Threat Matrix 2024

Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.

2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy

- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.

It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.

For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.

How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.

Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.

My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.

Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.

Its been 23 years and we’ve forgotten. . . . . .

Yesterday got hit by other events. Doubling up today

Terrorism - Moderate THREAT as of Sep 2, 2024

Remembering 9/11 - as far too many have no clue.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

Debates ???
NBC September 25?

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****

Dust settling after last night’s “debate”. ABC getting hammered for the gross bias of their so called ‘moderators’, essentially making it a 3 on 1 event. Folks, trump knew he was entering the lions den last night, he’s no fool. By doing so he exposed the shallowness of harris, who hid behind the moderators as well as exposed the media bias to the country. Most rate as a draw, while the far left claim a victory for harris. If the needle moves it will affect independents and undecided towards Trump more than harris just due to the gross unfairness of the ganging up on trump. It will certainly galvanize Trump’s base.

Whether or not the debate on the 25 is still a go or no is still in the air. harris will likely attempt to run as far away from it as possible after last night, but may be forced back if her polls sinks

Illegal Immigration –

Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua have reportedly taken over a hotel in El Paso, TX.

The El Paso County Attorney’s office just filed a restraining order against the hotel. They allege the owner has allowed illegal activity to go on for months. Police have been called there over 700 times in 2 years.

OBSERVATION - These events will continue to grow as these and other criminal gangs establish themselves deeper into the US - especially under the protective blanket of ‘sanctuary ‘ cities and states.

North/South Korea –

North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un gave a speech on Monday in which he vowed an “exponential” increase in North Korea’s nuclear arsenal to meet “the various threats posed by the United States and its followers.”

Kim said the United States and “its followers” (by which he presumably meant South Korea) pose a “grave threat” to the security of his Communist dictatorship with their policies of “reckless expansion.”

“The obvious conclusion is that the nuclear force of the DPRK and the posture capable of properly using it for ensuring the state’s right to security in any time should be more thoroughly perfected,” Kim said in a speech commemorating the 76th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean state.

https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2024/09/10/kim-jong-un-repeats-vow-exponential-growth-north-koreas-nuclear-arsenal/

OBSERVATION - A rather typical speech by Kim echoing his pasts calls to increase the country’s nuclear capabilities. Perhaps a little more strident this year since ties to Russia have increased through the supply of arms for the Ukraine war.

Russia -

*****

Kremlin says Moscow will respond if Kyiv uses US ATACMS missiles to strike Russia

Logistics –

Beijing is giving Moscow “very substantial” help to beef up its war machine, and in return Russia is handing over its closely guarded military tech on submarines and missiles, US Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell said

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range, fair but with scattered light rain.
NOTE - Longer range forecasts show the summer high pressure ridge over Europe breaking down and a significant storm developing over N Italy and into the Balkans. This potentially severe wet weather mass may eventually be headed towards Ukraine.

RUMINT –
Barely rumint. There are growing reports from multiple angles and sources that the US and Britain are going to give Ukraine the green light to used western weapons systems to strike deeper and harder into Russia. One piece of evidence is the focus on Iranian missiles being delivered to Russia - one source of justification for the policy change. Unclear as to just how much free hand Ukraine will have.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy drone wars
Yesterday - Ukrainian air defense shot down 38/46 Shahed drones
0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
0/1 Kh-31P anti-radar missileRussia faced
Additionally, 3 Shahed drones left Ukrainian territory and three more were lost, likely due to EW measures.

Overnight, Russia launched another missile and drone attack on Ukraine.

Shot down:
0/6 Kh-31P anti radar missiles
0/2 S-300 ballistic missiles
0/1 Iskander-M ballistic missile
20/25 Shahed drones
Another 5 Shahed drones fell independently, likely due to EW measures.

Reports of drone strikes overnight against Russia. An estimated 150 Ukraine drones were launched over much of Russia. Explosions reported at the Domodedovo and Sheremetyevo airports in Moscow along with explosions in the Bryansk, Smolensk, and Tula regions. For the first time, Ukrainian drones are striking Domodedovo International Airport in Moscow. It’s the second-largest airport in Moscow after Sheremetyevo Airport.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Situation appears to be static, though Russian claims a counter offensive is underway, most likely propaganda.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian forces are pressing the attack all across the axis.

Outlook —

Though Russia has redeployed some critical assets deeper into Russia, primarily aircraft, the lumbering behemoth of its logistics and other support assets likely remains clustered in highly targetable sites well within range of western weapons. Part of it may be denial that Ukraine will be allowed to act, part may well be that Russian planners are having enough problems just sustaining the logistic train to the front lines to have to now suddenly disrupt that train to disperse these facilities into smaller, more survivable elements.

We’ve seen throughout this war that Russia’s logistics are extremely vulnerable and when cut off, the troops become vulnerable to Ukraine attacks. Deep strikes will increase this vulnerability .

Now potential targets are not likely restricted to military only, but infrastructure and industry. Oil refineries and other facilities, power generation, rail network and yes, the Kerch Strait Bridge all will have bullseyes on them. Russia’s air defenses, already stretched, will find it more difficult to protect from and even survive Ukraine attacks. Even now, with simpler drone attacks, Ukraine is having success penetrating to Moscow.

This brings us to Moscow’s response and a lot depends on the targets hit and how close to Moscow they come. putin has lost some of the PR against deep strikes just by his attacks on civilian targets of late as well as his non-action when previous red lines have been ‘crossed’. I have little doubt that once Ukraine deep strikes occur that Russia will redouble large missile/drone attacks (likely drawing upon the Iranian and remaining NK missile) aimed at govt and civilian targets. There will be nuclear saber rattling too, but I think that will be all he will do. Were putin to order a tactical nuke strike(s) on Ukraine, multiple NATO countries like Poland, Romania and the Baltics would respond. All heck would ensue afterwards.

On the ground, an aspect I’ve noticed, but not really tracked, is the substantial drop in the numbers of Russian tanks and APCs reportedly being destroyed on the front. Some OSINT analysts are noting two trends, the biggest is that those elements are in very short supply and reserved for major operations and two, because they are in short supply, Russian is relying on meat attack and alternative transportation of the troops to the front (hence the ATVs, motor cycles and more civilian vehicles racing to the drop-off points for the ground assaults. Russian glide bombing support has also been a game changer in providing more firepower to an attack than its dwindling artillery elements can provide. These are standoff munitions which means the Russian jets don’t have to be significantly exposed to Ukraine ADA assets.

The critical fight to watch is the Pokrovsk axis, as it has Russia’s highest priority. Ukraine is reinforcing the sector with seasoned, remanned and rearmed brigades and will make the Russian efforts very difficult to achieve.

Europe / NATO General –

(FO) The Polish Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Defense, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, called on NATO to have a joint response to Russian drones entering Latvian and Romanian airspace over the weekend. The Latvian defense ministry recalled an agreement at the NATO Washington Summit this summer to “strengthen air defense on NATO’s eastern flank by introducing a more active rotational air defense model.”

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Intense airstrikes in S Lebanon.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

IDF Spokesman:
Earlier today, IDF forces detained a convoy of UN vehicles in northern Gaza, due to intelligence that a number of Palestinian suspects were present in the convoy.
IDF forces delayed the convoy in order to question the suspects.
UN later statement said “Our staff held by Israel in Gaza have been released.”

Speaking to troops during a drill simulating a ground offensive in Lebanon, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel is moving its focus to the northern front as it aims to soon achieve its objectives in the Gaza Strip. “The center of gravity is moving to the north, we are nearing the completion of our missions in the south, but we have a task here that has not been carried out, and this mission is to change the security situation and return the residents to their homes”

A probable report indicates Washington has warned Israel that U.S. naval forces cannot remain deployed indefinitely in the West Asia region to protect the country.

The report indicated that the U.S. sent a message urging Israel to reduce tensions with Hezbollah and Iran, as the presence of U.S. aircraft carriers in the area is temporary. “The aircraft carriers will not be able to stay in the area forever,” the report quoted.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Continued search and destroy operations.

Overnight, the Israeli army says it struck prominent Hamas operatives at a command room embedded within the Israeli-designated humanitarian zone in southern Gaza’s Khan Younis. The military says it took steps to mitigate harm to civilians in the strike. Palestinian media report dozens of casualties in the attack, and say that the strikes hit a tent camp for displaced Gazans.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Buildings used by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon were targeted in airstrikes yesterday, the IDF says. The sites were hit by fighter jets in the towns of Ayta ash-Shab, Khiam, and Naqoura.

Hezbollah confirms in an official announcement the death of Muhammad al-Sha’ar, a commander in the Radwan force who was killed this morning in the Bekaa in Lebanon.

