Here's a little sumpin sumpin from Pookie for your amusement...
Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
People who still have their hard cover encyclopedias should consider keeping them safe...
Thanks
Tempo of craziness has dropped off a little. But don’t expect it to last long.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
*****
Trudeau’s Liberal justice minister Arif Virani says that putting Canadians under house arrest on suspicion that they may commit a hate crime in the future will “help to deradicalize people who are learning things online.”
OBSERVATION - The globalist test bed to our north tips its hand once again. The left world wide has kept the definition of ‘hate crime’ very loosely defined, granting it almost universal powers for action. Look only to here in the US as similar moves are apparently beginning to gain traction.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
An antifa group - Stop Cop City - is attempting to take their campaign nationwide. Stop Cop is known for its violence and vandalism in an attempt to stop construction of a new police facility in Atlanta.
Stop Cop City announced that they vandalized ten New York Police Department (NYPD) at a precinct in Brooklyn by puncturing vehicle tires and painting “For Tort” on the side of two NYPD buses. Stop cop city anarchists also have hit other targets in other states with vandalism as well.
OBSERVATION - Not a huge movement given the small support base trying to forward among other things defunding the police.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran and with Ramadan beginning March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of Feb 28, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
With increasing talk about Hezbollah and Israel kicking off the big one the threat of Iranian cyber attacks on US targets will increase exponentially.
Economy-
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has officially declared an end to the severe drought that disrupted barge transportation along the Mississippi River system for more than a year. Draft restrictions on vessels have been lifted, and dredges no longer operate to maintain nine-foot navigation throughout the Mississippi River. About 589 million tons of cargo transit through more than 4,000 miles of the river’s navigable channels, according to the Corps.
OBSERVATION - A lot depends upon a good snowpack in the Missouri River basin keeping the large flow control reservoirs like Ft. Peck, full of water for the summer thru spring operations.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Transcripts of hunter’s congressional testimony are out - expect all kind of analysis today. Apparently hunter confirmed that his father, Joe, was indeed “the big guy” referenced in an email pertaining to a business deal with a Chinese state-linked energy company that made the Biden family and friends millions of dollars.
***
With the announced retirement of McConnell, several republicans have announced their desire to replace him. Watch FR threads for discussions.
Senator John Cornyn (R-TX), who is not a Trump ally, has a major advantage in the race to replace McConnell due to successful fundraising efforts for the party. Cornyn would very likely continue McConnell’s pattern of resisting “America First” and populist policies.
***
The Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) agreed to take up former President Donald Trump’s motion that Trump has total immunity from charges he interfered in the 2020 election. Oral arguments are scheduled for late April, and a ruling is likely by June.
OBSERVATION - This has caused a severe melt down by the left as it torpedos Smith’s efforts to get a trial and a kangaroo court conviction before the elections.
***
The Democratic-majority U.S. Senate on Thursday approved a short-term stopgap spending bill to avert a partial government shutdown, after the Republican-controlled House of Representatives backed it with less than 36 hours before funding would have begun to run out.
The bill, which passed the Senate in a bipartisan 77-13 vote, will next go to President Joe Biden’s desk for signing into law. It will set deadlines to fund one part of the government by March 8 and the other portion by March 22.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
biden dodged questions during ‘border’ visit.
Illegal Immigration –
biden and Trump visited TX yesterday. biden to Brownsville and Trump to Eagle Pass. Border patrol agents coldly received biden and the location of brownsville only very slight impacted by the border invasion. Trump OTOH visit to one of the epicenters of the tsunami even saw him waving to illegals on the other side of the river.
***
Texas bill making illegal border crossing an arrestable state offense BLOCKED by federal judge pending appeal.
***
The Biden White House is now referring to illegal immigrants as “newcomers.” This tips the hand of democrats ultimate goal of importing millions of new democrats - essentially establishing a progressive - communistic US for decades at least.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that the West threatens nuclear war if the alliance sends troops to Ukraine.
During his State of the Union address on Thursday, Putin claimed NATO and the US are preparing to “strike Russian territory”.
He added: “They must realize that we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory. All this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilization. Don’t they get that?”
This isn’t the first time Putin has threatened nuclear war with the West in recent years as Moscow and Washington continue to clash over the war in Ukraine.
Putin also claimed that his new RS-28 Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile is ready for the Russian military to use.
RUMINT-
RUMINT. After the loss of more than a dozen combat aircraft, Russia has apparently grounded its remaining A-50 AWACs aircraft. It is reported that Russian A-50 crew members are now calling in sick. It has been nearly a week since an A-50 has been detected in the region flying a mission.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.
Surprisingly quiet overnight as compared to the past couple weeks. Russian and Ukrainian sources both confirm that Ukrainian troops have advanced west inside Krynky towards Kozachi Laheri. This move expands the Dniiper River bridgehead.
Again, the most significant fighting continues around Avdiivka and Bakhmut.
Outlook —
Notable is the prolonged absence of A-50 AWAC aircraft into the Ukraine theatre of operations. This follows substantial losses of fighter / bomber jets as well. Some discussion floating around the OSINT crowd suggest that Russia’s substantial use of these fighter / bombers to support ground operations may represent a desperate attempt to get as much gain on the ground before Ukraine gets it F-16s and potential other advanced European jets to seal off further air threats. It is obvious that Russian has changed its use, placing these aircraft into a more exposed and hostile situation, lacking suppression of ADA assets.
Now add to this the loss of AWAC coverage and combat control, making CAS even more hazardous. OS imagery of a major air base that houses the A50 show only 5 aircraft on the tarmac and a 6th without engines. Two previously occupied slots are empty - suspected aircraft that have been shot down. Don’t want to be too redundant, but the remaining 5 aircraft noted may not be flight capable - due to repair part shortages. Similar shortages have been plaguing Russian civilian airlines over the past couple months, resulting in some crashes and ground incidents. A second question is does Russia have the trained crews to even man these planes? Given Russia’s manpower challenges to support the war so far, the answer is likely to be a Yes.
Watching ground action to see if the heavy Russian losses are beginning to slow their offensive actions or not. So far it appears that Russian is beginning to repeat the failures of previous operations, but this remains to be seen.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Tensions still high, pending a Russia response to the call for aid by Transnistria.
Europe / NATO General –
Broadly, NATO is waking up to the increasing likely hood that war with Russian will reach them in the next few years and they are scrambling to prepare for it.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Gazans injured and killed in a frenzy of looting relief aid trucks.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres on Thursday said the killing of over 100 people seeking humanitarian aid in Gaza was a situation that would require an effective independent investigation.
Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari unveiled a video of drone footage showing Gazans ambushing an aid truck carrying food and getting trampled to death during the looting; ‘Dozens of Gazans were killed and injured as a result of the stampede’ “As these vital humanitarian supplies made their way toward Gazans in need, thousands of Gazans ambushed the trucks, some began violently pushing and trampling other Gazans to death, looting the humanitarian supplies,”
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
IDF continuing to encounter small pockets of Hamas who they quickly eliminate.
Battlefield preparations to enter Rafah continue.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
The Lebanese Foreign Minister: The government is consulting with Hezbollah, and the consultation is binding and does not mean there is a final decision
NOTE - the nature of this ‘consultation’ is not mentioned, but suspect it has to do with potential militarily cooperation when war starts with israel.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
A suspected Israeli attack against the Syrian city of Baniyas has killed Iranian military “advisor” Reza Zarei, a member of the IRGC’s Navy, Iran’s state-run media reported
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
The Houthi leader threatens “military surprises and unexpected actions” in the Red Sea
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations. From recent days, considerable tunnel and bunker networks are still being discovered, needing to be cleared and destroyed.
Israel continues to shape the battlefield for its eventual entry into Rafah.
Houthi come back on the radar threatening “military surprises and unexpected actions”. A warning of asymmetrical combat. Probably the most ‘unexpected’ action would be the use of Iranian produced submarine drones - hard to detect and stop. Surface drones are another possibility if they can identify cargo vessels that are away from surface combatant protection. Another possibility is the beefing up of Houthi air defense readiness. Coalition jets are convention - not stealth - and could be increasingly vulnerable to air defense actions.
Still, the only really legitimate response to the Houthi threats are to bomb the living daylights out of them and keep them having to respond by moving their elements around to avoid detection and destruction. Waiting for Houthis to resume attacks is not the correct answer.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Recently, one can see how WEF/globalist forces have morphed their efforts to force their world view on the US and world. Many of these efforts are at generally a local level that at first glance doesn’t have the appearance of a threat - only an odd situation. But when fitted into the known global goals, it becomes apparent that these actions and steps are designed to get the fall of the dominos started.
*****
The World Economic Forum (WEF) is calling on governments to ban the general public from growing their own food at home by arguing that they are causing “climate change.”
According to so-called “experts” behind a recent WEF study, researchers apparently discovered that the “carbon footprint” of home-grown food is “destroying the planet.”
As a result, the WEF and other globalist climate zealots are now demanding that governments intervene and ban individuals from growing their own food in order to “save the planet” from “global warming.”
The research indicated that resorting to garden-to-table produce causes a far greater carbon footprint than conventional agricultural practices, such as rural farms.
This research, conducted by WEF-funded scientists at the University of Michigan, was published in the journal Nature Cities.
https://slaynews.com/news/wef-pushes-ban-home-grown-food-fight-climate-change/
OBSERVATION - How much more absurd can you get - or even genocidically inclined.
***
Speaking of food -
New York Attorney General Letitia James has been selected as the tip of the spear to launch the globalists’ war on beef. This week, she filed a ludicrous lawsuit against the world’s largest beef producer, JBS USA.
“This is their opening volley but it won’t be their last,” said Jason Nelson, CEO of Prepper All-Naturals. “They’re weaponizing the climate change hoax to destroy the beef industry, thereby forcing people to choose between petri dish ‘meat,’ tofu burgers, or insect powder to get the protein we need.”
James’ lawsuit claims JBS USA is “greenwashing” by allegedly misleading the public about its environmental impact. She asserts that the company cannot possibly achieve their goal of net-zero by 2040 because they don’t have an appropriate plan in place 16 years before the deadline.
As Nelson noted, James isn’t just using this lawsuit to punish a company for ridiculous reasons. She’s also using the lawsuit as a platform from which to normalize beef price hikes and gaslight people into thinking they don’t need all-natural meat.
As her recent statement indicates, they want Americans to choose to accept the alternatives the powers-that-be are promoting. Here’s a segment of her statement, emphasis added:
“As families continue to face the daily impacts of the climate crisis, they are willing to spend more of their hard-earned money on products from brands that are better for the environment. When companies falsely advertise their commitment to sustainability, they are misleading consumers and endangering our planet.”
https://thelibertydaily.com/as-ny-ag-letitia-james-launches-globalist-war/
OBSERVATION - Letitia James is already a nefarious character for the left and now pushing the leftist/globalist agenda into a new direction of law fare.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Placing this here rather than political -
Blaze Media Investigative Journalist Steve Baker has now been taken into FBI custody for his J6 reporting. He was reportedly charged with a misdemeanor offense and agreed to voluntarily appear in court for an initial appearance - and does so - then be cuffed for transport to court and then cuffed to a belly chain in the court.
