Threat Matrix 2024

Hamas et al trying to paint yesterday’s hostage rescue as a massive massacre. - An Al Jazeria reporter and a doctor were two that were holding hostages in their homes.

Globalism / Great Reset –

In a sharp rebuke to the leftist/globalists in power in the EU, the right upset the apple cart and gave devastating losses to the leftist parties. However, it wasn’t quite enough to overturn the centrist working majority in the European Parliament, the EU’s lower house, putting Ursula von der Leyen on track to stay president of the European Commission until 2029.

The elections didn’t fare well for leaders in EU countries.

The President of France, Emmanuel Macron has Dissolved the French Parliament with Early Elections being called for June 30th and July 7th, following a Significant Defeat by Left-Wing Parties and a Rise of the Far-Right across Europe in today European Union Elections. Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration nationalist party has just trounced Emmanuel Macron’s party in the French EU Elections, winning 34% of the vote. Macron’s party got 15% while Le Pen’s National Rally got 32.5%

Belgium’s globalist Prime Minister Alex De Croo resigns after losing to right-wing parties in EU elections. His party received just 5.8% of the votes.

Germany. The liberal Green Party lost 18% of young voters while the AFD (”far-right”) made a stunning 10% gain.

Anti-immigrant Malachy Steenson elected in Dublin:
“The revolution has begun!”

It looks like the Freedom Party of Geert Wilders has won 7 seats in the European Parliament today. Previously, they had never won a single seat.

Exit polls show that the right-wing Brothers of Italy are set to WIN with a record high number of votes in the EU election.

Flemish nationalist parties dominated general elections in Belgium on Sunday as Prime minister Alexander De Croo’s liberal party took a hit, with difficult coalition talks to form a new government now looming.
Despite polls predicting that the far-right, anti-immigration Vlaams Belang party would become the main political force in the country with 11.5 million inhabitants, the right-wing nationalist New Flemish Alliance (N-VA) retained its first spot, with an expected 22% of the votes, according to provisional results provided by the Interior ministry.

Spain’s center-right People’s Party (PP) came out on top in Sunday’s European election, garnering 22 seats out of the 61 allocated to the country, and dealing a blow to the Socialist-led government of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

OBSERVATION - Wins for nationalistic, anti-immigration, anti-globalist global warming elements on a country by country basis. The EU leadership will be under siege with the influx of the new right. Countries like France, inundated by migrants and soaring crime, will see more aggressive actions to deport them.

All in all, a significant push back to WEF inspired dreams of growing its power base and moving its agendas forward.

BTW - elections are on the horizon for Canada and the growing tsunami of dissatisfaction and anger of Canadians against the ruling govt may well usher in a change in power there as well.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

The Texas Republican Party has adopted two platform planks that call for legislators to assert state sovereignty, and to schedule a secession referendum in the next general election after November’s.
“This historic vote at the 2024 Republican Party of Texas Convention represents a substantial shift towards enhancing state sovereignty and exploring the potential for Texas to operate as an independent nation,” said the Texas Nationalist Movement (TNM) in a statement. “It reflects the growing sentiment among Texans for greater autonomy and the protection of our rights against federal overreach.”

OBSERVATION - The TX secession movement is alive and well and even growing with the continued fed govt intrusions that are affecting red states. Many see that a TX secession would lead other red states to join it, carving out much of the central part of the country out. ‘

Economy-

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) unveiled its final update for the Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards on Friday, trimming down some of the proposal’s excesses while keeping other aspects unchanged or very similar. However, the final rules are still likely to be onerous for consumers and to further the Biden administration’s push to massively increase the share of EVs on America’s roads in the coming decade, according to market experts who spoke with the Daily Caller News Foundation.

The American Fuel and Petrochemical Manufacturers’ Association, which has opposed the Biden administration’s EV agenda, characterized Friday’s rulemaking as still “another policy aimed at banning most new gas cars.”

“The final action announced Friday will require American manufacturers to reach a fleet-wide average of approximately 50 miles per gallon (mpg) by model year 2031, according to NHTSA. The initial proposal called for producers to reach a 58 mpg average by 2032, a goal so ambitious that Institute for Energy Research Senior Fellow Dan Kish described it at the time as a de facto “EV mandate.”

Additionally, NHTSA’s final CAFE update also will require manufacturers to increase the efficiency of their heavy-duty pickups and vans by 10% annually between model years 2030 and 2032, and then 8% from model year 2032 to model year 2035, according to the agency.

https://dailycaller.com/2024/06/07/biden-administration-nhtsa-cafe-rules-electric-vehicles/

OBSERVATION - The auto industry is a substantial component of our economy that directly impacts consumers both via personal autos, as well as thru the trucking industry components. The overall goal is clear - eliminate gas/diesel powered vehicles. Such would devastate the economy and living standards.

POLITICAL FRONT –

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

Expecting to hear early this week what is going to happen on jury misconduct in Trump’s verdict in the alleged payoff scenario. The info was released late Friday, so legal maneuvering should be kicking off soon.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre On Biden’s plagiarism accusations of Reagan’s D-Day speech:

“He didn’t plagiarize. He copied.”

***
Speaking at a Michigan Democratic Party fundraiser, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris said on Saturday that she mourns the Palestinians killed during Israel’s raid that freed four hostages.

“Before I begin, I just say a few words about the morning which I know weighs heavily on all of our hearts,” Harris said, per Fox News.

“On Oct. 7, Hamas committed a brutal massacre of 1,200 innocent people and abducted 250 hostages,” she said. “Thankfully, four of those hostages were reunited with their families tonight. And we mourn all of the innocent lives that have been lost in Gaza, including those tragically killed today.”

https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-35/

OBSERVATION - Facts on the ground would suggest that many of these ‘innocent’ Gazans were likely killed by Hamas responding to the rescue attempt and firing blindly into the suspected direction of the rescue team.
Disgusting that harris is morning the hostage takers.

Illegal Immigration –

Earlier today CBS polling expert Anthony Salvanto broke the news to Margaret Brennan on Face the Nation that 62% of Americans want all illegal aliens rounded up and deported.

Anthony Salvanto: “We tested that in a general way in principle. Would you support a new government program that would deport all people living in the U.S. illegally? And that finds majority favor. That finds six in 10. It’s strongest among folks who are MAGA. It’s strongest among Trump supporters, but also from some Democrats as well.”

Anthony Salvanto: Well, when you measure public sentiment on this or really just about any policy, you’re getting a sense of direction. You’re getting broad brushstrokes.
But those kinds of details, well, that’s often up to the legislatures and the courts later on. We tested even the idea of, should local law enforcement be involved in this? And a lot of folks do say yes. Again, the details of that, the specifics, you’re not going to pick that up in an aggregate public opinion.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/06/new-national-poll-finds-62-percent-americans-including/

OBSERVATION - The left has overplayed their hand in their open border - replacement policies. The masses aren’t happy, especially in dark blue regions of the country. This is perchance one of the reasons Trump’s support remains to hot is that he is on the right side of the issue.

North/South Korea –

South Korea and the United States were set to hold talks Monday in Seoul on better coordinating an allied nuclear response during a war with North Korea, amid anxiety over Pyongyang’s growing arsenal, Seoul officials said.
The third meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group (NCG) is designed to follow up on last year’s summit, during which the United States promised to give South Korea more insight into its nuclear planning for a conflict with the North.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/nuclear-talks-south-korea/2024/06/10/id/1168096/

OBSERVATION - There is growing potential for a nuclear arms race on the peninsula.

***
The U.S. and South Korea conducted joint bombing drills using a type of precision munition for the first time in about seven years, in a show of force after Seoul scrapped a 2018 deal with North Korea to reduce tensions at the border.

At least one US B1-B bomber and other fighter jets such as the F-35B joined South Korean jets for the drills Wednesday that dropped a JDAM bomb. JDAM stands for Joint Direct Attack Munition and it’s a tail kit that converts unguided bombs into accurate, weather-adverse bombs, according to the U.S. Air Force.

The last time JDAM was used in a joint drill was in 2017, South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense said in a statement. South Korean F-15Ks fighters conducted live-fire drills at the same time to show a joint defense posture against “any provocation by North Korea,” the ministry said.

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2024/06/us-south-korea-warplanes-put-on-show-of-force-for-kim-jong-un/#google_vignette

OBSERVATION - Part of a continuing and escalating show of force by SK to NK provocations.

***
Following NK flying balloons carrying human feces, SK has reactivated propaganda speakers aimed at NK, with broadcasts beginning again this morning.

Russia -

Ukraine might keep some of the F-16 fighter jets it is set to receive from its Western allies at foreign bases to protect them from Russian strikes, a senior Ukrainian military officer said Monday.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that Moscow could consider launching strikes at facilities in NATO countries if they host the warplanes used in Ukraine.

“If they are stationed at air bases outside the Ukrainian borders and used in combat, we will have to see how and where to strike the assets used in combat against us,” Putin said last year. “It poses a serious danger of NATO being further drawn into the conflict.”
In March, the Russian leader again warned Ukraine’s Western allies against providing air bases from where the F-16s could launch sorties against the Kremlin’s forces. Those bases would become a “legitimate target,” he said.
“F-16s are capable of carrying nuclear weapons, and we will also need to take that into account while organizing our combat operations,” Putin stated.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/ukraine-russia-war/2024/06/10/id/1168093/

Logistics –

Russian GLONASS is in trouble. The problem is a familiar one, too many GLONASS satellites are ending their service lives, usually seven years, and Roscosmos, the Russian space agency, does not have the money to replace all of the GLONASS satellites. The cash shortage means the program to build improved GLONASS satellites, like GLONASS-K, which is the first GLONASS satellite that is unpressurized and weighs much less at 750 kg while also having a longer service life of ten years. The current GLONASS-M weighs 1,450 kg and has a service life of seven years. Currently most of the 24 GLONASS satellites in service are past their seven year service lives and, as expected, operating erratically, and starting to fail.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90s and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Rumint. Incoming reports of Ukraine having sunk a large Russian ship (around 100 meter long) near Yeysk,

Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine struck a Russian landing ship in Sea of Azov. A group of Russian Navy ships sailed to Sea of Azov a couple of days ago.

Ukrainian warplanes have for the first time fired a weapon that struck a target inside Russia, a Ukrainian military source said to Sky News. He added that a “Russian command node” was hit today in the area of Bilhorod.

Follow up on yesterday’s report of the damage/destruction of a SU-57. Battle damage assessment (BDA) is that 2 of the 8 (ish) SU-57s were damaged.

Russian Ministry of Defense claims occupation of Staromayorske village.

Kharkiv Front -

Ammunition depot exploded in Rakitne district of Belgorod region, Russia

Head of Bilopilya community of Sumy region denies any presence of Russian troops in Ryzhivka village.

Ukrainian forces now control most of the town of Vovchansk. Russian morale is reportedly poor, as Chechen units are used as “anti-retreat” forces - stopping any Russian troops from retreating & enforcing discipline. Russians said to be building up their forces in this area

Crimean front —

Explosions were reported in several districts of occupied Crimea overnight, associated with an overnight missile attack on Crimea on June 10. Two S-300 complexes and four radars were damaged. The attack involved at least 10 ATACMS missiles, none of which were intercepted.

Russian Territory –

Ukraine drones attacked a tug and barge in the Taganrog Bay. The attack was carried out on the tug Engineer Smirnov and the barge Section-179 on the evening of June 8

Outlook —

Very active but on the surface appears to be disjointed so I want to connect some dots.

First - Russian vessels now threatened in the Sea of Azov. Russia pulled many vessels out of Crimea and into the area to avoid Ukrainian attacks. Unconfirmed reports suggest that Ukraine seaborne drones conducted the attacks, meaning that they were able to sneak under thru the Kerch Straits to attack targets. This will stress Russian resupply efforts currently ferrying supplies across the Sea.