Overnight, four different areas in southern Lebanon were attacked.
Air Force fighter jets attacked during the night in the areas of Al Jabin, A-Nakura, Deir Sirin and Zabkin in southern Lebanon, about 30 launchers and military infrastructures of the terrorist organization Hezbollah, which posed a threat to the citizens of the State of Israel.

Also, IDF forces attacked with artillery in the A-Dahira area in southern Lebanon.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Police say they foiled an attempt to smuggle some 74 handguns into Israel from Jordan yesterday via the Rabin Crossing. The incident occurred on the same day as a deadly attack at the Allenby Bridge Crossing between the West Bank and Jordan. Customs inspectors at the Rabin terminal, near Eilat, found 74 Glock pistols and 61 magazines inside a Mitsubishi vehicle that was trying to cross into Israel from Jordan, police say.The driver of the car and a passenger, residents of the Bedouin town of Bir Hadaj and and another Bedouin community near Yeruham, were detained.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

The military spokesman of the Houthis announces they shot down another American MQ9 drone - the second in 72 hours and the ninth since the start of the war in Gaza.

Each MQ9 costs about 32 million dollars.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel is establishing end game controls over Gaza which include control of the Phildelphi corridor, a 3 km buffer around the entire territory and control of the Nezarim corridor across the middle of Gaza. In all, this represents about 30% of Gaza. Hamas’ direct threat to Israel has been essentially destroyed, now only the search and destroy operations to further eliminate hamas leadership, followers, facilities and arms/munitions to prohibit hamas from regaining power.

This change in Gaza operations is one of the key indicators I’ve noted months ago that the emphasis is going to switch to Hezbollah. Israeli civilian and military leadership have increasingly over the past week or so, been much more outspoken at the prospect of entering Lebanon, likely preparing the citizens for a much more substantial war.

There seems over the past week to be a greater intensity in IAF strikes on key Hezbollah facilities across Lebanon, designed to significantly degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities. Far more rocket/missile launching sites getting hammered.

Finally, noting that the US has likely informed Israel that it cannot maintain US military presence in the region on standby for very much longer may instigate earlier rather than later attack on Hezbollah. Israel is relying in part on the western military presence to keep Iran in check. War with Hezbollah would likely stir the delayed Iranian revenge response. How long can the US sustain the deployment of forces? The reports out there don’t say but if history is any teacher, I would expect that not much more than another month.

Israel has the capability to initiate operations within a month to key upon the presence of western military elements. Such an all out war would also force these western forces to hold off any planned drawdown of forces. The “October Surprise” may come from an unlikely quarter this year.

Iran hasn’t been all that quiet either. As noted, actions in the West Bank have stepped up lately as Iran attempts to develop another front against Israel there. Terrorist elements are receiving more arms and munitions being smuggled in via Syria/Jordan and increasing attacks on Jews. Israel security forces have been reinforced by drone and IAF strikes - a first for Israel in this situation. What the terrorists in the West Bank lack are the extensive underground facilities Hamas and Hezbollah have as well as the heavier weapons. A different urban setting, but one that won’t divert too many resources away from the Hezbollah operations.

Jordan is facing a trying situation. Relatively friendly towards israel, it is facing rising palestinian and radical islamic forces that could threaten the rule of the king. So in part to keep them (temporally) from turning their guns on him, he may be giving a more hands off approach on the regions bordering the West Bank. He will have to eventually deal with the growing, iranian influenced arabs in the region.

Iran –

U.S. Secretary of State Blinken says the US is announcing new sanctions against Iran.
“[These sanctions] will be a significant economic consequences for Tehran’s actions.

US Treasury: Sanctions on Iranian Aviation and Russian Ships

UK foreign office: The UK Government and partners respond to Iran’s transfer of Ballistic Missiles to Russia: UK and E3 partners cancel bilateral arrangements with Iran, which will restrict Iran Air services into the UK and Europe; UK and US announce co-ordinated sanctions against Iranian and Russian individuals and organizations; Russian cargo ships sanctioned for their role in transporting military supplies from Iran to Russia

Iranian Foreign Minister: Tehran did not deliver ballistic missiles to Russia

Seasons are a changing here in the Redoubt. First major mountain snow warning of the season and my furnace kicked on overnight.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
— Downgrade due to lack of physical activity, but high due to rhetoric.

***
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) claims 30 percent of Republicans refuse to support Democratic Party candidates because of their views on women, race, and LGBTQ issues. Speaking with podcast host Kara Swisher at the 2024 Texas Tribune Festival, the California Democrat insisted that these voters will never cast a ballot for Democrats, which is why the 2024 presidential race between former President Donald J. Trump and Kamala Harris is so close.“There are people who will never be, shall we say, inclined to support Democrats because of – they just have a different orientation toward women, people of color, LGBTQ, you know, they just are not ever going to be there,” Pelosi told Swisher before continuing: ” So, say that’s about like 30 percent or something like that… of the Republicans.”

Pelosi’s remarks are reminiscent of similar comments made by Hillary Clinton during the 2016 presidential election in which she labeled half of Trump’s political base as a “basket of deplorable” and cited similar perceived prejudices listed by the former Speaker.

https://thenationalpulse.com/2024/09/11/deplorables-2-0-pelosi-says-30-of-republicans-homophobic-sexist-racist/

OBSERVATION - pelosi speaks the core beliefs of the modern, progressive/marxist democrat. This is driving the democrat side of the split developing in the country - demonization of political opponents and relegating them to a form of sub-human existence.

Terrorism - Moderate THREAT as of Sep 2, 2024

9/11 came and gone, and the American people are relatively neutral about the event. Our world has devolved into three minute soundbites and short term memory.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

Yesterdays rumblings on Wall St were caused by the release of inflation data.
The Labor Department reported the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% last month, in line with July. Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy components, rose 0.3% on a monthly basis, exceeding economist expectations for a 0.2% rise.

Traders changed their bets to a 85% probability for a 25 basis points cut by the Fed from 66% on Tuesday and the probability of a 50 basis point cut fell to 13% from 34% a day ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
“Maybe the market was looking for a softer inflation print which would give the Fed more reason to cut by 50 basis points next week.” said Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio manager, at Natixis. “This report was in-line to slightly hotter than expectations. As a result, this puts a bit of pressure on the Fed to cut by only 25 basis points.”

https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/financial-markets-technology-inflation/2024/09/11/id/1179981/

OBSERVATIONS - Pesky inflation continues to hang on and the markets earlier bet that recent economic data from other sectors would drive a half point drop in the prime. Now the expectations are solidifying on a quarter point drop. A lot of smoke and mirrors in economic data, especially as the election closes in.

***
Warren Buffett has been raising some eyebrows lately as he has been selling off a considerable number of BoA shares. Reportedly sold 18.7 million shares of the second-largest U.S. bank between Sept. 3 and Sept. 5 to rake in roughly $760 million. Apple shares have also been sold off as well.

There has been no comment from him or his organization on the ‘why’ of the sales, but over the past few months it appears he has been converting more to cash and away from stocks. Some think his actions reflect lack of confidence in the administration’s happy talk of a ‘soft’ landing.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th

Debates ???
NBC September 25?

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

Haitian ‘immigrant’s planted in Springfield OH (as well as other locations) proclivity to eat cats/dogs and purloin ducks/geese at local ponds hit the fan bigly over the past few days, spawning shrill denials by democrats attempting to stop the hemorrhage of the bad news about their ‘immigration’ policy. Across the board came the denials and the ‘show me’ claims.

Well, the receipts are coming in and suddenly the MSM are quieting down about it, though the typically deranged democrat ‘influencers’ continue to rant. Eye witnesses and police reports are pouring in showing how our ‘guests ‘ have been behaving. Now even higher level authorities are stepping in. Case in point the Ohio State police are being dispatched to help the locals in Springfield. Now the state AG has weighed in -

Ohio Attorney General Dave Yost announced this week that he has directed officials to begin reviewing ways to stop the Biden-Harris administration from sending large numbers of migrants to communities in the state amid backlash that is brewing over tens of thousands of Haitian illegal aliens who have been brought to a small town in the state.

His office noted that local residents have complained about the illegal aliens “causing car crashes, stealing property – including livestock, squatting in homes and killing wildlife for food.”

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/09/ohios-attorney-general-responds-to-haitian-migrants-overwhelming-town/

***
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., was forced to delay a House-wide vote on his plan to avert a partial government shutdown on Wednesday after a slew of GOP defections put the bill on life support within days of its rollout.

House leaders originally planned to hold the vote late on Wednesday afternoon, though as of earlier in the morning, at least eight Republican lawmakers signaled opposition.

Conservative opponents on Johnson’s right flank who were largely against CRs in general – believing them to be an extension of overbroad “omnibus” spending bills which they oppose – accused House GOP leaders of trying to appease them with a messaging bill that would not ultimately be signed into law.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/house-gop-plan-avert-government-shutdown-life-support-johnson-delays-vote

OBSERVATION - This may well result in a limited shutdown after there end of the FY. The CY retains the massive spending put in place originally by pelosi and schumer as budget busters.

