Back for a few days before out again. Kinda a summary of some of the key things I was able to catch while in the hills. The next couple of days will be more detailed before I head to the woods again.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
JUN 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Word is going out fast for another big march by pro-hamas and supporting elements on Washington in order to disrupt Netanyahu’s address of congress. The ring around the WH was big and this will likely to be huge - and many many times more violent.
Economy-
Inflation was at least three percent for the 38th straight month in May and has now been at or above that mark, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported Wednesday.
In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was up 3.3% from 12 months earlier and unchanged, on a seasonally-adjusted basis from April. The last time CPI increased less than three percent was in March of 2021 (2.6%).
At 3.3%, inflation is also more than the 1.4% growth registered when former President Donald Trump left office in January of 2021 and December of 2020.
In May of this year, the seasonally-adjusted, month-to-month increase in the so-called “core” CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% from April and 3.4% from the increase in April of 2023.
***
Saudi Arabia has kicked the petrodollar to the curb, accepting other currencies for oil purchases.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
US House of Representatives passes bill automatically registering men aged 18 to 26 for selective service, 217 to 199
Added to include women - yes, even those “identifying” as a woman.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
If one is to believe the MSM reports of presidential polls, biden’s support in general and from minorities is crumbling faster than a sand castle at high tide. Biden’s behavior at the recent fundraiser and G7 are not helping the perception any.
***
Democrats pushing the narrative that crime has dropped by over 25% under biden. What they don’t tell you is that the major crime centers - democrat run cities - are no longer reporting crime data to the FBI. To make it worse for democrats - the American people KNOW better and are rejecting the false message.
Biden / Harris Watch –
President Biden appeared to freeze up on stage and had to be led off by Barack Obama at the conclusion of a star-studded campaign fundraiser in Los Angeles Saturday night.
The awkward moment took place after Biden and his predecessor sat for a 45-minute interview with late-night host Jimmy Kimmel at the Peacock Theater.
As the men stood for applause, Biden’s gaze seemed to become fixed on the crowd for a full 10 seconds until former President Barack Obama took his wrist and led him offstage.
***
World leaders at the G7 in Italy last week reportedly expressed concern that President Biden is ‘losing focus’ and appearing ‘tired.’
Illegal Immigration –
According to Customs and Border Protection data, roughly, 30,000 Venezuelans crossed the U.S. border last year and 800,000 have tried to enter the country since 2021. The amount of illegal Venezuelans who have successfully crossed the southern border went from 50,500 in fiscal year 2021 to 334,900 in fiscal year 2023. Turns out many of these are associated with the deadly Tren de Aragua gang.
The gang is known for forcing illegal Venezuelan immigrants into sex slavery to repay smugglers who helped them cross over the border and into the U.S. illegally without detection.
Last month, Homeland Security Investigations (HSI) busted a sex trafficking scheme in Louisiana involving members from Tren de Aragua who reportedly forced Venezuelan women into sex trafficking to repay coyotes who smuggled them into the U.S.
The FBI has warned that it is possible the gang could team up with the MS-13— a deadly gang that originated in Los Angeles.
China –
China is in the midst of a “significant” expansion of its nuclear capabilities and may have as many intercontinental ballistic missiles as the United States or Russia by 2030, according to a new global analysis of nuclear weapons.
Beijing is both growing and modernizing its nuclear arsenal, according to an annual report released Sunday by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), a group that tracks global security and arms control. China’s military stockpile grew from 410 nuclear warheads last year to 500 as of January, the report found.
The expansion of China’s capabilities came as SIPRI warned that even as the total number of nuclear warheads around the world was declining as Cold War-era weapons were phased out, there were steady year-on-year increases in the number of operational warheads that could be used quickly in the event of conflict.
About 2,100 deployed nuclear warheads are being kept in a state of “high operational alert” on ballistic missiles — and while almost all belong to Russia or the United States, China is believed to have placed some warheads on this level of alert for the first time, SIPRI found.
