As usual, life happens and my plans for yesterday and today got washed out by a spat of the flu. Fortunately it seems to be of the 24 hour variety, though still putting up with some aftermath symptoms. I may be able to get a post out on Sunday as well.
Terrorism - Moderate THREAT as of Sep 2, 2024
And we now know why this has quickly dropped off the media’s radar. CNN reports that Colt Gray, the Georgia high school mass shooter, allegedly posted on his Discord account in 2023 expressing a desire to kill and frustrations over transgender issues and acceptance.
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A Pakistani man living in Canada has been arrested on charges of plotting to carry out an attack on Jews in New York City, the Justice Department said Friday.
Muhammad Shahzeb Khan, 20, also known as Shahzeb Jadoon, was arrested on Wednesday on charges filed in the United States, the department said.
“The defendant is alleged to have planned a terrorist attack in New York City around October 7 of this year with the stated goal of slaughtering, in the name of (the Islamic State), as many Jewish people as possible,” Attorney General Merrick Garland said in a statement.
Khan was taken into custody by Canadian authorities in the town of Ormstown some 12 miles from the U.S.-Canada border.
The Justice Department said it will seek his extradition from Canada.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/pakistani-canada-oct-7/2024/09/06/id/1179406/
OBSERVATION - There has been a lot of rumors concerning a pro-hamas action on Oct 7 that could involve terror attacks in addition to mass demonstrations. Monitoring.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
The August jobs report came in far weaker than expected — as the previous two months’ numbers are revised DOWN (again).
Employers added 142,000 jobs in August, continuing a labor market cooling trend that has stoked fears that interest rates have been high for too long.
The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 percent.
Buried within the data is very disturbing information on who is benefitting from the jobs created. Since October 2019, native-born US workers have lost 1.4 million jobs; over the same period foreign-born workers have gained 3 million jobs.
**
(FO) According to the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Purchasing Managers Index, U.S. manufacturing contracted for a fifth consecutive month in August.
According to comments in the ISM report, industries expect the contraction of U.S. manufacturing to continue, and do not expect a rebound until after the November election.
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Economists largely agree that the labor market is “cooling,” but one recruiting industry veteran says that is a significant understatement.
Brian Howard is the founder and president of the Howard Group, a boutique search firm located in Overland Park, Kansas, that has been in business for more than 30 years, which companies hire to recruit candidates in an array of white-collar positions.
He said the job market is in “bad shape.”
Howard told FOX Business in an interview that he noticed signs of weakening about two years ago that became evident roughly 18 months ago, and he said the market has been slow to poor for the last 10 to 12 months.
https://truthrepublican.com/us-job-market-in-bad-shape-executive-recruiter-says/
OBSERVATION - A lot of going back and forth on the latest job figures. BoA analysts say it is evidence of the so called ‘soft landing’. Others note the continued reduction in employment numbers from previous months, showing a substantially softer market. The politically minded Fed wants desperately to avoid anything resembling a recession prior to the elections. The August numbers were far below projections, and as I’ve said, likely will be revised downward next month. Many analysts place this squarely into recession territory. If the Fed drops the rate by more than a quarter point, it will be an admission that their policy has likely brought us to a recession.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - September 18
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
New York Judge Juan Merchan just postponed President Trump’s September 18th sentencing until after the election, moving it to November 26th.
RELATED - Kamala Harris’s most recent FEC filing shows she paid Judge Juan Merchan’s daughter’s political firm for services.
Juan Merchan is the far-left, conflicted judge who oversaw Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s Stormy Daniels ‘hush money’ trial against President Trump.
The judge’s daughter, Loren Merchan, is a far-left political operative who worked for the Biden-Harris campaign.
Loren Merchan’s firm, Authentic Campaigns, Inc., has received tens of millions of dollars from Democrats who want to take down Trump.
GOP Congresswoman Elise Stefanik said Kamala Harris paid Loren Merchan’s company!
“Today I filed a new judicial ethics complaint with the New York State Commission because new evidence on Kamala Harris’ most recent FEC filing shows she hired and paid Acting Justice Juan Merchan’s adult daughter’s company,” GOP Congresswoman Elise Stefanik announced on Friday.
