CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
***
See “Illegals” RE Venezuelan gangs taking over more turf.
IMHO - The concept of a CW2 is becoming very multifaceted versus the old school comparison to CW1. Not only do we have gross political differences across americans, but we now have other aspects thrown in due to uncontrolled illegal immigration. The most apparent has been the rise of gangs that are beginning to challenge what I would call ‘old school’ gangs, with the potential to kick off new gang wars in some ways similar to the cartel wars in Mexico.
Another area is the increase in radical islamic/moslem threats. We’ve already seen how somali ‘refugees’ have turned parts of Minnesota into copies of their third world garbage dumps. The growth of imported islam displayed its budding strength in the pro-hamas university protests this spring. Shriah law is fundamentally hostile to our Constitutional rights and yet it is being forced into communities.
Finally, we have the rebuild of 60/70s style leftists and anarchists in today’s Antifa and BLM. Here grows simple racism on the BLM front combined with the wanton destructive tendencies of Antifa’s hardened push for leftist control.
Should the leftist democrats finally push things to far and political war goes hot, these other elements will begin to more strongly vie for political and economic control of territory, sometimes teaming up with leftists, other times against - occasionally very fluid associations.
Ground zero for much of this fighting will be major urban areas as more rural areas are far more homogeneous in demographics and more moderate to conservative in general. This doesn’t mean they are immune from internal strife, just more prone to work things out.
Areas closer to urban areas will see the effects of urban fighting working their way out due in part to degradation of resources - food, etc - but many consider that they will be out of their territory with little fall back support. Aurora CO, being a suburb of Denver, would represent the very earliest stage of this outward movement of criminal elements towards more rural areas. Venezuelan gangs will have difficulties blending in areas of wheat fields and cattle rangeland, let alone facing armed citizens that can plunk them at 300-400 yards.
By all factors above plus others such as US military involvement, other illegal immigrant groups (Chinese) etc, a ‘hot’ civil war will be far more fluid and diverse than traditional views. All of these elements seem to be orbiting, seeking a reason and opportunity to hit the go button. Many think the ‘go’ button may revolve around the upcoming election.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Observers are noting that biden’s mental state from yesterday’s campaign appearances with harris have been greatly degraded. Most likely that they are no longer keeping him hyped up with drugs and the natural course is fully taking over.
Illegal Immigration –
Unconfirmed report that a group of 32 armed Venezuelans took over an apartment building in Chicago tonight based on a police scanner call -
6124 S King: caller says 32 Venezuelans are trespassing in the building, they are showing guns in the courtyard and they have motorcycles in the courtyard as well, all stairwells are filled.
OBSERVATION - This kind of action is growing and will likely grow to other major metropolitan areas.
Russia -
Logistics –
European officials expect Iran to deliver ballistic missiles to Russia imminently, a move that could prompt a swift response from Ukraine’s allies, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. They didn’t provide estimates of the type and scope of the deliveries or a timeline, though one of the officials said shipments could begin within a matter of days.
Russia’s acquisition of Ababil or Fateh-360 ballistic missiles would likely allow Russia to strike Ukrainian near-rear targets while preserving Russia’s stockpiles of domestically-produced missiles, such as Iskanders, for deep-rear Ukrainian targets.
Economic Impact –
September 3, 2024: Russian railroads are at the point of collapse. This process began before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. This process was underway before Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022. The covid-19 pandemic disrupted ball bearing production worldwide. When production was back to normal, there were problems providing customers with all the ball bearings they requested. Another problem is that Russia has always imported most of its ball bearings, usually from American and West European manufacturers.
After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, most western suppliers of ball bearings ceased filling Russian orders. This caused a major shortage of the things in Russia as it was in the process of shifting all of its trains to relatively new coil bearings, none of which were produced in Russia. Since ball bearings are used in automotive equipment, which includes tanks and other armored vehicles, these vehicles received priority because Russia needed weapons for its troops in Ukraine. This was a higher priority that supplying Russian railroads. This ball bearing shortage for Russia’s state owned and operated railroads has, in the last few years gradually reduced service. By 2024 the Russian railroads were much less capable of moving people or freight over the vast Russian railroad system. These disruptions were also felt by essential long-distance routes like the Trans-Siberian line. The net result of all this is a sharp reduction the ability of the Russian military to move men, weapons, equipment and supplies by rail. Trucks, canal boats, high seas shipping and airfreight could not make up for the loss of railroad capacity even if they had enough ball bearings, but they don’t because they now suffer from ball bearing shortages too.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlog/articles/2024090302148.aspx#google_vignette
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian Air Defense shot down 27 Shahed drones overnight
Russia is launching Shaheds from Belarus for the first time in the war. This is the equivalent of Ukraine launching missiles at Russia from NATO territory
This is an escalation by Russia
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Ukraine made some gains overnight, but largely the situation is stable.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Fighting continues to go bad for Ukraine as Russian forces continue their advances. Current Russian attacks indicate that they are concerned over their flanks as well as forward progress, now dividing up assaults more to shore up the flanks.