Phillipines –
The China Coast Guard (CCG) issued a statement that a Philippine supply ship headed to the BRP Sierra Madre on the Second Thomas Shoal was driving erratically collided with a CCG vessel after the CCG issued multiple warnings and employed “control measures.”
The Philippines did not deny a collision but declared the claims as “deceptive and misleading.”
Russia -
Putin said he would end the war in Ukraine only if Kyiv agreed to drop its NATO ambitions and hand over the entirety of four provinces claimed by Moscow.
***
Russia’s naval fleet has reportedly suffered tremendous losses in Ukraine and now resorts to submarines to continue patrolling the Black Sea.
Speaking on national television, Kyiv’s Southern Defense Forces spokesperson Dmytro Pletenchuk said the invading forces have recently begun a practice where their submarines rotate in the morning.
“In the Azov-Black Sea region, they have four submarines, three of which are cruise missile carriers. Two submarines periodically go to sea,” he disclosed.
This comes as the Ukrainian military claimed to have destroyed 30 percent of Moscow’s Black Sea fleet by the end of 2023.
Earlier this year, Kyiv’s Magura V5 naval drones struck four Russian patrol boats in Crimea, completely destroying two and damaging the other two.
https://www.thedefensepost.com/2024/06/13/russia-submarines-black-sea/
NUCLEAR THREATS –
The Kremlin - Reports about NATO talks on deploying nuclear weapons indicate a dangerous escalation
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Well more like a partial week summary
Ukrainian Military intelligence drones attacked objects in Belgorod, Voronezh and Lipetsk regions, - hromadske source in Ukrainian intelligence reported. One of the targets was the Novolypetsk metallurgical plant and the local tractor plant
Issues with power supply in Rostov region after 3 explosions at local substation, likely due to Ukraine drones.
Things haven’t gone well for Russia in Vovchansk, Kharkiv front. Ukrainian forces isolated and proceeded to eliminate a force of 400-800 Russians as part of the Ukraine counter offensive in the region. Vovchansk was to be a key city to be captured by Russia and has since been turned into a death trap for them.
Ocheretyne -
Russian forced continue to press the attack with no noticeable gains of territory.
Outlook —
Ukraine is turning back a key area of the Russian efforts towards Kharkiv.
Unreported information has Russia deploying strategic bombers even further away from Ukraine, due to recent successful drone strikes. This move is evidence that Ukraine is forcing Russia to stretch its limited supply of S300 and S400 ADA systems even father, creating even more holes that Ukraine can exploit as well as progressively continue to pickoff those within range of current assets, such as in Crimea and areas of Russia adjacent to the Ukraine border.
Europe / NATO General –
The recent Swiss summit on the Ukraine war ended with no signifiant resolution. Putin taunted the gathering saying Ukraine must give up even more land in exchange for peace. Many european countries hardened their position against putin. and raised the beat of war drums even higher.
Of the 90 or so countries represented, just 84 signed the final communique affirming Ukraine’s territorial integrity and its right not to be invaded.
Saudi Arabia, India and South Africa were among those who abstained.
More critical was the absence from the entire summit of Russia’s close ally, China, despite being involved in earlier preparatory stages. Russia itself was not invited.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Netanyahu dissolves war cabinet.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Israel PM Netanyahu dissolves war cabinet after the resigning of opposition members while he will continue to make sensitive decisions in a small forum of aides
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Intense fighting continues in central Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Actions are heating up substantially.
Israel took out the #2 leader of Hezbollah. Hezbollah responded with rocket attacks.
Here’s a recap of week June 9-15:
⁃96 barrages of rockets, anti-tank missiles and explosive drones fired by Hezbollah toward northern Israeli cities, including Haïfa, Tiberias and Safed.
A barrage of rockets can include as many as 50 or 100 projectiles sent within minutes.