Secondly, Ukraine’s missile strikes throughout Crimea and even the Belgorod region. Ukraine is systematically blinding Russia’s air defense radar network and killing their backbone air defense systems - the S300 and S400 missile batteries. This effort has borne fruit in allowing Ukraine to strike deeper into Russia with their simple drones. But a second, more direct result is allowing Ukraine fighter bombers to more directly attack Russian forces along the front and now deeper into Russia proper. This effort will be very important late this year when F-16s come into play for Ukraine. These air defense systems are virtually non-replaceable because Russia doesn’t have the means to repair them and replacement systems are spread across western Russia attempting to protect key facilities from Ukraine drone attacks.

On the ground, unconfirmed reports that Ukraine is taking the initiative away from Russia in the Kharkiv region. Russia may be attempting to strike towards Sumy to relieve some of the pressure, but their incursion into Kharkiv has served warning to Ukraine who is better prepared on the Sumy front to confront Russia forces.

Ukraine defenses further south continue to hold and inflict high losses on Russian assaults. These assaults have essentially ceased to be coordinated operations and have turned into dashes by smaller units (company and smaller) across disputed regions in order to attempt to plant Russian ground troops in positions from where they can then launch attacks against Ukrainian defensive positions. This is where it is become increasingly apparent that the loss of armored vehicles by Russia is hurting the worst. More and more, Russia is using motorcycles, ATVs etc in the mad dash - and getting creamed in the process. There are further reports that Russian artillery support is having difficulties. Combination of losses of tubes and interdicted ammo supplies have caused Russia to increasingly rely on indirect fire from tanks and APCs like the BMP-3.

The locally famous Russia ‘turtle’ tanks numbers have diminished on the front lines, as Ukraine has quickly assessed their vulnerabilities and have neutralized the initial advantages of the monstrosities.

Expect continued to continue to be fierce in the Ocheretyne and Chasiv Yar regions.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot announce their withdrawal from the Israeli war government.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***
Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot announce their withdrawal from the Israeli war government. Gantz urges Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to resign from Netanyahu’s government. Gantz further called on party leaders to hold elections to form a national unity government

***
Biden Administration has discussed potentially negotiating unilateral deal with Hamas to free 5 U.S. hostages

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Intense fighting continues in Central and Southern (Rafah) Gaza.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Hezbollah fired ATGM/mortar shell launches towards Mount Dov area and other areas the border region with Israel.

Unconfirmed reports that Hezbollah utilized more sophisticated air defense missiles against IAF air craft over the weekend, allegedly forcing them to withdraw.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Israeli security forces arrested more than 20 Palestinians from across the West Bank overnight.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Iranian-backed Houthis launched four anti-ship ballistic missiles (ASBM) from Houthi controlled areas of Yemen over the Red Sea. There were no injuries or damage reported by U.S., coalition, or commercial ships.

Additionally, U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) forces successfully destroyed four UASs and two ASBMs in Houthi controlled areas of Yemen. USCENTCOM forces also successfully destroyed one UAS launched from a Houthi controlled area of Yemen into the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Separately, USCENTCOM forces successfully destroyed a Houthi patrol boat in the Red Sea.

AP News cites a report from private security firm Ambrey, which said the Antigua and Barbuda-flagged cargo ship in the Gulf of Aden was struck by a missile on its forward station, sparking a fire. A second missile missed the vessel, and rebels “on board small boats in the vicinity opened fire on the ship during the incident,” the security firm said, adding no crew on the vessel was hurt in the attack

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Massive 50,000+ pro Israeli march in Toronto Canada over the weekend. Pro-hamas elements attempted to disrupt it, but were dealt with quickly by law enforcement.

——— FORECAST ————————-

The US-led coup to overthrow Netanyahu is fully underway, with the Gantz resignation. Washington has been courting Gantz for the past three plus years now in an effort to keep Netanyahu’s and DC’s efforts have intensified during the Gaza war. This is interference in Israel’s government in a most menacing manner possible, under cutting the govt in the middle of a war.

It is very clear, biden doesn’t want Israel to be successful in Gaza, nor allow the operation against Hezbollah to begin. The behind the scenes biden attempts to keep Israel from hitting Iran further implicate the regime’s anti-Israeli bent.

His departure still leaves Netanyahu’s nationalist-religious coalition in control of parliament with a 64-seat majority in the 120 seat Knesset.
Gantz, a former armed forces chief and defense minister, heads the centrist National Unity party which holds eight seats.

The resignation of Gantz may cause further attempts to split up not only the govt but the Israeli people in general, buy stirring up strife and discontent among the left elements.

In spite of biden’s efforts, Rafah will continue to be dealt with as well as other Hamas strong points that redevelop in the rest of Gaza.

Evidence on ongoing planning for the operation against Hezbollah both on the military side as well as mental preparation / propaganda of the Israeli people. Indicators suggest that an attack is not imminent, but increasingly probable beginning in the August timeframe.

Houthi attempting to regain significance in the Red Sea region. May well garner more allied air strikes on associated facilities in Yemen.

Tremendous work on the situation around the world, Godzilla. Thank you.

Facts on the ground would suggest that many of these ‘innocent’ Gazans were likely killed by Hamas responding to the rescue attempt and firing blindly into the suspected direction of the rescue team. Disgusting that harris is mourning the hostage takers.

NSA Sullivan's backing similar lies. Harris and the MSM quote the Hamas 'death' numbers too as if Hamas was a credible source. And to add insult to injury President Sniffer wants to negotiate for American hostages cutting Netanyahu out of that process. Will Kerry bring pallets of cash for the deal? Disgusting.

A heads up. My posting will be very sporadic the rest of this month as I’ll be on the road much of the next three weeks. I’ll try to get some summaries in when I’m back at home base.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Leftist/globalists struggling to make plans to counter newly elected conservative / nationalistic parties elected over the weekend across Europe.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Pro hamas and other islamic jihadists blocked the entrance to a NY theater where a memorial to the Oct 7 massacre victims was present. Protestors threatened to burn the building down wiith Jews inside of it. NYPD did very little to intervene.

OBSERVATION - The very violent jihadists / hamas supporters are rising to the surface more and more. Though this was a relatively small protest, it is being repeated many times of late. Hatred of Israel will be one of the major “Floyd” elements of election riots coming this November and beyond. Antifa will join in just to break and burn things up. Other leftist elements may get sidelined - such as the lgbt cult - because the jihadist elements will no longer need them as ‘allies’, reverting to islamic anti gay doctrines and excluding them.

Increasing components of a religious war developing - versus the Floyd ‘race’ wars of 2020.

Economy-

Median mortgage payments hit a new high of $2894 per month in May. This is an increase of 14% from 2023, 23% 2022 and 78% from 2021.

POLITICAL FRONT –

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

New video footage provided to House Republicans reveals then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) admitting responsibility for not having the National Guard protect the Capitol building ahead of protests on January 6, 2021.

The footage, Politico notes, was “was shown in a video shot by the former speaker’s daughter, documentarian Alexandra Pelosi, and recently provided to congressional investigators by HBO.” It was never aired — nor did Alexandra Pelosi provide it to the January 6 Committee when it was supposedly investigating the Capitol riot.

The January 6 Committee also never subpoenaed Speaker Pelosi or her daughter for documents about the riot.

The video substantiates claims by former President Donald Trump that Pelosi was responsible for failing to prepare sufficient security ahead of the protest. Trump offered the National Guard in the days before the “Stop the Steal” rally 6, but was refused.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/06/10/watch-unaired-video-shows-nancy-pelosi-admitting-responsibility-for-not-having-national-guard-at-capitol/

OBSERVATION - Pelosi scrambled to get on to MSM outlets to ‘correct’ the video, but the damage has been done.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Biden’s approval rating has sunk to its lowest-ever — a dismal 37.4% — with disapproval at a troubling 56.6, according to tracker and opinion poll analyzer Five Thirty Eight.
The polling shows signs of dwindling support among nonwhite voters, while progressives have also hammered the White House over its response to Israel’s handling of the war in Gaza in the aftermath of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, Business Insider reported.
Biden’s approval began the slide after the United States’ tumultuous withdrawal from Afghanistan and has never recovered.

OBSERVATION - These numbers, as well as other polls, reportedly have caused democrats to go into full freak out mode. It makes their vote stealing efforts much steeper as the country slips into Electoral and probably total vote tsnumani for Trump, knowing full well that his long tails will likely damage their numbers in the House and Senate too.

Illegal Immigration –

Louisiana House has passed a bill that would allow state and local law enforcement to arrest immigrants who have entered the United States illegally.

***
Fox News obtained an internal Border Patrol memo. It instructs agents in the San Diego sector to release single adults from the Eastern Hemisphere. This order applied to all illegals except for those from six countries. Those would be classified as hard or very hard to remove.
The internal memo was sent out after Biden signed the executive action.

Details in the memo, first reported by the Washington Examiner’s Anna Giaritelli, instructs agents that all single adults from the Eastern Hemisphere are to be processed via “NTA/OR,” which means Notice to Appear/released on Own Recognizance, except for migrants from Russia, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Moldova, and Kyrgyzstan – which are “mandatory referral” countries.

There are more than 100 countries in the Eastern Hemisphere, meaning that despite the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and President Biden’s threats of consequences and promises to remove migrants who cross illegally under the new executive order, the overwhelming majority of the migrants in the San Diego sector are being released into the U.S.

https://hotair.com/karen-townsend/2024/06/10/internal-memo-at-dhs-orders-san-diego-border-patrol-to-release-single-adults-n3789956

OBSERVATION - With these revelations, biden has just dug himself deeper into a hole on immigration. Immigration is one of the highest concerns for voters and he faces very low approval numbers on it.

***
The Biden administration is considering a plan to protect from deportation undocumented immigrants who are the spouses of U.S. citizens and give them access to work permits, according to two sources familiar with the discussions.
The sources stressed that the proposal was not final and the timing was fluid. The program, known as “parole in place,” would also make it easier for some undocumented immigrants to get a green card and a path to U.S. citizenship. One of the sources said lawmakers on Capitol Hill had been briefed on the proposal.

A White House spokesperson declined to comment on details.

OBSERVATION - These efforts are designed to thwart as much as possible Trumps declaration of mass deportations by allowing these illegals to tie up their deportations in court, bogging the system down.

North/South Korea –

South Korea’s military Monday said it is detecting signs North Korea is installing its own loudspeakers along their heavily armed border, a day after the South blared anti-Pyongyang propaganda broadcasts over its speakers for the first time in years as the rivals engage in a Cold War-style psychological warfare.
The South’s resumption of its loudspeaker broadcasts on Sunday was in retaliation for the North sending over 1,000 balloons filled with trash and manure over the last couple of weeks.

Russia -

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Several Russian warships will arrive in Cuba on June 12, the RIA news agency cited Russian navy commander Alexander Moiseyev as saying Tuesday.
Four Russian ships, including a nuclear-powered submarine, will arrive for “historically friendly relations” between both nations and as tensions escalate over Western military support for Ukraine in its war with Russia, Cuban officials said last week.

Cuba’s foreign ministry said none of them will carry any nuclear weapons and assuring their presence “does not represent a threat to the region.”

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/cuba-russia-navy/2024/06/11/id/1168253/

OBSERVATION - This flotilla does have the potential of carrying nuclear tipped missiles.

Kerch Bridge update –

Russia has reportedly resumed fuel transportation to the Russian-occupied Crimea, south Ukraine, via a railway bridge across the Kerch Strait. With Ukraine having struck 2 of the roll-on roll-off ship ferries & the ferry dock in Crimea, Russia’s forced to again use its illegal Crimea bridge to bring in military fuel, hardware & supplies.

