My last post until next Monday. Stay safe out there.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
JUN 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Two FBI agents came to the door of nurse who helped expose illegal gender program at Texas Children’s Hospital. This is connected to the prosecution of Dr. Eitan Haim, who outed the program at Texas Children’s Hospital that violated Texas law. The Biden Admin is seeking to jail Haim for a decade, alleging he violated HIPPA law.
OBSERVATION - This is not the first time FBI has shown up unannounced at peoples doors to ‘discuss’ concerns over citizens actions and criticisms. As with so many actions lately, such is designed to intimidate opponents of biden policies. Included have been the totally unnecessary SWAT tactics against peaceful citizens - in one case pro-life supporters - again, to silence and chill opposition. This is banana republic tyrannical actions. These FBI agents better recognize that they are siding with despots.
Economy-
According to a report from real estate data researcher ATTOM, 32,621 properties had foreclosure filings in May, a three percent jump from the prior month.
OBSERVATION - This is a growing flood that threatens not only the housing market but the banking industry as well as they get hit with foreclosures of dead weight properties and losses from unpaid loans.
***
Data showed U.S. retail sales rose 0.1% in May, versus the 0.3% increase expected by economists polled by Reuters, as lower gasoline prices weighed on receipts at service stations.
Markets slightly increased bets on two interest rate cuts from the Fed this year following the data, according to LSEG’s FedWatch.
“The weaker-than-expected data’s telling me that consumers are still having a difficult time and that the economy is still moving forward, but at a slower pace,” Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth Management, said.
“The Fed has to start thinking about cutting interest rates, perhaps sooner than the end of the year.”
OBSERVATION - The Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place on this one. Inflation is on the rise and the economy is in the dumps visible from dropped sales. Cutting rates may help stimulate the economy - by a very little bit, but risk jacking inflation at even a higher rate. Face it, it is a lose - lose situation for the average citizen.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Schumer’s bump stock ban was stopped in the senate yesterday. The bill not only targeted bump stocks, but a considerable number of semi-automatic weapons as well.
Biden / Harris Watch –
WH press and their willing accomplices in the MSM continue to try to spin biden’s dementia episodes of late into fake reports and videos.
Illegal Immigration –
Lawsuits already engaged against biden’s essentially an amnesty for illegals ‘married’ to citizens.
China –
A Chinese missile submarine came to the surface near Taiwan recently and was escorted away by Chinese naval vessels.
Some are inferring it to be an overall display of force, but in most instances when a sub surfaces like this it is due to a serious mechanical problem.
though not noted every day here, China continues to intrude on Taiwan’s air and sea boundaries with varying numbers of ships and planes.
North/South Korea –
Russia and North Korea have signed a deal to help each other in the event of aggression against them, Putin says.
Kim Jong Un has said he fully supports Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as Putin visits North Korea after 24 years
Russia -
Following his visit to North Korea, Putin will visit long-time ally Vietnam, where he is expected to discuss trade.
OBSERVATION - Putin’s trip shows his weakness in a way vs China. He knows China will extract its will against Russia eventually if he continues to seek their help in the war against Ukraine. NK is more than happy to see Russian money come into its coffers as well as new technology has Kim works to build up his forces against a superior SK / US coalition. Vietnam in particular, as a regional enemy of China who kicked their rear end in a post Vietnam war era scrum.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 19 Shahed UAVs overnight. One drone managed to hit the the Scientific Research Institute in Lviv. Another hit a residential area in Lviv.
Outlook —
The grind continues, with Ukraine gaining tactical advantage in the Kharkiv front while working hard in the Bakhmut / Chasiv Yar and Avdiivka fronts.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel approved of operational plans for combat against Hezbollah in Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Netanyahu accused the Biden administration of withholding the supply of arms to Israel. In response, the White House canceled high-level talks between American and Israeli security officials in Washington, DC
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Most of the action overnight centered in Rafah and central Gaza
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
IDF:The Commanding Officer of the Northern Command, MG Ori Gordin, and the Head of the Operations Directorate, MG Oded Basiuk, approved operational plans and held a joint situational assessment in the Northern Command earlier today. As part of the situational assessment, operational plans for an offensive in Lebanon were approved and validated, and decisions were taken on the continuation of increasing the readiness of troops in the field
***
Hezbollah on Tuesday published footage taken by a spy drone that infiltrated some 27 km (17 miles) into Israel and flew above the Haifa area for at least ten minutes without being shot down.