OBSERVATION - The FBI’s sudden interest in Baker appears to coincide with his recent reporting on the alleged pipe bombs ‘found’ during J6 and the inconsistencies from the FBI about it. That he was forced to perp walked and then belly chained for a misdemeanor offense is designed to be a warning to others to shut the f up about J6, an act of deliberate humiliation . Multiple other journalists from big name legacy firms like the NYT also went into the capitol building on that day - none of them have been threatened with arrest.
Yes, this is a politically driven arrest, showing that the swamp is more a communist tyrannical regime with a growing police state than America. Our govt is at war with the constitution.
***
A pair of MSNBC panelists derided “white rural voters” as ignorant, conspiracy-driven rubes who present a “threat to democracy.”
Journalist Paul Waldman and University of Maryland professor Thomas Schaller went on MSNBC Monday to promote their new book, “White Rural Rage: The Threat to American Democracy” with “Morning Joe” co-host Mika Brzezinski.
“We lay out the four-fold interconnected threat that white rural voters pose to the country,” said Schaller. “They’re the most racist, xenophobic, anti-immigrant, anti-gay geodemographic group in the country.”
“Second, they’re the most conspiracist group,” Schaller continued. “QAnon support and subscribers, election denialism, Covid denialism and scientific skepticism, Obama birtherism.”
“Third, anti-democratic sentiments,” Schaller added. “They don’t believe in an independent press, free speech. They’re most likely to say the president should be able to act unilaterally without any checks from Congress or the courts or the bureaucracy. They’re also the most strongly white nationalist and white Christian nationalist.”
Schaller kept going. “Fourth,” he said, “they are most likely to excuse or justify violence as an acceptable alternative to peaceful public discourse.”
OBSERVATION - This story has been out there for a few days, but with little time to fold it into ongoing craziness. I’ve noted time and again the process of labeling and defining US citizens on the right - and in this instance primarily residents of Red states and counties - as THE threat to the US.
If one took the time to closely look at each of the four charges these two arrogant ignoramuses with delusions of adequacy make, it is clear to the extent that the gaslighting taking place, as well as the internal view of the left. Particularly charge 4, where poll after poll has shown that democrats are the ones to see violence as an acceptable means to influence the public.
The actions of the left/swamp track very closely to the 10 stages of genocide which are -
1 Classification - People are divided into “them and us”.
2 Symbolization - When combined with hatred, symbols may be forced upon unwilling members of the pariah groups
3 Discrimination - Law or cultural power excludes groups from full civil rights.
4 Dehumanization - One group denies the humanity of the other group. Members of it are equated with animals, vermin, insects, or diseases
5 Organization - Genocide is always organized, Special army units or militias are created and trained.
6 Polarization - Extremists drive the groups apart... Leaders are arrested and murdered... laws erode fundamental civil rights and liberties.
7 Preparation - Mass killing is planned. Victims are identified and separated because of their ethnic or religious identity.
8 Persecution - Targeted group faces legal and physical action against them all condoned by the ruling govt
9 Extermination - It is ‘extermination’ to the killers because they do not believe their victims to be fully human
10 Denial - The perpetrators... deny that they committed any crimes.
Modern parallels to these 10 steps have unnerving parallels to the current situation here in the US. As the prospect of a hot CW2 scenario or WORL societal break down grows, these areas will take more and more prominence. It is this scenario that these two ‘journalists’ are feeding into on the left and MSNBC is promoting to its (few) viewers.
***
The weekend is here and with it numerous protests by pro-hamas elements calling for a Gaza ceasefire and the elimination of the nation of Israel. Violence may locally occur, probably in the form of vandalism.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran and with Ramadan beginning March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of Feb 28, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events (superbowl related attacks) or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
With increasing talk about Hezbollah and Israel kicking off the big one the threat of Iranian cyber attacks on US targets will increase exponentially.
Economy-
Just 15 percent of the Smokehouse Creek fire has been contained. This is now both the largest and most destructive fire in Texas History. It’s now the second largest in US history.
Unconfirmed reports suggest that over 80% of all of Texas cattle feed in the TX is in the impacted area. Direct cattle losses are still being tallied. In Hemphill County alone, the fire’s devastation was particularly acute, with approximately 40 homes burned and significant agricultural losses, including thousands of cattle, a critical blow to a region where more than 85% of Texas’ cattle are raised.
OBSERVATION - If the feed and cattle losses are as high as inferred, this will cause prices to spike again at the market.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
CDC is now saying to treat wuhan like the common flu.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 1 - latest CR expires
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Fulton County Superior Court Judge Scott McAfee heard closing arguments on March 1 on the motion to disqualify Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis from prosecuting the high-profile racketeering case against former President Donald Trump and 14 others.
“There are several legal issues to sort through, several factual determinations I have to make, and those aren’t ones I can make at this moment,” Judge McAfee said.
OBSERVATION - Keep in mind McAfee is a democrat judge with ties to Willis. There is a better than 50/50 chance that he will produce some sort of contorted justification to ignore the blatant actions of Willis and Wade and permit the trial to proceed. Rule of law is dying in the US.
***
It has been revealed that the Illinois judge who went against previous state rulings to yank Donald Trump off the state’s primary ballots has little background in complicated election laws or the Constitution and was a mere traffic judge before she issued her ruling.
Late last month, Cook County Circuit Court Judge Tracie R. Porter decided in all her legal wisdom to ban Donald Trump from the Illinois primary ballot because he is supposedly an “insurrectionist” under the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution, even though he has neither been convicted nor even charged with such a crime.
Porter issued her ruling in the judicial review of a case brought by five activists — Steven Anderson, Charles Holley, Jack Hickman, Ralph Cintron and Darryl Baker — who objected to Trump’s name being on the state’s ballot. The five men are members of the left-wing activist group Free Speech for People, which filed the same complaint in Michigan. Officials there ruled against removing Trump from the ballot.
https://www.westernjournal.com/judge-removed-trump-ballot-originally-working-traffic-court/
OBSERVATION - The world can see that we’ve degenerated into a banana republic. Traffic court judge - please.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
James Biden has now admitted that he paid his brother Joe $40,000 out of funds he received from CEFC China Energy, which is generally regarded as a front for the Chinese government. “Where did you believe the source of the money that was going into [Hunter Biden’s company] Owasco, prior to being sent to you, was coming from?” an investigator asked James during the Feb. 21 interview. “CEFC,” James conceded
RELATED -
Hunter Biden confirmed in congressional testimony Wednesday a key aspect of the impeachment inquiry into his father, saying President Joe Biden, while vice president in 2014 and 2015, met his business associates from Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine at a Washington, D.C., restaurant.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/hunter-biden-testimony-impeachment/2024/03/01/id/1155658/
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
A major health care technology company is still scrambling to restore its downed systems following a massive cyberattack, which has crippled operations in health care systems across the country for ten days.
“The cyberattack against Change Healthcare that began on Feb. 21 is the most serious incident of its kind leveled against a U.S. health care organization,” according to the American Hospital Association (AHA).
The Nashville-based healthcare technology company says it continues to work with law enforcement and cyber security consultants to get their systems back to normal following the cyberattack, but it does not know how long it will take to get fully resolved.
An official company statement says a ransomware group that identifies itself as ALPHV/Blackcat has claimed responsibility for the cyberattack and perpetrated the online hack.
OBSERVATION - Hackers are becoming more adept at getting past cyber defenses - especially if the system users are careless in some manner.
Illegal Immigration –
Texas bill making illegal border crossing an arrestable offense BLOCKED by federal judge pending appeal.
***
New York Mayor Eric Adams has called for a radical overhaul of its sanctuary city status in a spectacular u-turn as the city buckles under the weight of migrant arrivals. The Democrat leader has faced a furious backlash as schools, hotels and community centers have been turned over to the 180,000 migrants who he has warned will ‘destroy’ the city.
OBSERVATION - Can cross ref to CW2 as well. Much of the backlash to the support given illegals comes from the black community who are seeing the illegals being given preference over their traditional feed from the govt trough. In the event of things going sideways, conflict between blacks and illegals may become hot as they fight for resources.
***
Democrat assembly member Joaquin Arambula (Fresno) recently introduced Assembly Bill 1840 to extend a first-time homebuyer loan program to illegal aliens.
If the bill becomes law, illegal aliens will be eligible for a new program that offers a loan worth 20% of the purchase price of the residential property. There are no monthly payments and no interest accrues on the loan. Rather, the loan is paid back when the borrower refinances or sells the property. The borrower will have to pay back the original loan plus a 20% increase in the value of the property.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/03/illegal-aliens-get-interest-free-home-loans-under/
OBSERVATION - Clearly the goal is to embed these illegals into our country and make it very difficult to remove them. Kalifornia already tens of billions of dollars in the hole, willing to toss even more money to the wind for people who shouldn’t be here in the first place. This is on top of massive, free medical care and the thousands of dollars each month paid out to them.
North/South Korea –
See Russia- Logistics below for questions on supplying ammo to Russia.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Since Navalny’s death was announced, authorities seem determined to avoid letting his funeral become a public spectacle.
From the moment Navalny’s mother, Lyudmila, traveled to the penal colony north of the Arctic Circle where he died a sudden death in mid-February, she said Russian authorities had tried to blackmail her into staging a nonpublic funeral.
First, they refused to hand her Navalny’s body. Then, Navalny’s allies could not find a venue which would agree to host the funeral. On Thursday, it suddenly became impossible to find a hearse to carry his body to the church.
Putin, who famously refuses to call Navalny by his name, appears to have decided his political foe should disappear underground enshrouded in silence.
The size of the service was limited but police seemed to have been told not to interfere with the crowd.
https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/03/01/thousands-turn-out-for-navalnys-funeral-n3783937
OBSERVATION - putin is facing reelection to office here in the upcoming months. With it is the anchor of an unpopular war in Ukraine. He doesn’t need a new martyr haunting the backs of people’s minds at the voting booth.
RUMINT-
Yesterday saw more evidence suggesting that Ukraine’s killed or severely wounded Russia’s top general in a missile strike in occupied Crimea - Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. He wasn’t seen at Putin’s “state address.” Russia’ did however put out several videos showing him giving awards to soldiers, but without any dates or details of the locations.
Logistics –
North Korea may have stopped supplying ammunition to Russia.
This based on a report that North Korean cargo ships have not sailed to Russia for three weeks, the ‘NK Pro’ publication says.
