Longer than usual because there is a lot of crap happening.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future
C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, a global cabal of 97 cities—representing over 700 million people—working together to impose draconian climate policies that governments wouldn’t dare pass at the national level, has issued a new report “, The Future of Urban Consumption in a 1.5°C World”. This report sets the stage for policies so extreme, they’d make the Green New Deal look reasonable.
OBSERVATION - I encourage you to read the link. So dystopian is the views and plans, it almost reads like a bad apocalyptic novel. But its out there. Below are US cities that have signed onto the C40 bandwagon -
Austin
Boston
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
Miami
New Orleans
New York City
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Portland
San Francisco
Seattle
Washington, DC
This is just another example of how the WEF/Globalists are using smaller govt entities to press forward with their agenda that it cannot press on a much larger scale.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
(FO) More than 300 agricultural industry groups warned Congress that if a new farm bill is not passed, U.S. farmers will face challenges seeking operating credit for the 2025 crop year amid a “farm economy that has taken a downward spiral.”
The ag industry groups said if a farm bill with meaningful investments in commodity programs and crop insurance is not passed, thousands of family farms would be forced to shut down.
Ag economists say the industry is on the brink of, or already in a recession
OBSERVATION - wuhan disruptions; bird flu; explosive inflation on fuel, fertilizer and equipment; ; loan rates and massive drought have all combined over the past few years to hammer the agriculture industry. Govt regulatory and other programs have done little to take the additional burdens off their backs. Decline in agriculture production will lead to marked increases at the grocery stores.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier is reportedly heading back to US shores and its home of Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia after an extended Mideast tour. This brings to an end a rare Pentagon decision to have two US carrier’s patrolling Middle East region waters, in the wake of soaring tensions between Israel and Iran following the Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran this summer.
There are still smaller US warships currently in the Eastern Mediterranean, at a moment Israel and Iran-linked Hezbollah continue daily exchanges of fire. Additionally, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier remains in the Gulf of Oman.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/one-of-two-us-aircraft-carriers-in-the-middle-east-heads-home/
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee on Thursday dropped two criminal counts against President Trump in Fani Willis’s lawfare RICO case.
In August 2023, corrupt Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis indicted President Trump and 18 co-defendants for daring to challenge the 2020 election.
Judge McAfee said two of the counts related to conspiracy and filing false documents are outside of Fani Willis’s jurisdiction since she is a local District Attorney and not a federal prosecutor.
A total of five of the 13 charges of the original indictment have now been dropped against President Trump. Judge McAfee dropped three of the charges earlier this year.
thegatewaypundit.com
OBSERVATION - The corruption charges Willis is facing is still working its way through the process. The case against trump is falling apart.
***
Fallout continues to hammer ABC news and the reprobate ‘moderators’ handling of the trump ambush.
Now more is coming out. Reportedly today an ABC whistleblower is suppose to release evidence that harris was given notice of the questions to be asked and notice that she would not be fact checked. If true, this is a serious breach of journalistic ethics and a death blow to what little reputation ABC news has. For Muir and Davis, it should be career terminating, just like what happened to Donna Brazile, a CNN contributor at the time, when she sent the Clinton camp advanced copies of the debate questions.
Next, ABC News failed to disclose that Kamala Harris and ABC News anchor Linsey Davis, who co-moderated Tuesday night’s debate between Harris and President Trump, are sorority sisters in the influential Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority, Inc. AKA formed a PAC in August after Harris became the Democrats’ presidential nominee.
The sorority connection is one more possible clue as to why the debate moderated by Davis and ABC World News Tonight anchor David Muir was so one-sided in favor of Harris. Muir and Davis interrupted Trump numerous times to fact check and argue with him while they did not fact check Harris even one time.
Numerous ABC “fact checks” on trump have been fact checked and ABC (and harris) have been found to be the ones lying.
RELATED - Mark Penn, a pollster and senior adviser for the Clintons from 1995-2008 and co-chair of the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, told the “John Solomon Reports” podcast Thursday that “suspicion is really quite high” that ABC colluded with the harris campaign and a review of internal texts and emails should be done by an independent party to find out whether there was an effort to rig the debate’s outcome.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/mark-penn-abc-donald-trump/2024/09/12/id/1180149/
***
harris is now all about debating, wanting another shot at Trump. Trump has said that’s all, no mulligans for harris. This in the face of growing evidence that the debate has helped Trump more than harris - especially among independents.
