Ok, back for a while and boy things were busy. Here are some of the key highlights during my time off.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
JUN 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Hamas supporters from a group called “Palestine Action US” are calling on their radical Muslim and Leftist supporters to “STOP THE DEBATE” between Joe Biden and President Trump that is scheduled to take place on Thursday, June 27th in Atlanta, Georgia.
***
Hamas supporters attacked a synagogue in an LA suburb yesterday, being stopped by LAPD. Jewish counter protestors rushed to the scene and drove the Hamas/Antifa hybrid protestors away, causing the Antifa elements to cry to the cops for protection.
OBSERVATION - I expect increasing direct attacks against the Jewish community by pro-Hamas elements melded with Antifa elements. This weekend’s action is of particular note that the area has a high percentage of Jewish residents, indicating that the pro-hamas crowd may be gaining some degree of confidence in their tactics of intimidation. OTOH, the response of the Jewish residents may be a harbinger of a change into “roof top korean” mode to deter further violent incursions.
***
Documents from a Biden Administration “Homeland Intelligence Experts” group profiles members of the military, religious Americans and supporters of former President as likely violent domestic terror threats.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) documents were obtained by American First Legal (AFL) through its lawsuit that caused the intelligence group to be disbanded.
According to an AFL report released Friday, the documents show “how the Biden Administration classifies someone as a person likely to commit ‘domestic violent extremist’ attacks, particularly those who support President Trump, are ‘in the military,’ or are ‘religious.’”
“[W]e should be more worried about these,” the group says, going on the discuss how “most of the Domestic Terrorism threat now comes from supporters of the former president” (Trump supporters).
Being a person of faith, a Trump supporter or a member of the military are “indicators of extremists and terrorism,” the DHS intelligence group claims, without citing and documentation of its claim.
However, “Military personnel are less likely to be supporters of radical political causes than other Americans,” The Daily Caller reports, citing a 2023 RAND Corporation study.
“The Biden Administration sees America-first patriots like us as domestic TERRORISTS. Let that sink in,” Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.) wrote on social media, responding to AFL’s findings.
OBSERVATION - Many have been reporting that DHS has been targeting citizens under these criteria for several years now, and I’ve been posting such here. This revelation now places it clearly out of the realm of conspiracy theories into fact. The extent of the number of people that would be tagged as terrorist is astounding. Worst level potential is a massive move to try to round up/arrest as many as possible in the short time before the election. Under current conditions, such an operation wouldn’t be feasible. However, if the regime conducts some sort of false flag operation to generate a ‘reason’, then bar the doors katie.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
Terrorism experts are warning that the red lights are flashing and the potential for a terrorist attack are extremely high. A key point made is that it only took 19 terrorists to execute 9/11 and (tens of) thousands have likely crossed the border in the past few years.
Economy-
Economists are going back and forth over the most recent data, some declaring a ‘soft’ landing, while others suggest we’ve entered a recession bound to be a depression.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Aircraft carrier USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (CVN-69) has departed the Red Sea while USS Theodore Roosevelt (CVN-71), currently in the Pacific, will leave for the Middle East to continue a U.S. presence mission in the region, USNI News has learned.
“[The] Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group departed the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility today and will remain briefly in the U.S. European Command area of responsibility before returning home after more than seven months deployed in support of U.S. regional deterrence and force protection efforts, reads a Saturday statement from Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder.
“Next week, the TR CSG will depart the Indo-Pacific for the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility. The United States will continue to maintain a robust presence in the Indo-Pacific region to strengthen peace, stability, and deterrence alongside allies and partners.”
It’s unclear how long Roosevelt, which deployed in January, will need to stay on station before it’s relieved by the next carrier slated to operate in the region. The next carrier on the East Coast preparing to leave is USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75), which is still early in its workups ahead of a deployment later this summer, USNI News understands.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Jun 27 - first debate
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
On Saturday, former Trump official Kash Patel joined Steve Bannon on The War Room to discuss his latest blockbuster report on Paul Ryan.
According to Kash Patel, Paul Ryan was the first to receive a copy of the bogus Steele Dossier back in 2016. And Paul Ryan hid this from investigators, his Republican colleagues, and Trump officials.
Kash Patel posted this on Truth Social on Thursday.
