are in question due to the massive losses of key Hezbollah leadership.
Iranian support to Hezbollah continues to be a question mark. Iran did very little to directly help Hamas, so far has done a little more to try to support Hezbollah, but Israel has been on the move to weaken that as well. Syria has faced the wrath of IAF strikes on Hezbollah/IRGC facilities.
Israel has been playing outside the box the moslems have traditionally seen them operate in, and I don’t think they are as ready as they think they are.
But make no mistake, it will be a nasty fight, especially if Iran tries to actively poke its nose into it. But IMHO Israel has the tactical advantage and holds the initiative for any operation.
Iran –
There have been rumors floating around that Iran’s delay in its revenge is due to substantial failures of its missiles in the April attack and an attempt to work out the bugs before trying again. In the weeks after israel took out Ismail Haniyeh, Iran launched a significant missile exercise (IIRC I noted it in TM). April’s attack saw over 50% (others say much higher - nearly 90%) of the missiles failed, with many crashing back into Iran or Iraq or Syria. Iran may well be trying to learn, quickly, from that debacle before repeating it with a new attack.
Iraq -
The US Embassy in Iraq confirmed that a diplomatic compound in Baghdad was attacked by rockets tonight, with no casualties. An unspecified military official told AFP that the fighters launched two Katyusha rockets targeting the facility. It is believed that an Iranian backed militia was responsible for the attack and not ISIS.