CW2 / Domestic violence - Moderate to High THREAT - up dated July 14, 2024
— Attempted assassination of Trump.
***
Small protest at Colombia U by pro-hamas hanger-ons Otherwise things are relatively calm and no major protests of the level seen this past spring are on the radar.
There are some internet rumors that there may be a major series of protests around Oct 7 - the one year anniversary of the Hamas atrocity and attack on Israel.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Almost overlooked this. The end of the FY is approaching and last minute scrambles to get the books right will be ensuing at all levels, private and governmental. By far the greatest item being watched is the decision by the Fed on rates. General consensus is that recent jobs data - including the massive correction - have the Fed looking at least a quarter point reduction. Some analysts I’ve read suggest that if the job numbers for August are weak, the fed may drop for a whole half point. That would make some on wall street happy - more money entering the market. OTOH, it would be admitting that the economy is in worst shape than what they’ve been touting, which could send tremors off in other sectors of the market. The political aspect is all of this will be wrapped up in the mantra of the best economy ever, trying to gaslight the public into voting for harris.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Oct 2- 5: International Bird Flu Summit in DC
The state of Kansas filed a lawsuit against Pfizer on Monday, alleging that the pharmaceutical giant misled the public about the safety and effectiveness of its COVID-19 vaccine.
The lawsuit, submitted in the District Court of Thomas County, claims that Pfizer violated the Kansas Consumer Protection Act by making false statements and concealing potential risks.
“Pfizer made multiple misleading statements to deceive the public about its vaccine at a time when Americans needed the truth,” Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach said in a statement.
The lawsuit alleges that shortly after the vaccine’s rollout in early 2021, Pfizer concealed evidence linking the shot to pregnancy complications, including miscarriage, as well as inflammation of the heart and surrounding areas, known as myocarditis and pericarditis.
OBSERVATION - I remember noting that there were covered up reports regarding pregnancy complications, including miscarriage. It was covered up by pseudo medical speech and pushed to the side as conspiracy theory. Now 4 years down the road and this is no longer conspiracy theory but medically validated facts. Pfizer loses protections granted by the emergency use authorization if it is proven that there is fraud in its presentation of the data. Already, via multiple lawsuits Pfizer is losing that protection, this is another block taken out of the protective wall.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - September 18
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Caveat above alert - seeing more pollsters like Nate Silver, demonstrating that harris’ leads are relatively quickly fading and in many cases reverting back to Trump. The massively funded PR campaign by the democrats continue to beat the drum on how well their candidate is doing. Remember, she didn’t even get 1% of the vote in her 2020 bid. How much more lipstick can be put on the pig is yet to be seen.
***
A former deputy chief of staff to New York Gov. Kathy Hochul was charged Tuesday with acting as an undisclosed agent of the Chinese government, federal prosecutors revealed in a sprawling indictment.
Linda Sun, who held numerous posts in New York state government before rising to the rank of deputy chief of staff for Hochul, was arrested Tuesday morning along with her husband at their $3.5 million home on Long Island.
https://www.kcra.com/article/kathy-hochul-aide-charged-chinese-agent/62045002
OBSERVATION - They are burrowed everywhere and we’ve know it for decades. Their technology grabs and political antics a part and parcel to their long game. Leftists here just think they are best buddies - until it turns out they are ready to knife them in the back.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden excuses himself from campaigning more because the SS says it is ‘safe’ for him to do so? Is this ‘safe’ an outside threat or from his own decaying health and mental conditions.
Illegal Immigration –
Connecticut Law Enforcement are now being warned about the violent Venezualan gang “Tren de Aragua.”
Police reports already confirmed their presence in 11 states and it’s estimated around 1,000 members are in our country illegally.
***
Across New York, recently arrived migrants are flooding the criminal-justice system — at far higher rates than public officials have acknowledged.
Police sources shared with The Post a staggering estimate that as many as 75% of the people they’ve been arresting in Midtown Manhattan in recent months for crimes like assault, robbery and domestic violence are migrants. In parts of Queens, the figure is more than 60%, sources there estimate.
On any given day, Big Apple criminal court dockets are packed with asylum seekers who have run afoul of the law.
OBSERVATION - NYC has a double whammy. First being a sanctuary city, second the massively liberal DA/courts system. In a growing number of instances, these are multiple repeat offenders. This is what harris et al are wanting for all of america.