Russian Territory –
The Moscow Oil Refinery has halted half of its operations after a Ukrainian drone strike. The refinery, which supplies a third of Moscow’s gasoline and is the largest kerosene supplier for its airports, had to shut down its Euro+ oil processing unit.
Outlook —
The Russian push in the Donbas continues to be a significant concern. However, it doesn’t appear that Russian has the capabilities to exploit any break throughs because of equipment and personnel issues. The vast amount of new soldiers are headed for this region in spite of Ukraine operations in Kursk. Russian equation is that Kursk is not as critical as the Russian goals and efforts in Donbas.
Firing shaheds from Belarus? That is the latest reports. It is not surprising since Russian staged part of its initial invasion from Belarus and has fired ballistic missiles from there too. It is unlikely that at this time Ukraine will retaliate and hit Belarus launching areas.
Influx of Iranian missiles into the fight may tip the western allies into letting Ukraine use deep strike capabilities into Russia. With shaheds fired from Belarus Russian may face deeper threats. Russian nuclear threats against attacking its territory have been shown so far to be hollow, so escalating the fight to military staging areas may open up finally for Ukraine.
Poland –
Poland and its neighboring partner countries are obligated to intercept Russian missiles in Ukrainian airspace before they enter NATO airspace. This was stated by Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski. He emphasized that while there are concerns about escalating the conflict, NATO members must ensure their own airspace security, as intercepting missiles over Ukrainian territory is a legitimate act of self-defense to protect civilians from potential harm.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas gives instructions to kill hostages if it appears Israel forces are close to finding and releasing them.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The spokesperson for Hamas’ armed wing al-Qassam Brigades, Abu Ubaida, announced on Monday that the group has issued new instructions to guards on how to handle hostages if Israeli forces approach their locations in Gaza.
On Sunday, the Israeli military reported the recovery of the bodies of six hostages from a tunnel in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, claiming that Hamas was responsible for their deaths. Ubaida said his group holds Israel responsible for the deaths.
He said the new instructions, which he didn’t detail, were given to guards of hostages after a rescue operation by Israel in June. At that time, Israeli forces freed four hostages in a deadly raid in which dozens of Palestinians, including women and children, were killed.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/hamas-israel-hostages/2024/09/02/id/1178778/#ixzz8kiamznYL
NOTE - the instructions are essentially to kill the hostages if Israel forces close on their positions.
RELATED - Hamas has been releasing ‘final word’ videos of some of the hostages as part of a psyops campaign against Israel.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IDF spokesman: Overnight, fighter jets of the Air Force attacked about ten launchers of the Hezbollah, which posed a threat to the citizens of the State of Israel in the areas of Zabkin and Shehin in southern Lebanon. The strike caused some of the rockets to fire randomly and uncontrollably.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security source to Sky News Arabia: We have observed an increase in Iranian efforts to turn the West Bank into a real battlefield
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi military spokesman: We carried out an operation targeting a ship in the Red Sea after it violated the ban on entering Palestinian ports.
Three ships have been hit in the past week
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
British Defense Minister: We are fully committed to defending Israel
NOTE - this comes after the british announcement that they are suspending sales of 30 kinds of munitions to Israel.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Smaller, preemptive strike hit 10 launch areas preparing for an attack. Hezbollah still not doing well and Israel intel is wining.
Hama’s latest order to kill hostages, combined with ever hardening position that Israel must pull out of all Gaza before any more hostages are released has all but stopped any reasonably productive negotiations. It was already a given that hamas was a bunch of cold blooded killers, the order only confirms that.
Iran (and Hezbollah) have otherwise been relatively quiet. Israel continues to have its way attacking Hezbollah leaders and facilities. Iran has grown quieter, but IMHO, potentially more deadly as I strongly suspect that it is going all out to develop a nuclear bomb. The device is unlikely to be mountable on an existing rocket, but could be deployed by other means, such as a cargo container close to US / western ships, etc, for crude targeting. But to project that threat is has to be pretty clear that they have one.
