Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The EU Parliament has approved the creation of a digital “wallet” system, raising concerns over increasing state control of people’s lives.
. EU lawmakers in Strasbourg signed off a European Digital Identity (eID) by a margin of 335 votes in favour to 190 against, and 31 abstentions. The “digital wallet”, which now only needs the effective rubber stamp from the EU Council of Ministers to become law, will contain digital forms of national IDs, driving licenses, banking details, medical prescriptions and other private details of users.
Dutch political commentator Eva Vlaardingerbroek added: “Although they say it’ll be voluntary – just like they said the digital vaccine passports would be voluntary – this system is the foundation for a Chinese social credit style digital surveillance state.”
Like Beijing, Brussels is also looking to implement a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), which critics have warned could be used as a means of social engineering, with even the Bank of England admitting that such state-run cryptocurrencies could be “programmable“, meaning that the government could determine what is worthy for people to spend their money on.
OBSERVATION - This move will only accelerate efforts here in the US for a similar, comparable system.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
In the antifa stronghold of Seattle, pro-hamas protestors shut down the road again during a direct action event in Seattle
See “Terrorism” below RE: pro-hamas demonstration that included a potential grenade scenario.
***
biden regime focusing again on controlling the media -
The White House is demanding that Fox News retract reports regarding the corruption and bribery allegations that have been made against Democrat President Joe Biden and his family.
According to CNN, Biden’s White House made the demand in a letter that it sent to Fox News’s leadership this week.
White House spokesperson Ian Sams wrote the letter.
The reports focus on allegations that the president and his son, Hunter Biden, took millions of dollars in bribes from foreign nations to peddle their influence in Washington D.C.
It has been alleged that while he was vice president, Biden pressured Ukraine to fire its top prosecutor, who was investigating Burisma Holdings at the time.
OBSERVATION - When the govt demands censorship, rather than transparent reporting of issues and in this case potential corruption, you know you have transitioned towards tyranny. So far Fox has not conceded to the WH demands.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran and with Ramadan beginning March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
Still maintaining this warning as the potential for a preemptive strike by Hezbollah has increased lately
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
Times Square is evacuated after a grenade was found in the back of Uber as anti-Israel protestors make their way through New York City preventing NYPD from reaching the device.
An Uber driver turned to look in the backseat after dropping a passenger off on 42nd Street and 7th Avenue in Times Square and saw the explosive device.
The driver notified the police just after 4 pm and NYPD deployed the Emergency Services Unit and the Bomb Squad to the scene.
Anti-Israel protestors were marching through the streets and blocking traffic at the time of the emergency.
The grenade was believed to be inert, according to a police source.
Bomb squad had difficulty reaching the vehicle due to crowds of pro-hamas demonstrators marching through the streets and blocking traffic at the time of the emergency.
OBSERVATION - (HT/TIK) Even a ‘dud’ can cause considerable panic and chaos. All part of an effort to create a level of terror.
BTW - IIRC, Uber should have a line on who that passenger was.
Economy-
The debt load of the U.S. is growing at a quicker clip in recent months, increasing about $1 trillion nearly every 100 days.
The nation’s debt permanently crossed over to $34 trillion on Jan. 4, after briefly crossing the mark on Dec. 29, according to data from the U.S. Department of the Treasury. It reached $33 trillion on Sept. 15, 2023, and $32 trillion on June 15, 2023, hitting this accelerated pace. Before that, the $1 trillion move higher from $31 trillion took about eight months.
OBSERVATION - Hidden from the common headlines, this has the greatest potential for triggering the ‘Great Reset’ longed for by the WEF. BTW, this is affecting all of the nations, not just the US. Debt has exceeded the GDP of the country - meaning that it is virtually impossible to pay off. Debt is exceeding even the defense budget. And as much as fiscal restraint is needed, even Rand Paul’s efforts will be too little, too late.
***
The price of homes has been holding steadily higher, in the Case-Shiller/S&P numbers just out.
YEAR-OVER-YEAR
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 5.5% annual gain in December, up from a 5.0% rise in the previous month. The 10-City Composite showed an increase of 7.0%, up from a 6.3% increase in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 6.1%, up from a 5.4% increase in the previous month. San Diego reported the highest year-over-year gain among the 20 cities with an 8.8% increase in December, followed by Los Angeles and Detroit, each with an 8.3% increase. Portland showed a 0.3% increase this month, holding the lowest rank after reporting the smallest year-over-year growth.”
OBSERVATIONS - Back to the housing market reflections on the economy. The report contains a ton of other details that make my head swim. Commentators and analysts are sifting through this to ascertain if the information will sway the fed to loosen up money by lowering rates sooner than this fall as they are currently inclined to do.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The simple fact that the military put this individual in front of cameras to openly display his mental disorders is both scary and appalling -
During a speech to the U.S. Air Force, transgender Space Force Col. Bree Fram demanded everyone use pronouns in their emails as a way to enhance “winning war fighting strategies”.
When our military places use of ‘pronouns’ above actually preparing to win wars, we are in a very dangerous situation.