The reason for the cessation of deliveries by sea is unknown. However, it’s speculated that North Korea may still supply weapons to the occupiers by air or rail.
Other reports that Iran has stopped shipments of cannon artillery as well due to depletion of reserve supplies.
If these reports are correct and true, Russia could well be facing an ammo drought in the near future.
Others note that both Iran and NK have ramped up their ammo production - so shortages may be speculatory for the moment.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.
Ukraine shot down another Russian Su-34 airplane in eastern Ukraine. In addition, overnight, 14 out of 17 Shahed drones were shot down. Drones were targeting Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kryvyi Rih and Kharkiv regions.
Avdiivka -
Heavy clashes continue at the area west to Avdiyivka, Ukrainian military repelling multiple Russian attacks
Crimean front —
According to Russian media outlet MASH, Ukraine attempted to attack the Crimean bridge with a combined strike of British Storm Shadow cruise missiles and American ADM-160 MALD decoys. Allegedly at least 12 missiles would have been shot down.
However the targets were likely near by military airport.
Russian Territory –
Ukraine drone damaged 2 residential house in St.Petersburg. It is believed that the target could have been the Ruchy oil depot.
Outlook —
The Russian offensive will continue to press hard against Ukraine and will continue to make some gains. The Russian continuation to put its CAS into range of Ukraine’s ADA assets resulted in another shoot down of a Su-34. The big discussion is just how long can Russia sustain this level of losses? All boils down to how many jets they have available.
Forbes reported that Russia’s air force has acquired a total of 140 Su-34 fighter-bombers. As of Friday, Ukraine claims to have downed 35 of them. The Oryx open-source intelligence tracker lists 25 Su-34s destroyed.
If Ukraine’s figures are accurate, the Russian air force would have around 105 Su-34s remaining in service. However, an unknown number may not be operational due to damage, a lack of pilots, and required routine maintenance.
“The impact of losing 13 aircraft in almost as many days, and possibly some of their highly trained pilots, is not negligible for the Russian military,” the Institute for the Study of War wrote in its Thursday update.
https://www.newsweek.com/how-many-su-34-fighter-bombers-russia-have-left-ukraine-1875023
NOTE here, Oryx has ‘retired’, so those numbers are old but does track at trend that Ukraine’s claim of 35 killed. As I’ve commented many times, of the approximately 105 remaining aircraft remaining, not all are flyable, due to parts and pilot shortages. Heavy use causing wearing out of parts is a key factor. Also, not all of those aircraft are dedicated to the Ukraine war. Russia has been conduction considerable bombing of Syria in support of Assad. Also, aircraft are dedicated to protect other border areas and assets of Russia. So the trend of losing a jet per day is not a good thing for Russia, and may force them to make some serious tactical and strategic adjustments. Until then, the Kremlin sees the surge in CAS more beneficial to the current offensive operations than the loss of airframes.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Kremlin officials reportedly met with leaders of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region Gagauzia and emphasized Russia’s support for Gagauzia against perceived Moldovan “oppression” on March 1.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas reports 7 hostages have been killed.
- Countries looking to conduct expanded air drops of supplies to areas within Gaza.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
Seven hostages who have been held in Gaza were killed as a result of the Israeli military’s bombardment of the enclave, Abu Ubaida, the spokesperson for Hamas’ armed wing al-Qassam brigades said on Friday.
He did not include details, like a timeline, backing up the claim.
The Al-Qassam brigades claimed that the number of hostages killed due to Israel’s military operations in Gaza has now exceeded 70 captives, Abu Ubaida added in a statement on Telegram.
***
Military spokesman for the Egyptian army: Egypt continues to airdrop tons of food and humanitarian needs into the northern Gaza Strip.
U.S. President Joe Biden is set to announce that the United States will air drop aid supplies into Gaza, official s say
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
Israeli forces continued to conduct clearing operations in western and eastern Khan Younis.
More IAF airstrikes on areas around Rafah.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
3 Hezbollah terrorists, including a top commander were killed this morning in an Israeli missile strike against their car in Naqoura in southern Lebanon.
***
Increasing rumors that Israel is building up forces in the north in anticipation of war against Hezbollah.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
A suspected Israeli attack against the Syrian city of Baniyas has killed Iranian military “advisor” Reza Zarei, a member of the IRGC’s Navy, Iran’s state-run media reported
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Quiet in Iraq and Syria, though Iranian militias have announced recently that they are going to resume attacks on US bases.
Houthi attacks remain at a low level.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations. From recent days, considerable tunnel and bunker networks are still being discovered, needing to be cleared and destroyed.
Israel continues to shape the battlefield for its eventual entry into Rafah.
The international airdrop of supplies into Gaza will have the effect of resupplying Hamas, and not the non-combatants in the area.
Israel’s continued strikes on key Hezbollah leadership and sites continues. Targeting of key leadership and infrastructure is typically associated with shaping operations intended to soften up the enemy before large-scale combat operations begin. Again, many do not see Israeli initiated ground offensive as imminent, but several months away. As noted many times, Hezbollah may launch a preemptive offensive at almost any time rather than continue to have Israel pick apart its leadership and key sites over the next several months.
The relative quiet by the ISLAMIC RESISTANCE may soon be broken as the Iranian backed militias and Houthi’s retain the capability to strike at any time. In the case of the Houthis, the recent coalition attacks may have hurt more than is being let on - so they may be working to redeploy assets before resuming more attacks.
Iran –
Iran held separate elections for Parliament and the Assembly of Experts. These elections will likely preserve and possibly even reinforce hardliner influence in the Iranian regime.
Unofficial results from Iran’s parliamentary vote show overwhelming wins for regime-aligned candidates as ordinary Iranians boycott sham elections.
Reports also were that turn out was very, very low.
New York Attorney General Letitia James has a beef with the John Birch Society, JBS USA, raising steers?
Biden and his thugs are waving terrorists into our country - and Biden's press bimbos are calling them 'newcomers'. When thousands of Americans are killed the country will never forgive Biden or the democrat party.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The EU Parliament has approved the creation of a digital “wallet” system, raising concerns over increasing state control of people’s lives.
. EU lawmakers in Strasbourg signed off a European Digital Identity (eID) by a margin of 335 votes in favour to 190 against, and 31 abstentions. The “digital wallet”, which now only needs the effective rubber stamp from the EU Council of Ministers to become law, will contain digital forms of national IDs, driving licenses, banking details, medical prescriptions and other private details of users.
Dutch political commentator Eva Vlaardingerbroek added: “Although they say it’ll be voluntary – just like they said the digital vaccine passports would be voluntary – this system is the foundation for a Chinese social credit style digital surveillance state.”
Like Beijing, Brussels is also looking to implement a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), which critics have warned could be used as a means of social engineering, with even the Bank of England admitting that such state-run cryptocurrencies could be “programmable“, meaning that the government could determine what is worthy for people to spend their money on.
OBSERVATION - This move will only accelerate efforts here in the US for a similar, comparable system.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
In the antifa stronghold of Seattle, pro-hamas protestors shut down the road again during a direct action event in Seattle
See “Terrorism” below RE: pro-hamas demonstration that included a potential grenade scenario.
***
biden regime focusing again on controlling the media -
The White House is demanding that Fox News retract reports regarding the corruption and bribery allegations that have been made against Democrat President Joe Biden and his family.
According to CNN, Biden’s White House made the demand in a letter that it sent to Fox News’s leadership this week.
White House spokesperson Ian Sams wrote the letter.
The reports focus on allegations that the president and his son, Hunter Biden, took millions of dollars in bribes from foreign nations to peddle their influence in Washington D.C.
It has been alleged that while he was vice president, Biden pressured Ukraine to fire its top prosecutor, who was investigating Burisma Holdings at the time.
OBSERVATION - When the govt demands censorship, rather than transparent reporting of issues and in this case potential corruption, you know you have transitioned towards tyranny. So far Fox has not conceded to the WH demands.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran and with Ramadan beginning March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
Still maintaining this warning as the potential for a preemptive strike by Hezbollah has increased lately
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Times Square is evacuated after a grenade was found in the back of Uber as anti-Israel protestors make their way through New York City preventing NYPD from reaching the device.
An Uber driver turned to look in the backseat after dropping a passenger off on 42nd Street and 7th Avenue in Times Square and saw the explosive device.
The driver notified the police just after 4 pm and NYPD deployed the Emergency Services Unit and the Bomb Squad to the scene.
Anti-Israel protestors were marching through the streets and blocking traffic at the time of the emergency.
The grenade was believed to be inert, according to a police source.
Bomb squad had difficulty reaching the vehicle due to crowds of pro-hamas demonstrators marching through the streets and blocking traffic at the time of the emergency.
OBSERVATION - (HT/TIK) Even a ‘dud’ can cause considerable panic and chaos. All part of an effort to create a level of terror.
BTW - IIRC, Uber should have a line on who that passenger was.
Economy-
The debt load of the U.S. is growing at a quicker clip in recent months, increasing about $1 trillion nearly every 100 days.
The nation’s debt permanently crossed over to $34 trillion on Jan. 4, after briefly crossing the mark on Dec. 29, according to data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. It reached $33 trillion on Sept. 15, 2023, and $32 trillion on June 15, 2023, hitting this accelerated pace. Before that, the $1 trillion move higher from $31 trillion took about eight months.
OBSERVATION - Hidden from the common headlines, this has the greatest potential for triggering the ‘Great Reset’ longed for by the WEF. BTW, this is affecting all of the nations, not just the US. Debt has exceeded the GDP of the country - meaning that it is virtually impossible to pay off. Debt is exceeding even the defense budget. And as much as fiscal restraint is needed, even Rand Paul’s efforts will be too little, too late.
***
The price of homes has been holding steadily higher, in the Case-Shiller/S&P numbers just out.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.5% annual gain in December, up from a 5.0% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 7.0%, up from a 6.3% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 6.1%, up from a 5.4% increase in the previous month. San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 8.8% increase in December, followed by Los Angeles and Detroit, each with an 8.3% increase. Portland showed a 0.3% increase this month, holding the lowest rank after reporting the smallest year-over-year growth.”
OBSERVATIONS - Back to the housing market reflections on the economy. The report contains a ton of other details that make my head swim. Commentators and analysts are sifting through this to ascertain if the information will sway the fed to loosen up money by lowering rates sooner than this fall as they are currently inclined to do.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The simple fact that the military put this individual in front of cameras to openly display his mental disorders is both scary and appalling -
During a speech to the U.S. Air Force, transgender Space Force Col. Bree Fram demanded everyone use pronouns in their emails as a way to enhance “winning war fighting strategies”.
When our military places use of ‘pronouns’ above actually preparing to win wars, we are in a very dangerous situation.