For example, on June 12th, 90 projectiles were fired by Hezbollah at 8:43, then 70 projectiles at 9:38. Over 215 rockets were fired toward northern Israeli cities just that day.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Alert notice on the increase in Hezbollah rocket launches on the north, combined with increasing media releases from the israeli govt nothing that operations against Hezbollah on the ground will be starting soon. The current build up does appear to be on track with a potential August timeframe. Until them, Israel will be continuing to nail key Hezbollah and Iranian leadership in Lebanon and Syria as well as hitting critical logistical, command and ammo facilities.
Misc of Note –
Very much abbreviated, but a few key things I’m noticing
- Israeli movement towards war with Hezbollah is moving more rapidly forward and the US / biden effort to undercut the Israeli govt increases.
- Much of Europe is moving to war time footing. Even countries like Germany which have been waffling are now leaning more towards war preps. Russia’s stance indicates absolutely no willingness to approach the bargaining table at all.
US is included in the movement towards war. Mandatory automatic registration moving forward as an initial step towards the renewal of the draft, made necessary by the democrats killing the volunteer army model that has worked well since Reagan. Included in this is the draft of women (sorry trans, you can’t opt out by changing your gender).
Russian provocations combined with increasing pushback from NATO members may well result in the shoot down of a Russia fighter or some other incident.
- Mental / physical collapse of biden. Because of the election - biden cannot hide from public view. In doing so, his recent appearances show he is not physically / mentally fit - beyond doubt - to continue as president. I am surprised that biden has lasted as long as he has - must be some serious drugs keeping him running but those drugs are losing their effectiveness as demonstrated by recent events.
- Finally, Saudi Arabia effectively killing the petro dollar. That has been a key feature of US economic strength with other nations using it - supporting our Fed. It is a sign of a VERY significantly loss of world recognition of the US’ global leadership in all matters. Such move, combined with the growing BRICS movement using multiple currencies to make their purchases with, places things even more difficult to execute economic sanctions on rogue nations.
This is fallout from the 'sexual weirdo' DEI 'brass' promotion movement. This drift toward insanity - along with the fake 'crime down' FBI reports - need to be part of TV ads for Trump. NOT EVERYONE KNOWS.
Compared to the peaceful stroll through the capitol building by the Jan 6 crowd who are now political prisoners.
This hypocrisy is appalling.
“An unexpected cold front is bringing a wintry mix to Montana just as summer approaches. With a Winter Storm Watch in effect, heavy snow is expected in the high elevations of the Rockies, disrupting travel and creating hazardous conditions.”
LOL, people research. Montana can and has gotten snow EVERY month of the year. I’ve seen it! There is nothing rare about this.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The World Economic Forum (WEF) has called for a “controlled demolition” of the global food system as part of a major “reinvention” of how humans consume food.
In an article posted to their website on Thursday, the WEF declared that the consumption of meat and traditional forms of farming needed to be banned in order to prevent so-called ‘global boiling‘.
In the article, titled “Feeding the future: why Renovation and Reinvention are key to saving our food system,” WEF New Frontiers of Nutrition Project Fellow Juliana Weltman Glezer sounds the alarm on the greenhouse gas emissions caused by food production and warns of a 60% increase in food demand when the worldwide population hits 10 billion.
Dailywire reports: The article then compared an overhaul of the food system to the global transition to renewable energy, such as solar and wind power and electric vehicles.
“The food transition involves a similarly comprehensive transformation, with two different stages of change: Renovation and Reinvention,” Glezer wrote. “While Renovation makes incremental improvements across the food value chain, Reinvention aims for systemic change: the fully scaled reorientation of food production in a way that alters the underlying structures within the modern food industry.”
OBSERVATION - The end goal of this ‘redesign’ is to create a global famine and reduct the population of the planet. Secondary goal is to control the remaining masses - he who controls the food, controls the people.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
JUN 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
A routine traffic stop in Queens, New York, on Wednesday morning quickly escalated into a terror investigation after police discovered a cache of weapons and unsettling messages etched on a baton inside the driver’s SUV.