“This is a clear violation of the New York State Judicial Code of Conduct which dictates that a judge must recuse from a case where a relative up to and including the sixth degree has a financial interest in the outcome of the case,” she said.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/09/new-fec-filing-reveals-kamala-harris-paid-judge/
OBSERVATION - These are the same democrats demanding ‘ethics’ from the USSC, yet sweeping actions like this under the rug.
Biden / Harris Watch –
harris and walz continue to face plant into clearly identifiable lies over the past week. With increasing numbers of polls showing her cinderella lead over trump evaporating, she is under considerable stress to perform above expectations in the debate next week. If she performs poorly, pundits think she’ll find some excuse to bail on the second debate and revert to a basement campaign to avoid any unscripted interactions with the press.
Illegal Immigration –
Unconfirmed report that illegal gangs have been targeting the oil industry to steal items that can be resold for various purposes.
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Democrat gov of Colorado appeared to have back pedaled on the Venezuelan gang takeovers in Aurora, going back to his original claims that such reports are ‘conspiracy’ oriented.
Russia -
Logistics –
WSJ: US has told allies that Iran has sent short-range ballistic missiles to Russia. So far, hundreds sent. Sanctions being worked up by U.S., EU and partners
NOTE - these missiles are reportedly based on the older SCUD-2 design.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range and fair.
NOTE - Operationally, the dry season normally begins to transition to the wet fall season and the return to the Ukraine mud - which will severely limit offensive operations - especially those needing to move across open terrain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Yesterday Ukrainian air defense shot down 27 of 44 Shahed drones, some lost/crashed, some are unaccounted for.
Overnight Ukrainian air defense shot down 58 Shahed drones overnight
Ukrainian Azov brigade launched counterattack at New York axis, and retook part of the town.
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
Ukrainian special operation forces have destroyed a column of Russian military in Budky village of Kursk region.
Numerous other strikes hitting Russian pontoon bridges.
Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar -
Reports that Russia may have established a small bridge head across the canal to the north east of Chasiv Yar. Earlier this summer, Russia managed to get across the canal on the southeast margin of the town but were eventually pushed back.
Russian Territory –
Road Voronezh-Luhansk closed due to explosions at ammunition depot in Soldatskoye village of Ostrogozhsk district. This following a drone strike that set off massive secondary explosions that went on for hours. The village of Soldatskoye was also evacuated.
Outlook —
The Pokrovsk offensive may be on the verge of stalling out. Fresh Ukranian units - combat savvy ones at that, are launching local counter attacks . Russia may finally be seeing the impact of the loss of units stripped off and sent to Kursk.
Kursk is relatively stabilized with Ukraine still managing to out maneuver the Russian forces and gain local tactical advantages.
Russia’s stockpile of Shahed drones must be pretty substantial, as they’ve been throwing a lot of them at Ukraine lately. They’ve also become a headache for Belarus as a number of them have strayed into Belarus during each attack over the past week.
Watching for first clear use of the missiles Iran is reportedly sent to Russia. These missiles based off older SCUD designs are shorter range that more modern Russian missiles. Reality and accuracy are questionable. Original non-nuclear SCUDS were generally an areal weapon, not one with any accuracy. Target a city - ok, but smaller tactical targets - well you had to be lucky. I assume Iran has retrofitted the design to have more modern guidance systems.
Belarus -
At least 8 drones, 7 Shahed drones and 1 Supercam reconnaissance drone, have entered airspace of Belarus overnight. 1 drone reached as far as Navahrudak town of Hrodna region
OBSERVATION - I wonder to the cause of so many Shahed drones getting lost into Belarus. Is it poor target programming or more successful GPS jamming / spoofing. The loss of a Supercam suggests the latter.
ISRAEL –
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
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A document on Hamas head Yahya Sinwar’s computer revealed the terror group’s strategy for thwarting negotiations, tarnishing Israel’s image, wearing out the Jewish state militarily, and exerting psychological pressure through abuse of hostages.