***
The U.S. Air Force has released pictures of a live AGM-183 Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon hypersonic missile, or ARRW, under the wing of a B-52H bomber during a training event at Andersen Air Force Base on Guam. This very public showing of ARRW at a highly strategic base in the Pacific comes despite the Air Force announcing its intention to axe the program last year. It prompts new questions about the increasingly ambiguous future of this weapon.
The pictures of the live AGM-183A, as denoted by the presence of two yellow bands painted on the front and rear of the weapon, were released along with a brief Air Force news item about what was described as “hypersonic weapon familiarization training” at Andersen on February 27. In one of the pictures, the missile’s serial number, AR-AUR-005, can also be seen.
https://www.twz.com/air/b-52-armed-with-hypersonic-missile-makes-appearance-in-guam
OBSERVATION - Hmmmmmm. Interesting.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
Trump took three more state primaries by overwhelming margins. Moving forward towards Super Tuesday this week.
Biden / Harris Watch –
Dates to watch -
March 7 - State of the union
****
Biden relies on cue cards for just about everything, but it looks like even this extreme measure is failing. Here in reading from a prepared statement on a notecard about getting food to Gaza, at the 30-second mark Biden twice says we’ll be opening up more corridors to “Ukraine.” Italian PM Meloni looks around the room wondering if someone is going to help this poor doddering old man.
Illegal Immigration –
Crimes committed by illegals are rising higher and higher in the national / local news, to the point where the MSM can hardly hold it back from public view. The loss of the ‘narrative’ is also being reflected in the rise of illegals to the highest concern for voters this cycle. this plays right into Trump’s hand and is apparent in biden’s sudden interest in border ‘control’.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Russian media reports the introduction of the counter-terrorist operation regime in Ingushetia Province. This area is located just north of Georgia and in between the Black and Caspian Seas.
In a section of the town of Karabulak, FSB special forces have engaged in a firefight with unidentified ‘militants,’ according to Russian propagandists.
Russian propagandists write about a shootout with alleged “Islamic State” (ISIS) militants who were planning a terrorist attack.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Colonel Мусаев Гусейн Вилаятович (Musaev Gusein Vilayatovich), commander of the 36th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, was confirmed killed in a HIMARS strike on the training ground Trudivske, Volnovakha, Ukraine on February 20.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. No significant precipitation in forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.
Russian ministry of defense claims air defense shot down 38 drones over occupied Crimea.
The Russian military has temporarily stopped flying A-50s near the front line due to the high frequency of shoot-downs according to British intelligence reports, following the destruction of a second A-50 spy plane, the Russian military has decided to cease their use near the front line.
Ukraine confirms the downing of another Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber. Air Command East confirms the shooting down of a Su-34 fighter-bomber. Unfortunately, only one,” wrote AFU Commander Mykola Oleshchuk. Earlier in the day there were unconfirmed reports of a second downing.
Crimean front —
It appears Ukraine launched a large drone attack, with massive explosions reported in Russian-occupied Feodosia, Crimea. Air defense is active and possible hit the 1st drone, but the 2nd explosion seems to be ground-based and far more powerful.
Russian Territory –
In Yekaterinburg, an electric substation supplying electricity to three defense plants was blown up, Russian media reported. Unknown people planted explosives at the regime facility right in front of the guards.
Outlook —
The Russian offensive will continue to press hard against Ukraine and will continue to make some gains.
Russian forces appear to be willing to risk continued aviation losses in pursuit of tactical gains in eastern Ukraine, likely along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line. However there are indicators that this effort may be changing - suddenly . “For the first time since the beginning of the full-scale invasion – in Eastern Ukraine, everything is clear, with not a single enemy aircraft observed within the past four hours,” said Oleshchuk, the Commander of the Air Force of the AFU.
Lack of A50 AWACS may well be a significant contributing factor to the drop in CAS.
Russia is losing time by any stoppage of CAS, as the deployment date of F-16s is coming closer every day. They will not be the ‘fix all’ for Ukraine, but will make it a lot harder for Russia to force air superiority - even temporary - over Ukraine territory as they have over the past month.
We will have to watch to see just what adjustments Russia will make. Will they go back to the relatively ‘safe’ lobbing of glide bombs, or risk CAS.
One other item that is gaining notice is the alleged presence of NATO troops assisting Ukraine with various aspects of the war. Russia has made claims of striking NATO troop concentrations in the past, but now it seems NATO is close to admitting more direct actions. This could cause serious actions to be taken by Russia.
Europe / NATO General –
Germany Chancellor Scholz has promised an investigation after Russian media published a leaking of a recording of German air force officers discussing support for Ukraine.
***
Cars with Russian registration plates must leave Lithuania by March 11, or they will be confiscated. An exception will be made for cars in transit to and from the Kaliningrad Region; they will be allowed to stay in Lithuania for 24 hours.
***
French President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday stood behind his comments about NATO not ruling out sending troops to Ukraine despite the uproar it caused and the warning it drew from Russia.
“These are sufficiently serious issues; every one of the words that I say on this issue is weighed, thought through, and measured,” Macron told reporters.
