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Seasons are a changing here in the Redoubt. First major mountain snow warning of the season and my furnace kicked on overnight.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
— Downgrade due to lack of physical activity, but high due to rhetoric.
***
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) claims 30 percent of Republicans refuse to support Democratic Party candidates because of their views on women, race, and LGBTQ issues. Speaking with podcast host Kara Swisher at the 2024 Texas Tribune Festival, the California Democrat insisted that these voters will never cast a ballot for Democrats, which is why the 2024 presidential race between former President Donald J. Trump and Kamala Harris is so close.“There are people who will never be, shall we say, inclined to support Democrats because of – they just have a different orientation toward women, people of color, LGBTQ, you know, they just are not ever going to be there,” Pelosi told Swisher before continuing: ” So, say that’s about like 30 percent or something like that… of the Republicans.”
Pelosi’s remarks are reminiscent of similar comments made by Hillary Clinton during the 2016 presidential election in which she labeled half of Trump’s political base as a “basket of deplorable” and cited similar perceived prejudices listed by the former Speaker.
OBSERVATION - pelosi speaks the core beliefs of the modern, progressive/marxist democrat. This is driving the democrat side of the split developing in the country - demonization of political opponents and relegating them to a form of sub-human existence.
Terrorism - Moderate THREAT as of Sep 2, 2024
9/11 came and gone, and the American people are relatively neutral about the event. Our world has devolved into three minute soundbites and short term memory.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Yesterdays rumblings on Wall St were caused by the release of inflation data.
The Labor Department reported the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% last month, in line with July. Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy components, rose 0.3% on a monthly basis, exceeding economist expectations for a 0.2% rise.
Traders changed their bets to a 85% probability for a 25 basis points cut by the Fed from 66% on Tuesday and the probability of a 50 basis point cut fell to 13% from 34% a day ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
“Maybe the market was looking for a softer inflation print which would give the Fed more reason to cut by 50 basis points next week.” said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager, at Natixis. “This report was in-line to slightly hotter than expectations. As a result, this puts a bit of pressure on the Fed to cut by only 25 basis points.”
OBSERVATIONS - Pesky inflation continues to hang on and the markets earlier bet that recent economic data from other sectors would drive a half point drop in the prime. Now the expectations are solidifying on a quarter point drop. A lot of smoke and mirrors in economic data, especially as the election closes in.
***
Warren Buffett has been raising some eyebrows lately as he has been selling off a considerable number of BoA shares. Reportedly sold 18.7 million shares of the second-largest U.S. bank between Sept. 3 and Sept. 5 to rake in roughly $760 million. Apple shares have also been sold off as well.
There has been no comment from him or his organization on the ‘why’ of the sales, but over the past few months it appears he has been converting more to cash and away from stocks. Some think his actions reflect lack of confidence in the administration’s happy talk of a ‘soft’ landing.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
NBC September 25?
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
Haitian ‘immigrant’s planted in Springfield OH (as well as other locations) proclivity to eat cats/dogs and purloin ducks/geese at local ponds hit the fan bigly over the past few days, spawning shrill denials by democrats attempting to stop the hemorrhage of the bad news about their ‘immigration’ policy. Across the board came the denials and the ‘show me’ claims.
Well, the receipts are coming in and suddenly the MSM are quieting down about it, though the typically deranged democrat ‘influencers’ continue to rant. Eye witnesses and police reports are pouring in showing how our ‘guests ‘ have been behaving. Now even higher level authorities are stepping in. Case in point the Ohio State police are being dispatched to help the locals in Springfield. Now the state AG has weighed in -
Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost announced this week that he has directed officials to begin reviewing ways to stop the Biden-Harris administration from sending large numbers of migrants to communities in the state amid backlash that is brewing over tens of thousands of Haitian illegal aliens who have been brought to a small town in the state.