According to police sources, the incident has raised concerns about the driver’s potential ties to terrorist activities, the New York Daily News reports.
The suspect, identified as 27-year-old Judd Sanson, was pulled over by officers at approximately 1:25 a.m. near the intersection of 23rd Avenue and 86th Street in East Elmhurst.
Upon searching the vehicle, a Ford Explorer, police uncovered a disturbing array of weapons, including a Glock 9mm handgun, three knives, a dagger, and eight loaded magazines.
However, it was the discovery of an expandable baton, commonly known as an asp, that bore ominous messages.
Sources revealed that the baton was etched with four chilling warnings. One message read, “You left me no choice,” while another simply stated, “I am sorry.”
A third message stated: “You are going to learn today,” and the fourth message, written in Arabic, which reportedly translates to “God forgive me.”
In addition to the weapons found inside the vehicle, sources disclosed that Sanson was also in possession of an extensive collection of concerning items.
These included body armor, handcuffs, NYPD uniform items, two axes, a stun gun, and what was described as a weighted whip. The presence of such a wide range of weapons and tactical gear has further heightened suspicions about Sanson’s intentions.
OBSERVATION - No word on any direct linkage to any terror groups, but everything points to the fact that he was on a transjectory to commit a mass murder event. Also, lack of political inclination also suggest he may be a lunatic leftie.
Biden / Harris Watch –
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Monday blamed “deepfakes” for the videos of President Joe Biden looking confused at different events recently.
“We’re seeing these deepfakes, these manipulated videos, and it is again, done in bad faith,” Jean-Pierre told reporters at the White House. During the response to the question from reporters, she also referred to the videos as “cheapfakes.”
OBSERVATION - What she didn’t say was that the WH released the videos to begin with.
Illegal Immigration –
Biden is set to announce a new policy that would protect hundreds of thousands of undocumented spouses of US citizens from deportation, according to administration officials.
The action will apply to those who have been in the country for at least 10 years and will allow them to work in the US legally.
It marks the most significant relief programme for undocumented migrants already in the US since the Obama administration announced the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or Daca, in 2012.
The White House believes more than 500,000 spouses of US citizens will benefit, in addition to 50,000 young people under 21 whose parent is married to an American citizen.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nnyr4j9w5o
OBSERVATION - This is just the start, biden will continue to press extra-legal means to grant temporary status to illegals in an all out effort to thwart any Trump mass deportation effort.
North/South Korea –
Russia’s president is on a two-day trip to North Korea, his first in 24 years. He’ll hold talks with Kim Jong Un, and most of his senior Cabinet members are part of the delegation.
Russia -
Russia’s president is on a two-day trip to North Korea, his first in 24 years. He’ll hold talks with Kim Jong Un, and most of his senior Cabinet members are part of the delegation.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 Shahed drones overnight. Explosion was reported near Odesa, reportedly Kh-59 missile was shot down
Ukrainian drones struck the port of Azov, Rostov Region, Russia, and set several oil tanks ablaze and severely damaging the facility.
Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka.
Crimean front —
Over the past two months, the Ukrainian Army has struck around 15 Russian air defense systems in the occupied Crimea.
Outlook —
Some Russian gains being noted, but as I’ve said before, the offensive has hit its high water mark.
Ukraine’s deep game against Russia forces in Crimea continues onward, creating what is developing into an air defense crisis for Russia. First it was driving the Black Sea Fleet out, now with more and more critical Russian ADA assets being liquidated, it opens up more of the territory for attack by drones and missiles. When Ukraine finally gets its pilots out of F16 training, even a small number could do a lot of damage if Russia cannot shoot back.
As noted under Belarus below, Su-30s have been moved into Belarus. I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia starts using them to attack Ukraine and stationing them there to avoid reprisal. Russia staged a large amount of its initial invasion forces in Belarus, so the president is set. If Ukraine attacked these bases, the war could quickly expand to include Belarus which could also draw Poland and Baltic nations in as well on Ukraine’s side.