This move is seen as an act of increasing desperation by Russia to keep its forces in Crimea and southern to southeastern Ukraine supplied.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90s and fair.

RUMINT –
There are rumors that families of Russian Air Defense soldiers are being told to leave Crimea as Ukraine steps up targeting facilities and systems.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Explosions from unspecified Russian missiles was reported in Dnipro city.

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Myasozharivka(Artemivka) village of Luhansk region and Tymkivka village of Kharkiv region.
Russian forces continue attacks along a front stretching from Ocheretyne south to Vuhledar.

Ukraine denies Russian control over Ivanivske village, located east southeast of Chasiv Yar.

Outlook —

Russian offensive is at its high water mark and unless it has substantial reserves floating around out there, they are rapidly losing the ability to press forward in a dominating manner the did at the start of operations. It further seems that Russia has spread its forces across a number of fronts, (such as Kharkiv and now potentially Sumy) and not concentrating to force a more significant breakout.

Ukraine has been very successful in several key, strategic elements that is clearly beginning to show fruit. First is driving the Black Sea Fleet out of the Black Sea - negating the missile carriers and striking the amphibious ships being used to shuttle supplies.

Second is the continued successful attacks on Russian air defense assets such as early warning radars, airborne radar systems, S300 and S400 batteries. Almost daily, even the simplest of Ukraine drones are reported penetrating hundreds of kilometers into Russia to strike their targets. Loss of ADA by Russia is also permitting Ukraine to be more aggressive with the limited air power they have to successfully target key command and logistical targets.

The success in these two areas goes to support Ukrainian ground defense efforts, now rearmed by western countries. I see only limited counter offensives in the future - no major Ukraine offensives over the summer.

I also think that their success in cutting off the roll-on roll-off ship ferries & the ferry dock in Crimea and forcing Russia to rely more on the Kerch Bridge will result in the bridge finally be taken totally off line, making life very hard for Russian forces in Crimea. Ukraine would still have a stiff fight to reach Crimea, but the impact will be signifiant - forcing Russian planners between a rock and a hard place with its gem Crimea being threatened on one hand and sustaining operations in eastern Ukraine to hold territory gained on the other.

Europe / NATO General –

Anarchists and leftists hit the streets of Paris overnight, targeting those thought to be their political opponents following the conservative / right victories in Sunday’s EU elections.

OBSERVATION - Let this be a warning to the US as well after a trump victory in November.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- UNSC approved US resolution calling for a cease fire.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***
The U.N. Security Council on Monday approved its first resolution endorsing a cease-fire plan aimed at ending the eight-month Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
The vote on the U.S.-sponsored resolution was 14-0, with Russia abstaining.
The resolution welcomes a cease-fire proposal announced by President Joe Biden that the United States says Israel has accepted. It calls on Hamas, which initially said it viewed the proposal “positively,” to accept the three-phase plan.

Hamas is said to have accepted an U.N. Security Council ceasefire resolution and is ready to negotiate over the details, senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters on Tuesday, adding that it was up to Washington to ensure that Israel abides by it.

US State Department: Secretary Blinken discussed with the Israeli Defense Minister the proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza

***
A Direct Polls survey released on Monday by Israel’s Channel 14 shows that the Likud Party gained a slight tailwind following National Unity Party leader Benny Gantz’s announcement that he was quitting the emergency unity government.
If elections were held today, the Likud Party with Benjamin Netanyahu at its head would win a months-long high of 59 Knesset seats, up one from last week’s Direct Polls survey.
Meanwhile, the center-left bloc weakened, falling to 51 mandates from 53 in the last poll.

The survey asked which leader was best suited to serve as prime minister: Netanyahu or Gantz. Forty-seven percent of the respondents picked Netanyahu compared to 31% for Gantz. Twenty-two percent said neither was suitable.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/poll-netanyahu-gantz/2024/06/11/id/1168254/

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Continuing clashes between Hamas et al and the Israeli army penetrating the center of the city of Rafah

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

A barrage of some 50 rockets were launched from Lebanon at the central Golan Heights a short while ago, the military says. Air defenses shot down several of the rockets, while the rest impacted open areas, the Israeli army adds

During the night, Israeli Air Force fighter jets attacked a military compound of Unit 4400, the logistical reinforcement unit of the terrorist organization Hezbollah, which serves as a factor in transporting weapons to and within Lebanon. In the compound, two centers located in the area of Baalbak in deep Lebanon were attacked. The Israeli airstrikes in the Hermel District of northeastern Lebanon, appear to be in response to numerous Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel over the past day, and the terror group downing an Israeli army drone.

——— FORECAST ————————-

The biden initiative is a nothing burger but concessions to Hamas IMHO. Hamas has already rejected similar in the past and is only now claiming ‘interest’ because of the PR blitz from the Israeli hostage rescue. They see it as a way to deter/delay Israeli operations and use the US as a weapon against Israel.

Gantz’s departure from the war govt has had no immediate positive results for him and his party, in fact may have hurt it. As stated before, this whole thing is an effort to get Netanyahu removed from leadership of the country - plain and simple.

The levels and nature of the combat in Gaza is likely to continue relatively unchanged, with Israel continuing to conduct search and destroy operations with sporadic ‘raids’ to hit Hamas when it tries to reconstitute forces.

I also see pro-hamas ‘protests’ in other countries growing more violent, eschpeially as more pro-Israeli govts take charge in the coming months. Could get very ugly.

Misc of Note –

Being out much of the remainder of this month doesn’t mean that I personally won’t be keeping tabs on the situation, only that I will not be able to have the time or the ability to generate these posts. However, I will be in internet challenged areas which will hamper my own personal efforts.

There are so many hots spots so to speak that require constant monitoring.

- biden law fare against trump

- progress of the Gaza war

- increasing economic instability and potential indicators of a recession or other disaster, such as stagflation or even hyperinflation.

- growth and development of pro-hamas / antifa riot plans for this summer into the elections and beyond

- growing threat from illegals from countries hostile to the US abetting protests, or even committing acts of terror or gross crime in general.

- Out of control escalation of the war in Ukraine, China against Taiwan or Philippines, or Iran stepping back into the Gaza conflict.
There are other flash points embedded in these as well. How close to the edge we are getting will only become clearer over the next days and months.

A heads up. My posting will be very sporadic the rest of this month as I’ll be on the road much of the next three weeks. I’ll try to get some summaries in when I’m back at home base.

Globalism / Great Reset –

Leftist/globalists struggling to make plans to counter newly elected conservative / nationalistic parties elected over the weekend across Europe.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

Pro hamas and other islamic jihadists blocked the entrance to a NY theater where a memorial to the Oct 7 massacre victims was present. Protestors threatened to burn the building down wiith Jews inside of it. NYPD did very little to intervene.

OBSERVATION - The very violent jihadists / hamas supporters are rising to the surface more and more. Though this was a relatively small protest, it is being repeated many times of late. Hatred of Israel will be one of the major “Floyd” elements of election riots coming this November and beyond. Antifa will join in just to break and burn things up. Other leftist elements may get sidelined - such as the lgbt cult - because the jihadist elements will no longer need them as ‘allies’, reverting to islamic anti gay doctrines and excluding them.

Increasing components of a religious war developing - versus the Floyd ‘race’ wars of 2020.

Economy-

Median mortgage payments hit a new high of $2894 per month in May. This is an increase of 14% from 2023, 23% 2022 and 78% from 2021.

POLITICAL FRONT –

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

New video footage provided to House Republicans reveals then-Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) admitting responsibility for not having the National Guard protect the Capitol building ahead of protests on January 6, 2021.

The footage, Politico notes, was “was shown in a video shot by the former speaker’s daughter, documentarian Alexandra Pelosi, and recently provided to congressional investigators by HBO.” It was never aired — nor did Alexandra Pelosi provide it to the January 6 Committee when it was supposedly investigating the Capitol riot.

The January 6 Committee also never subpoenaed Speaker Pelosi or her daughter for documents about the riot.

The video substantiates claims by former President Donald Trump that Pelosi was responsible for failing to prepare sufficient security ahead of the protest. Trump offered the National Guard in the days before the “Stop the Steal” rally 6, but was refused.

https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/06/10/watch-unaired-video-shows-nancy-pelosi-admitting-responsibility-for-not-having-national-guard-at-capitol/

OBSERVATION - Pelosi scrambled to get on to MSM outlets to ‘correct’ the video, but the damage has been done.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Biden’s approval rating has sunk to its lowest-ever — a dismal 37.4% — with disapproval at a troubling 56.6, according to tracker and opinion poll analyzer Five Thirty Eight.
The polling shows signs of dwindling support among nonwhite voters, while progressives have also hammered the White House over its response to Israel’s handling of the war in Gaza in the aftermath of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, Business Insider reported.
Biden’s approval began the slide after the United States’ tumultuous withdrawal from Afghanistan and has never recovered.

OBSERVATION - These numbers, as well as other polls, reportedly have caused democrats to go into full freak out mode. It makes their vote stealing efforts much steeper as the country slips into Electoral and probably total vote tsnumani for Trump, knowing full well that his long tails will likely damage their numbers in the House and Senate too.

Illegal Immigration –

Louisiana House has passed a bill that would allow state and local law enforcement to arrest immigrants who have entered the United States illegally.

***
Fox News obtained an internal Border Patrol memo. It instructs agents in the San Diego sector to release single adults from the Eastern Hemisphere. This order applied to all illegals except for those from six countries. Those would be classified as hard or very hard to remove.
The internal memo was sent out after Biden signed the executive action.

Details in the memo, first reported by the Washington Examiner’s Anna Giaritelli, instructs agents that all single adults from the Eastern Hemisphere are to be processed via “NTA/OR,” which means Notice to Appear/released on Own Recognizance, except for migrants from Russia, Georgia, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Moldova, and Kyrgyzstan – which are “mandatory referral” countries.

There are more than 100 countries in the Eastern Hemisphere, meaning that despite the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and President Biden’s threats of consequences and promises to remove migrants who cross illegally under the new executive order, the overwhelming majority of the migrants in the San Diego sector are being released into the U.S.

https://hotair.com/karen-townsend/2024/06/10/internal-memo-at-dhs-orders-san-diego-border-patrol-to-release-single-adults-n3789956

OBSERVATION - With these revelations, biden has just dug himself deeper into a hole on immigration. Immigration is one of the highest concerns for voters and he faces very low approval numbers on it.

***
The Biden administration is considering a plan to protect from deportation undocumented immigrants who are the spouses of U.S. citizens and give them access to work permits, according to two sources familiar with the discussions.
The sources stressed that the proposal was not final and the timing was fluid. The program, known as “parole in place,” would also make it easier for some undocumented immigrants to get a green card and a path to U.S. citizenship. One of the sources said lawmakers on Capitol Hill had been briefed on the proposal.

A White House spokesperson declined to comment on details.

OBSERVATION - These efforts are designed to thwart as much as possible Trumps declaration of mass deportations by allowing these illegals to tie up their deportations in court, bogging the system down.

North/South Korea –

South Korea’s military Monday said it is detecting signs North Korea is installing its own loudspeakers along their heavily armed border, a day after the South blared anti-Pyongyang propaganda broadcasts over its speakers for the first time in years as the rivals engage in a Cold War-style psychological warfare.
The South’s resumption of its loudspeaker broadcasts on Sunday was in retaliation for the North sending over 1,000 balloons filled with trash and manure over the last couple of weeks.

Russia -

NUCLEAR THREATS –

Several Russian warships will arrive in Cuba on June 12, the RIA news agency cited Russian navy commander Alexander Moiseyev as saying Tuesday.
Four Russian ships, including a nuclear-powered submarine, will arrive for “historically friendly relations” between both nations and as tensions escalate over Western military support for Ukraine in its war with Russia, Cuban officials said last week.

