CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Scattered chaos from pro-hamas protests over the weekend. Many blocked traffic in large cities, but overall, nothing significant on a national level.
Terrorism - Level is HIGH due to impending conflict with Iran and with Ramadan beginning March 11th.
This warning UPDATED as of March 3, 2024
ELEVATED RISK - Potential military action against Iranian assets for the attack that killed US forces in Jordan could result in Iranian terror groups here in the US to activate and conduct terror ops here. These attacks can range from infrastructure destruction (water, power, communications, etc) to mass casualty events or attacks on political candidates - heavily leaning against current administration but also Trump as well. So far the govt hasn’t come out with any warnings but the risk has increased significantly the last 24 hours, based on common sense and stated goals of the Islamist movement/Iran.
Economy-
Heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia, alongside several other key OPEC+ producers, will extend their voluntary crude supply cuts until the end of the second quarter.
Saudi Arabia will stretch out its voluntary crude production cut of 1 million barrels per day until the end of the second quarter, the state-owned Saudi Press Agency said Sunday, citing an official source from the country’s Ministry of Energy.
Riyadh’s crude production will be approximately 9 million barrels per day until the end of June, the announcement said.
Russia will trim its production and export supplies by a combined 471,000 barrels per day until the end of June, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said, according to a Google-translated report carried by Russian state-owned agency Tass. Moscow had volunteered to reduce its supplies by a slightly higher 500,000 barrels per day in the first quarter.
OPEC key producers Iraq and UAE will also prolong their voluntary production cuts of 220,000 barrels per day and 163,000 barrels per day, respectively, until the end of the second quarter, according to Google-translated updates from their state-owned news agencies INA and WAM.
OBSERVATION - Provided no major events, both economically and politically, that cause an increase in oil consumption, the prices for fuel should remain relatively steady. Also, because of the dropped productions levels, should the demand for oil rise, these OPEC countries have the tools to increase production in like manner - stabilizing prices.
Notes from Russia’s production are interesting. Russia has been selling tons of oil at cut rate prices to get around sanctions and get money into its sagging economy. It will be interesting to see if Russia holds to their end of the agreement.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Dates of importance
March 5- Super Tuesday primaries
***
The Court holds that “[b]ecause the Constitution makes Congress, rather than the States, responsible for enforcing Section 3 against federal officeholders and candidates, we reverse.”
Unanimous decision - leftist heads exploding across the country.
***
Polls, polls, polls -
A shocking new Siena College poll released by The New York Times revealed an overwhelming majority — 73% — of Americans say Biden is “too old to be an effective president” and that included even 61% of his 2020 voters.
Former President Donald Trump has widened his CBS News/YouGov poll lead over President Joe Biden to a new high of 4 points as Super Tuesday figures to make a 2020 rematch all but official.
With Americans going sour on Biden’s presidency, Trump is drawing 52% support in a head-to-head matchup versus Biden (48%).
Notably, a majority of Trump backers (51%) say their vote is based on liking the candidate, while a plurality of Biden backers (47%) do not base their vote on liking him (just 31%).
More than 6 in 10 (63%) say they are not very or not at all confident in Biden’s mental capability to serve effectively as president, according to a new survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. That is a slight increase from January 2022, when about half of those polled expressed similar concerns.
OBSERVATION - Remember, polls can be used to mask efforts to shape public perceptions. These are sour polls for biden - from a media that staunchly defended him for the first two years in office - at this stage of the campaign they once again appear to be an attempt to convince him to step aside from running. They also convey to the left that if things continue, the voter fraud necessary to overcome these numbers will have to be even more massive than in 2020.
****
Congressional leaders on Sunday came out with a package of six bills setting full-year spending levels for some federal agencies, a step forward in a long overdue funding process beset by sharp political divisions between the two parties as well as infighting among House Republicans.
The release of the text of legislation over the weekend was designed to meet the House’s rule to give lawmakers at least 72 hours to study a bill before voting. And it’s a promising sign that lawmakers will avoid a partial shutdown that would kick in at 12:01 a.m. Saturday for those agencies covered under the bill, such as Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, Transportation, Justice and others.