***
The U.S. Air Force has released pictures of a live AGM-183 Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon hypersonic missile, or ARRW, under the wing of a B-52H bomber during a training event at Andersen Air Force Base on Guam. This very public showing of ARRW at a highly strategic base in the Pacific comes despite the Air Force announcing its intention to axe the program last year. It prompts new questions about the increasingly ambiguous future of this weapon.
The pictures of the live AGM-183A, as denoted by the presence of two yellow bands painted on the front and rear of the weapon, were released along with a brief Air Force news item about what was described as “hypersonic weapon familiarization training” at Andersen on February 27. In one of the pictures, the missile’s serial number, AR-AUR-005, can also be seen.
https://www.twz.com/air/b-52-armed-with-hypersonic-missile-makes-appearance-in-guam
OBSERVATION - Hmmmmmm. Interesting.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Trump took three more state primaries by overwhelming margins. Moving forward towards Super Tuesday this week.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Biden relies on cue cards for just about everything, but it looks like even this extreme measure is failing. Here in reading from a prepared statement on a notecard about getting food to Gaza, at the 30-second mark Biden twice says we’ll be opening up more corridors to “Ukraine.” Italian PM Meloni looks around the room wondering if someone is going to help this poor doddering old man.
Illegal Immigration –
Crimes committed by illegals are rising higher and higher in the national / local news, to the point where the MSM can hardly hold it back from public view. The loss of the ‘narrative’ is also being reflected in the rise of illegals to the highest concern for voters this cycle. this plays right into Trump’s hand and is apparent in biden’s sudden interest in border ‘control’.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Russian media reports the introduction of the counter-terrorist operation regime in Ingushetia Province. This area is located just north of Georgia and in between the Black and Caspian Seas.
In a section of the town of Karabulak, FSB special forces have engaged in a firefight with unidentified ‘militants,’ according to Russian propagandists.
Russian propagandists write about a shootout with alleged “Islamic State” (ISIS) militants who were planning a terrorist attack.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Colonel Мусаев Гусейн Вилаятович (Musaev Gusein Vilayatovich), commander of the 36th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, was confirmed killed in a HIMARS strike on the training ground Trudivske, Volnovakha, Ukraine on February 20.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.
Russian ministry of defense claims air defense shot down 38 drones over occupied Crimea.
The Russian military has temporarily stopped flying A-50s near the front line due to the high frequency of shoot-downs according to British intelligence reports, following the destruction of a second A-50 spy plane, the Russian military has decided to cease their use near the front line.
Ukraine confirms the downing of another Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber. Air Command East confirms the shooting down of a Su-34 fighter-bomber. Unfortunately, only one,” wrote AFU Commander Mykola Oleshchuk. Earlier in the day there were unconfirmed reports of a second downing.
Crimean front —
It appears Ukraine launched a large drone attack, with massive explosions reported in Russian-occupied Feodosia, Crimea. Air defense is active and possible hit the 1st drone, but the 2nd explosion seems to be ground-based and far more powerful.
Russian Territory –
In Yekaterinburg, an electric substation supplying electricity to three defense plants was blown up, Russian media reported. Unknown people planted explosives at the regime facility right in front of the guards.
Outlook —
The Russian offensive will continue to press hard against Ukraine and will continue to make some gains.
Russian forces appear to be willing to risk continued aviation losses in pursuit of tactical gains in eastern Ukraine, likely along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line. However there are indicators that this effort may be changing - suddenly . “For the first time since the beginning of the full-scale invasion – in Eastern Ukraine, everything is clear, with not a single enemy aircraft observed within the past four hours,” said Oleshchuk, the Commander of the Air Force of the AFU.
Lack of A50 AWACS may well be a significant contributing factor to the drop in CAS.
Russia is losing time by any stoppage of CAS, as the deployment date of F-16s is coming closer every day. They will not be the ‘fix all’ for Ukraine, but will make it a lot harder for Russia to force air superiority - even temporary - over Ukraine territory as they have over the past month.
We will have to watch to see just what adjustments Russia will make. Will they go back to the relatively ‘safe’ lobbing of glide bombs, or risk CAS.
One other item that is gaining notice is the alleged presence of NATO troops assisting Ukraine with various aspects of the war. Russia has made claims of striking NATO troop concentrations in the past, but now it seems NATO is close to admitting more direct actions. This could cause serious actions to be taken by Russia.
Europe / NATO General –
Germany Chancellor Scholz has promised an investigation after Russian media published a leaking of a recording of German air force officers discussing support for Ukraine.
***
Cars with Russian registration plates must leave Lithuania by March 11, or they will be confiscated. An exception will be made for cars in transit to and from the Kaliningrad Region; they will be allowed to stay in Lithuania for 24 hours.
***
French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday stood behind his comments about NATO not ruling out sending troops to Ukraine despite the uproar it caused and the warning it drew from Russia.
“These are sufficiently serious issues; every one of the words that I say on this issue is weighed, thought through, and measured,” Macron told reporters.
Following a meeting of European leaders on the Ukrainian proxy war on Monday, Macron said, “There’s no consensus today to send in an official, endorsed manner troops on the ground. But in terms of dynamics, nothing can be ruled out.”
His comments appeared to confirm a warning from Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico, an opponent of NATO support for Ukraine, who said earlier that some NATO members were considering sending troops to Ukraine on a “bilateral basis.”
The Kremlin has warned that the deployment of Western troops to Ukraine would make a direct Russia-NATO war inevitable. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on Thursday that Russia’s nuclear arsenal is on “full combat alert.”
OBSERVATION - If this trend continues, I’ll have to merge with the Ukraine war commentary into a mega category. A few weeks ago the worrisome discussions were regarding a potential attack by Russia against Europe. Now discussions have shifted to actually placing regular European forces on the ground (and not covert special ops as is likely now) in Ukraine. An action that Putin has said would start a broader war in Europe.
***
Soldiers in Europe this week kicked off a month-long, large-scale exercise with 6,500 participants focused on preparing a multinational brigade to defend NATO.
Exercise Allied Spirit is run by 7th Army Training Command along with NATO allies and partners at Hohenfels and Grafenwöhr Training Areas, Germany, according to a U.S. European Command release.
The exercise commenced on Feb. 26 and will conclude on March 27.
Major players include the United States, Croatia, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom.
OBSERVATION - These exercises are approaching Reforger levels.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Heavy air strikes and ground actions overnight, largest in some time.
- Rumors of another ceasefire deal on the table, pending Hamas’ approval
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Abu Hamza, spokesman for the Al-Quds Brigades, the military arm of the Islamic Jihad:
“The first day of Ramadan will be a day of global mobilization in all arenas. We will make Ramadan a month of terror for Israelis, we are sure that together we will make the days of Ramadan historic.”
Abu Hamza also called for terrorist attacks:
“I call on our people in the West Bank and in Jerusalem, come out, attack the military checkpoints and increase the attacks against the occupation forces and the settlers.”
***
The WH announced a new ceasefire deal that is pending Hamas’ approval. Israel has reportedly tentatively OK’d it.
***
More airdrops of food by US and others over Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
IDF conducted large scale assaults on Deir al Balah and Khan Yunis areas. Palestinians report that over 20 targets have been hit. Gazans also report that the massive bombing of these areas is the largest in a long time.
On Saturday, the IDF targeted Islamic Jihad terrorists and terror infrastructure in the area of Rafah. PIJ is a lesser element of terrorists residing in Gaza and often lumped together with Hamas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israel reports that least 10 ranking Hezbollah terrorists have been eliminated in the last 24 hours
***
IDF aircraft targeted a vehicle in southern Lebanon occupied by terrorists who launched rockets into Israel. Targets were affiliated with Imam Hossein Division, tied to Hezbollah and Iran.
Strikes on Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in Labbouneh.
Overnight strikes on two Hezbollah military compounds in Blida area.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations. From recent days, considerable tunnel and bunker networks are still being discovered, needing to be cleared and destroyed.
Israel continues to shape the battlefield for its eventual entry into Rafah.
Intensity of the fight ebbs and wanes, and overnight’s heavy bombing and fighting is an example. It also suggests that Israeli efforts have been forcing terrorists to retreat into more confined areas and then being able to take them out. Still, this operation will continue for months, as there are so many tunnels yet to be discovered that Hamas et al are hiding in that there are a lot of terrorists remaining to take out.
News is relatively quiet regarding the status of civilian evacuations from Rafah, but early reports from last week suggest that movement out is ongoing.
Misc of Note –
Massive snow storm in the Sierra Nevada’s - considered by some to be a once in a generation event - solves the Kalifornia short term drought conditions. Well not so fast. Kalifornia is a land of extremes and extreme things can happen very fast. Moving fast into spring and warmer weather comes the delicate dance of just how fast will this massive amount of snow will melt.
Commonly termed as a “rain on snow” event, warm Pacific air - Pineapple Expresses - have historically hit the state. These storms have very high snow levels, resulting in much of the snow pack getting melted by the storm (current reported snow levels are now down to 2000 feet). This creates a massive surge in floodwaters that can overwhelm the state’s flood control systems. Here in the Redoubt, a similar event created historic flooding on the Yellowstone River, at levels never seen before. In 1996-97, a rain on snow event in kalifornia flooded vast areas on the Central Valley, causing massive levy breaks and close runs avoiding dam failures. Sacramento was an island, isolated from ground access for several days.
Warning to Freepers in flood prone areas of Kalifornia to make preparations in the event of such a scenario. Get your important papers and items together, pack a bag, prep several days of food - all in a ‘grab and go’ level of preparation. Review potential escape routes to high ground and make preliminary plans on where to stay. If with friends/family, make sure you call them and touch base so they aren’t taken by surprise when you show up at the door. Hopefully, the spring will be relatively tame and the snow melt not triggering massive floods. But you can never count on it.
Appreciate the wording….
Warning to Freepers in flood prone areas of Kalifornia to make preparations in the event of such a scenario. Get your important papers and items together, pack a bag, prep several days of food - all in a ‘grab and go’ level of preparation. Review potential escape routes to high ground and make preliminary plans on where to stay. If with friends/family, make sure you call them and touch base so they aren’t taken by surprise when you show up at the door. Hopefully, the spring will be relatively tame and the snow melt not triggering massive floods. But you can never count on it.
Prepper ping
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Scattered chaos from pro-hamas protests over the weekend. Many blocked traffic in large cities, but overall, nothing significant on a national level.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran and with Ramadan beginning March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Economy-
Heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia, alongside several other key OPEC+ producers, will extend their voluntary crude supply cuts until the end of the second quarter.
Saudi Arabia will stretch out its voluntary crude production cut of 1 million barrels per day until the end of the second quarter, the state-owned Saudi Press Agency said Sunday, citing an official source from the country’s Ministry of Energy.
Riyadh’s crude production will be approximately 9 million barrels per day until the end of June, the announcement said.