Following a meeting of European leaders on the Ukrainian proxy war on Monday, Macron said, “There’s no consensus today to send in an official, endorsed manner troops on the ground. But in terms of dynamics, nothing can be ruled out.”
His comments appeared to confirm a warning from Slovakia’s Prime Minister Robert Fico, an opponent of NATO support for Ukraine, who said earlier that some NATO members were considering sending troops to Ukraine on a “bilateral basis.”
The Kremlin has warned that the deployment of Western troops to Ukraine would make a direct Russia-NATO war inevitable. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned on Thursday that Russia’s nuclear arsenal is on “full combat alert.”
OBSERVATION - If this trend continues, I’ll have to merge with the Ukraine war commentary into a mega category. A few weeks ago the worrisome discussions were regarding a potential attack by Russia against Europe. Now discussions have shifted to actually placing regular European forces on the ground (and not covert special ops as is likely now) in Ukraine. An action that Putin has said would start a broader war in Europe.
***
Soldiers in Europe this week kicked off a month-long, large-scale exercise with 6,500 participants focused on preparing a multinational brigade to defend NATO.
Exercise Allied Spirit is run by 7th Army Training Command along with NATO allies and partners at Hohenfels and Grafenwöhr Training Areas, Germany, according to a U.S. European Command release.
The exercise commenced on Feb. 26 and will conclude on March 27.
Major players include the United States, Croatia, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom.
OBSERVATION - These exercises are approaching Reforger levels.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Heavy air strikes and ground actions overnight, largest in some time.
- Rumors of another ceasefire deal on the table, pending Hamas’ approval
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Abu Hamza, spokesman for the Al-Quds Brigades, the military arm of the Islamic Jihad:
“The first day of Ramadan will be a day of global mobilization in all arenas. We will make Ramadan a month of terror for Israelis, we are sure that together we will make the days of Ramadan historic.”
Abu Hamza also called for terrorist attacks:
“I call on our people in the West Bank and in Jerusalem, come out, attack the military checkpoints and increase the attacks against the occupation forces and the settlers.”
***
The WH announced a new ceasefire deal that is pending Hamas’ approval. Israel has reportedly tentatively OK’d it.
***
More airdrops of food by US and others over Gaza.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
IDF conducted large scale assaults on Deir al Balah and Khan Yunis areas. Palestinians report that over 20 targets have been hit. Gazans also report that the massive bombing of these areas is the largest in a long time.
On Saturday, the IDF targeted Islamic Jihad terrorists and terror infrastructure in the area of Rafah. PIJ is a lesser element of terrorists residing in Gaza and often lumped together with Hamas.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Israel reports that least 10 ranking Hezbollah terrorists have been eliminated in the last 24 hours
***
IDF aircraft targeted a vehicle in southern Lebanon occupied by terrorists who launched rockets into Israel. Targets were affiliated with Imam Hossein Division, tied to Hezbollah and Iran.
Strikes on Hezbollah terrorist infrastructure in Labbouneh.
Overnight strikes on two Hezbollah military compounds in Blida area.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations. From recent days, considerable tunnel and bunker networks are still being discovered, needing to be cleared and destroyed.
Israel continues to shape the battlefield for its eventual entry into Rafah.
Intensity of the fight ebbs and wanes, and overnight’s heavy bombing and fighting is an example. It also suggests that Israeli efforts have been forcing terrorists to retreat into more confined areas and then being able to take them out. Still, this operation will continue for months, as there are so many tunnels yet to be discovered that Hamas et al are hiding in that there are a lot of terrorists remaining to take out.
News is relatively quiet regarding the status of civilian evacuations from Rafah, but early reports from last week suggest that movement out is ongoing.
Misc of Note –
Massive snow storm in the Sierra Nevada’s - considered by some to be a once in a generation event - solves the Kalifornia short term drought conditions. Well not so fast. Kalifornia is a land of extremes and extreme things can happen very fast. Moving fast into spring and warmer weather comes the delicate dance of just how fast will this massive amount of snow will melt.
Commonly termed as a “rain on snow” event, warm Pacific air - Pineapple Expresses - have historically hit the state. These storms have very high snow levels, resulting in much of the snow pack getting melted by the storm (current reported snow levels are now down to 2000 feet). This creates a massive surge in floodwaters that can overwhelm the state’s flood control systems. Here in the Redoubt, a similar event created historic flooding on the Yellowstone River, at levels never seen before. In 1996-97, a rain on snow event in kalifornia flooded vast areas on the Central Valley, causing massive levy breaks and close runs avoiding dam failures. Sacramento was an island, isolated from ground access for several days.
Warning to Freepers in flood prone areas of Kalifornia to make preparations in the event of such a scenario. Get your important papers and items together, pack a bag, prep several days of food - all in a ‘grab and go’ level of preparation. Review potential escape routes to high ground and make preliminary plans on where to stay. If with friends/family, make sure you call them and touch base so they aren’t taken by surprise when you show up at the door. Hopefully, the spring will be relatively tame and the snow melt not triggering massive floods. But you can never count on it.
Appreciate the wording….