***
(FO) The Mexican government’s National Immigration Institute said it will offer escorted bus rides for non-Mexican immigrants from southern Mexico to the U.S. border.
The Biden administration expanded use of the CBP One app to southern Mexico after pressure from the Mexican government.
OBSERVATION - Official arrests on the border have gone down, but it appears totals are going up as these CBP One passes have gone up. Now the flood via this method is guaranteed to go up with the bussing program.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia making more threats to use nukes should Ukraine be allowed to use western missiles to strike deeper into Russia.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range and fair.
NOTE - Operationally, the dry season normally begins to transition to the wet fall season and the return to the Ukraine mud - which will severely limit offensive operations - especially those needing to move across open terrain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed full occupation of Karlivka and Prechystivka villages of Donetsk region of Ukraine
Another large missile and drone attack against Ukraine. Russian cruise missiles, launched by Tu-95MS bombers have entered airspace of Ukraine in Chernihiv region, flying towards Kyiv region
Shahed drones are over western and northern regions
Ukrainian air defense shot down 4 of 6 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 3 of 3 Iskander-K cruise missiles, 22 of 29 Shahed drones. Additionally Russia launched 2 Kh-47m2 Kinzhal missiles and 2 Kh-22 missiles
Another 6 shahed drones were lost and fell independently, probably due to EW measures.
Russian missiles attacked the city of Lviv, western Ukraine overnight, says mayor Andriy Sadovyi and Lviv regional administration head Maksym Kozytskyi. 2 people were killed, 19 injured, including 2 children aged 10 and 15; 15 adults hospitalized and 5 are in serious condition.
According to Ukrainian monitoring resources, at least 4 Shahed-type kamikaze drones flew into Belarus last night. One of them disappeared in the north.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Ukraine general estimates that there is about 2-3 weeks remaining in the window of opportunity to seize more ground in Kursk before Russian reinforcements are organized and set in place for defensive operations.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
At Pokrovsk axis clashes yesterday near Zelene Pole, Vozdvyzhenka, Myrolubivka, Novotroyitske, Selidove, Novohrodivka, Hrodivka and Mykhaylivka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports.
Western / Central Ukraine ——
Death toll of Russian missile strikes in Lviv increased to 7 killed, 42 wounded. Rescue operation is ongoing
Outlook —
Russia continues to keep the pressure on with the deep game in the latest missile/drone strikes. This most likely in response to Ukraine’s recent large drone strikes in the Moscow region. The nasty measure of the Russian strikes are that they appear to indiscriminately target civilian buildings such as apartments and hospitals.
Russia seemingly has redoubled its assaults in the Donbas region, and especially the Pokrovsk axis. Ukraine is losing land, though Russian is paying for it in high casualties. Well over 1000 per day. For now Russia seems to be able to backfill the losses, but doing so at a cost to its economy (loss of workers) and it is running out of fighting age people in balance.
For the near term, I don’t expect to see much change. However, should Russian forces reach Pokrovsk, things could get really dicey for Ukraine and they’ll have to make some serious choices.
Belarus -
More stray Shaheds came into the country from the latest Russian missile/drone attack.
Poland –
Poland reported another “tense” night for its air defense systems due to a Russian attack on Ukraine. In response, Polish military forces scrambled their fighter jets.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Negotiations continue for a hostage release and ceasefire. Hamas continues to regress to harder and harder demands.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
After the murder of the abductees, including an American citizen, the US Department of Justice decided to file charges against a number of senior members of the Hamas terrorist organization responsible for the murder and terrorism on October 7th. Ismail Haniyeh (already eliminated); Yahya Sinwar (stays in Gaza); Muhammad Daf (already eliminated); Marwan Issa (already eliminated); Khaled Mashal (stays in Qatar); Ali Bracha (stays in Lebanon)
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continued search and destroy operations. Regular Israeli forces being given new orders in regards to operating near areas thought to contain hostages. Forces are to attempt to hold back and let Israeli special ops do their thing. This based on the evidence and reports that the latest murdered hostages were killed because Israeli units were operating in close proximity to the tunnel, in addition to captured orders for the execution of hostages should they be located and rescue efforts attempted.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli army: 60 rockets fired from Lebanon towards northern areas since this morning. Damage was caused to property in Kiryat Shmona, authorities say.