His office noted that local residents have complained about the illegal aliens “causing car crashes, stealing property – including livestock, squatting in homes and killing wildlife for food.”
***
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., was forced to delay a House-wide vote on his plan to avert a partial government shutdown on Wednesday after a slew of GOP defections put the bill on life support within days of its rollout.
House leaders originally planned to hold the vote late on Wednesday afternoon, though as of earlier in the morning, at least eight Republican lawmakers signaled opposition.
Conservative opponents on Johnson’s right flank who were largely against CRs in general – believing them to be an extension of overbroad “omnibus” spending bills which they oppose – accused House GOP leaders of trying to appease them with a messaging bill that would not ultimately be signed into law.
OBSERVATION - This may well result in a limited shutdown after there end of the FY. The CY retains the massive spending put in place originally by pelosi and schumer as budget busters.
Illegal Immigration –
U.S. law enforcement and immigration officials have launched more than 100 investigations of crimes tied to suspected members of a violent Venezuelan gang, including sex trafficking in Louisiana and the point-blank shooting of two New York City police officers, according to two Department of Homeland Security officials.
The cases involving the Tren de Aragua gang show how hard it is for U.S. border agents to vet the criminal backgrounds of migrants from countries like Venezuela that won’t give the U.S. any help.
More than 330,000 Venezuelans crossed the U.S. border last year, according to Customs and Border Protection data, and Venezuela, like Cuba, China and a handful of other countries, doesn’t provide any criminal history information to U.S. officials.
OBSERVATION - The amount of crime committed by illegals is growing and the amount of gang-related crime is growing even faster yet.
Remember, Trump stated that Venezuela was emptying out its prisons and sending them to the US. Well, they’re here.
North/South Korea –
North Korea fired off multiple short-range ballistic missiles early Thursday, South Korean authorities said
Russia -
Russian FM Lavrov at the meeting with Ambassadors says Russia believes The West had allowed Ukraine to strike the Russia with long-range weapons long time ago, compared western leaders with Hitler and Napoleon
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range, fair but with scattered light rain.
NOTE - Longer range forecasts show the summer high pressure ridge over Europe breaking down and a significant storm developing over N Italy and into the Balkans. This potentially severe wet weather mass may eventually be headed towards Ukraine.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
News being released that approval of deep strikes using western munitions is a done deal, only some boundary conditions remain on their use.
Russian lost an Su-30 over the Black Sea, reported shot down by Ukrainian special ops using a MANPADS missile
Ukrainian air defense shot down 44 of 64 Shahed drones, 3 more returned to Russia, 4 lost over the territory of Ukraine(crashed) and 4 more are still flying
Ukrainian forces successfully struck a Russian ammunition dump outside of Mariupol. . Multiple large fires and secondary explosions could be seen from nearby as the dump cooked off.
A Russian missile targeted a civilian ship carrying wheat for Egypt in the Black Sea today, just after it left Ukrainian waters. Fortunately, there were no reported casualties. This is the first Russian attack on a civilian vessel in over a year.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
The Russian claim of a counter offensive has been documented. Russian forces are striking the western margin of the Ukraine salient and recapturing territory. Other smaller attacks on the northern and eastern margins.
Details - The situation in the Kursk region now looks more or less like this. Russians made their way into Snagost’, gained ground near Korenevo, and reportedly occupied Vishnevka, Apanasovka, Byakhove, Vnezapnoe, Viktorovka and Gordeevka. Units believed to be built around veteran VDV forces leading the assaults.
While this was going on, AFU launched attacks near the border.
While Russia is conducting offensive actions, several Russian sources reported that Ukraine was conducting attacks in the rear of the Russian contingent that is attacking Ukrainian units near Snagost.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces continue to press the fight all along the front in this sector. Russian observers noting that the assault is stalling.
Outlook —
Well, we’ll see how effective the Russian counter attack to liberate Kursk will be. Ukraine OPSEC isn’t telling us much and a lot of what is being reported on the Russian side is skewed towards propaganda.