Warning to Freepers in flood prone areas of Kalifornia to make preparations in the event of such a scenario. Get your important papers and items together, pack a bag, prep several days of food - all in a ‘grab and go’ level of preparation. Review potential escape routes to high ground and make preliminary plans on where to stay. If with friends/family, make sure you call them and touch base so they aren’t taken by surprise when you show up at the door. Hopefully, the spring will be relatively tame and the snow melt not triggering massive floods. But you can never count on it.
Prepper ping
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Scattered chaos from pro-hamas protests over the weekend. Many blocked traffic in large cities, but overall, nothing significant on a national level.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran and with Ramadan beginning March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Economy-
Heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia, alongside several other key OPEC+ producers, will extend their voluntary crude supply cuts until the end of the second quarter.
Saudi Arabia will stretch out its voluntary crude production cut of 1 million barrels per day until the end of the second quarter, the state-owned Saudi Press Agency said Sunday, citing an official source from the country’s Ministry of Energy.
Riyadh’s crude production will be approximately 9 million barrels per day until the end of June, the announcement said.
Russia will trim its production and export supplies by a combined 471,000 barrels per day until the end of June, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, according to a Google-translated report carried by Russian state-owned agency Tass. Moscow had volunteered to reduce its supplies by a slightly higher 500,000 barrels per day in the first quarter.
OPEC key producers Iraq and UAE will also prolong their voluntary production cuts of 220,000 barrels per day and 163,000 barrels per day, respectively, until the end of the second quarter, according to Google-translated updates from their state-owned news agencies INA and WAM.
OBSERVATION - Provided no major events, both economically and politically, that cause an increase in oil consumption, the prices for fuel should remain relatively steady. Also, because of the dropped productions levels, should the demand for oil rise, these OPEC countries have the tools to increase production in like manner - stabilizing prices.
Notes from Russia’s production are interesting. Russia has been selling tons of oil at cut rate prices to get around sanctions and get money into its sagging economy. It will be interesting to see if Russia holds to their end of the agreement.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
The Court holds that “[b]ecause the Constitution makes Congress, rather than the States, responsible for enforcing Section 3 against federal officeholders and candidates, we reverse.”
Unanimous decision - leftist heads exploding across the country.
***
Polls, polls, polls -
A shocking new Siena College poll released by The New York Times revealed an overwhelming majority — 73% — of Americans say Biden is “too old to be an effective president” and that included even 61% of his 2020 voters.
Former President Donald Trump has widened his CBS News/YouGov poll lead over President Joe Biden to a new high of 4 points as Super Tuesday figures to make a 2020 rematch all but official.
With Americans going sour on Biden’s presidency, Trump is drawing 52% support in a head-to-head matchup versus Biden (48%).
Notably, a majority of Trump backers (51%) say their vote is based on liking the candidate, while a plurality of Biden backers (47%) do not base their vote on liking him (just 31%).
More than 6 in 10 (63%) say they are not very or not at all confident in Biden’s mental capability to serve effectively as president, according to a new survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That is a slight increase from January 2022, when about half of those polled expressed similar concerns.
OBSERVATION - Remember, polls can be used to mask efforts to shape public perceptions. These are sour polls for biden - from a media that staunchly defended him for the first two years in office - at this stage of the campaign they once again appear to be an attempt to convince him to step aside from running. They also convey to the left that if things continue, the voter fraud necessary to overcome these numbers will have to be even more massive than in 2020.
****
Congressional leaders on Sunday came out with a package of six bills setting full-year spending levels for some federal agencies, a step forward in a long overdue funding process beset by sharp political divisions between the two parties as well as infighting among House Republicans.
The release of the text of legislation over the weekend was designed to meet the House’s rule to give lawmakers at least 72 hours to study a bill before voting. And it’s a promising sign that lawmakers will avoid a partial shutdown that would kick in at 12:01 a.m. Saturday for those agencies covered under the bill, such as Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, Transportation, Justice and others.
Congressional leaders hope to complete votes on the package this week and continue negotiations on the remaining six annual spending bills to pass them before a March 22 deadline. The price tag for the package out Sunday comes to about $460 billion, representing less than 30% of the discretionary spending Congress looks to approve for this year. The package still being negotiated includes defense spending.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/funding-government-shutdown/2024/03/03/id/1155771/
However, review of the 1000+ page document has uncovered some disturbing items. First, Schumer has added multiple millions of dollars of earmarks to the bill to get pet projects funded.
One item even more disturbing concerns the nuking of the entire Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve - which, at roughly 1 million barrels, is too small to matter on a national scale - but which could serve as a critical cache of energy in the event of another major disaster. It requires it to be sold and the supporting infrastructure removed. Then, the bill makes it even harder to establish regional reserves in the future - requiring several new layers of red tape. This all during a time when the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest levels since the 80s.
OBSERVATION - At a time when we are increasing the federal deficit at a rate of one TRILLION dollars every 100 days - with no end in sight - they want to pile on more debt and screw up safeguards for the public in the event of an emergency. The latter really concerns me, leaving us vulnerable to complete collapse scenarios and dead in the water.