Congressional leaders hope to complete votes on the package this week and continue negotiations on the remaining six annual spending bills to pass them before a March 22 deadline. The price tag for the package out Sunday comes to about $460 billion, representing less than 30% of the discretionary spending Congress looks to approve for this year. The package still being negotiated includes defense spending.
https://www.newsmax.com/politics/funding-government-shutdown/2024/03/03/id/1155771/
However, review of the 1000+ page document has uncovered some disturbing items. First, Schumer has added multiple millions of dollars of earmarks to the bill to get pet projects funded.
One item even more disturbing concerns the nuking of the entire Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve - which, at roughly 1 million barrels, is too small to matter on a national scale - but which could serve as a critical cache of energy in the event of another major disaster. It requires it to be sold and the supporting infrastructure removed. Then, the bill makes it even harder to establish regional reserves in the future - requiring several new layers of red tape. This all during a time when the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at its lowest levels since the 80s.
OBSERVATION - At a time when we are increasing the federal deficit at a rate of one TRILLION dollars every 100 days - with no end in sight - they want to pile on more debt and screw up safeguards for the public in the event of an emergency. The latter really concerns me, leaving us vulnerable to complete collapse scenarios and dead in the water.
Illegal Immigration –
Arizona Republicans are advancing a bill that would allow landowners near the border to use lethal force against trespassers.
***
Mayorkas demands the term “illegal immigrant” be removed from language when referencing illegal immigrants..
OBSERVATION - The utter distain this person has towards the US is off the charts. He knows that the senate will not support the House’s impeachment, so he’s free to be as destructive against the country as he wants.
China –
China’s “Two Sessions” kick off in Beijing on Monday with the meeting of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).
The event brings together China’s political elite, as well as leaders in business, tech, media, and the arts.
What are the major developments to watch?
During last year’s Two Sessions, delegates officially approved Xi Jinping for an unprecedented third term as president.
This year, the event is likely to be dominated by China’s lagging economy, which is grappling with slowing growth, deflation, massive debt and falling exports.
One of the most important events to watch will be Premier Li Qiang’s delivery of the annual work report, which will review the government’s accomplishments and set goals for 2024.
Li is expected to set an economic growth target of about 5 percent for 2024 and discuss headline issues from China’s falling birth rate to the future of tech and artificial intelligence (AI) regulation.
OBSERVATION - China’s economy is key - it has been staggering since the wuhan lockdowns and many sectors are imploding. Also to watch are personnel changes and other potential issues such as Taiwan.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Feb 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks associated with this offensive do not appear to be supportive of each other in a manner but are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed. However, as seen in Avdiivka, when Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses as well.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with 7 Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer).
*****
Follow up from yesterday. Russian police have killed 6 members of an armed group after a 13 hour firefight in the town of Karabulak in the Republic of Ingushetia (right next to Chechnya).
Logistics –
The head of the Russian defense conglomerate Rostec, Sergey Chemezov, confirmed that the state-of-the-art Russian tank, the T-14 “Armata,” is not being deployed in the war in Ukraine, which the Kremlin has labeled a “special military operation.”
Chemezov attributed this decision to the tank’s exorbitant cost, indicating that the military is opting for the more economical T-90 tanks instead. He underscored the prohibitive expense of the Armata as a deterrent to its immediate deployment, stressing the need for funds to develop newer and more cost-effective tank models.
“In terms of its functionality, it certainly surpasses existing tanks, but it’s too expensive, so the army is unlikely to use it now. It’s easier for them to buy the same T-90s,” Chemezov said.
https://defence-blog.com/russia-abandons-armata-tank-due-to-its-high-cost/?amp
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures in the 20-40 range. Rain and snow arriving towards the end of the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP – Fierce fighting across several fronts as Russian presses to take advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages and improved soil conditions.
News on a low cycle coming from the war zone. In all probability fighting remains intense on the eastern front. Russian losses continue to be high, with over 1000 estimated to be killed daily - not including wounded. No reports of Russian air activity either.