What is apparent is the attack is being pressed by about 50K Russian forces against an estimated 5K Ukraine. Ukraine tactics will have to be seen, but there appears to be evidence that Ukraine is attacking some of the Russian forces from the rear. The next few days should develop the picture better.
On the eastern front, Russia continues to press the attack, but also doesn’t appear to be making there same gains as in previous weeks. Some reports I’ve seen suggest that they are giving more emphasis on consolidating their gains, taking some punch out of the assaults.
How quickly Ukraine will be able to more freely use the long range weapons provided by the west is yet to be seen. I would guess that targeting is ongoing and we could see some sites hit as early as next week (given the bureaucratic US state department’s OK).
ISRAEL –
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continued search and destroy operations.
IAF took out Hamas command cell at a UNRWA school that was also sheltering displaced people in the Nuseirat camp
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanese Foreign Minister: We are committed to implementing Security Council Resolution 1701
NOTE - 1701 requires Hezbollah demilitarize everything south of the Litiani River.
Another 40 more rockets were launched from Lebanon at northern Israel this evening, bringing the total today to over 100. The Israeli army says that some 30 rockets were launched at the Arab al-Aramshe area, and another 10 were fired at Matat. Many of the rockets struck open areas, although some impacted Matat. There were no injuries in the attacks.
Fighter jets struck Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon’s Khraibeh, as well as a rocket launcher in Ayta ash-Shab, and buildings used by the terror group in Houla, Ayta ash-Shab and Marwahin, the Israeli army says
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli bombing targeted a car at the entrance to the village of Khan Arnabah in the Quneitra countryside, southern Syria. Two reportedly killed, likely either Hezbollah or IRGC leaders.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to operate at a high tempo across most of the West Bank.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Qatari Foreign Ministry: We strongly condemn the renewed Israeli bombing of a UNRWA school sheltering displaced people in the Nuseirat camp
***
Jordan’s main Islamist opposition party made significant gains and won 31 out of 138 seats in parliament, according to official results.
The election outcome is the best yet for the Islamic Action Front (IAF) — who were able to capitalize on people’s anger over Israel’s war against Hamas.
The IAF is the political arm of Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood.
Jordan is home to a large Palestinian population.
Although the kingdom is a strong US ally and maintains diplomatic relations with Israel, the general public is widely sympathetic to the Palestinians.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel is moving quickly to finish initial containment and compartmentalizing of Gaza and increasing preparations to engage Hezbollah on the ground. This will be a completely different style of battle than what we’ve observed in Gaza. Gaza was dense, urban fighting, whereas S Lebanon is not densely populated. S Lebanon is also more hilly, vs the coastal plane of Gaza. Hezbollah has deep tunnels in solid rock but those were built for a level and style of warfare that is not likely to happen, nor has been adjusted for Israeli tactics and weapons.
Hezbollah’s military plans also paralleled Hamas - that being a rapid, surprise invasion into Israel. Those plans are out the door now and the state of any operational planning for an Israeli attack are in question due to the massive losses of key Hezbollah leadership.
Iranian support to Hezbollah continues to be a question mark. Iran did very little to directly help Hamas, so far has done a little more to try to support Hezbollah, but Israel has been on the move to weaken that as well. Syria has faced the wrath of IAF strikes on Hezbollah/IRGC facilities.
Israel has been playing outside the box the moslems have traditionally seen them operate in, and I don’t think they are as ready as they think they are.
But make no mistake, it will be a nasty fight, especially if Iran tries to actively poke its nose into it. But IMHO Israel has the tactical advantage and holds the initiative for any operation.