Illegal Immigration –
Arizona Republicans are advancing a bill that would allow landowners near the border to use lethal force against trespassers.
***
Mayorkas demands the term “illegal immigrant” be removed from language when referencing illegal immigrants..
OBSERVATION - The utter distain this person has towards the US is off the charts. He knows that the senate will not support the House’s impeachment, so he’s free to be as destructive against the country as he wants.
China –
China’s “Two Sessions” kick off in Beijing on Monday with the meeting of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).
The event brings together China’s political elite, as well as leaders in business, tech, media, and the arts.
What are the major developments to watch?
During last year’s Two Sessions, delegates officially approved Xi Jinping for an unprecedented third term as president.
This year, the event is likely to be dominated by China’s lagging economy, which is grappling with slowing growth, deflation, massive debt and falling exports.
One of the most important events to watch will be Premier Li Qiang’s delivery of the annual work report, which will review the government’s accomplishments and set goals for 2024.
Li is expected to set an economic growth target of about 5 percent for 2024 and discuss headline issues from China’s falling birth rate to the future of tech and artificial intelligence (AI) regulation.
OBSERVATION - China’s economy is key - it has been staggering since the wuhan lockdowns and many sectors are imploding. Also to watch are personnel changes and other potential issues such as Taiwan.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Follow up from yesterday. Russian police have killed 6 members of an armed group after a 13 hour firefight in the town of Karabulak in the Republic of Ingushetia (right next to Chechnya).
Logistics –
The head of the Russian defense conglomerate Rostec, Sergey Chemezov, confirmed that the state-of-the-art Russian tank, the T-14 “Armata,” is not being deployed in the war in Ukraine, which the Kremlin has labeled a “special military operation.”
Chemezov attributed this decision to the tank’s exorbitant cost, indicating that the military is opting for the more economical T-90 tanks instead. He underscored the prohibitive expense of the Armata as a deterrent to its immediate deployment, stressing the need for funds to develop newer and more cost-effective tank models.
“In terms of its functionality, it certainly surpasses existing tanks, but it’s too expensive, so the army is unlikely to use it now. It’s easier for them to buy the same T-90s,” Chemezov said.
https://defence-blog.com/russia-abandons-armata-tank-due-to-its-high-cost/?amp
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. Rain and snow arriving towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.
News on a low cycle coming from the war zone. In all probability fighting remains intense on the eastern front. Russian losses continue to be high, with over 1000 estimated to be killed daily - not including wounded. No reports of Russian air activity either.
Russian Territory –
The Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) confirms that the rail road bridge over the Chapayevka River in the Samara Region, Russia, has been blown up. The bridge has been used to transport military supplies from the east to the front in Ukraine. Confirmed by Russia.
Outlook —
Russia may be shifting to a new phase of its offensives in the east and south. Questions remain - will these assaults continue to receive CAS or will the Russian air force pull back to ‘safer’ actions. What will the larger Russia objectives be now that Avdiivka has fallen and the territory gained consolidated? What impact are the heavy losses of men and material having on the offensive and when will any reserves be committed to the efforts.
Any delay will permit Ukraine to resume its standard, stiff defense, - and effectively stall out any substantial offensive gains by Russia.
Europe / NATO General –
Belgian police just arrested 4 Islamists who were about to carry out a terror attack. The arrests were made in Brussels, Charleroi, Ninove and Liège.
***
Leaks of German discussions concerning taking out the Kersch Bridge continue to reverberate in Germany. The release is being viewed by many as a Russian effort to keep Germany from supplying Ukraine with cruise missiles capable of taking out the bridge as well as strategic targets within Russia proper.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas refuses to provide a list of living hostages.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Israel will not be sending a negotiating team to Cairo, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Sunday, after receiving an unsatisfactory response from Hamas on the latest framework for a hostage deal hammered out in Paris last weekend.
The Gaza-based terror organization refused to address Jerusalem’s demand to provide a list of living hostages and to lock down how many Palestinian prisoners Israel must release for every hostage freed, added the official.
Hamas’s position was conveyed to Israel through Qatar.
According to Channel 12, the war cabinet and the professional echelon all agreed that there was no point in sending a delegation to Egypt for ongoing talks given Hamas’s response.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
Overnight and this morning, Israeli army strikes have continued throughout the strip as well as heavy armed clashes.
The Israeli army says it has wrapped up a two-week-long raid in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighborhood, during which troops of the 401st Armored Brigade and additional forces of the 162nd Division destroyed Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad sites and killed more than 100 operatives
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Abbas Ahmed Halil, a Hezbollah terrorist and grandson of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli airstrike against southern Lebanon yesterday.
The reports said he was among the three Hezbollah members wiped out by an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon on Saturday morning.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Still quiet in this area.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Air drops of food continue over portions of Gaza.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations. From recent days, considerable tunnel and bunker networks are still being discovered, needing to be cleared and destroyed.
Israel continues to shape the battlefield for its eventual entry into Rafah.
Fierce fighting last week resulted in hundreds of hamas et al fighters being killed and even more captured. Progressive clearing is identifying more and more underground tunnels/ bunkers being used by surviving terrorist forces. Each day they lose more places to flee to and hide - forcing them into jihadist battles to the death.