Cuba’s foreign ministry said none of them will carry any nuclear weapons and assuring their presence “does not represent a threat to the region.”

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/cuba-russia-navy/2024/06/11/id/1168253/

OBSERVATION - This flotilla does have the potential of carrying nuclear tipped missiles.

Kerch Bridge update –

Russia has reportedly resumed fuel transportation to the Russian-occupied Crimea, south Ukraine, via a railway bridge across the Kerch Strait. With Ukraine having struck 2 of the roll-on roll-off ship ferries & the ferry dock in Crimea, Russia’s forced to again use its illegal Crimea bridge to bring in military fuel, hardware & supplies.

This move is seen as an act of increasing desperation by Russia to keep its forces in Crimea and southern to southeastern Ukraine supplied.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90s and fair.

RUMINT –
There are rumors that families of Russian Air Defense soldiers are being told to leave Crimea as Ukraine steps up targeting facilities and systems.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Explosions from unspecified Russian missiles was reported in Dnipro city.

Russian Ministry of Defense claims full occupation of Myasozharivka(Artemivka) village of Luhansk region and Tymkivka village of Kharkiv region.
Russian forces continue attacks along a front stretching from Ocheretyne south to Vuhledar.

Ukraine denies Russian control over Ivanivske village, located east southeast of Chasiv Yar.

Outlook —

Russian offensive is at its high water mark and unless it has substantial reserves floating around out there, they are rapidly losing the ability to press forward in a dominating manner the did at the start of operations. It further seems that Russia has spread its forces across a number of fronts, (such as Kharkiv and now potentially Sumy) and not concentrating to force a more significant breakout.

Ukraine has been very successful in several key, strategic elements that is clearly beginning to show fruit. First is driving the Black Sea Fleet out of the Black Sea - negating the missile carriers and striking the amphibious ships being used to shuttle supplies.

Second is the continued successful attacks on Russian air defense assets such as early warning radars, airborne radar systems, S300 and S400 batteries. Almost daily, even the simplest of Ukraine drones are reported penetrating hundreds of kilometers into Russia to strike their targets. Loss of ADA by Russia is also permitting Ukraine to be more aggressive with the limited air power they have to successfully target key command and logistical targets.

The success in these two areas goes to support Ukrainian ground defense efforts, now rearmed by western countries. I see only limited counter offensives in the future - no major Ukraine offensives over the summer.

I also think that their success in cutting off the roll-on roll-off ship ferries & the ferry dock in Crimea and forcing Russia to rely more on the Kerch Bridge will result in the bridge finally be taken totally off line, making life very hard for Russian forces in Crimea. Ukraine would still have a stiff fight to reach Crimea, but the impact will be signifiant - forcing Russian planners between a rock and a hard place with its gem Crimea being threatened on one hand and sustaining operations in eastern Ukraine to hold territory gained on the other.

Europe / NATO General –

Anarchists and leftists hit the streets of Paris overnight, targeting those thought to be their political opponents following the conservative / right victories in Sunday’s EU elections.

OBSERVATION - Let this be a warning to the US as well after a trump victory in November.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- UNSC approved US resolution calling for a cease fire.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***
The U.N. Security Council on Monday approved its first resolution endorsing a cease-fire plan aimed at ending the eight-month Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
The vote on the U.S.-sponsored resolution was 14-0, with Russia abstaining.
The resolution welcomes a cease-fire proposal announced by President Joe Biden that the United States says Israel has accepted. It calls on Hamas, which initially said it viewed the proposal “positively,” to accept the three-phase plan.

Hamas is said to have accepted an U.N. Security Council ceasefire resolution and is ready to negotiate over the details, senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri told Reuters on Tuesday, adding that it was up to Washington to ensure that Israel abides by it.

US State Department: Secretary Blinken discussed with the Israeli Defense Minister the proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza

***
A Direct Polls survey released on Monday by Israel’s Channel 14 shows that the Likud Party gained a slight tailwind following National Unity Party leader Benny Gantz’s announcement that he was quitting the emergency unity government.
If elections were held today, the Likud Party with Benjamin Netanyahu at its head would win a months-long high of 59 Knesset seats, up one from last week’s Direct Polls survey.
Meanwhile, the center-left bloc weakened, falling to 51 mandates from 53 in the last poll.

The survey asked which leader was best suited to serve as prime minister: Netanyahu or Gantz. Forty-seven percent of the respondents picked Netanyahu compared to 31% for Gantz. Twenty-two percent said neither was suitable.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/poll-netanyahu-gantz/2024/06/11/id/1168254/

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Continuing clashes between Hamas et al and the Israeli army penetrating the center of the city of Rafah

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

A barrage of some 50 rockets were launched from Lebanon at the central Golan Heights a short while ago, the military says. Air defenses shot down several of the rockets, while the rest impacted open areas, the Israeli army adds

During the night, Israeli Air Force fighter jets attacked a military compound of Unit 4400, the logistical reinforcement unit of the terrorist organization Hezbollah, which serves as a factor in transporting weapons to and within Lebanon. In the compound, two centers located in the area of Baalbak in deep Lebanon were attacked. The Israeli airstrikes in the Hermel District of northeastern Lebanon, appear to be in response to numerous Hezbollah attacks on northern Israel over the past day, and the terror group downing an Israeli army drone.

——— FORECAST ————————-

The biden initiative is a nothing burger but concessions to Hamas IMHO. Hamas has already rejected similar in the past and is only now claiming ‘interest’ because of the PR blitz from the Israeli hostage rescue. They see it as a way to deter/delay Israeli operations and use the US as a weapon against Israel.

Gantz’s departure from the war govt has had no immediate positive results for him and his party, in fact may have hurt it. As stated before, this whole thing is an effort to get Netanyahu removed from leadership of the country - plain and simple.

The levels and nature of the combat in Gaza is likely to continue relatively unchanged, with Israel continuing to conduct search and destroy operations with sporadic ‘raids’ to hit Hamas when it tries to reconstitute forces.

I also see pro-hamas ‘protests’ in other countries growing more violent, eschpeially as more pro-Israeli govts take charge in the coming months. Could get very ugly.

Misc of Note –

Being out much of the remainder of this month doesn’t mean that I personally won’t be keeping tabs on the situation, only that I will not be able to have the time or the ability to generate these posts. However, I will be in internet challenged areas which will hamper my own personal efforts.

There are so many hots spots so to speak that require constant monitoring.

- biden law fare against trump

- progress of the Gaza war

- increasing economic instability and potential indicators of a recession or other disaster, such as stagflation or even hyperinflation.

- growth and development of pro-hamas / antifa riot plans for this summer into the elections and beyond

- growing threat from illegals from countries hostile to the US abetting protests, or even committing acts of terror or gross crime in general.

- Out of control escalation of the war in Ukraine, China against Taiwan or Philippines, or Iran stepping back into the Gaza conflict.
There are other flash points embedded in these as well. How close to the edge we are getting will only become clearer over the next days and months.

Enjoy your travels.

Back for a few days before out again. Kinda a summary of some of the key things I was able to catch while in the hills. The next couple of days will be more detailed before I head to the woods again.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
JUN 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.

Word is going out fast for another big march by pro-hamas and supporting elements on Washington in order to disrupt Netanyahu’s address of congress. The ring around the WH was big and this will likely to be huge - and many many times more violent.

Economy-

Inflation was at least three percent for the 38th straight month in May and has now been at or above that mark, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Wednesday.

In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 3.3% from 12 months earlier and unchanged, on a seasonally-adjusted basis from April. The last time CPI increased less than three percent was in March of 2021 (2.6%).
At 3.3%, inflation is also more than the 1.4% growth registered when former President Donald Trump left office in January of 2021 and December of 2020.
In May of this year, the seasonally-adjusted, month-to-month increase in the so-called “core” CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% from April and 3.4% from the increase in April of 2023.

***
Saudi Arabia has kicked the petrodollar to the curb, accepting other currencies for oil purchases.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

US House of Representatives passes bill automatically registering men aged 18 to 26 for selective service, 217 to 199
Added to include women - yes, even those “identifying” as a woman.

POLITICAL FRONT –

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

If one is to believe the MSM reports of presidential polls, biden’s support in general and from minorities is crumbling faster than a sand castle at high tide. Biden’s behavior at the recent fundraiser and G7 are not helping the perception any.

***
Democrats pushing the narrative that crime has dropped by over 25% under biden. What they don’t tell you is that the major crime centers - democrat run cities - are no longer reporting crime data to the FBI. To make it worse for democrats - the American people KNOW better and are rejecting the false message.

Biden / Harris Watch –

President Biden appeared to freeze up on stage and had to be led off by Barack Obama at the conclusion of a star-studded campaign fundraiser in Los Angeles Saturday night.

The awkward moment took place after Biden and his predecessor sat for a 45-minute interview with late-night host Jimmy Kimmel at the Peacock Theater.
As the men stood for applause, Biden’s gaze seemed to become fixed on the crowd for a full 10 seconds until former President Barack Obama took his wrist and led him offstage.

***
World leaders at the G7 in Italy last week reportedly expressed concern that President Biden is ‘losing focus’ and appearing ‘tired.’

Illegal Immigration –

According to Customs and Border Protection data, roughly, 30,000 Venezuelans crossed the U.S. border last year and 800,000 have tried to enter the country since 2021. The amount of illegal Venezuelans who have successfully crossed the southern border went from 50,500 in fiscal year 2021 to 334,900 in fiscal year 2023. Turns out many of these are associated with the deadly Tren de Aragua gang.

The gang is known for forcing illegal Venezuelan immigrants into sex slavery to repay smugglers who helped them cross over the border and into the U.S. illegally without detection.

Last month, Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) busted a sex trafficking scheme in Louisiana involving members from Tren de Aragua who reportedly forced Venezuelan women into sex trafficking to repay coyotes who smuggled them into the U.S.

The FBI has warned that it is possible the gang could team up with the MS-13— a deadly gang that originated in Los Angeles.

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/saraharnold/2024/06/15/biden-importing-venezuelan-gangs-into-us-n2640404

China –

China is in the midst of a “significant” expansion of its nuclear capabilities and may have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as the United States or Russia by 2030, according to a new global analysis of nuclear weapons.
Beijing is both growing and modernizing its nuclear arsenal, according to an annual report released Sunday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a group that tracks global security and arms control. China’s military stockpile grew from 410 nuclear warheads last year to 500 as of January, the report found.

The expansion of China’s capabilities came as SIPRI warned that even as the total number of nuclear warheads around the world was declining as Cold War-era weapons were phased out, there were steady year-on-year increases in the number of operational warheads that could be used quickly in the event of conflict.

About 2,100 deployed nuclear warheads are being kept in a state of “high operational alert” on ballistic missiles — and while almost all belong to Russia or the United States, China is believed to have placed some warheads on this level of alert for the first time, SIPRI found.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/06/china-pursuing-significant-expansion-of-nuclear-arsenal-report-says/

Phillipines –

The China Coast Guard (CCG) issued a statement that a Philippine supply ship headed to the BRP Sierra Madre on the Second Thomas Shoal was driving erratically collided with a CCG vessel after the CCG issued multiple warnings and employed “control measures.”

The Philippines did not deny a collision but declared the claims as “deceptive and misleading.”

Russia -

Putin said he would end the war in Ukraine only if Kyiv agreed to drop its NATO ambitions and hand over the entirety of four provinces claimed by Moscow.

***
Russia’s naval fleet has reportedly suffered tremendous losses in Ukraine and now resorts to submarines to continue patrolling the Black Sea.
Speaking on national television, Kyiv’s Southern Defense Forces spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk said the invading forces have recently begun a practice where their submarines rotate in the morning.