Russian Territory –
The Ukrainian Main Directorate of Intelligence (GUR) confirms that the rail road bridge over the Chapayevka River in the Samara Region, Russia, has been blown up. The bridge has been used to transport military supplies from the east to the front in Ukraine. Confirmed by Russia.
Outlook —
Russia may be shifting to a new phase of its offensives in the east and south. Questions remain - will these assaults continue to receive CAS or will the Russian air force pull back to ‘safer’ actions. What will the larger Russia objectives be now that Avdiivka has fallen and the territory gained consolidated? What impact are the heavy losses of men and material having on the offensive and when will any reserves be committed to the efforts.
Any delay will permit Ukraine to resume its standard, stiff defense, - and effectively stall out any substantial offensive gains by Russia.
Europe / NATO General –
Belgian police just arrested 4 Islamists who were about to carry out a terror attack. The arrests were made in Brussels, Charleroi, Ninove and Liège.
***
Leaks of German discussions concerning taking out the Kersch Bridge continue to reverberate in Germany. The release is being viewed by many as a Russian effort to keep Germany from supplying Ukraine with cruise missiles capable of taking out the bridge as well as strategic targets within Russia proper.
ISRAEL –
Now the war is in its 5th month.
Dates to remember -
Ramadan begins March 11th.
Key overnight developments -
- Hamas refuses to provide a list of living hostages.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still 105 being held hostage in Gaza.
***
Israel will not be sending a negotiating team to Cairo, an Israeli official told The Times of Israel on Sunday, after receiving an unsatisfactory response from Hamas on the latest framework for a hostage deal hammered out in Paris last weekend.
The Gaza-based terror organization refused to address Jerusalem’s demand to provide a list of living hostages and to lock down how many Palestinian prisoners Israel must release for every hostage freed, added the official.
Hamas’s position was conveyed to Israel through Qatar.
According to Channel 12, the war cabinet and the professional echelon all agreed that there was no point in sending a delegation to Egypt for ongoing talks given Hamas’s response.
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Ongoing search and destroy operations throughout Gaza. Some troop rotations ongoing, bringing in fresh forces.
Overnight and this morning, Israeli army strikes have continued throughout the strip as well as heavy armed clashes.
The Israeli army says it has wrapped up a two-week-long raid in Gaza City’s Zeitoun neighborhood, during which troops of the 401st Armored Brigade and additional forces of the 162nd Division destroyed Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad sites and killed more than 100 operatives
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Abbas Ahmed Halil, a Hezbollah terrorist and grandson of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, was killed in an Israeli airstrike against southern Lebanon yesterday.
The reports said he was among the three Hezbollah members wiped out by an Israeli strike in southern Lebanon on Saturday morning.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Arrests continue in numerous cities in the West Bank. Associated with those raids, clashes break out between arabs and Israeli security forces.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Still quiet in this area.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
Air drops of food continue over portions of Gaza.
——— FORECAST ————————-
Israel to continue search and destroy operations. From recent days, considerable tunnel and bunker networks are still being discovered, needing to be cleared and destroyed.
Israel continues to shape the battlefield for its eventual entry into Rafah.
Fierce fighting last week resulted in hundreds of hamas et al fighters being killed and even more captured. Progressive clearing is identifying more and more underground tunnels/ bunkers being used by surviving terrorist forces. Each day they lose more places to flee to and hide - forcing them into jihadist battles to the death.
Israel continues to prep the Lebanon battlefield and future war thru hitting Hezbollah leadership like the strike on Ahmed Halil. Loss of leaders, munitions, command/comms facilities, rocket launching sites, etc, will hurt them when Israel does cross the border in force. How much will is Hezbollah willing to absorb before being placed in a position where they need to launch a preemptive strike.
It's almost as if democrats know it's all going to fall apart soon. ... maybe someone's paying them to destroy the country... that seems far fetched or maybe the chaos will work for them. I'm at a loss about these choices.