Forecast includes now pretty much routine search and destroy ops in Gaza and continued exchanges of fire in the north.
Syria -
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces, partnered with Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), captured an ISIS leader, who was assessed as helping ISIS fighters after escape from a Raqqah Detention Facility in Syria. During the early morning hours of Sept. 1, CENTCOM forces and SDF captured Khaled Ahmed al-Dandal, an ISIS facilitator assessed to be aiding efforts of detained ISIS fighters to include recently escaped fighters. Previously, on Aug. 29, five ISIS Foreign Terrorist Fighter detainees (Two Russians, two Afghans, and one Libyan) escaped from the Raqqah Detention Facility. SDF recaptured two escapees: Imam Abdulwahed Akhwan (Russian) and Muhammad Noh Muhammad (Libyan). The search continues for the three who remain at large: Timor Talbrken Abdash (Russian) and Shuab Muhammad Al-Abdli and Atal Khaled Zar (both Afghans).
Turkey –
Two US soldiers were physically assaulted by members of a nationalist youth group in western Turkey.
15 assailants have been detained; the soldiers are now safe, confirmed the US embassy in Turkey.
Members of the Turkish Communist Party TKP organized a demonstration in Izmir calling for the expulsion of the American ship USS Wasp docked in Izmir for joint exercises with the Turkish navy.
The background: the aid given by the US military to Israel “against the Palestinian brothers”.
The protesters announced that they will not leave Izmir until the American ship leaves Turkey.
Venezuela -
The United States has seized Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro’s airplane after determining that its acquisition was in violation of US sanctions, among other criminal issues.
***
A Venezuelan court has granted an arrest warrant for opposition presidential candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia for claiming that he won the country’s recent election
Venezuelan socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro called for him to be arrested
The arrest warrant is for “usurpation” of public functions, “forgery” of a public document, incitement to disobedience, sabotage, and “association” with organized crime and financiers of “terrorism.”
OBSERVATION - Sound similar to what has been happening here?
CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
***
Small protest at Colombia U by pro-hamas hanger-ons Otherwise things are relatively calm and no major protests of the level seen this past spring are on the radar.
There are some internet rumors that there may be a major series of protests around Oct 7 - the one year anniversary of the Hamas atrocity and attack on Israel.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Almost overlooked this. The end of the FY is approaching and last minute scrambles to get the books right will be ensuing at all levels, private and governmental. By far the greatest item being watched is the decision by the Fed on rates. General consensus is that recent jobs data - including the massive correction - have the Fed looking at least a quarter point reduction. Some analysts I’ve read suggest that if the job numbers for August are weak, the fed may drop for a whole half point. That would make some on wall street happy - more money entering the market. OTOH, it would be admitting that the economy is in worst shape than what they’ve been touting, which could send tremors off in other sectors of the market. The political aspect is all of this will be wrapped up in the mantra of the best economy ever, trying to gaslight the public into voting for harris.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Oct 2- 5: International Bird Flu Summit in DC
The state of Kansas filed a lawsuit against Pfizer on Monday, alleging that the pharmaceutical giant misled the public about the safety and effectiveness of its COVID-19 vaccine.
The lawsuit, submitted in the District Court of Thomas County, claims that Pfizer violated the Kansas Consumer Protection Act by making false statements and concealing potential risks.
“Pfizer made multiple misleading statements to deceive the public about its vaccine at a time when Americans needed the truth,” Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach said in a statement.
The lawsuit alleges that shortly after the vaccine’s rollout in early 2021, Pfizer concealed evidence linking the shot to pregnancy complications, including miscarriage, as well as inflammation of the heart and surrounding areas, known as myocarditis and pericarditis.
OBSERVATION - I remember noting that there were covered up reports regarding pregnancy complications, including miscarriage. It was covered up by pseudo medical speech and pushed to the side as conspiracy theory. Now 4 years down the road and this is no longer conspiracy theory but medically validated facts. Pfizer loses protections granted by the emergency use authorization if it is proven that there is fraud in its presentation of the data. Already, via multiple lawsuits Pfizer is losing that protection, this is another block taken out of the protective wall.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - September 18
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Caveat above alert - seeing more pollsters like Nate Silver, demonstrating that harris’ leads are relatively quickly fading and in many cases reverting back to Trump. The massively funded PR campaign by the democrats continue to beat the drum on how well their candidate is doing. Remember, she didn’t even get 1% of the vote in her 2020 bid. How much more lipstick can be put on the pig is yet to be seen.