“In the Azov-Black Sea region, they have four submarines, three of which are cruise missile carriers. Two submarines periodically go to sea,” he disclosed.
This comes as the Ukrainian military claimed to have destroyed 30 percent of Moscow’s Black Sea fleet by the end of 2023.

Earlier this year, Kyiv’s Magura V5 naval drones struck four Russian patrol boats in Crimea, completely destroying two and damaging the other two.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/06/13/russia-submarines-black-sea/

NUCLEAR THREATS –

The Kremlin - Reports about NATO talks on deploying nuclear weapons indicate a dangerous escalation

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90s and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP – Well more like a partial week summary

Ukrainian Military intelligence drones attacked objects in Belgorod, Voronezh and Lipetsk regions, - hromadske source in Ukrainian intelligence reported. One of the targets was the Novolypetsk metallurgical plant and the local tractor plant

Issues with power supply in Rostov region after 3 explosions at local substation, likely due to Ukraine drones.

Things haven’t gone well for Russia in Vovchansk, Kharkiv front. Ukrainian forces isolated and proceeded to eliminate a force of 400-800 Russians as part of the Ukraine counter offensive in the region. Vovchansk was to be a key city to be captured by Russia and has since been turned into a death trap for them.

Ocheretyne -
Russian forced continue to press the attack with no noticeable gains of territory.

Outlook —

Ukraine is turning back a key area of the Russian efforts towards Kharkiv.

Unreported information has Russia deploying strategic bombers even further away from Ukraine, due to recent successful drone strikes. This move is evidence that Ukraine is forcing Russia to stretch its limited supply of S300 and S400 ADA systems even father, creating even more holes that Ukraine can exploit as well as progressively continue to pickoff those within range of current assets, such as in Crimea and areas of Russia adjacent to the Ukraine border.

Europe / NATO General –

The recent Swiss summit on the Ukraine war ended with no signifiant resolution. Putin taunted the gathering saying Ukraine must give up even more land in exchange for peace. Many european countries hardened their position against putin. and raised the beat of war drums even higher.
Of the 90 or so countries represented, just 84 signed the final communique affirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity and its right not to be invaded.
Saudi Arabia, India and South Africa were among those who abstained.
More critical was the absence from the entire summit of Russia’s close ally, China, despite being involved in earlier preparatory stages. Russia itself was not invited.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Netanyahu dissolves war cabinet.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

Israel PM Netanyahu dissolves war cabinet after the resigning of opposition members while he will continue to make sensitive decisions in a small forum of aides

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Intense fighting continues in central Rafah.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Actions are heating up substantially.

Israel took out the #2 leader of Hezbollah. Hezbollah responded with rocket attacks.

Here’s a recap of week June 9-15:

⁃96 barrages of rockets, anti-tank missiles and explosive drones fired by Hezbollah toward northern Israeli cities, including Haïfa, Tiberias and Safed.

A barrage of rockets can include as many as 50 or 100 projectiles sent within minutes.

For example, on June 12th, 90 projectiles were fired by Hezbollah at 8:43, then 70 projectiles at 9:38. Over 215 rockets were fired toward northern Israeli cities just that day.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Alert notice on the increase in Hezbollah rocket launches on the north, combined with increasing media releases from the israeli govt nothing that operations against Hezbollah on the ground will be starting soon. The current build up does appear to be on track with a potential August timeframe. Until them, Israel will be continuing to nail key Hezbollah and Iranian leadership in Lebanon and Syria as well as hitting critical logistical, command and ammo facilities.

Misc of Note –

Very much abbreviated, but a few key things I’m noticing

- Israeli movement towards war with Hezbollah is moving more rapidly forward and the US / biden effort to undercut the Israeli govt increases.

- Much of Europe is moving to war time footing. Even countries like Germany which have been waffling are now leaning more towards war preps. Russia’s stance indicates absolutely no willingness to approach the bargaining table at all.

US is included in the movement towards war. Mandatory automatic registration moving forward as an initial step towards the renewal of the draft, made necessary by the democrats killing the volunteer army model that has worked well since Reagan. Included in this is the draft of women (sorry trans, you can’t opt out by changing your gender).

Russian provocations combined with increasing pushback from NATO members may well result in the shoot down of a Russia fighter or some other incident.

- Mental / physical collapse of biden. Because of the election - biden cannot hide from public view. In doing so, his recent appearances show he is not physically / mentally fit - beyond doubt - to continue as president. I am surprised that biden has lasted as long as he has - must be some serious drugs keeping him running but those drugs are losing their effectiveness as demonstrated by recent events.

- Finally, Saudi Arabia effectively killing the petro dollar. That has been a key feature of US economic strength with other nations using it - supporting our Fed. It is a sign of a VERY significantly loss of world recognition of the US’ global leadership in all matters. Such move, combined with the growing BRICS movement using multiple currencies to make their purchases with, places things even more difficult to execute economic sanctions on rogue nations.

US is included in the movement towards war. Mandatory automatic registration moving forward as an initial step towards the renewal of the draft, made necessary by the democrats killing the volunteer army model that has worked well since Reagan. Included in this is the draft of women (sorry trans, you can’t opt out by changing your gender).

This is fallout from the 'sexual weirdo' DEI 'brass' promotion movement. This drift toward insanity - along with the fake 'crime down' FBI reports - need to be part of TV ads for Trump. NOT EVERYONE KNOWS.

Word is going out fast for another big march by pro-hamas and supporting elements on Washington in order to disrupt Netanyahu’s address of congress. The ring around the WH was big and this will likely to be huge - and many many times more violent.

Compared to the peaceful stroll through the capitol building by the Jan 6 crowd who are now political prisoners.

This hypocrisy is appalling.

“An unexpected cold front is bringing a wintry mix to Montana just as summer approaches. With a Winter Storm Watch in effect, heavy snow is expected in the high elevations of the Rockies, disrupting travel and creating hazardous conditions.”
LOL, people research. Montana can and has gotten snow EVERY month of the year. I’ve seen it! There is nothing rare about this.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The World Economic Forum (WEF) has called for a “controlled demolition” of the global food system as part of a major “reinvention” of how humans consume food.

In an article posted to their website on Thursday, the WEF declared that the consumption of meat and traditional forms of farming needed to be banned in order to prevent so-called ‘global boiling‘.

In the article, titled “Feeding the future: why Renovation and Reinvention are key to saving our food system,” WEF New Frontiers of Nutrition Project Fellow Juliana Weltman Glezer sounds the alarm on the greenhouse gas emissions caused by food production and warns of a 60% increase in food demand when the worldwide population hits 10 billion.
Dailywire reports: The article then compared an overhaul of the food system to the global transition to renewable energy, such as solar and wind power and electric vehicles.
“The food transition involves a similarly comprehensive transformation, with two different stages of change: Renovation and Reinvention,” Glezer wrote. “While Renovation makes incremental improvements across the food value chain, Reinvention aims for systemic change: the fully scaled reorientation of food production in a way that alters the underlying structures within the modern food industry.”

https://www.dailywire.com/news/world-economic-forum-article-calls-for-reinventing-the-global-food-system-praises-animal-free-products

OBSERVATION - The end goal of this ‘redesign’ is to create a global famine and reduct the population of the planet. Secondary goal is to control the remaining masses - he who controls the food, controls the people.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
JUN 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.

Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024

A routine traffic stop in Queens, New York, on Wednesday morning quickly escalated into a terror investigation after police discovered a cache of weapons and unsettling messages etched on a baton inside the driver’s SUV.
According to police sources, the incident has raised concerns about the driver’s potential ties to terrorist activities, the New York Daily News reports.
The suspect, identified as 27-year-old Judd Sanson, was pulled over by officers at approximately 1:25 a.m. near the intersection of 23rd Avenue and 86th Street in East Elmhurst.

Upon searching the vehicle, a Ford Explorer, police uncovered a disturbing array of weapons, including a Glock 9mm handgun, three knives, a dagger, and eight loaded magazines.
However, it was the discovery of an expandable baton, commonly known as an asp, that bore ominous messages.
Sources revealed that the baton was etched with four chilling warnings. One message read, “You left me no choice,” while another simply stated, “I am sorry.”

A third message stated: “You are going to learn today,” and the fourth message, written in Arabic, which reportedly translates to “God forgive me.”
In addition to the weapons found inside the vehicle, sources disclosed that Sanson was also in possession of an extensive collection of concerning items.
These included body armor, handcuffs, NYPD uniform items, two axes, a stun gun, and what was described as a weighted whip. The presence of such a wide range of weapons and tactical gear has further heightened suspicions about Sanson’s intentions.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/06/traffic-stop-leads-to-terror-probe-as-police-uncover-weapons-and-ominous-messages/

OBSERVATION - No word on any direct linkage to any terror groups, but everything points to the fact that he was on a transjectory to commit a mass murder event. Also, lack of political inclination also suggest he may be a lunatic leftie.

Biden / Harris Watch –

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Monday blamed “deepfakes” for the videos of President Joe Biden looking confused at different events recently.
“We’re seeing these deepfakes, these manipulated videos, and it is again, done in bad faith,” Jean-Pierre told reporters at the White House. During the response to the question from reporters, she also referred to the videos as “cheapfakes.”

OBSERVATION - What she didn’t say was that the WH released the videos to begin with.

Illegal Immigration –

Biden is set to announce a new policy that would protect hundreds of thousands of undocumented spouses of US citizens from deportation, according to administration officials.
The action will apply to those who have been in the country for at least 10 years and will allow them to work in the US legally.
It marks the most significant relief programme for undocumented migrants already in the US since the Obama administration announced the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or Daca, in 2012.
The White House believes more than 500,000 spouses of US citizens will benefit, in addition to 50,000 young people under 21 whose parent is married to an American citizen.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nnyr4j9w5o

OBSERVATION - This is just the start, biden will continue to press extra-legal means to grant temporary status to illegals in an all out effort to thwart any Trump mass deportation effort.

North/South Korea –

Russia’s president is on a two-day trip to North Korea, his first in 24 years. He’ll hold talks with Kim Jong Un, and most of his senior Cabinet members are part of the delegation.

Russia -

Russia’s president is on a two-day trip to North Korea, his first in 24 years. He’ll hold talks with Kim Jong Un, and most of his senior Cabinet members are part of the delegation.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90s and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 Shahed drones overnight. Explosion was reported near Odesa, reportedly Kh-59 missile was shot down

Ukrainian drones struck the port of Azov, Rostov Region, Russia, and set several oil tanks ablaze and severely damaging the facility.

Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka.

Crimean front —

Over the past two months, the Ukrainian Army has struck around 15 Russian air defense systems in the occupied Crimea.

Outlook —

Some Russian gains being noted, but as I’ve said before, the offensive has hit its high water mark.

Ukraine’s deep game against Russia forces in Crimea continues onward, creating what is developing into an air defense crisis for Russia. First it was driving the Black Sea Fleet out, now with more and more critical Russian ADA assets being liquidated, it opens up more of the territory for attack by drones and missiles. When Ukraine finally gets its pilots out of F16 training, even a small number could do a lot of damage if Russia cannot shoot back.

As noted under Belarus below, Su-30s have been moved into Belarus. I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia starts using them to attack Ukraine and stationing them there to avoid reprisal. Russia staged a large amount of its initial invasion forces in Belarus, so the president is set. If Ukraine attacked these bases, the war could quickly expand to include Belarus which could also draw Poland and Baltic nations in as well on Ukraine’s side.

Belarus -

During the past week, flights of Su-30SM fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded at Baranavichy airfield Belarus

OBSERVATION - Monitoring closely as recent Ukrainian drone attacks have hit several key Russian air bases housing this kind of modern aircraft. Russia may be switching to operating out of Belarus to protect them from Ukraine attack.