The German newspaper Bild published an exclusive report on the document, which was verified by two independent sources.
The document indicated that one of Hamas’s main objectives was “exhausting” Israel’s army, and it doesn’t seek a quick end to the war regardless of the effect on Gazan civilians.
In addition, the terror group discusses ways to mistreat hostages and exert psychological pressure on their families and the media.
The document indicated that, even in the event of a ceasefire agreement, Hamas would continue to find ways to extend the war and re-arm.
“During the negotiations for the second phase (of the ceasefire, ed.), Hamas will allow the Red Cross to visit some of the prisoners as a gesture of goodwill and to convey messages to their relatives,” the document said; however, this concession was intended to increase pressure on Israel to extend the ceasefire and not resume military action.
The document recommended further complicating negotiations, regardless of the costs to Palestinian civilians. “Important clauses in the deal should be improved upon, even if negotiations continue over a longer period of time.”
The terror group will extend the conflict even though its “military capacity has been weakened.”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continued search and destroy operations and air/artillery strikes on Hamas groups.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Israeli army says it bombed a Hezbollah weapons depot in the town of Blida, south of Lebanon
Overnight, a barrage of five rockets was fired from Lebanon at the Safed area a short while ago, according to the Israeli army. Two Burkan rockets were included. The rockets struck open areas, the military adds. There are no injuries.
During the night the IDF attacked more than 15 Hezbollah launchers and military infrastructure in southern Lebanon; some of the launchers that were attacked were ready for immediate launch into the northern Israel.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syria: Reports that a truck vehicle was targeted with a precision airstrike earlier today near Al-Bukamal in northeast Syria. All indications are this was likely a drone strike against IRGC weapons movements.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israel has announced the Jenin operation is over after 10 days. Israeli army says it killed 14 militants, arrested more than 30 during the operation. Operations will resume should terror activity resume.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
U.S. Central Command: In the past 24 hours, U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) forces successfully destroyed one Iranian-backed Houthi uncrewed aerial vehicle and one support vehicle in a Houthi-controlled area of Yemen
——— FORECAST ————————-
Situation in Gaza remains dynamic in that an Israeli operation can spin up in a very short period. So far Israel is content to deal with Hamas et al by air strikes.
The trend for hezbollah is increasing baseline rocket launches towards Israel. We are now approaching an average of over 100 per day. On the flip side, Israel’s intel has been exceptional in providing time sensitive, actionable intel allowing IAF to hit launch sites with the rockets still in their launchers. Over night was the third occurrence in the past week. Of course, moving the rockets to the launch sites also opens up locating ammo depots, which Israel has obligingly been taking out as well.
Unconfirmed reports that Israel is in the final stages of preparations to enter S Lebanon are increasing. Fundamental point is that Israel cannot maintain a defensive posture and win against Hezbollah, that offense is the best defense. Many have been stating that this ground action has been in the plans and likely to kick off this fall. Action in Gaza has lowered to the extent that operations there would not excessively bleed resources for a Lebanon invasion.
A lot has to do with the US elections. Trump has expressed support to Israel, while harris (and biden) is a crypto-pro hamas supporter. The nearly one year war has impacted Israel’s economy with so many reservists called to duty, business are running short handed, and their families struggling. The drivers are for a sooner than later attack.
Iran remains the dormant volcano. Should they continue to delay, and Israel launches a Lebanese operation, they may be pushed into launching missile/drone attacks - at the risk of all the bad things Israel could do with just a few resources to them.
Iraq -
The United States and Iraq have reached an understanding on plans for the withdrawal of U.S.-led coalition forces from Iraq, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter.
The plan, which has been broadly agreed but requires a final go-ahead from both capitals and an announcement date, would see hundreds of troops leave by September 2025, with the remainder departing by the end of 2026, the sources said.
“We have an agreement, its now just a question of when to announce it,” a senior U.S. official said.
The U.S. and Iraq are also seeking to establish a new advisory relationship that could see some U.S. troops remain in Iraq after the drawdown.