Israel has been responding with elevated numbers of artillery and air strikes across S Lebanon.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued high tempo Israeli security operations in and around Jenin and other locations.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed targeting the port of Haifa in Israel, Wednesday, September 4, 2024, using drones.
Israeli media: A number of drones were intercepted over Jordanian airspace before entering Israeli territory
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Egypt denounces Israeli PM Netanyahu’s claim that Hamas receives its weapons from Egypt through the Philadelphia Corridor
Saudi Foreign Ministry: We warn of the consequences of provocative Israeli statements in undermining the efforts of Egyptian, Qatari and American mediation. We condemn the Israeli statements regarding the Philadelphi Corridor and the futile attempts to justify the continued Israeli violations of international laws and norms
Palestinian Presidency: We reject the presence of any Israeli forces on the Philadelphi Corridor or the Rafah Crossing
——— FORECAST ————————-
Though Netanyahu is under great pressure to make deep concessions to hamas to earn the release of hostages, the demands go far beyond what Israel can tolerate at this stage in the game. Demanded concessions would only further strengthen Hamas’ hand with the hostages and more than likely encourage them to break the ceasefire agreement to try to force further concessions in exchange of hostages. Contrary to what some liberal media outlets indicate, support for continued operations remain strong.
Hezbollah has been gradually ramping up its rocket attacks over the past few weeks. I suspect that this is in response to Israel’s constant and successful operations taking out Hezbollah leaders and facilities. However, the levels are not that large to really affect Israeli defenses. In fact, they provide Israel with additional intel on launch procedures/warnings, locations and ammo dumps; which they plow back into the targeting process.
Iran’s response has continued to be relatively silent. In part potentially trying to avoid drawing attention to its apparent weakness in responding. I think on the short term they will continue to hold off until some of the US military presence in the region is draw down and if they can lull Israel into a sense of security mindset. I could be wrong on this because from all appearances, Iran has pushed forward with preparation early on, so that any additional actions may well be minimal.
Turkey –
Turkey has formally requested to join the BRICS group of emerging economies, Bloomberg cited informed sources as saying on Monday.
Ankara “seeks to bolster its global influence and forge new ties beyond its traditional Western allies,” the sources said. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan believes “that the geopolitical center of gravity is shifting away from developed economies” and that the push to join BRICS “reflects its aspirations to cultivate ties with all sides in a multipolar world, while still fulfilling its obligations as a key member of NATO.”
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said in early June that BRICS serves as a good alternative to the EU. Later that month, he confirmed that dialogue between Ankara and BRICS nations was ongoing – coming as Turkish frustration continued to grow due to stalled efforts to join the EU.
OBSERVATION - Turkey continues to move away from the west and gravitating towards Russian/China’s political and economic circles. A great deal of this separation is due to the radical islamic principals Erdogan has fostered in the country and his growing desire to become the renewed caliphate of the region.
Central / South America General-
Brazil continues to be a threat to X and free speech / information. It seems that the chief justice’s soft coup may be hitting a wall both internally and externally.
Democrats are pushing 'regristered voter' polls which are worthless since they include people who have never voted and those too stupid to follow what's happening. In Florida we have 'motor voter' - people can register to vote when they get their driver's license...those polls are worthless beyond how to highlight how many stupid people would vote if they weren't too stupid to find out where and how to vote.
Heads up - Saturday and Sunday posts may be disrupted due to other events going on in my life.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed job openings dropped to a 3-1/2-year low in July, suggesting the labor market was losing steam, but probably not enough for the Federal Reserve to consider a big interest rate cut this month.
The data comes ahead of the crucial August non-farm payrolls numbers due on Friday, which could sway bets on the size of the U.S. central bank’s expected rate cut. (Reuters)
***
U.S. economic activity expanded more slowly from mid July through late August and businesses reported less hiring, signals that underscore why the Federal Reserve is set to lower interest rates later this month.
The U.S. central bank’s latest temperature check on the health of the economy also showed that inflation pressures increased at a modest pace.
“Economic activity grew slightly in three Districts, while the number of Districts that reported flat or declining activity rose from five in the prior period to nine in the current period,” the Fed said on Wednesday in the survey known as the “Beige Book,” which polled business contacts across the central bank’s 12 districts through Aug. 26. “Employers were more selective with their hires and less likely to expand their workforces, citing concerns about demand and an uncertain economic outlook.”