Europe / NATO General –

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that NATO may take steps to enhance NATO’s nuclear deterrence, eliciting varying responses from senior Kremlin officials.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel reports progress on its operation in Rafah.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***
The US President’s envoy warned the Israelis of the possibility that the war with Hezbollah would lead to a large-scale Iranian attack that would be difficult for Israel to confront.

***
Israeli negotiator says tens of Gaza hostages ‘alive with certainty’

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Most of the action overnight centered in Rafah and central Gaza

***
The IDF on Monday said that its Division 162 has defeated half of Hamas’s battalions in Rafah, including killing at least 550 terrorists, as well as destroyed around 200 tunnel shafts, and eliminated the terror group’s last major rocket inventory. (NOTE - the 550 are visually confirmed and not those suspected of being buried under rubble)

Further, the IDF said that within a couple of weeks it would likely be in control of all of Rafah and that the final battles with the remaining two Hamas battalions in parts of Tel al-Sultan and the eastern part of Shabura are already underway.

In addition, the IDF said that the tunnel network in Rafah, especially near the Philadelphi Corridor with Egypt has been found to be even more complex than those found in Khan Yunis, Jabaliya, and the military quarter of Gaza City.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-806594#google_vignette

***
The IDF took control of the NPK neighborhood, which is considered the “beating heart” of Rafah. This is a terrorist stronghold where the most complex underground features have been found since the beginning of the fighting. Hamas has set up combat compounds there, and captures houses in order to harm the forces. Also, Hamas was prepared with cameras in almost every alley and every room, as part of the preparation for encountering IDF fighters.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli military official: Hezbollah was forced to withdraw its forces 8 km into Lebanese territory

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Saudi Crown Prince: The Kingdom renews its call to the international community to recognize the independent State of Palestine on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel’s shifting focus towards Hezbollah continues. Their report that Hezbollah forces have pulled back 8 KM is interesting and would suggest that many direct fire systems, such as ATGMs have become less effective. Hard to independently confirm, but Israel has been hitting front line positions pretty hard in battlefield preparations for the Israeli ground offensive.

biden representatives to Israel continue to raise the red flag of Iranian involvement. Currently, Iran is still trying to pick up the political pieces of a new election for a president as well as looking at the failure of the missile/drone attack earlier this year on Israel - and Israel’s small, but highly effective retaliatory strike. Iran may decide to act in a different direction - closing off the Straits of Hormuz - or other closer action against US and other western interests. But that is a highly dangerous move by itself, that it may not be ready for.

Fighting in Gaza will continue to ebb and flow as Israel pulls out of selective areas to allow Hamas to attempt to reform and then counter strike.

“An unexpected cold front is bringing a wintry mix to Montana just as summer approaches. With a Winter Storm Watch in effect, heavy snow is expected in the high elevations of the Rockies, disrupting travel and creating hazardous conditions.”
LOL, people research. Montana can and has gotten snow EVERY month of the year. I’ve seen it! There is nothing rare about this.

Globalism / Great Reset –

The World Economic Forum (WEF) has called for a “controlled demolition” of the global food system as part of a major “reinvention” of how humans consume food.

In an article posted to their website on Thursday, the WEF declared that the consumption of meat and traditional forms of farming needed to be banned in order to prevent so-called ‘global boiling‘.

In the article, titled “Feeding the future: why Renovation and Reinvention are key to saving our food system,” WEF New Frontiers of Nutrition Project Fellow Juliana Weltman Glezer sounds the alarm on the greenhouse gas emissions caused by food production and warns of a 60% increase in food demand when the worldwide population hits 10 billion.
Dailywire reports: The article then compared an overhaul of the food system to the global transition to renewable energy, such as solar and wind power and electric vehicles.
“The food transition involves a similarly comprehensive transformation, with two different stages of change: Renovation and Reinvention,” Glezer wrote. “While Renovation makes incremental improvements across the food value chain, Reinvention aims for systemic change: the fully scaled reorientation of food production in a way that alters the underlying structures within the modern food industry.”

https://www.dailywire.com/news/world-economic-forum-article-calls-for-reinventing-the-global-food-system-praises-animal-free-products

OBSERVATION - The end goal of this ‘redesign’ is to create a global famine and reduct the population of the planet. Secondary goal is to control the remaining masses - he who controls the food, controls the people.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
JUN 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.

Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024

A routine traffic stop in Queens, New York, on Wednesday morning quickly escalated into a terror investigation after police discovered a cache of weapons and unsettling messages etched on a baton inside the driver’s SUV.
According to police sources, the incident has raised concerns about the driver’s potential ties to terrorist activities, the New York Daily News reports.
The suspect, identified as 27-year-old Judd Sanson, was pulled over by officers at approximately 1:25 a.m. near the intersection of 23rd Avenue and 86th Street in East Elmhurst.

Upon searching the vehicle, a Ford Explorer, police uncovered a disturbing array of weapons, including a Glock 9mm handgun, three knives, a dagger, and eight loaded magazines.
However, it was the discovery of an expandable baton, commonly known as an asp, that bore ominous messages.
Sources revealed that the baton was etched with four chilling warnings. One message read, “You left me no choice,” while another simply stated, “I am sorry.”

A third message stated: “You are going to learn today,” and the fourth message, written in Arabic, which reportedly translates to “God forgive me.”
In addition to the weapons found inside the vehicle, sources disclosed that Sanson was also in possession of an extensive collection of concerning items.
These included body armor, handcuffs, NYPD uniform items, two axes, a stun gun, and what was described as a weighted whip. The presence of such a wide range of weapons and tactical gear has further heightened suspicions about Sanson’s intentions.

https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/06/traffic-stop-leads-to-terror-probe-as-police-uncover-weapons-and-ominous-messages/

OBSERVATION - No word on any direct linkage to any terror groups, but everything points to the fact that he was on a transjectory to commit a mass murder event. Also, lack of political inclination also suggest he may be a lunatic leftie.

Biden / Harris Watch –

White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Monday blamed “deepfakes” for the videos of President Joe Biden looking confused at different events recently.
“We’re seeing these deepfakes, these manipulated videos, and it is again, done in bad faith,” Jean-Pierre told reporters at the White House. During the response to the question from reporters, she also referred to the videos as “cheapfakes.”

OBSERVATION - What she didn’t say was that the WH released the videos to begin with.

Illegal Immigration –

Biden is set to announce a new policy that would protect hundreds of thousands of undocumented spouses of US citizens from deportation, according to administration officials.
The action will apply to those who have been in the country for at least 10 years and will allow them to work in the US legally.
It marks the most significant relief programme for undocumented migrants already in the US since the Obama administration announced the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or Daca, in 2012.
The White House believes more than 500,000 spouses of US citizens will benefit, in addition to 50,000 young people under 21 whose parent is married to an American citizen.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nnyr4j9w5o

OBSERVATION - This is just the start, biden will continue to press extra-legal means to grant temporary status to illegals in an all out effort to thwart any Trump mass deportation effort.

North/South Korea –

Russia’s president is on a two-day trip to North Korea, his first in 24 years. He’ll hold talks with Kim Jong Un, and most of his senior Cabinet members are part of the delegation.

Russia -

Russia’s president is on a two-day trip to North Korea, his first in 24 years. He’ll hold talks with Kim Jong Un, and most of his senior Cabinet members are part of the delegation.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90s and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 Shahed drones overnight. Explosion was reported near Odesa, reportedly Kh-59 missile was shot down

Ukrainian drones struck the port of Azov, Rostov Region, Russia, and set several oil tanks ablaze and severely damaging the facility.

Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka.

Crimean front —

Over the past two months, the Ukrainian Army has struck around 15 Russian air defense systems in the occupied Crimea.

Outlook —

Some Russian gains being noted, but as I’ve said before, the offensive has hit its high water mark.

Ukraine’s deep game against Russia forces in Crimea continues onward, creating what is developing into an air defense crisis for Russia. First it was driving the Black Sea Fleet out, now with more and more critical Russian ADA assets being liquidated, it opens up more of the territory for attack by drones and missiles. When Ukraine finally gets its pilots out of F16 training, even a small number could do a lot of damage if Russia cannot shoot back.

As noted under Belarus below, Su-30s have been moved into Belarus. I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia starts using them to attack Ukraine and stationing them there to avoid reprisal. Russia staged a large amount of its initial invasion forces in Belarus, so the president is set. If Ukraine attacked these bases, the war could quickly expand to include Belarus which could also draw Poland and Baltic nations in as well on Ukraine’s side.

Belarus -

During the past week, flights of Su-30SM fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded at Baranavichy airfield Belarus

OBSERVATION - Monitoring closely as recent Ukrainian drone attacks have hit several key Russian air bases housing this kind of modern aircraft. Russia may be switching to operating out of Belarus to protect them from Ukraine attack.

Europe / NATO General –

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that NATO may take steps to enhance NATO’s nuclear deterrence, eliciting varying responses from senior Kremlin officials.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel reports progress on its operation in Rafah.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***
The US President’s envoy warned the Israelis of the possibility that the war with Hezbollah would lead to a large-scale Iranian attack that would be difficult for Israel to confront.

***
Israeli negotiator says tens of Gaza hostages ‘alive with certainty’

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Most of the action overnight centered in Rafah and central Gaza

***
The IDF on Monday said that its Division 162 has defeated half of Hamas’s battalions in Rafah, including killing at least 550 terrorists, as well as destroyed around 200 tunnel shafts, and eliminated the terror group’s last major rocket inventory. (NOTE - the 550 are visually confirmed and not those suspected of being buried under rubble)

Further, the IDF said that within a couple of weeks it would likely be in control of all of Rafah and that the final battles with the remaining two Hamas battalions in parts of Tel al-Sultan and the eastern part of Shabura are already underway.

In addition, the IDF said that the tunnel network in Rafah, especially near the Philadelphi Corridor with Egypt has been found to be even more complex than those found in Khan Yunis, Jabaliya, and the military quarter of Gaza City.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-806594#google_vignette

***
The IDF took control of the NPK neighborhood, which is considered the “beating heart” of Rafah. This is a terrorist stronghold where the most complex underground features have been found since the beginning of the fighting. Hamas has set up combat compounds there, and captures houses in order to harm the forces. Also, Hamas was prepared with cameras in almost every alley and every room, as part of the preparation for encountering IDF fighters.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

Israeli military official: Hezbollah was forced to withdraw its forces 8 km into Lebanese territory

———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

Saudi Crown Prince: The Kingdom renews its call to the international community to recognize the independent State of Palestine on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Israel’s shifting focus towards Hezbollah continues. Their report that Hezbollah forces have pulled back 8 KM is interesting and would suggest that many direct fire systems, such as ATGMs have become less effective. Hard to independently confirm, but Israel has been hitting front line positions pretty hard in battlefield preparations for the Israeli ground offensive.

biden representatives to Israel continue to raise the red flag of Iranian involvement. Currently, Iran is still trying to pick up the political pieces of a new election for a president as well as looking at the failure of the missile/drone attack earlier this year on Israel - and Israel’s small, but highly effective retaliatory strike. Iran may decide to act in a different direction - closing off the Straits of Hormuz - or other closer action against US and other western interests. But that is a highly dangerous move by itself, that it may not be ready for.

Fighting in Gaza will continue to ebb and flow as Israel pulls out of selective areas to allow Hamas to attempt to reform and then counter strike.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nnyr4j9w5o

OBSERVATION - This is just the start, biden will continue to press extra-legal means to grant temporary status to illegals in an all out effort to thwart any Trump mass deportation effort.

Biden’s policies always put illegals before Americans if that’s the pairing.