Illegal Immigration –

U.S. law enforcement and immigration officials have launched more than 100 investigations of crimes tied to suspected members of a violent Venezuelan gang, including sex trafficking in Louisiana and the point-blank shooting of two New York City police officers, according to two Department of Homeland Security officials.

The cases involving the Tren de Aragua gang show how hard it is for U.S. border agents to vet the criminal backgrounds of migrants from countries like Venezuela that won’t give the U.S. any help.

More than 330,000 Venezuelans crossed the U.S. border last year, according to Customs and Border Protection data, and Venezuela, like Cuba, China and a handful of other countries, doesn’t provide any criminal history information to U.S. officials.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/tren-de-aragua-venezuelan-gang-members-slip-into-us-rcna156290

OBSERVATION - The amount of crime committed by illegals is growing and the amount of gang-related crime is growing even faster yet.
Remember, Trump stated that Venezuela was emptying out its prisons and sending them to the US. Well, they’re here.

North/South Korea –

North Korea fired off multiple short-range ballistic missiles early Thursday, South Korean authorities said

Russia -

Russian FM Lavrov at the meeting with Ambassadors says Russia believes The West had allowed Ukraine to strike the Russia with long-range weapons long time ago, compared western leaders with Hitler and Napoleon

Ukraine –

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

News being released that approval of deep strikes using western munitions is a done deal, only some boundary conditions remain on their use.

Russian lost an Su-30 over the Black Sea, reported shot down by Ukrainian special ops using a MANPADS missile

Ukrainian air defense shot down 44 of 64 Shahed drones, 3 more returned to Russia, 4 lost over the territory of Ukraine(crashed) and 4 more are still flying

Ukrainian forces successfully struck a Russian ammunition dump outside of Mariupol. . Multiple large fires and secondary explosions could be seen from nearby as the dump cooked off.

A Russian missile targeted a civilian ship carrying wheat for Egypt in the Black Sea today, just after it left Ukrainian waters. Fortunately, there were no reported casualties. This is the first Russian attack on a civilian vessel in over a year.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

The Russian claim of a counter offensive has been documented. Russian forces are striking the western margin of the Ukraine salient and recapturing territory. Other smaller attacks on the northern and eastern margins.
Details - The situation in the Kursk region now looks more or less like this. Russians made their way into Snagost’, gained ground near Korenevo, and reportedly occupied Vishnevka, Apanasovka, Byakhove, Vnezapnoe, Viktorovka and Gordeevka. Units believed to be built around veteran VDV forces leading the assaults.

While this was going on, AFU launched attacks near the border.

While Russia is conducting offensive actions, several Russian sources reported that Ukraine was conducting attacks in the rear of the Russian contingent that is attacking Ukrainian units near Snagost.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian forces continue to press the fight all along the front in this sector. Russian observers noting that the assault is stalling.

Outlook —

Well, we’ll see how effective the Russian counter attack to liberate Kursk will be. Ukraine OPSEC isn’t telling us much and a lot of what is being reported on the Russian side is skewed towards propaganda.

What is apparent is the attack is being pressed by about 50K Russian forces against an estimated 5K Ukraine. Ukraine tactics will have to be seen, but there appears to be evidence that Ukraine is attacking some of the Russian forces from the rear. The next few days should develop the picture better.

On the eastern front, Russia continues to press the attack, but also doesn’t appear to be making there same gains as in previous weeks. Some reports I’ve seen suggest that they are giving more emphasis on consolidating their gains, taking some punch out of the assaults.

How quickly Ukraine will be able to more freely use the long range weapons provided by the west is yet to be seen. I would guess that targeting is ongoing and we could see some sites hit as early as next week (given the bureaucratic US state department’s OK).

ISRAEL –

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Continued search and destroy operations.

IAF took out Hamas command cell at a UNRWA school that was also sheltering displaced people in the Nuseirat camp

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Lebanese Foreign Minister: We are committed to implementing Security Council Resolution 1701
NOTE - 1701 requires Hezbollah demilitarize everything south of the Litiani River.

Another 40 more rockets were launched from Lebanon at northern Israel this evening, bringing the total today to over 100. The Israeli army says that some 30 rockets were launched at the Arab al-Aramshe area, and another 10 were fired at Matat. Many of the rockets struck open areas, although some impacted Matat. There were no injuries in the attacks.
Fighter jets struck Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon’s Khraibeh, as well as a rocket launcher in Ayta ash-Shab, and buildings used by the terror group in Houla, Ayta ash-Shab and Marwahin, the Israeli army says

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli bombing targeted a car at the entrance to the village of Khan Arnabah in the Quneitra countryside, southern Syria. Two reportedly killed, likely either Hezbollah or IRGC leaders.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces continue to operate at a high tempo across most of the West Bank.

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Qatari Foreign Ministry: We strongly condemn the renewed Israeli bombing of a UNRWA school sheltering displaced people in the Nuseirat camp

***
Jordan’s main Islamist opposition party made significant gains and won 31 out of 138 seats in parliament, according to official results.
The election outcome is the best yet for the Islamic Action Front (IAF) — who were able to capitalize on people’s anger over Israel’s war against Hamas.
The IAF is the political arm of Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood.
Jordan is home to a large Palestinian population.
Although the kingdom is a strong US ally and maintains diplomatic relations with Israel, the general public is widely sympathetic to the Palestinians.

https://www.dw.com/en/jordan-islamists-win-big-in-parliamentary-elections/a-70193770?maca=en-rss-en-top-1022-rdf

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel is moving quickly to finish initial containment and compartmentalizing of Gaza and increasing preparations to engage Hezbollah on the ground. This will be a completely different style of battle than what we’ve observed in Gaza. Gaza was dense, urban fighting, whereas S Lebanon is not densely populated. S Lebanon is also more hilly, vs the coastal plane of Gaza. Hezbollah has deep tunnels in solid rock but those were built for a level and style of warfare that is not likely to happen, nor has been adjusted for Israeli tactics and weapons.

Hezbollah’s military plans also paralleled Hamas - that being a rapid, surprise invasion into Israel. Those plans are out the door now and the state of any operational planning for an Israeli attack are in question due to the massive losses of key Hezbollah leadership.

Iranian support to Hezbollah continues to be a question mark. Iran did very little to directly help Hamas, so far has done a little more to try to support Hezbollah, but Israel has been on the move to weaken that as well. Syria has faced the wrath of IAF strikes on Hezbollah/IRGC facilities.

Israel has been playing outside the box the moslems have traditionally seen them operate in, and I don’t think they are as ready as they think they are.

But make no mistake, it will be a nasty fight, especially if Iran tries to actively poke its nose into it. But IMHO Israel has the tactical advantage and holds the initiative for any operation.

Iran –

There have been rumors floating around that Iran’s delay in its revenge is due to substantial failures of its missiles in the April attack and an attempt to work out the bugs before trying again. In the weeks after israel took out Ismail Haniyeh, Iran launched a significant missile exercise (IIRC I noted it in TM). April’s attack saw over 50% (others say much higher - nearly 90%) of the missiles failed, with many crashing back into Iran or Iraq or Syria. Iran may well be trying to learn, quickly, from that debacle before repeating it with a new attack.

Iraq -

The US Embassy in Iraq confirmed that a diplomatic compound in Baghdad was attacked by rockets tonight, with no casualties. An unspecified military official told AFP that the fighters launched two Katyusha rockets targeting the facility. It is believed that an Iranian backed militia was responsible for the attack and not ISIS.

Longer than usual because there is a lot of crap happening.

Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future

C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group, a global cabal of 97 cities—representing over 700 million people—working together to impose draconian climate policies that governments wouldn’t dare pass at the national level, has issued a new report “, The Future of Urban Consumption in a 1.5°C World”. This report sets the stage for policies so extreme, they’d make the Green New Deal look reasonable.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/09/12/c40-cities-the-authoritarian-green-dream-to-destroy-your-life-and-wreck-the-economy/

OBSERVATION - I encourage you to read the link. So dystopian is the views and plans, it almost reads like a bad apocalyptic novel. But its out there. Below are US cities that have signed onto the C40 bandwagon -

Austin
Boston
Chicago
Houston
Los Angeles
Miami
New Orleans
New York City
Philadelphia
Phoenix
Portland
San Francisco
Seattle
Washington, DC

This is just another example of how the WEF/Globalists are using smaller govt entities to press forward with their agenda that it cannot press on a much larger scale.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

(FO) More than 300 agricultural industry groups warned Congress that if a new farm bill is not passed, U.S. farmers will face challenges seeking operating credit for the 2025 crop year amid a “farm economy that has taken a downward spiral.”