The U.S. has approximately 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in neighboring Syria as part of the coalition formed in 2014 to combat Islamic State as it rampaged through the two countries.
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/u-s-iraq-troops/2024/09/06/id/1179344/
OBSERVATION - This will impact US/coalition bases in Syria as Iraq has been the support base for those anti ISIS operations. This may result in some serious changes in operations in Syria.
Misc of Note –
Alternative communications are critical in any disaster scenario. We rely too heavily upon the internet for info and comms that may well fail in any kind of situation - as well as loss of cell comms which rely upon an internet interface to some extent.
I break these requirements into two categories - passive and active comms.
Passive comms include standard, battery powered AM/FM radios for local news as well as short wave radios for glimpses of what is happening nationally and internationally. Timely local news can save your life.
Scanners used to be a biggie for passive comms, but police / fire have locally gone to more digital operations that are further encrypted.
Active comms include the tried and true CB radio, ham radio and the growing GMRS radio groups. Buried in this are the shorter range (and don’t believe their claims of long-range) little walkie talkies. CB’s with a good antenna at permitted power (4 watts) can reach 10 miles or more, those with side band can go farther.
Hams are multi band and capable of a lot of option due to the authorized high power. Local repeaters in the 2 meter band extend comms over a wide range. HF comms can reach 2500 miles or more.
Let me make one note here no Ham comms - they can double as a passive method for those who don’t have a license to operate It is not illegal to own or use them to listen to traffic, only illegal to transmit ( with an exception for am emergency life or death situation).
I’ve just passed my General License requirements and will be entering the HF realm in the next few months. I will not post my call sign here because those calls are searchable on the FCC website and would reveal too much about who I am.
Preparedness is more than beans, bullets, bugout and bandaids folks. Think your situation through and how you would stay in contact with your loved ones and support groups in the event of a disaster of any kind.
I wondered about that change. Guess the press is back to 'don't say his name because that might encourage others'... (don't say any killers name UNTIL we're sure he's a white male who's straight and whose parents are Trump supporters.
Prayers for your health ……
Had the fever hit for a second time overnight. The only other time I’ve experienced this was when i likely had wuhan in 2020. Doing better this morning, but moving kinda slow.
Economy- HIGH Threat - as of AUG 5, 2024
Another point on this past weeks jobs report - govt jobs once again dominated. The least productive sector.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Merchan sentencing of trump - September 18
Debates ???
ABC September 10th
NBC September 25
Vance/walz - Oct. 1
**** Remember, most polls are designed to shape opinion, not reflect it. ****
****Notably, Democrats historically have an edge in support in national polls due to the large strangleholds on registered voters in the largest blue states of California and New York that do not impact the Electoral College but can skew the popular vote and a national poll.****
I noted a new axiom because the NYT has come out with its first major national poll showing trump holding a 1 point lead among likely voters. Again, skewed by kalifornia and NY (among other major, predominantly urbanized states).
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden has taken the equivalent of 40 years worth of vacations (for the average joe don’t you know) in the 4 yrs in the WH.
Russia -
*****
Putin has shrugged off the Kursk operation, saying it does nothing to impact his more strategic goal to seize and control all of the Donbas.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s range and fair.
NOTE - Operationally, the dry season normally begins to transition to the wet fall season and the return to the Ukraine mud - which will severely limit offensive operations - especially those needing to move across open terrain.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 15 Shahed drones and a Kh-59 missile overnight
Warehouses with ammunition in the Voronezh region are still detonating. Several hundred NK ballistic KN-23 missiles were now believed to have been stored there.
The Ukrainian 53rd mechanized brigade managed to recaptured the centre of New-York after it was recently occupied by Russian forces. Unconfirmed reports are that the advance of Ukrainian troops in this sector continues
Ukraine Kursk Offensive-
No significant gains reported.
Pokrovsk axis (Formerly Ocheretyne) -
No significant gains reported
Outlook —
Some have noted that at the rate of land capture from this spring/summer Russian offensive, it would take 8 years for Russian to capture all of the remaining Donbas region. There are no evidences of any potential breakouts that would change that assessment. It is very unlikely that Russia has the resources for 8 more years in the meat grinder.