Kash Patel: Paul Ryan as Speaker of the House had in his possession the Steele Dossier before he had [Devin Nunes] and I launch Russia Gate Investigation, and never told us(think, before anyone knew anything about fake intel, he had his own copy). I found it on my own then blew up FBI/DOJ. Why didnt he tell his own damn team? Report that fake news.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/06/huge-kash-patel-drops-bomb-british-court-reveals/
OBSERVATION - As if we need more to hate Ryan over, this is just way over the top. He actively participated in a massive hoax in order to leverage against Trump and in turn, screw the American people massively.
***
RUMINT - Some far-right elements are reportedly attempting to pian an anti-trump actions at the RNC convention in opposition of suspected VP choice by Trump. Political observers are noting that such an effort is currently small and has very little chance of success,.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Biden has been squirreled away at Camp David allegedly preparing for his debate with Trump. Given his diminished performance in Europe a week ago, many are wondering just what is the purpose of his calling for early debates. Under his current mental conditions, he will be hard pressed to remember his key points without a teleprompter. Some rumors are that they are hoping he will melt down, justifying a last minute switch in presidential candidates away from the growingly unpopular biden and onto a fresher face. The leading theory will see Newscum replacing biden for the presidential run, with Harris getting the shift over to be the next kalifornian governor. VP slot may be picked up by hillary.
ADDITIONAL - With his greatly diminished performance in Europe it remains to see just what state of mind and body biden will be in this Thursday.
Illegal Immigration –
More than 241,000 people were apprehended after illegally entering the U.S. in May, according to newly released data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
May’s numbers push the total number of apprehensions and encounters of illegal border crossers to more than 2.2 million in the first eight months of fiscal 2024.
Last month, the majority of illegal entries occurred at the southwest border of 170,723.
China –
Chinese Coast Guard seized ships of a Philippine Navy resupply mission that was underway near the Second Thomas Shoal. The Armed Forces of the Philippines revealed pictures of the Monday confrontation in a social media post, calling the attack “coercive, aggressive, and barbaric.”
Videos show the resupply mission turning to blows as China became involved. In one clip, Chinese sailors could be seen waving and swinging axes, machetes and other melee weapons as the boats closed in to become a chaotic mass.
Chinese forces were able to seize two of the supply boats, stripping them of multiple M4 rifles as well as equipment and supplies.
Although the boats were recovered by Philippine forces, the vessels were left severely damaged. Manila is now demanding the return of seized equipment and weaponry.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/06/pacific-edge-war-chinese-naval-forces-board-seize/
OBSERVATION - The increasingly aggressive Chinese forces may push things into a shooting conflict at the Second Thomas Shoal. This would trigger numerous defense pacts by many nations - including the US - with the Philippines and an escalation of the conflict.
Phillipines –
See China above
Russia -
Attacks on police posts, churches and a synagogue in Russia’s North Caucasus republic of Dagestan have left 19 police officers and several civilians dead. Six gunmen were also killed.
At least sixteen people were taken to hospitals with injuries.
Three days of mourning have been declared in Dagestan, a predominantly Muslim republic in southern Russia which neighbors Chechnya.
The apparently coordinated attacks targeted the cities of Derbent and Makhachkala on the Orthodox festival of Pentecost, with an Orthodox priest among those killed. Islamic terrorists likely affiliated with ISIS. The Islamists lost at least 4 combatants. 2 of the IS terrorists were allegedly sons of an official of the local administration.
OBSERVATION - This would be another in a series of ISIS based attacks on Russia. With Russian military presence shifted to Ukraine, islamic terrorists apparently see a window of opportunity to strike Russia.
Logistics –
Since early 2022 Russia has lost 562 military aircraft, with 415 of them destroyed and 147 captured on the ground by Ukrainian troops early in the war. In addition Russia has lost over 300 helicopters, most of them early in the war. The heavy helicopter losses prompted Russia to rarely use helicopters inside Ukraine. Most of the combat aircraft lost have been the two seat 39-ton, twin engine Su-34s and single seat 34-ton, twin engine Su-35s. The more expensive Su-34s and Su-35s have been built in small numbers, about 260 aircraft altogether. These aircraft are expensive and time consuming to build. The economic sanctions imposed on Russia after the 2022 invasion, slowed but did not stop construction of Su-34’s and Su-35’s. Russia still had several hundred 15-ton, twin engine MiG-29s when the Ukraine war started in 2022.
https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/202406230357.aspx
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70 - 80s and fair.