The ag industry groups said if a farm bill with meaningful investments in commodity programs and crop insurance is not passed, thousands of family farms would be forced to shut down.
Ag economists say the industry is on the brink of, or already in a recession

OBSERVATION - wuhan disruptions; bird flu; explosive inflation on fuel, fertilizer and equipment; ; loan rates and massive drought have all combined over the past few years to hammer the agriculture industry. Govt regulatory and other programs have done little to take the additional burdens off their backs. Decline in agriculture production will lead to marked increases at the grocery stores.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The USS Theodore Roosevelt aircraft carrier is reportedly heading back to US shores and its home of Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia after an extended Mideast tour. This brings to an end a rare Pentagon decision to have two US carrier’s patrolling Middle East region waters, in the wake of soaring tensions between Israel and Iran following the Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran this summer.

There are still smaller US warships currently in the Eastern Mediterranean, at a moment Israel and Iran-linked Hezbollah continue daily exchanges of fire. Additionally, the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier remains in the Gulf of Oman.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/one-of-two-us-aircraft-carriers-in-the-middle-east-heads-home/

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

***
Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee on Thursday dropped two criminal counts against President Trump in Fani Willis’s lawfare RICO case.
In August 2023, corrupt Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis indicted President Trump and 18 co-defendants for daring to challenge the 2020 election.

Judge McAfee said two of the counts related to conspiracy and filing false documents are outside of Fani Willis’s jurisdiction since she is a local District Attorney and not a federal prosecutor.
A total of five of the 13 charges of the original indictment have now been dropped against President Trump. Judge McAfee dropped three of the charges earlier this year.

thegatewaypundit.com

OBSERVATION - The corruption charges Willis is facing is still working its way through the process. The case against trump is falling apart.

***
Fallout continues to hammer ABC news and the reprobate ‘moderators’ handling of the trump ambush.

Now more is coming out. Reportedly today an ABC whistleblower is suppose to release evidence that harris was given notice of the questions to be asked and notice that she would not be fact checked. If true, this is a serious breach of journalistic ethics and a death blow to what little reputation ABC news has. For Muir and Davis, it should be career terminating, just like what happened to Donna Brazile, a CNN contributor at the time, when she sent the Clinton camp advanced copies of the debate questions.

Next, ABC News failed to disclose that Kamala Harris and ABC News anchor Linsey Davis, who co-moderated Tuesday night’s debate between Harris and President Trump, are sorority sisters in the influential Alpha Kappa Alpha Sorority, Inc. AKA formed a PAC in August after Harris became the Democrats’ presidential nominee.

The sorority connection is one more possible clue as to why the debate moderated by Davis and ABC World News Tonight anchor David Muir was so one-sided in favor of Harris. Muir and Davis interrupted Trump numerous times to fact check and argue with him while they did not fact check Harris even one time.

Numerous ABC “fact checks” on trump have been fact checked and ABC (and harris) have been found to be the ones lying.

RELATED - Mark Penn, a pollster and senior adviser for the Clintons from 1995-2008 and co-chair of the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, told the “John Solomon Reports” podcast Thursday that “suspicion is really quite high” that ABC colluded with the harris campaign and a review of internal texts and emails should be done by an independent party to find out whether there was an effort to rig the debate’s outcome.

https://www.newsmax.com/politics/mark-penn-abc-donald-trump/2024/09/12/id/1180149/

***
harris is now all about debating, wanting another shot at Trump. Trump has said that’s all, no mulligans for harris. This in the face of growing evidence that the debate has helped Trump more than harris - especially among independents.

***
Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose warned election boards to be extra vigilant in the weeks before the November election after an investigation uncovered illegal voter registration forms circulating in Clark County.

In a media advisory, the secretary of state’s office noted, “The office’s Election Integrity Unit recently concluded an investigation into the origins of an illegal voter registration form translated into the Haitian Creole language. The Clark County Board of Elections reported this form to our office after rejecting its submission by a local applicant.”

In a memo to election officials, Hun Yi, director of investigations for the Secretary of State’s Public Integrity Division, said, “The Board confirmed they’ve only received one of these unauthorized forms, but they rightly recognized it as illegal and worked with my team to track down its source with the help of a county government assistance office.”

LaRose’s press release noted an ongoing investigation into “evidence of a pattern of fraudulent voter registration activity in multiple counties under the paid employment of a group called Black Fork Strategies.”

Black Fork’s website boasts that its goal is “building long-term progressive power” through canvassing and voter registration, among other things.

Last month, LaRose’s office referred a number of election fraud cases involving Black Fork for prosecution.

https://pjmedia.com/paula-bolyard/2024/09/12/breaking-ohio-sos-uncovers-fake-haitian-voter-registrations-springfield-n4932487#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - The Haitians eating cats issue is blowing up in the face of democrats as increased attention is now being given to the claims and is resulting in other abuses being detected. The receipts for the assault on pets and wildlife are increasingly documented, now back door illegal voter registration efforts are coming to light.

Also coming under the spot light are these non-profit NGO entities who are supposed to be assisting these Haitians to integrate into our society and culture doing absolutely nothing except raking in millions of federal dollars.

It has also brought to light the abuses the regime has inflicted on the country in its rush to flood the country with illegals of all flavors.

Biden / Harris Watch –

biden made news putting on a Trump hat at a post 9/11 gathering at a fire station.

Illegal Immigration –

See “POLITICAL FRONT” above for Haitians being illegally registered to vote.

China –

News buried by all the other stuff, is relating back to the ongoing property and associated economic crisis still rocking China.

Russia -

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Putin said that the use of Western long-range precision weapons against Russia by Ukraine would signal direct NATO involvement in the war in Ukraine. He added that Ukraine uses data and intelligence from NATO countries to coordinate strikes because they don’t have such data themselves.

OBSERVATIONs - See Ukraine below

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range, fair but with scattered light rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 24 of 26 Shahed drones overnight.

A large Russian ammunition depot has reportedly detonated in Mariupol

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Fighting there is smothered by the fog of war.

Russian claims the liberation of about a dozen towns on the western margin of the Kursk salient.

Ukrainian forces continued counterattacking in areas where Russian forces have launched counterattacks and launched additional attacks outside of the salient, making gains in Glushkovsky Raion (west of Korenevsky Raion).

Russian authorities have reportedly deployed additional elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division to Kursk Oblast and may begin redeploying more combat-experienced forces to support ongoing Russian counterattacks and future counteroffensive operations against Ukrainian forces in Russia.

ISW observed reports that elements of the 137th VDV Regiment were operating in the Siversk direction as of late August 2024. Elements of the 106th VDV Division’s 51st VDV Regiment are also reportedly operating in Kursk Oblast.

Russian authorities have largely relied on poorly trained and equipped conscripts and small elements of Russian regular and irregular forces to address the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast thus far and will likely require additional manpower and more combat-experienced units to fully push Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast.

Meanwhile, the new Ukraine penetration near Snagost, Olgovka, Fanaseevka, Medvezhye and Novyi Put’ of Kursk region continues to develop and grow. If developed, this could push into the rear areas of Russian forces attacking the western margin of the Kursk salient.

Outlook —

Will Russia go big if Ukraine hits deep into it with western weapons? Or is this just another red line that has no teeth? putin has few options at this stage.

1 Do nothing but bluster
2 Use tactical nukes against Ukraine
3 Launch conventional or nuclear attacks on NATO proper territories
4 Declare full war and begin full mobilization.

while he has consistently done #1 since 2022, 3 and 4 pose substantial threats to Russia as the war would escalate into something far more serious. However, putin’s formulations may be taking into account the mushy status of the US, with a brain addled president and a county focused on the Nov elections. Such a brazen attack could well freeze up US responses and throw NATO into a leaderless mess.

Russia has gotten serious in Kursh with the deployment of VDV forces. However, their use deprives Russia the elements needed to make any significant gains on the Pokrovsk axis. The tactical situation as I’ve been able to read is one of mobile warfare, not the set in place defensive operations of the past. Ukraine has the definite advantage in mobile operations both equipment and leadership wise. Russia’s forces have been attacking in a set piece manner via meat attacks, so a mobile force that can out maneuver these attacks has the advantage. Russia’s counteroffensive has also weakened other areas of the border, areas that it appears that Ukraine is in the process of exploiting. Bottom line is this will be an interesting fight as the terms and conditions have changed.

Europe / NATO General –

EU: We will respond quickly and in coordination with international partners to the issue of sending Iranian missiles to Russia

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Sunday’s attack by Israel on Masyaf, Syria was far more complex than originally reported.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

Senior IDF officials are reportedly considering accepting the plan to turn Northern Gaza into a closed military zone.

This plan is called the ‘Island Plan,’ and the IDF is considering adopting it, or at least parts of it. Recently, some high-ranking commanders have already expressed support for the move.