I wonder how Biden would feel if some poor third world country was being taken over by wealthy (but illegal) Americans wanting to ‘take advantage’ of the local people?

Would he ‘understand’ that citizens of a country have rights to protect their borders? ? Or would he side with the ‘illegals’ - in this case - Americans?

My guess is that Biden hates the people who live in the United States so much that he would always take the position against American citizens.

My last post until next Monday. Stay safe out there.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
JUN 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.

Two FBI agents came to the door of nurse who helped expose illegal gender program at Texas Children’s Hospital. This is connected to the prosecution of Dr. Eitan Haim, who outed the program at Texas Children’s Hospital that violated Texas law. The Biden Admin is seeking to jail Haim for a decade, alleging he violated HIPPA law.

OBSERVATION - This is not the first time FBI has shown up unannounced at peoples doors to ‘discuss’ concerns over citizens actions and criticisms. As with so many actions lately, such is designed to intimidate opponents of biden policies. Included have been the totally unnecessary SWAT tactics against peaceful citizens - in one case pro-life supporters - again, to silence and chill opposition. This is banana republic tyrannical actions. These FBI agents better recognize that they are siding with despots.

Economy-

According to a report from real estate data researcher ATTOM, 32,621 properties had foreclosure filings in May, a three percent jump from the prior month.

OBSERVATION - This is a growing flood that threatens not only the housing market but the banking industry as well as they get hit with foreclosures of dead weight properties and losses from unpaid loans.

***
Data showed U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% in May, versus the 0.3% increase expected by economists polled by Reuters, as lower gasoline prices weighed on receipts at service stations.
Markets slightly increased bets on two interest rate cuts from the Fed this year following the data, according to LSEG’s FedWatch.
“The weaker-than-expected data’s telling me that consumers are still having a difficult time and that the economy is still moving forward, but at a slower pace,” Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management, said.
“The Fed has to start thinking about cutting interest rates, perhaps sooner than the end of the year.”

OBSERVATION - The Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place on this one. Inflation is on the rise and the economy is in the dumps visible from dropped sales. Cutting rates may help stimulate the economy - by a very little bit, but risk jacking inflation at even a higher rate. Face it, it is a lose - lose situation for the average citizen.

POLITICAL FRONT –

July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

Schumer’s bump stock ban was stopped in the senate yesterday. The bill not only targeted bump stocks, but a considerable number of semi-automatic weapons as well.

Biden / Harris Watch –

WH press and their willing accomplices in the MSM continue to try to spin biden’s dementia episodes of late into fake reports and videos.

Illegal Immigration –

Lawsuits already engaged against biden’s essentially an amnesty for illegals ‘married’ to citizens.

China –

A Chinese missile submarine came to the surface near Taiwan recently and was escorted away by Chinese naval vessels.

Some are inferring it to be an overall display of force, but in most instances when a sub surfaces like this it is due to a serious mechanical problem.

though not noted every day here, China continues to intrude on Taiwan’s air and sea boundaries with varying numbers of ships and planes.

North/South Korea –

Russia and North Korea have signed a deal to help each other in the event of aggression against them, Putin says.
Kim Jong Un has said he fully supports Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as Putin visits North Korea after 24 years

Russia -

Following his visit to North Korea, Putin will visit long-time ally Vietnam, where he is expected to discuss trade.

OBSERVATION - Putin’s trip shows his weakness in a way vs China. He knows China will extract its will against Russia eventually if he continues to seek their help in the war against Ukraine. NK is more than happy to see Russian money come into its coffers as well as new technology has Kim works to build up his forces against a superior SK / US coalition. Vietnam in particular, as a regional enemy of China who kicked their rear end in a post Vietnam war era scrum.

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90s and fair.

24 HOUR ROUND UP –

Ukrainian air defense shot down 19 Shahed UAVs overnight. One drone managed to hit the the Scientific Research Institute in Lviv. Another hit a residential area in Lviv.

Outlook —

The grind continues, with Ukraine gaining tactical advantage in the Kharkiv front while working hard in the Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka fronts.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Israel approved of operational plans for combat against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

Netanyahu accused the Biden administration of withholding the supply of arms to Israel. In response, the White House canceled high-level talks between American and Israeli security officials in Washington, DC

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

Most of the action overnight centered in Rafah and central Gaza

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

IDF:The Commanding Officer of the Northern Command, MG Ori Gordin, and the Head of the Operations Directorate, MG Oded Basiuk, approved operational plans and held a joint situational assessment in the Northern Command earlier today. As part of the situational assessment, operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved and validated, and decisions were taken on the continuation of increasing the readiness of troops in the field

***
Hezbollah on Tuesday published footage taken by a spy drone that infiltrated some 27 km (17 miles) into Israel and flew above the Haifa area for at least ten minutes without being shot down.

The high-definition footage shows sensitive areas like the Haifa port and naval base, aerial defense systems like David’s Sling and Iron Dome, the Rafael defense company’s factory, as well as civilian areas.

The Israel Defense Forces said its systems were tracking the small “Hudhud”-type drone the whole way but decided not to shoot it down as it didn’t pose a threat, while an interception could cause shrapnel that would endanger many civilians in the Haifa metropolitan area.

https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/hezbollah-spy-drone/2024/06/19/id/1169289/

——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

Syria - this morning Israeli drones carried out airstrikes on 2 military sites in Daraa & Quneitra province.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

British military says bulk carrier Tutor sinks after attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels believed to have killed 1 on board.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Evidence continues to build that Israel is positioning itself to launch its full scale operation against Hezbollah sooner rather than later. The rumored August window remains a possible target for operations to kick off.

Israel continues to hit Hezbollah targets in S Lebanon hard, and these targets appear not to be ones directly involved with Hezbollah attacks into N Israel. The conclusion being that Israel is softening up Hezbollah, stepping them of ammo supply, command and control capabilities. Parallel with this is the steady increasing use of drones to conduct pin point attacks on Hezbollah leadership. The intelligence requirements and timeliness for such now almost daily hits is incredible and Hezbollah has some serious OPSEC problems.

The Gaza fight is leveling out again. Estimates on the completion of the Rafah phase is set at 2 - 3 weeks. IDF finding tunnel access points all over the place, more than expected. Reports that Hamas is attempting to disengage its fighters to blend into refugees in order to reform in central and northern Gaza seem reasonable given Hamas tactics. This sets up opportunities for IDF to nail these groups as they rebound -most times in the middle of refugee camps.

Houthi stepping up attacks and it appears that they are receiving targeting support from Iranian naval vessels, with the most recent successful attack backed by an Iranian vessel located very close to the hit cargo ship.

Thanks for your reports, Godzilla. See you next week.

A Chinese missile submarine came to the surface near Taiwan recently and was escorted away by Chinese naval vessels. Some are inferring it to be an overall display of force, but in most instances when a sub surfaces like this it is due to a serious mechanical problem.

That makes sense... enjoy your time off Godzilla...

The Threat of Terrorism in America Has Returned

https://substack.com/home/post/p-145772419

Ok, back for a while and boy things were busy. Here are some of the key highlights during my time off.

CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

JUN 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.

Hamas supporters from a group called “Palestine Action US” are calling on their radical Muslim and Leftist supporters to “STOP THE DEBATE” between Joe Biden and President Trump that is scheduled to take place on Thursday, June 27th in Atlanta, Georgia.

***
Hamas supporters attacked a synagogue in an LA suburb yesterday, being stopped by LAPD. Jewish counter protestors rushed to the scene and drove the Hamas/Antifa hybrid protestors away, causing the Antifa elements to cry to the cops for protection.

OBSERVATION - I expect increasing direct attacks against the Jewish community by pro-Hamas elements melded with Antifa elements. This weekend’s action is of particular note that the area has a high percentage of Jewish residents, indicating that the pro-hamas crowd may be gaining some degree of confidence in their tactics of intimidation. OTOH, the response of the Jewish residents may be a harbinger of a change into “roof top korean” mode to deter further violent incursions.

***

Documents from a Biden Administration “Homeland Intelligence Experts” group profiles members of the military, religious Americans and supporters of former President as likely violent domestic terror threats.

The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) documents were obtained by American First Legal (AFL) through its lawsuit that caused the intelligence group to be disbanded.

According to an AFL report released Friday, the documents show “how the Biden Administration classifies someone as a person likely to commit ‘domestic violent extremist’ attacks, particularly those who support President Trump, are ‘in the military,’ or are ‘religious.’”

“[W]e should be more worried about these,” the group says, going on the discuss how “most of the Domestic Terrorism threat now comes from supporters of the former president” (Trump supporters).

Being a person of faith, a Trump supporter or a member of the military are “indicators of extremists and terrorism,” the DHS intelligence group claims, without citing and documentation of its claim.

However, “Military personnel are less likely to be supporters of radical political causes than other Americans,” The Daily Caller reports, citing a 2023 RAND Corporation study.

“The Biden Administration sees America-first patriots like us as domestic TERRORISTS. Let that sink in,” Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) wrote on social media, responding to AFL’s findings.

https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/dhs-docs-profile-military-religious-and-trump-supporters-likely-violent

OBSERVATION - Many have been reporting that DHS has been targeting citizens under these criteria for several years now, and I’ve been posting such here. This revelation now places it clearly out of the realm of conspiracy theories into fact. The extent of the number of people that would be tagged as terrorist is astounding. Worst level potential is a massive move to try to round up/arrest as many as possible in the short time before the election. Under current conditions, such an operation wouldn’t be feasible. However, if the regime conducts some sort of false flag operation to generate a ‘reason’, then bar the doors katie.

Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024

Terrorism experts are warning that the red lights are flashing and the potential for a terrorist attack are extremely high. A key point made is that it only took 19 terrorists to execute 9/11 and (tens of) thousands have likely crossed the border in the past few years.

Economy-

Economists are going back and forth over the most recent data, some declaring a ‘soft’ landing, while others suggest we’ve entered a recession bound to be a depression.

Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

Aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) has departed the Red Sea while USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71), currently in the Pacific, will leave for the Middle East to continue a U.S. presence mission in the region, USNI News has learned.

“[The] Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group departed the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility today and will remain briefly in the U.S. European Command area of responsibility before returning home after more than seven months deployed in support of U.S. regional deterrence and force protection efforts, reads a Saturday statement from Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder.

“Next week, the TR CSG will depart the Indo-Pacific for the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. The United States will continue to maintain a robust presence in the Indo-Pacific region to strengthen peace, stability, and deterrence alongside allies and partners.”

It’s unclear how long Roosevelt, which deployed in January, will need to stay on station before it’s relieved by the next carrier slated to operate in the region. The next carrier on the East Coast preparing to leave is USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75), which is still early in its workups ahead of a deployment later this summer, USNI News understands.

https://news.usni.org/2024/06/21/uss-dwight-d-eisenhower-leaving-red-sea-pacific-carrier-heading-to-the-middle-east

POLITICAL FRONT –

Jun 27 - first debate
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

***

On Saturday, former Trump official Kash Patel joined Steve Bannon on The War Room to discuss his latest blockbuster report on Paul Ryan.
According to Kash Patel, Paul Ryan was the first to receive a copy of the bogus Steele Dossier back in 2016. And Paul Ryan hid this from investigators, his Republican colleagues, and Trump officials.
Kash Patel posted this on Truth Social on Thursday.

Kash Patel: Paul Ryan as Speaker of the House had in his possession the Steele Dossier before he had [Devin Nunes] and I launch Russia Gate Investigation, and never told us(think, before anyone knew anything about fake intel, he had his own copy). I found it on my own then blew up FBI/DOJ. Why didnt he tell his own damn team? Report that fake news.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/06/huge-kash-patel-drops-bomb-british-court-reveals/

OBSERVATION - As if we need more to hate Ryan over, this is just way over the top. He actively participated in a massive hoax in order to leverage against Trump and in turn, screw the American people massively.