Israel continues to prep the Lebanon battlefield and future war thru hitting Hezbollah leadership like the strike on Ahmed Halil. Loss of leaders, munitions, command/comms facilities, rocket launching sites, etc, will hurt them when Israel does cross the border in force. How much will is Hezbollah willing to absorb before being placed in a position where they need to launch a preemptive strike.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Millions of Americans, depressed by the ideological divide in America, harbor a wish that something or someone can bridge this divide.
This wish is understandable. But it is fantasy. The divide is unbridgeable. One might as well wish that daily consumption of a hot fudge sundae will lead to weight loss.
If you still think the left-right divide is bridgeable, it is only because it is too painful to confront the tragic reality of contemporary American life: Today’s left-right divide is at least as great as the North-South divide before and during the Civil War. The only thing that remains the same is that it was the Democratic Party that opposed freedom then, and it is the Democratic Party that opposes freedom today.
OBSERVATION - Commentary covers a lot of the dividing issues of today - issues that have sparked violent protests by the left in recent months. These are issues that by their nature have no middle ground upon which to move towards. Add them to the broader geopolitical divides (yes these in the article are also part of) like CBDC, globalism goals, etc and the move towards a separation if growing every day.
Terrorism -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
***
The FBI is hunting for an alleged Iranian spy who is accused of plotting to assassinate former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and other American officials.
Majid Dastjani Farahani speaks Farasi, French, Spanish and English and frequently travels between Iran and Venezuela, according to an alert Friday by the agency’s Miami field office.
The 41-year-old suspected member of Iran’s brutal Ministry of Intelligence and Security had been recruiting “individuals for operations in the U.S., to include lethal targeting of current/former [U.S. government] officials,” the FBI said.
The alert came as Iran sought to avenge the 2020 US assassination of Major General Qasem Soleimani under Pompeo’s watch.
Farahani had been recruiting individuals “as revenge” for Soleimani’s death, according to the feds.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
SUPER TUESDAY!
****
Massive melt down over the USSC decision on the 14 Amendment. A few examples of note -
Keith Oberman (from “X”). “The Supreme Court has betrayed democracy. Its members including Jackson, Kagan and Sotomayor have proved themselves inept at reading comprehension. And collectively the “court” has shown itself to be corrupt and illegitimate.”
“It must be dissolved.”
Whoopi Goldberg even leaves libs co-hosts on The View STUNNED LIVE on-air after suggesting Biden should “throw every Republican in jail” if Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump
Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold looks like she’s about to cry on MSNBC:
“It will be up to the American voters to save our democracy.”
Congress will have to try and act,” Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-Md.), the ranking member of the House Oversight Committee, told Axios. Raskin pointed to legislation he introduced with Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-Fla.) in 2022 creating a pathway for the Justice Department to sue to keep candidates off the ballot under the 14th Amendment.
“We are going to revise it in light of the Supreme Court’s decision,” Raskin said.
OBSERVATION - NOTE, this can almost be equally categorized under CW2. I realize that Oberman and Whoopi are absolute nut jobs of the left, who’s minds have turned to jello a long time ago. However, they vocalize feelings of the left in general and is echoed by Griswold and Raskin in their own way. They are willing to destroy the constitution and even the supreme court (no longer stacking it but deleting it altogether) in order to get trump.
The effort at warfare by the dems has hit rocks lately. The USSC has also taken on the immunity of a president - to the dismay of democrats. Trumps Georgia trial is imploding due to prosecutorial malfeasance between the love birds. Smith’s classified doc trial is floundering as is his charges of compliance with the events of J6.
One gets concerned as these efforts fall by the way side - how desperate will the democrats get and will they try to initial a lethal means?
***
Attorney General Merrick Garland announced today that the Biden DOJ is working to END voter ID laws.
OBSERVATION - At this stage, the goal is to obtain temporary restraining orders the purpose of which is to tie these law up and prevent their execution during the November elections. There is a lot of support for these laws out there and an overt attempt by the DoJ may not be taken very well by the electorate, placing biden in even a deeper hole popularity wise.
Illegal Immigration –
Biden administration admits to transporting 320,000 illegal aliens on secret flights into the U.S. to reduce the number of crossings.
Lawyers for its immigration agencies claim revealing the locations could create national security “vulnerabilities.”
***
Soldiers from the Tennessee National Guard are deploying down to the southern border after President Joe Biden has continued to fail to take any meaningful action to contain the crisis.
***
A Federal appeals court will allow Texas law SB 4 to take effect on March 9th. The law allows Texas authorities to detain and deport illegal immigrants themselves, without waiting on assistance from federal authorities.
The decision was short lived. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito on Monday temporarily blocked a judicial decision. His order is set to expire on March 13 but he or the full Supreme Court could take further action before then. Alito handles certain emergency matters involving cases from a group of states including Texas.