RUMINT –
90 thousand Russians were preparing for a new offensive against Ukraine.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – More like a multi-day roundup
Ukraine on Saturday said Russia had launched a “massive” overnight attack on energy infrastructure in the country’s west and south. “Equipment at (operator) Ukrenergo facilities in Zaporizhzhia and Lviv regions was damaged,” the energy ministry said, adding that two employees were wounded and hospitalized in Zaporizhzhia.
ATACMS strikes reportedly took out Russia’s Space Tracking and Communication Center (NIP-16) in occupied Crimea.
Russia claims US responsible for deaths of civilian vacationers in Crimea, and the beach area directly targeted by ATACMS. However, missile debris has been identified as belonging to the Russian 9M330 air defense missile launched by the Tor-M2 platform, not ATACMS as the fascists falsely claimed.
Local residents and OSINT analysts suggest that the the Russian 40th command and measurement complex, military unit 81415 near Vitino in occupied Crimea was attacked.
Ukraine deleting a Russian Rifle Regiment headquarter in the Belgorod region of Russia
For the first time, Russia launched four Kalibr missiles at Ukraine from the Sea of Azov instead of the Black Sea. The Ukrainian Navy noted this as a significant shift, indicating that Russia now perceives the Sea of Azov as a safer launching area.
Russian forces press offensive in the Svatove region.
Ocheretyne -
Russian forces continue to press Ukraine defense along this front.
Kharkiv Front -
Russia began withdrawing a number of units from near Vovchansk due to the loss of their combat capability. The withdrawal of troops was recorded near Lyptsi and Tykhe”. Ukraine forces quickly retook territory upon their withdrawal. Rumors from both Ukraine and Russian sources suggest that the Russian forces in this region are on the verge of a larger collapse.
Outlook —
Ukraine’s deep warfare against Russia continues to pile up the hits. With numerous oil facilities hit as well, these strikes on high level targets in Crimea and Belgorod are throwing serious wrenches into the support to the waning offensive in Ukraine.
Renewed Ukraine artillery power has been devastating Russian assaults across the eastern front. Evidenced by the potential impending collapse of Russian forces in the Kharkiv region.
These strategic strikes are also stripping Russian of its air defense cover and more and more S300 and S400 batteries go up in a puff of smoke. This only increases the success of Ukraine drones striking deep into Russia.
Reports that Russia has been pulling more and more forces out of key bases around its periphery to throw into the conflict. Add to it the reports that more and more of the tanks being shipped to the front are T54/55 vintage indicates they are scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Ukraine may be looking at the southern fronts for movements of more Russian forces to the eastern front. A potential opening for Ukraine to push towards Crimea again.
Politics between Ukraine and DC over just how deep Ukraine can use the long range ATACMS into Russia will be continuing. With the preverbal camel nose under the tent, Ukraine is pushing to justify striking Russian airbases within range of the missiles and they may well eventually win on that argument.
Bottom line is the situation is dynamic but Ukraine seems to be taking over the initiative both on the ground and in the deep game.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Lebanese officials scramble to belay fears over Hezbollah ammo stockpiles at Beruit airport.
- Initial stages of evacuations by various countries of citizens from Lebanon.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Netanyahu says once intense phase of fighting ends in Gaza, it will allow deployment of more forces to northern border with Lebanon- Reuters
Netanyahu: We are not ready for a Palestinian state, & we will not allow the Palestinian Authority to rule Gaza. Reestablishing Israeli settlements in Gaza is not realistic. We will administer Gaza for a time & then maybe pass to tribal control
Mohamed Salah, an official in Hamas’ weapons development and production projects, was killed in a raid yesterday in Gaza
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
A series of successive Israeli raids west of Gaza City were reported overnight.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The first *clear* sign of all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah may be the partial/total evacuation of foreign embassies. Countries are also reportedly urging citizens to leave Lebanon as soon as possible and are organizing efforts to evacuate them.
Additional reports of armor and tanks being moved towards potential staging areas in N Israel.
***
France told members of the Lebanese government that it is ready to support the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) if they are deployed to secure the southern border with Israel and push Hezbollah away from the area.
Discussions are ongoing to increase LAF presence in southern Lebanon to try and avoid an Israeli invasion.
OBSERVATION - This would be a renewal the Lebanese civil war. However, much on this subject is RUMINT at the present.