According to the plan, the IDF will evacuate more than 200,000 Gazans in Northern Gaza and turn the entire area north of the Netzarim Corridor into a territory under complete Israeli military control.
(Amit Tsarfati)

***
Hamas has profited by at least a half billion dollars from humanitarian aid entering the Gaza Strip, Channel 12 reported on Tuesday.

Hamas steals the humanitarian aid and sells it to the population. It then uses the money to finance recruitment, Boker said, noting that 3,000 terrorists have been added to Hamas’s payroll in northern Gaza.

https://www.israeltoday.co.il/read/hamas-makes-half-billion-from-humanitarian-aid-pays-its-terrorists/

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Continued search and destroy operations.

***
The Hamas Rafah Brigade has been decimated, at least 2,308 of its operatives have been killed by the Israel Defense Forces, and over 13 kilometers worth of tunnels have been destroyed, military officials tell reporters in the Gaza Strip’s southernmost city.”The Rafah Brigade has been defeated,” Brig. Gen. Itzik Cohen, the general in charge of the offensive in the city, tells reporters from the Philadelphi Corridor.
***
The now-deceased Hamas Khan Yunis Brigade Commander Rafah Salame wrote a letter in May, addressed to Gaza Chief Yahya Sinwar where he pleaded for help and described how his forces were significantly damaged, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant revealed on Wednesday.

Salame wrote to Sinwar, and his brother Muhammad Sinwar, that 90-95% of his rockets were gone.

Further, he said that 65-70% of his anti-tank missiles were gone.

In addition, he stated that at least 50% of his forces were killed and that only 25% remained to fight, with another 25% wounded or fleeing.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-819741

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah asked the residents of southern Lebanon to evacuate the villages in the area following the “increase in the threat level” and as part of preparations for expected Israeli security activity - this was reported this morning in the “Al-Nahar” newspaper

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

The air strikes Sunday on Syria covered a far more significant and successful operation conducted by Israel, the raiding and destruction of a key Hezbollah/IRGC missile production facility.

According to U.S. and Israeli Officials, Sunday night’s airstrikes against the City of Masyaf in Western Syria was “cover” for a raid by elements of the “Sayeret Matkal” General Staff Reconnaissance Unit of the Israeli Military Intelligence Directorate, who flew by helicopter over 125 miles into Syrian territory in order to destroy a major underground missile production site located at the Scientific Studies and Research Center near Masyaf. During the raid, several Syrian guards were killed before Special Forces Soldiers set explosives across the deep-underground facility, resulting in its total destruction. IAF conducted CAP operations, interdicting reinforcements from getting to the facility during the incursion. In addition to the destruction of the facility, considerable materials of intelligence use were also collected.

***
The Israeli army says it carried out two drone strikes in southern Syria overnight, targeting a Hezbollah operative and another Iran-linked terrorist. The military says the first strike, in the Quneitra area killed Ahmed al-Jaber, a member of Hezbollah’s so-called Golan File unit. Another strike, in the al-Rafid area, targeted a “terrorist who advanced terror acts against the State of Israel, and acted with the cooperation and direction of Iran.” the IDF says.

——— FORECAST ————————-

The decimation of Hamas as a fighting force has been made evident by recent information. Remnants still pose a threat to take over politically should Israeli presence by suddenly withdrawn. This is a big milestone and one necessary for operations to shift towards Hezbollah.

The reported partition plan would deny Hamas rocket launching positions that can reach a large number of densely populated Israeli cities. Increased presence in the southern half of Gaza, along with much stricter controls of imports into Gaza, will make it harder to supply Hamas with the materials and smuggled weapons it would need to rebuild.

The intel collected by the Masyaf raid should have Hezbollah sweating bombs. There would likely be references to where these missiles were to be delivered to - exposing ammo dumps to future Israeli airstrikes. Probably lots of other juicy, actionable info as well.

Hezbollah is recognizing the growing storm about to hit and is calling on civilians to evacuate from the border region. With the reported return of the USS Theodore Roosevelt back to home port, Iranian deterrent is decreased, so Israel needs to act sooner rather than later. Oct 7 is the one year anniversary of the Hamas terror attack that kicked this all off - could be karma if Israel launches its ground campaign on that same date - It would be at about the right time frame as I guesstimate.

Misc of Note –

All the fallout from the debate is blowing back into the faces of democrats
- Closer scrutiny of the illegal policies and imports of Haitians.
- Closer scrutiny of MSM involvement in skewing the message.

This last one is probably the biggest. One of the big statement from trump is how the MSM is totally stacked against him and will do anything to see him lose. Of course those on the left poo-poo’d such claims as delusions and conspiracy, that is until the debate hit. With even reliable democrat pundits raising red flags, the debate affirmed trump’s claims.

And I think this was not lost on the minds of independent voters - especially those who pay attention to the developments. Still, deep in the core of many Americans is the concept of fairness and even on the very surface this debate was skewed to the unfair side. The extent that these follow-on scandals reach the surface of the news cycle is questionable, but then there is the alternative news that has been the bane of the MSM (hence the massive effort to censor the internet) where it will be front and center.

From my preparedness perch, this drama contributes to the assessment that the democrats driving the harris campaign may grow increasingly desperate. Outside of that are the other marxist forces that could trigger many other chaotic events in the days leading up to the election - and beyond.

Frankly, at this stage, no matter who wins a massive &&^%$ show is about to hit the nation. And the time to make preparations is rapidly coming to a close. The political soap opera is but a harbinger of much deeper threats to the country.

Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future

The Hague will ban street advertising for fossil fuels, according to a notice published on the Dutch city’s website, as a number of cities worldwide crack down on publicity for fossil fuels and high-emissions sectors.

“The city council of The Hague adopted two proposals to ban fossil advertising in outdoor spaces,” council spokesman Jordy Kruse told the AFP news agency on Friday.

The first proposal informs advertising agencies that fossil fuel advertising is not permitted while the second bans all fossil fuel advertising in public spaces, Kruse said.

“We hope that this law will also give a signal to other cities to do the same to fight climate change,” Leonie Gerritsen, a Hague council member for the Party for Animals, one of the main drivers of the legislation, told AFP.

In June, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged every country to enact bans on ads for fossil fuel companies, which he called “the godfathers of climate chaos”.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/9/13/the-hague-to-ban-fossil-fuel-ads-from-january?traffic_source=rss

OBSERVATION - Incrementalism, on a global scale.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
— Downgrade due to lack of physical activity, but high due to rhetoric.

***
Newly released crime statistics show violent crimes, including aggravated assaults, robberies, and rapes, have increased under the Biden-Harris government. During the recent debate between Donald J. Trump and Kamala Harris, the former president said crime is “through the roof” since he left office, driven in part by migrant crime. ABC News moderator David Muir interjected to claim, “The FBI says overall violent crime is coming down,” but the new figures—released by the Biden-Harris Justice Department—vindicate the America First leader.In 2020, Trump’s last full year in office, 1,569,390 violent crimes, excluding simple assaults, were recorded. The figure had risen to 2,485,830 by 2023. (Simple assaults are also up, from 2,988,770 to 3,933,230.)

Rapes and sexual assaults, in particular, are up from 319,950 in 2020 to 481,020 in 2023. Robberies are up from 437,260 to 731,620, and so-called “stranger violence” is up from 1,973,200 to an astonishing 3,233,400.

https://thenationalpulse.com/2024/09/13/trump-vindicated-new-doj-stats-show-spike-in-assaults-rapes-and-robberies-under-biden-harris/

OBSERVATION - We knew this all along and I’m surprised that the DoJ of all would suddenly release this updated information.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has said he would not rule out an outcome for the US economy which is widely considered to be worse than a recession.
The chief executive of the biggest bank in the US said this week ‘the worst income is stagflation,’ which he would not ‘take off the table.’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/consumer/article-13847325/jamie-dimon-warns-economy-outcome-stagflation-worse-recession.html

OBSERVATION - Many economists are not convinced that the economy is headed for sunshine and lollypops.

***
Stock and metals markets are getting excited about a potential half point drop in the fed rate. Be careful what you wish for as such a drop has indications that the Fed realizes things are not coming in softly and are looking at braking hard. Next week’s fed meeting will tell all.

***
The soaring U.S. national debt has led to interest payments surpassing $1 trillion for the first time in history.
NOTE - Americans generally don’t feel this directly, but the burden coming from govt activities are holding down the economy in general. When the piper comes, it will be really ugly - and this growth is deliberate, setting the US up for the ‘great reset’.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

***
Pennsylvania Supreme Court has ruled that undated and misdated mail-in ballots cannot be counted. This is a huge win for Trump and vote integrity.

***
Fallout continues from the ABC debate debacle -
Penn and Stein from the WSJ say it pretty clear, echoing what I said in an earlier post

“When referees put their thumbs on the scale, the game changes. The results have to be thrown out, we are robbed of our time, and democracy is drained of its meaning. A presidential debate shouldn’t be a staged wrestling match. It should feature two candidates on a level playing field so voters can make up their minds free of interference. Anything less makes a mockery of our institutions. ABC should have fact-checked both candidates or neither. Fact-checking only one was the worst possible decision. Even a Democrat can tell a whopper.”