Russia will trim its production and export supplies by a combined 471,000 barrels per day until the end of June, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, according to a Google-translated report carried by Russian state-owned agency Tass. Moscow had volunteered to reduce its supplies by a slightly higher 500,000 barrels per day in the first quarter.
OPEC key producers Iraq and UAE will also prolong their voluntary production cuts of 220,000 barrels per day and 163,000 barrels per day, respectively, until the end of the second quarter, according to Google-translated updates from their state-owned news agencies INA and WAM.
OBSERVATION - Provided no major events, both economically and politically, that cause an increase in oil consumption, the prices for fuel should remain relatively steady. Also, because of the dropped productions levels, should the demand for oil rise, these OPEC countries have the tools to increase production in like manner - stabilizing prices.
Notes from Russia’s production are interesting. Russia has been selling tons of oil at cut rate prices to get around sanctions and get money into its sagging economy. It will be interesting to see if Russia holds to their end of the agreement.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
The Court holds that “[b]ecause the Constitution makes Congress, rather than the States, responsible for enforcing Section 3 against federal officeholders and candidates, we reverse.”
Unanimous decision - leftist heads exploding across the country.
***
Polls, polls, polls -
A shocking new Siena College poll released by The New York Times revealed an overwhelming majority — 73% — of Americans say Biden is “too old to be an effective president” and that included even 61% of his 2020 voters.
Former President Donald Trump has widened his CBS News/YouGov poll lead over President Joe Biden to a new high of 4 points as Super Tuesday figures to make a 2020 rematch all but official.
With Americans going sour on Biden’s presidency, Trump is drawing 52% support in a head-to-head matchup versus Biden (48%).
Notably, a majority of Trump backers (51%) say their vote is based on liking the candidate, while a plurality of Biden backers (47%) do not base their vote on liking him (just 31%).
More than 6 in 10 (63%) say they are not very or not at all confident in Biden’s mental capability to serve effectively as president, according to a new survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That is a slight increase from January 2022, when about half of those polled expressed similar concerns.
OBSERVATION - Remember, polls can be used to mask efforts to shape public perceptions. These are sour polls for biden - from a media that staunchly defended him for the first two years in office - at this stage of the campaign they once again appear to be an attempt to convince him to step aside from running. They also convey to the left that if things continue, the voter fraud necessary to overcome these numbers will have to be even more massive than in 2020.
****
Congressional leaders on Sunday came out with a package of six bills setting full-year spending levels for some federal agencies, a step forward in a long overdue funding process beset by sharp political divisions between the two parties as well as infighting among House Republicans.
The release of the text of legislation over the weekend was designed to meet the House’s rule to give lawmakers at least 72 hours to study a bill before voting. And it’s a promising sign that lawmakers will avoid a partial shutdown that would kick in at 12:01 a.m. Saturday for those agencies covered under the bill, such as Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, Transportation, Justice and others.
Congressional leaders hope to complete votes on the package this week and continue negotiations on the remaining six annual spending bills to pass them before a March 22 deadline. The price tag for the package out Sunday comes to about $460 billion, representing less than 30% of the discretionary spending Congress looks to approve for this year. The package still being negotiated includes defense spending.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/funding-government-shutdown/2024/03/03/id/1155771/
However, review of the 1000+ page document has uncovered some disturbing items. First, Schumer has added multiple millions of dollars of earmarks to the bill to get pet projects funded.
One item even more disturbing concerns the nuking of the entire Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve - which, at roughly 1 million barrels, is too small to matter on a national scale - but which could serve as a critical cache of energy in the event of another major disaster. It requires it to be sold and the supporting infrastructure removed. Then, the bill makes it even harder to establish regional reserves in the future - requiring several new layers of red tape. This all during a time when the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest levels since the 80s.
OBSERVATION - At a time when we are increasing the federal deficit at a rate of one TRILLION dollars every 100 days - with no end in sight - they want to pile on more debt and screw up safeguards for the public in the event of an emergency. The latter really concerns me, leaving us vulnerable to complete collapse scenarios and dead in the water.
Illegal Immigration –
Arizona Republicans are advancing a bill that would allow landowners near the border to use lethal force against trespassers.
***
Mayorkas demands the term “illegal immigrant” be removed from language when referencing illegal immigrants..
OBSERVATION - The utter distain this person has towards the US is off the charts. He knows that the senate will not support the House’s impeachment, so he’s free to be as destructive against the country as he wants.
China –
China’s “Two Sessions” kick off in Beijing on Monday with the meeting of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).
The event brings together China’s political elite, as well as leaders in business, tech, media, and the arts.
What are the major developments to watch?
During last year’s Two Sessions, delegates officially approved Xi Jinping for an unprecedented third term as president.
This year, the event is likely to be dominated by China’s lagging economy, which is grappling with slowing growth, deflation, massive debt and falling exports.
One of the most important events to watch will be Premier Li Qiang’s delivery of the annual work report, which will review the government’s accomplishments and set goals for 2024.
Li is expected to set an economic growth target of about 5 percent for 2024 and discuss headline issues from China’s falling birth rate to the future of tech and artificial intelligence (AI) regulation.
OBSERVATION - China’s economy is key - it has been staggering since the wuhan lockdowns and many sectors are imploding. Also to watch are personnel changes and other potential issues such as Taiwan.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Follow up from yesterday. Russian police have killed 6 members of an armed group after a 13 hour firefight in the town of Karabulak in the Republic of Ingushetia (right next to Chechnya).
Logistics –
The head of the Russian defense conglomerate Rostec, Sergey Chemezov, confirmed that the state-of-the-art Russian tank, the T-14 “Armata,” is not being deployed in the war in Ukraine, which the Kremlin has labeled a “special military operation.”
Chemezov attributed this decision to the tank’s exorbitant cost, indicating that the military is opting for the more economical T-90 tanks instead. He underscored the prohibitive expense of the Armata as a deterrent to its immediate deployment, stressing the need for funds to develop newer and more cost-effective tank models.
“In terms of its functionality, it certainly surpasses existing tanks, but it’s too expensive, so the army is unlikely to use it now. It’s easier for them to buy the same T-90s,” Chemezov said.
https://defence-blog.com/russia-abandons-armata-tank-due-to-its-high-cost/?amp
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. Rain and snow arriving towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.
News on a low cycle coming from the war zone. In all probability fighting remains intense on the eastern front. Russian losses continue to be high, with over 1000 estimated to be killed daily - not including wounded. No reports of Russian air activity either.
Russian Territory –
The Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) confirms that the rail road bridge over the Chapayevka River in the Samara Region, Russia, has been blown up. The bridge has been used to transport military supplies from the east to the front in Ukraine. Confirmed by Russia.
Outlook —
Russia may be shifting to a new phase of its offensives in the east and south. Questions remain - will these assaults continue to receive CAS or will the Russian air force pull back to ‘safer’ actions. What will the larger Russia objectives be now that Avdiivka has fallen and the territory gained consolidated? What impact are the heavy losses of men and material having on the offensive and when will any reserves be committed to the efforts.
Any delay will permit Ukraine to resume its standard, stiff defense, - and effectively stall out any substantial offensive gains by Russia.
Europe / NATO General –
Belgian police just arrested 4 Islamists who were about to carry out a terror attack. The arrests were made in Brussels, Charleroi, Ninove and Liège.
***
Leaks of German discussions concerning taking out the Kersch Bridge continue to reverberate in Germany. The release is being viewed by many as a Russian effort to keep Germany from supplying Ukraine with cruise missiles capable of taking out the bridge as well as strategic targets within Russia proper.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas refuses to provide a list of living hostages.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Israel will not be sending a negotiating team to Cairo, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Sunday, after receiving an unsatisfactory response from Hamas on the latest framework for a hostage deal hammered out in Paris last weekend.
The Gaza-based terror organization refused to address Jerusalem’s demand to provide a list of living hostages and to lock down how many Palestinian prisoners Israel must release for every hostage freed, added the official.
Hamas’s position was conveyed to Israel through Qatar.
According to Channel 12, the war cabinet and the professional echelon all agreed that there was no point in sending a delegation to Egypt for ongoing talks given Hamas’s response.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
Overnight and this morning, Israeli army strikes have continued throughout the strip as well as heavy armed clashes.
The Israeli army says it has wrapped up a two-week-long raid in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighborhood, during which troops of the 401st Armored Brigade and additional forces of the 162nd Division destroyed Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad sites and killed more than 100 operatives
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Abbas Ahmed Halil, a Hezbollah terrorist and grandson of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli airstrike against southern Lebanon yesterday.
The reports said he was among the three Hezbollah members wiped out by an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon on Saturday morning.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Still quiet in this area.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Air drops of food continue over portions of Gaza.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations. From recent days, considerable tunnel and bunker networks are still being discovered, needing to be cleared and destroyed.
Israel continues to shape the battlefield for its eventual entry into Rafah.
Fierce fighting last week resulted in hundreds of hamas et al fighters being killed and even more captured. Progressive clearing is identifying more and more underground tunnels/ bunkers being used by surviving terrorist forces. Each day they lose more places to flee to and hide - forcing them into jihadist battles to the death.
Israel continues to prep the Lebanon battlefield and future war thru hitting Hezbollah leadership like the strike on Ahmed Halil. Loss of leaders, munitions, command/comms facilities, rocket launching sites, etc, will hurt them when Israel does cross the border in force. How much will is Hezbollah willing to absorb before being placed in a position where they need to launch a preemptive strike.
It's almost as if democrats know it's all going to fall apart soon. ... maybe someone's paying them to destroy the country... that seems far fetched or maybe the chaos will work for them. I'm at a loss about these choices.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Millions of Americans, depressed by the ideological divide in America, harbor a wish that something or someone can bridge this divide.
This wish is understandable. But it is fantasy. The divide is unbridgeable. One might as well wish that daily consumption of a hot fudge sundae will lead to weight loss.
If you still think the left-right divide is bridgeable, it is only because it is too painful to confront the tragic reality of contemporary American life: Today’s left-right divide is at least as great as the North-South divide before and during the Civil War. The only thing that remains the same is that it was the Democratic Party that opposed freedom then, and it is the Democratic Party that opposes freedom today.
OBSERVATION - Commentary covers a lot of the dividing issues of today - issues that have sparked violent protests by the left in recent months. These are issues that by their nature have no middle ground upon which to move towards. Add them to the broader geopolitical divides (yes these in the article are also part of) like CBDC, globalism goals, etc and the move towards a separation if growing every day.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
The FBI is hunting for an alleged Iranian spy who is accused of plotting to assassinate former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other American officials.
Majid Dastjani Farahani speaks Farasi, French, Spanish and English and frequently travels between Iran and Venezuela, according to an alert Friday by the agency’s Miami field office.