Iran –
There have been rumors floating around that Iran’s delay in its revenge is due to substantial failures of its missiles in the April attack and an attempt to work out the bugs before trying again. In the weeks after israel took out Ismail Haniyeh, Iran launched a significant missile exercise (IIRC I noted it in TM). April’s attack saw over 50% (others say much higher - nearly 90%) of the missiles failed, with many crashing back into Iran or Iraq or Syria. Iran may well be trying to learn, quickly, from that debacle before repeating it with a new attack.
Iraq -
The US Embassy in Iraq confirmed that a diplomatic compound in Baghdad was attacked by rockets tonight, with no casualties. An unspecified military official told AFP that the fighters launched two Katyusha rockets targeting the facility. It is believed that an Iranian backed militia was responsible for the attack and not ISIS.
Longer than usual because there is a lot of crap happening.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future
C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, a global cabal of 97 cities—representing over 700 million people—working together to impose draconian climate policies that governments wouldn’t dare pass at the national level, has issued a new report “, The Future of Urban Consumption in a 1.5°C World”. This report sets the stage for policies so extreme, they’d make the Green New Deal look reasonable.
OBSERVATION - I encourage you to read the link. So dystopian is the views and plans, it almost reads like a bad apocalyptic novel. But its out there. Below are US cities that have signed onto the C40 bandwagon -
Austin
Boston
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
Miami
New Orleans
New York City
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Portland
San Francisco
Seattle
Washington, DC
This is just another example of how the WEF/Globalists are using smaller govt entities to press forward with their agenda that it cannot press on a much larger scale.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
(FO) More than 300 agricultural industry groups warned Congress that if a new farm bill is not passed, U.S. farmers will face challenges seeking operating credit for the 2025 crop year amid a “farm economy that has taken a downward spiral.”
The ag industry groups said if a farm bill with meaningful investments in commodity programs and crop insurance is not passed, thousands of family farms would be forced to shut down.
Ag economists say the industry is on the brink of, or already in a recession
OBSERVATION - wuhan disruptions; bird flu; explosive inflation on fuel, fertilizer and equipment; ; loan rates and massive drought have all combined over the past few years to hammer the agriculture industry. Govt regulatory and other programs have done little to take the additional burdens off their backs. Decline in agriculture production will lead to marked increases at the grocery stores.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier is reportedly heading back to US shores and its home of Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia after an extended Mideast tour. This brings to an end a rare Pentagon decision to have two US carrier’s patrolling Middle East region waters, in the wake of soaring tensions between Israel and Iran following the Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran this summer.
There are still smaller US warships currently in the Eastern Mediterranean, at a moment Israel and Iran-linked Hezbollah continue daily exchanges of fire. Additionally, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier remains in the Gulf of Oman.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/one-of-two-us-aircraft-carriers-in-the-middle-east-heads-home/
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee on Thursday dropped two criminal counts against President Trump in Fani Willis’s lawfare RICO case.
In August 2023, corrupt Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis indicted President Trump and 18 co-defendants for daring to challenge the 2020 election.
Judge McAfee said two of the counts related to conspiracy and filing false documents are outside of Fani Willis’s jurisdiction since she is a local District Attorney and not a federal prosecutor.
A total of five of the 13 charges of the original indictment have now been dropped against President Trump. Judge McAfee dropped three of the charges earlier this year.
thegatewaypundit.com
OBSERVATION - The corruption charges Willis is facing is still working its way through the process. The case against trump is falling apart.
***
Fallout continues to hammer ABC news and the reprobate ‘moderators’ handling of the trump ambush.
Now more is coming out. Reportedly today an ABC whistleblower is suppose to release evidence that harris was given notice of the questions to be asked and notice that she would not be fact checked. If true, this is a serious breach of journalistic ethics and a death blow to what little reputation ABC news has. For Muir and Davis, it should be career terminating, just like what happened to Donna Brazile, a CNN contributor at the time, when she sent the Clinton camp advanced copies of the debate questions.
Next, ABC News failed to disclose that Kamala Harris and ABC News anchor Linsey Davis, who co-moderated Tuesday night’s debate between Harris and President Trump, are sorority sisters in the influential Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority, Inc. AKA formed a PAC in August after Harris became the Democrats’ presidential nominee.