***
Lebanon is panicking from the news in the world media about the weapons stockpiles at the airport in Beirut. In one hour, all the heads of state, including Nasrallah, went on the air and denied it. Officials said that if Israel attacks the airport while the stockpile of weapons was on site, it could destroy Beirut.
Hezbollah stores large quantities of Iranian weapons including missiles & explosives at Beirut international airport, Telegraph reports; arms shipped on direct flights from Iran, airport source says.
OBSERVATION - This rumor is entirely plausible and highly probable. Following the tactic also used by Hamas, storing war materials in ‘protected’ civilian areas is being used elsewhere. The thought being that Beirut being far enough away from the potential war in S Lebanon that those supplies would be safe. Hezbollah’s scramble to disperse these munitions will lead Israeli intelligence to other stockpiles - and addition to target sets.
***
Senior Israeli Officials have reportedly stated during meetings in Washington, that if full-scale war with Hezbollah does occur they may be forced to utilized weapons that they have never used before to halt the launch of missiles and rockets towards Israel.
***
Reports of intense Israeli air and artillery bombardments of S Lebanon overnight.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Dozens of security police actions across the West Bank rounding up Hamas and affiliated terrorists and supporters.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi have reestablished a more aggressive operation in the Red Sea region, hitting and seriously damaging several ships over the past week.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Evidence continues to build that Israel is positioning itself to launch its full scale operation against Hezbollah sooner rather than later. Israel appears to be switching gears in Gaza and actions towards Hezbollah are growing. It is anticipated that the high tempo fishing in Gaza will continue for at least two more weeks. As indicated by Netanyahu, those forces will be shifted northward. August is still looking to be a high probably window for operations to begin, though Israel could strike sooner to keep Hezbollah off balance and generate surprise.
i’m also paying attention for the mobilization of additional Israeli reserves to the Lebanon operation.
Israel’s warning of using previously unused weapons against Hezbollah has gotten some interesting notice. Some are thinking that Israel has some sort of a non-nuclear EMP weapon that could fry the launch systems. Others think Israel may use surface to surface ballistic missiles or submarine launched cruise missiles. Others think Israel is messing with the heads of Hezbollah and doesn’t have any secret weapons. In respect to Israel, I wouldn’t write it off too fast.
Many have warned that the Lebanon fight will turn the nation into another Gaza. This is not entire correct. Gaza is a high density urban environment whereas southern Lebanon is more open terrain. If Israel targets Hezbollah facilities in and around Beruit, then some comparisons could be made.
Just a quick swag on how Israel may pursue the war. I think the strongest push will be the eastern most section of Lebanon north of the Golan Heights. Here the instance to the Litani River is the shortest and pushing Hezbollah back would also provide more protection for strategic Israeli early warning system in the Golan. This is also where some of the heaviest ground fighting has been occurring. Another axis could be an Israeli run up the coast line that swings east to meet up with another thrust from the south central area. Again, this is very speculative on my part and I’ve not seen any OSINT or govt released plans on the conduct of the war.
Hillary!™ who will promptly suicide Newscum...
The US is slow walking weapons to Israel - is the above a 'threat to go nuclear' if necessary?
Globalism / Great Reset –
Under the guise of ‘digital security’, the WEF along with other associated bedfellows has put out a paper to “address harmful content” and makes sure online age verification (“age assurance”) is enforced, while OFCOM states its mission to be establishing “online safety.”
https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Making_a_Difference_2024.pdf
This is one of many parallel efforts to nudge the world into digital ID and in particular biometric IDs. One of the apparent goals of this paper is to push for efforts to “moderating illegal or harmful content or conduct, “ i.e. censorship of opposing views under the guise of misinformation or ‘hate’ speech.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
JUN 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
(FO) Palestine Action activists are organizing a protest outside the CNN building in Atlanta, Georgia, ahead of Thursday night’s presidential debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Organizers are encouraging activists to “converge on Atlanta to end the U.S. war machine.”
Another post reads “Stop The Debate!” and “There Can Be No Election” because both Biden and Trump are pro-war, according to the post.
The protesters are scheduled to meet at Home Park at 8pm Eastern before “marching on the debate”.
OBSERVATION - The size of the response to this call to action will be telling and a harbinger of things to come for each party’s national conventions. The debate is a closed venue - no audience - so watching for any attempt to breach the doors and get to the studio hosting the debate will be critical to watch for as well.