The high-definition footage shows sensitive areas like the Haifa port and naval base, aerial defense systems like David’s Sling and Iron Dome, the Rafael defense company’s factory, as well as civilian areas.
The Israel Defense Forces said its systems were tracking the small “Hudhud”-type drone the whole way but decided not to shoot it down as it didn’t pose a threat, while an interception could cause shrapnel that would endanger many civilians in the Haifa metropolitan area.
https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/hezbollah-spy-drone/2024/06/19/id/1169289/
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Syria - this morning Israeli drones carried out airstrikes on 2 military sites in Daraa & Quneitra province.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
British military says bulk carrier Tutor sinks after attack by Yemen’s Houthi rebels believed to have killed 1 on board.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Evidence continues to build that Israel is positioning itself to launch its full scale operation against Hezbollah sooner rather than later. The rumored August window remains a possible target for operations to kick off.
Israel continues to hit Hezbollah targets in S Lebanon hard, and these targets appear not to be ones directly involved with Hezbollah attacks into N Israel. The conclusion being that Israel is softening up Hezbollah, stepping them of ammo supply, command and control capabilities. Parallel with this is the steady increasing use of drones to conduct pin point attacks on Hezbollah leadership. The intelligence requirements and timeliness for such now almost daily hits is incredible and Hezbollah has some serious OPSEC problems.
The Gaza fight is leveling out again. Estimates on the completion of the Rafah phase is set at 2 - 3 weeks. IDF finding tunnel access points all over the place, more than expected. Reports that Hamas is attempting to disengage its fighters to blend into refugees in order to reform in central and northern Gaza seem reasonable given Hamas tactics. This sets up opportunities for IDF to nail these groups as they rebound -most times in the middle of refugee camps.
Houthi stepping up attacks and it appears that they are receiving targeting support from Iranian naval vessels, with the most recent successful attack backed by an Iranian vessel located very close to the hit cargo ship.
Thanks for your reports, Godzilla. See you next week.
That makes sense... enjoy your time off Godzilla...
Ok, back for a while and boy things were busy. Here are some of the key highlights during my time off.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
JUN 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Hamas supporters from a group called “Palestine Action US” are calling on their radical Muslim and Leftist supporters to “STOP THE DEBATE” between Joe Biden and President Trump that is scheduled to take place on Thursday, June 27th in Atlanta, Georgia.
***
Hamas supporters attacked a synagogue in an LA suburb yesterday, being stopped by LAPD. Jewish counter protestors rushed to the scene and drove the Hamas/Antifa hybrid protestors away, causing the Antifa elements to cry to the cops for protection.
OBSERVATION - I expect increasing direct attacks against the Jewish community by pro-Hamas elements melded with Antifa elements. This weekend’s action is of particular note that the area has a high percentage of Jewish residents, indicating that the pro-hamas crowd may be gaining some degree of confidence in their tactics of intimidation. OTOH, the response of the Jewish residents may be a harbinger of a change into “roof top korean” mode to deter further violent incursions.
***
Documents from a Biden Administration “Homeland Intelligence Experts” group profiles members of the military, religious Americans and supporters of former President as likely violent domestic terror threats.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) documents were obtained by American First Legal (AFL) through its lawsuit that caused the intelligence group to be disbanded.
According to an AFL report released Friday, the documents show “how the Biden Administration classifies someone as a person likely to commit ‘domestic violent extremist’ attacks, particularly those who support President Trump, are ‘in the military,’ or are ‘religious.’”
“[W]e should be more worried about these,” the group says, going on the discuss how “most of the Domestic Terrorism threat now comes from supporters of the former president” (Trump supporters).
Being a person of faith, a Trump supporter or a member of the military are “indicators of extremists and terrorism,” the DHS intelligence group claims, without citing and documentation of its claim.
However, “Military personnel are less likely to be supporters of radical political causes than other Americans,” The Daily Caller reports, citing a 2023 RAND Corporation study.
“The Biden Administration sees America-first patriots like us as domestic TERRORISTS. Let that sink in,” Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) wrote on social media, responding to AFL’s findings.
OBSERVATION - Many have been reporting that DHS has been targeting citizens under these criteria for several years now, and I’ve been posting such here. This revelation now places it clearly out of the realm of conspiracy theories into fact. The extent of the number of people that would be tagged as terrorist is astounding. Worst level potential is a massive move to try to round up/arrest as many as possible in the short time before the election. Under current conditions, such an operation wouldn’t be feasible. However, if the regime conducts some sort of false flag operation to generate a ‘reason’, then bar the doors katie.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Terrorism experts are warning that the red lights are flashing and the potential for a terrorist attack are extremely high. A key point made is that it only took 19 terrorists to execute 9/11 and (tens of) thousands have likely crossed the border in the past few years.