The sorority connection is one more possible clue as to why the debate moderated by Davis and ABC World News Tonight anchor David Muir was so one-sided in favor of Harris. Muir and Davis interrupted Trump numerous times to fact check and argue with him while they did not fact check Harris even one time.
Numerous ABC “fact checks” on trump have been fact checked and ABC (and harris) have been found to be the ones lying.
RELATED - Mark Penn, a pollster and senior adviser for the Clintons from 1995-2008 and co-chair of the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, told the “John Solomon Reports” podcast Thursday that “suspicion is really quite high” that ABC colluded with the harris campaign and a review of internal texts and emails should be done by an independent party to find out whether there was an effort to rig the debate’s outcome.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/mark-penn-abc-donald-trump/2024/09/12/id/1180149/
***
harris is now all about debating, wanting another shot at Trump. Trump has said that’s all, no mulligans for harris. This in the face of growing evidence that the debate has helped Trump more than harris - especially among independents.
***
Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose warned election boards to be extra vigilant in the weeks before the November election after an investigation uncovered illegal voter registration forms circulating in Clark County.
In a media advisory, the secretary of state’s office noted, “The office’s Election Integrity Unit recently concluded an investigation into the origins of an illegal voter registration form translated into the Haitian Creole language. The Clark County Board of Elections reported this form to our office after rejecting its submission by a local applicant.”
In a memo to election officials, Hun Yi, director of investigations for the Secretary of State’s Public Integrity Division, said, “The Board confirmed they’ve only received one of these unauthorized forms, but they rightly recognized it as illegal and worked with my team to track down its source with the help of a county government assistance office.”
LaRose’s press release noted an ongoing investigation into “evidence of a pattern of fraudulent voter registration activity in multiple counties under the paid employment of a group called Black Fork Strategies.”
Black Fork’s website boasts that its goal is “building long-term progressive power” through canvassing and voter registration, among other things.
Last month, LaRose’s office referred a number of election fraud cases involving Black Fork for prosecution.
OBSERVATION - The Haitians eating cats issue is blowing up in the face of democrats as increased attention is now being given to the claims and is resulting in other abuses being detected. The receipts for the assault on pets and wildlife are increasingly documented, now back door illegal voter registration efforts are coming to light.
Also coming under the spot light are these non-profit NGO entities who are supposed to be assisting these Haitians to integrate into our society and culture doing absolutely nothing except raking in millions of federal dollars.
It has also brought to light the abuses the regime has inflicted on the country in its rush to flood the country with illegals of all flavors.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden made news putting on a Trump hat at a post 9/11 gathering at a fire station.
Illegal Immigration –
See “POLITICAL FRONT” above for Haitians being illegally registered to vote.
China –
News buried by all the other stuff, is relating back to the ongoing property and associated economic crisis still rocking China.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Putin said that the use of Western long-range precision weapons against Russia by Ukraine would signal direct NATO involvement in the war in Ukraine. He added that Ukraine uses data and intelligence from NATO countries to coordinate strikes because they don’t have such data themselves.
OBSERVATIONs - See Ukraine below
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range, fair but with scattered light rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 of 26 Shahed drones overnight.
A large Russian ammunition depot has reportedly detonated in Mariupol
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Fighting there is smothered by the fog of war.
Russian claims the liberation of about a dozen towns on the western margin of the Kursk salient.
Ukrainian forces continued counterattacking in areas where Russian forces have launched counterattacks and launched additional attacks outside of the salient, making gains in Glushkovsky Raion (west of Korenevsky Raion).
Russian authorities have reportedly deployed additional elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast and may begin redeploying more combat-experienced forces to support ongoing Russian counterattacks and future counteroffensive operations against Ukrainian forces in Russia.