Economy-
According to the latest Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts, cattle markets continue to tighten as feedlot inventory is about 1% lower than last year, and net feedlot placements for April were down 6% over the past year.
In a separate report, meatpackers in the northern U.S. are increasing bid prices due to tight beef supplies. Analysts say those bids will likely head higher, leading to higher consumer costs. USDA reports that overall conditions continue pointing toward declining beef supplies.
OBSERVATION - The wuhan chaos, combined with herd reductions from the drought a couple years ago are still troubling cattle supplies. Ranchers are trying to restore herds and this by necessity means reducing the numbers of cattle available for the meat market. Even here in cattle country, beef has become a luxury item. Govt pressures to reduce meat consumption in general - so save the planet from global warming - are not helping matters either.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
A previously censored paper from The Lancet has now undergone peer review and is available online.
The study, titled “A Systematic Review of Autopsy Findings in Deaths After COVID-19 Vaccination,” analyzed 325 autopsy cases and found that a staggering 73.9% of deaths were either directly due to or significantly contributed to by the COVID-19 vaccination.
The paper’s lead author, Dr. Nicolas Hulscher, faced significant opposition in bringing these findings to light. After initially being downloaded over 100,000 times, The Lancet removed the paper within 24 hours, according to Dr. William Makis.
According to The Daily Sceptic, the reason given at the time was, “This preprint has been removed by Preprints with the Lancet because the study’s conclusions are not supported by the study methodology.”
Results
We initially identified 678 studies and, after screening for our inclusion criteria, included 44 papers that contained 325 autopsy cases and one necropsy case. The mean age of death was 70.4 years.
The most implicated organ system among cases was the cardiovascular (49%), followed by hematological (17%), respiratory (11%), and multiple organ systems (7%). Three or more organ systems were affected in 21 cases.
The mean time from vaccination to death was 14.3 days. Most deaths occurred within a week from last vaccine administration.
A total of 240 deaths (73.9%) were independently adjudicated as directly due to or significantly contributed to by COVID-19 vaccination, of which the primary causes of death include sudden cardiac death (35%), pulmonary embolism (12.5%), myocardial infarction (12%), VITT (7.9%), myocarditis (7.1%), multisystem inflammatory syndrome (4.6%), and cerebral hemorrhage (3.8%).
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/06/lancet-journal-study-finds-73-9-deaths-following/
OBSERVATION - More fuel to the fire, as linkage of deaths to the jab have been at the forefront of many studies over the past year - pushing past the censors. But you probably not see this on any MSM news outlet.
BTW, evidence is coming out that the VAERS COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports database is being skewed to reflect fewer wuhan jab related deaths.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Jun 27 - first debate
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
In an uncommon move, the Supreme Court has just opted to extent their current term into July. The reason for this is so that SCOTUS can wrap up work on around a dozen important cases — including President Trump’s immunity case and major rulings on federal agency power, abortion, social media censorship, gun rights, and J6.
***
According to the survey by Rasmussen Reports, Trump leads a national contest with 50 percent of the vote compared to Newsom‘s 38 percent. Additionally, the California governor only registers a 35 percent approval rating—with 45 percent of respondents saying they hold an unfavorable view of Newsom. Former President Trump leads the California Democrat across several key voter demographics, capturing 44 percent of female voters to Newsom’s 43 percent. Additionally, Trump leads with 56 percent of male voters, with Newsom at just 33 percent. Among Hispanics, Trump leads with 53 percent of the vote to Newsom’s 30 percent.
OBSERVATION - This poll is interesting in that Newscum continues to bubble to the top of the list as potential replacements for biden. The gross mismanagement of kalifornia under his leadership clings to his used car salesman personna in the eyes of the public. However, caution must me maintained when looking at these polls, but as a starter, Rasmussen in general is a little more middle of the road than others.
Illegal Immigration –
Recent rapes and murders by illegals are becoming more and more headline materials in local news papers and sources. Most of the perps have been deported multiple times or allowed unsupervised access into the country by DHS. The growth in visible crime (i.e. reported crimes by illegals) is seriously undercutting DHS and biden efforts to down play the border crisis they created.
China –
China’s lunar probe landed back on Earth, after a nearly two-month long mission.
The Chang’e-6 landed in the Inner Mongolia desert on Tuesday, carrying the first ever samples from the Moon’s unexplored far side.