***
New numbers from the CBP. Per CBP sources, there were once again 7,000+ migrant encounters at the southern border yesterday, the 3rd day in a row of 7,000, putting us at 21k over the last 72 hrs. Still much lower than the highs of December, (10-11k per day), but moving out of Jan/Feb “slow” months. We are teed up for a spring surge. Tucson, AZ and San Diego sectors continue to see the most illegal crossings as traffic shifts away from Texas.
***
The last three years have seen a notable 7300% surge in the number of people migrating from Venezuela to the United States, influenced by changes in U.S. immigration policies. However, this substantial increase has raised concerns, illustrated by an incident involving Jose Antonio Ibarra, a Venezuelan migrant, who committed a crime in the U.S.
The surge in Venezuelan migrants has also triggered concerns about the country’s association with terrorism. The Venezuelan government’s issuance of travel documents to individuals linked to terrorism and its ties with Iran have raised questions about the potential presence of terrorist groups.
According to a State Department report, Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro and his associates engage in criminal activities to maintain their power, fostering an environment conducive to known terrorist groups. This includes connections with communist revolutionaries like the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC-D) and the Colombian National Liberation Army (ELN).
https://lawenforcementtoday.com/challenges-emerge-as-u-s-faces-7300-surge-in-venezuelan-migration
OBSERVATION - I posted in a previous bleat that violent crime in Venezuela had significantly dropped. We see where all these criminals went. Continuing in headlines is violence being committed by Venezuelans here illegally and NYC is swamped by the new gang activity organized by the same groups.
***
The Georgia House of Representatives passed a bill that requires police and sheriff’s departments to help identify illegal aliens, arrest them, and detain them for U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).
The vote for House Bill 1105 was 97-74. This vote came as police charged Jose Ibarra, an illegal alien from Venezuela, for the assault and murder of Laken Riley. Ibarra illegally entered the United States in 2022. Laken was a nursing student at Augusta University’s Athens campus who began her college career at the University of Georgia. She was murdered while jogging on a popular trail on UGA’s campus last week.
OBSERVATION - Recent murderous attacks by illegals - that should have been prevented, is escalating the problems of illegals and crime as the election nears. DHS refuses to act to get a lid on these actions - forcing the states to do so - and the regime then turns around and takes them to court to permit the tsunami to continue unabated.
China –
China has set its economic growth target for 2024 at 5 percent, far below the double-digit growth that for decades powered the world’s second-largest economy.
China’s rubber-stamp National People’s Congress (NPC) officially unveiled the target on Tuesday as its $18 trillion economy is facing serious headwinds.
“We should communicate policies to the public in a well-targeted way to create a stable, transparent and predictable policy environment,” Chinese Premier Li Qiang said as he delivered his maiden work report outlining policy goals for the year.
Li said Beijing would push ahead with “transforming the growth model”, including through tax reform, fostering talent in tech, boosting domestic consumption, removing barriers to private investment, and issuing 1 trillion yuan ($139 bn) in special government bonds.
China’s economic roadmap, which matches last year’s goal, comes as the Chinese economy is grappling with multiple challenges, including a property crisis, slowing exports, geopolitical tensions with the United States, population decline, huge debt and record youth unemployment.
China’s economy officially grew 5.2 percent in 2023, its weakest performance in decades excluding the COVID-19 pandemic downturn.
China’s government announced a 2024 defense budget of RMB 1.67 trillion ($230.6 billion), a nominal 7.2% increase from last year. That is the same % growth seen in 2023, and similar to other recent years.
OBSERVATION - Govt directed economy, didn’t work for the Soviet Union and hasn’t worked for the Chicoms since walking back from more open capitalism. Essentially it seems to me that they are just trying to maintain ground from last year. Indicates that there are still substantial problems undercutting China’s economic foundations.
Phillipines –
China’s coast guard has fired water at a Philippine boat in the disputed territory of the South China Sea.
Earlier, the Philippines accused China of “dangerous manoeuvres” after their coast guard vessels collided in the area on Tuesday.
The Philippine Coast Guard said it was near the Second Thomas Shoal - known in Chinese as the Ren’ai Jiao - when the incident occurred.
In a post on Twitter, a Philippines official said its vessel suffered “minor structural damage”.
He shared footage showing the vessels hitting then scraping against each other.
Chinese state media reported that the China Coast Guard “lawfully took measures against a Philippines vessel”.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Follow up from yesterday. Russian police have killed 6 members of an armed group after a 13 hour firefight in the town of Karabulak in the Republic of Ingushetia (right next to Chechnya).
Economic Impact –
Poland plans to ask the EU to impose sanctions on Russian and Belarusian agricultural products and foodstuffs, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on March 4.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. Rain and snow arriving towards the end of the forecast period.
Ukraine’s GUR intelligence reports that a cyber warfare operation caused a “massive failure” in Russia’s drone program. The agency said its hackers corrupted software used by Russian UAVS, causing their flight controls to fail.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.
Ukrainian air defense shot down 18 of 22 Shahed drones overnight in the Odesa region.
Front lines remained relatively stable overnight. Mostly positional engagements with no confirmed changes to the frontline.