The 41-year-old suspected member of Iran’s brutal Ministry of Intelligence and Security had been recruiting “individuals for operations in the U.S., to include lethal targeting of current/former [U.S. government] officials,” the FBI said.
The alert came as Iran sought to avenge the 2020 US assassination of Major General Qasem Soleimani under Pompeo’s watch.
Farahani had been recruiting individuals “as revenge” for Soleimani’s death, according to the feds.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
SUPER TUESDAY!
****
Massive melt down over the USSC decision on the 14 Amendment. A few examples of note -
Keith Oberman (from “X”). “The Supreme Court has betrayed democracy. Its members including Jackson, Kagan and Sotomayor have proved themselves inept at reading comprehension. And collectively the “court” has shown itself to be corrupt and illegitimate.”
“It must be dissolved.”
Whoopi Goldberg even leaves libs co-hosts on The View STUNNED LIVE on-air after suggesting Biden should “throw every Republican in jail” if Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump
Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold looks like she’s about to cry on MSNBC:
“It will be up to the American voters to save our democracy.”
Congress will have to try and act,” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), the ranking member of the House Oversight Committee, told Axios. Raskin pointed to legislation he introduced with Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) in 2022 creating a pathway for the Justice Department to sue to keep candidates off the ballot under the 14th Amendment.
“We are going to revise it in light of the Supreme Court’s decision,” Raskin said.
OBSERVATION - NOTE, this can almost be equally categorized under CW2. I realize that Oberman and Whoopi are absolute nut jobs of the left, who’s minds have turned to jello a long time ago. However, they vocalize feelings of the left in general and is echoed by Griswold and Raskin in their own way. They are willing to destroy the constitution and even the supreme court (no longer stacking it but deleting it altogether) in order to get trump.
The effort at warfare by the dems has hit rocks lately. The USSC has also taken on the immunity of a president - to the dismay of democrats. Trumps Georgia trial is imploding due to prosecutorial malfeasance between the love birds. Smith’s classified doc trial is floundering as is his charges of compliance with the events of J6.
One gets concerned as these efforts fall by the way side - how desperate will the democrats get and will they try to initial a lethal means?
***
Attorney General Merrick Garland announced today that the Biden DOJ is working to END voter ID laws.
OBSERVATION - At this stage, the goal is to obtain temporary restraining orders the purpose of which is to tie these law up and prevent their execution during the November elections. There is a lot of support for these laws out there and an overt attempt by the DoJ may not be taken very well by the electorate, placing biden in even a deeper hole popularity wise.
Illegal Immigration –
Biden administration admits to transporting 320,000 illegal aliens on secret flights into the U.S. to reduce the number of crossings.
Lawyers for its immigration agencies claim revealing the locations could create national security “vulnerabilities.”
***
Soldiers from the Tennessee National Guard are deploying down to the southern border after President Joe Biden has continued to fail to take any meaningful action to contain the crisis.
***
A Federal appeals court will allow Texas law SB 4 to take effect on March 9th. The law allows Texas authorities to detain and deport illegal immigrants themselves, without waiting on assistance from federal authorities.
The decision was short lived. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito on Monday temporarily blocked a judicial decision. His order is set to expire on March 13 but he or the full Supreme Court could take further action before then. Alito handles certain emergency matters involving cases from a group of states including Texas.
***
New numbers from the CBP. Per CBP sources, there were once again 7,000+ migrant encounters at the southern border yesterday, the 3rd day in a row of 7,000, putting us at 21k over the last 72 hrs. Still much lower than the highs of December, (10-11k per day), but moving out of Jan/Feb “slow” months. We are teed up for a spring surge. Tucson, AZ and San Diego sectors continue to see the most illegal crossings as traffic shifts away from Texas.
***
The last three years have seen a notable 7300% surge in the number of people migrating from Venezuela to the United States, influenced by changes in U.S. immigration policies. However, this substantial increase has raised concerns, illustrated by an incident involving Jose Antonio Ibarra, a Venezuelan migrant, who committed a crime in the U.S.
The surge in Venezuelan migrants has also triggered concerns about the country’s association with terrorism. The Venezuelan government’s issuance of travel documents to individuals linked to terrorism and its ties with Iran have raised questions about the potential presence of terrorist groups.
According to a State Department report, Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and his associates engage in criminal activities to maintain their power, fostering an environment conducive to known terrorist groups. This includes connections with communist revolutionaries like the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC-D) and the Colombian National Liberation Army (ELN).
https://lawenforcementtoday.com/challenges-emerge-as-u-s-faces-7300-surge-in-venezuelan-migration
OBSERVATION - I posted in a previous bleat that violent crime in Venezuela had significantly dropped. We see where all these criminals went. Continuing in headlines is violence being committed by Venezuelans here illegally and NYC is swamped by the new gang activity organized by the same groups.
***
The Georgia House of Representatives passed a bill that requires police and sheriff’s departments to help identify illegal aliens, arrest them, and detain them for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
The vote for House Bill 1105 was 97-74. This vote came as police charged Jose Ibarra, an illegal alien from Venezuela, for the assault and murder of Laken Riley. Ibarra illegally entered the United States in 2022. Laken was a nursing student at Augusta University’s Athens campus who began her college career at the University of Georgia. She was murdered while jogging on a popular trail on UGA’s campus last week.
OBSERVATION - Recent murderous attacks by illegals - that should have been prevented, is escalating the problems of illegals and crime as the election nears. DHS refuses to act to get a lid on these actions - forcing the states to do so - and the regime then turns around and takes them to court to permit the tsunami to continue unabated.
China –
China has set its economic growth target for 2024 at 5 percent, far below the double-digit growth that for decades powered the world’s second-largest economy.
China’s rubber-stamp National People’s Congress (NPC) officially unveiled the target on Tuesday as its $18 trillion economy is facing serious headwinds.
“We should communicate policies to the public in a well-targeted way to create a stable, transparent and predictable policy environment,” Chinese Premier Li Qiang said as he delivered his maiden work report outlining policy goals for the year.
Li said Beijing would push ahead with “transforming the growth model”, including through tax reform, fostering talent in tech, boosting domestic consumption, removing barriers to private investment, and issuing 1 trillion yuan ($139 bn) in special government bonds.
China’s economic roadmap, which matches last year’s goal, comes as the Chinese economy is grappling with multiple challenges, including a property crisis, slowing exports, geopolitical tensions with the United States, population decline, huge debt and record youth unemployment.
China’s economy officially grew 5.2 percent in 2023, its weakest performance in decades excluding the COVID-19 pandemic downturn.
China’s government announced a 2024 defense budget of RMB 1.67 trillion ($230.6 billion), a nominal 7.2% increase from last year. That is the same % growth seen in 2023, and similar to other recent years.
OBSERVATION - Govt directed economy, didn’t work for the Soviet Union and hasn’t worked for the Chicoms since walking back from more open capitalism. Essentially it seems to me that they are just trying to maintain ground from last year. Indicates that there are still substantial problems undercutting China’s economic foundations.
Phillipines –
China’s coast guard has fired water at a Philippine boat in the disputed territory of the South China Sea.
Earlier, the Philippines accused China of “dangerous manoeuvres” after their coast guard vessels collided in the area on Tuesday.
The Philippine Coast Guard said it was near the Second Thomas Shoal - known in Chinese as the Ren’ai Jiao - when the incident occurred.
In a post on Twitter, a Philippines official said its vessel suffered “minor structural damage”.
He shared footage showing the vessels hitting then scraping against each other.
Chinese state media reported that the China Coast Guard “lawfully took measures against a Philippines vessel”.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Follow up from yesterday. Russian police have killed 6 members of an armed group after a 13 hour firefight in the town of Karabulak in the Republic of Ingushetia (right next to Chechnya).
Economic Impact –
Poland plans to ask the EU to impose sanctions on Russian and Belarusian agricultural products and foodstuffs, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on March 4.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. Rain and snow arriving towards the end of the forecast period.
Ukraine’s GUR intelligence reports that a cyber warfare operation caused a “massive failure” in Russia’s drone program. The agency said its hackers corrupted software used by Russian UAVS, causing their flight controls to fail.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 18 of 22 Shahed drones overnight in the Odesa region.
Front lines remained relatively stable overnight. Mostly positional engagements with no confirmed changes to the frontline.
The Black Sea Fleet took another big hit overnight. Russian sources report that Ukrainian naval kamikaze drones successfully attacked the Russian Project 22160 Patrol Ship “Sergey Kotov” in the temporarily occupied Feodosia Crimea region.
5 large detonations were reported on Sergei Kotov from perhaps up to 6 (or more) USVs with at least 4 causing significant damage. Videos released show the vessel attempting to fire at the USVs with no success until the first impact.
The attacks initially caused the Kersch Bridge to be closed, but it has since been reopened.
Avdiivka -
The Russian advance has stopped in the Avdiivka sector.
Crimean front —
At least 10 people detained, including director Rustem Osmanov as FSB launched new wave of searches at houses of Crimeantatars in occupied Crimea
Russian Territory –
Russian media reports an oil depot was attacked by drones in the village of Dolgoye in the Belgorod region –. 100km from Ukraine border. At least two tanks were hit and set on fire.
Outlook —
The pause in Russian’s offensive has some indicators that they have over run their supply chain in part. Russian logistics has continued to be a weak link in their ground offensives. This pause is giving Ukraine time to better prepare its new lines of defense for the next attempted advance. Second, is that Russia CAS has disappeared for a second day in a row. I’ve seen some rumors that the Russian aircraft may have defective countermeasures that is assisting in the shutdowns.
The Black Sea Fleet continues to suffer big losses.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas claims not to know how many hostages they still have under confinement.
- Cease-fire talks between Hamas and mediators broke up Tuesday in Cairo with no breakthrough
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Hamas official Basem Naim said on Monday to AFP that the terror group did not know which of the hostages were dead or alive.
Basem also added that the hostages were held by many terror groups in different locations in the Gaza Strip.
According to Basem, a ceasefire is necessary for Hamas to ascertain how many and which hostages it is still holding.
Continuing the BBC interview, Naim asserted that information relating to the hostages was “valuable” and could not be given “for free.”
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-790201
***
The United Nation’s envoy on sex crimes during conflict presented a report Monday at the UN indicating that rape and gang rape likely occurred during the October 7 Hamas onslaught against southern Israel, that “clear and convincing” evidence shows that hostages were raped while being held in Gaza, and that those currently held captive are still facing such abuse.
The 24-page report, based on more than two weeks of meetings on the ground, states that there are “reasonable grounds” to believe that Hamas committed rape and sexual abuse during its murderous rampage on October 7, and that there is an even higher standard of evidence to indicate that hostages kidnapped by Hamas that day were subject to rape in captivity.