“Time and again we find that supposedly neutral democratic institutions have been corrupted by bias. Debate moderators must check their biases and seek to be scrupulously fair, or they shouldn’t do the job. They should observe strict rules and come from a variety of networks. Most important, they shouldn’t interfere but rather trust voters to make their own decisions. ABC undermined the system for everyone.”

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/abcs-bias-deprived-voters-of-a-fair-debate-2024-presidential-election-trump-harris-01410617

***

Linsey Davis, one of the moderators of ABC’s three-against-one Donald Trump-Kamala Harris debate Tuesday evening, has come out as being proud of her interference in the debate.

Biden / Harris Watch –

On Friday, the vice president sat down with a local ABC News affiliate in Philadelphia to answer questions for a whole 10 minutes. It went down hill fast.

Reporter: What are your specific plans to bring down prices?
Kamala: “I grew up a middle class kid... I grew up in a neighborhood of folks who were very proud of their lawn. Ya know?”

Harris: “My focus is very much about what we need to do over the next 10-20 years to catch up to the 21st century around, again, capacity, but also challenges.”

OBSERVATION - Just a couple of the word salads spewed by harris in the interview. The interviewer is known to be a ‘fixer’, one capable of setting the parameters of an interview to improve the public status of a candidate. The look on his face during that 10 minutes tell all - it was a train wreck.

***
Biden deliberately carried a bright red hat thought by some to be a maga hat as he entered af1 today. Some think he is sending a message to someone.

Illegal Immigration –

A resident of Springfield, OH, has told a city commission meeting that locals are being displaced from their homes to make way for Haitian migrants.

The man, who has not been named, said the federal government was paying “triple the rent” for Haitians arriving in the town, thus incentivizing landlords to prioritize immigrants over existing residents.

Addressing the city commission, the resident – who said he’d worked with the homeless community for more than 25 years – said he didn’t know of “a single homeless Haitian in this town because they all got vouchers” from the federal government.

OBSERVATION - The massive cat campaign has caused the MSM to unwillingly uncover a much more sinister side to the mayhem the influx of 20K haitians into a small town of 60K has caused. Creating homeless CITIZENS, substantial mayhem on the streets from haitian drivers, increased crime, increased trashing of neighborhoods, etc. And the MSM is suddenly discovering this is happening in towns all across America. Americans see this, knowing it to be happening and are rejecting democrat gaslighting excuses.

Russia -

NUCLEAR THREATS –

The Russian Security Council today discussed options for Russia’s response to the use of Western long-range precision weapons against it, a source told EZh. The discussion did not concern the use of nuclear weapons; it discussed measures to contain Western countries. This included both active containment measures and political and propaganda actions.

Russian leadership has issued a follow-up statement to President Vladimir Putin’s Thursday brief video address warning that if the US and UK authorize Ukraine to pursue long-range strikes on Russian soil, then NATO and the Russian Federation will be in an official state of war.
On Friday Russia’s ambassador to the United Nations, Vassily Nebenzia, informed the UN Security council that NATO countries would “start an open war” in allowing Western long-range missiles to target Russia.
“If such a decision is made, that means NATO countries are starting an open war against Russia,” Moscow’s envoy introduced. “In that case, we will obviously be forced to make certain decisions, with all the attendant consequences for Western aggressors.”

Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun publicly announced today that “China will militarily support Russia if NATO attacks Russia.”

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range, fair but with scattered light rain.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Another huge Shahed drone attack overnight. Out of 76 launched, 72 were shot down by air defense. One drone strayed into Belarus.
Use of Shahed-type drones is about to cross 1000 during last 30 days. Russia has used, at least 5429 Shahed-type drones since the 13th September of 2023(last year).

Turkish ship carrying 26,550 tons of grain to Egypt from Ukraine was attacked by Russia with a Kh-22 cruise missile launched by a Tu-22M supersonic bomber in Romanian Exclusive Economic Zone in the Black Sea.

It appears that the US and Britain are backing away from allowing Ukraine to use its long range weapons to attack Russia proper, apparently fearing Russian responses.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Russian forces appear to have stalled in their counter offensive. An assessment by ISW indicates many reasons

(ISW). The Russian military continues to counterattack throughout the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast but will likely have to redeploy additional elements from elsewhere in the theater to Kursk to establish a force grouping capable of a sustained counteroffensive operation.

Russian authorities have largely relied on poorly-trained and equipped conscripts and small elements of Russian regular and irregular forces to address the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast thus far... and it is unlikely that most of the current Russian force grouping in Kursk is comprised of combat-experienced units.

A Russian counteroffensive operation to retake territory seized by Ukrainian forces in Kursk will very likely require even more manpower and materiel... than Russia has already concentrated in the area — especially if most of the already committed units lack combat experience.

The Russian military will most certainly have to redeploy units already committed to ongoing offensive operations... or operational reserves from Ukraine to Kursk Oblast to field the combat-effective units needed for a large counteroffensive operation and then subsequently guard the international border against future Ukrainian incursions.

Meanwhile, Ukraine forces have penetrated the border in two locations now further to the west of the Kursk salient. One of the biggest has forces moving deeper into Glushkovskyi district in Kursk following the border breaktrough near Novyi Put’. Note, this breakthrough, if it becomes sizable enough, will threaten the rear areas of the Russian counter attack.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russian forces are pushing southward and have managed to capture Dolynivka village and Zhelanne Pershe village

Russian Territory –

Russia has repeatedly deployed 4 missile carriers with missile capacity of 24 Kaliber missiles into the Black Sea.

Outlook —

Looks like the west has blinked over Moscow’s latest threats. This mean Ukraine will have to continue to develop and build long range weapons on its own.

Looks like Russia’s response to the Kursk incursion will be to pull even more combat efficient units from other parts of the front. This means current offensive actions - particularly the Pokrovsk effort - will find it harder to sustain operations and may find themselves open to localized counterattacks.

I think an example of this is the new border crossing assaults by Ukraine. It should be noted that Russian forces in this area have had their logistics severely interrupted by the loss of bridges (regular and pontoon). Add to it any forces syphoned off for the Kursk operation. Now instead of looking east, Russia has to face a growing threat from the west.

The volume of Shahed’s used by Russia is impressive. Iranian and Russia production must be exceeding 30 /day just to keep up with the use. They are cheap to build and useful in overwhelming ADA assets, weakening their supplies of ammo, and allowing cruise and other missiles to penetrate, causing greater damage.

Future developments continue to be the pressed offensive in Pokrovsk and the fight in the Kursk sector.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Though not openly announced, it appear that the decision to go forward with an attack into S Lebanon to remove Hezbollah has been made.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

US official: Israel has made the decision to start a wide war against Hezbollah

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Continued search and destroy operations.

Hamas managed to fire two rockets towards Ashkelon, one launch was intercepted and the other fell in the maritime space, there were no casualties

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli army: About 35 rockets were fired from Lebanon towards the Galilee. We intercepted a number of them and most of them fell in open areas.

Israeli army: We targeted a weapons depot, a missile platform and military buildings in Majdal Zun, Jabin and Blida in southern Lebanon

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Military reinforcements and crowds of the Assad regime, supported by Iranian militias, are heading to the western Damascus countryside, where Russian-led military maneuvers are being held in the area. Information indicates that these crowds and maneuvers aim to repel the Israeli army in the event that it begins to penetrate southwestern Syria.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Clearly, the Israeli emphasis has switched to face Hezbollah. The call by Hezbollah for civilians to evacuate indicates that by their view, things are going to happen soon.

The assembly of a hodge podge of Iranian backed forces in Syria suggests that they may attempt to attack Israel’s flank and not just ‘defend’ Syria. Blending in with a ‘Russian’ exercise grants them some protection from IAF strikes, but that won’t last should the shooting start.

Only thing left is timing, and Israel is in command of that aspect.

Iran –

Iran has increased its activities at two nuclear sites that were key to its early nuclear weapons program two decades ago, according to a report by the Institute for Science and International Security

Globalism / Great Reset –
Sept 22- 23: UN Summit of the Future

Australia’s citizenry, one step further on the road to complete capture, is now subject to a codified new “misinformation” moratorium on social media.

Australia’s Communications Legislation Amendment (Combatting Misinformation and Disinformation) Bill 2024 continues to ignite heated debate, with critics arguing that the bill risks stifling free speech.

The proposed bill, which targets misinformation related to elections, public health, and critical infrastructure, requires tech companies to establish codes of conduct.

Platforms failing to self-regulate will face standards imposed by the Australian Communications and Media Authority (ACMA), which would oversee enforcement. This could include fines of up to 5% of total global revenue for platforms that fail to comply with the new rules.