Belarus -
During the past week, flights of Su-30SM fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded at Baranavichy airfield Belarus
OBSERVATION - Monitoring closely as recent Ukrainian drone attacks have hit several key Russian air bases housing this kind of modern aircraft. Russia may be switching to operating out of Belarus to protect them from Ukraine attack.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that NATO may take steps to enhance NATO’s nuclear deterrence, eliciting varying responses from senior Kremlin officials.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel reports progress on its operation in Rafah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The US President’s envoy warned the Israelis of the possibility that the war with Hezbollah would lead to a large-scale Iranian attack that would be difficult for Israel to confront.
***
Israeli negotiator says tens of Gaza hostages ‘alive with certainty’
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Most of the action overnight centered in Rafah and central Gaza
***
The IDF on Monday said that its Division 162 has defeated half of Hamas’s battalions in Rafah, including killing at least 550 terrorists, as well as destroyed around 200 tunnel shafts, and eliminated the terror group’s last major rocket inventory. (NOTE - the 550 are visually confirmed and not those suspected of being buried under rubble)
Further, the IDF said that within a couple of weeks it would likely be in control of all of Rafah and that the final battles with the remaining two Hamas battalions in parts of Tel al-Sultan and the eastern part of Shabura are already underway.
In addition, the IDF said that the tunnel network in Rafah, especially near the Philadelphi Corridor with Egypt has been found to be even more complex than those found in Khan Yunis, Jabaliya, and the military quarter of Gaza City.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-806594#google_vignette
***
The IDF took control of the NPK neighborhood, which is considered the “beating heart” of Rafah. This is a terrorist stronghold where the most complex underground features have been found since the beginning of the fighting. Hamas has set up combat compounds there, and captures houses in order to harm the forces. Also, Hamas was prepared with cameras in almost every alley and every room, as part of the preparation for encountering IDF fighters.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli military official: Hezbollah was forced to withdraw its forces 8 km into Lebanese territory
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Saudi Crown Prince: The Kingdom renews its call to the international community to recognize the independent State of Palestine on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel’s shifting focus towards Hezbollah continues. Their report that Hezbollah forces have pulled back 8 KM is interesting and would suggest that many direct fire systems, such as ATGMs have become less effective. Hard to independently confirm, but Israel has been hitting front line positions pretty hard in battlefield preparations for the Israeli ground offensive.
biden representatives to Israel continue to raise the red flag of Iranian involvement. Currently, Iran is still trying to pick up the political pieces of a new election for a president as well as looking at the failure of the missile/drone attack earlier this year on Israel - and Israel’s small, but highly effective retaliatory strike. Iran may decide to act in a different direction - closing off the Straits of Hormuz - or other closer action against US and other western interests. But that is a highly dangerous move by itself, that it may not be ready for.
Fighting in Gaza will continue to ebb and flow as Israel pulls out of selective areas to allow Hamas to attempt to reform and then counter strike.
“An unexpected cold front is bringing a wintry mix to Montana just as summer approaches. With a Winter Storm Watch in effect, heavy snow is expected in the high elevations of the Rockies, disrupting travel and creating hazardous conditions.”
LOL, people research. Montana can and has gotten snow EVERY month of the year. I’ve seen it! There is nothing rare about this.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The World Economic Forum (WEF) has called for a “controlled demolition” of the global food system as part of a major “reinvention” of how humans consume food.
In an article posted to their website on Thursday, the WEF declared that the consumption of meat and traditional forms of farming needed to be banned in order to prevent so-called ‘global boiling‘.
In the article, titled “Feeding the future: why Renovation and Reinvention are key to saving our food system,” WEF New Frontiers of Nutrition Project Fellow Juliana Weltman Glezer sounds the alarm on the greenhouse gas emissions caused by food production and warns of a 60% increase in food demand when the worldwide population hits 10 billion.
Dailywire reports: The article then compared an overhaul of the food system to the global transition to renewable energy, such as solar and wind power and electric vehicles.