The analysis, released roughly every six weeks, comes as Fed Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues have made clear they intend to cut interest rates from the current 5.25%-5.50% range, where they have been for more than a year, at their next policy meeting on Sept. 17-18. The only uncertainty is if weakening labor market conditions merit a quarter percentage point cut or a larger-than-normal half percentage point reduction.
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/fed-u-s-economy-beige/2024/09/04/id/1179070/
OBSERVATION - A “soft” job market will place pressure on the Fed to go beyond the 1/4 point reduction in the prime rate. The August non-farms report is likely to push the fed one direction or the other.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - September 18
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
Lawfare against Trump is resuming in earnest once again.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Thing are building to the debate on the 10th. However, harris is continuing to squabble over some of the rules. Also, it appears that the bulk of the questions are drifting towards subjects harris is weak on, such as the economy.
Harris is also reportedly using the same team that “helped” her prepare for the 2020 presidential debates. We all remember what a dumpster fire that was for her.
China –
China’s consul general in New York has been expelled from the US after a former assistant to the governor of New York was accused of being a foreign agent of the government in Beijing
North/South Korea –
Kim reportedly ordered the deaths of officials following disastrous flooding that killed many in N K.
Russia -
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Putin threatens with attacks against nuclear power plants, as “mirror response to attacks against Kursk and Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant”
The Russian Foreign Ministry has once again warned NATO countries of a ‘painful response’ if Ukraine repeats aggressive actions. Maria Zakharova stated that Russia wants to warn irresponsible politicians in the EU and NATO that if Kyiv undertakes new aggressive or terrorist actions, Moscow’s response will be immediate and extremely painful.
OBSERVATION - Russia has been rattling the nuclear saber for the past three years or so. Over those years, their ‘red lines’ have repeatedly been crossed with no response. If US/NATO green lite use of long range munitions for deep strikes into Russia, will it be enough for Russia to drop a nuke - and all the associated chaos that would bring into Europe.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range and fair.
NOTE - Operationally, the dry season normally begins to transition to the wet fall season and the return to the Ukraine mud - which will severely limit offensive operations - especially those needing to move across open terrain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Wild Shahed night. Ukrainian air defense shot down 60 of 78 Shahed drones overnight, 2 more return to Russia, 1 has gone to Belarus, 15 other crashed somewhere.
That ‘somewhere’ appears to be Belarus. At least 8 Shahed-type kamikaze drones flew into Belarus last night – at least two of them were destroyed.
The first group of 2 drones crossed the border with Belarus at around 01:08 and headed for Homiel. Another group of drones continued to enter the airspace of Belarus: at 02:28, 03:10, 06:47, 06:56 and 07:54.
Some of them returned to Ukraine, while others went deep into Belarus, heading for Mazyr, Khoiniki and Brahin.
Fighters of the Belarusian Air Force from Baranavichy were flying over Homiel region and launching missiles, trying to shoot down the drones
It’s known that the drone fell on a brick building of a warehouse in Homiel on Ilyicha pereulok, as a result of which the warehouse caught fire.
***
The military administration in Sumy Oblast plans to evacuate the residents of Hlukhiv, Esman and Svesa of Shostka District, as well as Manukhivka and Ivanivka of Konotop District
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Situation relatively stable ,no reported significant Ukraine gains.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
Mandatory evacuation of families with children has been announced in 31 settlements of Pokrovsk and Kramatorsk districts.
Link to figure depicting status on the Pokrovsk axis
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GWoNWlbWQAEZ3wm.jpg
Reports that at least 3 brigades have come in to reinforce against the push towards Pokrovsk. These are veteran units, reequipped and remanned. How they are being deployed is not clear yet, so unknown if they will be a core counter attack force to try to cut off the salient or just reinforce the existing defensive line.
Outlook —
Looks like Ukraine is taking action in Pokrovsk, which suggests that that fighting in that area will see a substantial increase. Over the past week Russian losses have increased by several hundred beyond the general 1000-1200 reported daily. Going along with this is an increase in loss of Russian armor and other pieces of equipment. How close is Russia to overextending its resources in Pokrovsk? Not certain, since they continue to press forward, but at the current loss rate, they will be running out soon.
Depending on how soon Russia can get Iranian missiles to the battle zone and in any amounts, it looks like Russia is switching back to relying on Shahed drones for its deep game. Key to watch out for are initial use of Iranian missiles. Could give clue as to when Russia’s next big missile attacks will start occurring.