However, free speech advocates warn that this could have a chilling effect on legitimate public discourse and potentially limit people’s ability to criticize public institutions.

https://pjmedia.com/benbartee/2024/09/14/australia-codifies-misinformation-ban-in-anti-free-speech-law-n4932517

OBSERVATION - Censorship and the associated controls of free thought are not just a 1984 meme, but growing reality across the world today. Censorship is a fundamental tool of tyranny. Australia is in the process of making it law. Here in the US the process towards that same goal is ongoing, but from the wuhan plandemic on, national efforts to bully social media into censorship have been ongoing. Only a matter of time until similar laws are proposed here.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

***
CNN admits the Harris campaign’s X account (@KamalaHQ) has repeatedly deceived users by misleadingly clipping and inaccurately captioning video clips to attack former President Trump

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/14/politics/fact-check-harris-campaign-social-media/index.html

OBSERVATION - Odd that the generally reliable leftist CNN has suddenly turned on Harris. Their fact checks are through and suck the wind out of harris claims.

***
This year’s political scrum has been full of a lot of twists and turns. The revolt by CNN against the harris campaign and the broader media response against ABC are just the latest shocks. Harris and walz are being forced outside the bubbly of ‘joy” and facing real questions over policies and it is beginning to clearly hurt them the polls.

Flip flops by harris and her cringeworthy word salads in particular are starting to gain traction. Keep in mind the polling axioms above, a great deal of disinformation is coming out via these polls.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Harris pulls another hillary and unveils a new accent at the Black Caucus Dinner

Illegal Immigration –

The cat revolt in Springfield OH has revealed more than cultural issues
- Citizens kicked out of rentals by landlords who are getting substantially more to rent to Haitians
- Illegal voter registration effort
- Job losses to Haitians who are getting paid pennies on the dollar while receiving outrageous sums of $$ via govt programs.
- Chaos on the streets as accidents have dramatically increased due to Haitian drivers.
- Increases in TB and other diseases
- Overload of the city services and schools.
- And yes, threats to pets and wildlife in parks, as documented in police reports.

***
A new study of states that received Haitians delivered by the biden regime shows that red states received as much as 5 to 6 times the number that blue states received. This doesn’t include other groups!

https://therightscoop.com/new-chart-shows-where-joe-and-kamala-flew-haitian-illegals-in-the-country-and-you-wont-be-shocked/

OBSERVATION - Clearly an effort to skew eventually voting patterns and turn those states blue.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range, fair but with scattered light rain.
NOTE - Remnants of Storm Boris will potentially impact portions of Ukraine over the next several days. Forecast is likely for the southern half of the nation to feel excessive rains.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukraine shot down overnight:
0/2 Iskander-M ballistic missiles
1/1 Kh-59/69 cruise missile
10/14 Shahed drones

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Situation is relative stable across the salient.

According to Ukrainian military sources, the Ukrainian army has advanced +4km deep into Russian territory in the Glushkovo direction.
“Defeated a motorised rifle brigade and unexpectedly approached enemy mortars.”
NOTE - This new invasion is pushing into a region Ukraine has been depriving of resupply and access via campaign to take out bridges. Units may also have been thinned out to support the Russian counteroffensive in Kursk.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russia pressing more attacks across the whole Donbas front.

Outlook —

The Kursk invasion is starting to fully impact other sectors of the Russian front. Growing assessment that the force mix of the 50K or so Russia has diverted to Kursk is insufficient to drive Ukraine out and larger, more experienced/equipped forces are needed. Russia is doggedly pursuing the Donbas operation with declining resources and facing the operations stalling out in many areas.

Ukraine for its part has been executing what appears to be an economy of force defensive operation in the Donbas to free up resources for use in Kursk. By necessity, this requires Ukraine to gradually give up ground after extracting as much blood as possible from Russia before setting up along a new line of defense.

Will they or won’t they - the US and Britain are flopping back and forth on the allowance of Ukraine to use supplied munitions to strike deep into Russia proper. So far it seems that Russian saber rattling has created enough push back that the west is reassessing the terms of usage for these weapons. Ukraine has reportedly submitted a list of targets for approval and I suspect that limited approval will be forthcoming.

Europe / NATO General –

Chairman of NATO Military Committee: Ukraine has the right to strike deep into Russian territory in order to weaken the enemy, its logistics and supplies on the fuel and ammunition front

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Houthi missile penetrates into central Israel, striking open field.

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Continued search and destroy operations. Artillery and air strikes across the whole overnight.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli army: 40 rockets were fired from southern Lebanon towards Kiryat Shmona, some of which fell in open areas.

Israel launched numerous air and artillery strikes throughout Lebanon. Some very heavy strikes were reported in the northern Bekka valley region.

The IDF dropped evacuation order leaflets to a town in southern Lebanon, for the first time since the outbreak of war

Residents of southern Lebanon are fleeing their villages in anticipation for a war with Israel

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Israeli raids inside Syrian territory in Al-Qusayr, in addition to raids on the Lebanese-Syrian border, in the Hawsh Al-Sayyid Ali area.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Aggressive Israeli security forces operations continue.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Israeli army: At 06:21 this morning (Sunday), a surface-to-surface missile was fired from Yemen toward Israeli territory. An initial inquiry indicates the missile most likely fragmented in mid-air. During the incident, several interception attempts were made by the Arrow and Iron Dome Aerial Defense Systems, and their results are under review. Sirens were sounded in accordance with protocol. The entire incident is under review. Fallen fragments of the interceptors were identified in open areas and at the Paatei Modi’in Railway Station. A fire erupted in an area adjacent to Kafr Daniel

NOTE - Fragmentation of the missile was a common feature of Iraqi missiles during Desert Shield/Storm. Indicates it didn’t survive reentry. Israeli questions concerning effectiveness of detection and why it wasn’t seen earlier. The Arrow system has had a near 100% success rate - including the first ever combat exoatmospheric intercept. However, against a fragmented and probable tumbling warhead, target acquisition and intercept challenges become very high. Reports that Iron Dome was used to try to engage/breakup large pieces of the rocket. Rocket impacted in the Ben Shemen forest area in central Israel.

Military spokesman for the Houthis group: The enemy should expect additional qualitative operations. Claim the missile used overnight had a hypersonic warhead.

***
US Central Command (CENTCOM) destroyed three Houthi drones and one Houthi “support vehicle” in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen on September 13.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Movement toward eventual ground operations in S Lebanon took an upgrade with the calls for evacuation of civilians along the border zones. Reports suggest that Israel is increasingly targeting Hezbollah ammo depots over the past few days in an effort that would degrade their capability to resupply troops and rocket launchers. It will be difficult to say just when Israel will start, indicators that I see are pretty well being kept under wraps. The call for civilian evacuation definitely points to events starting soon. Could be as soon as a couple of weeks.

Houthi shooting for a lucky hit almost got one overnight. However, their missile broke up on reentry and failed to effectively reach its target, some believe to be Ben Gurion airport. Last time Houthi got a lucky shot in, Israel destroyed most of the Houthi’s key port facilities. Some think that with the IAF busy preparing the Lebanon battlefield, Israel may respond this time with their own ballistic missiles. I’m not sure as to how effective their intelligence game is with the Houthi in comparison to Hezbollah, but I think Israel may have a valid target set for a retaliatory strike. Unlike Israel, Houthi have no antimissile defense systems.

Iran –

The US and UK are concerned that Russia is sharing nuclear secrets with Iran, as well as classified information which may aid Iran in achieving its nuclear goals, Bloomberg and the Guardian reported.

According to the report, the information is provided in exchange for Tehran’s provision of ballistic missiles to Moscow, to be used in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/396188

OBSERVATION - Contribution to Iran’s nuclear program was likely one of the golden rings Iran was reaching for when they started up the war support to Russia. Such help, like detonation device plans, would allow Iran to jump its nuclear bomb program by large bounds.

***
Iran launched a military satellite using the IRGC’s Qaem-100 SLV. This is the third successful launch (the first was a suborbital test).

OBSERVATION - Remember, these launches are dual purpose - much like the launches by the US in the 50s and 60s were - tests for potential military launch vehicles capable of carrying a nuclear payload. Military application of this kind of rocket point to a regional or global desired capability to deliver nuclear munitions.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate THREAT - up dated Sep 12, 2024
— Downgrade due to lack of physical activity, but high due to rhetoric.

***
NEW YORK TIMES: “It is becoming increasingly likely that there will be no clear and immediate winner on election night and that early returns could give a false impression of who will ultimately prevail.”
“If a winner is not declared on election night, it will not necessarily point to failures in the process. More likely, it will be a result of the intense security measures required for counting mail-in ballots.”

OBSERVATION - They are telegraphing the effort to cheat on the vote and are attempting to prepare the people psychologically for the action. A repeat of 2020 will likely trigger violence from the right.