“The food transition involves a similarly comprehensive transformation, with two different stages of change: Renovation and Reinvention,” Glezer wrote. “While Renovation makes incremental improvements across the food value chain, Reinvention aims for systemic change: the fully scaled reorientation of food production in a way that alters the underlying structures within the modern food industry.”
OBSERVATION - The end goal of this ‘redesign’ is to create a global famine and reduct the population of the planet. Secondary goal is to control the remaining masses - he who controls the food, controls the people.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
JUN 25 - Protest of Netanyahu’s appearance before congress.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024
A routine traffic stop in Queens, New York, on Wednesday morning quickly escalated into a terror investigation after police discovered a cache of weapons and unsettling messages etched on a baton inside the driver’s SUV.
According to police sources, the incident has raised concerns about the driver’s potential ties to terrorist activities, the New York Daily News reports.
The suspect, identified as 27-year-old Judd Sanson, was pulled over by officers at approximately 1:25 a.m. near the intersection of 23rd Avenue and 86th Street in East Elmhurst.
Upon searching the vehicle, a Ford Explorer, police uncovered a disturbing array of weapons, including a Glock 9mm handgun, three knives, a dagger, and eight loaded magazines.
However, it was the discovery of an expandable baton, commonly known as an asp, that bore ominous messages.
Sources revealed that the baton was etched with four chilling warnings. One message read, “You left me no choice,” while another simply stated, “I am sorry.”
A third message stated: “You are going to learn today,” and the fourth message, written in Arabic, which reportedly translates to “God forgive me.”
In addition to the weapons found inside the vehicle, sources disclosed that Sanson was also in possession of an extensive collection of concerning items.
These included body armor, handcuffs, NYPD uniform items, two axes, a stun gun, and what was described as a weighted whip. The presence of such a wide range of weapons and tactical gear has further heightened suspicions about Sanson’s intentions.
OBSERVATION - No word on any direct linkage to any terror groups, but everything points to the fact that he was on a transjectory to commit a mass murder event. Also, lack of political inclination also suggest he may be a lunatic leftie.
Biden / Harris Watch –
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Monday blamed “deepfakes” for the videos of President Joe Biden looking confused at different events recently.
“We’re seeing these deepfakes, these manipulated videos, and it is again, done in bad faith,” Jean-Pierre told reporters at the White House. During the response to the question from reporters, she also referred to the videos as “cheapfakes.”
OBSERVATION - What she didn’t say was that the WH released the videos to begin with.
Illegal Immigration –
Biden is set to announce a new policy that would protect hundreds of thousands of undocumented spouses of US citizens from deportation, according to administration officials.
The action will apply to those who have been in the country for at least 10 years and will allow them to work in the US legally.
It marks the most significant relief programme for undocumented migrants already in the US since the Obama administration announced the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals, or Daca, in 2012.
The White House believes more than 500,000 spouses of US citizens will benefit, in addition to 50,000 young people under 21 whose parent is married to an American citizen.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nnyr4j9w5o
OBSERVATION - This is just the start, biden will continue to press extra-legal means to grant temporary status to illegals in an all out effort to thwart any Trump mass deportation effort.
North/South Korea –
Russia’s president is on a two-day trip to North Korea, his first in 24 years. He’ll hold talks with Kim Jong Un, and most of his senior Cabinet members are part of the delegation.
Russia -
Russia’s president is on a two-day trip to North Korea, his first in 24 years. He’ll hold talks with Kim Jong Un, and most of his senior Cabinet members are part of the delegation.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 80 - 90s and fair.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 10 Shahed drones overnight. Explosion was reported near Odesa, reportedly Kh-59 missile was shot down
Ukrainian drones struck the port of Azov, Rostov Region, Russia, and set several oil tanks ablaze and severely damaging the facility.
Russian forces recently advanced near Siversk, Chasiv Yar, and Avdiivka.
Crimean front —
Over the past two months, the Ukrainian Army has struck around 15 Russian air defense systems in the occupied Crimea.