China is the only country to have landed on the far side of the Moon, having done so before in 2019.
Scientists are eagerly awaiting as the samples could answer key questions about how planets are formed.
OBSERVATION - China has come a long way in its space program. Just to land an object on the moon is a significant challenge in itself, let along return to earth with moon samples. In terms of that accomplishment alone, one has to hold very serious the Chinese ICBM threat against the US and rest of the world.
Phillipines –
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. announced that he would not activate the Mutual Defense Treaty with the United States over the 17 June incident. After much public backlash, Marcos delivered a speech declaring, “Our calm and peaceful disposition should not be mistaken for acquiescence.”
OBSERVATION - China is pushing a red line here and the Philippines may soon call for help in escorting supplies to its recognized territories in the S China Sea.
Russia -
Russian sources claim the shoot down of a US Global Hawk surveillance drone that has been monitoring Crimea since the beginning of the Ukraine war . A U.S. military official says no incident has been reported over the Black Sea.
Other rumors that Russia is planning on instituting a “no fly” zone over much of the Black Sea. Russia is claiming the US drone provide real time targeting data to Ukraine during the missile strike over the weekend. Evidence shows debris from Russian ADA missiles impacted Russian beach crowds, killing and injuring a couple dozen vacationers.
***
One of Russia’s main defense electronics producers and research centers, NII Platan near Moscow, caught on fire, with staff trapped inside. According to Platan’s archived website, its components are used in all Russian fighter jets, nuclear launch munitions, S-400 air defenses and various guided munitions.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 70 - 80s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
During the night, air defense systems shot down 30 drones over Russia, the Russian Ministry of Defense reports. 29 drones were intercepted over the territory of the Belgorod region, another one - over the Voronezh region.
Emergency situation declared in Olkhovatka district of Voronezh region due to “detonations of explosive objects” as result of a drone attack. Ukrainian Military Intelligence claims drone attack at the field ammunition depot in Olkhovatka district of Voronezh region
Russia pressing ground attacks all along the front from Soledar northward. No significant gains reported.
Ukraine has claimed to have hit over 30 oil refining and related facilities in recent months. Now they have announced a modification to their Neptune surface to surface missile that extends the range to 1000 Km - enough to reach Moscow.
Outlook —
Russian threats towards the US likely will be focused on the US recon drones operating in the international waters of the Black Sea. Unarmed and unmanned, these drones would be an easy target for Russian fighters to shoot down with relatively no opposition. Earlier this year, manned SIGNINT planes from NATO nations were escorted by fighter jets, but drones like the Global Hawk operate at very high altitudes, making such fighter escorts problematical, pulse the long linger periods.
I fully expect Russia to make an attempt (likely successful) on FORTE10 (Call sign for the Global Hawk on station south of Crimea) in realization for the deaths from Russian interceptors in Crimea. Such an action is likely to provoke further pushback by NATO elements.
The Russia ground offensive will continue, but with ever decreasing effectiveness and greater reliance on “meat” assaults - especially since it is becoming apparent that APCs are in increasingly short supply and Ukraine defenses, bolstered by resupply, are back to their early deadly efficiency. With the freer use of US ATACMS, Ukraine is successfully targeting staging areas for operational reserve forces and assembly areas of new troops. Add to it the increased targeting of logistical and ammunition sites once thought by Russians to be ‘safe’ in Russia territory, the ability of the Russian war machine to effectively continue the high tempo of the ground offensive.
Ukraine OTOH, is suffering from attrition of forces from the Russian offensive on top of those from last summer’s offensive. Ukraine has been able to restore effective defensive elements, but are short handed in putting together the forces necessary for any sizable offensive in the coming months. They ave the capability to launch limited counter offensives in key regions, most prominently Kharkiv region, but lack the numbers to effectively take back ground lost in the recent Russian action.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Moldova and the EU are progressing towards Moldova entering the union. This will press Russian controlled Transnistria and increase tensions.
Belarus -
Recent military activity reflects preparation for military parades in the country. Nothing offensive in nature currently on the front burners.
Poland –
Buried by other news, Russian/Belarus efforts to channel middle eastern migrants into Poland by forcing border defenses has increased recently in tempo. Currently, Polish border fences/defenses are holding, but grown groups of middle eastern men are growing on the Belarus side. Recent attempts have almost resulted in Poland resorting to lethal methods to deter the migrants.