***
Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose warned election boards to be extra vigilant in the weeks before the November election after an investigation uncovered illegal voter registration forms circulating in Clark County.
In a media advisory, the secretary of state’s office noted, “The office’s Election Integrity Unit recently concluded an investigation into the origins of an illegal voter registration form translated into the Haitian Creole language. The Clark County Board of Elections reported this form to our office after rejecting its submission by a local applicant.”
In a memo to election officials, Hun Yi, director of investigations for the Secretary of State’s Public Integrity Division, said, “The Board confirmed they’ve only received one of these unauthorized forms, but they rightly recognized it as illegal and worked with my team to track down its source with the help of a county government assistance office.”
LaRose’s press release noted an ongoing investigation into “evidence of a pattern of fraudulent voter registration activity in multiple counties under the paid employment of a group called Black Fork Strategies.”
Black Fork’s website boasts that its goal is “building long-term progressive power” through canvassing and voter registration, among other things.
Last month, LaRose’s office referred a number of election fraud cases involving Black Fork for prosecution.
OBSERVATION - The Haitians eating cats issue is blowing up in the face of democrats as increased attention is now being given to the claims and is resulting in other abuses being detected. The receipts for the assault on pets and wildlife are increasingly documented, now back door illegal voter registration efforts are coming to light.
Also coming under the spot light are these non-profit NGO entities who are supposed to be assisting these Haitians to integrate into our society and culture doing absolutely nothing except raking in millions of federal dollars.
It has also brought to light the abuses the regime has inflicted on the country in its rush to flood the country with illegals of all flavors.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden made news putting on a Trump hat at a post 9/11 gathering at a fire station.
Illegal Immigration –
See “POLITICAL FRONT” above for Haitians being illegally registered to vote.
China –
News buried by all the other stuff, is relating back to the ongoing property and associated economic crisis still rocking China.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Putin said that the use of Western long-range precision weapons against Russia by Ukraine would signal direct NATO involvement in the war in Ukraine. He added that Ukraine uses data and intelligence from NATO countries to coordinate strikes because they don’t have such data themselves.
OBSERVATIONs - See Ukraine below
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range, fair but with scattered light rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 of 26 Shahed drones overnight.
A large Russian ammunition depot has reportedly detonated in Mariupol
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Fighting there is smothered by the fog of war.
Russian claims the liberation of about a dozen towns on the western margin of the Kursk salient.
Ukrainian forces continued counterattacking in areas where Russian forces have launched counterattacks and launched additional attacks outside of the salient, making gains in Glushkovsky Raion (west of Korenevsky Raion).
Russian authorities have reportedly deployed additional elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast and may begin redeploying more combat-experienced forces to support ongoing Russian counterattacks and future counteroffensive operations against Ukrainian forces in Russia.
ISW observed reports that elements of the 137th VDV Regiment were operating in the Siversk direction as of late August 2024. Elements of the 106th VDV Division’s 51st VDV Regiment are also reportedly operating in Kursk Oblast.
Russian authorities have largely relied on poorly trained and equipped conscripts and small elements of Russian regular and irregular forces to address the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast thus far and will likely require additional manpower and more combat-experienced units to fully push Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast.
Meanwhile, the new Ukraine penetration near Snagost, Olgovka, Fanaseevka, Medvezhye and Novyi Put’ of Kursk region continues to develop and grow. If developed, this could push into the rear areas of Russian forces attacking the western margin of the Kursk salient.
Outlook —
Will Russia go big if Ukraine hits deep into it with western weapons? Or is this just another red line that has no teeth? putin has few options at this stage.
1 Do nothing but bluster
2 Use tactical nukes against Ukraine
3 Launch conventional or nuclear attacks on NATO proper territories
4 Declare full war and begin full mobilization.
while he has consistently done #1 since 2022, 3 and 4 pose substantial threats to Russia as the war would escalate into something far more serious. However, putin’s formulations may be taking into account the mushy status of the US, with a brain addled president and a county focused on the Nov elections. Such a brazen attack could well freeze up US responses and throw NATO into a leaderless mess.