Economy-
Economists are going back and forth over the most recent data, some declaring a ‘soft’ landing, while others suggest we’ve entered a recession bound to be a depression.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) has departed the Red Sea while USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71), currently in the Pacific, will leave for the Middle East to continue a U.S. presence mission in the region, USNI News has learned.
“[The] Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group departed the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility today and will remain briefly in the U.S. European Command area of responsibility before returning home after more than seven months deployed in support of U.S. regional deterrence and force protection efforts, reads a Saturday statement from Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder.
“Next week, the TR CSG will depart the Indo-Pacific for the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. The United States will continue to maintain a robust presence in the Indo-Pacific region to strengthen peace, stability, and deterrence alongside allies and partners.”
It’s unclear how long Roosevelt, which deployed in January, will need to stay on station before it’s relieved by the next carrier slated to operate in the region. The next carrier on the East Coast preparing to leave is USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75), which is still early in its workups ahead of a deployment later this summer, USNI News understands.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Jun 27 - first debate
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
On Saturday, former Trump official Kash Patel joined Steve Bannon on The War Room to discuss his latest blockbuster report on Paul Ryan.
According to Kash Patel, Paul Ryan was the first to receive a copy of the bogus Steele Dossier back in 2016. And Paul Ryan hid this from investigators, his Republican colleagues, and Trump officials.
Kash Patel posted this on Truth Social on Thursday.
Kash Patel: Paul Ryan as Speaker of the House had in his possession the Steele Dossier before he had [Devin Nunes] and I launch Russia Gate Investigation, and never told us(think, before anyone knew anything about fake intel, he had his own copy). I found it on my own then blew up FBI/DOJ. Why didnt he tell his own damn team? Report that fake news.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/06/huge-kash-patel-drops-bomb-british-court-reveals/
OBSERVATION - As if we need more to hate Ryan over, this is just way over the top. He actively participated in a massive hoax in order to leverage against Trump and in turn, screw the American people massively.
***
RUMINT - Some far-right elements are reportedly attempting to pian an anti-trump actions at the RNC convention in opposition of suspected VP choice by Trump. Political observers are noting that such an effort is currently small and has very little chance of success,.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden has been squirreled away at Camp David allegedly preparing for his debate with Trump. Given his diminished performance in Europe a week ago, many are wondering just what is the purpose of his calling for early debates. Under his current mental conditions, he will be hard pressed to remember his key points without a teleprompter. Some rumors are that they are hoping he will melt down, justifying a last minute switch in presidential candidates away from the growingly unpopular biden and onto a fresher face. The leading theory will see Newscum replacing biden for the presidential run, with Harris getting the shift over to be the next kalifornian governor. VP slot may be picked up by hillary.
ADDITIONAL - With his greatly diminished performance in Europe it remains to see just what state of mind and body biden will be in this Thursday.
Illegal Immigration –
More than 241,000 people were apprehended after illegally entering the U.S. in May, according to newly released data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
May’s numbers push the total number of apprehensions and encounters of illegal border crossers to more than 2.2 million in the first eight months of fiscal 2024.
Last month, the majority of illegal entries occurred at the southwest border of 170,723.
China –
Chinese Coast Guard seized ships of a Philippine Navy resupply mission that was underway near the Second Thomas Shoal. The Armed Forces of the Philippines revealed pictures of the Monday confrontation in a social media post, calling the attack “coercive, aggressive, and barbaric.”
Videos show the resupply mission turning to blows as China became involved. In one clip, Chinese sailors could be seen waving and swinging axes, machetes and other melee weapons as the boats closed in to become a chaotic mass.
Chinese forces were able to seize two of the supply boats, stripping them of multiple M4 rifles as well as equipment and supplies.
Although the boats were recovered by Philippine forces, the vessels were left severely damaged. Manila is now demanding the return of seized equipment and weaponry.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/06/pacific-edge-war-chinese-naval-forces-board-seize/
OBSERVATION - The increasingly aggressive Chinese forces may push things into a shooting conflict at the Second Thomas Shoal. This would trigger numerous defense pacts by many nations - including the US - with the Philippines and an escalation of the conflict.