***
A former deputy chief of staff to New York Gov. Kathy Hochul was charged Tuesday with acting as an undisclosed agent of the Chinese government, federal prosecutors revealed in a sprawling indictment.
Linda Sun, who held numerous posts in New York state government before rising to the rank of deputy chief of staff for Hochul, was arrested Tuesday morning along with her husband at their $3.5 million home on Long Island.
https://www.kcra.com/article/kathy-hochul-aide-charged-chinese-agent/62045002
OBSERVATION - They are burrowed everywhere and we’ve know it for decades. Their technology grabs and political antics a part and parcel to their long game. Leftists here just think they are best buddies - until it turns out they are ready to knife them in the back.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden excuses himself from campaigning more because the SS says it is ‘safe’ for him to do so? Is this ‘safe’ an outside threat or from his own decaying health and mental conditions.
Illegal Immigration –
Connecticut Law Enforcement are now being warned about the violent Venezualan gang “Tren de Aragua.”
Police reports already confirmed their presence in 11 states and it’s estimated around 1,000 members are in our country illegally.
***
Across New York, recently arrived migrants are flooding the criminal-justice system — at far higher rates than public officials have acknowledged.
Police sources shared with The Post a staggering estimate that as many as 75% of the people they’ve been arresting in Midtown Manhattan in recent months for crimes like assault, robbery and domestic violence are migrants. In parts of Queens, the figure is more than 60%, sources there estimate.
On any given day, Big Apple criminal court dockets are packed with asylum seekers who have run afoul of the law.
OBSERVATION - NYC has a double whammy. First being a sanctuary city, second the massively liberal DA/courts system. In a growing number of instances, these are multiple repeat offenders. This is what harris et al are wanting for all of america.
***
(FO) The Mexican government’s National Immigration Institute said it will offer escorted bus rides for non-Mexican immigrants from southern Mexico to the U.S. border.
The Biden administration expanded use of the CBP One app to southern Mexico after pressure from the Mexican government.
OBSERVATION - Official arrests on the border have gone down, but it appears totals are going up as these CBP One passes have gone up. Now the flood via this method is guaranteed to go up with the bussing program.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia making more threats to use nukes should Ukraine be allowed to use western missiles to strike deeper into Russia.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range and fair.
NOTE - Operationally, the dry season normally begins to transition to the wet fall season and the return to the Ukraine mud - which will severely limit offensive operations - especially those needing to move across open terrain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Karlivka and Prechystivka villages of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Another large missile and drone attack against Ukraine. Russian cruise missiles, launched by Tu-95MS bombers have entered airspace of Ukraine in Chernihiv region, flying towards Kyiv region
Shahed drones are over western and northern regions
Ukrainian air defense shot down 4 of 6 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 3 of 3 Iskander-K cruise missiles, 22 of 29 Shahed drones. Additionally Russia launched 2 Kh-47m2 Kinzhal missiles and 2 Kh-22 missiles
Another 6 shahed drones were lost and fell independently, probably due to EW measures.
Russian missiles attacked the city of Lviv, western Ukraine overnight, says mayor Andriy Sadovyi and Lviv regional administration head Maksym Kozytskyi. 2 people were killed, 19 injured, including 2 children aged 10 and 15; 15 adults hospitalized and 5 are in serious condition.
According to Ukrainian monitoring resources, at least 4 Shahed-type kamikaze drones flew into Belarus last night. One of them disappeared in the north.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Ukraine general estimates that there is about 2-3 weeks remaining in the window of opportunity to seize more ground in Kursk before Russian reinforcements are organized and set in place for defensive operations.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
At Pokrovsk axis clashes yesterday near Zelene Pole, Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolubivka, Novotroyitske, Selidove, Novohrodivka, Hrodivka and Mykhaylivka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Death toll of Russian missile strikes in Lviv increased to 7 killed, 42 wounded. Rescue operation is ongoing
Outlook —
Russia continues to keep the pressure on with the deep game in the latest missile/drone strikes. This most likely in response to Ukraine’s recent large drone strikes in the Moscow region. The nasty measure of the Russian strikes are that they appear to indiscriminately target civilian buildings such as apartments and hospitals.
Russia seemingly has redoubled its assaults in the Donbas region, and especially the Pokrovsk axis. Ukraine is losing land, though Russian is paying for it in high casualties. Well over 1000 per day. For now Russia seems to be able to backfill the losses, but doing so at a cost to its economy (loss of workers) and it is running out of fighting age people in balance.