Russia has gotten serious in Kursh with the deployment of VDV forces. However, their use deprives Russia the elements needed to make any significant gains on the Pokrovsk axis. The tactical situation as I’ve been able to read is one of mobile warfare, not the set in place defensive operations of the past. Ukraine has the definite advantage in mobile operations both equipment and leadership wise. Russia’s forces have been attacking in a set piece manner via meat attacks, so a mobile force that can out maneuver these attacks has the advantage. Russia’s counteroffensive has also weakened other areas of the border, areas that it appears that Ukraine is in the process of exploiting. Bottom line is this will be an interesting fight as the terms and conditions have changed.
Europe / NATO General –
EU: We will respond quickly and in coordination with international partners to the issue of sending Iranian missiles to Russia
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Sunday’s attack by Israel on Masyaf, Syria was far more complex than originally reported.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Senior IDF officials are reportedly considering accepting the plan to turn Northern Gaza into a closed military zone.
This plan is called the ‘Island Plan,’ and the IDF is considering adopting it, or at least parts of it. Recently, some high-ranking commanders have already expressed support for the move.
According to the plan, the IDF will evacuate more than 200,000 Gazans in Northern Gaza and turn the entire area north of the Netzarim Corridor into a territory under complete Israeli military control.
(Amit Tsarfati)
***
Hamas has profited by at least a half billion dollars from humanitarian aid entering the Gaza Strip, Channel 12 reported on Tuesday.
Hamas steals the humanitarian aid and sells it to the population. It then uses the money to finance recruitment, Boker said, noting that 3,000 terrorists have been added to Hamas’s payroll in northern Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continued search and destroy operations.
***
The Hamas Rafah Brigade has been decimated, at least 2,308 of its operatives have been killed by the Israel Defense Forces, and over 13 kilometers worth of tunnels have been destroyed, military officials tell reporters in the Gaza Strip’s southernmost city.”The Rafah Brigade has been defeated,” Brig. Gen. Itzik Cohen, the general in charge of the offensive in the city, tells reporters from the Philadelphi Corridor.
***
The now-deceased Hamas Khan Yunis Brigade Commander Rafah Salame wrote a letter in May, addressed to Gaza Chief Yahya Sinwar where he pleaded for help and described how his forces were significantly damaged, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant revealed on Wednesday.
Salame wrote to Sinwar, and his brother Muhammad Sinwar, that 90-95% of his rockets were gone.
Further, he said that 65-70% of his anti-tank missiles were gone.
In addition, he stated that at least 50% of his forces were killed and that only 25% remained to fight, with another 25% wounded or fleeing.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-819741
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah asked the residents of southern Lebanon to evacuate the villages in the area following the “increase in the threat level” and as part of preparations for expected Israeli security activity - this was reported this morning in the “Al-Nahar” newspaper
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
The air strikes Sunday on Syria covered a far more significant and successful operation conducted by Israel, the raiding and destruction of a key Hezbollah/IRGC missile production facility.
According to U.S. and Israeli Officials, Sunday night’s airstrikes against the City of Masyaf in Western Syria was “cover” for a raid by elements of the “Sayeret Matkal” General Staff Reconnaissance Unit of the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate, who flew by helicopter over 125 miles into Syrian territory in order to destroy a major underground missile production site located at the Scientific Studies and Research Center near Masyaf. During the raid, several Syrian guards were killed before Special Forces Soldiers set explosives across the deep-underground facility, resulting in its total destruction. IAF conducted CAP operations, interdicting reinforcements from getting to the facility during the incursion. In addition to the destruction of the facility, considerable materials of intelligence use were also collected.
***
The Israeli army says it carried out two drone strikes in southern Syria overnight, targeting a Hezbollah operative and another Iran-linked terrorist. The military says the first strike, in the Quneitra area killed Ahmed al-Jaber, a member of Hezbollah’s so-called Golan File unit. Another strike, in the al-Rafid area, targeted a “terrorist who advanced terror acts against the State of Israel, and acted with the cooperation and direction of Iran.” the IDF says.
——— FORECAST ————————-
The decimation of Hamas as a fighting force has been made evident by recent information. Remnants still pose a threat to take over politically should Israeli presence by suddenly withdrawn. This is a big milestone and one necessary for operations to shift towards Hezbollah.
The reported partition plan would deny Hamas rocket launching positions that can reach a large number of densely populated Israeli cities. Increased presence in the southern half of Gaza, along with much stricter controls of imports into Gaza, will make it harder to supply Hamas with the materials and smuggled weapons it would need to rebuild.