ISW observed reports that elements of the 137th VDV Regiment were operating in the Siversk direction as of late August 2024. Elements of the 106th VDV Division’s 51st VDV Regiment are also reportedly operating in Kursk Oblast.
Russian authorities have largely relied on poorly trained and equipped conscripts and small elements of Russian regular and irregular forces to address the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast thus far and will likely require additional manpower and more combat-experienced units to fully push Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast.
Meanwhile, the new Ukraine penetration near Snagost, Olgovka, Fanaseevka, Medvezhye and Novyi Put’ of Kursk region continues to develop and grow. If developed, this could push into the rear areas of Russian forces attacking the western margin of the Kursk salient.
Outlook —
Will Russia go big if Ukraine hits deep into it with western weapons? Or is this just another red line that has no teeth? putin has few options at this stage.
1 Do nothing but bluster
2 Use tactical nukes against Ukraine
3 Launch conventional or nuclear attacks on NATO proper territories
4 Declare full war and begin full mobilization.
while he has consistently done #1 since 2022, 3 and 4 pose substantial threats to Russia as the war would escalate into something far more serious. However, putin’s formulations may be taking into account the mushy status of the US, with a brain addled president and a county focused on the Nov elections. Such a brazen attack could well freeze up US responses and throw NATO into a leaderless mess.
Russia has gotten serious in Kursh with the deployment of VDV forces. However, their use deprives Russia the elements needed to make any significant gains on the Pokrovsk axis. The tactical situation as I’ve been able to read is one of mobile warfare, not the set in place defensive operations of the past. Ukraine has the definite advantage in mobile operations both equipment and leadership wise. Russia’s forces have been attacking in a set piece manner via meat attacks, so a mobile force that can out maneuver these attacks has the advantage. Russia’s counteroffensive has also weakened other areas of the border, areas that it appears that Ukraine is in the process of exploiting. Bottom line is this will be an interesting fight as the terms and conditions have changed.
Europe / NATO General –
EU: We will respond quickly and in coordination with international partners to the issue of sending Iranian missiles to Russia
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Sunday’s attack by Israel on Masyaf, Syria was far more complex than originally reported.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Senior IDF officials are reportedly considering accepting the plan to turn Northern Gaza into a closed military zone.
This plan is called the ‘Island Plan,’ and the IDF is considering adopting it, or at least parts of it. Recently, some high-ranking commanders have already expressed support for the move.
According to the plan, the IDF will evacuate more than 200,000 Gazans in Northern Gaza and turn the entire area north of the Netzarim Corridor into a territory under complete Israeli military control.
(Amit Tsarfati)
***
Hamas has profited by at least a half billion dollars from humanitarian aid entering the Gaza Strip, Channel 12 reported on Tuesday.
Hamas steals the humanitarian aid and sells it to the population. It then uses the money to finance recruitment, Boker said, noting that 3,000 terrorists have been added to Hamas’s payroll in northern Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continued search and destroy operations.
***
The Hamas Rafah Brigade has been decimated, at least 2,308 of its operatives have been killed by the Israel Defense Forces, and over 13 kilometers worth of tunnels have been destroyed, military officials tell reporters in the Gaza Strip’s southernmost city.”The Rafah Brigade has been defeated,” Brig. Gen. Itzik Cohen, the general in charge of the offensive in the city, tells reporters from the Philadelphi Corridor.
***
The now-deceased Hamas Khan Yunis Brigade Commander Rafah Salame wrote a letter in May, addressed to Gaza Chief Yahya Sinwar where he pleaded for help and described how his forces were significantly damaged, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant revealed on Wednesday.
Salame wrote to Sinwar, and his brother Muhammad Sinwar, that 90-95% of his rockets were gone.
Further, he said that 65-70% of his anti-tank missiles were gone.