Continued grind along the fronts with nothing significant forseeable. It looks like the Russian missile/drone offensive is on the decline. The next surge may occur once iranian missiles are in country and dispersed to launching locations.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- large protests calling for a ceasefire at any cost in Tel Aviv.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
Tens of thousands filled the streets of Tel Aviv calling for Israel to concede to Hamas demands for the release of hostages and to end the war.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Continued search and destroy operations.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
More than 50 rockets were launched from Lebanon at the Galilee Panhandle and Kiryat Shmona area overnight, the Israeli army says. Some 20 rockets were fired at around 1 a.m. and 2:30 a.m., with the Israeli army reporting that most of the projectiles were intercepted by air defenses, although some some impacted Kiryat Shmona, causing damage. At around 5:30 a.m., a barrage of another 30 rockets were fired from Lebanon, according to the military, which says that some were intercepted and the remainder hit open areas.
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The Lebanese PM told Al-Jazeera that Israel had passed messages to the Lebanese government that in the event of a ceasefire in Gaza, Israel is NOT interested in also pursuing a ceasefire with Hezbollah. The secret negotiations that the Americans have been running have made zero progress, and Hezbollah is not interested in withdrawing from the border whatsoever.
Israel will have to move them back to the Litani River with a military operation, the timing of which is TBD.
***
Amid ongoing, daily attacks by Hezbollah against Israel, IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Herzi Halevi warned the terror group that the army is “preparing for offensive moves” inside Lebanon.
Halevi’s threatening statement came during his latest tour of the northern border on Israel’s Golan Heights. “The IDF is very focused on fighting Hezbollah. I think that the number of attacks in the last month, operatives killed, rockets destroyed, infrastructure destroyed, is very large,” Halevi said.
The IDF announced on Friday that over 50 airstrikes last week targeted Hezbollah buildings, infrastructure, weapon depots and rocket launchers in Lebanon.
———WEST BANK——————————-
A Jordanian terrorist entered Israel, opening fire and killing three people at the Allenby crossing into Israel. He was ‘neutralized’ by Jordanian (?) forces.
Israeli Army Radio: The army imposes a security cordon on the city of Jericho following the shooting attack at the Allenby crossing
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi claim the downing of another MQ-8 recon drone overnight. This would be the 8th (?) one lost in the past year.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Tempo of attacks/counter strikes between Hezbollah and Israel continue to increase. While an Israeli move into S Lebanon does not appear imminent, it is coming soon as Israel cannot sustain the current status quo tit for tat.
In Gaza, Israel continues to allow hamas to regather and are then quickly exterminated by airstrikes or ground raids.
Iran is still dormant, and may likely seek a terror assassination strike versus a direct military strike on Israel as the way to save face and get their revenge. But even on that aspect, they are appearing to have problems as international intel agencies are keep efforts at bay.
I can’t believe we are still playing around with the Houthi. We have the capability to bomb them back to the stone age and it should have been done months ago.
Turkey –
𝐓𝐮𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐲’𝐬 𝐄𝐫𝐝𝐨𝐠𝐚𝐧 𝐜𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐬 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐈𝐬𝐥𝐚𝐦𝐢𝐜 𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐚𝐠𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐬𝐭 𝐈𝐬𝐫𝐚𝐞𝐥
“The only step that will stop Israel is the alliance of Islamic countries,” Erdogan said at an event near Istanbul.
Erdogan recently improved ties with Egypt and Syria, who share a border with Israel.
Venezuela -
Opposition sources confirm to Caracas Chronicles that Edmundo González Urrutia was granted a safe passage by the Maduro regime and left the country after being granted asylum in Spain. He is currently flying to Madrid.
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Venezuelan security forces surrounded the Argentine embassy in the capital Caracas on Friday after two opposition members took refuge inside, according to posts by the opposition on social media.
The pair joined four other Venezuelan opposition figures who have taken refuge in the embassy this year.
OBSERVATION - There is a saying “you can’t vote your way out of tyranny”. Here is a prime example.