The intel collected by the Masyaf raid should have Hezbollah sweating bombs. There would likely be references to where these missiles were to be delivered to - exposing ammo dumps to future Israeli airstrikes. Probably lots of other juicy, actionable info as well.
Hezbollah is recognizing the growing storm about to hit and is calling on civilians to evacuate from the border region. With the reported return of the USS Theodore Roosevelt back to home port, Iranian deterrent is decreased, so Israel needs to act sooner rather than later. Oct 7 is the one year anniversary of the Hamas terror attack that kicked this all off - could be karma if Israel launches its ground campaign on that same date - It would be at about the right time frame as I guesstimate.
Misc of Note –
All the fallout from the debate is blowing back into the faces of democrats
- Closer scrutiny of the illegal policies and imports of Haitians.
- Closer scrutiny of MSM involvement in skewing the message.
This last one is probably the biggest. One of the big statement from trump is how the MSM is totally stacked against him and will do anything to see him lose. Of course those on the left poo-poo’d such claims as delusions and conspiracy, that is until the debate hit. With even reliable democrat pundits raising red flags, the debate affirmed trump’s claims.
And I think this was not lost on the minds of independent voters - especially those who pay attention to the developments. Still, deep in the core of many Americans is the concept of fairness and even on the very surface this debate was skewed to the unfair side. The extent that these follow-on scandals reach the surface of the news cycle is questionable, but then there is the alternative news that has been the bane of the MSM (hence the massive effort to censor the internet) where it will be front and center.
From my preparedness perch, this drama contributes to the assessment that the democrats driving the harris campaign may grow increasingly desperate. Outside of that are the other marxist forces that could trigger many other chaotic events in the days leading up to the election - and beyond.
Frankly, at this stage, no matter who wins a massive &&^%$ show is about to hit the nation. And the time to make preparations is rapidly coming to a close. The political soap opera is but a harbinger of much deeper threats to the country.
ABC not only doesn't care, it is proud of its actions.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future
The Hague will ban street advertising for fossil fuels, according to a notice published on the Dutch city’s website, as a number of cities worldwide crack down on publicity for fossil fuels and high-emissions sectors.
“The city council of The Hague adopted two proposals to ban fossil advertising in outdoor spaces,” council spokesman Jordy Kruse told the AFP news agency on Friday.
The first proposal informs advertising agencies that fossil fuel advertising is not permitted while the second bans all fossil fuel advertising in public spaces, Kruse said.
“We hope that this law will also give a signal to other cities to do the same to fight climate change,” Leonie Gerritsen, a Hague council member for the Party for Animals, one of the main drivers of the legislation, told AFP.
In June, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged every country to enact bans on ads for fossil fuel companies, which he called “the godfathers of climate chaos”.
OBSERVATION - Incrementalism, on a global scale.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
— Downgrade due to lack of physical activity, but high due to rhetoric.
***
Newly released crime statistics show violent crimes, including aggravated assaults, robberies, and rapes, have increased under the Biden-Harris government. During the recent debate between Donald J. Trump and Kamala Harris, the former president said crime is “through the roof” since he left office, driven in part by migrant crime. ABC News moderator David Muir interjected to claim, “The FBI says overall violent crime is coming down,” but the new figures—released by the Biden-Harris Justice Department—vindicate the America First leader.In 2020, Trump’s last full year in office, 1,569,390 violent crimes, excluding simple assaults, were recorded. The figure had risen to 2,485,830 by 2023. (Simple assaults are also up, from 2,988,770 to 3,933,230.)
Rapes and sexual assaults, in particular, are up from 319,950 in 2020 to 481,020 in 2023. Robberies are up from 437,260 to 731,620, and so-called “stranger violence” is up from 1,973,200 to an astonishing 3,233,400.
OBSERVATION - We knew this all along and I’m surprised that the DoJ of all would suddenly release this updated information.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has said he would not rule out an outcome for the US economy which is widely considered to be worse than a recession.
The chief executive of the biggest bank in the US said this week ‘the worst income is stagflation,’ which he would not ‘take off the table.’
OBSERVATION - Many economists are not convinced that the economy is headed for sunshine and lollypops.
***
Stock and metals markets are getting excited about a potential half point drop in the fed rate. Be careful what you wish for as such a drop has indications that the Fed realizes things are not coming in softly and are looking at braking hard. Next week’s fed meeting will tell all.
***
The soaring U.S. national debt has led to interest payments surpassing $1 trillion for the first time in history.