Phillipines –
See China above
Russia -
Attacks on police posts, churches and a synagogue in Russia’s North Caucasus republic of Dagestan have left 19 police officers and several civilians dead. Six gunmen were also killed.
At least sixteen people were taken to hospitals with injuries.
Three days of mourning have been declared in Dagestan, a predominantly Muslim republic in southern Russia which neighbors Chechnya.
The apparently coordinated attacks targeted the cities of Derbent and Makhachkala on the Orthodox festival of Pentecost, with an Orthodox priest among those killed. Islamic terrorists likely affiliated with ISIS. The Islamists lost at least 4 combatants. 2 of the IS terrorists were allegedly sons of an official of the local administration.
OBSERVATION - This would be another in a series of ISIS based attacks on Russia. With Russian military presence shifted to Ukraine, islamic terrorists apparently see a window of opportunity to strike Russia.
Logistics –
Since early 2022 Russia has lost 562 military aircraft, with 415 of them destroyed and 147 captured on the ground by Ukrainian troops early in the war. In addition Russia has lost over 300 helicopters, most of them early in the war. The heavy helicopter losses prompted Russia to rarely use helicopters inside Ukraine. Most of the combat aircraft lost have been the two seat 39-ton, twin engine Su-34s and single seat 34-ton, twin engine Su-35s. The more expensive Su-34s and Su-35s have been built in small numbers, about 260 aircraft altogether. These aircraft are expensive and time consuming to build. The economic sanctions imposed on Russia after the 2022 invasion, slowed but did not stop construction of Su-34’s and Su-35’s. Russia still had several hundred 15-ton, twin engine MiG-29s when the Ukraine war started in 2022.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/202406230357.aspx
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70 - 80s and fair.
RUMINT –
90 thousand Russians were preparing for a new offensive against Ukraine.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – More like a multi-day roundup
Ukraine on Saturday said Russia had launched a “massive” overnight attack on energy infrastructure in the country’s west and south. “Equipment at (operator) Ukrenergo facilities in Zaporizhzhia and Lviv regions was damaged,” the energy ministry said, adding that two employees were wounded and hospitalized in Zaporizhzhia.
ATACMS strikes reportedly took out Russia’s Space Tracking and Communication Center (NIP-16) in occupied Crimea.
Russia claims US responsible for deaths of civilian vacationers in Crimea, and the beach area directly targeted by ATACMS. However, missile debris has been identified as belonging to the Russian 9M330 air defense missile launched by the Tor-M2 platform, not ATACMS as the fascists falsely claimed.
Local residents and OSINT analysts suggest that the the Russian 40th command and measurement complex, military unit 81415 near Vitino in occupied Crimea was attacked.
Ukraine deleting a Russian Rifle Regiment headquarter in the Belgorod region of Russia
For the first time, Russia launched four Kalibr missiles at Ukraine from the Sea of Azov instead of the Black Sea. The Ukrainian Navy noted this as a significant shift, indicating that Russia now perceives the Sea of Azov as a safer launching area.
Russian forces press offensive in the Svatove region.
Ocheretyne -
Russian forces continue to press Ukraine defense along this front.
Kharkiv Front -
Russia began withdrawing a number of units from near Vovchansk due to the loss of their combat capability. The withdrawal of troops was recorded near Lyptsi and Tykhe”. Ukraine forces quickly retook territory upon their withdrawal. Rumors from both Ukraine and Russian sources suggest that the Russian forces in this region are on the verge of a larger collapse.
Outlook —
Ukraine’s deep warfare against Russia continues to pile up the hits. With numerous oil facilities hit as well, these strikes on high level targets in Crimea and Belgorod are throwing serious wrenches into the support to the waning offensive in Ukraine.
Renewed Ukraine artillery power has been devastating Russian assaults across the eastern front. Evidenced by the potential impending collapse of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region.
These strategic strikes are also stripping Russian of its air defense cover and more and more S300 and S400 batteries go up in a puff of smoke. This only increases the success of Ukraine drones striking deep into Russia.
Reports that Russia has been pulling more and more forces out of key bases around its periphery to throw into the conflict. Add to it the reports that more and more of the tanks being shipped to the front are T54/55 vintage indicates they are scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Ukraine may be looking at the southern fronts for movements of more Russian forces to the eastern front. A potential opening for Ukraine to push towards Crimea again.
Politics between Ukraine and DC over just how deep Ukraine can use the long range ATACMS into Russia will be continuing. With the preverbal camel nose under the tent, Ukraine is pushing to justify striking Russian airbases within range of the missiles and they may well eventually win on that argument.