Israel in response accused the UN of playing down the report and dragging its feet on looking into the allegations, while trying to silence the accusations — something the UN secretary general swiftly denied.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-20/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
***
The largest Hamas terror tunnel discovered in northern Gaza, which had multiple branches and was dug from the northern Gaza Strip toward Israeli territory, was recently destroyed by the IDF.
The IDF first discovered the tunnel on December 16, 2023, and since then has been engaged in studying and dismantling it.
In December, the IDF published footage of Muhammad Sinwar, brother of Hamas leader Yahya SInwar, traveling in a vehicle in the tunnel.
***
The IDF said on Tuesday that some 50 Hamas targets were attacked in Gaza in the past day including rocket launchers, weapons storages and tunnel shafts.
IDF captured 1,200 terror suspects in western Khan Younis, including 85 terrorists involved in Oct. 7 massacre, after launching surprise assault on weekend; Israeli forces searching homes & mosques for tunnels & Hamas leadership hideouts
IDF destroyed 20 km of strategic tunnels in Khan Younis, Hamas division in the city was defeated & no longer able to operate as a large terror force; captured terrorists providing actionable intel.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanese media reports that more than 30 missiles were launched from Lebanon towards northern Israel.
Israel responded with an intense series of airstrikes.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi militants fired an anti-ship ballistic missile from Yemen into the southern Red Sea. The missile impacted the water with no reported damage or injuries to commercial or U.S. Navy ships. Between the hours of 3:50p.m. and 4:15p.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthi militants fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles from Yemen into the Gulf of Aden at M/V MSC SKY II, a Liberian-flagged, Swiss-owned container vessel. One of the missiles impacted the vessel causing damage. Initial reports indicate there were no injuries; the ship did not request assistance and continued on its way.At 8 p.m. (Sanaa time), CENTCOM forces conducted self-defense strikes against two anti-ship cruise missiles that presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and U.S. Navy ships in the region.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Indian embassy in Israel says it advises Indians working in Israeli border areas to relocate to safe areas within the country aftar a worker killed yesterday in Hezbollah attack. One killed, 7 wounded in Hezbollah missile attack on a border town in northern Israel
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations. From recent days, considerable tunnel and bunker networks are still being discovered, needing to be cleared and destroyed.
Recent heavy fighting has caused considerable losses to Hamas et al. There will still be pockets of resistance, but they are becoming increasingly isolated.
Israel continues to shape the battlefield for its eventual entry into Rafah. The big arab / hamas ploy is to try to generate support against a Ramadan offensive. israel is holding it over Hamas head, and Hamas / Hezbollah threatening to escalate. Next few days will tell where this is going.
And they don't take off for their holy days.
No post today folks, have a bunch of other things demanding my time today. Will catch up tomorrow.
That’s fine. Missing a day once in a while isn’t going to change much.
Enjoy your day...
Here's a little sumpin sumpin from Pookie for your amusement...
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
OTTAWA, Ontario (LifeSiteNews) — An Albertan Christian is being forced to undergo second “hate crime” trial after already being acquitted in 2021.
On February 15, the Supreme Court of Canada ruled that Christian activist Bill Whatcott must be retried for “Wilful Promotion of Hatred” for distributing flyers warning against homosexual acts during the June 2016 gay “Pride Parade” in Toronto. “The Supreme Court of Canada rendered its decision this morning and upheld the Ontario Court of Appeal’s decision that my acquittal for ‘Wilful Promotion of Hatred’ be overturned and a new trial be ordered,” Whatcott wrote on his blog.
Whatcott’s legal battle began in 2016 after he and a half dozen other Christian activists entered the Toronto gay “Pride Parade” under the guise of being members of “The Gay Zombies Cannabis Consumers Association.”
Whatcott being forced to undergo a trial for a crime which he has already been acquitted of came just weeks before the federal Liberal government under Prime Minister Justin Trudeau introduced Bill C-63, seeking to create the “Online Harms Act.”
Bill C-63 will create the Online Harms Act and modify existing laws, amending the Criminal Code as well as the Canadian Human Rights Act, in what the Liberals claim will target certain cases of internet content removal, notably those involving child sexual abuse and pornography.
In addition to these laudable goals, however, the bill also seeks to increase punishments for existing hate propaganda offenses in a substantial manner, as well as seeking to broaden the scope of the government’s ability to crackdown on speech.
OBSERVATION - Canada is one of the test beds of WEF / Globalism expansion with a PM and liberal govt as willing accomplices. Its been noted one of the biggest efforts of WEF affiliated govts and agencies is the silencing of any thing or any one (in this instance) who takes a biblically based stance against any of their goals - in this case promotion of LGBT and all the other sexual ‘isms’ designed to destroy the nuclear family and promote sexual anarchy.
Don’t think it is coming here? Guess again America, it already has in many instances - just keep up with the news.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Also is a function of illegal immigration -
“The city of Chicago has become a time bomb, and it is a prime example of a very disturbing trend that is happening all over America. Criminal gangs are thriving in most of our major urban areas, and Joe Biden’s open border policies are greatly fueling their growth. “
“The Chicago Police Department maintains two massive gang databases, collectively labeling more than 280,000 people as “gang members.” 95% of those people listed are people of color, most being young men in their late teens and 20s, but also thousands being Black and Latinx youth and elders.”
“However, the size of the Chicago Police Department was essentially unchanged on Johnson’s 100th day in office as compared with his first day in office. CPD had 12,360 employees on Johnson’s first full day in office and 12,363 employees on Monday, according to a city database. The number of sworn officers has also remained steady, with 11,720 officers on duty as of May 1, and 11,722 on the force as of Aug. 1, according to a database maintained by the Chicago Police Department.”
“Once I had the numbers, I did the math, and I discovered that gang members now outnumber police in the city of Chicago by a ratio of 22 to 1.”
OBSERVATION - For those living in and around these urban hell holes - I recommend doing what ever you can to get out of there -ASAP. As the article notes - this is a nation wide problem.
I’ve commented time and again, when things go sideways - and there are many scenarios - the urban areas will become a war zone of crime, gang wars and death. Gangs will initially take advantage of the lack of law enforcement to settle grudges, then seize what ever ‘prizes’ they can via uncontrolled looting. then they will fan out into surrounding suburban areas to do the same. Finally, as deliveries of supplies that urban centers need to survive, the fight over resources such as food and water will break out.
These actions will locally create CW2 conditions (if not outright linked to a larger, national event) as rural red areas work to contain the mobs in the urban zones. On a small scale, that is where the major fighting is likely to occur.
As the article also notes - the vast influx of illegals with substantial criminal past is flooding into the urban gangs - key example is the Venezuelan gang beginning to put the squeeze on NYC. They are a time bomb waiting for an excuse to explode.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
RELATED - Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
***
Steven Crowder, the conservative pundit, obtained an exclusive copy of the document that was originally sent to law enforcement at the federal and state level in Tennessee. The bulletin was issued on Feb. 29. However, the general public was never made aware of the threat.
Homeland Security released a statement to KWAM News Radio Memphis confirming the bulletin:
“On March 1, 2024, The Tennessee Office of Homeland Security issued an officer safety bulletin to Tennessee and surrounding states’ law enforcement agencies based on information provided by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, Memphis Field Office regarding Benjamin Dayton. Recently, law enforcement agencies in Arkansas made contact with Mr. Dayton and the bulletin was allowed to expire.”
OBSERVATION - Article asks the question why this wasn’t more widely distributed or announced. Reason - this guy targeted MAGA supporters.
Economy-
Quietly, in the background, gold prices have steadily climbed. Gold hit a new all-time nominal high, surpassing the previous record set in December of the previous year. The precious metal’s price reached approximately $2,140. There are currently no ‘down’ drivers either. Some analysts note that the driving force behind gold’s price increase appears to be foreign central banks, which have been significant buyers of the metal.
Its sister metal - silver - has been far more volatile lately. However, for buyers of physical metal (the only thing I could recommend) the prices for Eagles or even rounds is outrageously high due to demand as well. If you want to get diversified - take the time and research and talk to experts if necessary.
***
Rumors are flying that another round of bank failures is imminent. New York Community Bancorp stock has fallen 40% and trading in the stock has been HALTED by the Stock Exchange.
Industry insiders say “It’s over for that bank; it cannot survive.”
There are numerous other banks in the same predicament.
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Never forget what the leftist globalists said and did during the wuhan plandemic.
One ultra-left extremist was so sure what he believed was the gospel that he wanted unvaccinated people arrested and put away in concentration camps. Ian Vandaelle was a Canadian business journalist who worked as a reporter and editor at the Financial Post. Before that, he was a producer at BNN Bloomberg for over a decade.
However, during the “plandemic,” he called for vaccine passports and mandates in posts on social media. He even called for the firing of anyone who refused the injections.
Karma visited him -
Stephanie Hughes, Vandaelle’s partner, revealed that he died suddenly. In a post on X, she made this announcement:
It’s with a heavy heart today that I say he was declared neurologically deceased this week and taken off life support this morning.
The cause of Vandaelle’s sudden death has not been made public.
Sudden death - the diagnosis of a plethora of wuhan mRNA jab syndromes that have killed millions.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Saw an article showing that Trump over performed biden in every Super Tuesday state by a considerable margin. This is an indicator of voter enthusiasm- going to Trump bigley
***
The House passed the first half of its annual appropriations bills on Wednesday, marking the first step toward avoiding a government shutdown that is scheduled to start over the weekend.
Lawmakers passed the spending bill with a 339-85 vote, overcoming the two-thirds threshold needed to advance the lower chamber. The spending legislation passed after overwhelming support from House Democrats who countered the 83 Republicans who voted against the measure, helping push them past the finish line.
OBSERVATION - this ‘minibus’ is chock full of billions of dollars worth of earmarks. One of the more outrageous earmarks was for one million dollars in taxpayer money toward a Philadelphia-based LGBTQ group that hosts a monthly bondage, discipline, sadism, masochism (BDSM) “fetish” party.
Sen. Bob Casey, Sen. John Fetterman, and Rep. Brendan Boyle, all D-PA, had advocated for the earmark toward the William Way LGBT Community Center (popularly known as “WayGay”). Casey and Boyle are self-professed Catholics. Following much pushback from critics, both Casey and Fetterman requested that the Senate Committee on Appropriations remove the earmark from the spending package late Tuesday.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Tonight is the SOTU. Observers are wondering just how juiced up biden will be for this way past his bedtime event. Odds are it will not last long. Some think biden will work to reconcile the country by further dividing the country. Stay tuned on the inevitable FR live thread(s).
Jill Biden has invited Kate Cox, a Texas woman at the heart of a recent media narrative intended to discredit pro-life laws, to attend Joe Biden’s State of the Union Address this Thursday evening as a special guest, signaling Biden’s intentions to double down on pro-abortion messaging.
both Trump and Tucker Carlson promise play-by-play commentary as the speech goes on live.