NOTE - Americans generally don’t feel this directly, but the burden coming from govt activities are holding down the economy in general. When the piper comes, it will be really ugly - and this growth is deliberate, setting the US up for the ‘great reset’.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
***
Pennsylvania Supreme Court has ruled that undated and misdated mail-in ballots cannot be counted. This is a huge win for Trump and vote integrity.
***
Fallout continues from the ABC debate debacle -
Penn and Stein from the WSJ say it pretty clear, echoing what I said in an earlier post
“When referees put their thumbs on the scale, the game changes. The results have to be thrown out, we are robbed of our time, and democracy is drained of its meaning. A presidential debate shouldn’t be a staged wrestling match. It should feature two candidates on a level playing field so voters can make up their minds free of interference. Anything less makes a mockery of our institutions. ABC should have fact-checked both candidates or neither. Fact-checking only one was the worst possible decision. Even a Democrat can tell a whopper.”
“Time and again we find that supposedly neutral democratic institutions have been corrupted by bias. Debate moderators must check their biases and seek to be scrupulously fair, or they shouldn’t do the job. They should observe strict rules and come from a variety of networks. Most important, they shouldn’t interfere but rather trust voters to make their own decisions. ABC undermined the system for everyone.”
***
Linsey Davis, one of the moderators of ABC’s three-against-one Donald Trump-Kamala Harris debate Tuesday evening, has come out as being proud of her interference in the debate.
Biden / Harris Watch –
On Friday, the vice president sat down with a local ABC News affiliate in Philadelphia to answer questions for a whole 10 minutes. It went down hill fast.
Reporter: What are your specific plans to bring down prices?
Kamala: “I grew up a middle class kid... I grew up in a neighborhood of folks who were very proud of their lawn. Ya know?”
Harris: “My focus is very much about what we need to do over the next 10-20 years to catch up to the 21st century around, again, capacity, but also challenges.”
OBSERVATION - Just a couple of the word salads spewed by harris in the interview. The interviewer is known to be a ‘fixer’, one capable of setting the parameters of an interview to improve the public status of a candidate. The look on his face during that 10 minutes tell all - it was a train wreck.
***
Biden deliberately carried a bright red hat thought by some to be a maga hat as he entered af1 today. Some think he is sending a message to someone.
Illegal Immigration –
A resident of Springfield, OH, has told a city commission meeting that locals are being displaced from their homes to make way for Haitian migrants.
The man, who has not been named, said the federal government was paying “triple the rent” for Haitians arriving in the town, thus incentivizing landlords to prioritize immigrants over existing residents.
Addressing the city commission, the resident – who said he’d worked with the homeless community for more than 25 years – said he didn’t know of “a single homeless Haitian in this town because they all got vouchers” from the federal government.
OBSERVATION - The massive cat campaign has caused the MSM to unwillingly uncover a much more sinister side to the mayhem the influx of 20K haitians into a small town of 60K has caused. Creating homeless CITIZENS, substantial mayhem on the streets from haitian drivers, increased crime, increased trashing of neighborhoods, etc. And the MSM is suddenly discovering this is happening in towns all across America. Americans see this, knowing it to be happening and are rejecting democrat gaslighting excuses.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The Russian Security Council today discussed options for Russia’s response to the use of Western long-range precision weapons against it, a source told EZh. The discussion did not concern the use of nuclear weapons; it discussed measures to contain Western countries. This included both active containment measures and political and propaganda actions.
Russian leadership has issued a follow-up statement to President Vladimir Putin’s Thursday brief video address warning that if the US and UK authorize Ukraine to pursue long-range strikes on Russian soil, then NATO and the Russian Federation will be in an official state of war.
On Friday Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, Vassily Nebenzia, informed the UN Security council that NATO countries would “start an open war” in allowing Western long-range missiles to target Russia.
“If such a decision is made, that means NATO countries are starting an open war against Russia,” Moscow’s envoy introduced. “In that case, we will obviously be forced to make certain decisions, with all the attendant consequences for Western aggressors.”
Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun publicly announced today that “China will militarily support Russia if NATO attacks Russia.”
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range, fair but with scattered light rain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Another huge Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 76 launched, 72 were shot down by air defense. One drone strayed into Belarus.
Use of Shahed-type drones is about to cross 1000 during last 30 days. Russia has used, at least 5429 Shahed-type drones since the 13th September of 2023(last year).