Europe / NATO General –
Lithuania installed new ‘dragon teeth’ anti-tank barriers along the Nemunas river facing Kaliningrad, Russia.
OBSERVATION - Baltic nations are justifiably concerned that Russia has them in the cue to be next after Ukraine.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas rejects latest ceasefire / hostage efforts.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The IDF found the shaft to the tunnel in which the bodies of the hostages Hersh Goldberg-Polin, Eden Yerushalmi, Carmel Gat, Almog Sarusi, Alexander Lobanov, and Ori Danino, were found Saturday in a children’s yard, the IDF reported on Wednesday.
In a published video, a soldier explained that the IDF received clear intelligence about the location of the tunnel shaft, leading the IDF to operate in that precise location.
“As you can see, the tunnel was hidden in a child’s yard, a place where a child should be safe, and not used as a human shield for Hamas,” the soldier said in the video.
***
Hamas in a statement issued overnight between Wednesday and Thursday rejected any new cease-fire proposals, and claimed that Netanyahu’s insistence on staying on the Philadelphi Corridor was intended to thwart a deal. “Pressure must be put on Netanyahu and his government and they must be bound to what was agreed upon,” Hamas said in a statement, “We warn against falling into Netanyahu’s trap and tricks, as he uses negotiations to prolong the aggression against our people.”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Overnight, Israeli attack helicopters carried out an airstrike on Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad terror operatives at a command center embedded within the Israeli-designated humanitarian zone in central Gaza, the Israeli army says. The strike took place in the Deir al-Balah area
***
Israel is in the process of setting up defensive sites all along the Philadelphi corridor indicating that they are not planning on leaving any time soon.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Hezbollah launched in excess of 80 - 100 rockets yesterday, with some damage reported. The largest attack occurred around noon, when 65 rockets were launched in a short time toward the Upper Galilee region near the city of Kiryat Shmona. Most of the rockets landed in open areas, sparking several fires.
The IAF responded by striking over ten Hezbollah launchers and military infrastructure sites that posed a threat to the citizens of Israel in the areas of Jibbain, Zawtar El Charqiyeh, and Ramia in southern Lebanon.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Continued high tempo Israeli security operations in and around Jenin and other locations.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Hezbollah is continuing to maintain a relatively high rate of rocket fire. Largely ineffective, inviting far more effective Israeli artillery and airstrikes on its facilities and other sites. Overall, Hezbollah is getting the worst of the exchanges.
Gaza continues with search and destroy operations. Israel determination to maintain control of the Philadelphi corridor indicates that they will not allow further arms and material smuggling in from Egypt. This tactic is designed to strangle Hamas of the war materials it needs.
Iran remains like a dormant volcano - we know that at some time it will act, but the exact nature, timing and extent of that action is still obscured.
Iran –
Senior Iranian military officials have continued messaging that they will retaliate for Israel killing Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
Black Swans -
Solar activity continues to intensify. In August 2024, the average monthly sunspot number exceeded 200 for the first time in 23 years, almost doubling the official forecast.
The current solar cycle (Solar Cycle 25) wasn’t expected to be this strong. When it began in Dec. 2019, experts predicted it would be weak like its immediate predecessor Solar Cycle 24. Instead, Solar Cycle 25 may be on pace to rival some of the stronger cycles of the 20th century. Already in May 2024 we have experienced a century-class geomagnetic storm with auroras sighted in the South Pacific, central America and south Africa.
The last time sunspot counts were this high, in Sept.-Dec. 2001, the sun was winding up to launch the Great Halloween Storms of ‘03, which included the strongest X-ray solar flare ever recorded (X45) and a CME so potent it was felt by Voyager at the edge of the solar system. A repeat is not guaranteed, but current sunspot counts tell us it’s possible.
https://spaceweather.com/
OBSERVATION - The potential threats by nature seem to be pushed aside with all the other violence and political chaos going on. This current cycle was expected to be a replica of the Maunder Minimum, a very low sunspot count. As we see, the sun had different ideas and now has become VERY active. Just how dangerous this may develop is uncertain. We could have anywhere from 15 hours to several day warnings of a major coronal plasma ejection that could disrupt electrical grids across the globe.
Not just the sun, earthquakes, hurricanes, etc all pose potential for massive disasters. Just image the “BIG ONE” hitting in this current political cycle! Readiness cannot focus only on one item, but best if designed to be relatively broad spectrum enough to address other threats.