Illegal Immigration –
On Monday, Gov. Hobbs vetoed the “Arizona Border Invasion Act” (Senate Bill 1231) which would have made illegal immigration a state crime, thus allowing police to arrest lawbreakers and do the job the Biden Administration has been loath to do.
The bill would have:
- Made it a misdemeanor to illegally enter the state between official ports of entry.
- Made it a felony to enter the state after being deported, and
- Made it a felony to refuse to refuse to comply after having been deemed inadmissible and ordered to leave.
In her veto letter, Gov. Hobbs claims the bill would not have secured the border but, instead, would have hurt Arizona’s businesses and communities, while placing an addition burden on the justice system.
North/South Korea –
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has ordered heightened readiness for war after inspecting troops at a major military operations base in the country’s west.
The state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) did not reveal the location of the base in its report on Thursday.
The North Korean leader said the military must “dynamically usher in a new heyday of intensifying the war preparations in line with the requirements of the prevailing situation”, according to KCNA.
“Our army should … steadily intensify the actual war drills aimed at rapidly improving its combat capabilities for perfect war preparedness,” he added.
OBSERVATION - Comments come as SK/US conduct their annual Freedom Shield large-scale military exercises. Such rhetoric is not uncommon from NK during joint exercises.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Logistics –
Russia is managing to produce about 30 T-72/80/90 series tanks per month. These have been supplied to its designated ‘elite’ units instead of the T54/55 and T62s they have been receiving. These are the tanks primarily showing up on the offensive axis. The older tanks are being forwarded to Russian National Guard units.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. Rain and snow arriving towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
The tempo has slowed up considerably across the fronts as Russia appears to have generally instituted a tactical pause - likely to restore logistical lines and move fresh units forward. .
Yesterday, Ukrainian air defense shot down 38 of 42 Shahed drones and 3 Ukrainian drones were reportedly shot down over Voronezh region.
In general, the front lines have been relatively static, no significant gains by Russia. News out (below) of renewed attacks in the Robotyne axis, but are not going well for Russia.
The Greek publication OEMA reports that Russia launched a missile strike on the convoy with Zelensky in Odesa ahead of his meeting with Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis. The missile landed 150 meters from the Greek delegation, where the Prime Minister was present.
The Greek delegation is safe, and both leaders made a joint statement later.
Russia has resumed flying air sorties, however, they are using glide bombs, released a fair distance from the combat zone, to avoid Ukrainian ADA. Bombs have big impact, but have to be programmed, taking away some of the flexibility CAS supplies.
Robotyne Axis -.
Russian troops intensified offensive attempts at Robotyne and Verbove. Reports of a major enemy assault being repelled at Robotyne with 10 vehicles destroyed.
Russian Territory –
One of the largest plants producing raw iron ore materials in Russia in Zheleznogorsk, Kursk Oblast, was attacked by unidentified flying objects. Reportedly, the drone struck right into the fuel tank on the territory of the plant.
The facility is sanctioned by the US and the UK as it’s linked to oligarch Alisher Usmanov.
Outlook —
Yesterday we nearly had a full blown NATO Art 5 situation from the Russia missile strike targeting Zelensky and Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis. It is believed that the location of the meeting was leaked to Russian elements, who targeted the event. They had to know the Greek PM was in attendance. The war drums of NATO have been beating loud lately, and this would have been just the excuse necessary to trigger more direct involvement. Even as it is, it will light NATO’s fires even more.
The pause in Russian’s offensive is going to hurt them in the long run. They are losing momentum and giving Ukraine time to reinforce their defenses. Along the 5 axis, Russia has massed a numerically superior force, but in war, defense generally favors the defender, and they are playing on Ukraine’s home field.
Evidence that the defense has stiffened comes from the defeat of a fairly large force at Robotyne with 10 of the attacking vehicles destroyed, with others likely forced to retreat. This poorly designed Russian tactic only makes it harder to sustain an offensive. At Robotyne they face a second disadvantage - their own obstacles that were installed to blunt Ukraine’s offensive. It not only channels their approaching forces thru gaps in the barriers, but then forces them into kill zones originally used against Ukraine.
Moldova/Transnistria -
France entering into a treaty with Moldova in a move to counter separatist element’s in Transnistria calls for Russian help.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan March 10 - April 8
Key overnight developments -
- Israel has potentially set a March 15th deadline for Hezbollah pull back to the Litany River as per UN directive.
- The first civilians have been killed by Houthi missiles in the Red Sea region.
- Hezbollah launched a large rocket barrage, about 70, towards Israel. The barrage was blunted by Iron Dome interceptors.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Foreign Minister Israel Katz has directed all embassies within the State of Israel to begin a large-scale hasbara (public diplomacy) campaign immediately on Thursday morning, in light of the findings of the UN report on sexual violence in the Hamas massacre on October 7.
The report was published by the UN Special Representative on Sexual Violence in Conflict, Pramila Patten, on Monday. The report expresses that she and her team of experts had found “clear and convincing information” of rape and sexualized torture being committed against hostages seized during the October 7 terror attacks.
The campaign’s objective is to keep the report in the public discourse so that people will not forget its findings.
The aim is to put pressure on the UN to define Hamas as a terrorist organization and to ensure an emergency meeting of the Security Council in order to discuss the findings of the report.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/2024-03-07/live-updates-790648
***
Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) on Wednesday issued a travel warning for Ramadan, warning of the possibility of attacks on Israeli and Western targets around the world.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
***
Hamas has gone to setting up vigilante groups called “People’s Protection Committees” around Rafah late last month. As the Hamas ‘police’ have been targeted by IDF as elements of Hamas, they’ve gone to this tactic to keep the population under submission to Hamas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Yesterday, Hezbollah attacked the city of Kiryat Shmona with about 70 missiles. Iron Dome prevented any casualties. Israeli media: reported power outages in areas of Galilee the attack.
Israeli fighters jets just buzzed the Bekaa Valley southern Lebanon - Hezbollah’s home turf. Locals reporting that low altitude flights shook buildings.
***
Hezbollah media is alleging that Israel had notified “western countries” of a “deadline” until March 15th for a “diplomatic resolution” of the conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. They allege that Israel threatened to “escalate its military action, even if it will lead to a full extent war” if the deadline will not be met
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli media: Power outage in areas of Galilee after being subjected to heavy missile strikes
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
The IDF has arrested the leader and founder of the Balata terrorist Brigade, (Nablus) Mohammad Abu Dra’a al-Zanqaloni Yemash, who has been wanted for over four years.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Ships will have to obtain a permit from Yemen’s Houthi-controlled Maritime Affairs Authority before entering Yemeni waters, Houthi telecommunications spokesman Misfer Al-Numair said on Monday.
***
U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) forces shot down one anti-ship ballistic missile and three one-way attack unmanned aerial systems launched from Iranian-backed Houthi controlled areas of Yemen toward USS Carney (DDG 64) in the Red Sea. There are no injuries or damage to the ship.
US defense official confirms an anti-ship ballistic missile hit the Barbados-flagged bulk carrier True Confidence in the Gulf of Aden - The multinational crew report 3 dead; 5 injured, 4 of them critically. The crew has abandoned ship. An Indian naval vessel has recovered the crew.
This is the fifth ASBM fired by Houthis in the last two days. Two of these ASBMs impacted two shipping vessels - M/V MSC Sky II and M/V True Confidence - and one ASBM was shot down by USS Carney (DDG 64). The incident marked the first time that the Iran-backed group has killed anyone as part of their ongoing attacks on ships transiting the Red Sea.
Observers note that the recent spat of Houthi attacks also correspond with the local presence of the IRGC ship Behshad. It is believed that the Behshad is supplying real time targeting information to the Houthis.
US/UK Air Forces launch three consecutive rounds of airstrikes targeting Iran-backed Houthi terrorists in Ras Issa, Al-Salif, Hodeidah, Yemen.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Kuwaiti-Emirati statement: We stress the importance of maintaining the security and stability of the Red Sea region and respecting the right of maritime navigation
——— FORECAST ————————-
The big headliner is Houthi’s have killed their first civilians of the Red Sea blockade. The recent surge in anti shipping ballistic missiles also appears to be more soundly associated with the presence of the IRGC ship Behshad. It has been reported moving in and out of ‘safe’ zones in conjunction with Houthi missile strikes. With the loss of life on the M/V True Confidence, there may be increased pressure to take the ship out. Tactically that would be a very good move. it would involve intense anger from the mullahs in Iran who may use it as an excuse to ignite a more direct campaign against the US in the region - particularly with Ramadan and associated rise in islamic fervor.
With or without sinking the Behshad, a much, much more severe series of airstrikes involving US strategic bombers is well past due.
Israel to continue search and destroy operations. From recent days, considerable tunnel and bunker networks are still being discovered, needing to be cleared and destroyed.
Hamas et al has been taking large losses in personnel over the past week in N and Central Gaza as Israel maneuvers them into ever shrinking pockets and eliminates tunnels that once permitted lateral movements.
IDF “formal” entrance into Rafah is likely before the start of Ramadan. It is unlikely that Israel will wait a month to begin to clean out that last rats nest of Hamas forces. This will cause islamic fervor to go even higher in response and likely produce numerous terrorist attacks across the globe.
The outstanding question is how much will Hezbollah step up their attacks on Israel in response. The large barrage of 70 or so rockets was the largest to date IIRC. Israeli action in Lebanon may now be on track for a much sooner kick off if the March 15th deadline is real. It doesn’t mean Israel will kick off a ground assault then, but suggests that the global political maneuvering to justify such an assault may be finished. However, the March 15 deadline could be a trigger for more intense IAF airstrikes against Hezbollah leadership and facilities to soften them up for the assault.
I am still inclined to think that they will hold off for a few more months, until things get further cleaned up in Gaza. This doesn’t include a preemptive offensive by Hezbollah buoyed by Ramadan fervor.
Watch out for any excuse to recall reserver units that have stood down as indicators of soon Israeli action in the north.
Mexico -
Not commented much here lately. Big on the scope is the up-arming of the cartels in their actions against each other as well as the Mexican army. They are increasingly employing attack drones and unarmored vehicles in an escalating cycle.
Remember, this is just south of the border folks - and starting to spill over.
Venezuela -
Suppose to be conduction national elections - right, banana republic style.
OBSERVATION - For those living in and around these urban hell holes - I recommend doing what ever you can to get out of there -ASAP.
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So many people are coming to Florida our housing prices are getting high. Our stores don't have their merch under lock and key - we have criminals under lock and key - that makes us more attractive. Citizens leaving democrat hellhole cities are welcome to Florida - but our housing prices are getting higher every day. Might want to move sooner rather than later.
Maybe the US should do the same... Biden's waved in a lot of people from Iran and other terrorist countries.,
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