Europe / NATO General –
Romania to host the largest NATO airbase in Europe. Its placement is a direct in your face to putin and Russia.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- UNRWA being sued for 1 Billion dollars.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
UNRWA is being sued for a billion dollars for its support to Hamas as well as its employees activity participating with Hamas.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IAF conducted air strikes throughout most of Gaza overnight.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
A tour of Beirut airport for journalists and ambassadors arranged by Hezbollah-affiliated transport minister— said would prove that the terror group is not storing weapons on site— stopped as reporters banned from entering the main cargo area.
***
The Israeli army confirms it struck infrastructure belonging to Hezbollah’s Aerial Defense Array in the Baalbek area.
***
U.S. reportedly issues indirect warning to Hezbollah discouraging action against Israel.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
The Hamas leadership is considering relocating from Qatar, where it is currently residing, to Iraq, according to a report in The National in Monday.
The Iraqi government approved the move last month, a senior Iraqi MP disclosed in the report. Iran will allegedly assume responsibility for protecting Hamas’s leaders, offices, and personnel in Baghdad. However, according to a Ynet report, Hamas dismissed these claims, stating, “There is no truth in the reports suggesting Hamas is planning to leave Qatar and move to Iraq.”
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-807557
OBSERVATION - Qatar has been feeling the pressure over hosting the three big leaders of Hamas - all three are billionaires living the life of luxury. Hamas has repeatedly rejected Qatar’s calls for more flexibility in negotiations and a couple months ago indicated that Hamas my no longer be welcome in the country. While protected from direct Israeli attacks in Qatar, move to Bagdad will expose them to far more danger as Israel has hit targets in the country (as has the US).
——— FORECAST ————————-
Uptempo activity in Gaza is expected to continue. Most likely due to the desire to take out as much Hamas as possible to render it relatively ineffective and non-threatening to Israel so it can focus on operations against Hezbollah.
Again, the fight against Hezbollah will be different that against Hamas/Gaza, as S Lebanon is more open terrain, resulting in more ‘conventional ‘ military operations. Continued warnings of involvement by Iran and islamists rushing to Hezbollah’s aid - especially if Israel places them on the ropes. I’m sure some from Iran/Iraq/Syria will attempt the move in support, but at this stage I don’t see a massive reinforcement effort.
Hezbollah / iranian preparations for a war with Israel continues to be complicated by the loss of senior leadership. This also reflects downward the chain of command as lower level officers are also being taken out by daily Israeli strikes.
Time frame of a Hezbollah war by observers continues to be at the earliest August to Sept time frame. Only wild card is if Hezbollah attempts a spoiling attack, forcing the war to begin earlier.
Watching too the deployment of US naval assets to the eastern Med region. They may interject as they did with the Iranian missile attack in the interception of some of the drones and rockets expected to be launched by Hezbollah as well as providing a defensive layer against any attacks on Cyprus. Any direct attacks on Hezbollah ground forces is unlikely unless assets target US vessels. Watching the force buildup in the region.
Besides engagement of US naval assets in the Med, the greatest threat continues to be a potential Iranian effort to close off the Straits of Hormuz - an action made more serious due the gross depletion of the Strategic Oil Reserve by Biden. The oil card is currently the highest card Iran holds, barring sudden revelation of the creation of a nuclear weapon.
Black Swans -
Old sunspot AR3664, which caused the May 10th superstorm, has returned. This is its 3rd trip across the solar disk. Per tradition, it has been re-numbered 3 times: Originally AR3664, then AR3697, now AR3723. X-flares are possible as it once again turns to face Earth.
OBSERVATION - Monitoring because it is interesting. The prolonged center of activity this sunspot cluster has maintained is a little unusual as too its continued capability to produce X class solar flares. The May 10th solar storm was one for the books in how spectacular the aurora was, but did very little to impact the power grid. The grid did feel the effects though.
The scale of events to look for are flares in the X class 15 and higher, which are essentially an order(s) of magnitude larger than May 10th. Those definitely have potential to mess with the power grid.
And please note - the resultant “EMP” from these flares is of a different nature than those expected from an exoatmospheric nuclear blast. Solar flares affect long wave / large scale features, like those collected along power and rail road lines. Nuclear EMPs are a shorter wave (so to speak) and cold impact electronics directly with minimal antenna collection and associated application of power.