In addition, he stated that at least 50% of his forces were killed and that only 25% remained to fight, with another 25% wounded or fleeing.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-819741
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah asked the residents of southern Lebanon to evacuate the villages in the area following the “increase in the threat level” and as part of preparations for expected Israeli security activity - this was reported this morning in the “Al-Nahar” newspaper
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The air strikes Sunday on Syria covered a far more significant and successful operation conducted by Israel, the raiding and destruction of a key Hezbollah/IRGC missile production facility.
According to U.S. and Israeli Officials, Sunday night’s airstrikes against the City of Masyaf in Western Syria was “cover” for a raid by elements of the “Sayeret Matkal” General Staff Reconnaissance Unit of the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate, who flew by helicopter over 125 miles into Syrian territory in order to destroy a major underground missile production site located at the Scientific Studies and Research Center near Masyaf. During the raid, several Syrian guards were killed before Special Forces Soldiers set explosives across the deep-underground facility, resulting in its total destruction. IAF conducted CAP operations, interdicting reinforcements from getting to the facility during the incursion. In addition to the destruction of the facility, considerable materials of intelligence use were also collected.
***
The Israeli army says it carried out two drone strikes in southern Syria overnight, targeting a Hezbollah operative and another Iran-linked terrorist. The military says the first strike, in the Quneitra area killed Ahmed al-Jaber, a member of Hezbollah’s so-called Golan File unit. Another strike, in the al-Rafid area, targeted a “terrorist who advanced terror acts against the State of Israel, and acted with the cooperation and direction of Iran.” the IDF says.
——— FORECAST ————————-
The decimation of Hamas as a fighting force has been made evident by recent information. Remnants still pose a threat to take over politically should Israeli presence by suddenly withdrawn. This is a big milestone and one necessary for operations to shift towards Hezbollah.
The reported partition plan would deny Hamas rocket launching positions that can reach a large number of densely populated Israeli cities. Increased presence in the southern half of Gaza, along with much stricter controls of imports into Gaza, will make it harder to supply Hamas with the materials and smuggled weapons it would need to rebuild.
The intel collected by the Masyaf raid should have Hezbollah sweating bombs. There would likely be references to where these missiles were to be delivered to - exposing ammo dumps to future Israeli airstrikes. Probably lots of other juicy, actionable info as well.
Hezbollah is recognizing the growing storm about to hit and is calling on civilians to evacuate from the border region. With the reported return of the USS Theodore Roosevelt back to home port, Iranian deterrent is decreased, so Israel needs to act sooner rather than later. Oct 7 is the one year anniversary of the Hamas terror attack that kicked this all off - could be karma if Israel launches its ground campaign on that same date - It would be at about the right time frame as I guesstimate.
Misc of Note –
All the fallout from the debate is blowing back into the faces of democrats
- Closer scrutiny of the illegal policies and imports of Haitians.
- Closer scrutiny of MSM involvement in skewing the message.
This last one is probably the biggest. One of the big statement from trump is how the MSM is totally stacked against him and will do anything to see him lose. Of course those on the left poo-poo’d such claims as delusions and conspiracy, that is until the debate hit. With even reliable democrat pundits raising red flags, the debate affirmed trump’s claims.
And I think this was not lost on the minds of independent voters - especially those who pay attention to the developments. Still, deep in the core of many Americans is the concept of fairness and even on the very surface this debate was skewed to the unfair side. The extent that these follow-on scandals reach the surface of the news cycle is questionable, but then there is the alternative news that has been the bane of the MSM (hence the massive effort to censor the internet) where it will be front and center.
From my preparedness perch, this drama contributes to the assessment that the democrats driving the harris campaign may grow increasingly desperate. Outside of that are the other marxist forces that could trigger many other chaotic events in the days leading up to the election - and beyond.
Frankly, at this stage, no matter who wins a massive &&^%$ show is about to hit the nation. And the time to make preparations is rapidly coming to a close. The political soap opera is but a harbinger of much deeper threats to the country.