The Black Sea Fleet took another big hit overnight. Russian sources report that Ukrainian naval kamikaze drones successfully attacked the Russian Project 22160 Patrol Ship “Sergey Kotov” in the temporarily occupied Feodosia Crimea region.
5 large detonations were reported on Sergei Kotov from perhaps up to 6 (or more) USVs with at least 4 causing significant damage. Videos released show the vessel attempting to fire at the USVs with no success until the first impact.
The attacks initially caused the Kersch Bridge to be closed, but it has since been reopened.
Avdiivka -
The Russian advance has stopped in the Avdiivka sector.
Crimean front —
At least 10 people detained, including director Rustem Osmanov as FSB launched new wave of searches at houses of Crimeantatars in occupied Crimea
Russian Territory –
Russian media reports an oil depot was attacked by drones in the village of Dolgoye in the Belgorod region –. 100km from Ukraine border. At least two tanks were hit and set on fire.
Outlook —
The pause in Russian’s offensive has some indicators that they have over run their supply chain in part. Russian logistics has continued to be a weak link in their ground offensives. This pause is giving Ukraine time to better prepare its new lines of defense for the next attempted advance. Second, is that Russia CAS has disappeared for a second day in a row. I’ve seen some rumors that the Russian aircraft may have defective countermeasures that is assisting in the shutdowns.
The Black Sea Fleet continues to suffer big losses.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas claims not to know how many hostages they still have under confinement.
- Cease-fire talks between Hamas and mediators broke up Tuesday in Cairo with no breakthrough
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Hamas official Basem Naim said on Monday to AFP that the terror group did not know which of the hostages were dead or alive.
Basem also added that the hostages were held by many terror groups in different locations in the Gaza Strip.
According to Basem, a ceasefire is necessary for Hamas to ascertain how many and which hostages it is still holding.
Continuing the BBC interview, Naim asserted that information relating to the hostages was “valuable” and could not be given “for free.”
https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-790201
***
The United Nation’s envoy on sex crimes during conflict presented a report Monday at the UN indicating that rape and gang rape likely occurred during the October 7 Hamas onslaught against southern Israel, that “clear and convincing” evidence shows that hostages were raped while being held in Gaza, and that those currently held captive are still facing such abuse.
The 24-page report, based on more than two weeks of meetings on the ground, states that there are “reasonable grounds” to believe that Hamas committed rape and sexual abuse during its murderous rampage on October 7, and that there is an even higher standard of evidence to indicate that hostages kidnapped by Hamas that day were subject to rape in captivity.
Israel in response accused the UN of playing down the report and dragging its feet on looking into the allegations, while trying to silence the accusations — something the UN secretary general swiftly denied.
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-20/
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
***
The largest Hamas terror tunnel discovered in northern Gaza, which had multiple branches and was dug from the northern Gaza Strip toward Israeli territory, was recently destroyed by the IDF.
The IDF first discovered the tunnel on December 16, 2023, and since then has been engaged in studying and dismantling it.
In December, the IDF published footage of Muhammad Sinwar, brother of Hamas leader Yahya SInwar, traveling in a vehicle in the tunnel.
***
The IDF said on Tuesday that some 50 Hamas targets were attacked in Gaza in the past day including rocket launchers, weapons storages and tunnel shafts.
IDF captured 1,200 terror suspects in western Khan Younis, including 85 terrorists involved in Oct. 7 massacre, after launching surprise assault on weekend; Israeli forces searching homes & mosques for tunnels & Hamas leadership hideouts
IDF destroyed 20 km of strategic tunnels in Khan Younis, Hamas division in the city was defeated & no longer able to operate as a large terror force; captured terrorists providing actionable intel.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Lebanese media reports that more than 30 missiles were launched from Lebanon towards northern Israel.
Israel responded with an intense series of airstrikes.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Houthi militants fired an anti-ship ballistic missile from Yemen into the southern Red Sea. The missile impacted the water with no reported damage or injuries to commercial or U.S. Navy ships. Between the hours of 3:50p.m. and 4:15p.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthi militants fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles from Yemen into the Gulf of Aden at M/V MSC SKY II, a Liberian-flagged, Swiss-owned container vessel. One of the missiles impacted the vessel causing damage. Initial reports indicate there were no injuries; the ship did not request assistance and continued on its way.At 8 p.m. (Sanaa time), CENTCOM forces conducted self-defense strikes against two anti-ship cruise missiles that presented an imminent threat to merchant vessels and U.S. Navy ships in the region.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Indian embassy in Israel says it advises Indians working in Israeli border areas to relocate to safe areas within the country aftar a worker killed yesterday in Hezbollah attack. One killed, 7 wounded in Hezbollah missile attack on a border town in northern Israel
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations. From recent days, considerable tunnel and bunker networks are still being discovered, needing to be cleared and destroyed.
Recent heavy fighting has caused considerable losses to Hamas et al. There will still be pockets of resistance, but they are becoming increasingly isolated.
Israel continues to shape the battlefield for its eventual entry into Rafah. The big arab / hamas ploy is to try to generate support against a Ramadan offensive. israel is holding it over Hamas head, and Hamas / Hezbollah threatening to escalate. Next few days will tell where this is going.