Turkish ship carrying 26,550 tons of grain to Egypt from Ukraine was attacked by Russia with a Kh-22 cruise missile launched by a Tu-22M supersonic bomber in Romanian Exclusive Economic Zone in the Black Sea.
It appears that the US and Britain are backing away from allowing Ukraine to use its long range weapons to attack Russia proper, apparently fearing Russian responses.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Russian forces appear to have stalled in their counter offensive. An assessment by ISW indicates many reasons
(ISW). The Russian military continues to counterattack throughout the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast but will likely have to redeploy additional elements from elsewhere in the theater to Kursk to establish a force grouping capable of a sustained counteroffensive operation.
Russian authorities have largely relied on poorly-trained and equipped conscripts and small elements of Russian regular and irregular forces to address the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast thus far... and it is unlikely that most of the current Russian force grouping in Kursk is comprised of combat-experienced units.
A Russian counteroffensive operation to retake territory seized by Ukrainian forces in Kursk will very likely require even more manpower and materiel... than Russia has already concentrated in the area — especially if most of the already committed units lack combat experience.
The Russian military will most certainly have to redeploy units already committed to ongoing offensive operations... or operational reserves from Ukraine to Kursk Oblast to field the combat-effective units needed for a large counteroffensive operation and then subsequently guard the international border against future Ukrainian incursions.
Meanwhile, Ukraine forces have penetrated the border in two locations now further to the west of the Kursk salient. One of the biggest has forces moving deeper into Glushkovskyi district in Kursk following the border breaktrough near Novyi Put’. Note, this breakthrough, if it becomes sizable enough, will threaten the rear areas of the Russian counter attack.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Russian forces are pushing southward and have managed to capture Dolynivka village and Zhelanne Pershe village
Russian Territory –
Russia has repeatedly deployed 4 missile carriers with missile capacity of 24 Kaliber missiles into the Black Sea.
Outlook —
Looks like the west has blinked over Moscow’s latest threats. This mean Ukraine will have to continue to develop and build long range weapons on its own.
Looks like Russia’s response to the Kursk incursion will be to pull even more combat efficient units from other parts of the front. This means current offensive actions - particularly the Pokrovsk effort - will find it harder to sustain operations and may find themselves open to localized counterattacks.
I think an example of this is the new border crossing assaults by Ukraine. It should be noted that Russian forces in this area have had their logistics severely interrupted by the loss of bridges (regular and pontoon). Add to it any forces syphoned off for the Kursk operation. Now instead of looking east, Russia has to face a growing threat from the west.
The volume of Shahed’s used by Russia is impressive. Iranian and Russia production must be exceeding 30 /day just to keep up with the use. They are cheap to build and useful in overwhelming ADA assets, weakening their supplies of ammo, and allowing cruise and other missiles to penetrate, causing greater damage.
Future developments continue to be the pressed offensive in Pokrovsk and the fight in the Kursk sector.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Though not openly announced, it appear that the decision to go forward with an attack into S Lebanon to remove Hezbollah has been made.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
US official: Israel has made the decision to start a wide war against Hezbollah
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continued search and destroy operations.
Hamas managed to fire two rockets towards Ashkelon, one launch was intercepted and the other fell in the maritime space, there were no casualties
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army: About 35 rockets were fired from Lebanon towards the Galilee. We intercepted a number of them and most of them fell in open areas.
Israeli army: We targeted a weapons depot, a missile platform and military buildings in Majdal Zun, Jabin and Blida in southern Lebanon
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Military reinforcements and crowds of the Assad regime, supported by Iranian militias, are heading to the western Damascus countryside, where Russian-led military maneuvers are being held in the area. Information indicates that these crowds and maneuvers aim to repel the Israeli army in the event that it begins to penetrate southwestern Syria.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Clearly, the Israeli emphasis has switched to face Hezbollah. The call by Hezbollah for civilians to evacuate indicates that by their view, things are going to happen soon.
The assembly of a hodge podge of Iranian backed forces in Syria suggests that they may attempt to attack Israel’s flank and not just ‘defend’ Syria. Blending in with a ‘Russian’ exercise grants them some protection from IAF strikes, but that won’t last should the shooting start.
Only thing left is timing, and Israel is in command of that aspect.
Iran –
Iran has increased its activities at two nuclear sites that were key to its early nuclear weapons program two decades ago, according to a report by the Institute for Science and International Security