Outlook —
Some Russian gains being noted, but as I’ve said before, the offensive has hit its high water mark.
Ukraine’s deep game against Russia forces in Crimea continues onward, creating what is developing into an air defense crisis for Russia. First it was driving the Black Sea Fleet out, now with more and more critical Russian ADA assets being liquidated, it opens up more of the territory for attack by drones and missiles. When Ukraine finally gets its pilots out of F16 training, even a small number could do a lot of damage if Russia cannot shoot back.
As noted under Belarus below, Su-30s have been moved into Belarus. I wouldn’t be surprised if Russia starts using them to attack Ukraine and stationing them there to avoid reprisal. Russia staged a large amount of its initial invasion forces in Belarus, so the president is set. If Ukraine attacked these bases, the war could quickly expand to include Belarus which could also draw Poland and Baltic nations in as well on Ukraine’s side.
Belarus -
During the past week, flights of Su-30SM fighters of the Russian Aerospace Forces were recorded at Baranavichy airfield Belarus
OBSERVATION - Monitoring closely as recent Ukrainian drone attacks have hit several key Russian air bases housing this kind of modern aircraft. Russia may be switching to operating out of Belarus to protect them from Ukraine attack.
Europe / NATO General –
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that NATO may take steps to enhance NATO’s nuclear deterrence, eliciting varying responses from senior Kremlin officials.
ISRAEL –
Key overnight developments -
- Israel reports progress on its operation in Rafah.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
The US President’s envoy warned the Israelis of the possibility that the war with Hezbollah would lead to a large-scale Iranian attack that would be difficult for Israel to confront.
***
Israeli negotiator says tens of Gaza hostages ‘alive with certainty’
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Most of the action overnight centered in Rafah and central Gaza
***
The IDF on Monday said that its Division 162 has defeated half of Hamas’s battalions in Rafah, including killing at least 550 terrorists, as well as destroyed around 200 tunnel shafts, and eliminated the terror group’s last major rocket inventory. (NOTE - the 550 are visually confirmed and not those suspected of being buried under rubble)
Further, the IDF said that within a couple of weeks it would likely be in control of all of Rafah and that the final battles with the remaining two Hamas battalions in parts of Tel al-Sultan and the eastern part of Shabura are already underway.
In addition, the IDF said that the tunnel network in Rafah, especially near the Philadelphi Corridor with Egypt has been found to be even more complex than those found in Khan Yunis, Jabaliya, and the military quarter of Gaza City.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-806594#google_vignette
***
The IDF took control of the NPK neighborhood, which is considered the “beating heart” of Rafah. This is a terrorist stronghold where the most complex underground features have been found since the beginning of the fighting. Hamas has set up combat compounds there, and captures houses in order to harm the forces. Also, Hamas was prepared with cameras in almost every alley and every room, as part of the preparation for encountering IDF fighters.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israeli military official: Hezbollah was forced to withdraw its forces 8 km into Lebanese territory
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Saudi Crown Prince: The Kingdom renews its call to the international community to recognize the independent State of Palestine on the 1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel’s shifting focus towards Hezbollah continues. Their report that Hezbollah forces have pulled back 8 KM is interesting and would suggest that many direct fire systems, such as ATGMs have become less effective. Hard to independently confirm, but Israel has been hitting front line positions pretty hard in battlefield preparations for the Israeli ground offensive.
biden representatives to Israel continue to raise the red flag of Iranian involvement. Currently, Iran is still trying to pick up the political pieces of a new election for a president as well as looking at the failure of the missile/drone attack earlier this year on Israel - and Israel’s small, but highly effective retaliatory strike. Iran may decide to act in a different direction - closing off the Straits of Hormuz - or other closer action against US and other western interests. But that is a highly dangerous move by itself, that it may not be ready for.
Fighting in Gaza will continue to ebb and flow as Israel pulls out of selective areas to allow Hamas to attempt to reform and then counter strike.