For the near term, I don’t expect to see much change. However, should Russian forces reach Pokrovsk, things could get really dicey for Ukraine and they’ll have to make some serious choices.
Belarus -
More stray Shaheds came into the country from the latest Russian missile/drone attack.
Poland –
Poland reported another “tense” night for its air defense systems due to a Russian attack on Ukraine. In response, Polish military forces scrambled their fighter jets.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Negotiations continue for a hostage release and ceasefire. Hamas continues to regress to harder and harder demands.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
After the murder of the abductees, including an American citizen, the US Department of Justice decided to file charges against a number of senior members of the Hamas terrorist organization responsible for the murder and terrorism on October 7th. Ismail Haniyeh (already eliminated); Yahya Sinwar (stays in Gaza); Muhammad Daf (already eliminated); Marwan Issa (already eliminated); Khaled Mashal (stays in Qatar); Ali Bracha (stays in Lebanon)
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continued search and destroy operations. Regular Israeli forces being given new orders in regards to operating near areas thought to contain hostages. Forces are to attempt to hold back and let Israeli special ops do their thing. This based on the evidence and reports that the latest murdered hostages were killed because Israeli units were operating in close proximity to the tunnel, in addition to captured orders for the execution of hostages should they be located and rescue efforts attempted.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army: 60 rockets fired from Lebanon towards northern areas since this morning. Damage was caused to property in Kiryat Shmona, authorities say.
Israel has been responding with elevated numbers of artillery and air strikes across S Lebanon.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued high tempo Israeli security operations in and around Jenin and other locations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed targeting the port of Haifa in Israel, Wednesday, September 4, 2024, using drones.
Israeli media: A number of drones were intercepted over Jordanian airspace before entering Israeli territory
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Egypt denounces Israeli PM Netanyahu’s claim that Hamas receives its weapons from Egypt through the Philadelphia Corridor
Saudi Foreign Ministry: We warn of the consequences of provocative Israeli statements in undermining the efforts of Egyptian, Qatari and American mediation. We condemn the Israeli statements regarding the Philadelphi Corridor and the futile attempts to justify the continued Israeli violations of international laws and norms
Palestinian Presidency: We reject the presence of any Israeli forces on the Philadelphi Corridor or the Rafah Crossing
——— FORECAST ————————-
Though Netanyahu is under great pressure to make deep concessions to hamas to earn the release of hostages, the demands go far beyond what Israel can tolerate at this stage in the game. Demanded concessions would only further strengthen Hamas’ hand with the hostages and more than likely encourage them to break the ceasefire agreement to try to force further concessions in exchange of hostages. Contrary to what some liberal media outlets indicate, support for continued operations remain strong.
Hezbollah has been gradually ramping up its rocket attacks over the past few weeks. I suspect that this is in response to Israel’s constant and successful operations taking out Hezbollah leaders and facilities. However, the levels are not that large to really affect Israeli defenses. In fact, they provide Israel with additional intel on launch procedures/warnings, locations and ammo dumps; which they plow back into the targeting process.
Iran’s response has continued to be relatively silent. In part potentially trying to avoid drawing attention to its apparent weakness in responding. I think on the short term they will continue to hold off until some of the US military presence in the region is draw down and if they can lull Israel into a sense of security mindset. I could be wrong on this because from all appearances, Iran has pushed forward with preparation early on, so that any additional actions may well be minimal.
Turkey –
Turkey has formally requested to join the BRICS group of emerging economies, Bloomberg cited informed sources as saying on Monday.
Ankara “seeks to bolster its global influence and forge new ties beyond its traditional Western allies,” the sources said. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes “that the geopolitical center of gravity is shifting away from developed economies” and that the push to join BRICS “reflects its aspirations to cultivate ties with all sides in a multipolar world, while still fulfilling its obligations as a key member of NATO.”
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in early June that BRICS serves as a good alternative to the EU. Later that month, he confirmed that dialogue between Ankara and BRICS nations was ongoing – coming as Turkish frustration continued to grow due to stalled efforts to join the EU.
OBSERVATION - Turkey continues to move away from the west and gravitating towards Russian/China’s political and economic circles. A great deal of this separation is due to the radical islamic principals Erdogan has fostered in the country and his growing desire to become the renewed caliphate of the region.
Central / South America General-
Brazil continues to be a threat to X and free speech / information. It seems that the chief justice’s soft coup may be hitting a wall both internally and externally.