Bottom line is the situation is dynamic but Ukraine seems to be taking over the initiative both on the ground and in the deep game.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Lebanese officials scramble to belay fears over Hezbollah ammo stockpiles at Beruit airport.
- Initial stages of evacuations by various countries of citizens from Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Netanyahu says once intense phase of fighting ends in Gaza, it will allow deployment of more forces to northern border with Lebanon- Reuters
Netanyahu: We are not ready for a Palestinian state, & we will not allow the Palestinian Authority to rule Gaza. Reestablishing Israeli settlements in Gaza is not realistic. We will administer Gaza for a time & then maybe pass to tribal control
Mohamed Salah, an official in Hamas’ weapons development and production projects, was killed in a raid yesterday in Gaza
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
A series of successive Israeli raids west of Gaza City were reported overnight.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The first *clear* sign of all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah may be the partial/total evacuation of foreign embassies. Countries are also reportedly urging citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible and are organizing efforts to evacuate them.
Additional reports of armor and tanks being moved towards potential staging areas in N Israel.
***
France told members of the Lebanese government that it is ready to support the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) if they are deployed to secure the southern border with Israel and push Hezbollah away from the area.
Discussions are ongoing to increase LAF presence in southern Lebanon to try and avoid an Israeli invasion.
OBSERVATION - This would be a renewal the Lebanese civil war. However, much on this subject is RUMINT at the present.
***
Lebanon is panicking from the news in the world media about the weapons stockpiles at the airport in Beirut. In one hour, all the heads of state, including Nasrallah, went on the air and denied it. Officials said that if Israel attacks the airport while the stockpile of weapons was on site, it could destroy Beirut.
Hezbollah stores large quantities of Iranian weapons including missiles & explosives at Beirut international airport, Telegraph reports; arms shipped on direct flights from Iran, airport source says.
OBSERVATION - This rumor is entirely plausible and highly probable. Following the tactic also used by Hamas, storing war materials in ‘protected’ civilian areas is being used elsewhere. The thought being that Beirut being far enough away from the potential war in S Lebanon that those supplies would be safe. Hezbollah’s scramble to disperse these munitions will lead Israeli intelligence to other stockpiles - and addition to target sets.
***
Senior Israeli Officials have reportedly stated during meetings in Washington, that if full-scale war with Hezbollah does occur they may be forced to utilized weapons that they have never used before to halt the launch of missiles and rockets towards Israel.
***
Reports of intense Israeli air and artillery bombardments of S Lebanon overnight.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Dozens of security police actions across the West Bank rounding up Hamas and affiliated terrorists and supporters.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi have reestablished a more aggressive operation in the Red Sea region, hitting and seriously damaging several ships over the past week.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Evidence continues to build that Israel is positioning itself to launch its full scale operation against Hezbollah sooner rather than later. Israel appears to be switching gears in Gaza and actions towards Hezbollah are growing. It is anticipated that the high tempo fishing in Gaza will continue for at least two more weeks. As indicated by Netanyahu, those forces will be shifted northward. August is still looking to be a high probably window for operations to begin, though Israel could strike sooner to keep Hezbollah off balance and generate surprise.
i’m also paying attention for the mobilization of additional Israeli reserves to the Lebanon operation.
Israel’s warning of using previously unused weapons against Hezbollah has gotten some interesting notice. Some are thinking that Israel has some sort of a non-nuclear EMP weapon that could fry the launch systems. Others think Israel may use surface to surface ballistic missiles or submarine launched cruise missiles. Others think Israel is messing with the heads of Hezbollah and doesn’t have any secret weapons. In respect to Israel, I wouldn’t write it off too fast.
Many have warned that the Lebanon fight will turn the nation into another Gaza. This is not entire correct. Gaza is a high density urban environment whereas southern Lebanon is more open terrain. If Israel targets Hezbollah facilities in and around Beruit, then some comparisons could be made.
Just a quick swag on how Israel may pursue the war. I think the strongest push will be the eastern most section of Lebanon north of the Golan Heights. Here the instance to the Litani River is the shortest and pushing Hezbollah back would also provide more protection for strategic Israeli early warning system in the Golan. This is also where some of the heaviest ground fighting has been occurring. Another axis could be an Israeli run up the coast line that swings east to meet up with another thrust from the south central area. Again, this is very speculative on my part and I’ve not seen any OSINT or govt released plans on the conduct of the war.