***
Another assassination attempt on Trump. FR threads pretty well cover it, however I’ve got a few points.

- The left almost immediately denounced it as fake or staged
- The left continued to state that trump deserved it

The perp - Ryan Routh is a known and very public individual, having been interviewed by MSM in regards to his open support and recruiting efforts for Ukraine. Also an outspoken supporter of Hamas. A democrat donor.

He was arrested in 2002 after barricading himself in a business and charged with carrying a concealed weapon and possession of a weapon of mass destruction, referring to a fully automatic machine gun. He was also charged with resisting, delaying and obstructing a law enforcement officer and driving while license revoked.

The New York Times interviewed him in 2023 about his plans to recruit Afghan soldiers and illegally transport them to fight in Ukraine.

He was also interviewed in 2022 in Kyiv by Newsweek Romania about his efforts to recruit international volunteers and mercenaries for Ukraine.

IMHO the SS did their job orders of magnitude better than the previous attempt, quickly discovering Routh several hundred yards away from trump and engaging him immediately upon seeing the weapon (a probable SKS sporter model, with a scope) . It is unclear if he actually fired his weapon during the incident.

Motivation? He was definitely an anti-Trumper and some believe that his association with the efforts to form a mercenary force for Ukraine link him to the CIA.

His targeting of Trump has raised issues of being ‘helped’ from the inside. Primary is that Trumps golf set was not listed on the public events for the day. Some may say that if Routh surveillanced trump, he would have known that he commonly played golf on a Sunday afternoon. Knowledge of the timing of that round is critical, since he set up ahead of the action and ready for trump to come to him.

This is the second attempt - and I’ll bet there will be more, inspired by the left. Resorting to violence is not an unknown tactic by communists globally, but here it has cranked the gage into the red zone. Two attempts in 60 days is unprecedented.

Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024

A federal judge temporarily halted the enforcement of a Biden-Harris administration rule in five states on Thursday designed to reduce methane emissions and minimize natural gas waste on federal lands.
U.S. District Court Judge Daniel Traynor issued a preliminary injunction that temporarily blocks the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) from enforcing a new rule that was implemented in April in North Dakota, Montana, Texas, Wyoming and Utah, according to The Hill. These states argued that the federal rule, which mandates oil and gas companies to implement waste reduction plans and leak detection programs on public lands, constitutes an overreach of federal authority, infringing upon state rights.

BLM, under the Department of the Interior, argued that venting and flaring natural gas squanders public and Native American resources, cutting significant royalty revenues for taxpayers, tribes, and states, while exacerbating climate change, the North Dakota Monitor stated. However, Judge Traynor contends that the BLM lacks the authority for air quality control, a power reserved for the Environmental Protection Agency and the states by the Clean Air Act.

https://wattsupwiththat.com/2024/09/15/court-blocks-biden-harris-methane-emissions-rule-in-five-states/

OBSERVATIONS - Also related to Globalism / Great Reset items. Govt effort to kill the fossil fuel industry based on fake science. The economic impact of this regulation would cause energy prices to skyrocket to the point where extraction would cease to be feasible or cost effective.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

The Navy is slated to commission its very first Virginia-class submarine designed for a fully gender-integrated crew on Saturday.

A submarine designed and built for both genders has been a long time coming. The New Jersey is entering the fleet roughly 14 years after then-Defense Secretary Robert Gates ended the ban on women serving on subs in 2010.

Adm. William Houston, then-commander of Naval Submarine Forces, said last year that he signed a “major revision” to the Navy’s plan to integrate women into the submarine fleet. The new guidance calls for women officers to serve on 40 submarines – up from the original 30.

https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2024/09/12/navy-to-commission-first-sub-designed-for-both-men-and-women-sailors/

OBSERVATION - Integration of women into the combat arms realms traditionally held by men has been fraught with destructive wokeness and feminist dogma. Now, close quarters inside a sub for long periods is a recipe for trouble.

POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - Nov 25th
Debates ???

Vance/walz - Oct. 1

**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****

***
harris’ not so good ABC interview just got worse. According to Tom Elliott, the founder of Grabien, a media service that archives news coverage, the network made a substantial edit to the interview before broadcasting it.

Elliott pointed out that the portion where Harris struggled to provide a coherent answer was completely cut from the televised version. Instead of airing the original response, ABC 6 reportedly spliced in a different part of the interview.

In the recorded broadcast, Taff’s question about lowering costs is still heard, but Harris’ actual response is replaced with a later, more polished segment.

ABC6 is in the process of trying to bury the whole incident.

***
ABC whistleblower affidavit has been released yesterday. It alleges as a sworn statement under penalty of perjury that ABC coordinated with the Harris campaign to give her sample questions, assurances that Trump would be fact checked and Kamala would not, and favorable accommodations for Kamala’s appearance on screen.

Its contents has already been echoed by the anchorette Lindsey Davis, who has openly declared they deliberately directed the attack on Trump. Davis told the Times that ABC had deliberately targeted Trump — and only Trump — because of perceptions that he had been allowed to get away with false statements in the CNN debate against President Joe Biden in late June.

***
Tim Walz is encouraging democrats to confront individuals in grocery stores in an effort to get them to vote for harris.

A grocery store, really? Has Walz seen grocery prices lately? Has he been inside a grocery store in the last 4 years? Has he seen the effects of harris/biden’s policies on the prices of groceries. The Babylon Bee couldn’t do a good a job.

Illegal Immigration –

More spin surrounding the problems that imported haitans have brought to Springfield OH. Meanwhile the cats continue to drive the left nutz on the overall issue.

Ukraine –

RUMINT –

More rumblings about allowing Ukraine to use western long range munitions to hit strategic targets in Russia continue. At this stage, my guess is that the west will concede to elements of a target list submitted by Ukraine in order to ‘control’ any escalation with Russia.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

The Ukrainian Air Force reported on another large drone attack overnight. Out of 56 launched Shahed drones, 53 were shot down. Another 3 were lost on Ukrainian territory, likely due to EW measures.

Ukraine Kursk Offensive-

Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Uspenovka and Borky villages of Kursk region.

Ukraine’s second incursion continues to grow and in the direction of the Russian rear areas of forces currently counterattacking the Kursk salient.

Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -

Russia pressing more attacks across the whole Donbas front.

Outlook —

Russia continues to devote substantial resources in the fight to capture the donbas. However, dwindling men and armor are seriously hampering the efforts.

The Kursk fight continues to be one of maneuver, which the Ukrainians are serving it up on Russia, inspire of Russia regaining some territory. Russia’s efforts appear to be stalling.

Meanwhile, Ukraine’s second penetration into Russia continues to grow.

Belarus -

Russian shahed drone entered Belarus airspace, loitered around for a considerable time before exiting the country. No fighter assists were scrambled to deal with it.

ISRAEL –

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Continued search and destroy operations. Artillery and air strikes across the whole overnight.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli Radio: the head of the northern commander says his forces are ready to occupy a “security zone” on the Lebanese side.

Israel Defense Minister Gallant told US Secretary of Defense that the time to a diplomatic solution to the war with Hezbollah is passing, the “direction is clear”

———WEST BANK——————————-

Aggressive Israeli security forces operations continue.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Follow up. The ballistic missile launched by the Iran-backed Houthis from Yemen at central Israel was hit by an interceptor missile, although it did not manage to completely destroy the target, according to an Israeli Air Force probe.

The missile had been identified upon launch from northwestern Yemen, and the Arrow long-range defense system was activated to intercept it. Several interceptor missiles were launched at the target in attempts to down it.

At least one of the Arrow interceptors hit the missile, but did not destroy it completely, the probe finds. Instead, the interceptor caused the Houthi missile to break apart in the air, and the warhead, as well as other pieces, fell to the ground.

The missile fired at Israel by the Houthis on Sunday was not a hypersonic missile, as claimed by the Houthis, but rather an outdated surface-to-surface ballistic missile upgraded by Iran,

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Egyptian Foreign Minister: Israel must be pressured to end the crisis and cease fire in Gaza. The situation in the Palestinian territories cannot continue like this

——— FORECAST ————————-

Talk by military and civilian leaders shifting more towards the eventual war with Hezbollah, preparing the people for it. Such has a short shelf life, so the move into Lebanon may well be happening soon. Lack of reporting as well as Israeli OPSEC seems to be masking a lot of indicators of impending action - such as troop movements, etc. It does appear that the IAF is hitting a lot more munitions related targets and doing so in a much harder way than in the past.

Will Israel generate a false flag incident to justify the assault, or just go in guns blazing anyway. I think the latter is more likely. Hezbollah with its increasing rocket attacks on the north is justification enough.

Syria -

Syria: tonight several explosions were heard in outskirts of US base in Rumaylan (Hasakah province). Up to 3 suicide drones were reportedly shot down

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