***
RUMINT - Some far-right elements are reportedly attempting to pian an anti-trump actions at the RNC convention in opposition of suspected VP choice by Trump. Political observers are noting that such an effort is currently small and has very little chance of success,.

Biden / Harris Watch –

Biden has been squirreled away at Camp David allegedly preparing for his debate with Trump. Given his diminished performance in Europe a week ago, many are wondering just what is the purpose of his calling for early debates. Under his current mental conditions, he will be hard pressed to remember his key points without a teleprompter. Some rumors are that they are hoping he will melt down, justifying a last minute switch in presidential candidates away from the growingly unpopular biden and onto a fresher face. The leading theory will see Newscum replacing biden for the presidential run, with Harris getting the shift over to be the next kalifornian governor. VP slot may be picked up by hillary.

ADDITIONAL - With his greatly diminished performance in Europe it remains to see just what state of mind and body biden will be in this Thursday.

Illegal Immigration –

More than 241,000 people were apprehended after illegally entering the U.S. in May, according to newly released data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
May’s numbers push the total number of apprehensions and encounters of illegal border crossers to more than 2.2 million in the first eight months of fiscal 2024.
Last month, the majority of illegal entries occurred at the southwest border of 170,723.

China –

Chinese Coast Guard seized ships of a Philippine Navy resupply mission that was underway near the Second Thomas Shoal. The Armed Forces of the Philippines revealed pictures of the Monday confrontation in a social media post, calling the attack “coercive, aggressive, and barbaric.”

Videos show the resupply mission turning to blows as China became involved. In one clip, Chinese sailors could be seen waving and swinging axes, machetes and other melee weapons as the boats closed in to become a chaotic mass.

Chinese forces were able to seize two of the supply boats, stripping them of multiple M4 rifles as well as equipment and supplies.
Although the boats were recovered by Philippine forces, the vessels were left severely damaged. Manila is now demanding the return of seized equipment and weaponry.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/06/pacific-edge-war-chinese-naval-forces-board-seize/

OBSERVATION - The increasingly aggressive Chinese forces may push things into a shooting conflict at the Second Thomas Shoal. This would trigger numerous defense pacts by many nations - including the US - with the Philippines and an escalation of the conflict.

Phillipines –

See China above

Russia -

Attacks on police posts, churches and a synagogue in Russia’s North Caucasus republic of Dagestan have left 19 police officers and several civilians dead. Six gunmen were also killed.

At least sixteen people were taken to hospitals with injuries.

Three days of mourning have been declared in Dagestan, a predominantly Muslim republic in southern Russia which neighbors Chechnya.

The apparently coordinated attacks targeted the cities of Derbent and Makhachkala on the Orthodox festival of Pentecost, with an Orthodox priest among those killed. Islamic terrorists likely affiliated with ISIS. The Islamists lost at least 4 combatants. 2 of the IS terrorists were allegedly sons of an official of the local administration.

OBSERVATION - This would be another in a series of ISIS based attacks on Russia. With Russian military presence shifted to Ukraine, islamic terrorists apparently see a window of opportunity to strike Russia.

Logistics –

Since early 2022 Russia has lost 562 military aircraft, with 415 of them destroyed and 147 captured on the ground by Ukrainian troops early in the war. In addition Russia has lost over 300 helicopters, most of them early in the war. The heavy helicopter losses prompted Russia to rarely use helicopters inside Ukraine. Most of the combat aircraft lost have been the two seat 39-ton, twin engine Su-34s and single seat 34-ton, twin engine Su-35s. The more expensive Su-34s and Su-35s have been built in small numbers, about 260 aircraft altogether. These aircraft are expensive and time consuming to build. The economic sanctions imposed on Russia after the 2022 invasion, slowed but did not stop construction of Su-34’s and Su-35’s. Russia still had several hundred 15-ton, twin engine MiG-29s when the Ukraine war started in 2022.

https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/202406230357.aspx

Ukraine –

WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70 - 80s and fair.

RUMINT –
90 thousand Russians were preparing for a new offensive against Ukraine.

24 HOUR ROUND UP – More like a multi-day roundup

Ukraine on Saturday said Russia had launched a “massive” overnight attack on energy infrastructure in the country’s west and south. “Equipment at (operator) Ukrenergo facilities in Zaporizhzhia and Lviv regions was damaged,” the energy ministry said, adding that two employees were wounded and hospitalized in Zaporizhzhia.

ATACMS strikes reportedly took out Russia’s Space Tracking and Communication Center (NIP-16) in occupied Crimea.

Russia claims US responsible for deaths of civilian vacationers in Crimea, and the beach area directly targeted by ATACMS. However, missile debris has been identified as belonging to the Russian 9M330 air defense missile launched by the Tor-M2 platform, not ATACMS as the fascists falsely claimed.

Local residents and OSINT analysts suggest that the the Russian 40th command and measurement complex, military unit 81415 near Vitino in occupied Crimea was attacked.

Ukraine deleting a Russian Rifle Regiment headquarter in the Belgorod region of Russia

For the first time, Russia launched four Kalibr missiles at Ukraine from the Sea of Azov instead of the Black Sea. The Ukrainian Navy noted this as a significant shift, indicating that Russia now perceives the Sea of Azov as a safer launching area.

Russian forces press offensive in the Svatove region.

Ocheretyne -

Russian forces continue to press Ukraine defense along this front.

Kharkiv Front -

Russia began withdrawing a number of units from near Vovchansk due to the loss of their combat capability. The withdrawal of troops was recorded near Lyptsi and Tykhe”. Ukraine forces quickly retook territory upon their withdrawal. Rumors from both Ukraine and Russian sources suggest that the Russian forces in this region are on the verge of a larger collapse.

Outlook —

Ukraine’s deep warfare against Russia continues to pile up the hits. With numerous oil facilities hit as well, these strikes on high level targets in Crimea and Belgorod are throwing serious wrenches into the support to the waning offensive in Ukraine.

Renewed Ukraine artillery power has been devastating Russian assaults across the eastern front. Evidenced by the potential impending collapse of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region.

These strategic strikes are also stripping Russian of its air defense cover and more and more S300 and S400 batteries go up in a puff of smoke. This only increases the success of Ukraine drones striking deep into Russia.

Reports that Russia has been pulling more and more forces out of key bases around its periphery to throw into the conflict. Add to it the reports that more and more of the tanks being shipped to the front are T54/55 vintage indicates they are scraping the bottom of the barrel.

Ukraine may be looking at the southern fronts for movements of more Russian forces to the eastern front. A potential opening for Ukraine to push towards Crimea again.

Politics between Ukraine and DC over just how deep Ukraine can use the long range ATACMS into Russia will be continuing. With the preverbal camel nose under the tent, Ukraine is pushing to justify striking Russian airbases within range of the missiles and they may well eventually win on that argument.

Bottom line is the situation is dynamic but Ukraine seems to be taking over the initiative both on the ground and in the deep game.

ISRAEL –

Key overnight developments -

- Lebanese officials scramble to belay fears over Hezbollah ammo stockpiles at Beruit airport.

- Initial stages of evacuations by various countries of citizens from Lebanon.

——— GENERAL ——————————-

Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

***

Netanyahu says once intense phase of fighting ends in Gaza, it will allow deployment of more forces to northern border with Lebanon- Reuters

Netanyahu: We are not ready for a Palestinian state, & we will not allow the Palestinian Authority to rule Gaza. Reestablishing Israeli settlements in Gaza is not realistic. We will administer Gaza for a time & then maybe pass to tribal control

Mohamed Salah, an official in Hamas’ weapons development and production projects, was killed in a raid yesterday in Gaza

——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

A series of successive Israeli raids west of Gaza City were reported overnight.

——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

The first *clear* sign of all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah may be the partial/total evacuation of foreign embassies. Countries are also reportedly urging citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible and are organizing efforts to evacuate them.

Additional reports of armor and tanks being moved towards potential staging areas in N Israel.

***
France told members of the Lebanese government that it is ready to support the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) if they are deployed to secure the southern border with Israel and push Hezbollah away from the area.
Discussions are ongoing to increase LAF presence in southern Lebanon to try and avoid an Israeli invasion.

OBSERVATION - This would be a renewal the Lebanese civil war. However, much on this subject is RUMINT at the present.

***
Lebanon is panicking from the news in the world media about the weapons stockpiles at the airport in Beirut. In one hour, all the heads of state, including Nasrallah, went on the air and denied it. Officials said that if Israel attacks the airport while the stockpile of weapons was on site, it could destroy Beirut.

Hezbollah stores large quantities of Iranian weapons including missiles & explosives at Beirut international airport, Telegraph reports; arms shipped on direct flights from Iran, airport source says.

OBSERVATION - This rumor is entirely plausible and highly probable. Following the tactic also used by Hamas, storing war materials in ‘protected’ civilian areas is being used elsewhere. The thought being that Beirut being far enough away from the potential war in S Lebanon that those supplies would be safe. Hezbollah’s scramble to disperse these munitions will lead Israeli intelligence to other stockpiles - and addition to target sets.

***
Senior Israeli Officials have reportedly stated during meetings in Washington, that if full-scale war with Hezbollah does occur they may be forced to utilized weapons that they have never used before to halt the launch of missiles and rockets towards Israel.

***
Reports of intense Israeli air and artillery bombardments of S Lebanon overnight.

———WEST BANK——————————-

Dozens of security police actions across the West Bank rounding up Hamas and affiliated terrorists and supporters.

———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

Houthi have reestablished a more aggressive operation in the Red Sea region, hitting and seriously damaging several ships over the past week.

——— FORECAST ————————-

Evidence continues to build that Israel is positioning itself to launch its full scale operation against Hezbollah sooner rather than later. Israel appears to be switching gears in Gaza and actions towards Hezbollah are growing. It is anticipated that the high tempo fishing in Gaza will continue for at least two more weeks. As indicated by Netanyahu, those forces will be shifted northward. August is still looking to be a high probably window for operations to begin, though Israel could strike sooner to keep Hezbollah off balance and generate surprise.

i’m also paying attention for the mobilization of additional Israeli reserves to the Lebanon operation.

Israel’s warning of using previously unused weapons against Hezbollah has gotten some interesting notice. Some are thinking that Israel has some sort of a non-nuclear EMP weapon that could fry the launch systems. Others think Israel may use surface to surface ballistic missiles or submarine launched cruise missiles. Others think Israel is messing with the heads of Hezbollah and doesn’t have any secret weapons. In respect to Israel, I wouldn’t write it off too fast.

Many have warned that the Lebanon fight will turn the nation into another Gaza. This is not entire correct. Gaza is a high density urban environment whereas southern Lebanon is more open terrain. If Israel targets Hezbollah facilities in and around Beruit, then some comparisons could be made.

Just a quick swag on how Israel may pursue the war. I think the strongest push will be the eastern most section of Lebanon north of the Golan Heights. Here the instance to the Litani River is the shortest and pushing Hezbollah back would also provide more protection for strategic Israeli early warning system in the Golan. This is also where some of the heaviest ground fighting has been occurring. Another axis could be an Israeli run up the coast line that swings east to meet up with another thrust from the south central area. Again, this is very speculative on my part and I’ve not seen any OSINT or govt released plans on the conduct of the war.

The leading theory will see Newscum replacing biden for the presidential run, with Harris getting the shift over to be the next kalifornian governor. VP slot may be picked up by hillary.

Hillary!™ who will promptly suicide Newscum...

Russia claims US responsible for deaths of civilian vacationers in Crimea, and the beach area directly targeted by ATACMS. However, missile debris has been identified as belonging to the Russian 9M330 air defense missile launched by the Tor-M2 platform, not ATACMS

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